Endgame or Endless Endgame or Endless Game?Game?

The Current Situation in Iraq The Current Situation in Iraq andand

Possibilities for the FuturePossibilities for the Future

Outline

Changing Levels of violence

Outline

Changing Levels of Violence

Infrastructure

Outline

Changing Levels of Violence

Infrastructure

Why the drop in violence?

Outline

Changing Levels of Violence

Infrastructure

Why the drop in violence?

Iraqis evaluate the present

Outline

Changing Levels of Violence

Infrastructure

Why the drop in violence?

Iraqis evaluate the present

Evolution of U.S. opinion

Outline

Changing Levels of Violence

Infrastructure

Why the drop in violence?

Iraqis evaluate the present

Evolution of U.S. opinion

How Iraqis see their future

Outline

Changing Levels of Violence

Infrastructure

Why the drop in violence?

Iraqis evaluate the present

Evolution of U.S. opinion

How Iraqis see their future

What outside powers can do

Sources of data, chartsSources of data, charts

►Unless indicated otherwise, charts Unless indicated otherwise, charts originate from the Saban Center at the originate from the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution, which publishes Brookings Institution, which publishes the Iraq Index twice weekly:the Iraq Index twice weekly:

►http://www.brookings.edu/saban/~/http://www.brookings.edu/saban/~/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraqmedia/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf%20Index/index.pdf

Changing Levels of Violence

CUMULATIVE TOTALS OF CUMULATIVE TOTALS OF DISPLACED IRAQISDISPLACED IRAQIS

YEARYEARINTERNALLYINTERNALLY

DISPLACEDDISPLACEDABROADABROAD

2003-42003-4 200,000200,000 366,000366,000

20052005 250,000250,000 889,000889,000

20062006 685,000685,000 1,800,0001,800,000

20072007 1,375,0001,375,000 2,400,0002,400,000

Infrastructure

Crude Oil & Electricity OutputCrude Oil & Electricity Output

Crude OilCrude Oil ElectricityElectricity

M bbl/dayM bbl/day MW MW hrs/dayhrs/day

Pre-war Pre-war peakpeak

2.52.5 9500095000

12/200312/2003 2.32.3 7200072000

12/200412/2004 2.22.2 8100081000

12/200512/2005 1.91.9 9100091000

12/200612/2006 2.22.2 8600086000

12/200712/2007 2.42.4 102000102000

A Canadian military assessment from early 2005:

Disconnect Between Orientation and ActionsDisconnect Between Orientation and Actions

“Unfortunately, the U.S. effort to rebuild Iraq is out of synch (a full  180 degrees) with what is really needed.”

Elections and the establishment of a government/army get the majority share of the U.S. effort. The vast majority of the U.S. effort is focused on building a viable Iraqi government that can provide the country the ability to self-actualize.

Hearts and minds. Rebuilding schools and hospitals. General clean-up activities. These activities take the second position.

Basic services get the least effort. From the days of mass looting of Iraq just after the invasion, the U.S. has demonstrated that it is uninterested in street level security. Additionally, the vast majority of Iraq's infrastructure is guarded by local or outsourced forces (if at all).

Source: http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2004/12/ legitimacy_101.html

Why the Improving Security Why the Improving Security Situation? Some hypotheses:Situation? Some hypotheses:

““The surge is working” (or has worked)The surge is working” (or has worked) Ethnic cleansing has reduced the Ethnic cleansing has reduced the

number of targetsnumber of targets U.S. forces are operating less U.S. forces are operating less

aggressivelyaggressively Insurgent groups have changed tacticsInsurgent groups have changed tactics Negotiated deals between U.S. and Negotiated deals between U.S. and

some insurgents some insurgents

How much did the surge How much did the surge help?help?

Over the period from May 2003 to December Over the period from May 2003 to December 2007 2007

► Changes in troop levels explain only about Changes in troop levels explain only about 10% of the variation in the number of 10% of the variation in the number of attacks.attacks.

► Changes in the number of attacks explain Changes in the number of attacks explain only 3-5% of the variation in Coalition troop only 3-5% of the variation in Coalition troop levelslevels

The importance of changing The importance of changing strategystrategy

► U.S. effectively reaches negotiated U.S. effectively reaches negotiated settlement in Anbar province, perhaps other settlement in Anbar province, perhaps other areasareas

► Local elites are recognized as providing Local elites are recognized as providing security and governancesecurity and governance

► Local elites attempt to defeat al Qaeda and Local elites attempt to defeat al Qaeda and similar forces, wait for their day to deal with similar forces, wait for their day to deal with the Shi’itesthe Shi’ites

► Everyone knows the U.S. cannot sustain Everyone knows the U.S. cannot sustain high rates of deploymenthigh rates of deployment

COALITION TROOP STRENGTH BY MONTH

135,000

145,000

155,000

165,000

175,000

185,000

195,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

MONTHS SINCE MAY, 2003

TROOPS AND ATTACKS BY MONTH

MONTHS SINCE MAY 2003

TROOPS ATTACKS RESCALED

The Importance of Al-Anbar and The Importance of Al-Anbar and BaghdadBaghdad

►Attacks in August-November, 2006Attacks in August-November, 2006

Total Nationwide: 153Total Nationwide: 153

Al-Anbar & Baghdad: 81Al-Anbar & Baghdad: 81

►Attacks in July-November 2007Attacks in July-November 2007

Total Nationwide: 91 Total Nationwide: 91

Al-Anbar & Baghdad: 33Al-Anbar & Baghdad: 33

What do the Iraqi What do the Iraqi people want?people want?

Results of opinion polls, Results of opinion polls, 2003-20072003-2007

How do Iraqis View the Future?

What does the U.S. What does the U.S. public think about public think about

Iraq?Iraq?

Responses to opinion polls on Responses to opinion polls on Iraq, Afghanistan, Korea, and Iraq, Afghanistan, Korea, and

VietnamVietnam

Support for the wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Support for the wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and AfghanistanAfghanistan

0

25

50

75

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

IraqVietnamKoreaAfghanistan

Time, in years, since the beginning of the war

What political solution do Iraqis

want?

Why is Political Progress So Why is Political Progress So Difficult?Difficult?

►Minimal experience with democratic Minimal experience with democratic institutionsinstitutions

►Very long cycles of tit-for-tat punishmentVery long cycles of tit-for-tat punishment►A demographic minority has historically A demographic minority has historically

been politically dominantbeen politically dominant►Time horizons are very shortTime horizons are very short►Cooperation often punished by own Cooperation often punished by own

hard-liners hard-liners

What can outside powers do?What can outside powers do?

►Technical assistance with the Technical assistance with the mechanics of governmentmechanics of government

►Provide the political equivalent of loan Provide the political equivalent of loan guarantees to the parties who agree to guarantees to the parties who agree to negotiated solutionsnegotiated solutions

►Enlarge the pie by providing aid Enlarge the pie by providing aid (conditional? unconditional?)(conditional? unconditional?)

►Restrain each other from interveningRestrain each other from intervening