energy and renewables muhammad ali bohyo

7/30/2019 Energy and Renewables Muhammad Ali Bohyo

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Powering the PlanetEnergy and Renewables: Muhammad Ali Bohyo 07 MS STP 02


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Global Energy Perspective

Present Energy Perspective

Future Constraints Imposed by Sustainability

Challenges in Exploiting Carbon-Neutral Energy Sources

Economically on the Needed Scale


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Energy is the single most important challenge facing humanity today.

Nobel Laureate Rick Smalley, April 2004, Testimony to U.S. Senate

..energy is the single most important scientific and technological challenge

facing humanity in the 21stcentury..: Chemical and Engineering News,

August 22, 2005.

What should be the centerpiece of a policy of American renewal is

blindingly obvious: making a quest for energy independence the moon shot

of our generation, Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, Sept. 23, 2005.

The time for progress is now. .. it is our responsibility to lead in this

mission, Susan Hockfield, on energy, in her MIT Inauguration speech.

Perspective


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Power Units: The Terawatt Challenge

Power1 103 106 109 1012

1 W 1 kW 1 MW 1 GW 1 TW

and a

d) decompressore this picture.

Energy

1 J =

1 W for 1


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Global Energy Consumption, 2001

4.66

2.89 2.98

0.285

1.24

0.286

0.92

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.55

TW

Oil Coal Biomass NuclearGas Hydro Renew

Total: 13.2 TW U.S.: 3.2 TW (96 Quads)


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Energy From Renewables, 2001

10-5

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

Elect Heat EtOH Wind Solar PVSolar Th.Low T Sol HtHydro Geoth Marine

Elec Heat EtOH Wind Sol PV SolTh LowT Sol Hydro Geoth Marine

TW

Biomass

1E-4

2E-1

5E-3

1E-4

6E-3

1E-2

7E-2

7E-5


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(in the U.S. in 2002)

1-4 2.3-5.0 6-8 5-7

Today: Production Cost of Electricity

0

5

10

15

20

25

Coal Gas Oil Wind Nuclear Solar

Cost

6-7

25-50


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Energy Costs

0

2

46

8

10

1214

$/GJ

Coal Oil Biomass Elect

Brazil E

urope

$0.05/kW-hr

www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea


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Oil Supply Curves

WEO est.required totalneed to 2030


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Its hard to make predictions, especially about the future

M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881, Energy Implications

of Future Atmospheric Stabilization of CO2 Content

adapted from IPCC 92 Report: Leggett, J. et. al. inClimate Change, The Supplementary Report to theScientific IPCC Assessment, 69-95, Cambridge Univ.Press, 1992

Energy and Sustainability


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PermafrostGreenland Ice Sheet

QuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Coral

Bleaching


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Projected Carbon-Free Primary Powe

2005 usage:

14 TW


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Renewable Energy Cost TrendsLevelized cents/kWh in constant $20001

Wind

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

PV

COEcents/kWh

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

40

30

20

10

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

BiomasGeothermal Solar thermal

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010

COEcents/kWh10

8

6

4

2

0

7060

50

40

30

20

10

0

15

12

9

6

3

0

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.

Updated: October 2002


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Renewable Electricity Technology Cost TrendsChart Notes, Page 1

Background

The Cost Curves are expressed in constant, 2000 year dollars and based on a uniform set of financial assumptions consistentwith Generating Company Ownership (balance-sheet financing).

Actual project costs can vary substantiallynot only over time, but from project to projectbased on variables such as sitingand permitting costs, land costs, transmission access, labor costs, and financing terms.

The Cost Curves are not based on specific project data, but are composite representations derived from a variety of sourcesoutlined below.

Historic costs from 1980 to 1995 generally reflect costs that were published in various DOE Renewable Energy Program planssuch as five-year program plans, annual budgets, and other program publications.

The Future Cost Curves generally reflect how the DOE Renewable Energy Programs expect the costs of renewable energy todecrease through lowered technology costs and improved performances, resulting from R&D efforts and other factors.

Projections of cost to 2020 for biomass, geothermal, and photovoltaic energy technologies are based on the DOE/EPRIRenewable Energy Technology Characterizations published in 1997. Wind and solar thermal costs represent more recent DOERenewable Energy Program projections.

The Cost Curves generally assume the availability of high-quality resources. This is an important point because systems using

lower quality resources are being built, in some cases with costs as much as double those shown.

The Cost Curves do not include the effects of tax credits or production tax incentives.

R bl El t i it T h l C t T d


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Renewable Electricity Technology Cost TrendsChart Notes, Page 2

General Observations

The renewable technology cost trends typically show a steep decline from 1980 to the present. Projections show this decline tocontinue, but at a slower absolute pace as the technologies mature.

Historic cost of energy trends reflected in this chart are in broad agreement with the trends published in Winner, Loser, orInnocent Victim? Has Renewable Energy Performed as Expected? Renewable Energy Policy Project, Report No. 7, April 1999.

Technology Specific Notes

Wind technology cost projections represent wind power systems in locations with Class 6 resources. Low wind-speed turbinetechnology is under development, which will make available large amounts of usable wind resources that are closer totransmission. Lower costs will result from design and technology improvements across the spectrum from foundations and towers,to turbine blades, hubs, generators, and electronics.

Biomass cost projections are based on gasification technology. Lower costs will result from technology improvements indicated bycurrent pilot plant operations and evaluation, including improvements in feedstock handling, gas processing/cleanup, and overall

plant design optimization.

Geothermal cost projections are for Flash technology. Cost reductions will result from more efficient and productive resourceexploration and characterization as well as from continued improvements in heat exchangers, fluid-handling technologies, turbines,and generators.

Solar thermal cost projections are for Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Technologies and are based on a detailed due-diligencestudy completed in 2002 at the request of DOE. Cost reductions will result from improved reflectors and lower-cost heliostatdesigns, improved solar thermal receivers, heat exchangers and fluid handling technologies, and turbines and generators, as well asfrom volume manufacturing.

Photovoltaic cost projections are based on increasing penetration of thin-film technology into the building sector. Likelytechnology improvements include higher efficiencies, increased reliability (which can reduce module prices), improvedmanufacturing processes, and lower balance of system costs through technology improvements and volume sales.


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These results underscore the pitfalls of wait and see.

Without policy incentives to overcome socioeconomic inertia,

development of needed technologies will likely not occur soon

enough to allow capitalization on a 10-30 TW scale by 2050

Researching, developing, and commercializing carbon-free

primary power technologies capable of 10-30 TW by the mid-21st

century could require efforts, perhaps international, pursued with

the urgency of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Space

Program.

Hoffert et al.s Conclusions


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Ifwe need such large amounts of carbon-free power, then:

current pricing is not the driver for year 2050 primary

energy supply

Hence,

Examine energy potential of various forms of renewable

energy

Examine technologies and costs of various renewables

Examine impact on secondary power infrastructure and

energy utilization

Lewis Conclusions


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Abundant, Inexpensive Resource Base of Fossil Fuels

Renewables will not play a large role in primary power generatiounless/until:

technological/cost breakthroughs are achieved, or

unpriced externalities are introduced (e.g., environmentally

-driven carbon taxes)

Conclusions

energy and renewables muhammad ali bohyo

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