electric vehicle residual value outlook - moody's … · electric vehicle residual value...
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EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 2
Speaker
Michael Vogan is a Lead Auto Economist at Moody’s
Analytics. Before joining Moody’s Analytics, Michael was a
research analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia.
He holds a master’s degree in applied economics and
econometrics from the University of Delaware and a
bachelor’s degree in economics from Bloomsburg University.
Michael Vogan
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 3
BEV and PHEV Variety Growing Rapidly
Source: Moody’s Analytics
Number of unique models, by model yr
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Battery EV (BEV)
Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV)
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 1 2 3
GasBattery EV (BEV)Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV)
Wholesale Used BEV Prices Fall FastAvg. price-to-MSRP ratio by fuel type, by sale age in yrs
Sources: NADA, Moody’s AnalyticsNote: All EV MSRP values are adjusted for the
$7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 5
Used EV Demand Drivers
» Automotive Industry Factors
– Tax credits/rebates on new EVs
– Changing consumer preferences
» Technological Factors
– Range anxiety on older models
– Innovation-driven obsolescence
– Battery degradation
» Macroeconomic Factors
– Low oil prices
What could lower demand for used electric vehicles?
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 6
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 12 24 36 48
Gas BEV PHEV
Depreciation Accelerates After One YearAvg. price-to-MSRP ratio by fuel type, by sale age in months
Sources: NADA, Moody’s AnalyticsNote: All EV MSRP values are adjusted for the
$7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 7
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
0K 10K 20K 30K 40K 50K 60K 70K 80K 90K
Gas BEV PHEV
BEVs Sensitive to Initial Mileage AccrualAvg. price-to-MSRP ratio, by mileage bucket, 3-yr-old vehicle sales
Sources: NADA, Moody’s AnalyticsNote: All EV MSRP values are adjusted for the
$7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 8
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2 6 10 14 18
2015 BEV
2015 Gas
2016 BEV
2016 Gas
2017 Chevy Bolt Sunk 2016 Spark Prices
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics
Avg. price-to-MSRP ratio, Chevrolet Spark, by monthly age
Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted for the
$7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 9
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 12 24 36
Next model yr range identical
Next model yr range improved
Range Improvements Cannibalize PricesEV est. avg. price-to-MSRP ratio by, sale age in months
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics AutoCycleNote: All EV MSRP values are adjusted
for the $7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 10
0 20 40 60 80 100
AudiBMW
CadillacChevrolet
FiatFord
HondaHyundai
KiaMercedes-Benz
MitsubishiNissan
PorscheSmartTesla
ToyotaVolkswagen
BEV
PHEV
Luxury Brands Dominate EV Retention
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics
Avg. price-to-MSRP ratio, by segment, by EV type, 1-yr-old sales, %
Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted for the
$7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 11
0 20 40 60 80 100
Compact Utility
Entry Subcompact
Intermediate Compact
Intermediate Mid-Size
Intermediate Subcompact
Luxury Mid-Size Utility
Luxury Sport
Premium Luxury Large
Upper Compact
BEV
PHEV
Larger EVs Retain More Value
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics
Avg. price-to-MSRP ratio, by segment, by EV type, 1-yr-old sales, %
Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted for the
$7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 12
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16
EV SUVs Needed to Meet Demand
Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics
Share of U.S new truck/SUV sales, %
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017ChevyBolt
Electric range, miles (L)
MSRP per electric mile, $ (R)
BEV Range Improving at Lower CostModel year avg. range and cost per electric mile
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted for the
$7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 14
20
30
40
50
60
70
17 18 19 20
2017 Leaf: Range 107 2017 Leaf: Range 2142017 Leaf: Range 321 2017 Versa
Range Not Enough to Save Some BEVs
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics AutoCycle
Est. avg. price-to-MSRP ratio, by range, by time
Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted
for the $7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 15
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
14 15 16 17
Unleaded Gasoline (L)
BEV-Gas (R)
PHEV-Gas (R)
Low Gas Prices Weigh on BEV Prices
Sources: OPIS, NADA, Moody’s Analytics
Gasoline Prices in $ per gallon, Residual Value Difference in pp
Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted
for the $7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
17 18 19 20
2017 Leaf: Gas Price 0 SD 2017 Leaf: Gas Price 1 SD2017 Leaf: Gas Price 2 SD 2017 Versa2017 Leaf: Gas Price 3 SD
High Gas Prices Are a Boon for BEVs
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics AutoCycle
Est. avg. price-to-MSRP ratio, by gas price shock, by time
Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted
for the $7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 17
100
150
200
250
300
350
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Gas Price Pressures Will Continue
Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics
CPI: Urban Consumer - Gasoline (Index 1982-84=100, SA)
Baseline
Forecast
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0 1 2 3
2015 BEV Model Years UnderperformedAvg. price-to-MSRP ratio by model yr, by sale age in yrs
Sources: NADA, Moody’s AnalyticsNote: All EV MSRP values are adjusted for the
$7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 19
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
0 12 24 36
2012 2013 2014
2015 2016 2017
BEV Residual Values to Strengthen
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics AutoCycle
Est. avg. price-to-MSRP ratio, by model yr, by age in months
Assumption: 5,817 miles per year
Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted
for the $7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0 1 2 3
PHEV Prices Improving With TimeAvg. price-to-MSRP ratio by model yr, by sale age in yrs
Sources: NADA, Moody’s AnalyticsNote: All EV MSRP values are adjusted for the
$7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 21
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 12 24 36
2012 2013 20142015 2016 2017
Assumption: 8,357 miles per yr
PHEV Residual Outlook Is Favorable
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics AutoCycle
Est. avg. price-to-MSRP ratio, by model yr, by age in months
Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted
for the $7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 22
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 12 24 36
2018 Bolt 2018 Corolla 2018 Leaf
Bolt to Stand Out Among Compacts…
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics AutoCycle
Est. price-to-MSRP ratio, by age in months
Assumption: 11,442 miles per yr
Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted
for the $7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 12 24 36
2018 Model S 2018 A3 2018 Bolt
… And Also to Outperform Model S
Sources: NADA, Moody’s Analytics AutoCycle
Est. price-to-MSRP ratio, by age in months
Assumption: 11,442 miles per yr
Note: All EV MSRP values are adjusted
for the $7,500 federal tax credit
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 24
ConclusionEV residual values will be a mixed bag over the next few years
» Low oil prices will continue to put downward pressure on EV sales
and prices
» PHEV vehicles will perform well while the BEV market matures
» Improvements in battery cost, quality, and range bode well for future
model years, but early model years will obsolete quickly
– However, basic subcompacts and sedans will still struggle with shifting consumer
preferences
» High quality, mass-market cars such as the Bolt and Model 3 should
do well on the used market
» Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulation will help develop EV markets
overall, but removing the federal tax credit would slow things down
EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 25
Q&AFor more economic insights in auto residual and lending risk visit
moodysanalytics.com/auto
moodysanalytics.com
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EV Residual Value Outlook, Dec. 5th, 2017 27
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