electric vehicles in the usa: just the facts

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Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts Excerpts from a Report to NADA Glenn Mercer SCADA October 14, 2021

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Page 1: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Electric Vehicles in the USA:

Just the Facts

Excerpts from a Report to NADA

Glenn Mercer

SCADA

October 14, 2021

Page 2: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Introduction

Findings

Summary

Contents

Page 3: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Introduction

This is the abridged Presentation Version of the longer Reference Deck.

Disclaimers:• The views expressed in this report are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of NADA

• Our geographic focus is the American market, so our findings may not apply elsewhere

• Our product focus is on retailed LD (light-duty) EVs, not wholesaled fleet vehicles, and not MD or HD trucks

Purpose:To provide dealers with facts about EVs that will assist them to estimate the future rate of adoption of EVs, to assess

their likely impact on dealership operations, and to take appropriate action to be ready for that impact. Our purpose is

not to argue the merits or politics of EVs. As a compendium of facts and findings, there is not a “storyline” present.

Definitions:Throughout this report we will take “EV” to mean primarily Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), such as a Chevrolet Bolt or

a Tesla, not Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), such as a Toyota Prius Prime, although this distinction has not

been made consistently in the industry and so may affect comparisons of different sales forecasts.

Approach:Throughout this report we will:

• Favor data and facts over assertions and arguments, and real-world in-use data over modeled data

• Avoid agenda-driven “think pieces” from NGOs both pro- and con-EV

• Try to point out where there are significant arguments on consensus on an issue

• Slide contents in red indicate my opinions, rather than facts

Page 4: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

EVs in America: the Situation Today

The EV puzzle today is one of strong supply growth…

EV available now or later in 2021

Audi e-trons (various including Q4)

BMW i3, i4

Byton m-byte

Canoo truck?

Chevrolet Bolt, Bolt EUV

Ford Mustang Mach-e

Genesis G80

GMC Hummer EV

Honda Clarity

Hyundai Ioniq

Hyundai Kona

Jaguar I-Pace

Karma GS

Kia Niro

Lordstown Endurance

Lucid Air

Mercedes EQS

Mini

Nissan Leaf, Ariya

Polestar 2

Porsche Taycan

Rivian R1S, R1T

Tesla S3XY Cybertruck?

Volvo X/C40 Recharge?

VW ID4

Available in 2022 (incremental)

Audi A6 etron

Alfa EV

BMW Inext/ix?, 7

Bollinger B1, B2

Cadillac Lyriq

Fisker Ocean

Ford F150 Lightning (2021?)

Jeep Wrangler Magneto

Kia EV6

Land Rover EV

Lexus EV

Maserati GT, Grecale

Mazda MX-30?

Mercedes EQA, EQB, EQC, G-Class

Nissan Maxima EV

Polestar 3

Subaru Solterra

Tesla Roadster

Toyota BZ4X

VW ID Space Vizzion

Available in 2023 (incremental)

Aston Martin Lagonda

BMW iX?

Buick EV

Cadillac Celestiq?, SUV

Chevrolet Silverado EV (2024?)

Faraday Future FF91

Ford/Lincoln EV CUV

Genesis Essentia

Honda EV

Porsche Macan

Toyota/Subaru EV CUV

VW ID Buzz

Notes:

1. This list is certain to be inaccurate, as OEMs change

plans, model names, availability dates, etc.

2. Sources include EPRI, Car and Driver, US (DOE,

EVadoption.com, etc. When they disagreed, I went with

what the OEM website said

3. I have left out a few ultra-low-production supercars, and

oddities like the Kandi

4. These are BEV only, no PHEV

5. I did not enforce rigor re model variants... thus calling the

Audi etron Q4 one model, not Audi etron Q4 and Audi

etron Q4 Sportback as two models

6. Commercial vehicles (e.g. Ford Transit EV) are excluded,

but the line between personal and commercial use is blurry

(e.g., Canoo)

Page 5: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

EVs in America: the Situation Today

…. meeting more modest demand growth.

Page 6: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

So… is today different than a century ago?

Page 7: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Introduction

Findings

Summary

Contents

Page 8: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Index of Findings Chapters

1. Inputs to the EV market

• Customers

• Vehicles

• Batteries

• Charging

• Governments

• Economics

3. Outcomes

• For Sales

• On Dealers

2. Impacts of EVs elsewhere

• Environment

• Grid

• Employment

• Geopolitics

Page 9: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Customers

EV shoppers and owners are evolving from wealthy tech-focused pioneers adding

cars to their driveway, to still-well-off but more differentiated adopters who more

often use their EV as a primary vehicle.

1. Interest in and approval of EVs is growing, though consideration still lags

2. In terms of key buying factors:

• EV cost matters, but it is unclear how much it does: general appeal and

suitability for purpose tend to trump price

• Charging baffles customers, and time-to-charge is a major issue

• Range is crucial: so crucial that we can skip the rational arguments (“you don’t

need 400 miles!”) and accept that Americans want big range numbers

• Choice of vehicle (e.g., CUV) is improving and raising consumer interest

• The “greenness” of EVs is widely accepted and so may no longer be a factor

3. Converting EV considerers to buyers will require confidence, obtained both from

education (learning about EVs) and trial (experiencing EVs). Dealers can help!

Page 10: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Customers

EV shoppers and owners are evolving from wealthy tech-focused pioneers adding

cars to their driveway, to still-well-off but more differentiated adopters who more

often use their EV as a primary vehicle.

1. Interest in and approval of EVs is growing, though consideration still lags

2. In terms of key buying factors:

• EV cost matters, but it is unclear how much it does: general appeal and

suitability for purpose tend to trump price

• Charging baffles customers, and time-to-charge is a major issue

• Range is crucial: so crucial that we can skip the rational arguments (“you don’t

need 400 miles!”) and accept that Americans want big range numbers

• Choice of vehicle (e.g., CUV) is improving and raising consumer interest

• The “greenness” of EVs is widely accepted and so may no longer be a factor

3. Converting EV considerers to buyers will require confidence, obtained both from

education (learning about EVs) and trial (experiencing EVs). Dealers can help!

Page 11: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Vehicles

1. Emissions regulations drive EV adoption globally, and thus – inevitably - the US

2. This will happen despite good arguments for the steady improvement in ICE fuel

economy and emissions, especially in a PHEV format

3. A flood of new EV models is headed our way, which should drive demand

(“People buy what they see on the road or in their neighbors’ driveways.”)

4. These new models are entering new segments, further increasing appeal: if an

EV pickup truck succeeds, this may be an inflection point for demand

5. Dealers are eager to receive – and show to customers – newer EV models that

are more competitive in both performance and in body style.

Page 12: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

EV pickups may be the market turning point

America is “a truck market that also has cars,” meaning that if EV pickups become

popular, the EV transition would dramatically accelerate.

Source: Cox Automotive

Page 13: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Batteries

1. Range is improving fast, to levels that may be broadly acceptable to Americans

2. Range degradation is a problem, but to date manageable. However, if impatient

drivers insist on frequent use of fast-charging, battery life can shrink

3. Battery cost has been falling rapidly, such that if materials prices do not spike,

OEMs may be able to make profits on these cars in a few years

4. However, battery materials pose issues (environmental, political, humanitarian)

5. As for safety, EV battery fires are not more likely than ICE engine fires. But

media coverage of EV fires may solidify the perception that the danger is high.

6. Solid-state battery tech is a hot topic - but may not arrive in force for years.

7. Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV) remain serious long-term rivals to EVs, but consensus

is that they will not arrive in large numbers much before 2030.

8. Dealers again can educate consumers here, e.g., as regards improved range,

improved battery life, and relatively low fire risk

Page 14: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Batteries

1. Range is improving fast, to levels that may be broadly acceptable to Americans

2. Range degradation is a problem, but to date manageable. However, if impatient

drivers insist on frequent use of fast-charging, battery life can shrink

3. Battery cost has been falling rapidly, such that if materials prices do not spike,

OEMs may be able to make profits on these cars in a few years

4. However, battery materials pose issues (environmental, political, humanitarian)

5. As for safety, EV battery fires are not more likely than ICE engine fires. But

media coverage of EV fires may solidify the perception that the danger is high.

6. Solid-state battery tech is a hot topic - but may not arrive in force for years.

7. Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV) remain serious long-term rivals to EVs, but consensus

is that they will not arrive in large numbers much before 2030.

8. Dealers again can educate consumers here, e.g., as regards improved range,

improved battery life, and relatively low fire risk

Page 15: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Charging An enormous network of chargers (beyond home units) will be required to fuel an

expanding EV fleet. That network is growing rapidly, while bottlenecks do exist.

However, from a customer perspective, charging presents additional issues which

makes charging inconvenient relative to gasoline pumping:

1. There are multiple types of charger… gas pumps are standardized

2. Charging rate depends on vehicle capacity as well as charger output… while

every car receives gasoline at the same rate

3. Gas prices vary over time but tend to a narrow range at any given time… but

electric rates can vary dramatically and in unexpected ways

4. There are numerous “front line” issues with charging, from charger time limits to

billing complexities and out-of-service units

5. Overall, the charging network will continue to expand and improve, but it

remains not as easy for customers as pumping gas.

While dealers cannot resolve the charging problem on their own, they can inform

customers as to where, both in their home areas and on the road, they can charge,

how they can charge, which apps can find them chargers while traveling, etc.

Page 16: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Charging An enormous network of chargers (beyond home units) will be required to fuel an

expanding EV fleet. That network is growing rapidly, while bottlenecks do exist.

However, from a customer perspective, charging presents additional issues which

makes charging inconvenient relative to gasoline pumping:

1. There are multiple types of charger… gas pumps are standardized

2. Charging rate depends on vehicle capacity as well as charger output… while

every car receives gasoline at the same rate

3. Gas prices vary over time but tend to a narrow range at any given time… but

electric rates can vary dramatically and in unexpected ways

4. There are numerous “front line” issues with charging, from charger time limits to

billing complexities and out-of-service units

5. Overall, the charging network will continue to expand and improve, but it

remains not as easy for customers as pumping gas.

While dealers cannot resolve the charging problem on their own, they can inform

customers as to where, both in their home areas and on the road, they can charge,

how they can charge, which apps can find them chargers while traveling, etc.

Page 17: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Government Incentives

1. Governments everywhere see (consumer) incentives (tax rebates, grants, etc.) as

crucial to bridging the gap between an ICE present and an EV future.

2. Increasingly politicians are considering “sticks” and much as “carrots”

3. Their spending on these programs is absolutely high (total dollars spent) and

has been relatively inefficient (dollar spent per EV-linked emissions reduction).

4. Incentives have proliferated in a confusing way within and across states.

5. While incentives work in that more EVs are sold as a result, their side effects are

numerous and often detrimental: driving timing of purchase rather than the

purchase itself, benefitting the wealthy disproportionately, failing to compensate

for inter-state emissions “leakage,” and coming and going unpredictably

6. Dealers, given their intimate understanding of what actually drives the

customer’s purchase decision, can assist governments to design EV incentives

that work effectively and efficiently to accelerate the EV transition.

Page 18: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Government Incentives

1. Governments everywhere see (consumer) incentives (tax rebates, grants, etc.) as

crucial to bridging the gap between an ICE present and an EV future.

2. Increasingly politicians are considering “sticks” and much as “carrots”

3. Their spending on these programs is absolutely high (total dollars spent) and

has been relatively inefficient (dollar spent per EV-linked emissions reduction).

4. Incentives have proliferated in a confusing way within and across states.

5. While incentives work in that more EVs are sold as a result, their side effects are

numerous and often detrimental: driving timing of purchase rather than the

purchase itself, benefitting the wealthy disproportionately, failing to compensate

for inter-state emissions “leakage,” and coming and going unpredictably

6. Dealers, given their intimate understanding of what actually drives the

customer’s purchase decision, can assist governments to design EV incentives

that work effectively and efficiently to accelerate the EV transition.

Page 19: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Economics

Incentives can temporarily boost the market by “buying down” expensive EVs to

make them retail-price-competitive with ICE. But in the long run EVs must become

economically competitive with ICE costs in two ways: from the customer point of

view (the Total Cost of Owning and a car (TCO)); and from the manufacturer point of

view (the cost of producing an EV versus an ICE).

1. The manufacturer perspective. As battery costs continue to drop and as

OEMs get more experience building EVs, we are moving to a point where EV

and ICE will cost similar amounts to produce. (Again, depending on the

behavior of raw material prices, battery supply and demand, etc.)

2. The customer perspective. The TCO advantage of ICE over EV is shrinking

and will continue to shrink, but focus on TCO may be misplaced: on the one

hand TCO calculations are complex and unreliable; and on the other, buyers

do not seem to pay much attention to TCO. Dealers can educate customers

as to how an EV may indeed pay off for them over time, on a TCO basis.

Page 20: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

When will EVs be cost-competitive?

A FAMOUS (FAILED) FORECAST

"I feel pretty confident we can get to a compelling sub-$30,000

car in five years," crackled a voice on Boston's NPR station

WBUR. That was Elon Musk in a radio interview back in 2009.

Twelve years later, Tesla has yet to sustain production of an

electric vehicle deliverable for under $40,000. In fact, no

automaker has yet turned their invested billions into the electric

car's Model T moment. Even this new generation of non-Tesla

EVs aimed at the mass market—think the Volkswagen ID.4 that

starts at $39,995 and others—are hardly cheap.

The Drive June 7, 2021

Page 21: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Consensus is for EV/ICE cost parity in the 2020s

Source: US EPA

Page 22: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Environment

The environmental impact of any vehicle comes in three pieces:

1. MANUFACTURING (and recycling) the vehicle: because of the massive amount

of mining that must be done to extract the raw materials needed for EV batteries,

producing an EV generates more GHG emissions than does making an ICE.

2. However, OPERATING an EV is more energy-efficient than running an ICE, as the

EV converts more of its fuel (electricity) into useful power than an ICE does.

3. And POWERING the EV (creating the electricity it uses), is generally lower in

emissions than for the ICE. If the grid is “dirty” electrical grid, then the ICE may

have the advantage. But for the US grid as a whole, EVs are greener.

Net, therefore, the consensus is that EVs are better for the environment than ICE.

However, USA GHG emissions are so huge, and the fleet turns over so slowly, that

growing EV sales may not make a big difference to total emissions for years.

American consumers generally already consider EVs to be “green,” but dealers may

have a role in discussing with consumers the issues involved (e.g. BEV vs. PHEV).

Page 23: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

23

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2020

history projections

U.S. electricity generation from selected fuels

AEO2021 Reference casebillion kilowatthours

natural gas

renewables

nuclear

coal

40%

21%

19%

19%

36%

42%

11%

11%0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

U.S. renewable electricity generation, including end use

AEO2021 Reference casebillion kilowatthours

2020

history projections

solar

wind

geothermal

hydroelectric

other16%

41%2%

34%7%

46%

47%

34%

13%

2%

4%

The US power grid is getting “greener”Zero-emission sources (nuclear+renewables) are projected to grow from 40% of

generation in 2020 to over 50% by 2050, due primarily to an upsurge in solar power.

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2021; CA is #1 for renewables capacity installed, TX second

Page 24: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Geopolitics

Leaving aside the environmental issues involved in sourcing battery materials,

there are at least two geopolitical concerns regarding the present EV transition:

1. Unless the USA undertakes dramatic action, it will find its car market, to the

extent it shifts to EVs, more dependent on Chinese supplies

2. Beyond that, to the extent that EVs become globally dominant, the USA could

find its leadership in the automotive industry “hollowed out,” as has happened

before in the production of textiles, furniture, appliances, and more.

Both these issues have been and are being addressed by both the past and the

current administration, but the author has no view on the adequacy of those

actions. It is a remarkably unpolarized topic.

Page 25: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

China is to batteries as OPEC was to oil

China dominates both upstream and downstream EV battery supply

Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence; cathode chart from Roskill

NCM, NCA, LFP battery plant

capacity through 2023

Page 26: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Recap: to this point

1. Inputs to the EV market

• Customers

• Vehicles

• Batteries

• Charging

• Governments

• Economics

3. Outcomes

• For Sales

• On Dealers

2. Impacts of EVs elsewhere

• Environment

• Grid

• Employment

• Geopolitics

Page 27: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

EV Sales. Up, But How Far?

There are so many factors that go into the EV equation, each of which itself must

be forecast, that it is inevitable that EV sales forecasts will vary widely. Is there

any consensus at all around the predicted USA EV sales rate?

At the basic level, yes: every EV sales forecast sees growing EV market share.

Beyond that, there is some consensus that EV* share in 2025 will be 5-10%.

Further, there is some consensus that EV share in 2030 will roughly double that

Here are the forecasts we’ve collected (in %, EV market share):

• 2025: 9, 6.5, 8, 5+, 7-10, 8, 7, 5, 8, 10, 12, 10, 7, 8-20 (!) – average ~9.5%

• 2030: 13, 12, 20, 17, 11.5, 8, 20, 30, 34, 20, 17, 17-40 (!) – average ~19%

• The sources for these projections include: IHS, McKinsey, CAR, EIA, Goldman

Sachs, BNEF, UBS, Alliance Bernstein, LMC, AutoPacific, Morgan Stanley, BCG,

Citigroup, Navigant/Guidehouse, PWC, DB, Jeffries, Boston U., etc.

• The Dealership of Tomorrow (2021 version) 2025 EV forecast: 7% share.

*Note again that some forecasts bundle PHEV in with BEV to forecast “PEV” (plug-in vehicles), while others forecast

only BEV. No forecaster sees PHEV as more than 15% or so of eventual total PEV sales, so this variance does not

have material impact on the overall forecast levels.

Page 28: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

EV sales: a few recent (2021) forecasts

2025 USA BEV % of SAAR:

BofA/ML: 5%

Citi: 12%

Cox: 9%

PWC: 5-8%

SEMA: 7% (BEV only)

NB: in some cases, the

author estimated numbers

from graphics: any errors

as a result are his alone.

Page 29: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

EV Sales: What Could Change Consensus?

Are there “wild cards” that might alter the consensus of steadily upward? A few…

- “Hindenburg Event:” a major multi-car EV battery fire (e.g., in a parking garage)

+ “ICE Age:” one or more major cities bans ICE downtown (now, not in 2035)

- “China Syndrome:” political friction throttles supply of batteries to US market

+ “Apple Cart:” Apple enters the market: >110 million Americans have iPhones

-/+ “Gas Shock:” oil prices move sharply: gas goes to $1.50 (-) or $5.00 (+)

+ “Convoy:” one or more EV pickup trucks becomes a major success

- “Green Backlash:” public turns against EVs due to raw material issues

+ “OEM Shock and Awe:” one or more incumbent OEMs (VW?) becomes very

aggressive, e.g., free home charger, free charging, 500-mile range

+ “Money Changes Everything:” Biden admin. launches massive EV incentives

and tightens MPG/GHG limits drastically

and…?

Page 30: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Dealers: Impact of Higher EV Sales

As EV sales grow, what is the impact on dealers? The answers vary by function.

A. Sales: mildly negative?

• Some volume loss to new EV entrants, to the extent they do not use dealers

• Some investment required in sales force training

B. Service: probably negative… eventually

• Likely decline in most service revenue, relative to ICE (this is not new, for dealers)

• Some investment required in tech training, and in special EV service equipment

• Possible increase in service retention, given the advanced technology of EVs

• Possible increase in collision repair revenue, and a likely increase in tire sales

C. Overall role: possibly negative, if not managed well

• Proliferating OEM attempts to alter the way dealers interact with customers can make

sense (to the extent customer needs are indeed evolving), but can also be counter-

productive (by reducing the dealer’s role at the very point in time when dealers’

proven ability to communicate, market, and sell the benefits of new vehicle

technologies is most required, in order to advance America’s EV transition)

Page 31: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

B. Impact of Higher EV Sales on the Service Dept.Service: certain eventual decline (~50% vs. ICE?) in revenue

• EVs require less maintenance than equivalent ICEs, due to fewer moving parts in the engine or

motor, and the absence of extensive powertrain-cooling and powertrain-lubrication systems*

• Consensus is that this spend is perhaps typically 40% lower annually, as per reports from fleet

operators, Wall Street analysts, interviews with dealers who carry both EV and ICE (e.g.,

Nissan, Chevrolet), and ICDP in the UK (who have studied this issue in depth)**.

• There are two offsetting factors:• Service volume is driven by installed base vs. annual sales: as PWC points out, their forecast of EV

new-sales shares of ~6% in 2025 and 14% in 2030 results in a total USA fleet in 2030 that is only 4%

EV. Implication: dealers have time to react.

• There is some early evidence that with EV dealers experience higher service retention (e.g., “I don’t

make much money per Leaf, but I get every Leaf”): the independent aftermarket has not yet

penetrated far into EV work. But this is dealers’ business to lose.

• Finally, we’ve been here before: service per car (adjusted for inflation) has fallen over the years

as car quality has soared. Dealers compensated with menu pricing, longer service hours,

pickup/dropoff, working on older cars, etc. We trust they can rise to the EV challenge as well.

* note the use of the word “extensive:” many EVs do have battery cooling systems, and gearbox lubrication systems

** there are nuances within this overall result: dealers report faster tire wear with EVs, due to their heavy battery packs, and

many note that EV service has a higher labor:parts ratio then with ICE

Page 32: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

B. Impact of Higher EV Sales on the Service Dept.Service: certain eventual decline (~50% vs. ICE?) in revenue

• EVs require less maintenance than equivalent ICEs, due to fewer moving parts in the engine or

motor, and the absence of extensive powertrain-cooling and powertrain-lubrication systems*

• Consensus is that this spend is perhaps typically 40% lower annually, as per reports from fleet

operators, Wall Street analysts, interviews with dealers who carry both EV and ICE (e.g.,

Nissan, Chevrolet), and ICDP in the UK (who have studied this issue in depth)**.

• There are two offsetting factors:• Service volume is driven by installed base vs. annual sales: as PWC points out, their forecast of EV

new-sales shares of ~6% in 2025 and 14% in 2030 results in a total USA fleet in 2030 that is only 4%

EV. Implication: dealers have time to react.

• There is some early evidence that with EV dealers experience higher service retention (e.g., “I don’t

make much money per Leaf, but I get every Leaf”): the independent aftermarket has not yet

penetrated far into EV work. But this is dealers’ business to lose.

• Finally, we’ve been here before: service per car (adjusted for inflation) has fallen over the years

as car quality has soared. Dealers compensated with menu pricing, longer service hours,

pickup/dropoff, working on older cars, etc. We trust they can rise to the EV challenge as well.

* note the use of the word “extensive:” many EVs do have battery cooling systems, and gearbox lubrication systems

** there are nuances within this overall result: dealers report faster tire wear with EVs, due to their heavy battery packs, and

many note that EV service has a higher labor:parts ratio then with ICE

Page 33: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

C. Impact of Higher EV Sales on the Store Overall

Multiple OEMs are trying to alter the role of the channel - when selling EVs

Several OEMs active in the USA, who utilize dealerships as their sales channel, have proposed

alternative arrangements for EV ordering, sales, and delivery. These include subscription sales

placed directly with the OEM, online deposits for advance orders of EVs, compensating dealers

with fixed commissions instead of or in addition to vehicle margins, establishing showroom-only

locations for shoppers to investigate new models, setting up OEM-managed compounds for

holding inventory that could supply multiple dealers, etc.

The motivations behind these projects are unclear. Our interviews surfaced several views:

1. “Business as usual:” OEMs are always experimenting, not much new here

2. “Stock pump:” To capture sky-high EV/SPAC stock multiples, OEMs emulate new entrants

3. “Slippery slope:” OEMs do intend to disintermediate dealers, and these are the first steps

4. “Brave new world:” Actually EVs are different and do require new sales methods

It is hard to comment on the first three of these, as they relate to opinions and intents. But it

should be possible to address the pragmatic question embedded in the fourth possibility: are EVs

somehow different enough to justify altering the channel of distribution?

Page 34: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Introduction

Findings

Summary

Contents

Page 35: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Final Summation: Author’s Opinions

1. Inputs to the EV market

• Customers

• Vehicles

• Batteries

• Charging

• Governments

• Economics

3. Outcomes

• For Sales

• On Dealers

2. Impacts of EVs elsewhere

• Environment

• Grid

• Employment

• Geopolitics

Page 36: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

EXPLORING OPPORTUNITIES:

EVs and Infrastructure in

South Carolina

Ben Kessler

- OCTOBER 14, 2021 -

Page 37: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Our Structure

Page 38: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff |

Title Here

Subtitle

Date XX, XXXX

SCEnergyOffice

Promote

Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy Clean Transportation

Page 39: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Why is transportation a focus?

https://www.eia.gov/beta/states/states/sc/overviewhttps://www.postandcourier.com/news/colonial-pipeline-ransomware-attack-causes-gas-shortage-across-sc/article_6bcc5fe2-b277-11eb-a87c-2b42a41f22b2.html

Page 40: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

@SCEnergyOffice

Energy Office/PCF Initiatives

Lead by Example• 2016 State Energy Plan

• First SC state agency-procured EV

• Partnership with SCPRT

• Statewide EV Stakeholder Initiative

Plug in SC• Statewide marketing and education

campaign

• Incentive program for signage

Alternative Fuel Corridors• USDOT designation 2016

• Part of the Fixing America’s Surface

Transportation (FAST) Act

• Signs placed in June 2017

Energy Office Initiatives

Page 41: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

@SCEnergyOffice

Lead by Example – TransportationBenefits of Charging Stations

Background• $480K received through American

Recovery and Reinvestment Act of

2009 (ARRA)

• SCEO funded 100+ stations across

SC through Plug in Carolina

• Stations opened early 2011

Stations• Eaton Level 2

• 7kW 240V stations

Lesson Learned• Stations reaching end of life– OEM is

not providing support

• Cannot gather data

Station Deployments - ARRA

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Lead by Example – TransportationBenefits of Charging Stations

Background• Approved by the PSC in October

2020

• 3-year pilot program to develop a

charging network across DEP and

DEC

Fast Charging Program• Own and operate 60 DCFC outlets

at 30 locations

• Min of 100kW per charger

Residential EV Charging

Program• $1000 for 400 residential DEC

customers

• Gathering data off Level 2 use

Station Deployments – Duke ET Pilot

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@SCEnergyOffice

Lead by Example – TransportationBenefits of Charging Stations

Programs/Integrated Resource Plan• $500 for qualifying residential Level 2

stations

• Commercial Level 2 Incentive – Late 2021

• Commercial EV Fleet Replacement Incentive

- 2022

• Support for managed charging incentives

Stations and Vehicles• Installing Level 2 chargers to support fleet

and workplace charging, telematics

• 2 Prius PHEV conversions, 3 Bolts, 1 Tesla

Model 3, 45 electric forklifts/carts

Plug in SC• If installing in Santee Cooper territory, reach

out for Plug in SC materials

Station Deployments – Santee Cooper

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@SCEnergyOffice

Electric Vehicle Stakeholder Initiative

Objectives

• Examine the legislative and regulatory environment

surrounding EVs and EV charging station access and

adoption;

• Identify challenges and opportunities for EVs and EV

charging stations; and

• Develop recommendations surrounding EV penetration and

EV charging stations in SC.

Working Groups• EV Charging Infrastructure

• Education, Outreach and Workforce Development

• Incentives & Financing

• Public Entities

• Accessibility and Equity

Reach out to Allie Garrett to be added to contact list: [email protected]

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@SCEnergyOffice

Project Timeline

Core Team planning

Kick-off with Advisory

Committee

All stakeholder workshops (2)

Research solutions

Nov - Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 March – July 2021

August 2021 September 2021 Oct – Nov 2021 Dec 2021 - Jan 2022

Prioritize and finalize

recommendations

Final All Stakeholder Workshop

Draft Report Final Report

Page 46: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

@SCEnergyOffice

Palmetto Clean Fuels

Initiative of the Energy Office

US DOE-recognized Clean

Cities Coalition for SC since

2004

Goal to promote alternative

fuels and infrastructure. PCF

is fuel agnostic

Cumulative impact since

2009: ~51M GGEs reduced

Page 47: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Current Status of EVs in SC

7391

5602

4202

2781

2022

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2015.5 2016 2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5

South Carolina EV and PHEV Year-End Registrations

BEV PHEV Total EV registationsSource: Experian (formerly IHS Markit, formerly Polk), Argonne National Laboratory

~32%

~38%

~51%

~34%

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@SCEnergyOffice

What type of electric vehicles are there?

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)• Powered by internal combustion

engine (ICE) and small battery

• Doesn’t plug in

• Helps increase efficiency of ICE

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

(PHEV)• Powered by ICE and/or battery

• Plugs in to charge batteries

• Depletes battery before starting

ICE

Battery Electric Vehicle (EV or

BEV)• No ICE

• Plugs in to charge batteries

• Exceptionally low

maintenance/fuel costs

Page 49: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Transportation Sector

Look around you!

Alternative Fuel Infrastructure

https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest

Page 50: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

What Levels of Chargers are there?

Level 1 “Trickle Charge”• 110V AC, 1.3-1.9kW

• 2-5mi of range per hour of charging

• Good for extended parking stays

(1+days)

Level 2 • 240V AC, 3.3kw-19kW

• 10-40mi per hour of charging

• Good for fleet, overnight charging,

destination, workplace

Level 3 “DC Fast Charging” • 480V DC, 50-350kW+

• 60-200+mi per 20min of charging

• Good for traffic corridors, on-route

charging, buses and HD trucks

Page 51: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Types of standard connectors

J1772 – Level 1 and 2• SAE standard

• Accepted on all EVs

CCS – DC Fast Charge• Uses SAE standard and extends by

two pins

• Commonly accepted as standard

across OEMs

CHAdeMO – DC Fast Charge• Mainly on Asian vehicles – Nissan Leaf

• Phasing out for CCS standard in US

• Many, if not all, DCFC offer both CCS

and CHAdeMO

Page 52: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

@SCEnergyOffice

Lead by Example – TransportationBenefits of Charging Stations

Attraction/Revitalization

• Puts destinations on the

map for tourists, residents,

and motorists from

roadway

Economic Development• Co-locate stations in retail &

amenity areas

Sustainability• Consumers see this as a

positive business/place to live

Revenue Generation• Parking fees

EV Station Benefits

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@SCEnergyOffice

Transportation Sector You play a pivotal role in purchasing

decisions!• Buyers have already made assumptions

by researching online

• Must be knowledgeable about arriving

inventory

Customers will have questions• How to install a charger?

• Does the battery last?

• How do you maintain?

• Test drive

Where can you find more • EV Dealer Certification Plug in America

• EPA Fuel Economy

• USDOE Alternative Fuels Data Center

EVs and Dealerships

Electric Vehicles and Car Dealers One Pager

Page 54: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

Transportation Sector Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Tax Credit• Fueling equipment for alternative fuels through

December 31, 2021, is eligible for a tax credit of 30% of

the cost, not to exceed $30,000.

• Permitting and inspection fees are not included in

covered expenses.

• Able to use credit for multiple sites

Qualified Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) Tax Credit• Electric and plug-in hybrid cars purchased new in or

after 2010 may be eligible for a federal income tax

credit

• The minimum credit amount is $2,500-$7500, based on

each vehicle's traction battery capacity and the gross

vehicle weight rating.

• Phases out based on vehicle sales

• Cannot claim for used, leasing company may capture

credit

Incentives for Customers

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@SCEnergyOffice

Transportation Sector Current EV market well suited for

light duty vehicles• Low maintenance – fewer parts

• “Fuel” cost is generally half of gasoline

• Examples for delivery, police, meter

readers, administrative, and other uses

Look ahead• Encourage fleets to reach out to utility

• Start planning budgets and fleet

charging locations

EVs currently will soon be on

state contract• Take advantage of the EV Off-Contract

Procurement Checklist and agency

guidance!

EVs in Fleets

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@SCEnergyOffice

How can the Energy Office/PCF help you?

Technical Assistance

• Conduct fleet analyses using USDOE-verified

models and calculators

Financial Assistance

• Assist with applications for federal & state funding

opportunities

Training Opportunities

• Provide certified training to staff and mechanics

• Electrified Municipalities Roundtable

• Statewide Battery Electric Bus Training

Connecting You

• PCF Stakeholders include fuel providers, OEMs,

upfitters, state & federal agencies, nonprofits,

infrastructure deployers, utilities and Co-Ops, etc.

• Subscribe to our newsletter! PCF’s Hubcap

Page 57: Electric Vehicles in the USA: Just the Facts

@SCEnergyOffice

Contact Information

Ben Kessler

Energy Office

SC Office of Regulatory Staff

[email protected]

(803) 737-0989