electric vehicles in the usa: just the facts
TRANSCRIPT
Electric Vehicles in the USA:
Just the Facts
Excerpts from a Report to NADA
Glenn Mercer
SCADA
October 14, 2021
Introduction
Findings
Summary
Contents
Introduction
This is the abridged Presentation Version of the longer Reference Deck.
Disclaimers:• The views expressed in this report are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of NADA
• Our geographic focus is the American market, so our findings may not apply elsewhere
• Our product focus is on retailed LD (light-duty) EVs, not wholesaled fleet vehicles, and not MD or HD trucks
Purpose:To provide dealers with facts about EVs that will assist them to estimate the future rate of adoption of EVs, to assess
their likely impact on dealership operations, and to take appropriate action to be ready for that impact. Our purpose is
not to argue the merits or politics of EVs. As a compendium of facts and findings, there is not a “storyline” present.
Definitions:Throughout this report we will take “EV” to mean primarily Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), such as a Chevrolet Bolt or
a Tesla, not Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV), such as a Toyota Prius Prime, although this distinction has not
been made consistently in the industry and so may affect comparisons of different sales forecasts.
Approach:Throughout this report we will:
• Favor data and facts over assertions and arguments, and real-world in-use data over modeled data
• Avoid agenda-driven “think pieces” from NGOs both pro- and con-EV
• Try to point out where there are significant arguments on consensus on an issue
• Slide contents in red indicate my opinions, rather than facts
EVs in America: the Situation Today
The EV puzzle today is one of strong supply growth…
EV available now or later in 2021
Audi e-trons (various including Q4)
BMW i3, i4
Byton m-byte
Canoo truck?
Chevrolet Bolt, Bolt EUV
Ford Mustang Mach-e
Genesis G80
GMC Hummer EV
Honda Clarity
Hyundai Ioniq
Hyundai Kona
Jaguar I-Pace
Karma GS
Kia Niro
Lordstown Endurance
Lucid Air
Mercedes EQS
Mini
Nissan Leaf, Ariya
Polestar 2
Porsche Taycan
Rivian R1S, R1T
Tesla S3XY Cybertruck?
Volvo X/C40 Recharge?
VW ID4
Available in 2022 (incremental)
Audi A6 etron
Alfa EV
BMW Inext/ix?, 7
Bollinger B1, B2
Cadillac Lyriq
Fisker Ocean
Ford F150 Lightning (2021?)
Jeep Wrangler Magneto
Kia EV6
Land Rover EV
Lexus EV
Maserati GT, Grecale
Mazda MX-30?
Mercedes EQA, EQB, EQC, G-Class
Nissan Maxima EV
Polestar 3
Subaru Solterra
Tesla Roadster
Toyota BZ4X
VW ID Space Vizzion
Available in 2023 (incremental)
Aston Martin Lagonda
BMW iX?
Buick EV
Cadillac Celestiq?, SUV
Chevrolet Silverado EV (2024?)
Faraday Future FF91
Ford/Lincoln EV CUV
Genesis Essentia
Honda EV
Porsche Macan
Toyota/Subaru EV CUV
VW ID Buzz
Notes:
1. This list is certain to be inaccurate, as OEMs change
plans, model names, availability dates, etc.
2. Sources include EPRI, Car and Driver, US (DOE,
EVadoption.com, etc. When they disagreed, I went with
what the OEM website said
3. I have left out a few ultra-low-production supercars, and
oddities like the Kandi
4. These are BEV only, no PHEV
5. I did not enforce rigor re model variants... thus calling the
Audi etron Q4 one model, not Audi etron Q4 and Audi
etron Q4 Sportback as two models
6. Commercial vehicles (e.g. Ford Transit EV) are excluded,
but the line between personal and commercial use is blurry
(e.g., Canoo)
EVs in America: the Situation Today
…. meeting more modest demand growth.
So… is today different than a century ago?
Introduction
Findings
Summary
Contents
Index of Findings Chapters
1. Inputs to the EV market
• Customers
• Vehicles
• Batteries
• Charging
• Governments
• Economics
3. Outcomes
• For Sales
• On Dealers
2. Impacts of EVs elsewhere
• Environment
• Grid
• Employment
• Geopolitics
Customers
EV shoppers and owners are evolving from wealthy tech-focused pioneers adding
cars to their driveway, to still-well-off but more differentiated adopters who more
often use their EV as a primary vehicle.
1. Interest in and approval of EVs is growing, though consideration still lags
2. In terms of key buying factors:
• EV cost matters, but it is unclear how much it does: general appeal and
suitability for purpose tend to trump price
• Charging baffles customers, and time-to-charge is a major issue
• Range is crucial: so crucial that we can skip the rational arguments (“you don’t
need 400 miles!”) and accept that Americans want big range numbers
• Choice of vehicle (e.g., CUV) is improving and raising consumer interest
• The “greenness” of EVs is widely accepted and so may no longer be a factor
3. Converting EV considerers to buyers will require confidence, obtained both from
education (learning about EVs) and trial (experiencing EVs). Dealers can help!
Customers
EV shoppers and owners are evolving from wealthy tech-focused pioneers adding
cars to their driveway, to still-well-off but more differentiated adopters who more
often use their EV as a primary vehicle.
1. Interest in and approval of EVs is growing, though consideration still lags
2. In terms of key buying factors:
• EV cost matters, but it is unclear how much it does: general appeal and
suitability for purpose tend to trump price
• Charging baffles customers, and time-to-charge is a major issue
• Range is crucial: so crucial that we can skip the rational arguments (“you don’t
need 400 miles!”) and accept that Americans want big range numbers
• Choice of vehicle (e.g., CUV) is improving and raising consumer interest
• The “greenness” of EVs is widely accepted and so may no longer be a factor
3. Converting EV considerers to buyers will require confidence, obtained both from
education (learning about EVs) and trial (experiencing EVs). Dealers can help!
Vehicles
1. Emissions regulations drive EV adoption globally, and thus – inevitably - the US
2. This will happen despite good arguments for the steady improvement in ICE fuel
economy and emissions, especially in a PHEV format
3. A flood of new EV models is headed our way, which should drive demand
(“People buy what they see on the road or in their neighbors’ driveways.”)
4. These new models are entering new segments, further increasing appeal: if an
EV pickup truck succeeds, this may be an inflection point for demand
5. Dealers are eager to receive – and show to customers – newer EV models that
are more competitive in both performance and in body style.
EV pickups may be the market turning point
America is “a truck market that also has cars,” meaning that if EV pickups become
popular, the EV transition would dramatically accelerate.
Source: Cox Automotive
Batteries
1. Range is improving fast, to levels that may be broadly acceptable to Americans
2. Range degradation is a problem, but to date manageable. However, if impatient
drivers insist on frequent use of fast-charging, battery life can shrink
3. Battery cost has been falling rapidly, such that if materials prices do not spike,
OEMs may be able to make profits on these cars in a few years
4. However, battery materials pose issues (environmental, political, humanitarian)
5. As for safety, EV battery fires are not more likely than ICE engine fires. But
media coverage of EV fires may solidify the perception that the danger is high.
6. Solid-state battery tech is a hot topic - but may not arrive in force for years.
7. Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV) remain serious long-term rivals to EVs, but consensus
is that they will not arrive in large numbers much before 2030.
8. Dealers again can educate consumers here, e.g., as regards improved range,
improved battery life, and relatively low fire risk
Batteries
1. Range is improving fast, to levels that may be broadly acceptable to Americans
2. Range degradation is a problem, but to date manageable. However, if impatient
drivers insist on frequent use of fast-charging, battery life can shrink
3. Battery cost has been falling rapidly, such that if materials prices do not spike,
OEMs may be able to make profits on these cars in a few years
4. However, battery materials pose issues (environmental, political, humanitarian)
5. As for safety, EV battery fires are not more likely than ICE engine fires. But
media coverage of EV fires may solidify the perception that the danger is high.
6. Solid-state battery tech is a hot topic - but may not arrive in force for years.
7. Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV) remain serious long-term rivals to EVs, but consensus
is that they will not arrive in large numbers much before 2030.
8. Dealers again can educate consumers here, e.g., as regards improved range,
improved battery life, and relatively low fire risk
Charging An enormous network of chargers (beyond home units) will be required to fuel an
expanding EV fleet. That network is growing rapidly, while bottlenecks do exist.
However, from a customer perspective, charging presents additional issues which
makes charging inconvenient relative to gasoline pumping:
1. There are multiple types of charger… gas pumps are standardized
2. Charging rate depends on vehicle capacity as well as charger output… while
every car receives gasoline at the same rate
3. Gas prices vary over time but tend to a narrow range at any given time… but
electric rates can vary dramatically and in unexpected ways
4. There are numerous “front line” issues with charging, from charger time limits to
billing complexities and out-of-service units
5. Overall, the charging network will continue to expand and improve, but it
remains not as easy for customers as pumping gas.
While dealers cannot resolve the charging problem on their own, they can inform
customers as to where, both in their home areas and on the road, they can charge,
how they can charge, which apps can find them chargers while traveling, etc.
Charging An enormous network of chargers (beyond home units) will be required to fuel an
expanding EV fleet. That network is growing rapidly, while bottlenecks do exist.
However, from a customer perspective, charging presents additional issues which
makes charging inconvenient relative to gasoline pumping:
1. There are multiple types of charger… gas pumps are standardized
2. Charging rate depends on vehicle capacity as well as charger output… while
every car receives gasoline at the same rate
3. Gas prices vary over time but tend to a narrow range at any given time… but
electric rates can vary dramatically and in unexpected ways
4. There are numerous “front line” issues with charging, from charger time limits to
billing complexities and out-of-service units
5. Overall, the charging network will continue to expand and improve, but it
remains not as easy for customers as pumping gas.
While dealers cannot resolve the charging problem on their own, they can inform
customers as to where, both in their home areas and on the road, they can charge,
how they can charge, which apps can find them chargers while traveling, etc.
Government Incentives
1. Governments everywhere see (consumer) incentives (tax rebates, grants, etc.) as
crucial to bridging the gap between an ICE present and an EV future.
2. Increasingly politicians are considering “sticks” and much as “carrots”
3. Their spending on these programs is absolutely high (total dollars spent) and
has been relatively inefficient (dollar spent per EV-linked emissions reduction).
4. Incentives have proliferated in a confusing way within and across states.
5. While incentives work in that more EVs are sold as a result, their side effects are
numerous and often detrimental: driving timing of purchase rather than the
purchase itself, benefitting the wealthy disproportionately, failing to compensate
for inter-state emissions “leakage,” and coming and going unpredictably
6. Dealers, given their intimate understanding of what actually drives the
customer’s purchase decision, can assist governments to design EV incentives
that work effectively and efficiently to accelerate the EV transition.
Government Incentives
1. Governments everywhere see (consumer) incentives (tax rebates, grants, etc.) as
crucial to bridging the gap between an ICE present and an EV future.
2. Increasingly politicians are considering “sticks” and much as “carrots”
3. Their spending on these programs is absolutely high (total dollars spent) and
has been relatively inefficient (dollar spent per EV-linked emissions reduction).
4. Incentives have proliferated in a confusing way within and across states.
5. While incentives work in that more EVs are sold as a result, their side effects are
numerous and often detrimental: driving timing of purchase rather than the
purchase itself, benefitting the wealthy disproportionately, failing to compensate
for inter-state emissions “leakage,” and coming and going unpredictably
6. Dealers, given their intimate understanding of what actually drives the
customer’s purchase decision, can assist governments to design EV incentives
that work effectively and efficiently to accelerate the EV transition.
Economics
Incentives can temporarily boost the market by “buying down” expensive EVs to
make them retail-price-competitive with ICE. But in the long run EVs must become
economically competitive with ICE costs in two ways: from the customer point of
view (the Total Cost of Owning and a car (TCO)); and from the manufacturer point of
view (the cost of producing an EV versus an ICE).
1. The manufacturer perspective. As battery costs continue to drop and as
OEMs get more experience building EVs, we are moving to a point where EV
and ICE will cost similar amounts to produce. (Again, depending on the
behavior of raw material prices, battery supply and demand, etc.)
2. The customer perspective. The TCO advantage of ICE over EV is shrinking
and will continue to shrink, but focus on TCO may be misplaced: on the one
hand TCO calculations are complex and unreliable; and on the other, buyers
do not seem to pay much attention to TCO. Dealers can educate customers
as to how an EV may indeed pay off for them over time, on a TCO basis.
When will EVs be cost-competitive?
A FAMOUS (FAILED) FORECAST
"I feel pretty confident we can get to a compelling sub-$30,000
car in five years," crackled a voice on Boston's NPR station
WBUR. That was Elon Musk in a radio interview back in 2009.
Twelve years later, Tesla has yet to sustain production of an
electric vehicle deliverable for under $40,000. In fact, no
automaker has yet turned their invested billions into the electric
car's Model T moment. Even this new generation of non-Tesla
EVs aimed at the mass market—think the Volkswagen ID.4 that
starts at $39,995 and others—are hardly cheap.
The Drive June 7, 2021
Consensus is for EV/ICE cost parity in the 2020s
Source: US EPA
Environment
The environmental impact of any vehicle comes in three pieces:
1. MANUFACTURING (and recycling) the vehicle: because of the massive amount
of mining that must be done to extract the raw materials needed for EV batteries,
producing an EV generates more GHG emissions than does making an ICE.
2. However, OPERATING an EV is more energy-efficient than running an ICE, as the
EV converts more of its fuel (electricity) into useful power than an ICE does.
3. And POWERING the EV (creating the electricity it uses), is generally lower in
emissions than for the ICE. If the grid is “dirty” electrical grid, then the ICE may
have the advantage. But for the US grid as a whole, EVs are greener.
Net, therefore, the consensus is that EVs are better for the environment than ICE.
However, USA GHG emissions are so huge, and the fleet turns over so slowly, that
growing EV sales may not make a big difference to total emissions for years.
American consumers generally already consider EVs to be “green,” but dealers may
have a role in discussing with consumers the issues involved (e.g. BEV vs. PHEV).
23
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2020
history projections
U.S. electricity generation from selected fuels
AEO2021 Reference casebillion kilowatthours
natural gas
renewables
nuclear
coal
40%
21%
19%
19%
36%
42%
11%
11%0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S. renewable electricity generation, including end use
AEO2021 Reference casebillion kilowatthours
2020
history projections
solar
wind
geothermal
hydroelectric
other16%
41%2%
34%7%
46%
47%
34%
13%
2%
4%
The US power grid is getting “greener”Zero-emission sources (nuclear+renewables) are projected to grow from 40% of
generation in 2020 to over 50% by 2050, due primarily to an upsurge in solar power.
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2021; CA is #1 for renewables capacity installed, TX second
Geopolitics
Leaving aside the environmental issues involved in sourcing battery materials,
there are at least two geopolitical concerns regarding the present EV transition:
1. Unless the USA undertakes dramatic action, it will find its car market, to the
extent it shifts to EVs, more dependent on Chinese supplies
2. Beyond that, to the extent that EVs become globally dominant, the USA could
find its leadership in the automotive industry “hollowed out,” as has happened
before in the production of textiles, furniture, appliances, and more.
Both these issues have been and are being addressed by both the past and the
current administration, but the author has no view on the adequacy of those
actions. It is a remarkably unpolarized topic.
China is to batteries as OPEC was to oil
China dominates both upstream and downstream EV battery supply
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence; cathode chart from Roskill
NCM, NCA, LFP battery plant
capacity through 2023
Recap: to this point
1. Inputs to the EV market
• Customers
• Vehicles
• Batteries
• Charging
• Governments
• Economics
3. Outcomes
• For Sales
• On Dealers
2. Impacts of EVs elsewhere
• Environment
• Grid
• Employment
• Geopolitics
EV Sales. Up, But How Far?
There are so many factors that go into the EV equation, each of which itself must
be forecast, that it is inevitable that EV sales forecasts will vary widely. Is there
any consensus at all around the predicted USA EV sales rate?
At the basic level, yes: every EV sales forecast sees growing EV market share.
Beyond that, there is some consensus that EV* share in 2025 will be 5-10%.
Further, there is some consensus that EV share in 2030 will roughly double that
Here are the forecasts we’ve collected (in %, EV market share):
• 2025: 9, 6.5, 8, 5+, 7-10, 8, 7, 5, 8, 10, 12, 10, 7, 8-20 (!) – average ~9.5%
• 2030: 13, 12, 20, 17, 11.5, 8, 20, 30, 34, 20, 17, 17-40 (!) – average ~19%
• The sources for these projections include: IHS, McKinsey, CAR, EIA, Goldman
Sachs, BNEF, UBS, Alliance Bernstein, LMC, AutoPacific, Morgan Stanley, BCG,
Citigroup, Navigant/Guidehouse, PWC, DB, Jeffries, Boston U., etc.
• The Dealership of Tomorrow (2021 version) 2025 EV forecast: 7% share.
*Note again that some forecasts bundle PHEV in with BEV to forecast “PEV” (plug-in vehicles), while others forecast
only BEV. No forecaster sees PHEV as more than 15% or so of eventual total PEV sales, so this variance does not
have material impact on the overall forecast levels.
EV sales: a few recent (2021) forecasts
2025 USA BEV % of SAAR:
BofA/ML: 5%
Citi: 12%
Cox: 9%
PWC: 5-8%
SEMA: 7% (BEV only)
NB: in some cases, the
author estimated numbers
from graphics: any errors
as a result are his alone.
EV Sales: What Could Change Consensus?
Are there “wild cards” that might alter the consensus of steadily upward? A few…
- “Hindenburg Event:” a major multi-car EV battery fire (e.g., in a parking garage)
+ “ICE Age:” one or more major cities bans ICE downtown (now, not in 2035)
- “China Syndrome:” political friction throttles supply of batteries to US market
+ “Apple Cart:” Apple enters the market: >110 million Americans have iPhones
-/+ “Gas Shock:” oil prices move sharply: gas goes to $1.50 (-) or $5.00 (+)
+ “Convoy:” one or more EV pickup trucks becomes a major success
- “Green Backlash:” public turns against EVs due to raw material issues
+ “OEM Shock and Awe:” one or more incumbent OEMs (VW?) becomes very
aggressive, e.g., free home charger, free charging, 500-mile range
+ “Money Changes Everything:” Biden admin. launches massive EV incentives
and tightens MPG/GHG limits drastically
and…?
Dealers: Impact of Higher EV Sales
As EV sales grow, what is the impact on dealers? The answers vary by function.
A. Sales: mildly negative?
• Some volume loss to new EV entrants, to the extent they do not use dealers
• Some investment required in sales force training
B. Service: probably negative… eventually
• Likely decline in most service revenue, relative to ICE (this is not new, for dealers)
• Some investment required in tech training, and in special EV service equipment
• Possible increase in service retention, given the advanced technology of EVs
• Possible increase in collision repair revenue, and a likely increase in tire sales
C. Overall role: possibly negative, if not managed well
• Proliferating OEM attempts to alter the way dealers interact with customers can make
sense (to the extent customer needs are indeed evolving), but can also be counter-
productive (by reducing the dealer’s role at the very point in time when dealers’
proven ability to communicate, market, and sell the benefits of new vehicle
technologies is most required, in order to advance America’s EV transition)
B. Impact of Higher EV Sales on the Service Dept.Service: certain eventual decline (~50% vs. ICE?) in revenue
• EVs require less maintenance than equivalent ICEs, due to fewer moving parts in the engine or
motor, and the absence of extensive powertrain-cooling and powertrain-lubrication systems*
• Consensus is that this spend is perhaps typically 40% lower annually, as per reports from fleet
operators, Wall Street analysts, interviews with dealers who carry both EV and ICE (e.g.,
Nissan, Chevrolet), and ICDP in the UK (who have studied this issue in depth)**.
• There are two offsetting factors:• Service volume is driven by installed base vs. annual sales: as PWC points out, their forecast of EV
new-sales shares of ~6% in 2025 and 14% in 2030 results in a total USA fleet in 2030 that is only 4%
EV. Implication: dealers have time to react.
• There is some early evidence that with EV dealers experience higher service retention (e.g., “I don’t
make much money per Leaf, but I get every Leaf”): the independent aftermarket has not yet
penetrated far into EV work. But this is dealers’ business to lose.
• Finally, we’ve been here before: service per car (adjusted for inflation) has fallen over the years
as car quality has soared. Dealers compensated with menu pricing, longer service hours,
pickup/dropoff, working on older cars, etc. We trust they can rise to the EV challenge as well.
* note the use of the word “extensive:” many EVs do have battery cooling systems, and gearbox lubrication systems
** there are nuances within this overall result: dealers report faster tire wear with EVs, due to their heavy battery packs, and
many note that EV service has a higher labor:parts ratio then with ICE
B. Impact of Higher EV Sales on the Service Dept.Service: certain eventual decline (~50% vs. ICE?) in revenue
• EVs require less maintenance than equivalent ICEs, due to fewer moving parts in the engine or
motor, and the absence of extensive powertrain-cooling and powertrain-lubrication systems*
• Consensus is that this spend is perhaps typically 40% lower annually, as per reports from fleet
operators, Wall Street analysts, interviews with dealers who carry both EV and ICE (e.g.,
Nissan, Chevrolet), and ICDP in the UK (who have studied this issue in depth)**.
• There are two offsetting factors:• Service volume is driven by installed base vs. annual sales: as PWC points out, their forecast of EV
new-sales shares of ~6% in 2025 and 14% in 2030 results in a total USA fleet in 2030 that is only 4%
EV. Implication: dealers have time to react.
• There is some early evidence that with EV dealers experience higher service retention (e.g., “I don’t
make much money per Leaf, but I get every Leaf”): the independent aftermarket has not yet
penetrated far into EV work. But this is dealers’ business to lose.
• Finally, we’ve been here before: service per car (adjusted for inflation) has fallen over the years
as car quality has soared. Dealers compensated with menu pricing, longer service hours,
pickup/dropoff, working on older cars, etc. We trust they can rise to the EV challenge as well.
* note the use of the word “extensive:” many EVs do have battery cooling systems, and gearbox lubrication systems
** there are nuances within this overall result: dealers report faster tire wear with EVs, due to their heavy battery packs, and
many note that EV service has a higher labor:parts ratio then with ICE
C. Impact of Higher EV Sales on the Store Overall
Multiple OEMs are trying to alter the role of the channel - when selling EVs
Several OEMs active in the USA, who utilize dealerships as their sales channel, have proposed
alternative arrangements for EV ordering, sales, and delivery. These include subscription sales
placed directly with the OEM, online deposits for advance orders of EVs, compensating dealers
with fixed commissions instead of or in addition to vehicle margins, establishing showroom-only
locations for shoppers to investigate new models, setting up OEM-managed compounds for
holding inventory that could supply multiple dealers, etc.
The motivations behind these projects are unclear. Our interviews surfaced several views:
1. “Business as usual:” OEMs are always experimenting, not much new here
2. “Stock pump:” To capture sky-high EV/SPAC stock multiples, OEMs emulate new entrants
3. “Slippery slope:” OEMs do intend to disintermediate dealers, and these are the first steps
4. “Brave new world:” Actually EVs are different and do require new sales methods
It is hard to comment on the first three of these, as they relate to opinions and intents. But it
should be possible to address the pragmatic question embedded in the fourth possibility: are EVs
somehow different enough to justify altering the channel of distribution?
Introduction
Findings
Summary
Contents
Final Summation: Author’s Opinions
1. Inputs to the EV market
• Customers
• Vehicles
• Batteries
• Charging
• Governments
• Economics
3. Outcomes
• For Sales
• On Dealers
2. Impacts of EVs elsewhere
• Environment
• Grid
• Employment
• Geopolitics
EXPLORING OPPORTUNITIES:
EVs and Infrastructure in
South Carolina
Ben Kessler
- OCTOBER 14, 2021 -
Our Structure
South Carolina Office of Regulatory Staff |
Title Here
Subtitle
Date XX, XXXX
SCEnergyOffice
Promote
Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy Clean Transportation
Why is transportation a focus?
https://www.eia.gov/beta/states/states/sc/overviewhttps://www.postandcourier.com/news/colonial-pipeline-ransomware-attack-causes-gas-shortage-across-sc/article_6bcc5fe2-b277-11eb-a87c-2b42a41f22b2.html
@SCEnergyOffice
Energy Office/PCF Initiatives
Lead by Example• 2016 State Energy Plan
• First SC state agency-procured EV
• Partnership with SCPRT
• Statewide EV Stakeholder Initiative
Plug in SC• Statewide marketing and education
campaign
• Incentive program for signage
Alternative Fuel Corridors• USDOT designation 2016
• Part of the Fixing America’s Surface
Transportation (FAST) Act
• Signs placed in June 2017
Energy Office Initiatives
@SCEnergyOffice
Lead by Example – TransportationBenefits of Charging Stations
Background• $480K received through American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act of
2009 (ARRA)
• SCEO funded 100+ stations across
SC through Plug in Carolina
• Stations opened early 2011
Stations• Eaton Level 2
• 7kW 240V stations
Lesson Learned• Stations reaching end of life– OEM is
not providing support
• Cannot gather data
Station Deployments - ARRA
@SCEnergyOffice
Lead by Example – TransportationBenefits of Charging Stations
Background• Approved by the PSC in October
2020
• 3-year pilot program to develop a
charging network across DEP and
DEC
Fast Charging Program• Own and operate 60 DCFC outlets
at 30 locations
• Min of 100kW per charger
Residential EV Charging
Program• $1000 for 400 residential DEC
customers
• Gathering data off Level 2 use
Station Deployments – Duke ET Pilot
@SCEnergyOffice
Lead by Example – TransportationBenefits of Charging Stations
Programs/Integrated Resource Plan• $500 for qualifying residential Level 2
stations
• Commercial Level 2 Incentive – Late 2021
• Commercial EV Fleet Replacement Incentive
- 2022
• Support for managed charging incentives
Stations and Vehicles• Installing Level 2 chargers to support fleet
and workplace charging, telematics
• 2 Prius PHEV conversions, 3 Bolts, 1 Tesla
Model 3, 45 electric forklifts/carts
Plug in SC• If installing in Santee Cooper territory, reach
out for Plug in SC materials
Station Deployments – Santee Cooper
@SCEnergyOffice
Electric Vehicle Stakeholder Initiative
Objectives
• Examine the legislative and regulatory environment
surrounding EVs and EV charging station access and
adoption;
• Identify challenges and opportunities for EVs and EV
charging stations; and
• Develop recommendations surrounding EV penetration and
EV charging stations in SC.
Working Groups• EV Charging Infrastructure
• Education, Outreach and Workforce Development
• Incentives & Financing
• Public Entities
• Accessibility and Equity
Reach out to Allie Garrett to be added to contact list: [email protected]
@SCEnergyOffice
Project Timeline
Core Team planning
Kick-off with Advisory
Committee
All stakeholder workshops (2)
Research solutions
Nov - Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 March – July 2021
August 2021 September 2021 Oct – Nov 2021 Dec 2021 - Jan 2022
Prioritize and finalize
recommendations
Final All Stakeholder Workshop
Draft Report Final Report
@SCEnergyOffice
Palmetto Clean Fuels
Initiative of the Energy Office
US DOE-recognized Clean
Cities Coalition for SC since
2004
Goal to promote alternative
fuels and infrastructure. PCF
is fuel agnostic
Cumulative impact since
2009: ~51M GGEs reduced
Current Status of EVs in SC
7391
5602
4202
2781
2022
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2015.5 2016 2016.5 2017 2017.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5
South Carolina EV and PHEV Year-End Registrations
BEV PHEV Total EV registationsSource: Experian (formerly IHS Markit, formerly Polk), Argonne National Laboratory
~32%
~38%
~51%
~34%
@SCEnergyOffice
What type of electric vehicles are there?
Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)• Powered by internal combustion
engine (ICE) and small battery
• Doesn’t plug in
• Helps increase efficiency of ICE
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
(PHEV)• Powered by ICE and/or battery
• Plugs in to charge batteries
• Depletes battery before starting
ICE
Battery Electric Vehicle (EV or
BEV)• No ICE
• Plugs in to charge batteries
• Exceptionally low
maintenance/fuel costs
Transportation Sector
Look around you!
Alternative Fuel Infrastructure
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest
What Levels of Chargers are there?
Level 1 “Trickle Charge”• 110V AC, 1.3-1.9kW
• 2-5mi of range per hour of charging
• Good for extended parking stays
(1+days)
Level 2 • 240V AC, 3.3kw-19kW
• 10-40mi per hour of charging
• Good for fleet, overnight charging,
destination, workplace
Level 3 “DC Fast Charging” • 480V DC, 50-350kW+
• 60-200+mi per 20min of charging
• Good for traffic corridors, on-route
charging, buses and HD trucks
Types of standard connectors
J1772 – Level 1 and 2• SAE standard
• Accepted on all EVs
CCS – DC Fast Charge• Uses SAE standard and extends by
two pins
• Commonly accepted as standard
across OEMs
CHAdeMO – DC Fast Charge• Mainly on Asian vehicles – Nissan Leaf
• Phasing out for CCS standard in US
• Many, if not all, DCFC offer both CCS
and CHAdeMO
@SCEnergyOffice
Lead by Example – TransportationBenefits of Charging Stations
Attraction/Revitalization
• Puts destinations on the
map for tourists, residents,
and motorists from
roadway
Economic Development• Co-locate stations in retail &
amenity areas
Sustainability• Consumers see this as a
positive business/place to live
Revenue Generation• Parking fees
EV Station Benefits
@SCEnergyOffice
Transportation Sector You play a pivotal role in purchasing
decisions!• Buyers have already made assumptions
by researching online
• Must be knowledgeable about arriving
inventory
Customers will have questions• How to install a charger?
• Does the battery last?
• How do you maintain?
• Test drive
Where can you find more • EV Dealer Certification Plug in America
• EPA Fuel Economy
• USDOE Alternative Fuels Data Center
EVs and Dealerships
Electric Vehicles and Car Dealers One Pager
Transportation Sector Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Tax Credit• Fueling equipment for alternative fuels through
December 31, 2021, is eligible for a tax credit of 30% of
the cost, not to exceed $30,000.
• Permitting and inspection fees are not included in
covered expenses.
• Able to use credit for multiple sites
Qualified Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) Tax Credit• Electric and plug-in hybrid cars purchased new in or
after 2010 may be eligible for a federal income tax
credit
• The minimum credit amount is $2,500-$7500, based on
each vehicle's traction battery capacity and the gross
vehicle weight rating.
• Phases out based on vehicle sales
• Cannot claim for used, leasing company may capture
credit
Incentives for Customers
@SCEnergyOffice
Transportation Sector Current EV market well suited for
light duty vehicles• Low maintenance – fewer parts
• “Fuel” cost is generally half of gasoline
• Examples for delivery, police, meter
readers, administrative, and other uses
Look ahead• Encourage fleets to reach out to utility
• Start planning budgets and fleet
charging locations
EVs currently will soon be on
state contract• Take advantage of the EV Off-Contract
Procurement Checklist and agency
guidance!
EVs in Fleets
@SCEnergyOffice
How can the Energy Office/PCF help you?
Technical Assistance
• Conduct fleet analyses using USDOE-verified
models and calculators
Financial Assistance
• Assist with applications for federal & state funding
opportunities
Training Opportunities
• Provide certified training to staff and mechanics
• Electrified Municipalities Roundtable
• Statewide Battery Electric Bus Training
Connecting You
• PCF Stakeholders include fuel providers, OEMs,
upfitters, state & federal agencies, nonprofits,
infrastructure deployers, utilities and Co-Ops, etc.
• Subscribe to our newsletter! PCF’s Hubcap
@SCEnergyOffice
Contact Information
Ben Kessler
Energy Office
SC Office of Regulatory Staff
(803) 737-0989