education, employment, inequality and artificial...
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EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
NOVEMBER 1, 2017
Thomas Bailey Director, Community College Research Center Global HR Forum 2017 Seoul, Korea
Education, Employment, Inequality and Artificial Intelligence
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
§ Questions: – How extensive and what is the nature of this loss? – How can government adopt appropriate systems and policies that
can solve the job reduction problem?
§ My focus: – What can higher education do to help address potential
employment problems for students from low income backgrounds?
Future of Jobs predicts a loss of 5 million jobs due to robots and artificial intelligence
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
§ “With regard to labor productivity itself… the United States is in one of its slowest-growth periods since the end of WWII” (Sprague, 2016)
§ The decline in labor productivity is substantial: from 2007 to 2016, the growth in labor productivity, output and hours worked was less than half as fast as the average postwar economic cycle
§ This finding of declining productivity is widely supported (e.g., Gordon, 2015; Syverson, 2017; Autor, 2015; Autor & Salomons, 2017)
§ It is not measurement error: the decline is too large to be explained by a shift from manufacturing (where productivity is easier to measure) to services (where it is harder to measure); and measurement error would have to have grown over time
Labor Productivity is Low
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
90
100
110
120
130
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Trend 2001-2007
Trend 1947-2007
Actual Productivity 2007-2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Jan. 2017)
Labor Productivity Trends Index = 100 at start of business cycle
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
0 0.5
1 1.5
2 2.5
3 3.5
4
Source: https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-6/below-trend-the-us-productivity- slowdown-since-the-great-recession.htm#_edn3
Annual U.S. Productivity Growth Rate
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
But There are Problems: Labor Force Participation is Dropping
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
55
65
75
85
1992 2000 2008 2017
BA Degree
HS Graduate
AA (Some College)
Forces causing decline in participation
Robots
Gig economy
Educational Inequality
Baby boomers
Wealth inequality
Anti-work tax code
Offshoring
China/Mexico
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Education alone cannot solve the problem of adjustment to technological change or growing inequality, but it can play an important role if it too can make fundamental changes.
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Personal Earnings (2016 dollars)
Source: Merged March CPS files
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
§ Value of an Associates Degree Compared to High School Degree – Average 13% for Males – Average 20% for Females – But differs by field (Associate of Arts or General Studies mainly
valuable for transfer) § Benefits to Society Exceed Costs
– Economic Growth – Health – Welfare Receipt – Reduced Crime
Community Colleges are a good investment for students and society
0 5
10
15
Per
cent
of S
tude
nts
0 20 40 60 80 100 Parent Rank
Note: “Ivy Plus” = Ivy League, Chicago, Stanford, MIT, Duke
Parent Income Distribution by Percentile Ivy Plus Colleges
Source: The Equality of Opportunity Project--http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/documents/
14.5% of students from top 1%
0 5
10
15
Per
cent
of S
tude
nts
0 20 40 60 80 100 Parent Rank
Note: “Ivy Plus” = Ivy League, Chicago, Stanford, MIT, Duke
Parent Income Distribution by Percentile Ivy Plus Colleges
Source: The Equality of Opportunity Project--http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/documents/
14.5% of students from top 1%
0 5
10
15
Per
cent
of S
tude
nts
0 20 40 60 80 100 Parent Rank
Parent Income Distribution by Percentile Ivy Plus Colleges
13.5% of students from bottom 50%
Source: The Equality of Opportunity Project--http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/documents/
14.5% of students from top 1%
0 5
10
15
Per
cent
of S
tude
nts
0 20 40 60 80 100 Parent Rank
Parent Income Distribution by Percentile Ivy Plus Colleges
13.5% of students from bottom 50%
More students from the top 1% than the bottom 50%
Source: The Equality of Opportunity Project--http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/documents/
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
0 20
40
60
80
P
erce
nt o
f Stu
dent
s
1 2 3 4 5 Parent Income Quintile
Harvard University UC Berkeley SUNY-Stony Brook Glendale Community College
Parent Income Distributions by Quintile for 1980-82 Birth Cohorts At Selected Colleges
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
18% 21% 24% 24% 27% 33% 37%
15% 16%
16% 15% 19%
21% 22%
16% 17% 13% 14%
16%
16% 15%
21% 23% 21% 21%
20%
18% 16% 30%
22% 25% 26% 19%
11% 9%
Private Research Sector
Private Master's Sector Private Baccalaureate Sector
Public Research Sector
Public Master's Sector Public Baccalaureate Sector
Public Community College Sector
Bottom SES Fourth SES Quintlie Third SES Quintlie Second SES Quintile Top SES Quintile
Socioeconomic distribution at colleges by institutional type, 2011-12
CCRC Analysis using National Postsecondary Student Aid Study: 2012 Undergraduates (PowerStats); Income Quintile is based on 2012 household income as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/ (Table H-1). Both dependent and independent students are combined.
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Total operating and education & related expenditures per FTE student (i.e., excluding sponsored research & auxiliary enterprise), FY 2013
Desrochers, D. M., & Hurlburt, S. (2016). Trends in College Spending 2003–2013 (Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research), figure A3, 24–27. Data Shown in 2013 Dollars.
$71,597
$22,662
$29,479
$39,793
$19,310 $20,352 $14,090
$37,812
$18,782 $23,138
$17,252 $13,356 $14,044
$10,804
Private Research
Sector
Private Master's Sector
Private Bachelor's
Sector
Public Research
Sector
Public Master's Sector
Public Bachelor's
Sector
Public Community
College Sector
Total Operating Education & Related
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Changes in total operating spending per student over time, AY 2003–2013
Desrochers, D. M., & Hurlburt, S. (2013). Trends in College Spending 2003–2013 (Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research), figure A3, 24–27. Data Shown in 2013 Dollars.
$8,667
$1,581 $971
$5,413
$1,677 $1,602 $1,044
$4,968
$2,070 $1,745 $1,828
$1,004 $1,105 $447
Private Research
Sector
Private Master's Sector
Private Bachelor's
Sector
Public Research
Sector
Public Master's Sector
Public Bachelor's
Sector
Public Community
College Sector
Total Operating Education & Related
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Only about a third of community college students earn a degree in 6 years
36%
20%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Earned a degree at any institution Still enrolled at an institution Not enrolled
Shapiro et al. (2014). Completing College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates. National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
§ Specific or vocational education (high completion and early employment) § General education (lower completion but better adaptability and long term earnings growth
Two Approaches
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
$2,500
$3,500
$4,500
$5,500
$6,500
$7,500
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Certificate
College Non-completer
Years Since College Entry
Associate Degree
Quarterly Earnings
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Earnings from Vocational Education Attenuate in the Long Run
General Education, Vocational Education, and Labor-Market Outcomes over the Life-Cycle
Eric A. Hanushek, et. al.
Journal of Human Resources 2017 52(1): 49-88
“With rapid technological change, gains in youth employment from vocational education may be offset by less adaptability and thus diminished employment later in life…. Using micro data for 18 countries from the International Adult Literacy Survey, we find strong support for the existence of such a trade-off.”
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
Percent of all Job Ads Requiring Skill
Cognitive 37% Social 36% Cognitive and social 25%
Source: Deming and Kahn (2017)
Employers Want Both Cognitive and Social Skills
Scale of Skills Demand in 2020
Cognitive Abilities 15% Systems Skills 17% Complex Problem Solving 36% Content Skills 10% Process Skills 18% Social Skills 19% Resource Management Skills 13% Technical Skills 12% Physical Abilities 4%
Source: Future of Jobs Survey, World Economic Forum.
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
§ written and oral communication § teamwork skills § ethical decision making § critical thinking § ability to apply knowledge in real-world settings
Employer Priorities
Source: Hart Research Associates. 2015. Falling Short? College Learning and Career Success. Washington, DC: Association of American Colleges and Universities.
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
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Educational experiences that teach them how to solve problems with people whose views are different from their own
Employers are in agreement with a broad set of college learning goals that extend beyond workplace preparation.
26%
32%
27%
41%
43%
57%
Strongly agree with this statement about the aims of college learning Somewhat agree
91%
86%
87%
82%
78%
80%
Ethical issues and public debates important in their field
Direct learning experiences working with others to solve problems important in their communities
Courses that build knowledge, judgment, commitment to communities, ensure integrity/vitality of democracy
Acquire broad knowledge in liberal arts and sciences
Learn about societies and cultures outside the U.S. and global issues and developments
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
§ Funding § Completion § Content § Program design
Solutions
EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, INEQUALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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COMMUNITY COLLEGE RESEARCH CENTER
NOVEMBER 1, 2017
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