election 2010 the senate watchlist the 2010 senate ...election 2010 the senate watchlist why to...

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ELECTION 2010

The Senate WatchlistWHY TO WATCH

Chris Dodd, a five-term Democrat, is arguably the party’s most vulnerable Senate incumbent — just look at the lengthy list of Republicans who are champing at the bit to take him on.

Dodd has experienced marked improvement in his poll ratings in recent months, a development no doubt assisted by the Senate Ethics Committee’s August dismissal of complaints alleging that Dodd and Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) had received special mortgage deals from Countrywide Financial.

Yet the committee also noted that the two should have “exercised more vigilance" to avoid the appearance that they received preferential treatment, so the issue isn’t entirely wiped away.

Leading the crowded GOP field is former three-term Rep. Rob Simmons, who was defeated for reelection in 2006. Simmons has led Dodd in head-to-head polling matchups for months; Quinnipiac had him at a 5-percentage-point advantage in mid-September.

ConneCtiCut

THe SenATOr

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.)Age: 65Home:east HaddamFirst elected:1980term: 5th

2004 GenerAl eleCTiOn

66%

32%

Chris Dodd (D)

Jack Orchulli (R)

FAST FACTSince winning the Senate seat in 1980, Dodd has never been reelected with less than 59 percent of the vote.

VOTer reGiSTrATiOn

37%

20%

Democrat

Republican

43%Other

WHY TO WATCH

The only thing stopping Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid from being rated as the most vulnerable Democratic senator is the quality of his opposition.

Republicans struggled for months to come up with a top-tier challenger to Reid, despite his anemic ratings in the polls. Now the GOP has at least three prospective challengers — former state Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden, state Sen. Mark Amodei and businessman Danny Tarkanian — but none of them has ever run a race quite like this or against a smash-mouth opponent quite like Reid.

If the GOP nominee turns out to be equal to the task, the general election may end up resembling the epic 2004 South Dakota battle between then-Majority Leader Tom Daschle and Republican John Thune, fueled by national money and contingent on whether the challenger can convince voters that Reid’s power hasn’t translated into results for Nevada — which is suffering from high unemployment and foreclosure rates.

nevADA

THe SenATOr

Sen. Harry reid (D-nev.)Age: 69Home: SearchlightFirst elected: 1986term: 4th

WHY TO WATCH

In a state where John McCain crushed Barack Obama by 20 points in 2008 and where polls show voters are deeply skeptical of Obama’s health care plan, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln has little room for error in her bid for a third term.

According to a late September Rasmussen poll, she trails all four of her Republican opponents. And the poll shows her trailing state Sen. Gilbert Baker by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent. Baker has emerged as an early front-runner for the Republican nomination.

Lincoln, however, is well-prepared to stave off the opposition.

She raised nearly $4.6 million for her campaign through the end of June and had more than $3 million in her war chest at the time. Perhaps more important, the recent chairmanship shuffle left her at the head of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee — a key committee for ag-dependent Arkansas.

ARkAnSAS

THe SenATOr

Sen. Blanche lincoln (D-Ark.)Age: 49Home: Little RockFirst elected: 1998term: 2nd

WHY TO WATCH

Democrat Michael Bennet, appointed to the Senate seat left vacant when Ken Salazar became interior secretary, has two tough races ahead of him in 2010.

The first is the August primary, where he’ll face former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, a talented young pol who was bypassed for the appointment.

Much of the state Democratic establishment has lined up behind Bennet — as has the White House, which sought to dissuade Romanoff from running — but in short order Romanoff has already picked up a few Democratic endorsements.

It doesn’t get any easier after that. A crowded Republican field is eager to take on political newcomer Bennet, and it includes former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton — who led Bennet by 9 points in a recent polling matchup.

CoLoRADo

THe SenATOr

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.)Age: 44Home: DenverFirst elected: Appointed in January 2009term: 1st

DODD ApprOVAl rATinG

OBAMA ApprOVAl rATinG

ApproveDisapproveDon't Know



61%

35%

Harry Reid (D)

Richard Ziser (R)

FAST FACTReid won his second term in 1998 by just 459 votes over Republican John Ensign, who ran for Nevada’s other Senate seat in 2000 and won.

VOTer reGiSTrATiOn

43%

36%

Democrat

Republican

21%Other

reiD FAVOrABiliTY rATinG


FavorableUnfavorableNot Sure



56%

44%

Blanche Lincoln (D)

Jim Holt (R)

FAST FACTLincoln, who won her seat at the age of 38, is the youngest woman ever elected to the Senate.

linCOln ApprOVAl rATinG





51%

47%

Ken Salazar (D)

Pete Coors (R)

FAST FACTBennet has never run for elected office.

VOTer reGiSTrATiOn

33%

33%

Democrat

Republican

34%Other

BenneT ApprOVAl rATinG




Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, Sept. 10-14; 921

registered votersSource: Rasmussen Reports,

Sept. 14; 500 likely voters (IVR)Source: Rasmussen Reports,

Sept. 28; 500 likely voters (IVR) Source: Rasmussen Reports,

Sept. 15; 500 likely voters (IVR)

Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Aug. 21-24; 784 voters (IVR)

Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Aug. 14-16; 969 voters (IVR)

43%48%

8%

57%

36%

6%

46%53%

1%

45%54%

1%

VOTer reGiSTrATiOnThere is no party registration in Arkansas.

37%

62%

1%

36%44%

20%

31%38%

31%

48% 51%

1%

2008 preSiDenTiAl reSulTS

38McCain 61

Obama

1 Other


43McCain 55

Obama

2 Other

Source: Almanac of American Politics 2010;

state election division


59McCain

39Obama

2 Other


45McCain 54

Obama

1 Other







8

ELECTION 2010

The 2010 Senate landscape is almost evenly split down the middle: Republicans will be defending 18 seats, while Democrats will be defending 19 seats, including the January special election in Massachusetts.

WHY TO WATCH

Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter faces what may be the toughest election of his Senate career, which is saying something given the long arc of his tenure in office.

Before he can claim a sixth term, Specter must defeat tenacious and cash-flush Rep. Joe Sestak in the May primary, then knock off Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey.

The Harrisburg and Washington Democratic establishments are lined up

behind Specter, but that’s not Sestak’s audience — he’s running to Specter’s left, in the hopes of winning over the party rank and file.

Toomey, once thought to be too conservative to be a viable statewide candidate in Pennsylvania, has tempered his style and is competitive with Specter in head-to-head matchups.

PennSyLvAniA

THe SenATOr

WHY TO WATCH

Just when it looked like GOP Sen. David Vitter might weather the scandal surrounding the revelation that he was a client of a Washington prostitution ring, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon announced he would challenge Vitter in 2010, ensuring that the first-term conservative would get top-tier

opposition. Democrats have

already signaled that they consider the prostitution scandal fair game, while Vitter has indicated that President Barack Obama — and his health care plan — will play a central role in the contest.

Vitter has relatively respectable approval ratings in a state that Obama lost by a wide margin, so he won’t be easy to dislodge.

LouiSiAnA

THe SenATOr

WHY TO WATCH

Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer won a second term in 1998 by 10 percentage points and a third in 2004 by 20 points.

Still, Republicans remain convinced that her polarizing style and liberal voting record make her vulnerable in 2010.

The GOP has recruited a heavyweight challenger in former Hewlett-Packard

CEO Carly Fiorina, but Fiorina has stumbled out of the gate, and it’s not clear how much of her own money she’ll put into the race.

While a July Rasmussen Reports poll gave Boxer a 45 percent to 41 percent lead — down from a 9-point lead in March — subsequent polls have not shown the race that tight, and few see this as a top GOP pickup opportunity.

CALiFoRniA

THe SenATOr

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.)Age: 68Home: Rancho MirageFirst elected: 1992term: 3rd

WHY TO WATCH

There’s no scandal or silver-bullet issue. He’s reasonably well-funded. And unlike former GOP colleague Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who lost by a convincing margin in 2008, Sen. Richard Burr has been attentive to the state.

Yet Burr’s approval ratings are lagging, and it’s got Democrats convinced they can deny him a second term in 2010.

While the field isn’t set yet, Democrats already have one well-known challenger planning to run: Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, the first woman elected to statewide office in North Carolina.

According to a recent poll, Marshall trails Burr by double digits. There’s still a long way to go, of course, but few think the political conditions in 2010 will look anything like 2008, when Barack Obama narrowly carried the state, Kay Hagan knocked off Dole and Democrat Bev Perdue won the open governor’s race.

noRtH CARoLinA

THe SenATOr

Sen. richard Burr (R-n.C.)Age: 53Home: Winston-SalemFirst elected: 2004term: 1st


53%

42%

Arlen Specter (R)

Joe Hoeffel (D)

FAST FACTSpecter is the longest-serving senator in Pennsylvania history.

VOTer reGiSTrATiOn

51%

37%

Democrat

Republican

12%Other

SpeCTer ApprOVAl rATinG




FAST FACTNo Louisiana Senate incumbent has been defeated since 1932.

VOTer reGiSTrATiOn

53%25%

Democrat

Republican

22%Other

ViTTer ApprOVAl rATinG



ApproveDisapproveDon't Know/ Won't Say


58%

38%

Barbara Boxer (D)

Bill Jones (R)

FAST FACTIn her 2004 reelection victory, Boxer won nearly 7 million votes — the highest total for any Senate candidate in history.

VOTer reGiSTrATiOn

44%

31%

Democrat

Republican

24%Other

BOxer ApprOVAl rATinG





52%

47%

Richard Burr (R)

Erskine Bowles (D)

FAST FACTSince Sen. Sam Ervin retired in 1974, none of the six senators who have held this seat have won a second term.

VOTer reGiSTrATiOn

46%

32%

Democrat

Republican

22%Other

Burr ApprOVAl rATinG




Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, Sept. 22-28; 1,100 voters

Source: Southern Media & Opinion Research, April 13-16;

600 likely voters

Source: Public Policy Institute of California, Aug. 26-Sept.2;

1,689 registered votersSource: Rasmussen Reports,

Sept. 15; 500 likely voters (IVR)

Source: Public Policy Polling (D), Sept. 2-8; 600 voters (IVR)

2004 eleCTiOn

51%

29%

David Vitter (R)

Chris John (D)15%

John Kennedy (D)44% 48%

9%

49%42%

9%

44%36%

20%

53%

39%

8%

51%

36%

13%

60%

35%

5%

38%32% 29%

47% 52%

2%

Sen. David Vitter (R-La.)Age: 48Home: MetairieFirst elected: 2004term: 1st

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.)Age: 79Home: PhiladelphiaFirst elected: 1980term: 5th

Source: Public Policy Polling (D), July 17-19; 727 voters (IVR)

Sestak

Melancon

Fiorina


44McCain 54

Obama

2 Other


59McCain

40Obama

1 Other


37McCain 61

Obama

2 Other


49McCain 50

Obama

1 Other









9

By Charles Mahtesian

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politico

ELECTION 2010: OPEN SEATS

illinOiSThe race for the seat Barack Obama

resigned is a toss-up, a status that can be traced back to the notoriously botched effort to appoint his successor.

On the Democratic side, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is the front-runner, but he’s got two credible, though little-known, foes in the February primary — the earliest in the nation.

The Republican establishment has rallied behind moderate Rep. Mark Kirk, a fifth-term congressman from the Chicago suburbs. While GOP statewide candidates have lost by landslide margins in recent years, Kirk is competitive in the polls, and this rates as one of the GOP’s best chances of picking off a Democratic-held seat in 2010.

Holding control of the Illinois Senate seat is one of the administration’s top political priorities — it would be a major embarrassment if Republicans picked up Obama’s old seat — but it won’t be easy, with impeached Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s trial slated for next year.

2008 PReSiDentiAL ReSuLtS Obama McCain Other obAMA APPRovAL RAting Approve Disapprove Don't KnowKeY

57 42

1



39%

57%4%Source: SurveyUSA,

Sept. 27-28; 600 adults (IVR)

37 62

1



56%

42%2%

Source: Rasmussen Reports, Aug. 11; 500

likely voters (IVR)

neW HAMpSHireIn the seat left open by the retirement of

GOP Sen. Judd Gregg, Democrats are united behind Rep. Paul Hodes. Republicans are still sorting things out in the primary field.

While this Senate seat is widely regarded as one of the top Democratic pickup opportunities — the other best shots are Missouri and Ohio — Hodes had a bad August, marked by criticism that he avoided large-scale public events on health care.

In a state that’s emerging as a bellwether in the health care debate, Hodes probably didn’t do himself any favors by referring to reform opponents as the “flat-earth society.”

Former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, a top GOP recruit, led Hodes in a matchup in the most recent polling, but she has to win the nomination first — and that’s not a certainty.

OHiOOhio Democrats have been on a recent roll,

with Sherrod Brown knocking off incumbent GOP Sen. Mike DeWine in 2006 at the same time that Ted Strickland won the open governor’s race. Last year, Obama won the state with 51 percent of the vote, the best Democratic presidential performance in Ohio since 1964.

That makes the Senate seat left open by the retirement of GOP Sen. George Voinovich one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in 2010.

Two Democratic statewide officials are vying for the nomination: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, with Fisher leading slightly in the polls.

In the Republican primary, former Rep. Rob Portman is the GOP establishment favorite and leads by a wide margin in polls over Cleveland-area auto dealer Tom Ganley.

MiSSOuriOn the heels of John McCain’s razor-thin,

4,000-vote win over Obama in 2008, Missouri is due for another nail-biter next year in the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond.

The contest will most likely be between candidates from two of the state’s most prominent families: Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and Republican Rep. Roy Blunt.

Carnahan, the daughter of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan — and sister to Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan — was the party’s top pick from the beginning. Blunt, the father of former Gov. Matt Blunt, faced grumbling from many within the state party who worried that the former House minority whip’s Washington ties would serve as a millstone around his candidacy.

A recent Rasmussen poll showed the race deadlocked.

45 54

1



50%

50%0%

Source: Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 14; 500

likely voters (IVR)

47 52

1



48%

50%2%Source: Rasmussen

Reports, Sept. 23; 500 likely voters (IVR)

49 49

2



44%

54%3%

Source: SurveyUSA, Sept. 27-28; 600

adults (IVR)

KAnSAS/MASSACHuSeTTS/DelAWAre

In solidly Republican Kansas, where GOP Sen. Sam Brownback is giving up his seat to run for governor, the real action is in the GOP primary. Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are battling for the nomination in a state where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1932.

Likewise, in solidly Democratic Massachusetts, the Democratic special election primary to fill the late Sen. Ted Kennedy’s seat is the race to watch. While four credible Democratic candidates have surfaced, the two who are best-known are state Attorney General Martha Coakley and Rep. Michael Capuano.

In Delaware, GOP Rep. Michael Castle's decision to run for Vice President Joe Biden's old seat gives Republicans an excellent shot at picking it up — even if his opponent is Biden's son Beau, the state's attorney general. A recent poll showed Castle with a slight lead.

36 62

2



41%

58%

1%Source: Rasmussen


37 62

1



54%



TexASThe Texas Senate seat isn’t

open — yet. But GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is running for governor against Republican incumbent Rick Perry, has said she will resign her seat later this fall.

If she does step down, Texas law calls for Perry to make an interim appointment to Hutchison’s seat. Then comes a May 2010 special election — an all-party primary, with the two leading vote-getters moving into a runoff if no one wins a majority of the vote. The runoff would be held no more than 25 days later.

While the Republican field is highly fluid, Houston Mayor Bill White, a Democrat, has been methodically building support and would be well-positioned in the special election.

FlOriDAIn the aftermath of the presidential

election, the Senate seat held by Republican Mel Martinez looked to be one of the top Democratic targets in 2010.

Obama had just carried the state, and polls suggested Martinez was highly vulnerable. Then, in December 2008, the first-term incumbent announced he would not seek reelection.

His surprise decision scrambled the 2010 field, but the outcome was pretty good for Republicans when popular GOP Gov. Charlie Crist decided to run for the seat and became the clear front-runner.

Crist, who is not popular among conservative activists, has a primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio and a credible Democratic opponent in Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami, but one year out from the election, Crist looks to be in decent shape and ranks as the favorite to keep this seat in GOP hands.

KenTuCKYIt’s not often that the national

party breathes a sigh of relief when an incumbent steps down, but that’s exactly what happened when unpopular and low-on-cash Republican Sen. Jim Bunning announced earlier this year that he would not seek reelection.

The GOP establishment has unofficially settled on Secretary of State Trey Grayson as the pick to succeed the 77-year-old Bunning, but Rand Paul, the son of former presidential candidate and Texas GOP Rep. Ron Paul, is making Grayson work hard to earn the nomination.

Democrats have a competitive primary of their own, featuring two well-known statewide pols: Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, who nearly defeated Bunning in 2004, and state Attorney General Jack Conway.

While Democrats have picked up the governorship and two House seats in recent years, the national party isn’t likely to be an asset in this race (except for its cash infusions, of course). Obama lost the state by a wide margin, and he continues to struggle in Kentucky polls.

55 44

1



43%


Reports, Sept. 16; 1,000 likely voters (IVR)

48 51

1



42%


Reports, Aug. 17; 1,000 likely voters (IVR)

57 41

2



39%

57%

4%Source: SurveyUSA,

Sept. 27-28; 600 adults (IVR)

KAnSAS

MASSACHuSeTTS

DelAWAre

10

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