emission legislation comments to the health effects ... comments.pdf · health effects institute...

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ier Titel eingeben Comments To The Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0 4 BSFC – g/kWh 1 2 3 190 5 6 200 0.4 0.3 0.2 0 0.1 Particulates – g/kWh Legislative requirement (NO x ) Market requirement Trade-off with current technology (w/o EGR) for US 98 / EU 3 NO x – g/kWh 7 2005 2004 1998 Japan 1998 2010 2007 2004 USA 1994 India 2000 - 05 2005 - 08 2008 - 10 China 2000 2006 - 08 2002 - 03 Europe Euro 4/2005 Euro 5/2008 Euro 3/2000 Euro 2/1995 2 Emission Legislation Limits and fuel economy Light Duty Vehicle NOx Standards (g/km) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Tier 1 Tier 2 LEV2 ULEV2 SULEV Japan Euro 3 Euro 4 Petrol Diesel Light Duty Vehicle PM Standards (g/km) 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 Tier 1 Tier 2 LEV2 ULEV2 SULEV Japan 2002 Japan 2005 Euro 3 Euro 4

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Page 1: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 1

Comments To The Health Effects

InstituteSpecial Committee

On Emerging Technologies

Michael P. WalshMay 2005

230

220

210

0 4

BSF

C –

g/kW

h

1 2 3

190

5 6

200

0.4

0.3

0.2

0

0.1

Part

icul

ates

–g/

kWh

Legislativerequirement(NOx)

Marketrequirement

Trade-off with currenttechnology (w/o EGR)for US 98 / EU 3

NOx – g/kWh7

2005

2004

1998

Japan

19982010 2007

2004

USA

1994

India

2000 - 05

2005 - 082008 - 10

China

2000

2006 - 082002 - 03

Europe

Euro 4/2005Euro 5/2008 Euro 3/2000 Euro 2/1995

2

Emission Legislation Limits and fuel economy

Light Duty Vehicle NOx Standards (g/km)

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8

Tier 1

Tier 2

LEV2

ULEV2

SULEV

Japan

Euro 3

Euro 4

PetrolDiesel

Light Duty Vehicle PM Standards (g/km)

00.010.020.030.040.050.060.07

Tier

1

Tier

2

LEV2

ULE

V2

SULE

V

Jap

an 2002

Japan

2005

Euro

3

Euro

4

Page 2: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 2

Production of Diesel Passenger Cars

41%

48%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Direct Injection

Indirect Injection

Mio Vehicles

Diesel-share in overall passenger car production in %

DieselShare [%]

Western Europe

10%

90%

50%

Exceeded 50%In Oct ‘04

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

12,5

15,0

17,5

20,0

22,5

25,0

27,5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

part

icul

ate

mat

ter [

mg/

km]

EURO 3EURO 3 + DPFEURO 4EURO 4 + DPF

EURO 4

Distribution of certified PM-values of current Diesel Cars

ca. - 60%

ca. - 40%8,5 mg/km "Kanzler-Value"(BK + VDA 13. Juli ´04)

EU: PRE-NORM 5,0 mg/kmUBA proposalEURO 5: 2,5 mg/km

to achieve PM < 8,5 mg/km a filter efficency typically >> 50% is required

Cooled EGR and Particulate Reduction Hardware Requirements with DPF for Euro 4

Displacement0.9 - 1.4 liter / cyl.

Rated speed2200 - 2600 rpm

+Combustion system • high EGR tolerance• combustion bowl for low soot in oil• alternative combustion at part load

for temperature management+Diesel particulate filter >70% eff. Euro 4

Base engine:• Mechanically sound engine• Lube oil consumption < 0,1g/KWh• Peak firing pressure potential 200 bar

Euro 3

• High performance EGR-system• Improved vehicle cooling system• Fully flexible FIE with > 1600 bar• 2-stage turbocharging for > 32 kW/l

+

7

Advantages

Challenges

• High PM conversion rates

• Regeneration: min. 250°C exhaust gas temperature• Low sulfur fuel required to avoid too frequent

maintenance due to ash accumulation

Wall Flow FilterConversion of stored soot:C + 2 NO2 CO2 + 2 NO

at temp. 200 - 550 deg CC + O2 CO2

at temp. > 550 deg C

Source: Johnson Matthey

Filter SectionCatalyst

SectionInlet Head

Pt - Oxidation CatalystOxidation of NO to NO2:

2 NO + O2 2 NO2

Outlet Head

Emission Reduction Technology EGR + Particulate Reduction with DPF

8

Page 3: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 3

Spectacular Filter DamageRing-off-Cracks and Melting of the Cordierite Material source Johnson Matthey

and this is how it starts

Ash Plugging of Filter Cells Cooled EGR and Particulate Reduction Hardware Requirements with POC for Euro 4

Displacement0.9 - 1.4 liter / cyl.

Rated speed2200 - 2600 rpm

+Combustion system • high EGR tolerance• combustion bowl for low soot in oil• alternative combustion at part load

for temperature management+Particulate oxidation catalyst > 50% Euro 4

Base engine:• Mechanically sound engine• Lube oil consumption < 0,1g/KWh• Peak firing pressure potential 200 bar

Euro 3

• High performance EGR-system• Improved vehicle cooling system• Fully flexible FIE with > 1800 bar• 2-stage turbocharging for > 32 kW/l

+

12

Page 4: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 4

Emission Reduction Technology EGR + Particulate Reduction with POC

Advantages

Challenges

• No risk of filter blocking, no active regeneration• Small packaging volume

• Lower conversion rates compared to DPF• Requires higher fuel injection pressure • Low sulfur fuel required

Mechanism and Effectiveness:CarbonCarbon--PM oxidized by NOPM oxidized by NO22 being being formed in Oxicatformed in OxicatHC, SolHC, Sol--PM and CO oxidized in PM and CO oxidized in OxicatOxicatConversion Rates (ESC & ETC):Conversion Rates (ESC & ETC):

Particulates:Particulates: ηηPMPM ≈≈ 50%,50%,Target:Target: ηηPMPM ≈≈ 70%70%

by further by further developmentdevelopment

Hydrocarbon:Hydrocarbon: ηηHCHC ≈≈ 85%85%Carbon monoxide:Carbon monoxide: ηηCOCO ≈≈ 90%90%

Source: Emitec GmbH and MAN

Principle of Particle Deposition Principle of Particle Deposition in Porous Smooth Section of in Porous Smooth Section of Mixing SectionMixing Section

Porous Section

13

Displacement0.9 - 1.4 litre / cyl.

Rated speed2200 - 2600 rpm

Specific power26.4 kW / litre

+Combustion system • Combustion bowl for low soot in oil• Alternative combustion at part load

for temperature management

+SCR system > 60%NOx, 50%PM eff. Euro 4

Base engine:• Mechanically sound engine• Lube oil consumption < 0,1g/KWh• Peak firing pressure potential 135 bar

Euro 3

• No EGR-system• Fully flexible FIE with > 1600 bar• Peak firing pressure potential 145 bar• 4 Valve cylinder head

+

Engine Concept RequirementsHardware Requirements with SCR for Euro 4

14

SCR - Selective Catalytic Reduction

SCRcatalyst

UreainjectionPump

Air

Urea-SCRECU

CAN port

NOx sensor

Temp. in Temp. out

Urea-waterTank

Exhaust in Exhaust out

Intake air

Air flow sensor

15

Emission Reduction Technology Selective Catalytic Reduction - SCR

Advantages

Challenges

• Better fuel economy compared to EGR + part. reduction

• Urea infrastructure required• Regeneration: min. 200°C exhaust gas temperature• Low sulfur fuel required

16

Page 5: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

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Hier Titel eingeben 5

ESC Test

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8NOx Emissions (g/kWh)

Flue

l com

sum

ptio

n (%

)

Strategies for Euro 5+(?) with After Treatment

EURO 3 (Base line)

EUR

O IV

EUR

O V

EUR

O V

+ ?

SCR (95%)

SCR (95%)EGR + DPF

EGR + DPF

EGR + DPF + LNT

(USA-Proposal)

SCR (95%) SCR – Catatalyst (60%)SCR (80%)

opt. combustion

Potential of cooled EGR

190

200

210

220

230

1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0

NOx (g/kWh)

BSF

C (g

/kW

h)

EGR-Rate 10%EGR-Rate 14%EGR-Rate 20%EGR-Rate 25%BSFC for

SOI = 0°

Status May2002

Status Sep. 2002

Better EGR-Cooling& earlier SOI

Status Dec. 2003

ExtremeEGR cooling

Euro 3Euro 4Euro 5

18

US-EPA Nox Adsorber ConceptSchematic representation

6L / 194 kWHD Diesel Engine with

Common RailInjection Systemand Cooled EGR

Minor Exhaust Flow

Major Exhaust Flow

Secondary fuel injector (off)

Secondaryfuel injector(on)

NOx Desorption

NOx Adsorption

Two flow-pathsrejoined(net-oxidizingconditions)

Exhaust-flowcontrol valve

CDPF

CDPF

11

1

1 1

2

2

1 ... NOx sensors2 ... UEGO sensors (O2)

Achievements:hNOx = 94% steady state / 95% transientFuel consumption impact due to secondary fueland increased back press: + 2 to 3%

Oxicat5L

NOx Adsorbers(2 x 7) x 2 = 28L

Catalyzed DPFs2 x 19 = 38L

Total Catalyst Volume71L

202010-27

NOx Adsorbers

Source: SAE-Paper 2001-01-3619

19

Comparison of Future Emission Standards on HD vehicles

0.7

0.01

0.27

0.013

2.0

0.03

1.6

(Challenge target)About 1/3 of 0.7

NOx(g/kWh)

PM

)g/kWh)

JAPAN (Draft)

US (2010~)

EU(2008~)

Around 2009-10

US(2007~)0.027

2.0

0.13

3.2

0.03

3.5

NOx(g/kWh)

PM

)g/kWh) US

JAPAN

EU

Around 2005

Page 6: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

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Hier Titel eingeben 6

NOx NMHC CO AchievementPMTiming

0.005 0.08 43% 0.024 0.63 2009Passenger car ( )▲62% 0% 0%▲

Light-weight 0.005 0.08 43% 0.024 0.63 2009Truck ( )▲s (GVW1.7t or less) 62% 0% 0%▲

Middle-weight 0.007 0.15 40% 0.024 0.63 1.7 2.5t( )▲ ~(GVW over 1.7t 53% 0% 0% 2010~ ▲

3.5t or less) 2.5 3.5t~2009

Heavy-weight 0.01 (next target) 0.17 2.22 3.5 12t~GVW over 3.5t 63% 0.7 41% 0% 0% 2010( ) ▲ ▲( )

(challenge target) over 12tabout 1/3 of 0.7 2009

)( 88%▲1 Unit Heavy-weight :g/kWh※ . :

Except Heavy-weight :g/km2 Lower column means ratio of reduction from the new long-term standards※ .(enforce by 2005).3 GVW Gross weight Vehicle NMHC Non-methane hydrocarbons※ . : 、 :

Proposed Limit Values of DieselProposed Limit Values of Diesel--powered Vehicles in Japanpowered Vehicles in Japan(2009(2009~~)(Draft))(Draft)

Proposed Limit Value of Gasoline-powered Vehicles(2009) (Draft)

AchivementPM NOx NMHC CO、 、

periods

0.005Passenger car

Light-weight 0.005

t

(GVW1.7t or less) N.C. 2009

r

Middle-weight 0.007

u

c

(GVW over 1.7t3.5t or less)

k

Heavy-weight 0.01

s

( )GVW over 3.5tUnit Heavy-weight :g/kWh Except Heavy-weight :g/km※1 :GVW Gross weight Vehicle NMHC Non-methane hydrocarbons※2 : 、 :

note) Target values of particulate matter are applied only to lean-burn, direct-injection vehicles mounted with storing-type NOx reduction catalyst.

Comparison of PM exhaust emission

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

PM

(mg

/km)

10.15/11

CD34

P.C.MPI2005

☆☆☆G

P.C.GDI/L2000☆G

P.C.GDI/S2005☆☆☆

G

P.C.MPI/L2005☆☆☆

G

LDTMPI2000☆G

P.C.MPI2005

☆☆☆G

P.C.GDI/L2000

G

P.C.GDI/L2000

G

P.C.GDI/L2000 ☆G

P.C.GDI/L2000☆G

P.C.GDI/L2000☆☆

G

P.C.GDI/L2005☆☆☆

G

P.C.GDI/L2005☆☆☆

G

LPCMPI2000☆☆

G

MDTDPF2003

D

(JAMA DATA)

2003-04 2005 2009-10

Improvement of combustion chamber and air-intake system

○ ○ ○

Improvement of fuel injection system ○ ○ ○ Cooled EGR △ ○ ○

Turbo Charger △ ○ ○ HCCI(Homogeneous Charge

Compression Ignition) × × △?

NOx sensor × × ○ Urea sensor × × △or○?

Exhaust After-treatment Device Oxidation Catalyst △ ○ ○

Passive type Diesel Particulate Filter(DPF)

△ ○ ○

Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) × △ ○ NOx Adsorber × × ○

Note)○:Prevailed △:Limited use ×:Not Possible

Emission Reduction TechnologyEmission Reduction Technology((Diesel VehiclesDiesel Vehicles))

Page 7: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

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Hier Titel eingeben 7

Worldwide Motorcycle Emission Worldwide Motorcycle Emission RegulationsRegulations

2005/6/3

Japan

III Stage (2008)HC+NOx:1.0~1.25CO: 1.0~1.25

ChinaII Stage (2004)ECE40HC: 1.2NOx:0.3CO: 5.510,000 km

EuropeEU II (2003)ECE40Cold StartHC: 1.0NOx:0.3CO: 3.0

EU III (2006)HC: 0.8NOx:0.15CO: 2.030,000 km

(2006/2007)ECE40Cold StartHC: 0.3/0.5NOx:0.15CO: 2.012,000/24,000 km

IV Stage (2004)ECE40Cold StartHC+NOx:2.0CO: 7.015,000 km

Taiwan

II Stage (2005)IDC Cold StartHC+NOx:1.5CO: 1.530,000 km

India

Adopted65.0%

Not Adopted35.0%

Population

Adopted71.0%

Not Adopted29.0%

Vehicle Population

Developing Countries Which Have Adopted US Or EU

Standards For New VehiclesGrowth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988-2002

E:\Changhong CHEN\对外合作\能源基金会\交通项目\基础数据\机动车统计报表.xls

Page 8: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

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Hier Titel eingeben 8

Vehicle Growth in Beijing is Exploding

北京机动车增长情况

0

100

200

300

400

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006

年份

机动

车保

有量

(万

辆)

1st 1M for 48 years

2nd 1M for 6 years

3rd 1M for only 3 years?

Source: He Kebin

Beijing November 2004

Shanghai November 2004

Pollution Shifting From Coal Based ToVehicle Based

Emission Standards For New Vehicles

TimeCategory

Before2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

PC ECE 1503 EURO I ← ← ← EURO II ←

LDV& LDT ECE 1503 ← EURO I ← ← ← EURO IIHDDV None ← EURO I ← ← EURO II ←

Motorcycle ECE R 40 ← EURO I ← ← ← EURO II

Control Measures on Motor Vehicle Pollution

Beijing, Shanghai already Introduced Euro 2 in 2003

New Vehicle Emissions Standards(light duty vehicles)

Country 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 European Union Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5

Bangladesh Euro 2 (under discussion) Hong Kong, China Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4

Indiaa Euro 1 Euro 2 E3

Indiab E1 Euro 2 Euro 3

Indonesia Euro 2 Malaysia Euro 1 Euro 2 Nepal Euro 1 Philippines Euro 1 PRCa Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 PRCc Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Singaporee Euro 1 Euro 2 Singaporeg Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4 Sri Lanka Euro 1 Taipei,China US Tier 1 US Tier 2 for dieseld Thailand Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro4 Viet Name Euro 1 Viet Namf Euro 1 a Entire country

b Delhi and other cities; Euro 2 introduced in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai in 2001; Euro 2 in Bangalore, Hyderabad, Khampur, Pune and Ahmedabad in 2003, Euro 3 to be introduced in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad in 2005c Beijing and Shanghai

d Gasoline vehicles under consideratione for gasoline vehiclesf for diesel vehiclesg for all types of diesel vehicles

Page 9: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 9

New Vehicle Standards in IndiaEntire Country

Euro 2 – April 2005

Euro 3 – April 2010

Major Cities

Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad & Ahmedabad, Pune Surat, Kanpur & Agra Already Euro 2

Tighter emission norms for all private vehicles, city public service vehicles and city commercial vehicles

Euro 3 From April 2005

Euro 4 From April 2010

Current 2005 20100

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 National Metros

India Diesel Fuels Road Map

Some parts of Country will not meet 2005 schedule; Largest Reliance Refinery Now Making 10 PPM

Exhaust Emission Standards in Korea

Gasoline Passenger Car- LEV of LEV-1 standard was applied in Jan. 2003.- ULEV of LEV-2 standard (of CARB) will be applied from 2006.1 with a phase-in of

25/50/75/100%.

Diesel HDV - EURO-3 standard was applied in 2002.7/2003.7.- EURO-4 standard will be applied from 2006.10/2008.1. - ESC/ETC test mode will be adopted.

Diesel Passenger Car- EURO-3 will be applied from 2005.1, but half of the cars will have to install DPF.- EURO-4 will start from 2006.

Diesel LDT - EURO-3 was applied in 2002.7/2003.7.- EURO-4 will be applied from 2006.1/2007.1.

Page 10: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 10

Taiwan New Vehicle Emissions Standards

Vehicles Standards Effective date

STAGEⅢ 1/1/1999

STAGEⅣ 1/1/2008

STAGEⅢ 1/7/1999

STAGEⅣ 1/1/2007

STAGEⅣ 1/1/2004

STAGEⅤ 1/7/2007

Diesel cars

Motorcycles

Gasoline cars

1. The emission standards of gasoline cars and diesel cars: present-USA standard, STAGEⅣ- EURO Ⅳ.

2. After enter the WTO, the emission standard of motorcycle will take the EURO standard or USA standard.

Tier 2, bin 5

Possible E5In 2010

Euro 3

Fuel in Taiwan

Fuel Items 2002 2005 2007

Benzene (vol%), max 1.0 1.0

Sulfur (ppmw), max 180 50

RVP (psi), max 8.9 8.7

Oxygen (wt%), max 2.0 2.7

VOCs+NOx(mg/km), max 1700 -

TOXICs(mg/km), max 48 -

Aromatics (vol%), max - 36

gasoline

Alkene (vol%), max - 18

Sulfur (ppmw), max 350 50

Cetane Index, min 48 - diesel

Aromatics (vol%), max - 35

The composition and performance standards in fuel(1) The composition and performance standards in gasoline and diesel

for vehicles took into forces in 2000.

(2) Gradually lower the sulfur content in diesel from 5,000 ppmw in 1989 to 50 ppmw in 2005.

Brazil

Passenger Cars & Light Commercial Vehicles

US EPA 1983 Standards Since 1997

Tier 1 Phased in 2005-2007 (40/70/100%)

FedLev in 2009

No Diesel Cars Allowed

Heavy Duty Trucks & Buses

Euro 3 Phased in 2004-2006

Euro 4 in 2009

Fuels

Diesel Fuel S in City from 2000 to 500 in 2005 & to 50 in 2009; on rural areas from 3500 to 2000 in 2005 & to 500 in 2009

Gasoline S from 1000 to 400 in 2004 & to 80 in 2008

State of Sao Paulo Gearing Up To Push Sulfur Issue

Mobile Sources Program In Mexico

Tighten emission limits for new gasoline and diesel vehicles.

Gasoline:

Tier I first introduced in 1999 (US-EPA-94).

Tier II to be introduced in 2006, under discussion.

Diesel:

EPA-98 currently in place.

Standards for new diesel vehicles under discussion.

Key Issue Is Fuel Quality – Sulfur

EPA Retrofit Initiative

Page 11: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 11

EGYPTLIBYAALGERIA

MOROCCO

NIGERMAURITANIA

WESTERNSAHARA

MALI

CHAD SUDAN

ZAIRE

ANGOLA

NAMIBIA

SOUTHAFRICA

BOTSWANA

ETHIOPIA

SOMALIA

NIGERIAGUINEA

TUNISIA

ERITREA

CENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLIC

MADAGASCAR

TANZANIA

GABON

BURKINA

GHANACOTE

D'IVOIRE

ZAMBIA

ZIMBABWE

CAMEROON

TOGO

BENIN

UGANDA

KENYA

MOZAMBIQUE

LESOTHO

SWAZILAND

CONGO

SENEGALTHE GAMBIA

GUINEA-BISSAU

SIERRA-LEONE

LIBERIA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

ANGOLA

RWANDABURUNDI

MALAWI

DJIBOUTI

Africa

•50% of Gasoline Now Lead Free•Most Countries Committed by 2005/6

•Sulfur Discussion Beginning•MMT Substitute?

Lead Free Gasoline Worldwide2004

Lead FreeLeaded

No Controls3.4% Engine Modifications

3.5%TWC

20.1%

Euro3/Tier 170.8%

Euro4/LEV2.2%

2000

No Controls3.5%

Engine Modifications3.8%

TWC24.1%

Euro3/Tier 17.8%

Euro4/LEV59.0%

Euro5/LEV21.8%

2005

No Controls2.7%

Engine Modifications1.0% TWC

2.1%Euro3/Tier 1

13.2%Euro4/LEV

18.9%Euro5/LEV2

62.1%

2010

No Controls3.1%

Engine Modifications0.6%

TWC0.5%

Euro3/Tier 18.7%Euro4/LEV

8.9%

Euro5/LEV278.1%

2015

No Controls3.6%

Engine Modifications0.7%

TWC0.6%Euro3/Tier 1

1.9%Euro4/LEV

8.3%

Euro5/LEV284.8%

2020

Global Distribution of Emissions Controls

New Gasoline Cars (000)

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mill

ions

Advanced CatalystsCatalysts

Advanced Engine ModsEngine Mods

No Controls

Global Distribution of Emissions Controls

Motorcycles

Page 12: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 12

Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Spreading

050

100150200250300350400450500

PPM

US

US 2006

EU 2000

EU 2005

EU 2005-9

Denmar

k

Sweden C

lass 1

German

y 2003Ja

pan

Japan

2004

Japan

2005

Hong K

ong

South K

orea 2006

Taiwan

2005

Austra

lia 2

006

Thailan

d 2010

Santia

go, Chile

2004

Singap

ore 2006

Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Spreading

05

101520253035404550

PPM

US 2006

EU 2005

EU 2005-9

Denmar

k

Sweden C

lass 1

German

y 2003

Japan

2004

Japan

2005

Hong K

ong

South K

orea 2006

Taiwan

2005

Austra

lia 2

006

Thailan

d 2010

Santia

go, Chile

2004

Singap

ore 2006

2,000 2005 2010 2015 20200

5

10

15

Thou

sand

s

Euro 5Euro 4

Euro 3Euro 2

Euro 1 No Controls

Global Distribution of Emissions Controls

Diesel Cars (000)

Page 13: Emission Legislation Comments To The Health Effects ... Comments.pdf · Health Effects Institute Special Committee On Emerging Technologies Michael P. Walsh May 2005 230 220 210 0

Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 13

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

0

10

20

30

40

(10^12))Global Road Vehicle Kilometers Traveled

MinibusesBuses3-Wheeler2-WheelerHvy TruckMED TrLDDVLDGV

Source: WBCSD

Global Trends in Vehicle Kilometers Traveled

…and even more significant freight transport growth: 2,4 % /year

Problem Could Get WorseDue To High Growth Especially In Asia

1990 1999 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Million Barrels/Day Oil Equivalent

OtherBunkerJet FuelDieselGasoline

Source: EIA/DOE (2001)

Recent and Projected World Transportation Fuel Demand

Transportation is the Fastest Growing CO2 Emissions Source

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

500

1000

1500

2000

MTOE

Fuel CellCNG

Hybrid DieselDiesel

Hybrid Gasoline Gasoline

Source: WBCSD

Worldwide Fuel Consumption by Light Duty Vehicle

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Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 14

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

MTOE

Fuel CellCNG

Hybrid DieselDiesel

Hybrid Gasoline Gasoline

Source: WBCSD

Worldwide Fuel Consumption by Light Duty Vehicle

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20500%

5%

10%

15%

Percent

OECD North AmericaOECD EuropeOECD PacificFSUEastern EuropeChinaOther AsiaIndiaMiddle EastLatin AmericaAfrica

Source: WBCSD

Ethanol Blend Share into Gasoline

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20500%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Percent

OECD North AmericaOECD EuropeOECD PacificFSUEastern EuropeChinaOther AsiaIndiaMiddle EastLatin AmericaAfrica

Source: WBCSD

Ethanol Blend Share Derived From Grains

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20500%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Percent

OECD North AmericaOECD EuropeOECD PacificFSUEastern EuropeChinaOther AsiaIndiaMiddle EastLatin AmericaAfrica

Source: WBCSD

Ethanol Blend Share Derived From Sugar Cane

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Euro 03.06.2005

Hier Titel eingeben 15

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20500%

0%

0%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Percent

OECD North AmericaOECD EuropeOECD PacificFSUEastern EuropeChinaOther AsiaIndiaMiddle EastLatin AmericaAfrica

Source: WBCSD

Ethanol Blend Share Derived From Cellulose

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20500%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Percent

OECD North AmericaOECD EuropeOECD PacificFSUEastern EuropeChinaOther AsiaIndiaMiddle EastLatin AmericaAfrica

Source: WBCSD

Biodiesel Blend Share

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20500%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Percent

OECD North AmericaOECD EuropeOECD PacificFSUEastern EuropeChinaOther AsiaIndiaMiddle EastLatin AmericaAfrica

Source: WBCSD

Hydrogen Derived From Low GHG Sources

(Renewable, Nuclear)