energy and development: geopolitics and research · •roughly 600m without access in ssa now:...
TRANSCRIPT
Morgan D. Bazilian, Ph.D.
IIEA, Dublin, Eire, May 17, 2016
ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT: Geopolitics and Research
Scope and Scale │ Investment │ Geopoli�cs & Security │ Research
IIASA, Nakicenovic
No Longer a Triangle(“all of the above” is difficult)
“Energy is Eternal Delight”
William Blake, The Marriage of Heaven and Hell, 1793
• Lighting
• Heating/cooling
• Refrigeration
• Pumping
• Transport
• Motors
We mostly take these for granted or assume their availability in wealthy countries.
It is a very different situation in poor countries.
Energy and development: “The golden thread”
A basis for security: migration, urbanization, equality
Impacts on environment: air pollution (indoor and outdoor), climate change
A foundation for economic activity across the economy
Essential for social development: public health, education, food security, water services
+Imminently “doable”: the physics in New York and Paris, the same as in Dhaka and Addis.
Three Targets:
UN Sustainable Energy for All initiative
One Goal: Achieving Sustainable Energy for All by 2030
•Roughly 600m without access in SSA now: projected to be 700m in 2030 (IEA). Only region going up in absolute terms.
•Without South Africa, the total SSA capacity is a mere 34 GW, equivalent to the installed capacity of Argentina.
•Manufacturing enterprises experience power outages on an average of 56 days per year; costs 6-16% of GDP.
2.9 billion 1.1 billion
Access deficit almost three times as large fornon-solid fuels as for electricity
Electricity access
deficit
Cooking access
deficit
IEA WEO 2014
Energy moving to Developing Economies
Total power system investment 2012-2035 is estimated at USD 16.9 trillion.Non-OECD countries account for 60% of cumulative investment.
Inequity
Non-linear growth needed(more than a light – big markets)
Multi-tier Framework
Additional frameworks for access to energy for:
• Household cooking• Productive engagements• Community Infrastructure
In Kinshasa DRC, In Kinshasa DRC, In Kinshasa DRC, In Kinshasa DRC, conventional access is 90%, but adjusting for service deficiencies score drops to 30%conventional access is 90%, but adjusting for service deficiencies score drops to 30%conventional access is 90%, but adjusting for service deficiencies score drops to 30%conventional access is 90%, but adjusting for service deficiencies score drops to 30%
Precedent of household electrification
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1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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USA Mexico Mauritius China Brazil
Thailand India UK Egypt South Africa
Source: Pachauri et al., 2011: Energy Access for Development. In: The Global Energy Assessment: Toward a More Sustainable Future. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Innovation, technology and planning
In Nigeria, higher population density favours on-grid supplyLow population density in Ethiopia means show mini- and off-grid solutions
Ethiopia
Source: IEA in collaboration with the KTH Royal Institute of Technology, division of Energy Systems Analysis.
Nigeria
Environmental Trade-offs?
International Energy Agency (IEA): “Universal modern energy access does not have any significant impact on energy or climate security”
It depends…cookstoves or modern ovens and dishwashers…
Three Targets:
Sustainable Sustainable Sustainable Sustainable Energy for All Energy for All Energy for All Energy for All initiativeinitiativeinitiativeinitiative
One Goal: Achieving Sustainable Energy for All by 2030
Investment flows need to triple to achieve the necessary pace of progress
Our new estimatesOur medium estimate is roughly equivalent to other literature, including the World
Energy Outlook 2012. The large disparity between our high scenario and the available literature is mostly due to the significantly higher assumption on per capita electricity use. That “high” per capita electricity use assumption is still roughly half of the average of today’s North African demand – so still nearly an order of magnitude lower than an OECD average.
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IEA
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IEA
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IEA
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ECC
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ost
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D]
Cooking
Electricity
Current flows are not being utilised entirely
http://rise.worldbank.org
Readiness for Investment
The wrong image
Nearly 50% of sub-Saharan African companies own or share a generator.
0 20 40 60 80
Bangladesh (2013)
Lebanon (2013)
Pakistan (2007)
Central African Republic (2011)
Congo, Rep. (2009)
Chad (2009)
Dominican Republic (2010)
Myanmar (2014)
Afghanistan (2014)
Kosovo (2013)
Timor-Leste (2009)
Cameroon (2009)
Nepal (2013)
Ghana (2013)
Togo (2009)
Zimbabwe (2011)
Uganda (2013)
Uzbekistan (2013)
Guinea-Bissau (2006)
Benin (2009)
Micronesia, Fed. Sts. (2009)
Gabon (2009)
Albania (2013)
Botswana (2010)
Sri Lanka (2011)
Number of unscheduled outages per month
Source: E&Y, 2014
Oil, Governance, Aid, and Access(an evolving story)
The $18 billion needed for access to electricity and to clean cooking stoves and cylinders,is a mere 0.4% of the government take from oil and gas export revenues in 2006-2030
0 2 4 6 8
Sudan
Nigeria
Mozambique
Gabon
Equatorial Guinea
Côte d'Ivoire
Congo
Chad
Cameroon
Angola
Billion dollars (2007)
Electrification
LPG
Flaring and planning
About 140 billion cubic meters annually
Enough to produce 750 billion kWh power
More than the entire power consumption on the African
continent currently
Natural gas and AfricaNatural gas and AfricaNatural gas and AfricaNatural gas and Africa
Estimated potential natural gas demand in sub-Saharan Africa by 2050.
Optimal transmission pipeline network and gas cost at city gate for the baseline scenario. Based on the estimated gas demand for 2050 and a gas production cost of $3/MMBtu. It is assumed that 1300 Bcf/year is exported from Matola (Southern Mozambique) to South Africa. The required investment is estimated at $56.7 Billion.
Security and Geopolitics as Impetus and Lens
Providing energy services in the poorest countries can lower the risk of internal unrest and reduce the movement of people across borders.
Towards a research agenda
1. How do we link energy and development issues firmly wider governance and security issues?
2. How to improve power planning methodologies, especially in fragile and conflict states under deep uncertainty?
3. How to respond to the challenges related to linkages with other sectors such as water and food security?
4. How to best understand links to natural gas and energy access?
5. How are the worlds financial institutions investing in the energy sector in developing countries, under what rules, and what rule-making?
Related references
Bazilian, M., Sagar, A., Detchon, R., Yumkella, K. 2010. More Heat and Light, Energy Policy 38 (2010) 5409–5412, Elsevier.
Bazilian, M., Nussbaumer, P., Haites, H. Levi, M., Yumkella, K. 2010. Understanding the Costs of Universal Energy Access. Geopolitics of Energy. Vol. 32 (10 and 11). CERI.
Bazilian, M. Hobbs, B., Blyth, W., MacGill, I., and Howells, M. 2011. Interactions between Energy Security and Climate Change: A focus on developing countries. Energy Policy. Vol. 39 (6).
Howells, M., Rogner, H., Strachan, N., Heaps, C., Huntington, H., Kypreos, S., Hughes, A., Silveira, S., Decarolis, J., Bazillian, M. & Roehrl, A. OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development. 2011. Energy Policy. Elsevier
Nussbaumer, P. Bazilian, M., Modi, V., Yumkella, K. 2011. Measuring Energy Poverty: Focusing on What Matters. Renewable and Sustainable Energy reviews. Elsevier.
Bazilian, M. Nussbaumer, P., Gualberti, G., Haites, E., Levi, M., Siegel, J., Kammen, J., Fenhann, J. 2011. Informing the Financing of Universal Energy Access: An Assessment of Current Financial Flows. The Electricity Journal.Elsevier.
Bazilian, M. Nussbaumer, P., Rogner, H., Howells, M., Hermann, S., Arent, D., Gielen, D., Steduto, P., Mueller, A., Komor, P., Tol, R., Yumkella, K. 2011. Considering the Energy, Water and Food Nexus: Towards an Integrated Modelling Framework. Energy Policy. Elsevier.
Benjamin K. Sovacool, Christopher Cooper, Morgan Bazilian, Katie Johnson, David Zoppo, Shannon Clarke, Jay Eidsness, Meredith Crafton, Thiyagarajan Velumail, and Hilal A. Raza. 2012. What Moves and Works: Broadening the Consideration of Energy Poverty. Energy Policy. Elsevier.
Bazilian, M. Nussbaumer, P., Rogner, Brew-Hammond, A., Foster, V., H., Williams, E., Howells, M., Niyongabo, P., Musaba, L., Ó Gallachóir, B., Radka, M., Kammen, D. 2012. Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. Utilities Policy. Elsevier.
Bazilian, M. Nussbaumer, P., Eibs-Singer, C., Brew-Hammond, A., Modi, V., Sovacool, B., Remana, V., Aqrawi, P. 2012. Improving Access to Modern Energy Services: Insights from Case Studies. Electricity Journal. Elsevier.
Yumkella, K., Nakicenovic, N., Bazilian, m., Jewell, J. 2012. The UN Sustainable Energy for All Initiative and Climate Change Mitigation. WMO Bulletin. Vol 61 (1).
Bazilian, M. Rice, A. Rotich, J. Howells, M., DeCarolis, J., MacMillan, S., Vrooks, C., Bauer, F., Liebreich, M. 2012. Open source software and crowdsourcing for energy analysis. Energy Policy.
Onyeji, I., Bazilian, M. Bronk, C. 2014. Cyber security and critical energy infrastructure. Electricity Journal. Elsevier.
Taliotis, C., Bazilian, M., Welsch, M., Gielen, D., Howells, M. 2014. Grand Inga to power Africa: Hydropower development scenarios to 2035. Energy Strategy Reviews.
Bazilian, M., Van de Graaf, T., Nakhooda, S. 2014. Energy Governance and Poverty. Energy research and social science. Elsevier.
Taliotis, C., Miketa, A., Howells, M., Hermann, S., Welsch, M., Bazilian, M., Gielen, D. 2014. An indicative assessment of investment opportunities in the African electricity supply sector. Journal of Energy in South Africa.
Pedersen, A., Bazilian, M. 2014. Oil Politics in South Sudan. Extractive Industries and Society. Elsevier.
M. Welsch, M. Howells, M. Bazilian, J. DeCarolis, S. Hermann, H.H. Rogner, Modelling elements of Smart Grids: Enhancing the OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System) code. Energy. Elsevier
Oneyji, I. Bazilian, M., Nussbaumer, P. 2012. Contextualizing Electricity Access in Sub-Saharan Africa. Energy for Sustainable Development. Elsevier.
Bazilian, M., Welsch. M., Divan, D., Elzinga, D., Strbac, G., Howells, M., Jones, J., Keane, A., Gielen, D., Brew-hammond, A., Yumkella, K. 2012. Smart and Just Grids. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. Elsevier.
Bazilian, M. Onyeji, I. Liebreich, M., Gielen, D., Arent, D., Landfear, D. 2013. Reconsidering the economics of photovoltaic energy generation. Renewable Energy. Elsevier.
Nussbaumer, P., Patt, A., Bazilian, M. 2013. A statistical analysis of the link between energy and the Millennium Development Goals. Climate and Development. Earthscan.
Alcorta, L. Bazilian, M. Pedersen. A, DeSimone, G. 2013. Return on Investment from Industrial Energy Efficiency: Evidence from Developing Countries. Energy Efficiency. Springer
Bazilian, M. Onyeji, I. Aqrawi, P., Sovacool, B., Ofori, E., Kammen, D. Van de Graaf, T. 2013. Oil, Energy Poverty, and Resource Dependence in West Africa. International Journal of Sustainable Resource and Energy Law.
Tawney, L., Miller, M., Bazilian, M. 2013. Innovation for sustainable energy from a pro-poor perspective. Climate Policy.
Gualberti, G., Singer, C., Bazilian, M. 2013. The capacity to spend development funds in the energy sector. Utilities Policy. September, pp 36-44.
Howells.M., Welsch, M., Bazilian, M., Segerstrom, R., Alfstad, T., Gielen, D., Rogner, H., Fischer, G., Van Velthuizen, H., Wiberg, D., et al., 2013. Integrated analysis of climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies. Nature Climate Change.3,621–626
Bazilian, M., Pielke, R. 2013. Raising aspirations for energy access. Issues in Science and Technology.
Bazilian, M., Pedersen, A., Pless, J., Logan, J., Medlock, K., O’Sullivan, F. 2013. Considering Shale Gas in China. International Journal of shale gas and oil. Brussels.
Thompson, G., Bazilian, M. 2013. Democratization, Energy Poverty, and the Pursuit of Symmetry. Global Policy.
Bazilian, M. 2015. Power to the Poor. Foreign Affairs.
Bazilian, M., Roques, F. 2008. Analytical Methods for Energy Diversity and Security, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam.