emsi annual conference labor mkt. outlook coeur d’alene, id september 12, 2012 bob uhlenkott chief...
TRANSCRIPT
EMSIAnnual
Conference
Labor Mkt. Outlook
Coeur d’Alene, IDSeptember 12, 2012
Bob UhlenkottChief Research Officer
Idaho Department of Labor
Research Collaborations
• Labor Market Information shops are collaborating with education institutions all across the country via State Longitudinal Data Systems (SLDS) and Workforce Data Quality Initiative (WDQI) grants.
60%
• State Education and Workforce goals vary across the country but have common theme. Build a broader, smarter and more educated workforce
Return-On-Investment
$18
$10$9 $10
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
Associate degree or Postsecondary vocational training
Bachelor's degree Master's degree or Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience
First professional degree or Doctoral degree
Educations Return on Investment for Every Dollar Invested
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
20152016
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Realized GDP 3.3% Annual Growth 1.3% Annual Growth
Bureau of Economic Analysis - June 2012
3.3%
1.3%
$57.9 Billion
$60B -- Idaho Gross Domestic Product
2013
2016
$60 Billion
Idaho Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate19
7819
7819
7919
8019
8119
8119
8219
8319
8419
8419
8519
8619
8719
8719
8819
8919
9019
9019
9119
9219
9319
9319
9419
9519
9619
9619
9719
9819
9919
9920
0020
0120
0220
0220
0320
0420
0520
0520
0620
0720
0820
0820
0920
1020
11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Perc
ent
Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the US Department of Labor - June 2012.
7.5 % 8.3 %
July 2012
(9.6%) Previous RecordDec-1982 to Feb-1983
(2.7%) Nov-2006 to Mar-2007
Conference Board Data (July 2012)5/
1/20
07
7/1/
2007
9/1/
2007
11/1
/200
7
1/1/
2008
3/1/
2008
5/1/
2008
7/1/
2008
9/1/
2008
11/1
/200
8
1/1/
2009
3/1/
2009
5/1/
2009
7/1/
2009
9/1/
2009
11/1
/200
9
1/1/
2010
3/1/
2010
5/1/
2010
7/1/
2010
9/1/
2010
11/1
/201
0
1/1/
2011
3/1/
2011
5/1/
2011
7/1/
2011
9/1/
2011
11/1
/201
1
1/1/
2012
3/1/
2012
5/1/
2012
7/1/
2012
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
Help Wanted Online by Wanted Analytics
Idaho Non-Farm JobsYear Over Year Percentage Change
JanMar
May JulSep
Nov
January 2009
MarMay Jul
SepNov
January 2010
MarMay Jul
SepNov
January 2011
MarMay Jul
SepNov
January 2012
MarMay
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Idaho Non-farm Jobs Data - June 2012 - Idaho Department of Labor
EMSI Uses in Idaho LMI Shop
EMSI Adds Value: Input-Output Models/Multipliers Release-able Data Sets (estimates
confidential cells) Data Mining in Smaller Geographies Quick and Easy Data Mining and
Formatting
Industry and Occupational Projections
STP - 2009 to 2011 – Jobs were projected to grow annually at .30%. Underestimated Non-farm Jobs in the fourth quarter of 2011 by 140
Jobs (off by .023%).
STP - 2010 to 2012 – Jobs were projected to grow annually at .33%. Growth expected to be near projection.
STP - 2011 to 2013 – Jobs are projected to grow annually at 1.2%. Too early to tell, but growth is slower than the projection in the first
six months.
LTP - 2010 to 2020 – Jobs projected to grow at 1.7%. More to be shared this afternoon.
Education and Training Pay!