The Show Must Go On: Elections, The Show Must Go On: Elections, United Russia and the Putin RegimeUnited Russia and the Putin Regime

Dr Sarah Whitmore, Oxford Brookes University, UK Dr Sarah Whitmore, Oxford Brookes University, UK

Elections Do Matter in Russia...Elections Do Matter in Russia...

As an indicator of As an indicator of incumbent strength and incumbent strength and the integrity of the elite the integrity of the elite coalitioncoalition

To confer democratic To confer democratic legitimacylegitimacy

United Russia’s Role in Putin’s United Russia’s Role in Putin’s RegimeRegime

Russia’s most successful ‘party of Russia’s most successful ‘party of power’power’

Since 2003, the party was Since 2003, the party was consolidated to perform important consolidated to perform important functions in Russia’s personalist functions in Russia’s personalist authoritarian regime:authoritarian regime:

Managing elites via the party’s Managing elites via the party’s domination of legislaturesdomination of legislatures

Managing the masses by Managing the masses by promoting a discourse around the promoting a discourse around the ‘national leader’ (2007-11) and by ‘national leader’ (2007-11) and by assisting in the managing of assisting in the managing of electionselections

BUT remained a personalised, BUT remained a personalised, ‘virtual’ party‘virtual’ party

Duma Elections December 4Duma Elections December 4thth 2011 2011

• *in the party list portion of the vote*in the party list portion of the vote• Duma elections as a ‘presidential Duma elections as a ‘presidential

primary’ in Russiaprimary’ in Russia

United Russia’s Election Results

2003 2007 2011

% vote 37.56* 64.3 49.32

No.(%) Duma seats

315(70%) 385(85.5%) 238(52.3%)

Pillars of United Russia’s Electoral Success: Pillars of United Russia’s Electoral Success: 1. The Popularity & Personal Power of Vladimir 1. The Popularity & Personal Power of Vladimir

PutinPutin Putin as ‘locomotive’ in Putin as ‘locomotive’ in

20072007 Putin’s falling ratings Putin’s falling ratings

2011 2011 (e.g. *approval ratings, (e.g. *approval ratings, Levada Centre)Levada Centre)

Active distancingActive distancing All-Russian Popular Front All-Russian Popular Front

(ONF) as rebranding and (ONF) as rebranding and revitalisingrevitalising

Medvedev ‘poor fit’Medvedev ‘poor fit’ Campaign disarray after Campaign disarray after

September 23September 23rdrd

* 2010 Jan-Jul 2011

Aug-Nov 2011

VVP 78-80%

69-72%

67-68%

- 10-15%

DAM 72-77%

66-69%

62-63%

- 10-12%

Pillars of United Russia’s Electoral Success: Pillars of United Russia’s Electoral Success: 2. Governor-locomotives2. Governor-locomotives

2003 – 28 ‘governors-2003 – 28 ‘governors-locomotives’locomotives’

2007 – 65 ‘governor-2007 – 65 ‘governor-locomotives’locomotives’

But 2004 – end of But 2004 – end of governors’ direct election & governors’ direct election & 2009-11 widespread 2009-11 widespread replacementreplacement

2011 – national level 2011 – national level figures in ‘difficult’ regions figures in ‘difficult’ regions (e.g. Deputy PM Sechin in (e.g. Deputy PM Sechin in Stavropol’, kosmonaut Stavropol’, kosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova in Valentina Tereshkova in Yaroslavl’)Yaroslavl’)

Pillars of United Russia’s Electoral Success: Pillars of United Russia’s Electoral Success: 3. Administrative Resources3. Administrative Resources

Party as beneficiary of Party as beneficiary of connections and resources of connections and resources of state officials who were party state officials who were party members or needed to members or needed to demonstrate loyalty to the demonstrate loyalty to the Kremlin to ensure budget Kremlin to ensure budget receiptsreceipts

National level electoral National level electoral populismpopulism

Regional electoral clientelismRegional electoral clientelism Ethnic republicsEthnic republics 2011 – more difficult in 2011 – more difficult in

Russian regions and esp. Russian regions and esp. urban areasurban areas

United Russia lost United Russia lost control over the control over the narrative narrative

Stability = stagnationStability = stagnation ‘‘The Party of Swindlers The Party of Swindlers

and Thieves’ reached and Thieves’ reached 46% voters (Levada 46% voters (Levada Centre)Centre)

Navalny’s ‘vote for any Navalny’s ‘vote for any party except United party except United Russia’ campaignRussia’ campaign

2011 Elections Results 2011 Elections Results by Regionby Region

http://en.rian.ru/infographics/20111208/169491066.html

2011 Elections Results by 2011 Elections Results by RegionRegion

Significance of 2011 Elections?Significance of 2011 Elections?

ConclusionsConclusions Elections do matterElections do matter United Russia – a United Russia – a

personalised partypersonalised party United Russia’s electoral United Russia’s electoral

success founded on its success founded on its connection with connection with personalised leaders at personalised leaders at national and regional level, national and regional level, both of which were both of which were weakened in 2011weakened in 2011

Poorly managed, reactive Poorly managed, reactive campaigncampaign

Hegemonic only in Hegemonic only in provincial and non-Russian provincial and non-Russian regionsregions

Regime lost its ‘aura of Regime lost its ‘aura of invincibility’invincibility’

Thanks for listening!Thanks for listening!