election review - people · 2016 election popular votes electoral votes clinton 60,839,922 232...
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Election ReviewPeter Licari
Robert Mermer
Stephen Phillips
Marah Schlingensiepen
2016 Election
Popular Votes Electoral Votes
Clinton 60,839,922 232
Trump 60,265,858 306
Source: Woolley and Peters, The American Presidency Project
“For the Love of Money”
Were the Polls Wrong?• National vs. state polls
• Exit polls
• Methodology
Likely voter models
(electorate)
“Bradley effect”
(social desirability
bias)
Nonresponse bias
Large number of
late undecideds
Trump Wave or Clinton Collapse?
“It’s the economy, stupid”
Clinton Trump Other
Clinton
46%96% 1% 3%
Trump
49%3% 94% 3%
Who would better handle the economy?
Clinton Trump Other
Excellent
3%83% 16% 1%
Good
33%76% 19% 5%
Not Good
41%39% 55% 6%
Poor
21%15% 79% 6%
Condition of the national economy?
Clinton Trump Other
Right
Direction
33%
90% 8% 2%
Wrong
Direction
62%
25% 69% 6%
Direction of the country?
Source: National Election Pool
Demographics
56
65
65
88
37
54
41
7
6
6
4
5
4
6
37
29
29
8
58
42
53
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Other
Asian
Hispanic/Latino
Black
White
Female
Male
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
+11
+1
+7
From
2012
+8
+5
+1
+1
Source: National Election Pool
Age
45
44
50
55
2
3
8
8
53
53
42
37
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
65 and over
45-64
30-44
18-29
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
+1
+5
+4
From
2012
+5
Source: National Election Pool
Income
46
48
47
46
51
53
6
3
5
4
7
6
48
49
48
50
42
41
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
$250,000 or more
$200,000 - $249,999
$100,000 - $199,999
$50,000 - $99,999
$30,000 - $49,999
Under $30,000
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
+16
+6
+2
+9
From
2012
Source: National Election Pool
Education
58
49
43
45
5
6
5
4
37
45
52
51
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Postgraduate study
College graduate
Some college/associate degree
High school or less
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
+10
+8
+8
From
2012
Source: National Election Pool
When did they decide to vote?
52
46
37
38
44
3
4
12
12
10
45
50
51
50
46
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Before that
In September
In October
In the last week
In the last few days
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Source: National Election Pool
The Trump Administration• What happens next?
• Where do we go from here?
• Does Trump moderate?
• Will the formal and informal checks and balances work?
USA Today