education and the contemporary ‘baby boom’: evidence from the northern ireland longitudinal...
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Education and the contemporary ‘baby boom’: Evidence from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study. Patrick McGregor Patricia McKee. “Predicting Short Run Changes in Fertility in Northern Ireland”. a project funded by. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The data
Education and the contemporary ‘baby boom’: Evidence from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal
Study
Patrick McGregor Patricia McKee
“Predicting Short Run Changes in Fertility in Northern Ireland”
a project funded by
The authors are grateful to the NILS team at NISRA for their assistance
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2
Education and the contemporary ‘baby boom’: Evidence from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study
• Overview• Education and fertility• The NILS• The data• The statistical model• Results• Conclusion
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Overview 3
A baby-boom fuelled by rising fertility rates and immigration has pushed the population of the United Kingdom to more than 61 million for the first time.
The Times, 28 August 2009
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The data 4
Total Births
Age Specific Fertility Rates
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
year
birt
hs r
egis
tere
d
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Ag
e-s
pe
cific
fert
ility
ra
te
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44
Fertility in Northern Ireland
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Education and fertility 5
Education and fertility
Static economic analysis
Max ST
Children assumed to be normal ‘goods’ so: but possibly or possibly not!
The home production framework allows the cost of children to be expressed as a function of the parents’ wages and their respective shares in the costs of producing child quality
sqnUU ,,sc snqI
0 qn 0n
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Education and fertility 6
Dynamic economic analysis The ‘user cost’ of a child now is a function of a
sequence of prices such as the female wage rate
The optimal profile of a woman’s stock of human capital will be jointly determined with the timing of the births of her children.
Any empirical analysis should permit the demographic profile to vary with educational attainment
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The NILS 7
The NILS
• The NILS potential mothers: those women with health card registrations, aged 16-44 years and whose DOB is one of the 104 in the systematic sample
• Registrations downloaded biannually and constitute potential panel members
• Details of any birth to a NILS mother are forwarded by the GRO to the NILS
• 2001 Census: An attempt is made to link the Census details of all NILS mothers
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The NILS 8
Population on Census Day, 2001
Total Population
Census 1,685,267 (4.84% Imputed)
BSO 1,768,473 (4.94% list inflation)
Women in NILS aged 16-44 years
Census 101,034 ( Census x 104/365.25)
BSO 107,874
list inflation 6,840 (6.3%)
Expected imputed census records 4,890 (101,034 x 0.0484)
Fertility Panel with census records 93,601
BSO – FP 14,273
Mismatch = 14,273 – 6,840 – 4,890 = 2,543
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The data 9
Year N % pattern01 5083 3.5 100000001-02 5167 3.6 110000001-03 5771 4.0 111000001-04 4523 3.1 111100001-05 4804 3.3 111110001-06 4451 3.1 111111001-07 76878 53.0 111111102-07 4416 3.1 011111103-07 4353 3.0 001111104-07 4649 3.2 000111105-07 5067 3.5 000011106-07 5796 4.0 0000011 07 6504 4.5 0000001
Presence of women in the Fertility Panel:the effect of Age
born 1957 1977 1978 1991age 2001 44 24 23 10age 2007 50 30 29 16
The fertility panel essentially is the 1957 – 77 cohort and ignores the 1978 – 91 cohort due to the absence of educational information
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The data 10
Sources of Information available for the NILS
Fertility Panel
101
Census 91
4,653
7,019
Census 01
GRO
BSO
61,263
24,041
32,960
530
26,710
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The data 11
Sources of Parity in the Fertility Panel
Parity from Freq. PercentCensus - offspring 116,327 74.0GRO births 10,141 6.591 census 6,432 4.1Count births 97-01 178 0.1Census + n of births 158 0.1Missing 24,041 15.3
Total Women 157,277 100.0
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The data 12
Educational Qualifications
• Level 0
• Level 1
• Level 2
• Level 3
• Level 4
• Level 5
No qualifications
GCSE grade D-G; 1-4 CSEs grade 1;
1-4 ‘O’ level passes; NVQ level 1
5+ CSEs grade 1; 5+ GCSEs grade A-C;
5+ ‘O’ level passes; NVQ level 2
2+ ‘A’ levels; 4+ AS levels;
NVQ level 3 or GNVQ Advanced
First degree; NVQ level 4; HNC ; HND
Higher degree; NVQ level 5
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The data 13
2325
20
10
22
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
no quals level 1 level 2 level 3 level 4/5
Education level
Pro
port
ion
of s
ampl
e
The Distribution of Educational Attainment
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The data 14Source: 2001 Census
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
year
pro
po
rtio
n
none lev 1 lev 2 lev 3 uni deg
Distribution of Educational Attainment by Year that Woman was aged 24
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The data 15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Gro
ss
We
ek
ly p
ay
(£
)
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
Act
ivit
y R
ate
Q1 median Q3 Activity Rate
Women in the Labour Market
Source: DETINI
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The data 16
First Birth
22
25
28
31
34
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
mea
n a
ge
of
mo
ther
no quals level 1
Third Birth
22
25
28
31
34
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Yearm
ean
ag
e o
f m
oth
erlevel 4/5
Second birth
22
25
28
31
34
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
mea
n a
ge
of
mo
ther
level 2 level 3
Mean Age of Mother at Time of Birth
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The Statistical Model 17
The Statistical Model
• Raftery, AE, Lewis, SM and Aghajanian, A (1995).• Demand or Ideation? Evidence from the Iranian
Marital Fertility Decline, Demography, vol. 32.• Data: 1977 Iran Fertility Survey• “ each woman-year of exposure is treated as a
separate case” • Five clocks:
– Age Period Cohort Parity Duration
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The Statistical Model 18
The Logit Model
iiiii
iiiiii
XEDUCATIONECONOMIC
TIMENSINTERACTIODURATIONPARITYAGEB
/
76
54321*
0*0
0*1
ii
ii
BifB
BifB
EDUCATION includes interactions with PARITY, DURATION and TIME so demographic profile can vary with educational attainment
TIME captures the change in quantum for women aged > 23
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Results 19
Demographic
age 237.053age2 -309.685age3 182.198age4 -41.369
par1 2.078par2 2.595par3 2.161pargt3 0.899
dur1 -3.974dur2 -2.483dur3 -1.661dur4 -1.783dur5 -1.540
Demographic interactions
agepar1 -1.420agepar2 -2.663agepar3 -2.441agepargt3 -1.341
agedur1 3.512agedur2 3.162agedur3 2.442agedur4 2.283agedur5 1.927
Education level01constant 0.651quality -2.003timetrend -0.173quality*tt 0.343
Demographic par0 -0.384par1 -0.386par2 -0.178par3 -0.096
dur1 0.046dur2 -0.234dur3 -0.195dur4 -0.091dur5 -0.140durgt5 -0.03
Logit Regression Results Education level 45constant 1.438quality -5.470timetrend -0.145quality*tt 0.702
interactionspar0 -0.010par1 0.258par2 0.238par3 0.094
dur1 0.138dur2 0.484dur3 0.468dur4 0.557dur5 0.394durgt5 0.394
Timeyr2002 -0.457yr2004 -0.427yr2005 -1.473yr2006 -0.111timetrend 0.667
Economicfwage-1 -1.423factivityrate-1 -0.971Interest-1 0.244
Othercatholic 0.169constant -2.758
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Results 20
Demographic
age 237.053age2 -309.685age3 182.198age4 -41.369
par1 2.078par2 2.595par3 2.161pargt3 0.899
dur1 -3.974dur2 -2.483dur3 -1.661dur4 -1.783dur5 -1.540
Demographic interactions
agepar1 -1.420agepar2 -2.663agepar3 -2.441agepargt3 -1.341
agedur1 3.512agedur2 3.162agedur3 2.442agedur4 2.283agedur5 1.927
Education level01constant 0.651quality -2.003timetrend -0.173quality*tt 0.343
Demographic par0 -0.384par1 -0.386par2 -0.178par3 -0.096
dur1 0.046dur2 -0.234dur3 -0.195dur4 -0.091dur5 -0.140durgt5 -0.03
Logit Regression Results Education level 45constant 1.438quality -5.470timetrend -0.145quality*tt 0.702
interactionspar0 -0.010par1 0.258par2 0.238par3 0.094
dur1 0.138dur2 0.484dur3 0.468dur4 0.557dur5 0.394durgt5 0.394
Timeyr2002 -0.457yr2004 -0.427yr2005 -1.473yr2006 -0.111timetrend 0.667
Economicfwage-1 -1.423factivityrate-1 -0.971Interest-1 0.244
Othercatholic 0.169constant -2.758
The demographic profile of the base educational category is well determined with parity=0 and durgt5 base
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Results 21
Work and childbearing tend to be separate rather than combined activities; wage rate not significant although divided by quartiles; interest rate?
Demographic
age 237.053age2 -309.685age3 182.198age4 -41.369
par1 2.078par2 2.595par3 2.161pargt3 0.899
dur1 -3.974dur2 -2.483dur3 -1.661dur4 -1.783dur5 -1.540
Demographic interactions
agepar1 -1.420agepar2 -2.663agepar3 -2.441agepargt3 -1.341
agedur1 3.512agedur2 3.162agedur3 2.442agedur4 2.283agedur5 1.927
Education level01constant 0.651quality -2.003timetrend -0.173quality*tt 0.343
Demographic par0 -0.384par1 -0.386par2 -0.178par3 -0.096
dur1 0.046dur2 -0.234dur3 -0.195dur4 -0.091dur5 -0.140durgt5 -0.03
Logit Regression Results Education level 45constant 1.438quality -5.470timetrend -0.145quality*tt 0.702
interactionspar0 -0.010par1 0.258par2 0.238par3 0.094
dur1 0.138dur2 0.484dur3 0.468dur4 0.557dur5 0.394durgt5 0.394
Timeyr2002 -0.457yr2004 -0.427yr2005 -1.473yr2006 -0.111timetrend 0.667
Economicfwage-1 -1.423factivityrate-1 -0.971Interest-1 0.244
Othercatholic 0.169constant -2.758
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Results 22
Timeyr2002 -0.457yr2004 -0.427yr2005 -1.473yr2006 -0.111timetrend 0.667
Economicfwage-1 -1.423factivityrate-1 -0.971Interest-1 0.244
Othercatholic 0.169constant -2.758
There is a fluctuating increase in the quantum of those 24 and over
Demographic
age 237.053age2 -309.685age3 182.198age4 -41.369
par1 2.078par2 2.595par3 2.161pargt3 0.899
dur1 -3.974dur2 -2.483dur3 -1.661dur4 -1.783dur5 -1.540
Demographic interactions
agepar1 -1.420agepar2 -2.663agepar3 -2.441agepargt3 -1.341
agedur1 3.512agedur2 3.162agedur3 2.442agedur4 2.283agedur5 1.927
Education level01constant 0.651quality -2.003timetrend -0.173quality*tt 0.343
Demographic par0 -0.384par1 -0.386par2 -0.178par3 -0.096
dur1 0.046dur2 -0.234dur3 -0.195dur4 -0.091dur5 -0.140durgt5 -0.03
Logit Regression Results Education level 45constant 1.438quality -5.470timetrend -0.145quality*tt 0.702
interactionspar0 -0.010par1 0.258par2 0.238par3 0.094
dur1 0.138dur2 0.484dur3 0.468dur4 0.557dur5 0.394durgt5 0.394
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Results 23
Timeyr2002 -0.457yr2004 -0.427yr2005 -1.473yr2006 -0.111timetrend 0.667
Economicfwage-1 -1.423factivityrate-1 -0.971Interest-1 0.244
Othercatholic 0.169constant -2.758
For those from Northern Ireland
Demographic
age 237.053age2 -309.685age3 182.198age4 -41.369
par1 2.078par2 2.595par3 2.161pargt3 0.899
dur1 -3.974dur2 -2.483dur3 -1.661dur4 -1.783dur5 -1.540
Demographic interactions
agepar1 -1.420agepar2 -2.663agepar3 -2.441agepargt3 -1.341
agedur1 3.512agedur2 3.162agedur3 2.442agedur4 2.283agedur5 1.927
Education level01constant 0.651quality -2.003timetrend -0.173quality*tt 0.343
Demographic par0 -0.384par1 -0.386par2 -0.178par3 -0.096
dur1 0.046dur2 -0.234dur3 -0.195dur4 -0.091dur5 -0.140durgt5 -0.03
Logit Regression Results Education level 45constant 1.438quality -5.470timetrend -0.145quality*tt 0.702
interactionspar0 -0.010par1 0.258par2 0.238par3 0.094
dur1 0.138dur2 0.484dur3 0.468dur4 0.557dur5 0.394durgt5 0.394
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Results 24
Timeyr2002 -0.457yr2004 -0.427yr2005 -1.473yr2006 -0.111timetrend 0.667
Economicfwage-1 -1.423factivityrate-1 -0.971Interest-1 0.244
Othercatholic 0.169constant -2.758
The differential quantum effect of education for those aged >23 in the 1957 – 77 cohort
Demographic
age 237.053age2 -309.685age3 182.198age4 -41.369
par1 2.078par2 2.595par3 2.161pargt3 0.899
dur1 -3.974dur2 -2.483dur3 -1.661dur4 -1.783dur5 -1.540
Demographic interactions
agepar1 -1.420agepar2 -2.663agepar3 -2.441agepargt3 -1.341
agedur1 3.512agedur2 3.162agedur3 2.442agedur4 2.283agedur5 1.927
Education level01constant 0.651quality -2.003timetrend -0.173quality*tt 0.343
Demographic par0 -0.384par1 -0.386par2 -0.178par3 -0.096
dur1 0.046dur2 -0.234dur3 -0.195dur4 -0.091dur5 -0.140durgt5 -0.03
Logit Regression Results Education level 45constant 1.438quality -5.470timetrend -0.145quality*tt 0.702
interactionspar0 -0.010par1 0.258par2 0.238par3 0.094
dur1 0.138dur2 0.484dur3 0.468dur4 0.557dur5 0.394durgt5 0.394
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Results 25
Education level01constant 0.651quality -2.003timetrend -0.173quality*tt 0.343
Demographic par0 -0.384par1 -0.386par2 -0.178par3 -0.096
dur1 0.046dur2 -0.234dur3 -0.195dur4 -0.091dur5 -0.140durgt5 -0.03
Timeyr2002 -0.457yr2004 -0.427yr2005 -1.473yr2006 -0.111timetrend 0.667
Economicfwage-1 -1.423factivityrate-1 -0.971Interest-1 0.244
Othercatholic 0.169constant -2.758
The differential tempo effect of education for those aged >23 in the 1957 – 77 cohort
Demographic
age 237.053age2 -309.685age3 182.198age4 -41.369
par1 2.078par2 2.595par3 2.161pargt3 0.899
dur1 -3.974dur2 -2.483dur3 -1.661dur4 -1.783dur5 -1.540
Demographic interactions
agepar1 -1.420agepar2 -2.663agepar3 -2.441agepargt3 -1.341
agedur1 3.512agedur2 3.162agedur3 2.442agedur4 2.283agedur5 1.927
Logit Regression Results Education level 45constant 1.438quality -5.470timetrend -0.145quality*tt 0.702
interactionspar0 -0.010par1 0.258par2 0.238par3 0.094
dur1 0.138dur2 0.484dur3 0.468dur4 0.557dur5 0.394durgt5 0.394
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Results 26
Marginal Effects
0,1ˆ1,1ˆ, educXBPeducXBPME iiiiieduc
Where is the vector of values of all the explanatory variables except for educ
iX
For ith woman:
Educational variables are ordered:
noqual base degree
% sample 48 30 22
The marginal effect is taken as the mean of individual marginal effects over the particular category and the base
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The data 27
Parity 0 1 2 3 mean par at 24No quals 0.043 0.084 0.039 0.033 0.98others 0.066 0.132 0.049 0.037 0.51Degree 0.069 0.193 0.073 0.050 0.10
Table: Probability of Birth 2001-7
Marginal Effect of Education
No qualifications
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
Age
Mar
gin
al e
ffec
t
Degrees
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
Age
Mar
gin
al e
ffec
t
par=0 tt only
par=1 tt only
par=2 tt only
par=0 + dem
par=1 + dem
par=2 + dem
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Results 28
Conclusions
• The total marginal effect of educational attainment , including both quantum and tempo effects, is almost always positive
• It peaks at 0.16 for women aged 33 with parity = 1 for the degree case; for parity = 0 the marginal effect is about one third of this
• In the degree case the quantum effects are negative up to age 28 possibly reflecting the decline in degree ‘quality’
• For the poorly qualified the pattern is similar, except that the peak for parity = 1 is earlier, at 30 and smaller, at 0.11
• For most ages, the marginal effect is greater for parity 2 than 0
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Results 29
parity = 0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
age
%
noqual
middle
degree
parity = 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
age
%
noqual
middle
degree
parity = 2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
age
%
noqual
middle
degree
parity = 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
age
%
noqual
middle
degree
Parity Proportions by Age and Education
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The data 30
Births and Birth Events
N of births Freq. Percent
0 371,113 84.521 66,944 15.252 995 0.23
3+ 24 0.01
Total 439,076 100
In the analysis birth events rather than births per se are examined