energy efficiency key to survival

7/31/2019 Energy Efficiency Key to Survival

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ENERGYEFFICIENCY

Key to Survival in the 21st Century070822

Donald R. Wulfinghoff, P.E.Wulfinghoff Energy Services, Inc.

Wheaton, Maryland USA

301 946 1196

[email protected]

www.EnergyBooks.com


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We cant predict the future,but


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If our civilization is to survive,

we cannot stray far from thefollowing scenario ...


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THE LOGIC(1) We are rapidly exhausting fossil fuels.

(2) So, our future must depend on non-fossil

(renewable and other) energy sources.

(3) But, replacement sources probably can

supply only a fraction of current usage.

(4) Therefore, we must maximize energyefficiency and energy conservation.


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UNLIKELY SALVATION

Hydrogen fusion

Oil shale / tar sands

Deep hydrocarbons(methane hydrates, oil well refilling, etc.)

Other (As a situation becomes desperate, people

increasingly seek and believe in miracles.)


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PURPOSEOF THIS PLAN

To enable the United Statesto thrive in a world ofexpensive and scarce energy

by using energy efficiencyand energy conservation.


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OUTLINEOF THE PLAN

1. SHOW where energy is used

and where it is wasted.

2. ESTIMATE the savings potential

within each usage sector.3. RECOMMEND the actions

needed in each sector.


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This plan focuses on the TRANSITIONPERIOD, which is the interval during

which we must prepare to live withinthe limitations of sustainable sources.

The transition to energy efficiency

began in 1973, with a flood of newknowledge and ideas. U.S. efficiencyadvanced in several areas.

Since the mid-1980s, progress hasslowed to a halt in all sectors. Thedrive toward extreme efficiency mustbe restarted and managed effectively.


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The good news: a very large partof present U.S. energy use is

fat that can be eliminatedwithout harm to our quality of life.

But,


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NO TIME TO WASTE

(1) It takes energy to develop

alternative energy sources.

(2) It takes energy to achieve

energy efficiency.So, we must make the transitionwhile energy is still affordable.


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Efficiency must stay ahead

of shortages ...

One year ahead of the curve

allows a soft landing.

One year behind the curve

brings catastrophe.


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NO MAGIC BULLET

Achieving energy efficiency

requires many diverse actions. Each action requires its own

participants, techniques, and

economics.

Each action has obstacles thatmust be overcome.


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U.S. ENERGY CONSUMPTION

BUILDINGS

39%

INDUSTRY

34%

TRANSPORTATION

27%


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For Each Energy Source &

Conservation Measure, Know ...

How It Works

Energy Available or Saved Energy Return Ratio Where It Can Be Used

Most Efficient Scale Adverse Environmental Effects

& Other Liabilities

How Close to Reality Is It?


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27% of Total U.S. Energy

TRANSPORTATION

Sector


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TRANSPORTATIONSECTOR CHARACTERISTICS (I)

Most transportation is fueled by OIL.

As a nation, we drive to work. Thismakes the U.S. very vulnerableto oil scarcity or to high oil price.

Transportation has very large potentialfor reducing energy consumption.

No new technology is needed.


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TRANSPORTATIONSECTOR CHARACTERISTICS (II)

The needed changes are remarkably

free of external obstacles. Mostactions can be initiated individuallyor by market forces.

The biggest need is for awarenessof appropriate action.

The biggest obstacle is distraction byineffective responses.


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TRANSPORTATIONMain Transition Strategies

(1) Minimize transportation.(VERY LARGE potential)

(2) Improve vehicle fuel economy.(LARGE potential)

(3) Shift from petroleum fuels.(SMALL potential)


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MINIMIZE TRANSPORTATION

Minimize commuting to work and

school. (MAJOR SAVING)

Minimize repetitive non-commutingdriving. (MAJOR SAVING)

Minimize long-distance occasionaltravel. (MINOR SAVING)

Minimize freight transportation.(MODERATE SAVING)


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Minimize Commuting

Commuting is entirely unproductive.

It wastes vast amounts of fuel andvehicle manufacturing energy.

Everyone hates it.

The solution is to live near work, or towork near home.

Action is individual, entirely voluntary,

and feasible immediately.


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Benefits of Avoiding Commuting

Huge increase of human productivity

Large saving of household costs forvehicles, maintenance, and fuel

Reduced accident death and injury

Reduced respiratory disease

Reduced orthopedic injury

Improved physical fitness


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Avoid Repetitive Non-Commuting Driving

Includes grocery shopping, childrens

activities, dining out, etc. The solution is a return to small,

self-contained communities,

perhaps within larger cities. Action is voluntary, but it requires a

market to motivate development ofhighly attractive communities.


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We know how to do this,

U.S. communities will return toan updated version of earlierself-contained community life.

European walk around towns areadmired by Americans.

The energy crisis motivates usto live as we would prefer.


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Minimize Long-Range Occasional Travel

Includes business and personal travel

(e.g., attending conferences, travel totheme parks).

Such travel is highly discretionary.

Alternatives are available or theywill become available.

High cost of travel will motivatechange without special action.


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Footnote:

A rational approach to energy

efficiency causes some majorproblems to solve themselves,or to require greatly reduced effort.


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Minimize Freight Transportation

The freight system is already

efficient on a ton-mile basis. Energy savings will come primarily

from reduced quantity of freight and

reduced shipping distances. Returning to a culture of thrift will

result in goods that are more durable

and better utilized.


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IMPROVE VEHICLE

FUEL ECONOMY

Economy will come mostly from

reduced vehicle weight and drag,not from new types of engines.

Very-high-mileage (ca. 100 MPG)cars can be inexpensive, safe,and comfortable, but small.

EPA fuel mileage ratings are valuable,CAFE standards are not.


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SHIFT FROM PETROLEUM FUELS

Plan for rational use of electric

vehicles for short-range driving.

But, coal-derived substitutes

for gasoline and diesel fuel area panic measure with severeadverse effects.


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These Wont Help Much

Mass transit

Hybrid cars Hydrogen economy

Coal-derived fuels

Ethanol

Telecommuting

Other


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Summarizing transportation,

The most important action is toorganize our travel and livingarrangements in ways that are

desirable in themselves.If that is done, everything elsewill fall into place with a minimum

of government action.


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BUILDINGSSector


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BUILDINGSSECTOR CHARACTERISTICS (I)

Housing uses 21% of total U.S. energy,

non-residential buildings use 18%. Buildings use electricity, natural gas,

(much less) oil and propane.

Both residential and non-residentialbuildings use about 5 times moreenergy than is economicallyreasonable, on average.


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BUILDINGSSECTOR CHARACTERISTICS (II)

NEW buildings offer major

opportunity to reduce energy use.The cost of high efficiency is minor.

EXISTING buildings offer limited

opportunity for saving energy.Physical changes are expensive.

No new technology is needed,but a few new items are desirable.


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Two Different Worlds

HOUSING and NON-RESIDENTIAL

buildings are separate worlds.The people, education, licensingrequirements, design procedures,infrastructure, etc. are all different.

The technical end results arethe same.


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HOUSING

Achieving Super-Efficiency

1. INSULATION

2. WINDOWS

3. TARGET ENERGY USE4. APPLIANCES


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Housing Efficiency:

WINDOWS

1. Avoid excess glass. It is the

major cause of both heating andcooling costs.

2. Locate glass for efficient heating,

cooling, view, and daylighting.3. Use external shading to prevent

any direct sunlight through glass

during warm weather.


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Housing Efficiency:

TARGET ENERGY USE

1. You live in one room at a time.

So, heat and cool one room at atime. Automate this.

2. Cluster and isolate rooms for

efficiency and convenience.3. Select heating and cooling

equipment for efficient isolation

and low fuel cost.


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Housing Efficiency:

APPLIANCES

1. This is easy. Select

the most efficientpractical models ofall appliances.


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COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS

Achieving Super-Efficiency

1. EXTERIOR STRUCTURE

2. HEATING, COOLING& VENTILATION

3. LIGHTING


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Commercial Buildings Efficiency:

EXTERIOR

1. Architect is the responsible party.

2. No rational doctrine of efficientdesign presently existsin the architect profession.

3. Efficient design requires acompetent combination of

insulation, glazing, and shading.


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HVAC

1. Mechanical engineer is the

responsible party.2. Still struggling to design efficient

systems. (Revolution in HVAC design

was introduced at Clima 2005, Lausanne.)3. Good HVAC design fixes comfort

and health problems, and

minimizes terrorism threat.


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LIGHTING

1. Lighting is a big energy user in

commercial buildings.2. No profession has responsibility.

3. Effective task lighting needs to bedeveloped and introduced, alongwith better control of lighting

using present methods.


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BUILDINGS

Vision of the Future (I)

Building types remain unchanged.

Internal layout and usage arelargely unaffected.

Exterior appearance is different. Health problems are minimized.

Comfort problems are minimized.


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BUILDINGS

Vision of the Future (II)

Fire resistance is improved.

Buildings last longer.

Large buildings are much more

resistant to biological andchemical terrorism.

Design is highly standardized.


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OBSTACLES

to Buildings Efficiency (I)

Expectations for efficiency are

much too low. (The realistic goalis 500% increase in efficiency.)

The architect profession resistsenergy efficiency for competitiveand social reasons.


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OBSTACLES

to Buildings Efficiency (II)

Competent professional education

in building design does not exist. Organized knowledge of building

efficiency is spreading too slowly.

Advocacy of energy efficiencyby organizations is ineffectualor counterproductive.


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DISTRACTIONS

from Buildings Efficiency

Zero energy buildings

(buildings as platforms forrenewable energy generators)

Green buildings

(design by nostrums)

Short-list conservation(low fruit, no cost, etc.)


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Building Owner: Mr. Wulfinghoff,please give us a short list of ways

to make buildings efficient.

Wulfinghoff: If I could do that,

I wouldnt have spent 20 years

writing a book about energyefficiency that weighs 8 pounds.


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OVERCOMING the OBSTACLES

Enforcement of energy efficiency inthe building codes. Only then is itpossible to educate designers andbuilders about energy efficiency.

Litigation against designers and

builders who ignore efficiency codesand standards of care.

Investor and owner demand for

rationally efficient buildings.


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Energy Efficiency Codes

Level the economic playing field, makinginvestors willing to undertake the additionalcosts of efficient buildings.

Create a constituency for energy efficiency.

Educate existing designers.

Provide a syllabus for training futuredesigners.

Standardize building design, making

performance predictable and lowering cost.


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Litigation & Prosecution

Every inefficient building designedsince the 1970s involves a tort,a crime, or both.

The evidence trail is overt and easilyaccessible.

Culpability is clear. Efficiency codes,Executive Orders, contractualrequirements, and standards of care

were violated at the time of design.


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Investor and Owner Appeal

Buildings are the worlds largest

durable commodity market. The entire stock of existing buildings

is obsolete, and it must be either

replaced or upgraded. The financial rate of return for

optimized new buildings is very high.

S i i b ildi


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Summarizing buildings,

Buildings comprise the largest partof civilizations potential forsurviving with limited energy.

The obstacles to efficiency areprofessional, not technical.

Both owner/investor pressure andaggressive policing are needed.


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INDUSTRYSector


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INDUSTRY

SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS

Industry uses electricity, natural gas,

(much less) oil and propane. Much energy use is process-specific.

Energy saving potential is moderate.

Major savings have already beenachieved, but progress has halted.

Better technology is a limited issue.


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INDUSTRY

Main Transition Strategies

Increase the life of products.

Optimize recycling.

Improve industrial processes,

where possible.

Educate managers to integrateefficiency into plant management.

Summarizing industry


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Summarizing industry,

The largest reductions of industrialenergy consumption will come fromreturning to a culture of thrift.

Improving process efficiencyrequires engineering advances.

Improving non-process efficiencyrequires a better doctrine of plantmanagement.


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The U.S. and the WORLD

The rest of the world faces the sameenergy challenge as the U.S.

The U.S. cannot solve its energyproblem individually. The solutionmust be worldwide.

The U.S. can compete for remainingfossil fuels only by paying the worldprice, while using diplomacy to

protect access to the world market.


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21st

century energy SUPPLY:

By mid-century, total energy

supply at viable prices may bedown to 20% of current supply.

This estimate is very approximate. Reasonablescenarios could make it higher or lower.


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21

st

century energy NEED:

Extreme efficiency may allow

society to function with about20% of current consumption.

This estimate is more reliable technically.The main uncertainty is population.


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20% for both estimates ...

Its going to be a close call.


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The world on the other side of the transition

will be a different place. If the transition is

successful, the U.S. will still have freedom,prosperity, and the pursuit of happiness.

But, some habits and activities will be gone,

replaced by new ones. Old strengths andwisdom will be rediscovered.

The United States is distinguished by its

adaptability and resourcefulness. Thesecharacteristics will be essential for a successful

transition to the second half of this century.

energy efficiency key to survival

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