energy efficiency in the eu15: achievements and prospects wolfgang eichhammer fraunhofer institute...

Fraunhofer

ISI

InstitutSystemtechnik undInnovationsforschung

Energy Efficiency in the EU15: Achievements and Prospects

Wolfgang Eichhammer

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research

www.isi.fraunhofer.de

Karlsruhe, Germany

“Conference on the Future of Energy in Enlarged Europe:

Perspectives for R&D Co-operation“

A contribution within the context of the Weimar Triangle

Warsaw, 7- 8th October 2004

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ISI


Energy Efficiency - The sextuple dividend

Reduction of environmental burden (CO2, local pollution)

Effects on employment/competitiveness

Supply security: protection to oil/gas price shocks

Economy: protection to “oil/pas price intoxication” (Yoyo in energy prices; high energy prices in slowly recovering economy)

Savings on oil stocks (90 days provision)

Energy Efficiency: Trigger for Innovation

“The double dividend”

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Energy Efficiency

Where we are and our policies

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Energy efficiency is improving … until 1998 : almost Energy efficiency is improving … until 1998 : almost 10% since 1990: main improvement in industry with 10% since 1990: main improvement in industry with 17% against, 6% in transport and 5% in households17% against, 6% in transport and 5% in households;; slow-down since 1998slow-down since 1998

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Ind

ex

industry households transport total

Source: Odyssee Database

www.odyssee-indicators.org



ODEX

Odyssee Bottom-up Index for Energy Efficiency

"Dow Jones for Energy Efficiency"

ODEX

Odyssee Bottom-up Index for Energy Efficiency

"Dow Jones for Energy Efficiency"

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Change in Efficiency Standards of New Dwellings: Specific Consumption Index

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1974 1974 1982 1988 2001

France

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1985 1985 1987 2002

Finland

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1978 1978 1985 1995 2002

Germany

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1990 1990 1995 2003/05

UK

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1976 1976 1980 1990

Sweden

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1985 1995 2005

Denmark

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1974 1974 1982 1988 2001

France

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1985 1985 1987 2002

Finland

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1978 1978 1985 1995 2002

Germany

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1990 1990 1995 2003/05

UK

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1976 1976 1980 1990

Sweden

0

20

40

60

80

100

<1985 1995 2005

Denmark





Some of our most performant national policies

Some of our most performant national policies

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Consumption for heating in the EU: per dwelling , stable on average , but decrease per m2 ; regular reduction for new dwellings because of re-enforcement in standards

0,40,50,60,70,80,9

11,11,21,31,4

toe/

dw

elli

ng

0

5

10

15

20

25

koe/

m2

new dwellings average koe/m2

•Recent revisions in 8 countries Italy (94), Germany (95 & 02), Denmark(95)

Netherlands (95, 98 & 00), Ireland (97), Austria France (01), Greece (95 & 01)

•Planned reinforcement in 3 countries Finland (03), UK , France and Denmark (05)

On average , 4 revisions since 1973 in most countries with an energy saving of 60%

for dwellings built now compared to 1973

•But limited impact on average unit

consumption: in 1999, dwellings built since 1990 only represent 8% of total heating consumption

larger dwellings offset half of the reduction in consumption per m2





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Limits to policy: Impact of hypothetical building regulation

every 6 years on stock (lifestyle !)

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Un

it C

on

sum

pti

on

per

bu

ild

ing

(to

e/d

wel

lin

g).

New stock: -82%

Existing stock: -29%

Existing stock with 0.5%/a increase in heated surfaces (observed): -16%

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ISI


Cold Appliances Market by Label Class (EU)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

A++ A+ A B C D E F G

Labelling Class

% o

f M

ark

et

1990-1992 (GEA)

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2002

2003 (Jan-Apr)

Source: Waide (2000), GfK (2003)

Source: MURE database (www.mure2.com)

Policy Impact ! Not autonomousPolicy Impact ! Not autonomous

Success of a consistent and comprehensive policy, of an innovative and proactive

industry, as well as of receptive consumers

Success of a consistent and comprehensive policy, of an innovative and proactive

industry, as well as of receptive consumers

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Energy Efficiency Index: I Energy Efficiency Class ....... I < 30 A++ 30 I < 42 A+ 42 I < 55 A

55 I < 75 B

75 I < 90 C 90 I < 100 D

100 I < 110 E

110 I < 125 F 125 I G

Average Index

63,565,4

74,979,5

85,088,290,091,499,1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990-1992(GEA)

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2002 2003 (Jan-Apr)

Taking into account lifestyle changes (larger refrigerators) this was still the equivalent of half the EU wind industry and several large nuclear plants. In the next 15 years this can be doubled !

Taking into account lifestyle changes (larger refrigerators) this was still the equivalent of half the EU wind industry and several large nuclear plants. In the next 15 years this can be doubled !

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Household electricity consumption by type of appliances: successful energy policies versus

social trends

0

50

100

150

200

Largeappliances

Lighting Smallappliances

TWh

1985 1990 2001

0

50

100

150

200

Largeappliances

Lighting Smallappliances

TWh

1985 1990 2001 53%

21%

26%

51%

19%

30%

45%

19%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Large appliances Lighting Small appliances

1985 1990 2001

53%

21%

26%

51%

19%

30%

45%

19%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Large appliances Lighting Small appliances

1985 1990 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

TW

h

1985 1990 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

TW

h

1985 1990 2001Source: Odyssee Database 2002

Source: Odyssee Database 2002

The race between equipment levels and policy

The race between equipment levels and policy

Labelling Policies

In particular ICT

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Message 1: Successful but….

We were quite successful in improving energy efficiency in the fields where we had coherent policies.

However, behaviour/rebound effects will destroy in many occasions our efforts

Two strategies: either be even more stronger in the technology field or tackle behaviour

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Message from a recent evaluation of energy efficiency measures in the residential sector (EU15)

Source: MURE

www.mure2.com

Source: MURE

www.mure2.com

Summary 1990/2000 2000/2010 2000/2025PJ Mt CO2 PJ Mt CO2 PJ Mt CO2

Level 1 (Odyssee) 468,1 35,2Level 2 (Measure evaluations) 559,4 43,3 728,5 51,3Level 3 (Measure simulation, EU10) 524,0 44,2 442,5 37,4 1013,4 85,6Scaling Level 3 to EU15 with Energy Consumption 2000 571,1 48,1 482,2 40,6 1104,4 93,1Economic Potential Scenario 1540,9 116,8 3749,4 280,4"1% target for residential sector" 1254,6 70,1 1430,9 3577,3

What we have achieved in the past decade: 500-600 PJ

What we have achieved in the past decade: 500-600 PJ

What we can achieve in an economic manner:

1500 PJ

What we can achieve in an economic manner:

1500 PJ

What we have to achieve according to the proposed EU Energy Service

Directive: 1400 PJ

What we have to achieve according to the proposed EU Energy Service

Directive: 1400 PJ

What we will achieve in the present decade: 500-700 PJ

What we will achieve in the present decade: 500-700 PJ

We need to double our efforts in energy efficiency in the present and in particular the

future decades not taking in account behaviour and living standard !

We need to double our efforts in energy efficiency in the present and in particular the

future decades not taking in account behaviour and living standard !

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Message 2: "Lead policy" measure needed

We need a "lead policy" measure for the field of energy efficiency that can provide us with targets for the next decades similar to the RES-E Directive for renewables

The proposed EU Directive for Energy Service (1% improvement per year beyond autonomous improvement) has the potential for such a "Lead policy" measure and needs a strong political support in all EU member states.

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Armory Lovin‘s Bathroom Plug (today)

How we use energy todayHow we use energy today

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Armory Lovin‘s bathroom plug 2080

Product/Material Strategies NanotechnologiesBiotechnologies

…..2080

Energy Efficiency R&D 2040

No-regret potentials 2020

Current efficiency level

The Future

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Message 3: Coherent agenda neededWe need a coherent R&D agenda with long-term targets and intermediate milestones beyond FP6 bundling more strongly advances in other fields such as nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, material sciences and efficiency into the improvement of energy efficiency.

This agenda needs to be determined together with the private sector (transport sector, industrial sector, products for the residential sector, supply industries)

We need more energy efficiency technology platforms beyond the steel technology platform proposed currently, based on our problems: e.g "how to reduce consumption levels in existing buildings to the level of new buildings without 50 cm of insulation", "how to reduce stand-by consumption to close to zero", "how to reduce the weight of our cars to the half" (benefit also to hydrogen, electric cars, biofuel cars,…)

We need to communicate the results of this agenda more regularly and more officially to the public: renewables and hydrogen have by far a better PR-Strategy than energy efficiency !

We need to consider behavioural aspects in addition to technology aspects

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White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D

-The 2000 Watt Society

If you want to build a ship,don ’t drum up the men to gather

wood,divide the work and give orders.

Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea.

Antoine de Saint Exupéry

Source: White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D

CEPE (Switzerland)

http://www.cepe.ethz.ch/publications/list.htm#4

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Long-term energy saving potentials industrial sector:

Distance of current energy consumption to

minimum energy consumption

16,10

6,70

3,803,00 2,50 2,40 2,30 1,90 1,50

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Al2O3 NH3 CH3OH P C2H2 (I) Na2CO3 C2H2 (II) CaC2 Cl2

Rat

io

of

curr

ent

spec

ific

en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n t

o m

inim

al e

ner

gy

con

sum

pti

on

fro

m c

hem

ical

eq

uat

ion

Alumina

Chlorine

Acethylene II

Phosphor

Methanole

Ammonia

Cl2

from CaOfrom CH4

Calcium Carbide

CaC2

CaC2CaC2CaC2

CH3OH Na2CO3 C2H2 (II)

Acethylene I

SodiumCarbonate

C2H2 (I)

16,10

6,70

3,803,00 2,50 2,40 2,30 1,90 1,50

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Al2O3 NH3 CH3OH P C2H2 (I) Na2CO3 C2H2 (II) CaC2 Cl2

Rat

io

of

curr

ent

spec

ific

en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n t

o m

inim

al e

ner

gy

con

sum

pti

on

fro

m c

hem

ical

eq

uat

ion

Alumina

Chlorine

Acethylene II

Phosphor

Methanole

Ammonia

Cl2

from CaOfrom CH4

Calcium Carbide

CaC2

CaC2CaC2CaC2

CH3OH Na2CO3 C2H2 (II)

Acethylene I

SodiumCarbonate

C2H2 (I)

2,40

4,004,30

6,507,10

9,50

10,90

12,60

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Cu (Fe)SR+OS Pb (Fe)BF+OS (Fe3C)SR Zn (Fe3C)BF Alprim

Rat

io

of

curr

ent

spec

ific

en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n t

o m

inim

al e

ner

gy

con

sum

pti

on

fro

m c

hem

ical

eq

uat

ion

Copper

Primary Aluminium

Zinc

Pig Iron(smelt reduction)

Steel

Lead

Steel

(Fe)SR+OS (Fe)BF+OS (Fe3C)SR

(Fe3C)BF

Smelt reduction + oxygen steelBlast furnace + oxygen steel

Pig Iron(blast furnace)

2,40

4,004,30

6,507,10

9,50

10,90

12,60

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Cu (Fe)SR+OS Pb (Fe)BF+OS (Fe3C)SR Zn (Fe3C)BF Alprim

Rat

io

of

curr

ent

spec

ific

en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n t

o m

inim

al e

ner

gy

con

sum

pti

on

fro

m c

hem

ical

eq

uat

ion

Copper

Primary Aluminium

Zinc

Pig Iron(smelt reduction)

Steel

Lead

Steel

(Fe)SR+OS (Fe)BF+OS (Fe3C)SR

(Fe3C)BF

Smelt reduction + oxygen steelBlast furnace + oxygen steel

Pig Iron(blast furnace)

The task is difficult…The task is difficult…

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QSL-Process for the smelting of lead

Classical lead shaft furnaceClassical lead shaft furnaceQSL processQSL process

…but not impossible…but not impossible

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Lead Smelting (QSL-Process in Germany)

The essential energetical progress of the new process consisted in:

the unification of two previously separate process steps in one reaction vessel, of which one is exothermal (lead roasting), the other endothermal (lead reduction).

in the reduction of recirculated raw materials in the sinter step

In the demonstration phase 40 % energy savings were achieved, in the industrial application over 25 %. Investment costs were lowered by about 20 %.

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Applications of nanotechnology for the energy sector

Energy Generation

Energy Transfor- mation

Energy Storage

Efficiency Im-provement of conventional technology

Nanoparticles Dye Solar Cells Metal oxides/metals Fuel Additives

Carbon Nano-tubes and Fullerenes

Organic Solar Cells

Catalysts Hydrogen Storage

Supercondenser

Nanocomposites / Nanoceramics

Nanostructured Membranes and Electrodes for Fuel Cells, Bat-teries and Accu-mulators

Nanostructured Membranes and Electrodes for Fuel Cells, Batteries and Accumulators

Nanocermics and Coatings

Magnetic Materi-als

OLEDs for Dis-plays and Light-ing

Super Conducting Materials

Super Con-ducting Ca-bles

Super Conducting Storage Coils

Energy Generation

Energy Transfor- mation

Energy Storage

Efficiency Im-provement of conventional technology

Nanoparticles Dye Solar Cells Metal oxides/metals Fuel Additives

Carbon Nano-tubes and Fullerenes

Organic Solar Cells

Catalysts Hydrogen Storage

Supercondenser

Nanocomposites / Nanoceramics

Nanostructured Membranes and Electrodes for Fuel Cells, Bat-teries and Accu-mulators

Nanostructured Membranes and Electrodes for Fuel Cells, Batteries and Accumulators

Nanocermics and Coatings

Magnetic Materi-als

OLEDs for Dis-plays and Light-ing

Super Conducting Materials

Super Con-ducting Ca-bles

Super Conducting Storage Coils

Source: ESTIR Project (Fraunhofer ISI)

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Supercapacitors to avoid

oversizing of car engines

Source: White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D

CEPE (Switzerland)

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Looking beyond present savings: More economic flat

screens…rethinking our products in the light of energy efficiency right from the R&D

stage

Source:

Science et Vie 2004

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Application of biotechnological processes to energy supply and demand

Production of energy sources from various raw materials and sources: Established processes use biomass in order to generate hydrogen, ethanol, methanol, and acetone with butanol and ethanol (ABE). Innovative process optimization focus on the use of cheaper carbon sources and aim on the improvement of strains and strain metabolism by genetic engineering. A third area for innovation is the improved efficiency of product recovery.

Biogas and biomass for energy generation employ biotechnological techniques as well, however at present there are little efforts for high-tech improvement.

Application of photosynthesis for energy generation. At present this process is pure basic research. According to experts industrial applications are expected to have a long term perspective for commercialization.

Bioleaching: extraction of specific metals from their ores through the use of bacteria (relevant for low-concentration ores, e.g. for copper.

Source: ESTIR Project (Fraunhofer ISI)

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The long-term improvement of energy efficiency has many legs...

Direct efficiency improvement in the chain from energy supply to use

Process substitution

Lowering the demand for useful energy

Recycling of energy-intensive materials

Reduce the specific material consumption (”Dematerialisation”)

Product recycling and lifetime extension/ intensification of product use

Use of biogenic raw materials

Energy

Material

See also: Dematerialisation less clear than it seemswww.vhknet.com/download/dematerialisation.pdf

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Informal Environment Council - Dutch EU presidency (16-18 July 2004)

How to make eco-efficiency innovations happen in practice

How to make eco-efficiency innovations happen in practice

Objective: emphasise on strategic chances for European industry: Eco-efficiency as main driver for creating a highly innovative European industry. In a Porter perspective, Europe has a unique possibility to create jobs and strong (new) industries for the future by emphasising eco-efficiency as a key drive.

Scoping: Use eco-efficiency as a key motor of European competitiveness

Concrete goal:

Development of eco-efficient systems - with the aim of building global leadership in new industrial markets (including the service economy). Broader than just environmental technologies

More focus on industry (putting eco-efficiency into action) and high level policy makers (supportive instruments)

Chose investments in eco-efficient systems that are (or can become) highly competitive in the global market

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Message 4: Innovation supporting policy context

Innovations for energy efficiency can only grow in a steady policy environment providing strong incentives and clear messages (unless the oil exporting countries and oil price speculation are doing the job for us). High energy prices (but lower energy cost for the consumer at the end!) are unfortunately part of such an innovation supporting context.

See also: Clean, Clever and CompetitivePresidency conclusions Informal Environment Council 16-18 July 2004www2.vrom.nl/docs/internationaal/IEC_Conclusions.pdf

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Potential for energy efficiency

improvement in New

EU Members

(1)

Source: www.ceec-indicators.org

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Potential for energy efficiency

improvement in New

EU Members

(2)

Source: www.ceec-indicators.org

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Message 5: Seize opportunities

The new EU Member States have through the renewal of their production tools as well as the car and building stocks the chance to take energy efficiency improvement very seriously into account. Once this moment is over, the chance will only come back …30-100 years later

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Energy Efficiency R&D Fields for Co-operation in the Weimar Triangle and beyond

Setting a common and comprehensive European agenda for energy efficiency based on a White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D aiming at a 1% improvement for energy efficiency per year for at least half of this century. This strategy should include and bundle in particular advances for energy efficiency in the fields of nanotechnologies, biotechnologies and material sciences.

Supporting "Lead Policies" such as the proposed Energy Service Directive that pave the way for short as well as long-term energy efficiency improvements.

Creating, in co-operation with industrial actors, innovation clusters /centres for excellence / technology platforms in the field of energy efficiency

Investigating behavioural aspects of efficient use of energy

Extending monitoring and evaluation tools for energy efficiency such as ODYSSEE (www.odyssee-indicators.org) and MURE (www.mure2.com) to New Member States (partially ongoing)

energy efficiency in the eu15: achievements and prospects wolfgang eichhammer fraunhofer institute...

Documents

energy efficiencychange

future of energy

successful energy policies

odyssee databasewww

energy efficiencydow

policiesenergy efficiency

average unit consumption

social trends source