Elements of Water Security

Gordon Young President International Association of Hydrological Sciences

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Water Security in Canada

Vancouver, 17 February 2012 (evening panel discussion)

Global Precipitation changes 1990 - 2090

The Climate Moisture Index, representing

climatically-induced water variability

Elements of water security

Diverse uses of water • Human well-being – health, food security

• Economic development (energy, industry)

• Social development

• Water to sustain ecosystems

Water as a threat • Floods

• Droughts

• Pollution

Basic Human Well-

being – water for

health and food security

Ataturk dam, Euphrates River, Turkey

18

4

85

21

12

6

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20

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11

4

58

1

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0

43

0

2108

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000 C

am

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Eth

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nya

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c. co

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mp

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kW

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ita

500 kWh/capita/year minimum consumption

for reasonable quality of life

Energy use per person in Africa kWh/cap/year

United States consumption – 12000kWh/capita/yr

The Energy Linkage

Social development

- The need for education

- The effects of lack of drinking water and

sanitation on education

Water for natural ecosystems

Ex

trem

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yd

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al v

ari

ab

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y:

flo

od

s an

d d

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ts

FLOODS

AND

DROUGHTS

Water as a threat: • Floods from the land

• Storm surges, tsunamis from oceans

OXYGEN STARVED ZONES

Regions of stress

Non-sustainable use

Canada – elements of water security in a land of snow and ice

• Ice-jam floods

• Global warming more pronounced in high latitudes and high altitudes

• Permafrost retreat

• Mountains as water towers of snow and ice

• The effects of shorter winters

• The effects of glacier retreat

River ice jams

Polar ice cover Sept 2001 Sept 2007

1 10 05 1 12 05 1 02 06 1 04 06 1 06 06 1 07 06

Permafrost thaw

Ice roads – the effects of early

break-up

Western Canada

Annual Precipitation Annual Snowfall

Rockies in winter

Average change (days/yr) in snow

cover duration in the second half (Feb.-Jul.) of the snow year over the period 1972-2000.

Derived from the

NOAA weekly satellite snow cover dataset

The importance of mountains as ‘Water Towers’

High inter-annual variability in precipitation

Athabasca (photo: D Latimer)

Peyto Glacier 2001

Annual Bow River (above Banff) Basin yield with glacier wastage and storage super-imposed

-100

0

100

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1300

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17001

95

2

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90

19

92

yie

ld (

x10

6m

3)

1970, high wastage/yield proportion (13.2%)

Annual Bow River Yield

Annual Glacier Wastage Yield

Average yield ~ 1250

7 Highest wastage/yield

ratio years

7 Lowest flow years

Observed monthly hydrograph for Bow River above Banff 1969-1972 with modelled

wastage flow super-imposed

0

100

200

300

400

500

1969 1970 1971 1972

Mo

nth

ly Y

ield

(m

3x1

06)

Bow River Basin yield

Glacier Wastage

Thank You