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© GEA 2012 www.globalenergyassessment.org Chapter 10, #1

Global Final Building Heating and Cooling Energy Use until 2050

Energy End-Use: Buildings


Final Building Heating and Cooling Energy Demand Scenarios until 2050



Building Final and Primary Energy Use in Selected Countries in 2003


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000Commercial

Residential

USJapanEU-15China IndiaBrazil

Prim

aryAE

C(TWh)

Building site energy consumption, 2003

0

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%heat

electricity

biomass

natural gas

petroleum

coal

USJapanEU-15IndiaChinaBrazil

Residential building’s site energy by fuel, 2003

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000Commercial

Residential

USJapanEU-15China IndiaBrazil

Prim

aryAEC

(TWh)

Building primary energy consumption, 2003

0

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%heat

electricity

biomass

natural gas

petroleum

coal

USJapanEU-15IndiaChinaBrazil

Commercial building’s site energy by fuel


Total Annual Final Energy Use In The Residential and Commercial/Public Sectors



Final Heating and Cooling Specific Energy Consumption by Region and Building Type


0

100

200

300 Centrally Planned

Asia

0

100

200

300Africa

0

100

200

300Latin

America

0

100

200

300Middle East

0

100

200

300Pacific Asia 0

100

200

300 South Asia

0

100

200

300 Former Soviet Union

0

100

200

300Pacific OECD

0

100

200

300 Eastern Europe

0

100

200

300North America

0

100

200

300 Western Europe


Primary Energy Use in US Commercial and Residential Buildings



Share of Consumption Categories in Total Energy Use



Share of End-Uses by Appliance in Electricity Consumption in Delhi, India



Residential Energy Use in Different Developed Countries



Electricity Consumption of Air-Conditioning in 25 Flats of a Residential Building in Beijing



Trend of Total Building Final Energy Use per m2 in USA and Japan as Compared to China



World Total Final Energy Consumption by Fuel in the Residential (left) and Commercial and Public (right) Sectors



Direct and Indirect Primary Energy Use of the Average US Citizen


0 20 40 60 80 100

Food & Beverages

Restaurants,Hotels

Alcohol,Tobacco

PrivateTransport

Building construction

Furniture, Equipment, Maintenance

Utilities

Recreation, Culture

Micellenaous Goods and Services

Clothing/Footwear

Communications

Health

Education

GJ per capita and year

Direct

Energy losses

Indirect


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 50 100 150

Ope

ratin

g ene

rgy [

kWh/

m2 y

]

Embodied energy [kWh/m2y]

Residential Buildings

Commercial Buildings

Primary Embodied and Operating Energy of Buildings



Annualized Operational Energy Use vs. Annualized Embodied Energy Use for Polystyrene Insulation of Differing Thickness



GHG Emissions Associated with the Purchase, Use and Disposal of Electric and Electronic Equipment in Norwegian Households



COP Values Of Air Conditioners in Japan Over Time


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

'70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05

CO

P Va

lue

Heating Cooling

Introduction of Top Runner

approach

‘07

5.35

4.85


A Biolite Stove



Energy Base Building



Learning Curve Showing the Progressive Decrease in the Incremental Cost of Meeting the Passive House Standard for the Central Unit of Row Houses



World Space Heating and Cooling Final Energy Use


0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PWh/year

Sub-Optimal State of the Art

32.5%

-46.4%79%


Space Heating and Cooling Final Energy Use


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/year

OECD90 ASIA REF LAC AFR

State of the art scenario Sub-optimal scenario


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearNorth AMerica

State of the Art Scenario

Adv NewNewAdv RetRetrofitStandard

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearNorth AMerica

Sub - Optimal Scenario

NewRetrofitStandard

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/year

Western EuropeState of the Art Scenario


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearWestern Europe

Sub-Optimal Scenario

New

Retrofit

Standard

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/YearPAcific OECD



0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/Year

PAcific OECDSub-Optimal Scenario

New

Retrofit

Standard

Comparison of the Two GEA Building Scenarios – OECD90



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearCentrally Planned AsiaSub-Optimal Scenario

NewRetrofitStandard

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearCentrally Planned Asia



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearSouth ASia



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/year

South ASiaSub-Optimal Scenario

NewRetrofitStandard

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearPacific ASia



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearPacific ASia


NewRetrofitStandard

Comparison of the Two GEA Building Scenarios – ASIA



Comparison of the Two GEA Building Scenarios – REF


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

220

05

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearFormer Soviet Union



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearFormer Soviet UnionSub-Optimal Scenario

NewRetrofitStandard

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/year Eastern EUropeSub-Optimal Scenario


0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/year



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearMiddle East and Africa



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearMiddle East and AfricaSub-Optimal Scenario

NewRetrofitStandard

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearLatin AMerica



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearLatin AMerica


NewRetrofitStandard

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearAFRica



0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

PWh/yearAFRica


NewRetrofitStandard

Comparison of the Two GEA Building Scenarios – MEA, LAC and AFR



Cumulative Undiscounted Investment Costs and Energy Cost Savings



Thermal Energy Use in the Global Building Sector


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3520

0520

50 "S

UB"

2050

"LO

W"

2005

2050

"Sup

ply"

2050

"Mix

"20

50 "E

ffici

ency

"20

0520

50 "B

AU"

2050

"Fac

tor 4

"20

0820

35 "C

urre

nt"

2035

"New

"20

0520

50 "S

low

"20

50 "F

ast"

2005

2050

"Slo

w"

2050

"Fas

t"20

0720

35 "B

ase"

2035

"Blu

e"20

0520

50 "B

ase"

2050

"Blu

eMap

"20

0520

30 "R

EF"

2030

"ALT

"

PWh

GEA-3CSEP

GEA WEO10Harvey

Low GDP

Harvey High GDP

WEO06ETP10 ETP08Laustsen


Appliance Electricity Demand in Base Case and High Efficiency Scenario


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh

Television

Standby

Refrigeration

Oven

Washing Machine

Fan

Efficiency Scenario


Average Values of Total Costs by Quality Of Fittings


0

5

10

15

20

25

Overall costs

Energy cost

HighMediumLow

htnom/2

m/oruE

Quality

5.7% 5.8% 4.9%

energy end-use: buildings - iiasa · energy end-use: buildings . 0 20 40 60 80 100 food &...

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