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Electric powered two-wheelers(e-bikes): a welcome game-changer?

Chris Cherry, Associate Professor, University of Tennessee, KnoxvillePresented at Transforming Transportation 2015

Electric powered two-wheelers (e-bikes): a welcome game-changer?

Chris CherryAssociate Professor – Civil and Environmental Engineering

Transportation Engineering and Science ProgramUniversity of Tennessee, Knoxville

Note: most work presented here sponsored by NSF CAREER Award CBET –1055282 and supported by

current and former students Shuguang Ji, Andrew Campbell, Luke Jones, Ziwen Ling, and Hongtai Yang

China Market Simply put: e-bikes are fastest and largest

growth of alt-fuel in history of motorization

China Market Simply put again: e-bikes are the most energy

(and CO2) efficient motorized mode that exists

10x

4x

2x

Benefits compared to what? China: e-bike tend to displace transit…and cars

Previous e‐bike studies and potential mode shift.

Benefits compared to what? Kunming: bicycles dimming, 1 in 4 e-bikes displace car-based trip

E-bike Rider Previous Mode

E-bike Rider Current Best Alternative

E-bike riders as future car owners Kunming: ~40% of e-bike riders have car in household, now more

than bicycles and relatively large fraction plan to purchase

In Kunming: Household vehicle ownership and purchase plans.

E-bike riders as future car owners Is Kunming representative? We conducted a national telephone survey and found similar

results: HH car ownership (19-40%), purchase plans (8-30%). Hierarchical logit for car purchase: HH variables matter most,

some city/regional-level data.

So what’s not to love? E-bikes have an image problem

E-bikes unsafe or vulnerable?

E-bikes unsafe or vulnerable? Recent studies on e-bikes find:

– e-bike riders behave poorly – e-bike fatalities up a little less than e-bike growth

What about the batteries?

Battery production loss rates hover around 20-30% of the battery weight…

Multiplied by tens of millions of batteries a year

What about the batteries?

Bikesharing as externality control

Bikesharing as externality control Bikeshare/Scooter share

– Beijing stated preference mode switch model of e-bike sharing vs. bicycle sharing

– E-bike: bad air days, hot days, longer trips, compete with transit

– E-bikes pull from “sheltered” modes– Young- and middle-aged male respondents more

likely to use e-bikes and bikeshare in general

Key findings from UTK study

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Walk PersonalBike

Bus Car No Trip

Per

cen

t T

rip

s

Mode Displaced by UTK E-bike Sharing System

E-Bike

Bike

E-bike trip lengths longer More utility errand-type

trips More comfortable People used regular

bicycles more than we expected (both free). 30% of bicycle choosers disliked e-bike (43% of women)

1. Langford, B. C., Cherry, C., Yoon, T., Worley, S. & Smith, D. North America's First E-Bikeshare. Transportation Research Record 2387, 120–128 (2014).2. Ji, S., Cherry, C. R., Han, L. D. & Jordan, D. A. Electric bike sharing: simulation of user demand and system availability. Journal of Cleaner Production 1–8 (2013).

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

Low GasPrices

High GasPrices

Ahmedabad Market Potential Controlling for Price and Technology

Cherry, C. & Jones, L. Electric Two-Wheelers in India and Viet Nam: Market Analysis and Environmental Impacts. Asian Development Bank 1–54 (2010).

Penetrating Motorcycle Markets

Penetrating Motorcycle Markets

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Low GasPrices &No TaxIncentive

High GasPrices &No TaxIncentive

Low GasPrices &10% TaxIncentive

High GasPrices &10% TaxIncentive

Hanoi Market Potential Controlling for Price, Technology, and Regulation

Jones, L. R., Cherry, C. R., Vu, T. A. & Nguyen, Q. N. The effect of incentives and technology on the adoption of electric motorcycles: A stated choice experiment in Vietnam. Transportation Research Part A 57, 1–11 (2013).

In China, without a doubt

In USA, about 200k sold last year

In Europe, about two million sold

At this year’s Interbike, Gary Fisher called e-bikes the “next big thing” for the bicycle industry

Are e-bikes a game changer?

Conclude

E-bike riders are vulnerable but the industry can be its own worst enemy (weight and speed)

E-bikes should perform like bicycles in places where bicycles can compete

E-scooters need push/pull to compete in established motorcycle markets

Bikesharing has big potential to support sustainable e-bike deployment

ThanksChristopher CherryAssociate ProfessorCivil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Tennessee-Knoxville321 JD Tickle BuildingKnoxville, TN 37996-2313phone: 865-974-7710mobile: 865-684-8106email: cherry@utk.eduhttp://web.utk.edu/~cherryhttp://www.cycleushare.comhttp://tesp.engr.utk.edu/lever.php