electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the city of berkeley

Developing Electric

Value Added

December 17, 2010

Justin Bean

Katie Dunn

Rudi Halbright

Obrie Hostetter

Tim McLaughlin

Developing Electric Value Added

Developing Electric Value Added Developing Electric Value Added

Outline


Outline Market Overview


Outline

Scenarios &

Strategy


Outline Recommendations


Outline Financial Options &…


Outline Analysis


Berkeley’s Climate Action Plan


• 80% Reduction by 2050 and 33% Reduction by 2020

• Potential to Save to 140,000 Metric Tons of CO2


Who is Berkeley?

• Population 107,000

• 67% have bachelors degree+

• Berkeley FIRST

• PACE


Technology Overview

EV Vs PHEV

Charging

Level 1 120 Volts 8 to 20 hours

Level 2 220 to 240 Volts 4 to 6 hours

Faster Charger (DC) 480 Volts 10 to 30 Minutes


Market Overview

• 841,000 EV & PHEVs by 2015

• Favorable Federal and State Policies

• $14.4B – ARRA

• Consumer Tax Credits

$7,500 fed tax credit

$5,000 CA tax credit

$2,000 fed tax credit for charging


Market Overview - Hybrids are a predictor of EV sales

Beating the Market (2009)

• Auto sales declined 21%

• Hybrids declined only 8%


Market Overview - EV Demand in Berkeley

• 2.8% of vehicle registrations are hybrids

• Toyota - 500 PHEVs on waiting list

• Nissan – Sold out!


Focus of Other Cities

Portland

Key Focus

All car commuters

Key Strategies

Easy access to charging

stations and permitting

Leverage municipal EV

fleet to set precedent

for adoption

New York

Key Focus

Early adopters only

Key Strategies

Commercial parking

garages

Not offering incentives,

only supporting demand

San Francisco

Key Focus

Long-term integrated

transportation plan

Key Strategies

Public parking in dense

areas

Alliances with car share

programs

Utilize existing assets


Strategy Canvas


SWOT Highlights

Strengths •Progressive Berkeley

residents

•CAP goals

•Measure R

•Small city: minimal EV

infrastructure big impact


SWOT Highlights


residents

•CAP goals

•Measure R



Weaknesses •Barriers to residential

charging

•Late for grants

•Funding


SWOT Highlights


residents

•CAP goals

•Measure R




charging

•Late for grants

•Funding

Opportunities •2nd mover to learn from

other cities

•Can be leading city for

range of options

•Funding available

•Bay area network


SWOT Highlights


residents

•CAP goals

•Measure R




charging

•Late for grants

•Funding

Threats •Other alternative fuel

vehicles might prevail

•CoB disconnected from

Bay Area corridor

•Charging technology not

completely standardized

Opportunities •2nd mover to learn from

other cities

•Can be leading city for

range of options

•Funding available

•Bay area network


Future Scenarios


Recommendations

Facilitate EV usage for early adopters

• Charging strategies for EV-driver profiles

• Fast-track permitting

• Carshare and commercial parking lot charging

• Secure grant monies and incentives ASAP

Within 3 months


• Monitor station usage for

future siting

• Install opportunity

charging stations in

shopping districts and

high-traffic areas

• Develop transportation

integration strategies

• Encourage use of the

entire transportation

system

Within 3 to 6 months

Recommendations


Evaluate & Educate

Within 18 months and on-going

Move 2nd • Move 2nd: reduce risks and

costly mistakes

• Monitor other cities’

solutions

• Disseminate information

online and through

community

• Showcase innovative pilot

projects, including

educational components

for the community

Recommendations


Not recommended at this time

Challenges:

• Uncertain commitment

to charging technology

• Permitting issues

• No clear solutions in other

cities

• Large, complicated

investment

• Lack of data

Residential Curbside Charging


Short-term recommendations • Push EV parking & charging policies

• Provide information about other

charging options

• Encourage communities to install

charging stations on private property

• Encourage permittable owner-initiated

solutions

• Facilitate relationships between private

owners of charging stations and EV

owners

Residential Curbside Charging


Our Task

Build low-risk model that is

financially and environmentally

sustainable.

Four Models A. Grid Powered

B. ClimateSmart C. PV Purchase

D. PV Lease

Constraints • Lack of data

• Limited budget

Financial Analysis: Charging Station Network


Finding WACC


WACC = [ D/V * (1-T) * Rd ] + [ E/V * Re ]


WACC = [ D/V * (1-T) * Rd ]

Finding WACC


WACC = [ D/V * Rd ]

Finding WACC


WACC = Rd

Finding WACC


WACC = Rd = YTM

Finding WACC


WACC = Rd = YTMMunicipal Bonds

•10 yr

•AA

•Callable

•Revenue

Finding WACC


3 Steps: 1. Input assumptions 2. Compare output

NPV IRR Payback Capital Outlay

3. Make conclusion

The Tool


3 4 Steps: 1. Input assumptions 2. Compare output

NPV IRR Payback Capital Outlay

3. Make conclusion 4. Monitor, reassess

assumptions

X

The Tool


NPV (thousands)

IRR Capital

Investment (thousands)

Payback

Period (years)

A: Grid Energy $490 103% $49 1.2

B: ClimateSmart $486 102% $49 1.1

C: PV Purchase $190 5% $1,120 10.0

D: PV Lease $593 79% $80 1.4

Our Calculations


A Visual Comparison


A Visual Comparison: Flipped


Variables

• daily demand

• charging price

Sensitivity Analysis: IRR


Our Task Build low risk model that is financially and environmentally sustainable.

Recommended Scenario

A. Baseline

B. ClimateSmart

C. PV Purchase D. PV Lease*

*Invest in charging stations, monitor real demand, then move forward.

Financial Analysis Summary


In Sum

Start now

•Grant money for stations

•Appease early adopters

Emergent Strategy

•Monitor other cities

•Monitor local demand

Systems Approach

EVs are not THE answer

but a part of it

electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the city of berkeley

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