egypt independent - jun, 07

7/31/2019 Egypt Independent - Jun, 07

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Presidency hinges onfrustrated electorate

Swing votes

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Issue no. 47 June 2012

The Mubarak trial: Justice isblind, but has a guide dog

The osmosisof Syrias strife

Nights in a Bulaqsteam room

The state has never succeededin quelling revolutionary waves15

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LE5

C o p y, r i g h t ?


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2 News Briefs

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7 June 2012

Changing the heatParliament approved proposedamendments to the Police Corps Act on Monday, aiming to im-prove the working and nancialconditions of low-ranking policeo cers. I thank Parliament andthe military council, and pledgethat the police will continue to

ght arms smuggling and drugs,said Interior Minister MohamedIbrahim, for which he receiveda standing ovation. Some MPssuggested these amendmentsin response to repeated protests by thousands of low-rankingpolice o cers across the nationdemanding be er work condi-tions. e amendments includechanging the wage system, creat-ing a rank of honor o cer andstreamlining promotions.

Two policekilled in SouthSinaiTwo policemen were killedand ve police personnel wereseverely injured Monday by gun re during the pursuit of a suspected criminal in WadiFeiran in South Sinai. Mahmoudal-Hefnawy, South Sinai security director, said that the suspect isaccused of kidnapping touristsand robbing cars. A police o -cer took heavy re while chasingthe suspect. Two police o cers were killed and ve police per-sonnel were injured, includingCaptain Mohamed Ahmed Tahaand Private Mohamed Ahmed Ameen, said a security source.

e source added that the injured policemen are currently incritical condition.

Peoples Assembly

Gulf spook scares MP

Editors note

Head of Qatari IntelligenceService Ahmed bin Nasser Bin Jassim al- anis visit to Cairoin May sparked controversy inthe Peoples Assembly Sunday, with MP Mostafa Bakry ling arequest for information to theforeign a airs minister over the visit. DPA reported that theQatari o cial arrived Cairo on25 May for discussions withEgyptian o cials. News reportssaid that bin Jassim held meet-ings with prominent gures fromthe Muslim Brotherhood, claimsthat the group denied. Bakry saidthat what happened is foreignintervention in the countrysa airs. Basel Adel, an MP for theFree Egyptians Party, led similarrequests to the interior minister.

Egypt Independent is back with its weekly print newspa-per a er a self-imposed stoppage in response to a censor-ship controversy. We return at a time when Egypts revolution faces an im-

passe. A revolution celebrated by everyone is today strug-gling both to undo the past and reimagine the future. Ourfocus this week is on disappointing verdicts in the trial of members of the former regime and limited, frustratingoptions in the presidential race. But these are only mani-festations of the larger struggle Egypt faces. Endless pos-sibilities still abound.

Egypt Independent looks to these spaces where we ndhope - in Parliament, on the street, on the margins, theplaces where high politics are contested and new, small but important ba les are being fought. Our newspaperexamines and criticizes, but it also embraces hope, even when that sentiment is hard to come by.

We invite you to join us on these pages every week, start-ing with our comeback edition today.

Mostafa Bakry

Top cop stays in jail

Hassan Abdel Rahman

Major General Hassan AbdelRahman, former head of the StateSecurity Intelligence Services onMonday will stay in detention for15 more days pending investiga-tions over the destruction of statesecurity. Abdel Rahman wasamong former Interior MinisterHabib al-Adlys top deputiescleared by Cairo Criminal CourtSaturday of charges of killingprotesters between 28 and 31 January 2011. Judge MohamedShawky, whom the justiceminister assigned to investigatethe damage and destruction of state security documents, accused Abdel Rahman of damaging statesecurity documents based onaccusations by former InteriorMinister Mahmoud Wagdy.

To their defense

PEC: No bad money, yet

Jamaa al-Islamiya preps for Shaq Jamaa al-Islamiya is ready to makenew sacrifices if Shafiq comes topower, said MP Amer Abdel Rahim,speaker for the movements politicalparty in Parliament, the Construc-tion and Development Party. Thegroup was the first to confront ex-President Hosni Mubarak, he added. Jamaa al-Islamiya engaged in armed

confrontations with government se-curity forces in the 1990s, seekingto overthrow the Mubarak regimeand establish an Islamic state. How-ever, in the late 1990s, the groupannounced it would abandon its violent ideology, and apologizedfor previous attacks that had killedhundreds.

e trial of 43 NGO workers wasadjourned on Tuesday until 4 July.Nineteen US nationals, 14 Egyptians,

ve Serbians, two Germans and threecitizens of other Arab countries areaccused of receiving illegal fundingfrom foreign organizations and gov-ernments, and operating without per-mits. Only 17 defendants appeared in

the dock Tuesday. Defense lawyers re-

quested that defense witnesses be al-lowed to give testimony to the court,that the documents seized fromFreedom House in a previous raid betranslated into Arabic, and that an of-

cial from the Social Solidarity Min-istry be summoned to give testimony,and presented documents indicatingthat the ministry had previously ap-

proved funding Freedom House.

Maher al-Beheiry, senior vice presi-dent of the Supreme ConstitutionalCourt and member of the PresidentialElections Commission, said on Mon-day that the Central Auditing Author-ity did not report any violations tothe commission regarding donations

received by presidential candidates northeir campaign expenses. Beheiry told Al-Masry Al-Youm that even formercandidates are obliged to deliver thecommission statements detailing theircampaign spending by the 21 Junedeadline.

Foreign defendants in the NGOs case leave Cairo

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3News7 June 2012

V i r g i n i e N g u y e n


The di fcult standoBrotherhood utncertain as runoff promises fierce fight

By Noha El-Hennawy

As he second round o he much-an icipa ed presiden ial poll growsnearer, he batle be ween he Mus-lim Bro herhoods nominee andHosni Mubaraks las prime minis-

er in ensi es, wi h he ormer ail-ing o mobilize a base o suppor beyond he Islamis cons i uency and he later s ruggling o shakeo he s igma o he deposed re-gime.

Te Bro herhoods MohamedMorsy and Mubarak-era PrimeMinis er Ahmed Sha q are se ocompe e in he runo scheduled

or 16 and 17 June. In he rsround, held on 23 and 24 May,each candida e ook abou a quar-

er o he vo es, wi h more han hal o vo ers choosing one o he o her11 candida es.

Beyond the Brotherhoods baseSince he announcemen o he

rs rounds resul s, he Bro her-hood has been calling on di erenpoli ical groups o rally behind

heir candida e in order o de ea asymbol o he old regime.

Bu poli ical players who couldhelp bring skep ical vo ers over oMorsys side are showing a reluc-

ance o endorse he Bro herhoodscandida e wi hou subs an iveguaran ees ha he group would be willing o share power once icomes o o ce.

So ar, here are no clear guaran-ees, Ahmed Maher, a leader o he April 6 You h Movemen , said. Soar, we are in he phase o alking

and here has been no agreed-uponchar er ye .

Maher argued ha any agreemen wi h he Bro hers should ake he

orm o a signed documen o en-sure heir commi men .

Te Bro hers have o sign. Weried hem be ore. Tey would

agree on some hing and a week la -er hey would change heir minds,added Maher.

Maher said he Bro herhoodmus ensure ha he Cons i uen Assembly, he group elec ed by heBro herhood-domina ed Parlia-men and asked wi h wri ing henex cons i u ion, is represen a iveo all poli ical orces. Afer Islamis satemp ed o ll he assembly wi h

heir suppor ers, an adminis ra ivecour ruling dissolved i afer a law-sui argued ha i was no repre-sen a ive o all Egyp ians.

Maher wan s he nex prime min-is er and all vice presiden s o come

rom ou side he Bro herhood andhave heir au hori ies clearly s ipu-la ed i his group is o back Morsy.

So ar, Morsy has vowed o ap-poin a prime minis er rom ou -side his organiza ion and showedno resis ance o appoin ing vicepresiden s rom ou side his group.Te Cons i uen Assembly re-mains in limbo. As Egyp Indepen-den wen o press, he Supreme

Council o he Armed Forces washolding a mee ing wi h 18 po-li ical par ies o discuss a way ou ,amid specula ions ha he gener-als migh bypass Parliamen andissue a cons i u ional declara ion wi h he cri eria or he assemblysmembership. Te Bro herhood re-

used o send a delega ion o hemee ing. In an o cial s a emen ,

by a group o secular par ies andpublic gures.

Te documen envisages he es-ablishmen o a democra ic, civil

s a e wi h ull separa ion be weenhe hree branches o governmen ,

respec o individual and publicreedoms and an independen judi-

ciary. Te documen , which seem-ingly aims a preemp ing Islamis satemp s o es ablish a religiouss a e, s resses a res rained role orSharia.

In he same speech, Sha q de-clared his suppor or reedom o expression and equali y be weenall ci izens.

Sha q is rying o widen his sup-por base and o capi alize on heMuslim Bro herhoods mis akes,

said Maher, hailing Sha qs s a e-men as clever.He made huge promises ha

can atrac some liberal and secu-lar par ies ha always oppose heBro hers. Bu a group like April 6canno be atrac ed o him, Mahersaid.

Since endorsing a remnan o Mubaraks regime remains incon-ceivable, Mahers group is s ill

weighing i s op ions be ween backing Morsy in re urn or cer ainconcessions or boycoting he pollal oge her.

Younis said Sha qs campaign is bound o vic ory.

In he rs round, Sha q wasrying o atrac he orces rela edo he old regime. Tis is why he

used o make provoca ive and vio-len s a emen s so ha he can be-come he symbol o hese orces,said Younis. Bu afer he becameso sure o he suppor o hese orc-es, he is now rying o atrac o her

orces rom ou side his camp.He described his view o a suc-

cess ul campaign.A success ul campaign is he

one ha guaran ees he suppor o i s main cons i uency, avoids any in ernal spli s wi hin ha cons i u-ency and hen s ar s playing wi ho her orces, Younis said.

In he mean ime, Younis dis-missed Morsys campaign as per-

plexed and incapable o wideningi s base o suppor . Abdel Azim, however, dis-

agrees.Ahmed Sha q won be presi-

den , he FJP leader con ended.Tis [belie ] is based on our po-li ical orecas s and he majori y o views we hear on Egyp ian s ree s

rom Alexandria o Aswan.

Bro herhood belonged o he oldregime, invoking deals he grouphad allegedly s ruck wi h he ous -ed presiden s securi y appara usahead o he 2005 parliamen ary elec ions.

Te 71-year-old presiden ialhope ul is banking on rising an i-Islamis sen imen ha mani es -ed i sel in he rs round o hepresiden ial poll. Afer securingmore han 40 percen o he vo esin he parliamen ary poll las all,

he Bro herhoods candida e couldno garner more han 25 percen in

he rs phase o he presiden ialrace. Some exper s atribu ed hisdecline o he Bro hers poor per-

ormance in Parliamen and earso he groups inclina ions o hijack

he s a e.Sha q has cons an ly addressed

you h-led revolu ionary groups,saying ha heir revolu ion was hi- jacked by he Bro herhood. He hasalso played on he ears o many

Egyp ians ha he Bro hers mighes ablish a religious s a e i hey win he presidency.

I represen he civil s a e and heBro hers represen sec arianism,Sha q said.

Besides nega ive campaigning,Sha q announced his suppor o

he so-called covenan docu-men , a char er drafed las week

Shafq strives to branch outSha q ook mos observers andpoli icians by surprise wi h his re-sul s in he rs round. Te ve eranmili ary pilo , s riking an aggressivean i-Islamis one and campaigningon a pla orm o s abili y and secu-ri y, exceeded expec a ions, gar-nering 24 percen o he vo e, jus behind Morsy.

Some o he ou run con endersques ioned he in egri y o he poll,arguing ha i was xed o ensureSha qs vic ory. Tey mobilizedpro es s demanding his exclusion

rom he second round.Meanwhile, Sha q has been seek-

ing o reach ou o new cons i uen-cies ahead o he runo .

On Sunday, Sha q gave a speechin which he voiced a ru hless cri i-cism o he Bro herhood, accusing

he group o s anding or sec ari-anism, regression, darkness andsecrecy. Paradoxically, Mubaraks

ormer depu y con ended ha he

he group voiced i s opposi ion oany atemp by he generals o in-

er ere wi h he process o elec inghe Cons i uen Assembly. According o Sheri Younis, a

his orian and poli ical commen a-or, he Bro herhood is reluc an o

make any angible and immedia econcessions in re urn or endorsingMorsy because i mus have s rong

eelings ha i is on he edge o los-ing he presiden ial race.

I he Bro hers are no sure hahey will lose, hey mus be a leasear ul o he high possibili y o heir de ea , Younis said. Tis is

why hey do no wan o make con-cessions o anyone.

Con rol over he Cons i uen As-sembly because o i s dominancein Parliamen , Younis believes, isa par icularly impor an card ha

he Bro herhood can play in heeven o a Sha q presidency.

Te Bro hers re u e his in erpre-a ion, insis ing ha hey are de er-

mined o reach an agreemen wi ho her poli ical groups over con en-

ious maters.For us, building consensus is

no an elec oral ac ic bu a na-ional principle. We have been

keen o do ha , said Ha em Abdel Azim, a lawmaker represen ing heBro herhoods Freedom and Jus-

ice Par y.Te Bro hers are no responsibleor he ailure o build a consensus,

he said, puting he blame on o herpoli ical orces, whose demandskeep changing every hour.

Te Bro herhoods leadershiphas also held alks wi h he hird-and our h-place candida es, Ham-deen Sabbahi and Abdel Moneim Abouel Fo ouh, hoping hey wouldannounce heir suppor o Morsy and bring in he more han 8 mil-lion vo ers who backed he wohope uls in he rs round.Backers o he de ea ed candida eshave made several demands, in-cluding heir appoin men as vicepresiden s. La er on, a proposal

ha bo h, along wi h Morsy, orma presiden ial council was pu or- ward.

If the Brothers are not sure that they willlose, they must be at least fearful of the highpossibility of their defeat

Shafiq is trying to widen his support baseand to capitalize on the MuslimBrotherhoods mistakes

Sha q receives a Quran fom the Tourism Union

Sha q leads prayers at a campaign con erence


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4 News7 June 2012

If you haventestablishedwhere the bulletfor the victimcame from, thenyou cant indictsomeone forfailing to pre-vent the crime

When relying on Interior Ministry investigations, youneed a special transitional justice court mechanism todeal with that, but it didnt happen

A h m e d E

l m a s r y

By Nadine Marroushiand Ahmed Zaki Osman

hile a landmark ruling in he his-ory o Arab rulers, oppled Presi-

den Hosni Mubaraks sen enceo li e in prison is marred wi h

legal loopholes and poli ical in er erence, ob-servers say.

Presiding Judge Ahmed Re aa announcedhe criminal cour was sen encing Mubarak

and ex-In erior Minis er Habib al-Adly o li ein prison, while acquiting Mubaraks sons,

ugi ive businessman Hussein Salem and six senior In erior Minis ry o cials.

Mubarak and Adly were charged wi h ail-ing o s op he murder o more han 800pro es ers across he na ion be ween 28 Janu-ary and 31 January 2011. Meanwhile, Re aasaid he prosecu ion did no presen concre eevidence iden i ying he perpe ra ors o hekillings, and ha con radic ory wi ness es-

imonies led o he acquital o he six seniorIn erior Minis ry o cials.

For many, he verdic s are con radic ory.[Te judge] applied a s andard on Muba-

rak and Adly or ailing o preven he killings, which he hen didn apply o Adlys assis an s,some hing I s ill don unders and, said HebaMoraye , he Egyp researcher or HumanRigh s Wa ch. Accordingly, Moraye hinks he verdic layshe ounda ion or an appeal o Mubarak and

Adlys sen ences.I you haven es ablished where he bulleor he vic im came rom, hen you can in-

ailed o do ha , she says.During he fh session o Mubaraks rialon 9 Sep ember, police o cer Essam Shawky,

he eigh h wi ness in he case, old he courha Adly ordered securi y o cials o quell he

an i-governmen pro es s by any means.Te nin h wi ness, Police General Hassan

Abdel Hameed, corrobora ed Shawkys es-imony. He old he cour ha he atended a

mee ing on 27 January, during which Adly or-dered he implemen a ion o Plan 100, a se-cre plan whereby police would de er pro es -ers rom reaching ahrir Square by any and allmeans. Tese wo es imonies were believed

o incrimina e bo h Adly and Firs Assis anIn erior Minis er or he Cen ral Securi y Forces Sec or Major General Ahmed Ramzy,one o he acquited o cers.

Bu Re aa said ha hese es imonies con-radic ed o hers rom police o cers inves i-

ga ed by he prosecu-ors. On he our h

session on 8 Sep ember, one wi ness old

he cour ha nei herMubarak nor Adly gave securi y orcesorders o shoo pro-

es ers. wo wi ness-es said hey were old

o show sel res rain . Accordingly, Re-aa said ha he

cour decided no oake all con radic-ory es imonies in o accoun . He added hahose who ac ually killed he pro es ers were

no brough o he cour and ha prosecu orscould no iden i y hem.

Te judges did no consider he videossubmited o he cour as concre e evidenceagains he six o cials. Shawky, he eigh h wi ness in he rial, had presen ed a DVD hahe said con ained scenes showing police ringon demons ra ors.

Wi hou providing de ails, Re aa said hecour was suspicious o all he records pre-sen ed by he Cen ral Securi y Forces, includ-ing records ha lis ed weapons given o secu-ri y orces on 28 January, dubbed he Friday o Anger.

Fur hermore, he cour said ha here wasno echnical evidence indica ing ha gunsho wounds killed he vic ims. Re aa added hamedical repor s, even i rue, did no provideevidence regarding he iden i y o hose whokilled he pro es ers.

Prosecu ors ailures were also highligh edin he nancial corrup ion charges. Muba-

dic someone or ailing o preven he crime. You have o prove he crime ook place rs ,she says, sugges ing he Cour o Cassa ion would accep he appeal, which would meana re rial.

Like Re aa , Moraye charges prosecu ors wi h no doing heir job properly.

Tey had a lack o poli ical will and capaci-y, she says, explaining ha ins ead o blaminghe In erior Minis ry or no coopera ing, he

prosecu ion should have prosecu ed againshe In erior Minis ry or ailing o collabora e

wi h he prosecu ion. I he prosecu ors weno he s ree , or example, saying ha he In e-

rior Minis ry was re using o help, hey couldhave goten a lo o public suppor , bu hey

Transitional injusticeMubaraks verdict creates critical judicial battles

Mubarak on the day of his verdict

W

raks sons, Gamal and Alaa, and Salem wereaccused o purchasing public proper y a be-low-marke prices. However prosecu ors hadoverlooked a 10-year s a u e o limi a ions in

he Penal Code or non-s a e employees beingprosecu ed on corrup ion charges.

Im shocked ha his is some hing hacame up much la er. I should have been super

obvious, says Mor-aye .

Te case, he ver-dic and he prosecu-

ion have all been de-scribed as poli ical.

Te prosecu orsare he very same

gures ha were ak-ing cases agains po-li ical ac ivis s underMubarak, said Omar Ashour, visi ingscholar a he Brook-ings Doha Cen er.

Te makeup o he prosecu ion and hecour is precisely why many believe a caseagains a deposed dic a or should no be riedin an unre ormed cour , promp ing discus-sions abou ransi ional cour s o re-emerge.

When relying on In erior Minis ry inves-iga ions, you need a special ransi ional jus-ice cour mechanism o deal wi h ha , bu

i didn happen, said Karim Ennarah, a re-searcher on securi y sec or re orm a heEgyp ian Ini ia ive

or Personal Righ s.However, he cur-

ren condi ions provide litle hope or

ransi ional jus ice.Tere is someprobabili y ha [aspecial ribunal]could happen, bu[ ha is] less likely because he balanceo power is il ed o

he s a us quo, i.e. he generals, says Ashour,re erring o he in erim rule o he SupremeCouncil o he Armed Forces, which assumed

he powers o Mubarak ollowing his ous er.Te adminis ra ors o Mubaraks regime

are s ill in power a he In erior Minis ry, hees ablishmen , and even he Jus ice Minis ry and he judiciary, Ashour says. Challenges o

he s a us quo are only among revolu ionaries, who are in ahrir, wi h some in Parliamen .Bu he balance o power is no il ed oward

hem.

Habib al-Adly

Ahmed Ramzy

Ahmed Refaat


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5News7 June 2012

A r c

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Sins of the fatherMubarak posited himself as Egypts patriarch, now hes in jail

By Ali Abdel Mohsen

At a small gathering around a kiosk in downtown Cairo, a handful of strangers discuss an unprecedentedhistorical event over soda bo lesand cigare es.

Less than three hours earlier, de-posed President Hosni Mubarak had been sentenced to 25 years inprison for the killing of protestersduring the uprising of 2011. Hisinterior minister at the time, Habibal-Adly, received the same sentence.Six senior ministry o cials whofaced the same accusations wereacqui ed, along with three gures who faced corruption charges:Mubaraks sons, Gamal and Alaa,and fugitive businessman Hussein

Salem .How does that make sense? de-mands Hassan, one of the sour-facedmen. How can you nd Mubarak guilty and his aides innocent?

Because the argument can bemade that they were just receivingorders, replies an older, rounderparticipant.

is is our fault; we gave them allthe chances they needed to issue asentence like this. We let them shreddocuments and burn down o ces where the evidence we needed waskept.

Let who burn what down? asks Atef, the kiosk owner, with a thinsmile. at was us, we did all that.

We were the ones who startedthe res and looted and vandalized,chimes in the kiosk owners 14- year-old son. e statement leads toanother line of argument that con-cludes on an ominous note.

e streets will be ooded with weapons and inmates worse than before, Ahmed says.

Its a shame, they havent evennished renovating the Sayeda

[Zeinab] Police Station, the kiosk owner laments, nodding toward thenearby building.

Unsurprisingly, the Mubarak ver-dict, in the immediate hours follow-ing its announcement, dominateddiscussion among his former con-stituents. A brief walk down Qasral-Aini Street was met with snippetsof frustration and anxiety: ey think were idiots, Its all goingto burn, youll see, His kids willavenge him, Pulling us back but well drag them forward and e

devil himself. But beyond the feel-ings of discontent, the verdict hasalso inspired re ections of a di er-ent and some would say belated

kind.Political scientists have o en

delved into theories of patriarchy when trying to understand and ex-plain the Egyptian political system.But on the ground, the reality ismore complex.

How many people, out of allthose you talked to, expressed any kind of sympathy for the man?asks Hajj Omar Hamdan. If some-one tries to feed you that Mubarak is my father line, do me a favor andtell them youre an orphan.

e 67-year-old proprietor of aMawardy Street caf remembers theearlier stages of the revolution, whenfollowing several days of unrest,Mubarak nally broke his silence with a televised speech meant to tugat the nations heartstrings and gar-ner sympathy for an old, apologeticfather gure. Hamdan insists that,even then, he wasnt convinced.

You fail at killing as many of yourchildren as you were planning on,and then you go on TV and claim to be our father?

Hamdan ends his question with astream of insults before recountingthe 72 hours of pure torture he ex-perienced when his son disappeared

in the early chaos of Tahrir.A real father roams the street,

tearing out his hair in despair overhis missing son. My boy was ar-rested and beaten and let loose only because God knew I wouldnt have been able to handle losing him, hesays. When I picked him up, he wasnt making sense and had 3-day-old blood on his clothes.

is is not a sad story Im telling you, Hamdan says, interruptinghimself. Its a happy one, the happi-est Ive known in 30 years.I dont want to see Mubarak exe-cuted, I want to see him humiliated.I want to see his face rubbed in it,Hamdan says.

For Hamdan, sentencing Muba-rak to death would have been theeasy way out.

Even if they keep him in a fancy cell, even if hes locked up in a gar-den hes still locked up, and fora creature like him, thats enough of a disgrace to break his senile brain,Hamdan says.

It is a far cry, then, from the sym-pathetic statements heard par-ticularly among older generations

following Mubaraks outwardly humble demeanor the night he ad-dressed a speech from a father tohis sons and daughters, and onethat is echoed heavily through thestreets of downtown Cairo.

Abdel Nasser, Sadats predecessor,destroyed Egypt by giving landto farmers who barely knew whatto do with the four piasters they used to get paid and, less clearly, by lling the country with wom-en.

Hamdan is also glad to call Sa-dat his father, and remembers hisreign fondly. You wouldnt havethought this could follow that, hesighs. He keeps his eyes glued tothe tiny television screen, watchingthe crowd in Tahrir slowly swell.

My son will be back in thestreet, he says. And Im terri edof what might happen, but I cantkeep him from going. Hes ghtingfor his future, so that he doesnt

end up like me, ght-ing for revenge.

e martyrshave been laidto rest, he says,from this worldand its shit. But

were still here, wrestling withdemons.

Mubarak in bed ahead of his verdict

If someone tries to feed you that Mubarak ismy father line, do me a favor and tell themyoure an orphan

Explain to me thisenthusiasm forlawlessness that[Egypts youth] dis-played. Thats be-cause of their fa-ther. Were a nationof abused children

During a wait in line at a sandwichstand that has turned into a politicaldebate, 32-year-old Karim al-Shimy o ers his analysis of Mubaraks truelegacy.

Look at the youth now, how they behave and their a nity for crimi-nal activity. Explain to me this en-thusiasm for lawlessness that they displayed. ats because of theirfather. Were a nation of abusedchildren, Shimy says.

Ten years his senior, Akram Ali, a janitor at a childrens hospital, quiet-ly asks, What is the most valuablething a person has what does heowe most to but those who broughthim into this world and nurturedhim? He repeats the last two wordstwice. I cannot call that man my father. He has never given me a rea-son to.

Less quietly, an older man ina galabeya interjects, My father was [President] Anwar [Sadat].He was a parent and a friend,and the only man who ever dida thing for this country. eman proceeds to describe how former President Gamal

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6 News7 June 2012

The need to know Two freedom of information bills make their way to Parliament

Creating an opennessculture requires trust anda belief that openness isnot harmful

Negotiating a balance betweenthe right to know and thestates reluctance to divulge itssecrets is particularly tough

I By Sarah Carr

n February 2011, pro es ers en ered heS a e Securi y Inves iga ion Services o cein Nasr Ci y, Cairo, and ound ream uponream o paperwork, some shredded, some

in ac . I was es imony o decades o laboriousdocumen a ion o he ac ivi ies o Egyp ianci izens; some ac ivis s ound heir own les,comple e wi h pho ographs and elephone con- versa ion ranscrip s.

Te ac was highly symbolic. In orma ion isigh ly guarded by he Egyp ian s a e, and ci i-

zens have his orically been regarded as havingno business accessing i , even when he in or-ma ion concerns hem. Under he 1971 Con-s i u ion, only journalis s were given he righ

o access news and in orma ion, and his righ was i sel cur ailed by he ca ch-all cavea , ac-cording o he regula ions se by he law.

Egyp has never had legisla ion enshrining herigh o reedom o in orma ion, bu his looksse o change, a a ime when some 90 coun-

ries across he world have adop ed a reedomo in orma ion bill, according o oby Mendel,execu ive direc or o he Canada-based Cen re

or Law and Democracy.Te righ o in orma ion is also essen ial as

an underpinning o democracy. I ci izens are opar icipa e in a real way in public decision mak-ing, hey mus have access o he in orma ionupon which decisions are being based, Mendel wro e or Egyp Independen .

In early May, members o he Peoples As-sembly Human Righ s Commitee, oge her wi h exper s, presen ed a governmen draf bill

sidered undamen al as hey wro e i . Tey include he righ o everyone o access in orma-

ion and limi s on his reedom being he excep-ion ra her han he rule. A he o her end o he spec rum, he no e

also men ions he impor ance o pro ec ing pri- vacy, na ional securi y and higher in eres s.

Nego ia ing a balance be ween he righ oknow and he s a es reluc ance o divulge i s se-cre s is par icularly ough in a coun ry wi h bo han expansive and secre ive securi y appara usand a monoli hic and chao ic bureaucracy.

Te ension is apparen even in he languageused in he bills i le; i uses he word e aha in Arabic, meaning availing. Compare his wi h

he draf law submited by a group o civil so-cie y ac ors ha includes he Egyp ian Ini ia-ive or Personal Righ s and he Associa ion or

Freedom o Tough and Expression, simply i led he Freedom o In orma ion Bill.Te idea o access o in orma ion being gran -

ed ra her han cons i u ing a righ in orms sev-eral aspec s o he governmen bill.

In he governmen s bill, Ar icle 2 enshrineshe righ o access in orma ion whenever i s

disclosure realizes a legi ima e in eres . No de -ini ion o legi ima e in eres is provided.

In con ras , he civil socie y bill s a es haevery individual has he righ o access in or-ma ion, and imposes a du y on governmen bodies o release in orma ion.

Te implici unders anding ha access oin orma ion includes he righ o use i reely wi hin he limi s o he law is urned on i s headin Ar icle 6 o he governmen s draf law. Tear icle enjoins ha records and in orma ionmay only be used or he purpose or which

hey were gran ed, and mus be des royed uponcomple ion o ha purpose.

Te civil socie y bill con ains no such res ric-ions.In addi ion o no being in keeping wi h he

spiri o reedom o in orma ion, res ric ing ac-cess is cos ly, says Amr Gharbeia, he direc or o EIPRs Civil Liber ies Program.

Gharbeia advoca es a rma ive disclosure:s a e bodies should periodically and rou inely release in orma ion ra her han require indi- viduals o reques i an expensive and ime-consuming procedure.

o his end, he civil socie y bill con ains a re-quiremen ha governmen al bodies rou inely publish comprehensive in orma ion abou

on availing records and in orma ion during adiscussion a he In orma ion Cen er or ech-nology.

Te drafing o he 48-ar icle bill was led by consul an Abdel Rahman al-Sawy, who saidduring he seminar ha i was drawn up usingUni ed Na ions recommenda ions on he righ

o in orma ion as well as American, Bri ish andEuropean legisla ion as re erences.

An explana ory no e handed ou wi h a copy o he bill lis s he principles i s au hors con-

A r c h i v a l

hemselves, including all de ails rela ed o i s or-ganiza ional s ruc ure and a guide including henames o all o cials in he body, as well as heirpowers, du ies and salaries.

Bo h bills es ablish a mechanism by whichreques s or in orma ion re used by s a e bodiesare adjudica ed by an ombudsman. Te govern-men draf law es ablishes a 12-member HigherCouncil or Records and In orma ion appoin -ed by he presiden and charged wi h receivingcomplain s abou re used reques s or in orma-

ion, among o her du ies.Curren and ormer dual na ionals, as well as

Egyp ians who are married o oreign na ion-als, would be orbidden rom being members o

he council. Tree o i s members represen hein elligence services, na ional securi y and heIn erior Minis ry.

Te council would only be obliged o meeonce a mon h, making i impossible or i o deal wi h all he likely complain s i would receive,Gharbeia says. Te appoin men o i s members by he presiden is also cause or concern aboui s independence.

Under he civil socie y bill, he presiden o he republic would appoin an in orma ion

commissioner, chosen by a majori y o hePeoples Assembly members, o moni or heimplemen a ion o he law and handle dispu es.Parliamen s choice o he in orma ion com-missioner is done in he spiri o preservinghis independence rom he execu ive branch. Addi ionally, a supreme in orma ion council would be charged wi h puting in place publicpolicies rela ing o disclosure and circula ion o in orma ion.

Moreover, he civil socie y bill limi s excep-ions o access o in orma ion by de ning hem

in de ail, including he ques ion o na ional se-curi y, which is commonly used as an elusiveno ion in draf bills, res ric ing liber ies.

Gharbeia sugges s ha a spiri o openness ismissing rom he governmen draf law.

Crea ing an openness cul ure requires rusand a belie ha openness is no harm ul. Tegovernmen draf [law] works agains his by imposing heavy prison sen ences or viola ions,Gharbeia says.

However, Gharbeia says he parliamen ary Human Righ s Commitee, headed by Mo-hamed Anwar al-Sada , is leaning oward com- bining bo h bills, aking he bes rom each o

hem


7/24

7News7 June 2012



More than cops and robbersIn Sinai, the tribe comes before the state, the state before Islamists

By Lina A alahanei Mohamed was buy-ing a mobile phone at akiosk in downtown Arishon the a ernoon of 19

May when he suddenly heard gun-re. He looked around and saw a man

with his face covered by a scarf runout of a barbershop, hop on a motor- bike driven by another masked man,and speed away. When Mohamedentered the barbershop, he foundNayef Abu Qabbal bleeding from hishead.He was dead by then, Mohamedsays. Abu Qabbal was a sheikh in the

Sawarka tribe, one of North Sinaislargest and most powerful. Weekslater, who killed the sheikh remainsa mystery, but conspiracy theoriesabound and all come back to the cen-tral issues confronting North Sinai:continuing lawlessness, ourishingIslamist militancy, and a precariousand complex relationship betweenSinai and the state.

Talk in the city is that [Abu Qab- bal] has a connection with state se-curity and has helped them arrest alot of people here, Mohamed says,echoing a view held by many inter- viewed by Egypt Independent inNorth Sinai.

e State Security InvestigationServices was toppled President Hos-ni Mubaraks brutal investigative au-thority, and was behind the arbitrary arrest of thousands in Sinai on terror-ism and smuggling charges.

We dont know who killed thesheikh. But the way he was killedshows that its probably a vende a,says Mohamed al-Menei, a traderfrom the border town of Rafah, add-ing that a few of those arbitrarily ar-rested in Sinai were reportedly iden-ti ed by security with Abu Qabbalshelp.

Menei purported that it could bea fellow tribesman who killed AbuQabbal, or a militant Islamist who

was arrested and imprisoned thanksto the sheikhs conspicuous relation-ship with the security apparatus. Heis inclined to believe the second sce-nario, he says, because the way thesheikh was killed is not manly. Cit-ing common tribal practices, Meneisays a tribesman would have shot Abu Qabbal in the leg, not the head.

Bedouins of North Sinai have

e Bedouins of Sinai see strength in their tribal tradition

A strong tribal system and representativeleadership are the real keys to dealing withexternal threats

long lamented the co-optation of the sheikhs position by the rulingregime.

In the past, the tribe would be theone choosing its sheikh and it would be an informed choice of who can best serve the tribe, said Moussa Abu Mohamed, a community leaderin the village of Mahdeya near the Is-raeli border.

But during the Mubarak era,sheikhs became an entry point forthe central government in Cairo intoSinais intricate tribal system. According to Abu Mohamed and

other North Sinai residents, a sheikhis informally pushed to the postthrough the security directorate andthe military intelligence, both activesecurity agencies in North Sinai dur-ing the Mubarak era.

ey report to the police and areloyal to state security. e security apparatus has mobilized the sheikhsagainst the people, he says.

ere are some 150 such sheikhs inNorth Sinai. ey would be the typi-cal interlocutors of the state whena government or a political party claims to establish a dialogue withthe people of Sinai. Abu Mohamed and many

other Sinai residents wantto see this systemchanged and a re-turn to the elec-tion, or at leastthe endorse-ment, of sheikhs by tribe members ratherthan just

the InteriorMinistry orthe military. While thegovernmentrelies on its se-curity servicesand networks of in-formants to control se-curity threats in Sinai, Abu

Mohamed believes a strong tribalsystem and representative leadershipare the real keys to dealing with exter-nal threats.

One much-discussed threat thesedays is that of the new and revivedmilitant Islamist groups operating inthe area.

ese groups can generally be di- vided into the more peaceful, pros-elytizing type and the more violenttype. According to various tribes-men, these groups are mainly locatedin the towns of Rafah and SheikhZuwayed. Al-Tableegh wal Dawah is one such

formation, and its generally knownfor being a peaceful group that wasfounded in the mid-1980s, follow-ing the signing of the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel.

Al-Takfeer wal Hijra, a more radi-cal group that is anti-politics, is alsocommonly cited.

It was born in the late 1970s, whenformer Muslim Brotherhood member Shokry Mostafa established it asa radical response to President Ga-mal Abdel Nassers execution of theleading Brotherhood gure SayedQutb. A reported member of the

group in Sinai, Mohamed al-Teehi, was arrested in late 2011 on chargesof blowing up the pipeline supplyinggas to Israel, but died in prison vemonths later. Another group, the Sala ya Jihad-

iya, includes many of those labeled by the Mubarak regime as outlawsand arbitrarily sentenced in absentiato prison on smuggling or terrorismcharges, according to many Bedou-ins. Many of the followers of thisgroup are reportedly less intellectu-ally tied to ideology and more moti-

vated to kill by money.Many connect the group to theGaza-based Gaysh al-Islam (Islams Army), a splinter of the PalestinianPopular Resistance Commi ees, which Israel held responsible for thekilling of eight citizens in its southerncity of Eilat when gunmen crossedover from Sinai last August. Gaysh al-Islams founder Mumtaz Daghmashis accused by Egypt of perpetratingseveral terrorist a acks in Sinai be-tween 2004 and 2006, as well as the2009 bombing in Cairos Husseintourist area. Accordingly, Egypt has been pressuring Hamas, which con-trols Gaza, to arrest Daghmash.

e other possible Gaza connec-tion in Sinai is the Jaljalat organiza-tion, which was cited by Egyptian se-curity as potentially complicit in theEilat bombing of August 2011.

But while these groups are met with frenzied anxiety in Cairo-based,Israeli and Western media, localsseem far less concerned.

I can set up a bar in Sheikh Zu- wayed and no one will talk to me,says Menei con dently.

Radical Islam in Cairo is one thingand in Sinai is another thing, says Awad Salman, a sheikh in Massoura village. In tribal societies, it is hardfor militant Islamist ideas to di use,he adds, reiterating that a militantgroup would fear unruly tribal resis-tance.

e hype around these groups, hesays, is exaggerated. According to Sal-man, fear of Islamist militants in Sinaiis in Israels interest, because it givesthe Israelis justi cation for keep-ing the peace treaty with Egypt un-changed. Salman even takes this ideafurther, suggesting that these groupsin Sinai are manufactured by Israel tocreate a threat. For evidence, Salmanpoints to a rocket reportedly redfrom Sinai into Israel last April, which

hit no one. ere are no rockets thatcan reach that far in Sinai. Plus, why would rockets be launched withouttargeting anything or anyone?

Salmans assessment may soundlike a stretch, but many analysts ar-gue that militant groups are o enintelligence agencies proxies.

e problem is that we dont haveeducated journalists among our sonsand daughters to defend us, he says.

As far as the local following of thesegroups is concerned, Salman sees animportant role for state security, ei-

ther as a reaction to its arbitrary poli-cies in Sinai or by direct in uence.When state security [arbitrarily]

arrested the men of Sinai and threw them in prisons, we demanded thatthey would be separated from mili-tant Islamists so that radical thought wouldnt di use. But no one lis-tened, he says.

Menei, the Rafah trader, has rst-hand experience with this phenom-enon. His brother was arrested in2004 and accused of smuggling toGaza. ose accused of smuggling toGaza would be put in political prisonsalongside terrorism suspects, he says.

When he came out recently, hegrew a beard and joined one of themilitant groups, Menei says, declin-ing to identify which group.

A 26-year-old sympathizer withradical Islamist groups in Sinai whospoke to Egypt Independent on thecondition of anonymity shared hisexperience, as he has just been re-leased from Egyptian political pris-ons.

I was randomly arrested in 2006on smuggling charges and was keptthere for four years until charges were dropped following an appeal,he explains.

In prison, he met several Islamistgures whom he described as ex-

tremely informative. He came back with this thought: e Islamists of Sinai are not deeply rooted in one oranother ideology. ey uctuate de-pending on who talks to them.

He knows one thing for sure: I justcame out and felt unstable. I lost my education and my father died of thepain of losing me.

Asked whether he would shoot asheikh accused of working with statesecurity in the foot, according to thetribal tradition, the former prisonersimply says, Any informer should beliquidated.

M

Fear of Islamist militants in Sinaigives the Israelis justification forkeeping the peace treaty with

Egypt unchanged


8/24

8 World Briefs7 June 2012

A F P

Anti-Africanin Israel

Pro-choice Turks

An Israeli government o cial an-nounced on Sunday that the gov-ernment would soon be allowedto detain undocumented migrants without charge for up to three years. e issue of unauthorizedmigration into Israel, primarily of

African economic migrants via theEgyptian border, has come to thenational fore in recent weeks. Lastmonth, an anti-immigrant protestin Tel Aviv turned violent whendemonstrators a acked African-run shops and smashed a car driv-en by two African men. Since then,government o cials have calledfor the arrest and expulsion of tensof thousands of Africans, mostly from Sudan, South Sudan andEritrea. An Israeli interior ministry o cial said 2,031 Africans enteredthe country during May alone.Prime Minister Benjamin Netan- yahu has said that unauthorizedimmigration of Africans threatensthe social fabric of society, ournational security and our nationalidentity.

Hundreds of citizens protested inIstanbul on Saturday in oppositionto Turkeys moderate Islamist gov-ernment introducing a bill limitingabortion to the rst four weeks of pregnancy. Currently, single womencan legally get an abortion up to10 weeks into their pregnancy formedical or economic reasons. Mar-ried women require their husbandspermission. Womens rights organi-zations in Turkey have condemnedthe proposed change to the law, butIslamic clerics and government of-

cials continue to push for it. PrimeMinister Recep Tayyip Erdoganrecently called abortion murderand said that it hinders Turkeyseconomic growth. He has called onTurkish women to have at least threechildren. Protesters chanted Abor-tion is a right and It is our bodyduring the rallies. Health MinisterRecep Akdag said last week thatthe bill would be submi ed to theparliament this month.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

A Kuwaiti court sentenced a Twi eruser to 10 years in jail on Monday on charges of insulting the ProphetMohamed, his wife Aisha and hiscompanions. Hamad al-Naqi, the22-year-old tweep, was also accusedof insulting the governments of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and for spreadingfalse news that undermines Kuwaitsimage abroad. Naqi, who was arrestedthree months ago, comes from Ku- waits Shia minority. Sectarian tensionshave been on the rise in the Gulf state.

e sentence comes amid a rise in jailterms for activists and social mediausers.

A group of militiamen took over Libyasmain airport Monday, storming it withmachine guns and armored vehicles,

and forcing airport authorities to divertights. e militiamen were angry overthe arrest of their commander, accord-ing to a Libyan security o cial. Scoresof militias formed during the countrysrevolution remain armed and outsidethe control of the central governmentin Tripoli. Elections for a 200-membercommi ee to write the countrys new constitution are scheduled to take placeon 20 June.

A plane crashed Sunday night in Lagos,the largest city in Nigeria, killing all 146passengers and six crew members. eplane crashed into anapartment block ina residential suburb,and the number of people killed onthe ground remainsunknown. e plane,

own by privately owned domesticcarrier Dana Air, was manufacturedin 1983. PresidentGoodluck Jonathan visited the crash siteon Monday as emergency services si edthrough the wreckage. is particularincident is a major setback for us as apeople, Jonathan said. An investigationis ongoing.

Hundreds of Yemeni troops, backed by tanks and with US support, arepreparing to a ack several towns on Yemens south coast that are under thecontrol of Islamist militants. Militantgroups have been empowered by theinstability caused by the uprising in Yemen over the past year. Longtimedictator Ali Abdullah Saleh resigned inFebruary. e US, which helped engi-neer Salehs replacement by his deputy,is backing the o ensive in the southand has stepped up its campaign of drone-strike assassinations of alleged Al-Qaeda members. Washington hasalso sent dozens of military trainersto help President Abd Rabo MansourHadis security forces. Militants havestaged several suicide bombings in thepast months.

Twitter crack-down in Kuwait

Libyas militiasrun amok

Disaster in Lagos

Yemen invadesYemen, with US help

Assad claims innocence

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said onSunday that not even monsters would carry out a massacre like the one that occurred inthe central region of Houla last week. Morethan 100 people were killed, nearly half of them children. Assads regime is strugglingto retain power in the face of an armeduprising, and his security forces have shownli le regard for human rights norms in theira empt to crush it. If we dont feel the pain,the pain that squeezes our hearts, as I felt it,

for the cruel scenes especially the children then we are not human beings, Assadsaid in a televised address before the Syrianparliament. It was his rst public addresssince January. Assad mocked protesters callsfor freedom in his speech. is freedom thatthey called for has turned into the [human]remains of our sons and this democracy thatthey talked about is now drowning in our blood, he said. Some 13,000 people havedied in the uprising so far.

Algerias elections bogus Algerias 10 May parliamentary elections were neither credible nor transparent, amultiparty national monitoring commis-sion said Saturday. e National ElectionsMonitoring Commission reported that there were breaches of the electoral laws from the beginning of the operation to the end. Presi-dent Abdel Aziz Boute ikas National Libera-tion Front (FLN) took 208 of the newly enlarged national assemblys 462 seats in theelection, followed by Prime Minister Ahmed

Ouyahias National Rally for Democracy with 68 lawmakers. e moderate IslamistGreen Algeria Alliance, which predicted victory ahead of the vote, won only 49 seats.Boute ika has been in o ce since 1999. emonitoring commission was comprised of representatives from the 44 political partiesthat contested the election. While its reportdid not accuse the FLN of fraud, it said, ecommission nds that the elections have losttheir credibility.

Goodluck Jonathan

More than 100 killed in Houla


9/24

9World7 June 2012

A war of last resortIn Lebanon, Syrian uprising fuels tremors along social fault lines

A F P

By Hicham Safeddine

EIRU - Deeply ucked in o he bar-ren hills o Lebanons nor heas ernregion o Hermel, he isola ed own o Ursal has become a household name

in Lebanon hanks o he Syrian uprising.Like many o her owns and villages s rad-

dling he border in his region neglec ed by hes a e, Ursals popula ion has long survived on border smuggling, mos ly o diesel, elec ron-ics and o her consumer goods. Small-sizedquarries doting he snaky road connec ing he

own o Beqaa Valley provide ano her hazard-ous, ye prized, source o income.

Bu as armed con ic ook hold o Syria, weapons became he dominan boo y. igh -ened border securi y be ween he wo coun-

ries and suspicions o Free Syrian Army move-men across he border mean ha smugglersrisked ins an dea h upon discovery. Te risk i shardly wor hwhile excep in he case o weap-ons, due o he high sums o cash involved and,in some cases, poli ical convic ions. Ursals Ab-del Ghani Jibbawi migh have been he la esplayer - and vic im- o his dangerous game.Las uesday, Jibbawi was sho dead and hreeo hers, including a Syrian, were injured a er askirmish wi h he Syrian army.

Tey were hun ing rabbi s, says Jibbawisangry a her Zahri as he s ands beside his sons blood-soaked vehicle and he en se up o re-ceive condolences ollowing he uneral.

When he opera ion happened, we calledhe [Lebanese] army. Why didn he army

head here? Tey didn have gu s, he says.Lebanese army sources and heir Syria coun-erpar s sco a he idea o rabbi hun ing inhe middle o he nigh during such imes. Te

men were smuggling weapons, hey asser .Te disagreemen be ween he people o

Ursal and he au hori ies is no simply over il-lici rade. Ursals mayor, like mos residen s,is a vocal opponen o he regime o SyrianPresiden Bashar al-Assad, and has repor edlinks wi h he Free Syrian Army. Ursal s andsou among he mos ly Shia villages in Hermelin erms o i s an i-Assad poli ics, par icularly given i s Sunni orma ion, bu he nor hern Akkar region is on Ursals side, and Lebanesesympa hies regarding he Syrian uprising arelargely de ermined along sec arian lines. Since

he in amous batle o Baba Amr in Homs,nor h Lebanon- including i s coas al ci y rip-oli - has increasingly become a haven or heFree Syrian Army, as well as or civilians eeing

he gh ing.In he pas mon h, a series o clashes, arres s,

kidnappings and assassina ions in he nor hled o a serious escala ion in poli ical rhe o-ric and violence be ween pro- and an i-Assad

orces while urning Islamis s in o a orce o bereckoned wi h.On 12 May, securi y orces arres ed Islamis

Shadi al-Mawlawi, accused o belonging o Al-Qaeda. Te ripoli-based young man hadallegedly developed links o Al-Qaeda cells while in Syria. In Lebanons nor h, Mawlawi was a well-known backer o he an i-Assad up-rising and suspec ed o supplying weapons o

he Free Syrian Army.

There is a desire by the FreeSyrian Army to control thenorth of Lebanon and turn itinto a comfortable base forlaunching operations

The Syrianconflict has notsimply seeped

into Lebanon. Ithas awakenedand fueledalready existingfault lines amongdifferent factions

His arres riggered rallies and pro es s acrosshe region. ires were burned and snap si -ins

were held in one o he ci ys main squares.Moun ing pressure led o he even ual releaseo Mawlawi, who received a heros welcome in

ripoli. Prime Minis er Najib Miqa i repor -edly pushed or he release. Miqa i hails rom

ripoli and broke o his alliance wi h ormerPrime Minis er and Fu ure Par y head SaadHariri o orm a governmen wi h he 8 March Alliance, o which Hizbullah is a member.

Tis was a serious mis ake ha o ally un-dermined s a e au hori y and signaled ur hererosion o securi y, argues Fida I ani, an ex-per on Islamis movemen s and poli ical com-men a or.

A week ollowing Mawlawis arres , an Akkarcleric named Ahmed Abdul Wahid was shodead by he Lebanese army a a checkpoinon his way o an an i-Assad rally. Hariri orcesin Beiru responded by launching an all-nigh batle o kick ou a pro-Hizbullah mili ia leader

rom heir s ronghold neighborhood o ariqal-Jdideh.

Following he killing o Abdel Wahid, I anisays Hariri ried o pose himsel as a savior, bu

his ime around people didn immedia ely lend him heir ear.

When Ahmed Hariri [Saads cousin] spoke

a he uneral, shoo ing in he air drowned ouhis speech, I ani poin s ou . Te lack o rus by people in Hariri led hem o search or al er-na ive orces.

Bu he major arena o gh ing remains heaul lines separa ing he poor dis ric s o Bab

al- abbaneh and Jabal Mohsen in ripoli. Teormer is a bas ion o Sunni Islamis orces, he

later home o an Alawi communi y and armedgroups suppor ive o Assad. Te con ron a ionreached a high poin his pas weekend, wi hover a dozen dead and many injured. Lebanesearmy orces were deployed in he ci y amid

alk o a mili ary opera ion agains he mili ias, bu wi h litle success so ar.

I ani says hese developmen s mus be un-ders ood in he con ex o he changing na ureo he Syrian con ic and he evolving dynam-ics o Lebanons complex poli ical landscape.

A er ailing o crea e a bu er zone along heurkish or Jordanian borders, here is a desire

by he Free Syrian Army o con rol he nor ho Lebanon and urn i in o a com or able base

or launching opera ions, explains I ani. TeSyrian regime in re urn has no problem urn-ing he si ua ion in o a hea ed one o ge rido elemen s o he Free Syrian Army in i s own

erri ories and expor hem o Lebanon. Akkar i s one o he mos impoverished re-

gions in he coun ry. During he years ollow-ing he 2005 assassina ion o ormer PrimeMinis er Ra k Hariri, his son and successorSaad whipped up sec arian sen imen s o galva-nize his Sunni suppor ers. Te poor, conserva-

ive popula ion o Akkar was a reservoir or hismass rallies. Bu Hariris liberal discourse andlack o s ree muscle in he ace o pro-Hizbul-lah orces led many Islamis s o s ar s eeringan independen course and weave direc links wi h Saudi Arabia and o her gul pa rons.

I ani says many o he emerging Sala lead-ers are merely vocal phenomena, wi h peopleincreasingly ocking o heir mosques o hear

heir ery speeches, wi h nowhere else o urn.Bu armed groups are also gaining currency,and I ani says he kidnapping o 11 LebaneseShia pilgrims near Aleppo on 22 May was anatemp o drag Hizbullah, which is suppor iveo he Assad regime, in o a con ron a ion and

uel sec arian ensions.We know wha weapons Hizbullah has, bu

we don know wha he o hers have amassedso ar, says I ani. I is unlikely ha he Islamis sare as organized and armed as Hizbullah as o ye , bu he si ua ion is prone o blowing upany minu e, wi h pocke s o unres erup ingin ho spo s like ripoli and par s o Beiru ssuburbs.

Te army remains in a precarious posi ion,and whispers o Syrian army in erven ion in

he nor h, hough unlikely, have begun o sur-ace. Te 8 March governmen has ared no be -er han i s predecessors in erms o improv-

ing securi y and economic condi ions. ire burning has become a regular occurrence due

o a wide range o grievances across he coun-ry. Miqa is declared policy o dis ancing one-

sel rom he Syrian crisis has only served o weaken he s a es grip on he si ua ion.

While Islamis s gain he upper hand in henor h and securi y breaches become more

requen , secular and civil socie y ac ivis s inBeiru who suppor he Syrian uprising may be

he bigges losers in his ray.Beiru -based ac ivis Saad Kurdi says i is

now more difcul o visi and aid Syrianre ugees in he nor h, who have been largely brough under he wing o Sala s or in erna-

ional organiza ions. Bu Kurdi asser s ha po-li ical ac ion in solidari y wi h he uprising hasno been o ally silenced.

We held a pro es ollowing he Houla mas-sacre and ook par in a commemora ive rally by Kurdish ac ivis s in Beiru las week, Kurdiexplains. Some ac ivis s have become hesi an

o ake par a er he breakou o violence, buo hers hink ha his is he ime o be ac iveand suppor he uprising so o her less desir-able orces don prevail.

Blogger and ac ivis Khodor Salameh is lessop imis ic.

Wha has happened in he nor h has ex-posed he sec arianism and narrow agendas o many people, and he number o ac ivis s whoare s ill ac ive and en husias ic abou he Syr-ian cause is in decline, he says.

Wi h he logic o arms aking over among

many Lebanese, he Syrian con ic has nosimply seeped in o Lebanon. I has awakenedand ueled already exis ing aul lines amongdi eren ac ions. Con rary o na ional his-

ory augh o schoolchildren in Lebanon,he coun ry does no only excel in ood ser-

vices and ourism, bu also in he making o civil wars as a las resor o local and regionalcon ic s. Many ear he ime or a new roundcould jus be around he corner.

FSA trains in Qusair

B

A r c h i v a l


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10 Economy7 June 2012

One should be very carefulabout transposing theexperiences of EasternEurope onto our countries

Money in the bank?In a new region, European Bank is told to enter with care

ex ernal liberaliza ion under he ormer re-gime. I encouraged ur her priva iza ion andpublic-priva e par nerships, which EIPR saidignored he processes rampan corrup ion andcrony capi alism.

Bankwa ch, an organiza ion moni oringlending prac ices o he EU, European Inves -men Bank and he EBRD, submited a leter wi h a similar message o he European Com-mission in March las year. Te Bankwa chleter was endorsed by 27 cen ral and Eas ernEuropean civil socie y groups.

I is prema ure o make commi men s orEBRD nancing or he Medi erranean region when i is by no means clear wha kind o gov-ernmen s will ollow he recen ly over hrownregimes. We also have serious concerns abou

he abili ies o he bank o deliver meaning uldevelopmen ou comes in he region ... in no way can i be concluded ha he EBRD hassu cien exper ise in pover y reduc ion, heleter s a es.

A March 2010 repor by US Sena es Com-mitee on Foreign Rela ions accused he EBRDand o her in erna ional nance ins i u ions o su ering rom a lack o ransparency regard-ing loan decisions, environmen al impac , in-spec ion panels, projec assessmen , e c. Te

By Nadine Marroushinder Hosni Mubaraks 30-year reign, he priva e sec or and priva iza-

ions became poli ically laden ermsassocia ed wi h a circle o business-

men buying s a e asse s or cheap due o heirconnec ions wi h he presiden and his sons.Deals were made be ween he priva e sec or,governmen and mili ary companies under a veil o secrecy serving o enrich men on op, while laymen grew poorer.

As pover y and unemploymen rose, Egypreceived praise rom in erna ional nancialins i u ions such as he World Bank and heIn erna ional Mone ary Fund or achieving7 percen GDP grow h, even as workers, heunemployed and millions o o hers el heeconomy was unjus ly managed.

News ha he European Bank or Recon-s ruc ion and Developmen is ex ending i sremi and seting up a 1 billion-euro special

und o spend by Sep ember in unisia, Egyp ,Morocco and Jordan he so-called Sou hernand Eas ern Medi erranean region is beingreceived wi h cau ion and skep icism by cen-

ral bankers and civil socie y groups.Te bank was se up in 1991 o help pos -

communis coun ries in cen ral and Eas ernEurope ha demons ra ed a commi men omul ipar y democracy ransi ion rom s a e-led o priva e sec or-led economies. TeEBRD has a manda e or mee ing environ-men al and social sus ainabili y goals se by i s 63 governmen shareholders, o which heEuropean Union and he US are among helarges .

Bu he banks role in cen ral and Eas ernEurope, where here was vir ually no exis ingpriva e sec or, has been praised or injec ingmoney when mos needed bu cri icized orinadequa ely helping coun ries gradua e rom

ransi ion. Wi h a neoliberal economic agenda ha ahe ou se did no look any di eren rom whahe region had seen be ore, and during ransi-ions ha have ye o se up he kind o checks

and balances ha encourage responsive poli-cies in place, alarm bells are ringing.

unisian and Egyp ian cen ral bankers havecau ioned he EBRD agains applying a one-size- s-all model, advising he bank o besensi ive o he regions his orical economicdevelopmen .

One should be very care ul abou ranspos-ing he experiences o Eas ern Europe on o ourcoun ries. Focusing on liberaliza ion and priva-

iza ion now migh be coun erproduc ive, u-nisias cen ral bank governor, Mus apha KamelNabli, old chie ERBD economis Erik Ber-gl be ore a ull audience a he banks annualmee ings in London las mon h.

Weve been doing ha already or 30 years,and he ac ha i was done badly and he rui so priva iza ion were aken by a small eli e wasone o he issues ha con ribu ed o las yearsrevolu ion, Nabli said.

Egyp s depu y cen ral bank governor, Raniaal-Masha , echoed his, saying ha re orms inEgyp have been aking place or a very long

ime. Many o hem were solid and s rong, bumany were also par ial and o a large ex en led

o he uprisings and Arab Spring.She said coming re orms need o ackle sys-emic s ruc ural impedimen s, such as allow-

ing or more compe i ion, ransparency andaccoun abili y.

Civil socie y groups in Egyp and Eas ern

Europe have also been ac ive in cri icizing he bank or i s pro-priva iza ion policies and orapproaching he SEMED region so early on ini s ransi ion. Mos coun ries have ye o dem-ons ra e a genuine move oward democracy and ransparency, despi e parliamen ary andpresiden ial elec ions.

In March, he Egyp ian Ini ia ive or PersonalRigh s issued a sca hing cri ique o he EBRDs

echnical assessmen o Egyp , which praised

repor cri icized he EBRD or alloca ing 41percen o i s lending o Russia, which main-

ains illiberal prac ices.I s lending program o Russia and o her en-

ergy-rich coun ries is also cri icized by Bank- wa ch or ocusing heavily on ossil uels andmining ra her han renewable energy.

Egyp ian novelis Ahda Souei echoed hese words o cau ion a he EBRD mee ings, advis-ing agains using Wes ern-s yle democracy as

he golden grail by which ransi ions are mea-sured, saying he Arab world needs a com-ple ely new model.

Souei was also cri ical o he bank pushinghe coun ry in a cer ain direc ion, especially

while i is run by unaccoun able ins i u ionssuch as he mili ary, whose powers are unlikely

o be checked by elec ions.I would advise all unding agencies o s ay

away and in erna ional bodies concerned wi hhuman righ s o help, she said.

Bu i s no all bad news when i comes o heEBRD. Some Eas ern Europeans were happy

he bank came in o heir coun ries, saying i was needed o crea e a priva e sec or and o in-fuence public deba e.

Te level o in ellec ual discussion on issuesrela ed o he economy wen up several s eps,and now you eel we live in a more civilized so-cie y. Tere is more discussion abou he legalsys em and corrup ion, Ukranian novelis An-drey Kurkov said.

Egyp s priva e sec or does need a cash injec-ion ha boos s job crea ion. Labor-in ensive

indus ries are needed or he 3 million unem-ployed, he majori y o whom are be ween 15and 29. I is a res ive cons i uency ha no lon-ger ears aking o he s ree s.

Wha concerns skep ical voices he mos is whe her he bank will use i s money wisely osuppor he indus ries ha crea e jobs, ensuring

he 40 percen pover y ra e is reduced, and go beyond saying he righ hings abou suppor -ing small- and medium-sized en erprises andrenewable energy, bu doing he righ hing.

Hildegard Gacek on EBRDs approachTe European Bank or Recons ruc ion andDevelopmen plans o expand and inves in

he Sou hern and Eas ern Medi erranean Re-gion Egyp , unisia, Morocco and Jordan s ar ing in Sep ember wi h a 1 billion-eurospecial und. Egyp Independen me wi hHildegard Gacek, he banks SEMED regionmanaging direc or, o discuss plans or working wi h he governmen , priva e sec or and civilsocie y.

Egypt Independent: Given that SEMEDcountries are starting rom a diferent basethan the ormer communist countries o central and Eastern Europe, the banks tradi-tional region o operation, in that they havealready been through privatization process-es, much o which has been problematic, will you be doing things diferently in theregion? I so, how?

Hildegard Gacek: Yes and no. Yes, we willapproach he region di eren ly, because i hasa di eren his ory and i s coun ries have exis ed

or a long ime. No, because some o he expe-

riences are relevan , such as how o work wi hhe priva e sec or, how o work wi h he publicsec or, and how o s ruc ure deals o help gov-ernmen s avoid budge ary cons rain s. We will

ry o use and share our experience, and work wi h he our coun ries, heir governmen s and

he priva e sec or.I know here have been bad examples o

priva iza ion no jus in Egyp bu in o her

coun ries, including our radi ional region bu we have no been involved in such priva-

iza ions. Tose we have been involved in wehave properly prepared and ollowed hrough,sure our money has been inves ed in a way hahas been agreed upon up ron , has crea ed val-ues in he company, crea ed jobs and improved

he company. We don priva ize and s ep ou , we priva-ize and s ay. I we s ay and i s no properly

done, hen wed lose money. I we ound i washandled wi hou good corpora e governances andards, we wi hdrew or did no do i . Com-miting our money is a very impor an elemen

o ensuring success.EI: How will you ensure that your invest-

ments in the private sector are creating jobsand helping to expand the middle class in acorruption- ree way? What benchmarks and

ollow-through mechanisms do you have inplace?

Gacek: We are applying high s andards o due diligence on whom we par ner wi h. Wecanno infuence marke s, bu we can infuencecorpora e governance s andards, ransparency,

he proper use o unds and s ronger par ner-ship. When we are inves ing, we are also s ricly moni oring. We don hand ou loans, we -nance asse s. Proper inves men is au oma i-cally linked o job crea ion. I we are nancingan agri-business, le s say a produc ion plan

or rui juice, we nance he plan and i s op-era ion needs o crea e jobs. In making sure ourmoney goes exac ly where we have approved i ,

he job crea ion comes au oma ically.EI: With what sort o relationship, and in

what ways will you be cooperating with theEgyptian government?

Gacek: One o he impor an areas is energy, because he governmen wan s o encouragerenewable energy and also look in o he energy sec or in he u ure. oge her we will also look

areas like wa er, was ewa er and rea men . Also,maybe, heir in ras ruc ure needs. Over ime we would help wi h echnical assis ance. So igoes in line no only nancing bu alsoreal suppor , so ha i can be more commercial-ized. Ta doesn necessarily mean omorrow every hing has o be done. We unders and hisis a process and during he process we wouldlike o work wi h he governmen .

U

Hildegard Gacek

C o u r t e s y o f E B R D


11/24

11Economy Briefs7 June 2012

Petrol pleas

Egyp s mos recen diesel and pe rol

shor ages are due o banks reluc-ance o inance and an increasingly s rapped governmen s appe i e orenergy impor s, hal a dozen radesources and energy suppliers oldReu ers.

he paymen problems have causedshipping delays and promp ed somesuppliers o hink again be ore o -

ering oil in o a or hcoming US$1 bill ion impor ender.

hey said delays o up o wo weeksin deliveries were a regular occurrenceahead o peak summer demand ordiesel, blaming Egyp s di icul ies in

ob aining le ers o credi rom banks

ahead o a second p residen ial vo e. An o icia l a he Egyp ian GeneralPe roleum Corp denied ha he shor -age was caused by his.

S a e news service MENA repor edMinis er o Planning and In erna ionalCoopera ion Fayza Abouelnaga as say-ing he uel crisis would be resolved ina ma er o hours on 31 May. Ahmed Mowa y, direc or o he

supply inves iga ion bureau, blamedpriva e companies or he crisis. Six o hose local and oreign companiesgave one- hird o heir produc ion o

ac ories, he said.

Pe rol shor age in Cairos Fifh Setlemen

Restructuring energy

A drop in proftsEgyp s Elsewedy Elec ric, he larges cable-producingcompany in he Arab world, repor ed a 44 percen drop in i s2012 rs -quar er pro s compared o las year las uesday,30 May. Te company said a bumpy poli ical ransi ion inEgyp and ongoing violence in Syria had dried up demand

or elec ronic cables and reduced produc ion capaci ies.

I was a larger hi han he company or analys s hadexpec ed.

Te resul s are below our es ima es, said Essam Abdel Aleem, an analys a Naeem Brokerage.

Elsewedy, which has produc ion plan s in Egyp , Syria andnine o her coun ries, also makes equipmen or wind arms.

Te depu y governor o he Cen ral Bank o Egyp has called or he res ruc uring o energy subsidies, which pose a LE100 mil-lion annual burden on he s a e budge .

Te Cabine has also demanded haParliamen clari y i s s ance on reducingpe roleum subsidies in he 2012/13 s a e

budge , according o Al-Masry Al-Youm. A source a he Pe roleum Minis ry saidhe op ions or resolu ion curren ly under

considera ion are ei her a a reduc ion o

he curren subsidy policy or he in roduc-ion o a coupon-sys em or dis ribu inggoods.

An overlyFrench Mobinil

France elecom acquired 94 per-cen o Egyp ian mobile phonecompany Mobinil, Egyp s s ock exchange said, giving he Frenchgroup con rol o a op sec orplayer in a vola ile bu lucra iveemerging marke .

Mobinil, ounded by Egyp ian businessman Naguib Sawiris, vies wi h Voda one Egyp ordominance o Egyp s mobilemarke , which was bu e ed by poli ical headwinds a er heuprising las year.

Te deal, which was subjeco a preliminary agreemen

s ruck in February, recas s heerms o i s rela ionship wi h

Sawiris, who had a pu op iono sell ou comple ely o Franceelecom s ar ing in Sep ember

2012.Sawiris agreed o keep a 5

percen s ake in Mobinil.

An annual European Unionrepor issued on 16 May urgedEgyp o reach a air rade agree-men similar o hose he blochas wi h unisia, Morocco and Jordan.

EU Ambassador o Egyp James Moran said during a press

con erence ha discussions coulds ar a er he presiden ial elec ionis nished and a new governmenis ormed, he said, an icipa ing

ha i would ake up o a year o begin he alks.

Te bila eral rade volume be-ween Egyp and he EU is valued

a 23 billion euros, Moran said.

Gas in the seaIn erna ional companies will be allowed o explore or gas o Egyp sMedi erranean coas or he rs ime, a er he Pe roleum Minis ry ob ained approval rom he De ense Minis ry or he Egyp ian Na uralGas Holding Company.

Pe roleum Minis ry sources said he De ense Minis ry reviewed heour explora ion areas near Egyp s eas ern border wi h Israel in ordero pro ec inves men s in he gas projec , which GASCO has valued a

US$4 billion.Te new areas ouch he mari ime boundary es ablished be ween

Egyp and Israel under he high seas demarca ion rea y ha Egypand mos Uni ed Na ions member s a es signed in 1983.

Te Uni ed S a es Geological Survey es ima es he gas reserves o ha region a 223 rillion cubic ee , while he Egyp ian governmen

ofcial quan i ies announced are 76 rillion cubic ee .

Pricey wheatEgyp has bough 1.1 million onso local whea so ar in he 2011-

2012 season despi e diesel shor -ages ha have hampered harves -ing, an o icial a he Supply andDomes ic rade Minis ry said on21 May.

Egyp , he worlds larges im-por er o whea , said in Oc ober ihad raised he price i pays local

armers or heir whea o LE380per ardeb (140 kg) rom LE350

during he las season o givearmers ur her incen ive o sell o

he governmen .On 30 May, he Finance Minis-ry also announced ha i would

provide he Supply and Domes icrade Minis ry wi h LE1 billion o

cover he cos o impor ed whea ,raising he sum alloca ed or hesame purpose o roughly LE4.5 bil lion since he beg inn ing o heimpor ing season.

Egyp s public prosecu or said in a 30 May s a emenha Alaa and Gamal Mubarak, along wi h seven o h-

ers, were re erred o he criminal cour on chargeso viola ing s ock marke and cen ral bank rules ogain unlaw ul pro s hrough dealings in shares in Al-Wa any Bank o Egyp , a lis ed bank .

Egyp s inves men bank EFG Hermes dipped2.6 percen a er he news. Included in he chargesare wo board members and join chie execu ivesofcers o he bank, Yasser al-Mallawany and HassanHeikal.

In he wake o he announcemen , Egyp s s ock marke los ha days gains.

Te new charges mean ha he wo sons o hecoun rys ous ed presiden will remain in cus ody even a er heir acquital on Sa urday o charges o killing pro es ers in las years uprising and embez-zling na ional unds.

More raud

Gamal and Alaa Mubarak behind bars

Naguib Sawiris

James Moran

Farouk al-Oqda

Egyp ian inves men bank EFG Hermes on Tursday said i would de end i s wo chie execu ives againsaccusa ions o illegal share dealings. Yasser al-Mallawany and Hassan Heikal were

re erred o rial on 30 May alongside he wo sons o deposed Presiden Hosni Mubarak as par o a probein o he dealings, according o he public prosecu or.

Te rm also con rms in his con ex ha i s wochie execu ive ofcers have no personal dealings,in eres s or bene s in any ransac ions rela ed o he

rading on Al-Wa any Bank o Egyp s shares, EFGHermes said.

Meanwhile, he bank old Al-Masry Al-Youm ha ihad received an o er rom Plane EP Limi ed, whichincludes a group o Arab inves ors and Egyp ian bank-ers, or a o al acquisi ion a er he cour re erral.

Te s ock exchange roze rading o EFG Hermess ock un il he company responds o inquiries abou

he de ails o his acquisi ion.

he s ock exchange made i s larges one-day decline in wo mon hs on 27 May, amid concernsover he presiden ial elec ion ou come, on op o regional uncer ain y over a possible Greek exi

rom he euro.Cairos index el l 3.5 percen , i s bigges one-day

drop since 25 March, a er wo o he mos divisivecandida es, Bro herhood leader Mohamed Morsy and ex-air orce chie Ahmed Sha iq, emerged as

he likely con enders o nex mon hs runo vo e.Some inves ors are a raid ha because we now

have he wo ex reme elemen s con ron ing oneano her, hen he coming period will no be calm,said Osama Mourad, chie execu ive o Arab Fi-nance Brokerage.

Trial or execs

Stock exchange slumpsEU pressures

H o s s a m F a

d l

A h m e d E l m a s r y


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13/24

13Focus File7 June 2012

and the tankan alternative path?

o i s power, says Shorbagy.Bu his is no an easily success ul model,

as Souei explains.Weve seen rom pas experiences ha

wi hou a uni ed ideology, as soon as heen i y is ormed, he clashes s ar , she says.

Souei says ha , in he long erm, hehird bloc could be e ec ive by being bro-

ken down in o more han one en i y hacan work separa ely bu coopera ively.However, in his phase, she says ac ing asone uni ed ron is he only way ou o hecurren crisis.

Some, like Souei , believe he hird blocmus incorpora e all an i-Sha q, pro-revo-lu ion orces o s ave o he possible re urno Mubaraks corrup regime, which wouldalso be a coup or he Supreme Council o

he Armed Forces.I his bloc uni es on some hing wi h

serious resolve, and no jus alk, hey canen orce any hing because hey represen 75percen o he vo e, she says.

Tis means working wi h he Bro her-

hood as an in egral componen o an an i-Mubarak regime movemen . Sabbahi, Abouel Fo ouh and o hers have been mee -ing wi h Morsy o convince him o he need

o orm a presiden ial council o rule hecoun ry in he in erim period.

Tere is litle clari y, however, on he basison which he Presiden ial Council demandis ar icula ed, given he ac ha an ac ualelec oral process is ongoing, wi h he par-

icipa ion o he very revolu ionaries whoseek o reverse i .

In ano her rack, ac ivis s and revolu ion-ary groups have pu oge her he so-calledcovenan documen , which looks o ex-

rac cer ain promises rom Morsy haguaran ee his willingness o be inclusive o o her major revolu ionary poli ical playersin he Cons i uen Assembly, he presiden-

cy and he Cabine o Minis ers i he is ogarner heir suppor in he elec ion.Hoping o s ill nd a role or Abouel Fo-ouh and Sabbahi, he documen would

like or hem o be wo vice presiden s, orsomeone hey would nomina e, who havea se o prese , clearly de ned roles.

Morsy himsel is expec ed o sever all

organiza ional ies o he Bro herhoodsFreedom and Jus ice Par y, o ensure heindependence o he presidency. One o

he main issues o con en ion surroundingMorsy among revolu ionaries is his alle-giance o he Bro herhood Guidance Bu-reau, which is believed o be he ul ima epoli ical ac or in he movemen .

Bu no everyone is op imis ic abou

hese ini ia ives.Wi hou poli ical discourse and a shirom he same concep o we go X amoun

o vo es, so we are a bloc o some hing haaddresses he issues more concre ely, he whole phenomenon is in danger o becom-ing obsole e soon. Tey need o inves hese vo es in o rue poli ical capi al. I havenseen hem do ha , says Wael Khalil, co-

ounder o he poli ical group Masrena.We have a problem wi h crea ing a move-

men around speci c people. Wi hou realsubs ance o weigh down he movemen s

hey helped s ar , hese people, such as Sab- bahi and Abouel Fo ouh, are in danger o becoming perennial foa ing ac ivis s.

Similarly, Sheri sees a gap be ween heeuphoria around he iden i ca ion o a

hird bloc and i s abili y o ormula e viable

poli ical proposi ions.Hones ly Im no very op imis ic regard-ing he abili y o he hird bloc o express i -sel as a s rong poli ical ac or in he currenmomen because i comes rom he ailureo o hers and lives on heir margins, saidSheri .

Sheri also believes ha proponen s o he hird bloc migh have overes ima ed he

number o Sabbahi or Abouel Fo ouh vo -ers who were non-revolu ionaries or pureswing vo ers who made heir decision a

he las second.He called he no ion o a hird bloc an ex-

ercise in poli ical absolu ism, since i akesor gran ed ha all he vo es or he wo

candida es could be incorpora ed as par o a pos -elec ion revolu ionary curren .

S ill, or some, having such a group in he

curren phase may seem like a despera eexpression o las resor , be ore acing heharsh reali y o a coming second republic

ha looks all oo similar o he previousone.

I s all we have, Sheri said. Tis is heexis en ial batle ha we have le , o crea e

his bloc.

s ar ing some hing new ha will save hiscoun ry, Manar al-Shorbagy, an AUC po-li ical science pro essor, says.

Jus like he revolu ion, Shorbagy saysha , ac ing as a movemen , he hird bloc would disprove he my h propa-

ga ed by he Bro herhood and heold regime ha hey are he only

wo al erna ives.Looking a he example o he Ke aya movemen , Shor-

bagy says ha ideological

di erences wi hin he hird bloc are no necessarily a weakness. Tose who ound-ed Ke aya in 2005 includeIslamis s, Nasseris s, le is s,liberals and na ionalis s.Some imes he fuidi y o an

organiza ion is he main source



Who will rule Egyp ? TeBro herhood supreme guide or Khaira al-Sha er?

Will he presiden o Egyp be he elec ed presiden , or will he be a presiden rom behind he cur ain?

People will elec a presiden . People won elec a puppe presiden who ismanipula ed by o hers. I represen he civil s a e.Te Bro hers represen he sec arian s a e, he Bro herhood s a e.

I represen progress. Tey represen regress. I represen ransparency and ligh .Everyone knows me. Te Bro hers only represen darkness and secrecy. No one knows

who hey are and wha hey are doing.I represen Egyp , all o Egyp . Tey represen a minori y, closed on i sel a minor-i y ha doesn accep anyone rom ou side. I represen he na ional in eres .

Te Bro hers represen revenge. I represen dialogue and olerance. TeBro hers represen exclusion, marginaliza ion and sec arianism.

My his ory is clear and disclosed o everyone. Te his ory o heir candida e is obscure. I represen s abili y. Tey

represen chaos.


14/24

14 Opinion7 June 2012

The third way By Khaled Fahmy here is no doubt that the trial of formerPresident Hosni Mubarak is a turning

point in the history of the Egyptianrevolution. While, to wit, the jury isstill out on the meaning and signi cance of theextraordinary verdict that the court issued, thisarticle tries to read the verdict by placing it withina larger historical context.

e immediate signi cance of Mubarakstrial is hard to miss. Unlike other countriesof the so-called Arab Spring, we did notlynch our former president, nor did wetry him in absentia a er he had edthe country. Further still, we didnot try him in a special tribunalformed by a foreign occupyingpower. Rather, we tried our himin a normal court using ordinary civilian legislation. Mubarakstrial thus re ects the degreeto which the Egyptian legalsystem has evolved over the pasttwo centuries. Together withnumerous other institutionsthe Egyptian judiciary has beena bulwark for our modern state- building e orts.

However, the inconsistent verdict rendered in this trialre ects the serious defects from which Egyptian institutions have beensu ering for a long time. In the speechhe delivered before reading the verdict, the judge gave an account of the trial proceedingsthat depicted the court and the prosecutionat loggerheads with each other. On its part, theprosecution had earlier accused the security forces of not cooperating with the investigations.To overcome this hurdle, the judge summonedsenior state o cials to hear their testimony, butduring four closed sessions, the court accepted

these testimonies without giving the lawyers thechance to cross-examine them. In addition topartially explaining the self-contradictory verdict,these tensions within the Egyptian judiciary arealso indicative of the grave dangers facing one of the pillars of the modern Egyptian state.

Mubaraks trial gains further signi cance forits rami cations on the current political scene,for the verdict came at a time of increasedpolarization between the two anks of Egyptspolitical life over the past 60 years, namely thesecurity state and the Muslim Brotherhood. Italso came at a time when Egyptians were stilltrying to make sense of the results of the rstround of the presidential election, and when it isgradually being realized that those who voted forthe revolution outnumber those who voted foreither of the two front-runners. Moreover, the verdict prompted large numbers of demonstratorsto take to the streets demanding not only a retrialof Mubarak, his sons and his henchmen, but alsoasking for a suspension of the second round of thepresidential election.

A third way?

ere is no doubt that we are now witnessing arevealing moment in the history of the revolution.More and more people are realizing that the glovesare now o and that the political landscape thathas been shaped by the revolution has acquired anew shape. e huge multitudes who took to thestreets following the verdict indicate the strongrepulsion for the institutions of the deep state andsuggest a growing belief that a third alternative,one that is neither the security state nor thereligious state, may hold the key to ge ing us outof the current impasse.

It is too soon to gure out what this thirdalternative looks like, and only the following few

days will reveal which form it will take. Soon we will be able to nd out whether or not thisthird alternative can avoid the trap choosing between the milita

egypt independent - jun, 07

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