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EMPLOYMENT BEHAVIOUR OF THE ELDERLY
IN THAILAND
Thuttai Keeratipongpaiboon
Department of Economics
School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London
The 11th IFA Global Conference on Ageing
28 May – 1 June 2012. Prague, the Czech Republic
International Federation on Ageing (IFA)
A part of the CSEAS Project
Structure
1 2 3 4
2
1
3
Introduction
Old-Age Employment Situation in Thailand
Determinant of Employment Decisions of the Elderly
4 Conclusion
2
Introduction
1 2 3 4
• Increasing longevity: longer period of retirement
• Thai elderly people cannot rely on their own savings and invisible pensions: need family supports
• Urbanisation has deteriorated strength of family relationship: what happen to Thai elderly people?
• Possibility: a number of Thai elderly people have to be economically active for their own survival.
• Research aim: to study dynamic of employment behaviour of the elderly in Thailand
Significance of the Research
Methodology
• Data
• Socio-Economic Survey (SES) Data, 1990-2007 (National Statistical Office)
• Survey of the Older Persons in Thailand (SOP), 2007 (National Statistical Office)
• Secondary data from reliable sources
• Methodology
• Descriptive Analysis
• Econometric Analysis – using a Probit regression model
3
Situation of Population Ageing in Thailand
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition. 4
Old-age Dependency Ratio is on an upward trend: Thailand has the highest rate in the SEA region 1 2 3 4
0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Old
-Ag
e D
ep
en
de
ncy
Ra
tio
(%
65
+/1
5-6
4)
Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia LAOS
Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore
Thailand Timor-Leste Viet Nam
Remark: an old-age dependency ratio is defined as a ratio of population 65+ per 100 population 15-64.
In 2007, the majority are:
• Attaining primary education or less
(91.78%)
• Female (56.27%)
• Household heads (59.87%)
• Married (60.68%)
• Able to go out without assistance
(healthy, 87.08%)
• Not working (58.09%)
• Not living in a household with pension
incomes (94.60%)
• Living in the Northeast (35.39%)
• Living with their children (60.39%)
• Living in three-generational households
(36.92%)
Average age of Thai elderly increased
from 69.15 (1990) to 69.72 years.
Summary of the Elderly in Thailand
Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data 5
Share of the Elderly by Living Arrangements, Thailand, 1990-2007
Remark: *excluding skipped generation households
1 2 3 4
Share of the Elderly by employment situation, Thailand, 1990-2007
• The labour-force participation rates of Thai elderly
persons are quite high; higher than the world
average.
• Almost one-fifth of Thai females aged 65 and over
were found in the workforce in 2005.
• The LFP rates of females are quite high
comparatively to Asia, LAC, Economies in Transition
and the World.
• The share of elderly in Thailand’s labour force is on
an upward trend; increasing from 3.7% to 7.0%
during 1986-2006.
Old-Age Employment Situation
1 2 3 4
6
Labour Force Participation Rates, the World Regions, 2005
Source: United Nations (2007, p.61, Table IV.2), Development in an Ageing World; Author’s own calculation from the ILO’s data, http://laborsta.ilo.org/ accessed on 12 march 2012.
Region/Country1
Age Group
25-54 55-64 65+
Men Women Men Women Men Women
World 95.1 66.7 73.5 38.7 30.2 11.3
Developed Countries 91.9 75.3 63.9 44.9 13.4 6.3
Economies in Transition 90.7 81.3 52.6 31.2 14.2 7.8
Africa 96.2 61.0 86.5 48.3 57.4 25.8
Asia 96.3 64.2 77.6 35.4 38.0 13.2
Latin America and the Caribbean 94.3 64.3 76.1 37.2 37.2 13.7
Oceania 87.4 73.3 76.0 60.6 51.4 33.4
Thailand 95.9 82.2 81.8 65.7 41.0 21.7
Source: summarised from the Ministry of Labour (2007), The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand.
Old-Age Employment Situation
1 2 3 4 Situations of Old-Age Labour Force, Thailand, 1986-2006
Sourc
e:
sum
marise
d f
rom
the M
inis
try o
f Labour
(2007),
The S
ituation o
f O
ld-A
ge E
mplo
yment
in T
haila
nd.
•Trends: more females, more older elderly (65+), better educated.
•The majority are self-employed (60.97% in 2006). More elderly people are recently found in the private sector.
Old-Age Employment Situation
1 2 3 4
8
Old-Age Employment Situations Thailand by Living Arrangements, 2007
Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data
Old-Age Employment Situation
1 2 3 4
9
The Situation of Old-Age Employment in Thailand, by Living Arrangements and Age Group, 2007
Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data
5.1
13.8
20.7
35.6
47.3
22.4
29.6
6.7
15.1
21.623.4
35.6
52.1
33.0
6.4
14.1
32.4
55.0
34.0
42.6
45.6
13.7
23.3
31.1
45.0
61.7
33.4
43.0
7.6
16.8
25.1
39.5
53.6
35.6
26.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Total Elderly (60+) Total Elderly (65+) 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 and over
Age Groups (Year)
Percen
tag
e o
f E
co
no
mic
all
y A
cti
ve E
lderly
Perso
ns
in E
ach
Ag
e G
ro
up
(%
)
Three-or-More-Generational Households Two-Generational Households (excl. Skipped) Skipped Generation Households
One-Generational Households All Living Arrangements
Old-Age Employment Situation
1 2 3 4
10
Reasons for Remaining in the Labour Force of the Elderly, by living arrangements, 2007
Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data
36.3541.49
34.83 34.60 33.20
51.72 43.86 54.88 57.4154.83
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
All Living Arrangements Three-or-More-
Generational Households
Two-Generational
Households (exc Skipped)
Skipped Generation
Households
One-Generational
Households
Still Healthy Looking after themselves/family Looking after their children
Noone can replace the job Not retire yet Having debt
Spend time Help child(ren)/ family members Others
Old-Age Employment Situation
1 2 3 4
11
Reasons for Leaving the Labour Force of the Elderly, by living arrangements, 2007
Source: author’s own calculation from the 2007 SOP data
9.13 8.59 8.15
19.12
7.03
72.61 77.80
71.10
61.12
69.94
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
All Living Arrangements Three-or-More-Generational
Households
Two-Generational
Households (exc Skipped)
Skipped Generation
Households
O ne-Generational
Households
Household working/ looking after family members Spouse/Child(ren) do not allow to work Waiting for next season
Too old Incapable for work with disability Illness
Voluntary idle Looking or waiting for a job Pension official
To rest Others
Determinant of Old-Age Employment
12
Variables Year
1990 1994 1998 2004 2007
I. Demographic Factors
- Age -0.027*** -0.028*** -0.029*** -0.029*** -0.028***
(-11.14) (-14.41) (-18.38) (-17.17) (-22.15)
- Secondary Education -0.207*** -0.018 -0.012 -0.014 -0.037
(-3.31) (-0.30) (-0.19) (-0.35) (-1.21)
- Bachelor’s Degree 0.011 -0.107 0.050 -0.038 -0.117***
(0.10) (-1.16) (0.43) (-0.73) (-2.64)
- Master’s Degree or Higher 0.187 -0.024 -0.204**
(1.40) (-0.16) (-2.45)
- Male 0.118*** 0.056* 0.113*** 0.075*** 0.165***
(2.67) (1.72) (4.19) (3.32) (8.83)
- Household Head 0.177*** 0.262*** 0.188*** 0.273*** 0.228***
(3.37) (6.90) (7.11) (12.40) (12.23)
- Married 0.191*** 0.220*** 0.173*** 0.177*** 0.156***
(4.81) (6.87) (7.13) (7.73) (8.42)
- Able to go out by Themselves
without Assistance
0.269***
(10.98)
- Access to Medical Welfare -0.014 0.004
(-0.40) (0.11)
II. Economic Factors
- Pensions (Yes) -0.086 -0.145** -0.066 -0.145*** -0.114***
(-1.23) (-1.99) (-1.27) (-3.05) (-3.09)
- Transfer Payments (Yes) 0.024 -0.026 0.012 -0.026
(0.61) (-0.88) (0.58) (-1.31)
- Poverty (Yes) 0.055 0.093** 0.036 0.080*** 0.024
(1.27) (2.50) (1.01) (2.67) (0.90)
- Savings (Yes) 0.007 -0.017 0.014 -0.003 -0.012
(0.22) (-0.67) (0.60) (-0.21) (-0.73)
Variables Year
1990 1994 1998 2004 2007
III. Household Characteristics
- Central 0.049 0.050 0.073 0.048 0.126***
(0.61) (0.84) (1.19) (1.40) (3.78)
- North 0.032 -0.022 0.050 0.040 0.122***
(0.39) (-0.38) (0.81) (1.14) (3.53)
- Northeast -0.013 0.055 -0.020 0.058 0.112***
(-0.16) (0.90) (-0.36) (1.62) (3.25)
- South 0.170* 0.081 0.125** 0.127*** 0.187***
(1.84) (1.25) (1.97) (3.21) (4.91)
- Rural -0.073* 0.000 0.013 -0.060*** -0.035**
(-1.65) (0.02) (0.39) (-3.72) (-2.46)
- Live in Three-or-More-
Generational Household
-0.040 -0.017 -0.125*** -0.056*
(-0.69) (-0.41) (-3.07) (-1.84)
- Live in Two-Generational
Household
-0.085 -0.208*** -0.154*** -0.230*** -0.198***
(-1.65) (-5.72) (-5.51) (-9.10) (-9.35)
- Live in Skipped Generation
Household
0.288*** 0.280*** 0.309*** 0.254*** 0.295***
(4.39) (5.92) (7.46) (7.63) (10.00)
- Household Size -0.210*** -0.205*** -0.186*** -0.213*** -0.256***
(-10.76) (-9.73) (-13.61) (-15.37) (-22.38)
- Household In the Agricultural
Sector
0.086** 0.114*** 0.102*** 0.430*** 0.386***
(2.25) (3.57) (4.15) (20.47) (20.59)
- Number of Recipients in
Household
-0.119*** -0.133*** -0.129*** 0.001
(-4.96) (-7.05) (-7.50) (0.12)
- Number of Earners in Household 0.431*** 0.493*** 0.465*** 0.438*** 0.494***
(15.17) (19.82) (23.57) (27.01) (34.02)
Number of Observations 2,279 5,861 6,913 15,478 20,120
Wald Chi-Squared 474.66 894.06 1085.73 1883.94 2785.62
Probability > Chi-Squared 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000*** 0.0000***
Pseudo R-Squared 0.4974 0.5670 0.5660 0.6041 0.6240
Log Pseudo-Likelihood -796.59 -1724.72 -1986.62 -4175.35 -5144.71
1 2 3 4
Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data
Determinant of Old-Age Employment
13
Significant Factors:
•Demographic Factors: age(-), male(+), household head(+), married(+), healthy(+)
•Economic Factors: pensions(-), poverty(+)
•Household Characteristics: rural(-), agricultural(+), household size(-),
one-generational households(+)
Key Findings:
•The elderly living in one-generational households are more likely to be economically
active than those staying in other living arrangements.
•Implying: the presence of adult children is one of the key factors in the older persons’
decision to continue or to quit working.
1 2 3 4
Conclusions
1 2 3 4
Conclusions
Policy Implications
• Although working could contribute to the country’s economic development, elderly employment
should be also considered in its social aspects.
• Ideally, older persons should continue working as long as they wish and as long as their ability and
competency allow them to do.
• The labour-force participation rates of the elderly have been increasing over these two decades.
• The majority of employed older persons are male, aged between 60-69, low-educated, married and
self-employed.
• Elderly persons living in one-generational households are more likely to be economically active than
those staying in other living arrangements.
• The main reason for remaining in the workforce is financial i.e. poverty and low family support.
Another reason is that they are too healthy to retire.
• The key factor of labour-force withdrawal is health problems; they are too old to work.
14
Thank You
15
Thuttai Keeratipongpaiboon
Department of Economics
SOAS, University of London
Email: [email protected]
Living Arrangements of the Elderly
1990 2007
• The majority of elderly people in Bangkok live in two-generational households. Meanwhile, the majority of
older persons in the Northeast and Central regions live in three-generational households.
• Trend: more elderly people are found in one-generational households in every region.
• Skipped generational households are mostly found in the Northeast and North regions; an upward trend.
• The average size of household is decreasing in every region. This is because of a delay of marriage and
changing value towards having children. 17
Share of the Elderly, by Living Arrangements and Regions of Residence, 1990 & 2007
Source: author’s own calculation from the 1990 and 2007 SES data
Factors affecting Family Relationship
Source: Mason (1992), Figure 1 18
Key factors to decrease the importance of family: Industrialisation, Urbanisation and Migration
Industrialisation
Urbanisation
Migration
Family Productive Enterprise
Wage Employment of Individuals
Cost of Home-produced Goods
Demand for Female Labour
Universal Primary and Secondary Schooling
Per Capita Income Fertility
Child Survival
Filial Piety
Parental Power
Female Labour Force Participations
Joint/Stem Family
Ability to Purchase Privacy/Care
Availability of Caregivers
Housing Availability
Separation of the Generations
Care of the Elderly
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+ -
-
+
+
+
- +
+
+
- +
-
+
+
+
+
- -
-
-
-
Remarks: - Straight and single-headed arrows show casual relationships that run from the cause to the effect; meanwhile, curved and double-headed arrows represent correlated factors,
- A sign shown next to the arrow demonstrates a relation between factors. The net impact of factors can be calculated by multiplying the signs. For example, if there is a negative sign between factor A and B, and also a negative sign between factor B and C, the relationship of factors A and C is positive.
Regional Population Ageing in Thailand
Region
Share of the Elderly (%) Old-Age Dependency Ratio (%)
2000 2010 2020 2025 2000 2010 2020 2025
Whole Kingdom 9.43 11.90 17.51 21.22 14.30 17.61 26.58 33.28
Bangkok 7.88 11.28 20.40 26.97 10.61 16.06 30.68 42.50
Central (excl.BKK) 9.84 11.63 16.98 20.80 14.54 16.87 25.18 31.83
North 11.09 13.43 20.16 24.21 17.02 19.65 31.02 39.08
North-East 8.71 11.93 16.95 20.12 13.62 17.99 25.92 31.67
South 9.41 10.76 14.61 17.45 15.06 16.42 22.45 27.28
Source: Author’s own calculation from the Thailand’s Population Projection 2000-2030 provided by NESDB 19
Shares of the Elderly and Old-Age Dependency Rations, Thailand, 2000-2025
Age Profiles of Household Savings
Age Profiles of Savings (Whole Kingdom), by ages of household heads, 2007
100
exp x
incomecapitaperhousehold
enditurenconsumptiocapitaperhouseholdincomecapitaperhouseholdratiosavinghousehold
Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data provided by NSO 20
• Poor if household per capita income is
below the poverty line
• The majority of poor elderly people
are in the Northeast region.
• Rich households have positive
savings; meanwhile, poor households
are likely to face the problem of
insufficient income.
Old-Age Poverty
21
Regions Total Elderly People
(%)
Share of Poor Elderly People to Total Elderly People (%)
1990 1994 1998 2004 2007
Whole Kingdom 100.00 25.61 20.96 18.14 13.55 12.82 Bangkok 100.00 7.14 2.34 1.79 1.79 1.55 Central (excl.BKK) 100.00 21.93 10.97 13.25 7.95 5.26 North 100.00 26.85 19.77 15.97 19.77 14.18 North-East 100.00 30.61 32.18 27.10 17.65 20.40 South 100.00 31.29 18.63 15.36 10.36 9.55
Share of the Poor Elderly (60+), by Region, Thailand, 1990-2007
Source: Author’s own calculation from the 2007 SES data
Age Profiles of Household Savings, by Income Groups, Thailand, 2007
Source: Author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data
Source: Author’s own calculation from the 1990-2007 SES data
Share of Poor Elderly People, by Region, Thailand, 1990-2007
100
exp x
incomecapitaperhousehold
enditurenconsumptiocapitaperhouseholdincomecapitaperhouseholdratesavinghousehold
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
Ho
use
ho
ld S
av
ing
Ra
te (
%)
Age of Household Head
1st Decile 2nd Decile 3rd Decile 4th Decile 5th Decile
6th Decile 7th Decile 8th Decile 9th Decile 10th Decile
Fertility in Thailand
Remarks: 1 Bangkok was included in the Central region during 1960-1969;
2 1970 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office;
3 1980 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office;
4 1990 Census with Own Children Estimate, National Statistic Office;
5 2000 Census with Indirect Method Estimate, National Statistic Office;
6 The United Nations (2009a), World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision;
7 Survey of Population Change, National Statistical Office.
Source: adapted from Table 1 in Prachuabmoh and Mithranon (2003). 22
Source
and Year
Whole
Kingdom Bangkok
Central (exclude
Bangkok) North Northeast South
Census
1960-19642 6.48 n/a
1 6.06 6.36 6.97 6.52
1965-19692 6.19 n/a
1 5.32 5.71 7.20 6.48
1970-19743 5.41 3.15 4.75 4.74 6.78 5.95
1975-19793 3.88 2.40 3.43 3.23 4.88 4.59
19894 2.28 1.30 2.02 1.98 2.78 2.85
20005 1.82 1.17 1.53 1.76 2.15 2.25
2010-20506 1.85 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
SPC7
1964-1965 6.30 n/a1 5.90 6.47 6.61 6.02
1974-1976 4.90 3.46 4.11 3.74 6.25 6.12
1985-1986 2.73 1.74 2.49 2.25 3.10 4.05
1989 2.41 1.41 2.17 2.06 2.87 3.31
1991 2.17 1.13 1.95 1.97 2.67 2.98
1995-1996 2.02 1.26 1.66 1.89 2.44 2.85
Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios
23
Name Description
The Standard The proportion of total elderly population to total working-age
population
Type 1 The proportion of total elderly population to economically active working-age population
Type 2 The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to
economically active working-age population
Type 3 The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to economically active population aged 15 and over
Type 4 The proportion of non-economically active elderly population to
total working-age population
Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios
Source: Author’s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessed on 1 March 2010. 24
Standard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, the World, 1980-2020
Estimates Projections
Alternative Old-Age Dependency Ratios
Source: Author’s calculation, using the data of the International Labour Organization, http://laborsta.ilo.org/, accessed on 1 March 2010. 25
Standard and Alternative Old-age Dependency Ratios, Thailand, 1980-2020
Estimates Projections
Natural Increases and Net Migration
Remark: Natural Increase = Births – Deaths
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat,
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm accessed 8 March 2012. 26
Estimates (1950-2010) and Projections (2010-2050), Thailand
Thailand
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
19
50
-55
19
55
-60
19
60
-65
19
65
-70
19
70
-75
19
75
-80
19
80
-85
19
85
-90
19
90
-95
19
95
-00
20
00
-05
20
05
-10
20
10
-15
20
15
-20
20
20
-25
20
25
-30
20
30
-35
20
35
-40
20
40
-45
20
45
-50
('0
00
) p
ers
on
s
Natural Increase Net Migration