energy efficiency & renewable energy – opportunity or...
TRANSCRIPT
© Vattenfall AB
Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy –
Opportunity or Threat?Brussels, 27 May 2008
Lars G JosefssonPresident & CEO, Vattenfall AB
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Agenda
• Growth in World Energy Demand
• Vattenfall’s Global Climate Map
• The Power Sector’s Contribution
• Energy Efficiency can mean Increased Electricity Consumption
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Reference Scenario:
World Primary Energy Demand
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of acentury, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
02468
1012141618
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
billio
nton
neso
f oil e
quiva
lent
02468
1012141618
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
billio
nton
neso
f oil e
quiva
lent
Other renewablesBiomassHydroNuclearGasOilCoal
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Reference Scenario:
Primary Coal Demand by Region
China & India account for 78% of the growth of coal use in power generation and 91% of the growth in other sectors
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2005 2030 2005 2030
Mtoe
TEOther OECDEU27JapanUSOther DCIndiaChina
Power generation Other
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This is not sustainable!
Investment not on trackReduced number of suppliersCO² emissions from 2005 to 2030:
+56%
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Vattenfall’s Global Climate Map for 2030
43 2726252423222120
100
98
203040
-10
-100-110-120-130-140-150-160
-207
-40-50-60-70-80-90
0 1 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192 65
-30
Cost of abatementEUR/tCO2e
Insulation improvements
Fuel efficient commercial vehicles
Lighting systemsAir Conditioning
Water heatingFuel efficient vehicles
Sugarcanebiofuel
Nuclear
Livestock/soils
Forestation
Industrialnon-CO2
CCS EOR;New coal
Industrial feedstock substitution
Wind;lowpen.
Forestation
Celluloseethanol CCS;
new coal
Soil
Avoided deforestation
America
Industrial motorsystems
Coal-to-gas shiftCCS;
coal retrofit
Waste
Industrial CCS
AbatementGtCO2e/year
AvoiddeforestationAsia
Stand-by losses
Co-firingbiomass
• ~27 Gton CO2e below 40 EUR/ton (-46% vs. BAU)• ~7 Gton of negative and zero cost opportunities• Fragmentation of opportunities
Smart transitSmall hydro
Industrial non-CO2Airplane efficiency
Solar
www.vattenfall.com/climatemap
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All sectors and regions will have to contributeGtCO2e, 2030
US + Canada
OECD Europe China
Rest of world**
Regions
Other Industrial*
Eastern Europe (incl. Russia) TotalSector
1.3 0.8 0.70.3 1.7 1.0 5.9Power
0.8 0.6 0.80.7 1.5 1.5 6.0Industrial
1.2 0.5 0.40.1 0.3 0.4 2.8Transportation
0.8 0.5 0.50.4 0.7 0.8 3.7Buildings
0.2 0 00 0 6.5 6.7Forestry
0.2 0.1 0.10.1 0.3 0.8 1.5Agriculture
4.4 2.5 2.51.6 4.6 11.1 26.7Total
* Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Israel, Bahrain, Mexico** Africa, South and Central America excl. Mexico, Asia excl. China and countries included in “Other industrialized” (see previous note)
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What can the Power Sector do until 2030?
1 Carbon Capture and Storage
2 CO2-efficient fossil fuel
3 Renewable Energy Sources
4 Nuclear Power
5 Reduce Demand: further 3-4 Gt reduced CO2e
Approx. 6 Gt reduced CO2e
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Carbon Capture & Storage, approx 3 Gt CO2e
• Three capture technologies seem capable to be commercial by 2020: Post-combustion, Pre-combustion and Oxy-fuel
• All three largely contain known technology but require optimisation, scale up and process integration
• Policies needed: ETS, Demo plant financing, Legal framework for storage and transportation
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Vattenfall’s CCS projects
Plant Schwarze Pumpe,Germany
Mongstad,Norway
Demonstration plants,Germany, Denmark, Poland
Type Large scale pilot plant Large scale pilot plant Demonstration plant
Capacity 30 MW 100 000 ton CO2/a (~35 MW) 250 - 350 MW
Fuel Lignite and hard coal Gas from refinery Hard coal, Lignite
CO2technology
Oxyfuel Post-combustion Post-combustion and oxyfuel
Operation 2008 2010 Ca 2015
10 years of continuous R&D is now resulting in severallarge scale development projects.
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More efficient fossil fuel technology, approx 0,4 Gt CO2e
Pressurised Fluidised Bed Dryer Pilot PlantReducing moisture of lignite from ~60% to ~15%
• Global dependence on fossil fuels is a fact for the foreseeable future
• In addition to CCS, we must use the most efficient conventional technology available
• Competitive markets offer the best incentives for this
• R&D needed to further advance technology
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Renewable energy sources, approx. 1,5 Gt CO2e
Nuclear power, approx. 1,1 Gt CO2e
• Wind, biomass, wave and solar power will experience cost reductions due to learning curve improvements and vendor competition
• At 40 €/tCO2, renewables could become competitive around 2020. Could potentially supply 20% of global power generation by 2030
• Policies needed: ETS, market-based support systems with possibility to trade between member states, stable regulation that gives incentives to invest in power grids
Construction of Lillgrund offshore wind farm, Sweden 2007
• Important contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gases andsecurity of supply
• Volume dependent on political decisions
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Energy Efficiency can mean more electricity
Examples:- Heat Pumps - Rail Transport- Electric Vehicles
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Example: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Source: Eurelectric, 2007