GLACIER RETREAT AND ENSO

Eighth Grade Math Academic Night By: Gabriel Baus, Mateo Hernández, María Isabel Galarza, Juan José Pena 4/29/2015

Did you know...

Due to ENSO, 22% of the Glacier 15 in Antisana has been lost in the last 48 years?

Background Information of ENSO

ENSO means El Niño Southern Oscillation. ENSO are the changes that occur on the Pacific Ocean that come from variabilities on water currents, temperatures and atmospheric pressure.

There are two types of changes: El Niño (warm current) and la Niña (cold current).

Enso happens because the easterly trade winds diminish and warm pull of water in the west moves back to the east. The upwelling of cold water to South America decreases reducing the nutrients to fish and other marine animals.

During La Niña, the water temperatures lower and precipitation doesn’t fall. More upwelling occurs.

In an El Niño event, the water temperatures increase and the surface levell of the sea rises. Heavier rains fall in the coasts of South America.

Background Information Of Glacier 15 Retreat

The Glacier Retreat is a problem in the Andes. From year 2000 to 2004 about 64,000 squared meters of glaciers were lost.

During 1996-2004 Glacier 15 in Antisana lost about 20 meters per year while the year before (1995-1996) it only lost 4.56 meters.

From 2000- 2004, the Glacier lost more than 64,000 squared meters of its mass.

The Glacier is located at a height between 4820 and 5760 meters above sea level.

Our Lab What is the effect of ENSO in the Andean region ?

For our lab, we took the temperatures of Galapagos for the last seven months and made an average each month and graphed the temperatures.

We found a best fit line for the scattered points and gave the line an equation based on our predicted slopes and y-intercept.

After this we compared the temperatures with the Southern region of Galapagos in the last five years with a scatter plot and equation. We wanted to see an increasing pattern in temperature throughout time.

We also used info about Antisana’s Glacier 15.

Galapagos Temperatures from the last seven months

X is # of month, since SeptemberY is the average Sea TemperatureSlope is .8132Y-intercept is 20.853

Calculation

How did we get our equation and line?

Final Equation: y= 5/6x+ 30.8333

Average Temps Galapagos 2010-14

X is # of year, since the first measurementY is the average Sea TemperatureSlope is .473Y-intercept is 21.387

Retreat of Glaciers

X is # of year, since 2000Y is the average Sea TemperatureSlope is -16804Y-intercept is 379019

Conclusion This investigation helps us predict a near future. Using our equation, in only five years (2021) the area of the glacier will only be of 26, 135 meters squared and it will probably continue getting smaller.

We learned that in the last four years, the sea temperature increased almost 2.5 degrees in average. The relationship in the slope of the lines between Glacier’s Mass and temperatures is corresponding. As one line goes up (Sea Temperature), the other goes down.This equations helped us realice what could happen if we don’t make a change in the future years… or why not now?

APA Sources

Info: Climate Variability and Change—Hydrological Impacts (Proceedings of the Fifth

FRIEND World Conferenceheld at Havana, Cuba, November 2006), IAHS Publ. 308, 2006.

(n.d.). Retrieved April 28, 2015, from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1623/hysj.2005.50.6.925

  Journal of Glaciology. (n.d.). Retrieved April 14, 2015, from http://www.igsoc.org:8080/journal/ 

Pictures: Flores, E. (n.d.). EL MAJESTUOSO ANTISANA SE ERIGE ENTRE NAPO Y

PICHINCHA. Retrieved April 27, 2015, from http://www.andes.info.ec/es/majestuoso-antisana-erige-entre-napo-pichincha.html

ENSO Discussion 2012. - Weatherzone Forums. (n.d.). Retrieved April 29, 2015, from http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1050469/40