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ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 Essential insight for consumers and suppliers of non-domestic energy efficiency in the UK JANUARY 2015

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Page 1: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

Essential insight for consumers and suppliers of non-domestic energy efficiency in the UK

JANUARY 2015

Page 2: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout.

SUPPORTED BY:

ENDORSED BY:

Page 3: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout.

CONTENTS

SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION __________________________________ 1

SECTION 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ____________________________ 2

2.1. SUPPLIER TRENDS ......................................................................................... 2

2.2. CONSUMER TRENDS ...................................................................................... 3

SECTION 3. SUPPLIER TRENDS _______________________________ 4

3.1. THE ORDER BOOK .......................................................................................... 4

3.2. STAFF NUMBERS ............................................................................................ 5

3.3. SALE PRICES................................................................................................... 6

3.4. INDUSTRY RISK .............................................................................................. 6

3.5. GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS .................................................................. 7

SECTION 4. CONSUMER TRENDS _____________________________ 9

4.1. TECHNOLOGIES & MEASURES...................................................................... 9

4.2. PROPERTY TYPES ........................................................................................ 10

4.3. PROJECT COSTS .......................................................................................... 11

4.4. PROJECT FINANCE ....................................................................................... 12

4.5. FINANCIAL PAYBACK .................................................................................... 12

4.6. MEASUREMENT & VERIFICATION ............................................................... 13

4.7. CONSUMERS NOT UNDERTAKING ENERGY EFFICIENCY ........................ 13

APPENDICES ____________________________________________________ 15

APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY ________________________________ 15

APPENDIX B: SUPPLIER RESPONDENTS________________________ 16

APPENDIX C: CONSUMER RESPONDENTS ______________________ 17

ABOUT US _______________________________________________________ 18

CONTACT US ____________________________________________________ 19

________________________________________________________________ 20

Page 4: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout.

TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Market Monitor – Tracking industry confidence, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) ............ 2

Figure 2: Consumers commissioning energy efficiency projects, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) . 3

Figure 3: Trends in orders received from national customers, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) ...... 4

Figure 4: Trends in orders received from overseas customers, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) .... 4

Figure 5: Trends in the number of staff employed, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) ....................... 5

Figure 6: Trends in sale prices achieved, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) ..................................... 6

Figure 7: Key issues of concern to energy efficiency suppliers, Q3 2014 ......................... 6

Figure 8: Trends in key issues of concern, Q3 2012 – Q3 2014 ....................................... 7

Figure 9: Trends in industry views on energy efficiency policy, Q3 2012 – Q3 2014......... 7

Figure 10: Industry views on management of the wider economy, Q3 2012 – Q3 2014 ..... 8

Figure 11: Uptake of energy efficiency technologies, Q3 2014 v 4Q average ..................... 9

Figure 12: Trends in top four technologies for consumer uptake, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) . 10

Figure 13: Breakdown of commissioned projects by property type, Q3 2014 .................... 10

Figure 14: Trends of commissioned projects by property type, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) ..... 11

Figure 15: Trends in capital costs, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) ................................................ 11

Figure 16: Trends in finance models, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) ........................................... 12

Figure 17: Trends in expected payback periods, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) .......................... 12

Figure 18: Trends in the use of good practice M&V, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e) ..................... 13

Figure 19: Consumer reasons for lack of energy efficiency uptake , Q3 2014 v 4Q average ........................................................................................................... 13

Figure 20: Who completed the survey? Q3 2014 .............................................................. 15

Figure 21: Breakdown of respondents by supplier type, Q3 2014 ..................................... 16

Figure 22: Supplier respondents’ organisation size (no. of employees), Q3 2014 ............. 16

Figure 23: Consumers respondents by sector, Q3 2014 ................................................... 17

Figure 24: Consumer respondents’ organisation size (no. of employees), Q3 2014 ......... 17

Page 5: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 1 of 20

SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION

Welcome to the latest edition of UK Energy Efficiency Trends. Now firmly established as

the leading source of market insight for the energy efficiency sector, we are delighted to

welcome leading global energy solutions firm, Schneider Electric, as a key supporter of this

research.

It is always interesting to consider the impact of wider political and economic conditions on our

sector – energy efficiency does not after all operate in a vacuum. At the time of writing, for example,

it has been reported that UK inflation is now at its lowest level in 14 years and Mark Carney, the

governor of the Bank of England, forecasts that this will dip yet lower before returning to the 2%

target rate. Of particular concern for the energy efficiency sector is that this has been driven by

materially declining oil and gas prices. With reports of oil prices dropping some 60% since their

June 2014 peak and wholesale gas prices nose-diving 30% in the last 12 months, it is perhaps to

be expected that pressures on business and public sector organisations to drive cost savings –

through energy efficiency measures – may ease somewhat (perhaps psychologically if nothing

else). And if this does hold true, it is fair to expect this ‘relaxation’ to persist into at least the first half

of 2015. Against this backdrop the sector is probably well within its rights to feel somewhat on

edge and perhaps to expect some stormy months ahead.

Our findings this quarter appear to reflect this broad concern. Whilst suppliers reported being

broadly supportive of the UK government’s actions in relation to managing the economy, the sector

was materially dissatisfied with its record on energy efficiency. This negative feedback is likely to

have been – at least in part – fed by particularly downbeat trading feedback. Judging by the typical

response, it probably felt like a tough quarter for the industry – and a bitter pill to swallow in the

context of an upbeat wider economy.

Of course this may prove to be nothing more than conjecture as things settle down next quarter,

but there are certainly some systemic economic and political changes taking place and it will be

interesting to consider their impacts on the UK’s non-domestic energy efficiency sector.

Bill Rogers

Green Investment Bank

Tom Rowlands-Rees

Bloomberg NEF

Ian Jeffries

EEVS Insight

Page 6: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 2 of 20

SECTION 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The EEVS/Bloomberg/GIB Energy Efficiency Trends Survey (Vol.9) was

conducted between 12 November 2014 and 14 December 2014 and completed

by 83 UK-based respondents (54 consumer organisations and 29 suppliers).

2.1. SUPPLIER TRENDS

• Following the increase in confidence reported in Q2, this time our Market Monitor – which

combines trends in supplier order books, staffing levels, sale prices and government

action to give an indication of industry confidence – saw the biggest dip to date, with the

result that confidence levels sat in Q3 2014 at the lowest for some 18 months (with a

score of just 33). However, the industry remained optimistic, with the expectation for Q4

2014 much more upbeat.

• Looking at the individual components that make up the market monitor, there was an

almost universally pessimistic feel in the third quarter. There was the biggest decline

reported for six months in local orders, whilst international orders remained stolidly flat.

Caution also continued in relation to staffing, with an increasing number of suppliers

(17%) reporting staff cuts, which was in stark contrast to the previous quarter when no

cuts were reported. To complete the picture sale prices also remained flat, with tentative

indications of price deflation for some suppliers.

• Key barriers for almost six out of 10 suppliers centred on the challenge of winning new

business, followed by customer demand (41%) and competition from other suppliers

(17%), which is not too surprising given the flat sales growth reported.

• Support for government action on energy efficiency has been low and dipped even more

in Q3, with the confidence indicator well below zero (-110), indicating real dissatisfaction

with the government’s approach. For the first time, this result contrasted with suppliers’

views of government action on the wider economy, which showed increased optimism as

the confidence indicator crossed into the black (at 17).

Figure 1: Market Monitor – Tracking industry confidence, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: based on weighted confidence indicators from figures 3, 4, 5, 6, and 9.

Zero represents neutrality. 500/-500 are the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.

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Page 7: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 3 of 20

2.2. CONSUMER TRENDS

• Around 70% of consumer respondents commission energy efficiency projects each

quarter. Q3 saw a small dip, but the uptake for Q4 was expected to increase.

• In Q3, some 82% of projects commissioned included high-efficiency lighting, a new high

for the technology that has consistently seen the broadest uptake. Building energy

management systems climbed the ranks to share second place with lighting controls –

despite both falling against their four-quarter averages.

• A wide range of commercial property types continue to benefit from efficiency upgrades.

Offices have consistently accounted for the largest proportion out of any single category

and appear to have stabilised around the 20% mark. Expectations for the fourth quarter

were roughly consistent with results seen across Q2 and Q3 of 2014.

• In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000.

Projects below £100,000 have stabilised at around 30% with the bulk of fluctuations

resulting from shifts between the £100–500K and the £500K+ categories.

• The trend toward longer payback periods continued into Q3 as the median climbed to just

under five years. For the first time, the 5–10 year category accounted for the bulk of

responses at 39%, whilst the 3–5 year category covered its smallest proportion yet.

Expectations for Q4 suggested a return to the four-year median seen across time.

• The number of respondents using good practice measurement and verification (M&V)

increased marginally to 26% in Q3, whilst those outwardly not using it dropped to a five-

quarter low. However the bulk of respondents are still unaware of whether M&V was used

or not.

• As in Q2, two of the top three reasons for not commissioning projects in a given quarter

relate to timing – based on prior action or planned future action. Neither presents a long-

term barrier to the industry. However, there was a decrease in both these categories

compared to their four-quarter averages, whilst respondents citing higher priorities

elsewhere increased and climbed one position in the ranking.

Figure 2: Consumers commissioning energy efficiency projects, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: shows the proportion of respondents who have commissioned (or plan to

commission) projects in a given quarter.

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Page 8: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 4 of 20

SECTION 3. SUPPLIER TRENDS This section of the report presents the survey findings for the supply-side of the industry

(organisations delivering the broad range of building-related energy efficiency technologies,

measures and services to the non-domestic market). The survey was completed by 29 UK-based

supplier organisations.

3.1. THE ORDER BOOK

Figure 3: Trends in orders received from national customers, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero

represents neutrality. 500/-500 are the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.

Figure 3 above shows that whilst 76% of suppliers continued to see either stable or growing order

books during Q3 2014, the volume of orders for some energy efficiency suppliers came under real

pressure. Indeed, in the third quarter, 17% reported a slight fall in orders, whilst 7% reported

significant falls. Taken together this is the highest rate of declining demand reported for six quarters

and is significant as a result. This result may yet prove to be a temporary ‘blip’ as most suppliers

forecast a return to stability and growth in the subsequent quarter (Q4 2014).

Figure 4: Trends in orders received from overseas customers, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero

represents neutrality. 500/-500 are the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.

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Page 9: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 5 of 20

International orders remained flat for the UK energy efficiency sector with the highest proportion of

responses consistently falling into the ‘remain constant’ category (66% in Q3, see Figure 4 above).

As reported in previous editions, since the small dip in Q1, a slight upward trend has appeared to

be emerging and 38% of respondents reported that they were expecting slight increases in

international orders in Q4, so this tentative trend may yet continue.

3.2. STAFF NUMBERS

Figure 5: Trends in the number of staff employed, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero

represents neutrality. 500/-500 are the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.

Figure 5 shows that the uptick in confidence in relation to staff recruitment reported in Q2 was not

sustained into Q3, with a material proportion (17%) of suppliers now reporting a slight fall in staff

numbers. This contrasts with the preceding quarter when no staff reductions were reported by any

suppliers within the sector. This downturn does, however, bring the broad levels of confidence back

into line within a longer-term trend line for the sector, which continues to remain marginally positive

overall. And on balance, whilst some contraction was reported this quarter, the headline trend

towards cautious optimism does remain with 83% of suppliers reporting either stable or growing

headcount during Q3 2014. This trend looked set to continue into Q4.

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Page 10: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 6 of 20

3.3. SALE PRICES

Figure 6: Trends in sale prices achieved, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero

represents neutrality. 500/-500 are the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.

Figure 6 shows that sale prices may have declined a touch this quarter, although this is against a

backdrop of a peak in prices reported in Q2. The long-term trend towards highly stable pricing is

sustained, however – with the suggestion of some price deflation in recent months – and the vast

majority of suppliers have continued to keep prices unchanged over the past two years. The third

quarter was no exception with 79% reporting no change in prices. Those suppliers reporting an

increase in prices was just 10% in Q3 (down from 23% in Q2) and pricing pressures look set to

continue in subsequent quarters.

3.4. INDUSTRY RISK

Figure 7: Key issues of concern to energy efficiency suppliers, Q3 2014

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: each supplier respondent was asked to select their primary issue of concern

therefore results sum to 100%.

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Page 11: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 7 of 20

Figure 7 shows that the level of customer demand continued to be the key issue of concern for

almost half (41%) of energy efficiency suppliers (a sharp uptick on the previous quarter’s 27%).

Allied to this, competition from other industry suppliers (for this limited demand) was the second

key issue raised (17%). Taken together, these two challenges relating to winning new business

represented the major concerns for almost six out of 10 suppliers. Policy and regulation-related

matters also accounted for a material 28% of supplier concerns.

Figure 8: Trends in key issues of concern, Q3 2012 – Q3 2014

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: each supplier respondent was asked to select their primary issue of concern

therefore results sum to 100% in each period.

3.5. GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS

Figure 9: Trends in industry views on energy efficiency policy, Q3 2012 – Q3 2014

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: the confidence indicator is an input to the market monitor in Figure 1. Zero

represents neutrality. 500/-500 are the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.

Figure 9 continues the trend towards supplier pessimism this quarter with a dip in confidence in

relation to the government’s management of energy efficiency policy. The chart shows a sizable

increase in the expression of negative views in Q3 with 55% considering energy efficiency policy to

be ineffective (compared to 31% in Q2). Only 17% of suppliers were outwardly positive, and the

overall trend line continues to point towards sustained dissatisfaction (a score below zero) with the

UK government’s energy efficiency policy.

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Page 12: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 8 of 20

Figure 10: Industry views on management of the wider economy, Q3 2012 – Q3 2014

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: CI = confidence indicator. The dotted line represents the CI from Figure 9

which is overlaid here for comparison with views on the wider economy. Zero represents neutrality. 500/-500

are the maximum degrees of positive/negative sentiment possible.

Despite the generally downbeat feedback given by the suppliers in the latest quarter, Figure 10

shows a gently rising level of support for government action in relation to the UK economy. Some

76% of suppliers were either neutral or supportive of government action, whilst the confidence

indicator has ticked up and into the black for the first time since the survey began.

It has been commented in previous editions that cautious optimism in relation to the wider macro-

economic recovery (regularly reported in the media) may have influenced supplier feedback in

relation to sector-level matters. For the first time, however, this connection cannot be made directly;

suppliers’ sense of optimism in relation to the wider economy has not obviously trickled down to

energy efficiency issues. Indeed, Figure 10 shows early signs of an emerging divergence in

confidence between the government’s management of the economy and its stewardship of energy

efficiency policy. If this continues, we may expect the industry to be increasingly vocal in calling for

government to do more to support (and stimulate customer demand within) the energy efficiency

sector.

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Page 13: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 9 of 20

SECTION 4. CONSUMER TRENDS This part of the report presents feedback from energy and environmental professionals within public

and private sector organisations (‘consumers’) who are purchasing energy efficiency technologies

and services in relation to the built environment on behalf of their organisations. This quarter’s

survey was completed by 54 UK corporate consumers (of which 70% commissioned a project in

the quarter).

4.1. TECHNOLOGIES & MEASURES

Figure 11: Uptake of energy efficiency technologies, Q3 2014 v 4Q average

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: ranks technologies according to the proportion of consumers who

commissioned a project in each technology out of the overall number of consumers commissioning projects.

PFC = power factor correction.

Figure 11 ranks technologies in descending order based on the proportion of commissioned

projects that included that technology. Q3 saw an interesting shake-up in top-ranking technologies

with behaviour change falling out of the leading three technologies for the first time. Building energy

management systems climbed the ranks to share second place with lighting controls – even though

both scored below their four-quarter averages. Once again, high-efficiency lighting outperformed

all sectors and reached a new high of 82% – surpassing the record achieved in Q2.

Expectations for Q4 show a changing picture, with high-efficiency lighting projected to fall to below

70% and lighting controls narrowing the gap at 55% (representing the biggest increase in uptake

of this technology yet). Building fabric used for glazing, insulation and materials is expected to reach

equivalent proportions to building energy management systems in Q4 – a trend that has already

emerged this quarter as it posted the next largest gain on its four-quarter average after high-

efficiency lighting.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Heat Pumps - Ground Source

Heat Pumps - Water Source

Refrigeration - High Efficiency Unit

Refrigeration - Controls

Compressed Air Equipment

Energy Recovery

Heat Exchangers

Heat Pump - Air Source

Radiant and Warm Air Heaters

HVAC

Refrigeration - Optimisation

Solar - Thermal

High Speed Hand Dryers

Power Management - Voltage Optimisation, PFC

Boiler - Optimisation

Cooling and Air Conditioning

Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

Solar - Photovoltaic

Building Fabric - Glazing, Insulation, Materials

Motors and Drives

Boiler - High Efficiency Unit

Boiler - Controls

Behaviour Change

Building Energy Management System (BEMS)

Lighting - Controls

Lighting - High Efficiency

Q3 2014

4Q average

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 10 of 20

Figure 12: Trends in top four technologies for consumer uptake, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: shows the proportion of respondents who commissioned a project in the

respective category out of the total number of respondents who commissioned a project.

4.2. PROPERTY TYPES

Figure 13: Breakdown of commissioned projects by property type, Q3 2014

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB

Figures 13 and 14 show that a wide range of commercial property types continued to benefit from

efficiency upgrades. Offices have consistently accounted for the largest proportion of any single

category and appear to have stabilised around the 20% mark. As in Q2, public buildings came in

next. It got 9% of responses in Q3, followed by schools and universities making up 12% together

with an equal split between them. Upgrades in the industrial sector fell from 7% to 4% of the total

in Q3, but are expected to pick up again in Q4. Overall, expectations for the coming quarter are

roughly consistent with results seen across Q2 and Q3 of 2014.

BEMS

Lighting - High Efficiency

Lighting - Controls

Behaviour Change

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014(e)

Public building, 9%

Retail –Supermarket

1%

Warehousing and Distribution

1%

Office

Public building

School & University

Manufacturing & Industrial

Retail

Leisure Centre / Sports

Hospital

Other

Page 15: ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9 - Bloomberg Finance L.P. · • In Q3, the median capital cost of projects surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 have

ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 11 of 20

Figure 14: Trends of commissioned projects by property type, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB

4.3. PROJECT COSTS

Figure 15: Trends in capital costs, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

% projects in each band £ Thousands

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: the line shows the cost trend for energy efficiency projects over time based

on the estimated median.

Despite expectations in Q2 that capital costs would decline, Figure 15 shows that there was an

increase in Q3 2014, with the expected reduction deferred to the next quarter. Perhaps this

suggests that pipeline projects are being underestimated in terms of cost, although it could also

simply be a result of different respondents across iterations of the survey. In Q3, the project median

surpassed the Q2 high, reaching £180,000. Projects below £100,000 appear to have stabilised at

around 30% with the bulk of fluctuations resulting from shifts between the £100–500K and the

£500K+ categories.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014(e)

Other

Retail

Hospital

Leisure Centre / Sports

Manufacturing & Industrial

School & University

Public building

Office

0

40

80

120

160

200

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014(e)

Unknown

£500K+

£100-500K

£50-100K

£10-50K

<£10K

Zero

Median

(RH-axis)

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 12 of 20

4.4. PROJECT FINANCE

Figure 16: Trends in finance models, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: the orange line shows the cost trend for energy efficiency projects over

time based on the estimated median.

Q3 and expectations for Q4 appear to have broken the emerging trend we identified in Q2 of an

increase in alternative finance methods. All categories except in-house financing dropped in Q3

compared to Q2 proportions. Whilst third party finance was projected to increase in Q4, combination

finance will fall and in-house financing appeared likely to stabilise at 76%.

4.5. FINANCIAL PAYBACK

Figure 17: Trends in expected payback periods, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

% projects in each band Number of years

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: the line shows the expected payback trend for energy efficiency projects

based on the estimated median.

The trend toward longer payback periods continued into Q3 as the median climbed to just under

five years. For the first time, the 5–10 year category accounted for the bulk of responses at 39%,

whilst the 3–5 year category covered its smallest proportion yet. Expectations for Q4 suggest a

return to the four-year median seen across time, but, with a sizeable portion of responses in the

unknown category, this could change as more information becomes available.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014(e)

Other

Unknown

Supplier-arranged

Third party finance

Combination

In-house

0

2

4

6

8

10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014(e)

Unknown

10 + years

5-10 years

3-5 Years

1-3 years

<1 year

Median

(RH-axis)

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

No portion of this document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners. For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected]. Copyright and Disclaimer notice on the last page applies throughout. Page 13 of 20

4.6. MEASUREMENT & VERIFICATION

Figure 18: Trends in the use of good practice M&V, Q3 2012 – Q4 2014(e)

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: M&V = Measurement & Verification

The number of respondents using good practice measurement and verification increased

marginally to 26% in Q3, whilst those outwardly not using it dropped to a five-quarter low. However,

the bulk of respondents are still unaware of whether M&V was used or not. Expectations for Q4

were less upbeat. However, it should be noted that responses in Q3 were far more optimistic than

those projected in the second quarter.

4.7. CONSUMERS NOT UNDERTAKING ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Figure 19: Consumer reasons for lack of energy efficiency uptake , Q3 2014 v 4Q average

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB. Note: Respondents not commissioning projects may have cited multiple reasons.

The chart shows the proportion of respondents in each category out of overall respondents, not

commissioning projects. Results therefore do not sum to 100.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014(e)

No

Unknown

Yes

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Senior management not bought in

Lack of trust in the industry

Subsidy uncertainty

Wider macro-economic uncertainty

Negative impact on core operations

Uncertainty over the financial benefits / business case

Preference for renewable energy (e.g. solar)

Lack of affordable finance

Lack of resource

Buildings are landlord-owned, so little upside

Energy efficiency has already been undertaken

Higher priorities elsewhere

Future projects are planned

Q3 2014 (negative impact)

4Q average

Q3 2014 (industry neutral)

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

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In Q3, some 70% of consumer respondents undertook energy efficiency projects. Figure 19 ranks

the reasons cited by the remaining 30% for not commissioning projects. As in Q2, two of the top

three reasons involve the timing of project commissioning – based on either prior action or planned

future action. Neither of these present long-term barriers to the industry. However there was a

decrease in both these categories compared to their four-quarter averages, whilst respondents

citing higher priorities elsewhere increased and climbed one position in the ranking. In addition,

tenant/landlord disincentives, lack of resources, and lack of finance all saw higher proportions of

respondents compared to their four quarter averages.

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

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APPENDICES Appendix A: Methodology

The EEVS/Bloomberg/GIB Energy Efficiency Trends Survey (Vol.9) was conducted between 12

November 2014 and 14 December 2014 and completed by a total of 98 respondents, of which 83

were UK-based (54 consumer organisations and 29 suppliers). Historically, the report included

responses from a broader set of European countries, although UK-based data has always

accounted for the lion’s share.

As in Volume 8, we decided to strip out all non-UK based responses and produce a UK-focused

report. This edition is the second in the revamped series which shows time series analysis of this

cleaner, more robust dataset.

Figure 20 shows the breakdown of UK-based respondents according to type. This split is not

unsurprising as the survey has typically seen between 60% and 80% of responses coming from

consumer respondents.

Figure 20: Who completed the survey? Q3 2014

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB

Consumer

65%

Supplier

35%

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

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Appendix B: Supplier respondents

Figure 21: Breakdown of respondents by supplier type, Q3 2014

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB

For Q3, supplier responses were largely covered by three categories; consultancy services (36%),

lighting (21%), and ESCOs (21%). The remaining quarter of respondents fall into just four groups,

resulting in a relatively narrow representation compared to prior quarters. In Q2, consultancy

services and ESCOs accounted for 58% together, but lighting fell into one of eight additional

categories covering the remaining respondents.

Figure 22 shows that supply-side providers of energy services continue to be SME-sized

organisations with around three quarters reporting that they employ 250 staff or less. However,

there was been a significant shift from respondents in the 51–250 employees category to those in

the 10–50 employees category in Q3, with the latter nearly doubling compared to Q2.

Consultancy services

36%

Lighting21%

ESCO21%

HVAC7%

BMS / controls7%

Cooling and air conditioning4%

Boilers4%

Consultancy services

Lighting

ESCO

HVAC

BMS / controls

Cooling and air conditioning

Boilers

Figure 22: Supplier respondents’ organisation size (no. of employees), Q3 2014

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB

35%

34%

7%

3%

21%

Less than 10

10-50

51-250

251-500

501-1000

More than 1000

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Appendix C: Consumer respondents

Figure 23: Consumers respondents by sector, Q3 2014

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB

There continues to be broad representation across both the private and public sectors with no single

category accounting for more than 20% of respondents. The industrial category grew the most in

terms of responses in Q3 reaching 26%, compared to 15% in Q2. Local authorities retain their

leading position with 20% of respondents falling in this category.

Figure 24 shows that the dominant response category continues to be large organisations of more

than 1,000 employees. The next category of 501 to 1,000 employees increased the most in Q3,

reaching 17% of respondents compared to just 6% in Q2.

University7%

Central Government Agency, 2%

Other, 2%

Services & Storage, 2%

Public Sector &Institutional

Commercial

Industrial

Other

Figure 24: Consumer respondents’ organisation size (no. of employees), Q3 2014

Source: EEVS, BNEF, GIB

9%

11%

7%

17%

56%

Less than 50

50 - 250

251-500

501-1000

More than 1000

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ENERGY EFFICIENCY TRENDS VOL. 9

JANUARY 2015

© EEVS Insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnerhip with Bloomberg Finance L.P.2015 and the UK Green Investment Bank plc.

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ABOUT US _______________________________________________________

About EEVS

EEVS is a leading global provider of independent performance information and analysis services for

energy efficiency. Our core service is high quality performance measurement and verification for

energy efficiency projects.

Since 2011 we have evaluated the performance of over 400 energy-saving schemes to the global good practice standard – the

International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP). This impartial and good practice analysis is vital for

the industry’s development – enabling suppliers to prove their performance credentials, whilst giving consumers all-important

comfort that they are getting value for money from their investments.

Our wider information services complement this project-level analysis and aim to support greater market transparency, improving

the attractiveness of energy efficiency as an investment and accelerating the uptake of the best performing technologies and

services.

For further details about EEVS and our services, please visit www.eevs.co.uk

About Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) is the definitive source of insight, data and news on the

transformation of the energy sector. BNEF has staff of more than 200, based in London, New York,

Beijing, Cape Town, Hong Kong, Singapore, Munich, New Delhi, San Francisco, São Paulo, Sydney,

Tokyo, Washington D.C., and Zurich.

BNEF Insight Services provide financial, economic and policy analysis in the following industries and markets: wind, solar,

bioenergy, geothermal, hydro & marine, gas, nuclear, carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency, digital energy, energy

storage, advanced transportation, carbon markets, REC markets, power markets and water. BNEF’s Industry Intelligence Service

provides access to the world’s most comprehensive database of assets, investments, companies and equipment in the same

sectors. The BNEF News Service is the leading global news service focusing on finance, policy and economics for the same

sectors. The group also undertakes custom research on behalf of clients and runs senior-level networking events, including the

annual BNEF Summit, the premier event on the future of the energy industry.

For more information please visit about.bnef.com

About UK Green Investment Bank

The UK Green Investment Bank began operations in November 2012. Created by the UK Government

and capitalised with £3.8 billion of public money, its mission is to help the UK transition to a greener

economy by supporting projects that are both green and commercial. One of GIB’s priority areas for

investment is energy efficiency in the private and public sectors.

“We are a key part of the UK’s efforts to achieve its legally binding environmental targets. These targets require an investment of

£330bn in the UK’s green economy by 2020. To date we are seeing investment in the UK’s green economy at less than half the

required rate. Our business model is not designed to plug the gap through our direct investments alone. We must invest in a way

which demonstrates the attractiveness of the opportunity to others. To do that we must show that it is possible to invest in projects

which are green and profitable – this is our double bottom line.”

For more information please visit www.greeninvestmentbank.com

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CONTACT US

Ian Jeffries

[email protected]

+44 (0) 77 7093 9290

EEVS Insight Ltd

The Euston Office

40 Melton Street

London

NW1 2FD

Tom Rowlands-Rees

[email protected]

+44 (0) 20 3216 4144

Nicole Aspinall

[email protected]

+44 (0) 20 3216 4653

Bloomberg New Energy Finance

City Gate House,

39-45 Finsbury Square

London

EC2A 1PQ

Bill Rogers

[email protected]

+44 (0)330 123 3035

Richard Braakenburg

[email protected]

+44 (0)330 123 3082

UK Green Investment Bank plc

13th Floor: 21-24 Millbank Tower, Milbank

London

SW1P 4QP

© EEVS insight Ltd. 2015. Developed in partnership with Bloomberg New Energy Finance

(Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2015) and the UK Green Investment Bank plc. No portion of this

document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed

or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of the joint partners.

For more information on terms of use, please contact [email protected].

EEVS:

BNEF:

GIB:

Copyright:

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Energy Efficiency Trends Vol. 9

January 2015