27 8

参考資料 ２

1 1

2 3 2.1 3 2.2 6

3 9 4 14

4.1 14 4.2 16

5 18

5.1 18 5.2 22

5.2.1 5.2.2

5.3 35 5.4 39

5.4.1 5.4.2

5.5 42 5.5.1 5.5.2 5.5.3 5.5.4

6 45

- 1 -

1

50mm 30 1.4100mm 200mm

1.0mm

1) 26 11 IPCC2) 5

24 11

COP3)18 4)

2

20 6

25 8 5)

1) 2) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

63 WMOUNEP

3) COP Conference of the Parties 4) 2

5) ,

2013 http://www.nilim.go.jp/lab/bcg/siryou/tnn/tnn0749.htm

- 2 -

6)

XRAIN X MP

22 27 739

25 8

27 37) 27

25 12

26 1 5 12

6) H25 ,2013

http://www.mlit.go.jp/river/basic_info/seisaku_hyouka/gaiyou/hyouka/pdf/higaisihyou_h25.pdf 7)

2015 http://www.env.go.jp/press/100480.html

- 3 -

2 2.1

25 9 26 11 IPCC

5 12 3

2611

19501850 1900

1986 2005 0.61 19012010 0.19m 8)

50mm30 1.4 100mm 200mm

9) 25 11 26 1,000mm

2 1.0mm9)

19061960

2013 1.1mm 9)

40

1980 3mm 5)

23 9 12 2,000mm

24,000m3/s

1798 30,000

8) IPCC 5

, 2014 http://www.env.go.jp/earth/ipcc/5th/pdf/ar5_syr_outline.pdf

9) 2013, 2013 http://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/monitor/2013/pdf/ccmr2013_all.pdf

- 4 -

24 73 315mm

5

32 12,000 25 9 18

38,0007

12,000

10 26 800mm

36 26 8

1 3 217mm

75 50mm

2011 9

2 7804 449

2012 10

73800

2800

1

- 5 -

2

2013 11 89590m/s 30 HAIYAN 5m

2 3m7,000 1,600

2014 5120 60

25

8 500% 18

23

WMO200 2012

151.5 1981 2006

60% 2012

13%8 9

20122014 1

- 6 -

2.2

IPCC 5 210.3 4.8 0.26 0.82m

21

10)

11)

12) ,13) SRES 14) A1B

50mm2.7 200mm 1.6 12)

7.7 20cm12)

RCP 15) RCP2.6 4.5 6.0 8.5 45%

10) IPCC 5 1

, 2013 http://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/ipcc/ar5/ipcc_ar5_wg1_spm_jpn.pdf

11) IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: WORKING GROUP CONTRIBUTION TO THE FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE p.1250 2013 http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

12) 8 , 2013 http://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/GWP/Vol8/pdf/all.pdf

13) , 2014 http://www.env.go.jp/press/19034.html

14) SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios IPCC 2000

A1B

212100 700ppm

15) RCP Representative Concentration Pathways

IPCC 5RCP

2100 RCP8.52100 RCP2.6

2100 RCP6.0 RCP4.54

- 7 -

RCP2.6 10.3% RCP8.5 25.5%13)

RCP2.6 1.1 RCP8.5 10.7

RCP2.66cm RCP8.5 34cm 13)

IPCC 5 1986 2005

1

8 16)

SRES A1B1.1 1.3

1.8 4.4 5)

17)

80cm 64

16) IPCC 5 2

, 2014 http://www.env.go.jp/earth/ipcc/5th/pdf/ar5_wg2_spmj.pdf

17)

2012 , 2013 http://www.env.go.jp/earth/ondanka/rep130412/report_full.pdf

- 8 -

18)

400mm18)

17)

27 37)

18) , 2011

- 9 -

3

2001 1/1,25015,000m3/s 16,000m3/s 19) 2015

350m

18,000m3/s 20)

1/200 200621) 20%

2011 22) 70%

205023) 1/100

60cm24)

IPCC 5

19) 1993 16,000m3/s 15,000m3/s 1993 1995

16,000m3/s 20) KNMI 06

17,000~22,000m3/s18,000m3/s

21) UKCIP02 (1961 1990 )2050 2080 1/20

22) UKCP09 (1961 1990 )2020 2050 2080 1/50 3

23) KLIWA

1971 2000 2021 2050 24) IPCC 4 1980 1999 2090 2099

0.18 0.59m

- 10 -

3 25)

EU2007

1/10

1/100 1/10 1/5001/1,000 1/10,000

1/100

1/10,000 1/30 1/30

1/100 1/100 1/1,0001/1,000

1/101/30 1/100 1/200

1/1,000

1/100

1/3001/100 1.5

1/1,000 1/2 1/1,000 17

1/100 1/500

1/100 1/200

25) NRC

3 100 2.7m1.5m 1.1m IPCC 5

- 11 -

1/1,0001/100 1/1,000

1/100

1/100 191020cm

1977 119881/500

1/100

2015 113690

2feet 3feet1/500 FFRMS

Federal Flood Risk Management Standard

21 23

1

2013

- 12 -

22 26) 9 27) 198100 20

17300

2009 Water Forever

50 2030 20% 206040%

2060 3.65 m3 /2060

23

12090

100 301

10 1

5 1 1987 6

19912014 2012

1500 5

26) 22 12 CAT Governor’s Climate Action Team

5 35

27) 3

3

- 13 -

OECD OECD 22 5

25 4 National Adaptation Planning LESSONS FROM OECD COUNTRIES

- 14 -

4 4.1

1,700mm 28) 1/2

50mm

12

1

2

12

28)

8,000m3/ 3,400m3/

- 15 -

1/100 1/2001/5

1/101/100

1/30 1/406

101

7

20 4068 93

- 16 -

4.2

1.8 4.4 5)

- 17 -

5

- 18 -

5 5.1

- 19 -

- 20 -

1/100 1/200

1/1,000

- 21 -

29) 30)

29) 53 287 5 10 6 61 30) 6 123 5 61

213 5.5 207

- 22 -

5.2 5.2.1

ICT

CCTV

- 23 -

- 24 -

100mm/h

5.2.2

1

- 25 -

ICT

CCTV

- 26 -

- 27 -

2

- 28 -

- 29 -

- 30 -

3

- 31 -

2

2

ICT

- 32 -

ISO2232431

31) ISO22324 Societal security -- Emergency management -- Guidelines for colour-coded alerts

http://www.iso.org/iso/catalogue_detail.htm?csnumber=50061

- 33 -

TEC-FORCE Technical Emergency Control FORCE

- 34 -

BCP

BCP Business Continuity Plan

- 35 -

5.3

1,000mm

- 36 -

2

- 37 -

UAV Unmanned Aerial

Vehicle

- 38 -

- 39 -

5.4

5.4.1

- 40 -

8 1

5.4.2

- 41 -

- 42 -

5.5 5.5.1

UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

5.5.2

TEC-FORCE Technical Emergency Control FORCE

5.5.3

- 43 -

5.5.4

- 44 -

- 45 -

6

- 46 -

- 47 -

21

12

11

11

- 48 -

25 12 11

12 13

26 1 20 11

3 18 12

20 6

4 18 13

20 6

5 19 50

6 30 14

7 28 15

9 22 16

26

11 28 17

12 24 18

27 1 30 19

2 13 20

2 27

- 49 -

5 28 52

6 2 21

6 3 7 2

7 23 22