ElectionsElections

Warm UpWarm Up

Brainstorm – How do you think Brainstorm – How do you think presidential and congressional races presidential and congressional races differ?differ?

A. Presidential races are more competitive than congressional races (Congress--no term limits and tough to run against an incumbent)

B. Fewer people vote in non-Presidential elections = Congressional races must be appealing to the more motivated, partisan voter

C. Members can do things for constituents and get credit that Pres. can’t do

D. Congressional candidate can deny responsibility for mess in Washington

E. Power of presidential coattails has declined

How do Presidential and Congressional races differ?

The General Election Campaign: each Presidential hopeful must

•Target the campaign

•Take advantage of political assets – incumbency

•Develop an image the voter responds to

•Attract the support of divergent groups

•Use issues and events for their own advantage

•Take advantage of the media as a primary means of communicating with the public

•Use the campaign organization and workers to get the vote out

VoteVote Will your vote make a difference?Will your vote make a difference? Voting is costlyVoting is costly So why vote?So why vote?

2000 election 2000 election http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0876793.htmlhttp://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0876793.html

Downs – Rational Choice TheoryDowns – Rational Choice Theory rational people vote if they believe that the policies of one rational people vote if they believe that the policies of one

party will bring more benefits than the policies of the party will bring more benefits than the policies of the other party other party

People who see policy differences between the parties are People who see policy differences between the parties are more likely to vote, but if you see no difference, the more likely to vote, but if you see no difference, the rational choice is not to vote. rational choice is not to vote.

High sense of political efficacyHigh sense of political efficacy Civic dutyCivic duty

Who Votes?Who Votes?

1) Education1) Education 2) Age2) Age 3) Race3) Race 4) Gender4) Gender 5) Married vs. Unmarried5) Married vs. Unmarried 6) Government employment6) Government employment OtherOther

people who have lived at the same address for a people who have lived at the same address for a long time are more likely to votelong time are more likely to vote

union members and families are more likely to union members and families are more likely to vote. vote.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.htmlresults/president/exit-polls.html

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-results/president/national-exit-polls.htmlpolls.html

How Americans VoteHow Americans Vote Mandate theory of elections - Journalists Mandate theory of elections - Journalists

and politicians like to believe that and politicians like to believe that Americans vote because they agree more Americans vote because they agree more with the policy views of Candidate A than with the policy views of Candidate A than with those of Candidate B. with those of Candidate B.

Political scientists tend to focus on three Political scientists tend to focus on three other explanations: other explanations: party identificationparty identification candidate evaluationcandidate evaluation

3 important dimensions – integrity, reliability, and 3 important dimensions – integrity, reliability, and competencecompetence

Ex: 2004 John Kerry was labeled by Bush as a “flip-Ex: 2004 John Kerry was labeled by Bush as a “flip-flopper” – image of reliability sufferedflopper” – image of reliability suffered

policy votingpolicy voting People base choices in election on their issue People base choices in election on their issue

preferencespreferences

What decides elections?What decides elections?

A.A. Party identification most commonly Party identification most commonly used factorused factor

B.B. IssuesIssues1.1. Retrospective voting: based on Retrospective voting: based on

how things are going and have how things are going and have been going; usually helps been going; usually helps incumbent unless economy is badincumbent unless economy is bad

2.2. Prospective voting: based on how Prospective voting: based on how things will go—used by few votersthings will go—used by few voters

C. Campaigns make a differenceC. Campaigns make a difference1.1. Reawaken partisan loyaltiesReawaken partisan loyalties2.2. Give voters chance to watch Give voters chance to watch

how candidates handle how candidates handle pressure/apply pressurepressure/apply pressure

3.3. Judge the character and core Judge the character and core values of candidatesvalues of candidates

D. Winning coalitionsD. Winning coalitions1. Holding on to base and attracting 1. Holding on to base and attracting

swing votersswing voters

Electoral CollegeElectoral College http://www.commoncraft.com/electionhttp://www.commoncraft.com/election Member of college, not people, who cast Member of college, not people, who cast

determining votes determining votes How it worksHow it works 1. Each state has a number of electoral votes 1. Each state has a number of electoral votes

equal to the number of representatives and equal to the number of representatives and senators.senators. A. Electors are chosen by political parties.A. Electors are chosen by political parties. B. There is a total of 538 electors, each with one vote.B. There is a total of 538 electors, each with one vote.

2. All states have winner take all (except Maine 2. All states have winner take all (except Maine and Nebraska)and Nebraska)

3. Electors vote in the December after a 3. Electors vote in the December after a November election in their states capital.November election in their states capital.

4. If no candidate wins electoral majority – 4. If no candidate wins electoral majority – election is thrown to Houseelection is thrown to House

The House of Representatives

The Senate

Electoral CollegeElectoral College

Pro’s of the Electoral CollegePro’s of the Electoral College Con’s of Electoral CollegeCon’s of Electoral College

http://www.latimes.com/media/http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2008-11/43377419.pdfacrobat/2008-11/43377419.pdf

Other plansOther plans Proportional, Direct, and CongressionalProportional, Direct, and Congressional

Arguments for/againstArguments for/against ProportionalProportional

States electoral votes split according to their popular voteStates electoral votes split according to their popular vote

DirectDirect State by stateState by state All votes determine winnerAll votes determine winner Provide for runoffProvide for runoff

CongressionalCongressional Electors counted by congressional districtElectors counted by congressional district Divides electoral votes by district – 1 to each district, and use Divides electoral votes by district – 1 to each district, and use

remaining 2 as bonus for statewide popular vote winnerremaining 2 as bonus for statewide popular vote winner

Warm UpWarm Up Decide if each statement below about the Decide if each statement below about the

electoral college is true or false.electoral college is true or false. 1. A candidate can win the popular vote but lose 1. A candidate can win the popular vote but lose

the presidential election.the presidential election. 2. California has the same number of electoral 2. California has the same number of electoral

votes as Rhode Island.votes as Rhode Island. 3. If a candidate wins fifty-three percent of the 3. If a candidate wins fifty-three percent of the

vote in New York, he or she wins all of that state’s vote in New York, he or she wins all of that state’s electoral votes.electoral votes.

4. A candidate becomes president by winning a 4. A candidate becomes president by winning a majority of electoral votes.majority of electoral votes.

5. The number of electors a state has is based on 5. The number of electors a state has is based on the state’s congressional representation.the state’s congressional representation.