Editor's Welcome

Summer is nearly here, I think, and we have a great season of flat racing to look forward

to and the Euro 2016 tournament.

Hopefully both will turn a profit for us.

At the races we have help from top trends tipster Dr Nick Hardman who has had a look

at trainers who excel in Nurseries.

Although you may think 2yo races are a risky proposition and maiden races

undoubtedly are.

However 2yo handicaps (Nurseries) are a different prospect. With all runners either

having a win or three runs to get their handicap mark there is form to aid analysis.

There are also trainers who excel with these types and Nick has focused on those

trainers that can help us profit this year.

On the European Championships front we have recruited top sports betting expert

James Pacheco to analysis the current form of the top contenders and he has

recommended some bets that will give us an ongoing interest and hopefully some profit.

This month’s interview is with Steve Trow who has impressed us with the amount of

profit he makes from bookie offers including some clever strategies for casino bonuses.

If that wasn't enough we also have a tipster profile (Daniel Winterton) a review of one

of the best horses to ever run on the flat, our regular arbitrage column as well as product

reviews and the tipster table.

I hope you enjoy this month’s issue.

Darren Power

Nurseries – Trainers To Follow In 2yo Handicap Races

Understandably, betting on 2yo races can be somewhat of a guessing game. After all,

these horses are young and fresh and you do not really know how good they are until

long after the race has finished. I for one do not see 2yo maiden races as a particularly

attractive betting proposition. The betting public tend to go with 2yo runners from top

stables and let market expectations dictate their true chances. That is risky. However,

2yo handicap races are a different kettle of fish.

To qualify for a handicap rating a horse needs to have won a race or, if still a maiden,

have run a minimum of three times. That means we at least have some form to go on

and some evidence of a horses ability. In this month’s article we take a look at the

trainers whose nursery runners can be profitable to follow under the right conditions.

First of all we can take a look at the trainer table for 2yo nursery runners since 2010,

including those run at all-weather (AW) tracks. We could go back further but it is recent

form that concerns us most. Trainers’ fortunes can fluctuate and the success of the yard

will, in some respect, influence owners in where they place their horses.

A trainer who does well with their juveniles is more likely to attract the support from

the wealthier owners who want to place their horses in yards renowned at training and

placing these youngsters.

Trainers themselves are particularly shrewd creatures and some are adept at pitching

their 2yo’s into winnable races or are adept in knowing what conditions in handicap

races can bring about the necessary improvement.

Top 2yo Handicap Trainers (2010 to 2015):

In addition to those listed above there are a whole host of other trainers who have

saddled 19 nursery winners since 2010. That list includes Tom Dascombe, Jamie

Osbourne, Brian Meehan, Stan Moore, Ralph Beckett and Sir Mark Prescott.

As you can see from the table I am not too concerned at this stage with overall profit

and loss. When conducting such an analysis I initially look at the number of overall

winners and strike rate. The higher the number of winners, the greater the chance of

unearthing a set of conditions that produces enough runners first past the post to warrant

consideration. Strike rate is important as this can give you a good idea of the length of

the typical losing runs you can expect if you choose to follow one particular trainer.

Only the most patient of punters can handle long losing sequences. Most simply give up

even if the system you are following has proved profitable in a number of consecutive

years.

Let us start by taking a look at those trainers that have the worst profit and loss figures

from our table. Often in betting it can be just as much about what not to bet on as it is

what to bet on. We will start with Mark Johnston. Clearly, backing his nursery runners

blindly would have resulted in huge losses over the last few years but is he one to avoid

or are there some profitable angles within those overall figures?

Looking at the performance of his nursery runners across a variety of race distances and

across a variety of different race classes paints a painful picture for punters. Only 12 of

his 60 winners were sent off at odds of greater than 4/1 so if you do fancy one of his

runners then the market should be quite informative.

That said, you would still be hard pushed to make a profit on these as they still show an

overall loss, albeit not to the same extent as those sent off at bigger prices.

Personally, I would not look to back any of Mark Johnston’s runners in nursery races.

The other trainer who shows a large level stakes loss is Mick Channon. However,

twenty of his forty-nine winners (about 40% of the total winners) have come in races

over 6f or 6 ½f and these runners show a profit of £7.68 at SP. That may be something

to keep an eye on but given the overall low strike rate of the yard’s nursery runners I

would not advise backing them just yet.

Similar to Mick Channon, the Tim Easterby nursery runners show a big level stakes loss

but perform best over 6f and 6 ½f. These horses have a record of 16 wins from 133

runners and show a level stakes profit of £12.63 at SP. That is still only a strike rate of

12% which is around 1 winner for every 12 runners so you would need a lot of patience

and be happy to see out any long losing runs that would inevitably occur.

Other trainers on the cold list include Tom Dascombe who has sent out 213 nursery

runners since 2010 and managed just 19 winners. That is a very poor 8.92% strike rate

and you would have incurred losses of £119.88. David Evans also goes on the cold list

with a strike rate of just 7.75% from a whopping 413 nursery runners. True, they show

just a tiny loss to SP but that low strike rate means lengthy losing runs which is not

good for the betting bank and not good for you confidence.

In short my advice would be to avoid the Mark Johnston, Mick Channon, Tim Easterby,

Tom Dascombe and David Evans runners in 2yo nursery races given their overall low

strike rate and large level stakes losses.

The Cold List – Trainers to avoid in nursery races:

Mick Channon, Tim Easterby, Mark Johnston, David Evans and Tom Dascombe.

Now we have that out of the way we can start to dig deeper into the statistics of those

trainers that will be much more profitable to follow. Top of the table sits Richard Fahey.

Not only does he come out top in terms of the number of winners since 2010 and in

terms of the overall profit and loss, his runners have excelled in the last three seasons:

Richard Fahey Nursery Runners 2013 to 2015

In the last three years his 2yo handicappers have a record of 52 winners from 299

runners at a strike rate of 17% and show an overall profit of £87.89. At Betfair SP that

profit is £148.86 which tells a story in itself. I will not go into any detail around the

advantages of Betfair SP over traditional bookmakers SP as I think those figures alone

tell you all you need to know. We can also improve on those figures if we concentrate

on flat turf racing only.

Richard Fahey has only saddled three AW nursery winners in the last four AW seasons,

including a record of just 1-20 in the 2015/2016 AW season that has just finished.

Looking at those turf runners we can see that you only need to back them under any

conditions in the last few seasons to have made a healthy return on investment. This

time I will add in a column for Betfair SP to further push that point home:

Richard Fahey Nursery Runners (Turf Only)

Next up is Richard Hannon Jr. His nursery runners show an overall loss of £15.43 but

with 41 winners at a strike rate of 16% he is worth exploring a little further, especially

as those runners show a £12 profit at Betfair SP. Looking at his runners over different

race distances we find that his 7f horses have the lowest strike rate (11%) and show a

loss of £37.82, followed by his 5f sprinters (16% strike rate) who show a loss of £15.24.

However, his nursery runners over 1m have a 20% strike rate and his 6f sprinters have a

17% strike rate.

Combining these two race distances gives us 22 winners from 118 runners (18.6% strike

rate) for a decent profit of £33.63. The majority of that profit has come from his milers

and when we look at the yard’s performance with 1 mile nursery runners when Richard

Hannon Sr was in charge we see that these are the ones to focus on:

Richard Hannon Yard Nursery Runners over 1 Mile (2010 – 2015)

If you are looking for a system for nursery runners then backing runners from the

Richard Hannon yard racing over a mile should give you a healthy number of winners

during the course of the season with a reasonable profit too.

Kevin Ryan is also high on our list in terms of the number of winners. One thing to note

about Kevin Ryan is that you should sit up and take note when he runs a horse in a 5f

nursery sprint. Such runners have produced 12 winners from just 48 entries since 2010.

That is an exceptional strike rate (25%) and they show a profit of £16.16 at SP.

However, 10 of those 12 winners have come in the last three years from just 22 runners

which is an incredible 45% strike rate for a profit of £36.13. You would have to be

patient as he had just eleven 5f nursery runners in 2013, eight in 2014 and three in 2015.

Kevin Ryan Nursery Runners over 5f and 5 ½f (2013 – 2015)

If you cannot wait for the Ryan runners over 5f then you can back all of this turf runners

and strike a line through the AW runners.

Those running on artificial surfaces are just 5-68 (7.35% strike rate) and show a loss of

£19.75. In comparison, his turf runners are 35-228 (15.35% strike rate) and show an

overall profit of £15.57 at bookmakers SP and a profit of £64.74 at Betfair SP. However

it may pay to stick with the sprinters on turf and you could increase the number of bets

by adding in his 6f and 6 ½f sprinters as these show a decent profit in the last four years

when combined with the 5f and 5 ½f runners:

Kevin Ryan Nursery Runners over 5f to 6 ½f on the Flat (2012 – 2015)

The last trainer I want to take a look at is Michael Bell. He does not have as many

nursery runners as a lot of our trainers in the table but he operates at a decent 20.33%

strike rate and is showing a profit of £37.02 since 2010, which increase to £59.81 at

Betfair SP. He averages around 25 runners a season in these races so you will get the

chance to back a few each month. What is most encouraging is his form in the last four

years:

Michael Bell Nursery Runners (2012 – 2015)

That record is highly consistent and although 2015 saw just 3 winners, there was a

decent yearly profit made.

Overall that leaves us with a few trainers whose runners are definitely worth noting in

nursery races. Together they make it onto the hot list:

The Hot List – Trainers to follow in nursery races:

Richard Fahey – all 2yo runners on turf.

Richard Hannon Jr – all runners in races over 1m and 1m ½f.

Kevin Ryan – all runners in turf 5f to 6 ½f sprint races.

Michael Bell – all 2yo nursery runners.

Following these four trainers should give you plenty of action and plenty of winners in

the coming season. However for On Course Profit Gold members we have looked to see

if we can improve our overall performance and more importantly our profits.

You can upgrade to On Course Profits Gold here...

http://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgrade-to-gold/

An Interview with Steve Trow of Clear Bonus Profits

1. Hi Steve, first up would you tell us a little about yourself and your background?

I grew up in Manchester and always had a natural affinity with numbers despite not

being particularly academic. Unlike most of my friends I decided against going to

university and after doing one year at college I got a job working at the university

(ironically enough). My natural aptitude for numbers became apparent and within a few

years the Uni had paid for me to go through all the accountancy qualifications and I had

unwittingly fell into being an accountant. It wasn't my dream job and although I earned

decent money and was perfectly competent at my job, I always wanted to put my skills

to better use.

I was a keen regular punter and by regular I mean a losing punter. It was after getting

stung in a William Hill shop, when they only paid me out at 3/1 on what should have

been a 25/1 return (due to some "local odds" nonsense) that I decided I wanted to find a

way of getting some money from them on a regular basis because in my mind they now

owed me!

2. When did you did you first discover the opportunities of profiting from the

bookmakers offers and bonuses and what led you to investigate these opportunities

further?

It's hard to pinpoint an exact date but somewhere around 2000. By this stage I'd been

annoyed by William Hill on the high street and was starting to search around the

internet to find out ways of taking advantage of the bookies. I found an excellent and

very detailed explanation of how the math’s worked when it came to calculating the

expected value of completing casino offers. After putting together several spreadsheets

and making a couple of deposits, I started to tentatively take advantage of welcome

bonuses and reload offers using blackjack as my main earner. It quickly became

apparent that there was lots of cash just waiting to be picked up online and that the

principles for blackjack could be applied to other disciplines quite easily.

3. If someone is interested in learning more about bookmaker bonuses and offers

where should the complete beginner start in the search for information? What

should they look for?

Well, I'm obviously going to say that they should take a look at my matched betting site

(Clear Bonus Profits). You can register for free without any card details required and

there are a couple of bookmaker welcome offers that can be completed with full

instructions that will help people make their first £35+ profits.

Money Saving Expert also has a very busy forum thread on matched betting but the

information can be quite disjointed and hard to follow if you're not used to forums.

There's a lot of dangers in the betting world online, make sure any site you're

considering parting money with to join has a real person behind it and not just a random

pen name.

4. If interested, how would a reader find further details about your one to one

courses?

My course information is listed on a specific page on my Betfair trading blog which can

be accessed by clicking here. Hopefully I've covered all the questions which people may

have on there; if not then I'm only an email away.

5. Do you think gambling has a place within modern lifestyles or do you advocate a

risk free approach such as scalping bookmakers bonus offers and incentives? Do

you regularly bet yourself and if so do you have a particular approach?

It most definitely does have a place within modern life and it's certainly hard to escape

the fact that betting is very popular in the UK. I highly recommend that people do

matched betting to generate a risk-free/low-risk income each month, perhaps at Clear

Bonus Profits :)

My advice is to get all the different disciplines of matched betting mastered and then to

consider using the profits gained to leverage extra profits from sports trading.

Matched betting is the perfect training ground for aspiring traders as it can instil a lot of

the good working practices required to be successful at trading.

6. Within the gambling industry is there anything you would like to see changed?

The bookmakers are regularly criticised for their treatment of customers. Have

either you or your clients found this to be a major issue? What are your opinions

on this? Do you think the treatment on the whole is fair or that bookmakers could

try harder, If so, how?

You've hit the nail on the head; I wish bookmakers would be a little bit kinder to

winning punters. They all claim that they welcome winning bettors but nothing could be

further from the truth. I attend a betting conference in London each February and the

culture within these companies which I've seen at these shows seems to all about

maximising their profits with the customer's welfare being secondary. It leaves a sour

taste in my mouth each year but it's an intriguing event to attend. Everybody at some

point will suffer a restriction on a betting account, but thankfully there's more than one

way to skin this particular cat and myself and my subscribers still make money from the

bookies each month thanks to some solid basic math’s.

7. Do you have any advice for the readers as to how they can minimise their risk of

getting their bookmaker accounts closed / restricted?

Absolutely, the key methods to keeping your betting accounts active on the sports side

for longer is to look like you don't know what you're doing and to not try to take

advantage too much. Some bookmakers such as Bet365 have a daily offer on the horse

racing. If you absolutely hammer into a particular offer and complete it every single day

and they're the only bets you ever place then you're making it blatantly obvious what

you're up to. Bookies can be daft, but they're not stupid.

I always recommend that people spend 30 to 60 mins per week placing regular bets on

their main bookie accounts, on horse races and big football matches, which have no

active offers on them.

Within Clear Bonus Profits we have software which scans the bookmakers and the

betting exchanges for opportunities and will spoon feed you the information about

exactly what to back, what to lay, the stakes required and how much profit you will

make. These are commonly referred to as mug bets and the software allows us to appear

like a mug whilst making a profit in the process.

I also recommend that you place accumulator bets as nothing says "Mug" quite like an

acca. Once again though, this is just another opportunity to make some money, as

thanks to acca offers and some basic maths, there are profits to be made from these too.

8. Are there particular sports which can offer better opportunities in terms of

profiting from the bookmakers?

Horse racing generates me more income than football each year, which is great as I'm

certainly not an expert at horse racing. That's the beauty of matched betting though, as

you don't need to be an expert or have knowledge of any sport, you just place the right

bets in the right order and the profits follow. Over the past few weeks, my subscribers

and I have made money from Handball, Basketball & Rugby League. I don't know

much about any of those sports but I do know the angles to make money from the

bookmakers!

The biggest mistake people make with matched betting is only attempting to complete

the sports offers. Bookies routinely dish out offers for their slot machines and I calculate

the expected value and complete offers where the offer has now altered the house edge

into a player's edge. I make around £7,000 per year through completing casino offers

which are skewed in our favour.

9. Do you have any future plans with regards to adding additional services to the

one to one courses you already run?

I've had several requests to provide trading notifications based on the football trading

strategies I teach on the day. This is something I'm giving careful consideration to, so

watch this space.

10. What interests do you have outside of your work day? What do you do to relax

and unwind?

Football, travel and hiking. I have a season ticket at the football, which isn't always the

best way to relax. Taking my dog for a long walk in the hills is my favourite way of de-

stressing and I'm always on the lookout for cheap flights and quick 1 or 2 nights breaks

abroad.

11. Do you have any personal betting or sporting highlights which can bring a

smile to you and if so what?

I enjoy downing tools for the Cheltenham Gold Cup each year as myself and around 10

mates spend the afternoon at a pub in Manchester and get merrily sozzled whilst

bemoaning our luck. It's the one day per year where I have a "gamble" rather than

looking for angles. We've done this every year for around 8 years now and it's definitely

a sporting/betting/personal highlight, if not a profitable one.

http://www.betting-school.com/ocprc

Nijinsky – Man and beast

The Russian ballet dancer and choreographer Vaslav Nijinsky died in 1950 after

proclaiming that one day he would return, as a horse.

After a long wait of 17 years a colt was born on 21st February 1967 at Windfield Farms

in Ontario, Canada. His sire was a dancer of sorts, none other than possibly the most

influential sires of the twentieth century, Northern Dancer and his dam was Flaming

Page.

Northern Dancer was the world’s leading thoroughbred sire during the period 1965-

1990 with his stud fee reaching, at the time, a record US$ 1 million

Flaming Page was a tall and leggy mare and the daughter of Bull Page and Blue

Larkspur. Bull Page came from a line which went back to Teddy, considered to be one

of the most influential sires, and her lineage line can be linked to Man O’ War.

On the racecourse Flaming Page was a beast of a horse as she won the Canadian Oaks

and The Queen’s Plate in the space of 8 days, and in the same year finished second in

the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.

The colt was called…Nijinsky.

He was a bay colt with three white socked feet and an almost perfectly shaped white

heart on his forehead. It was that heart shape on his face which endeared him to many a

racegoer.

In August 1968 trainer Vincent O’Brien, the master at Ballydoyle in Ireland had Charles

Engelhard in his stable of owners. Engelhard was an American tycoon; he owned

numerous racehorses and he had kept horses at O’Brien’s stables for a number of years.

Engelhard asked O’Brien if he would go over to Canada and visit E P Taylor’s

Windfields Farm in Ontario and take a look for a possible yearling to purchase, a colt by

a sire called Ribot.

O’Brien reportedly said “I thought, ‘My God, it’s a long way to go to see one horse! But

we’d better do it.’

When O’Brien arrived at the farm he saw the young horse he was there to view and

when he saw him he didn’t really “like him a whole lot”, but whilst there he thought he

should look at the other colts and it was here that a horse took his eye.

Vincent O’Brien suggested the horse to Charles Engelhard who visited the sales and

purchased the eye catching colt for 77,000 US$ / 84,000 CAD$, a record payment in

Canadian history. Engelhard felt confident that the horse was set for great things, and it

wasn’t long before O’Brien was training the horse at his yard in County Tipperary in

Ireland.

That horse was named by Jane Engelhard, Nijinsky, and just like the dancer he had both

a mysterious and whimsical nature.

Nijinsky’s frequent jockey, Lester Piggott once said about the horse, “He wouldn’t talk

to me. He never talked to me. Nijinsky had that far-off look in his eye from the first

time I saw him… it was like he was looking right through you.”

On arrival at Ballydoyle Nijinsky caused a problem in that he wouldn’t eat his oats.

O’Brien and his team were puzzled and worried about this as he refused to eat for a

number of days. O’Brien contacted Windfields Farm for advice and was told that the

horse had NEVER been offered oats. At the farm they had fed him “nuts” or pellets as

they are referred to in the UK, and O’Brien admitted that it had never struck him that a

horse might not have ever been offered oats. So, in an attempt to desperately get the

horse eating O’Brien asked Windfields to send over some of the “nuts” they had

referred to. On the day of their arrival…Nijinsky started eating the oats!

His training was quite a tough regime but Nijinsky proved equally tough and difficult at

times. He refused to be tacked up, to walk in single file with the other juvenile horses or

to gallop with the other horses from the yard.

In fact he was very good at trying to throw his riders and spent more time doing this

than he did learning what was expected of him. The training regime involved a walk in

the Ballydoyle training ring followed by the gallops out on the rugged land around the

stable. The gallops were run over land normally associated with fox hunting with

inclines and dips and the fast flat stretches.

Nijinsky was put through his paces but so stubborn was he that O’Brien wrote to

Engelhard and advised that Nijinsky would not be ready to start racing until later in to

his second year, if he would be ready at all.

Perseverance and patience from the stable staff and the fact that the horse was in fact

like a precocious child though meant that eventually Nijinsky was ready to race. He had

learnt what he could or should we say should and shouldn’t do.

Finally his racing career began in 1969 when he won the Erne and Railways Stakes in

Curragh, Ireland. He was already a big and powerful colt and he quickly went on then to

win Annesley Stakes and the Bereford Stakes and by the time he was two he was the

two year old champion of both England and Ireland and unbeaten in five races. But it

was 1970 which would be his year.

Nijinsky had had a perfect 2 year old campaign but O’Brien’s major concern was to

develop the horse slowly. The horse was learning what was required of him very

quickly but his first jockey, Liam Ward noted that he could be a difficult horse getting

down to the start of his races. He could be a difficult horse to handle.

He demonstrated though that he could run either from the front or off the pace and

despite his ranging size he was agile and could manoeuvre well around other horses and

certainly had the desire to win. He had a speed of acceleration that was mind blowing. If

he came through the winter as a three year old as good or better than he demonstrated as

a 2 year old his chances were excellent for the Guineas and the Derby.

Nijinsky wintered well and O’Brien didn’t work him too hard, and after a win in the

Gladness Stakes at The Curragh Nijinsky was considered ready for his biggest task to

date, it was time to face the very best of the 3 year olds in Europe and head to the 2000

Guineas.

The 2000 Guineas was to be the first jewel in Nijinsky’s Triple Crown as he won

impressively.

It looked as though the stage was set for a fairy tale.

What wasn’t known at the time was that Nijinsky appeared to suffer from a bout of

colic just over 24 hours before he was due to be run in The Derby. Due to the closeness

of the race it was impossible for the horse to receive the medication required to ease any

discomfort and no one knew for sure if he could pull himself out of whatever it was that

was troubling him in time for the race but by the evening before the race he was back to

himself again.

So to the Epsom Derby he went where he came through from behind the leaders to win

comfortably.

Things were a little quiet in terms of races after the Derby but the ultimate plan had to

be the Arc but the horse was struck with a bout of ringworm and became really ill as the

parasite took a hold of him. He lost a significant amount of his coat but with good care

he returned to form.

David McCall, Engelhard’s racing manager called O’Brien and said that the owner

would like to see his horse have a stab at the Triple Crown and see him run in the St

Leger.

Nijinsky won the race to take the St Leger Stakes and the English Triple Crown.

As yet no other horse subsequently has gone on to be a Triple Crown winner.

This win though would come at a price as Nijinsky lost 29lbs coming out of the race

and it was clear that he was not fit. O’Brien had already expressed concerns running

him in the St Leger which came just 4 weeks before the Arc, and as a “prep” race it was

a distance which was too long for Nijinsky. Piggott stated that Nijinsky had only won

the race so well as a result of the competition in the race being “ordinary”.

The preparations at Ballydoyle though continued for Nijinsky to run in the Arc in the

October of that year. The horse was to stand in the USA and winning the Arc would

undoubtedly add further value to his stud fees.

He put the weight back on he had lost after The Leger and O’Brien felt that Nijinsky

was back to fitness. He had been a calm and relaxed horse going in to The Leger and it

was felt that he had matured mentally and had now lost the anxiety he had shown pre-

race previously.

Luck this day was not on Nijinsky’s side as he drew the widest draw on the course and,

prior to the race, he was hounded and mobbed by the press which set his nerves back on

edge.

The race is one of the most prestigious, if not the most, but it is also notoriously difficult

to win. The course and the large field of runners make this a very tactical race and

Nijinsky was already at a disadvantage with his wide draw.

Piggott was advised to get the horse as far up the pack as fast as he could.

With 4 furlongs left to run Nijinsky was fourth from last and Piggott had to resort to

taking the horse on the far outside to stand any chance of gaining position. Nijinsky

came on at the leaders with gusto but the amazing turn of foot he was known for just

wasn’t there.

Taking the whip to Nijinsky for encouragement made him lunge wider still and it was

this loss of ground that could well have cost him the race. It was a photo finish with

Sassafras.

Sassafras was declared the winner.

His racing career over, Nijinsky was retired to Claiborne Farm in 1970 where he

became a sire of some notable horses including Ferdinand, Golden Fleece, and Royal

Academy.

Nijinsky lived to the age of 25 before he was put down in 1992 due to health

complications as a result of laminitis and laid to rest at Claiborne Farm equine

cemetery.

Other great horses such as Northern Dancer, Red Rum and Sea Biscuit had been seen

but in 2000 the British racing aficionados voted Nijinsky the Horse of the Millennium.

He was an outstanding racehorse, far from perfect, but no-one would ever be able to say

that he was without talent. As one of just 15 horses to date that have won the UK Triple

Crown, the 2000 Guinea’s, Epsom Derby and St Leger Stakes, he remains, and will

continue to do so, part of racings fine history.

http://www.betting-school.com/ocprt

Tipster Profile - Daniel Winterton of Racing Excellence

Daniel was first introduced to racing more than 25 years ago when two friends won

major handicap races, the Lincoln and Super Sprint, both at 33/1 and he was hooked.

He has been an owner in syndicates, so he is well aware of the costs involved in the

need to be successful, and while he didn’t make a massive fortune as an owner he did

have some amazing days out winning at the races. Winning at the best of times is a

great experience but winning as an owner is something else.

He’s also not averse to praying to the heavens for a drop of rain if necessary. One of his

favourite days out was at the 2012 Ayr Gold Cup. A week prior to the race he was in his

local pub and he wrote out “AYR GOLD CUP – CAPTAIN RAMIUS 33/1 E/W” over

ten times on betting slips and handed them out like confectionary to anyone interested.

That week everyone was praying for rain and the heavens opened for days.

Pat Smullen (a big hint) came over for the ride and they were all on. The following day

and for the rest of that week, the bookies got smashed for over £4k. Day in - day out,

people kept going into Ladbrokes with betting slips in his hand writing and the manager

and many of his staff were bemused thinking and telling punters they’d already paid out

on that slip – little did they know he had written out that slip out over ten times – even

to this day they don’t know that he organised it.

The decision to go pro came some 5 years later and determined to be professional at his

task he soon realised that he needed to keep proper records of his bets.

For the past 15 years Daniel has recorded his profit and loss, returns, the percentage

figures, and in fact all the data of his bets placed including the course, jockey and trainer

etc.…so he has a bank of data at his fingertips.

He hasn’t always been a winner though and will openly admit that though many years

have been highly profitable there have of course over the past few years been leaner

times, but as he says, “that’s gambling and they don’t all win”.

So what makes Daniel successful?

There is no doubt that he has built himself a reputation of excellence based on his

knowledge and value over the years and he has a network of “people in the know” but

he confesses that all of that is irrelevant if you don’t apply simple intelligence to your

betting.

He gave us a classic example, if he’s made aware of a “good thing” that is 6/4 or less

then he is likely to let it win and not place a bet, however if he’s sees of hears of a good

thing at 4/1 or bigger, and that good thing is on a favourable handicap mark, has

reasonable course and distance form and a credible jockey on board, and he respects the

trainer and there has been some overnight movement in the market and on the

exchanges then he is likely to have a bet or make a recommendation / tip!

Daniel is not infallible though as he openly admits. Those early days he confesses that it

was very easy to be drawn in by the short priced favourites in novice hurdles and flat

maidens, but he puts that down to simple naivety. He still looks at these types of races

but will opt for the value in the race rather than lumping on the odds on or short priced

favourites, but it is the Flat / All Weather Handicaps, Listed races and Group races

which are his forte now.

What attracts him to these types of races is that the form is there for all to see.

The market can be indicative as well as misleading, the going on the course can change

in an instant and the prices can fluctuate both positively and negatively. The draw can

be an advantage or disadvantage, jockey and trainer statistics can either enhance or

destroy your selections and the handicapper is more than capable of both helping and

hindering you, and all of this means that it is paramount that you apply a degree of

intelligence to what and where you invest your cash.

The Flat and All Weather are favoured as there are fewer obstacles in the way, although

he will bet on National Hunt racing, but his philosophy is primarily based on the

exploitation of value within the market.

He only advised win or each way and is not an advocate of laying.

The one question we ask all of the tipsters when we interview them is this, if you are so

good, why are you selling your racing tips if you can make money betting on them

yourself?

Daniel says that there is nothing better than the feeling he has when he knows that his

advice has helped other people to profit.

We have all heard and probably regularly dream of the situation where we can make a

profit from something we have a passion for, so if you can do it, then why not. In

Daniel’s case his passion is horse racing and more importantly winning.

He recounts the time when he told a guy in his local pub about two horses running that

weekend and the guy backed both of them and they won at 10/1 and 6/1. He told him

just to back them each way and to leave the double alone but the guy didn’t listen and

had singles and a double! Even to this day the guy is still thanking Daniel for paying for

his Christmas and making it a good one for his family.

Interestingly Daniel doesn’t think you have to be exceptionally talented to be successful

at betting, talent, he says, can be developed and therefore so can betting successfully. It

does take time, in some cases years of determination and practise together with

patience, persistence and perseverance, all the P’s, but more important is having the

intelligence, knowing when to play a bet and when to leave well alone.

The biggest reward to Daniel from running his own horse racing tipping service is

helping others profit in the long term and having satisfaction in his performance.

Within eight weeks of proofing his service he had generated 476 points profit which

gave a hefty return on investment of 60%. In other instances he has generated 80

points profit in one day!

He readily admits though that undoubtedly he will have losing days too.

Typically spending between 2 and 3 hours per day analysing the form, markets, going,

forecasts, statistics and trends Daniel spend most of his working hours in the evenings.

He will spend much longer though when looking at the larger meetings and particularly

the big handicaps and the weekend meetings.

This study will usually generate tips for most days, either win only or each way. These

days there are numerous meetings to assess and review particularly with the all-weather

meetings running almost every day. He doesn’t see this as a negative though but as a

positive as it means there are always opportunities to be found, but if there are no value

selections in the market then he will not advise a tip.

As a rule the tips are sent out a minimum of 2 hours before the race off time, this helps

to take into account any late information and to assess and analyse the best bets for the

day.

He is passionate about his sport and really feels that betting on horse racing has much

more to offer than other sports, particularly in the big handicaps. They take time to

decipher but if you find the winner it’s a great feeling. Football offers three outcomes,

win, lose or draw, a big handicap races can have multiple outcomes, and it’s a challenge

but a good one!

Daniel’s advice when choosing a tipster is simple, look for the value it is primarily all

about the value. The value you get in terms of the price you pay for your tipping

service, the return you get, the consistency of the selections and of course most

importantly the profitiabiltity.

A secondary factor is the element of risk. There are some tipsters out there who will

advise numerous selections, say 10 or more, every day in a selection of bets, singles,

doubles, trixies etc. and high volume will usually mean high risk. He doesn’t personally

advise multiples of anything larger than a double.

So with his success how does he keep his bookmaker accounts unrestricted / open? Has

he found a way around this?

It is a difficult one, but if you can Daniel recommends having several betting accounts,

3 or 4 at least, and spread the risk across your accounts. He also recommends that all

important book for recording your profit and loss and tracking your bets to ensure that

you are making a profit based on your staking plans. You can then check where you are

making the profit and if one is particular high offset the risk with another bookmaker if

the price available on a selection is similar.

A lot of the online bookmakers don’t provide you with a P&L on your accounts, we

know why, so it is imperative that you record all of your bets in detail.

Why not see for yourself how successful Daniel is? He offers three keys factors with his

service, value, excellence and consistency, this is his strapline. If you take a look at the

statistics and proofing from tipsterplanet.com website – punters can be reassured of an

exceptional service that ensures value, excellence and consistency.

We have a special 14 day free trial of Racing Excellence available to OCP readers -

CLICK HERE

Euro 2016 Betting: The best ante-post bets for this summer’s big

tournament.

It’s an even year and that can only mean one thing: we have a major international

football tournament this summer. Watching it from the comfort of the sofa or in a

packed pub when your team is winning is enjoyable enough but making money from the

tournament is even better so that’s what we’re going to try to do.

Let’s start with the obvious question: what’s the profile of a potential winner?

Greece won it in 2004, a victory that only wasn’t on a par with Leicester’s Premier

League title win because it happened over just six matches rather than 38. But that

aside, it wasn’t far off in terms of an upset but remains alongside Denmark’s win in

1992 one of the few cases of an outsider winning this competition. For those of you too

young to remember, in 1992 Denmark were brought in at the last minute to replace

Yugoslavia, who were disqualified when civil war broke out in their country.

Denmark’s players were literally whisked off a beach and told to get ready to travel to

Sweden to play. As if that wasn’t bad enough, they had to make do without star man

Michael Laudrup who wasn’t playing for the national side at the time, and lost key

players to injury as the tournament progressed.

But those are the exceptions. Spain, winners of the last two editions, were well-backed

ahead of their success. As were France in 2000, who had just won the World Cup two

years earlier. Or Germany, winners in 1996 at the expense of the Czech Republic in the

final and of course England in that heart-breaking semi-final.

So it’s probably not worth looking beyond the top three in the betting for the eventual

winner. They are France (best price 7/2), Germany (general 7/2) and Spain (11/2). Let’s

start with the latter. Winners of the last two editions of the Euros but bombed at the last

World Cup. On their side they have continuity with Vicente del Bosque still in charge

but since that World Cup they’ve lost Carles Puyol, Iker Casillas, Xavi and Xabi Alonso

and though all of them are very much past their prime, I’m not sure their experience has

been replaced in the dressing room by other players coming through. Then there’s a big

question mark up front.

Fernando Torres has had a good season at Atletico but surely he can’t lead the line at

this stage of his career. Should that role be given to the divisive Diego Costa? Can he be

trusted in the pressure cooker of a semi-final against a street-wise side like Italy or

France? Is Juventus’ Alvaro Morata, a man with just eight caps and one international

goal, the solution? Probably not. They’re also in a tricky group that they’re by no means

guaranteed to win alongside Croatia, the Czech Republic and Turkey so whereas they

should get out of it, finishing second or even third could mean a tricky opponent next

up.

It’s one of those tempting prices but not for me.

Germany can be excused for a World Cup hangover that saw them struggle at the start

of the Euros qualifying campaign. They lost little time getting back on track but once

they secured qualification, they had some pretty dodgy results including losing away to

Ireland as part of qualifying and home defeats in friendlies against England and the

USA, plus another one away to France. I can almost hear the counter-argument of ‘’But

Germany always show up when it really matters’’ ringing in my ears but I think they

might just have peaked two summers ago.

They also remind me a bit of Spain in that they could fill two midfields with class

players from a choice of Ozil, Reus, Khedira, Goetze, Can, Kramer, Bender, Schurrle

and Draxler but I don’t see who’s going to come up with all the goals. I like the

somewhat awkward yet effective Thomas Muller but I’m not sure what they have in the

way of back up for him. Podolski? Gomez?

Not sure that cuts it.

An interesting feature of previous European Championship winners is that they don’t

tend to win at home. England had every chance in 96, as did Portugal in 2004. So did

Holland, when they co-hosted with Belgium in 2000.

All fell short. But a closer look at just who is hosting this time round is worth noting.

France were the last side to win as hosts back in 1984. Back then, Michel Platini was

known for being the world’s premier playmaker (just before the explosion of a certain

Maradona) rather than known as yet another high-profile name in the latest FIFA

corruption scandal. His remarkable nine goals in five matches were the stuff of legend

and France won their first major trophy. And this is clearly a side who doesn’t mess

around on home soil.

Fast forward 14 years and France were at it again, this time with Zinedine Zidane

wearing the Number 10 shirt that Platini had once worn, and inspiring a side with a

wonderful blend of youth and experience to the World Cup. Two tournaments as hosts,

two wins.

It’s hard to pick too many flaws in this side. Gone are the days when France had at the

helm a Manager (Raymond Domenech) who didn’t play certain players together

because of their respective star signs. Boss Didier Deschamps has seen it all before in a

career that saw him captain France to that 1998 triumph and the Euros in 2000, play for

and manage both Marseille and Juventus, in addition to playing for Chelsea and

managing Monaco. Eric Cantona may have famously called him a ‘’Water carrier’’ for

his perspiration-over-inspiration style of play but few players in the world game

achieved as much as Deschamps over their playing careers. In France you have to gain

respect and he’s certainly done that. A united French side is a dangerous beast.

There are few flaws within his squad as well. A spine made up of Hugo Lloris, Raphael

Varane, Paul Pogba, Blaise Matuidi, Dimitri Payet and Antoine Griezmann is as good

as any in the tournament. Cruicially, they’ll have a strong bench as well. The likes of

Johan Cabaye, Kingley Coman and Olivier Giroud aren’t guaranteed a starting place but

can have a real impact when introduced. You’ll notice I haven’t mentioned Karim

Benzema. That’s because the Real Madrid man may miss the tournament as the

investigation into his possible blackmailing of team-mate Mathieu Valbuena goes on. It

may be a blessing in disguise; his 27 goals from 81 appearances are nothing to write

home about whilst Griezmann has been brilliant the last couple of seasons. This French

sides ticks just about every box as potential champions.

First though, they should win Group A relatively easily. But there’s a case to be made

for Romania finishing runners-up to them over Switzerland, at a considerably bigger

price. No side conceded fewer goals than Romania in qualifying (just two) and only

England, Austria and Italy joined Romania as being unbeaten in qualifying. There were

admittedly five draws alongside their five wins which is why they finished second to

Northern Ireland but there’s a lot to be said for a side described as, to use a tired cliché,

extremely ‘’hard to beat.’

There are few star names in this Romania team but that might just help them as other

sides don’t know too much about them. Switzerland are fast becoming one of the

steady-eddies of international football but I’d be worried about a side who lost 2-0 both

home and away to England and if Romania’s defence holds up this summer, it could

well be them and not Switzerland finishing as runners-up. Albania are the other side in

the group but with the best will in the world, I can’t see them competing at this level.

France/Romania as a straight forecast is 4.0.

Elsewhere, I think Belgium are quickly gaining the status as the most over-rated side in

world football. I get it. Their side is almost exclusively made up of Premier League stars

we watch every week. So we all know their player inside out and assume they’re

fantastic as a unit. But for starters, I’m not so sure they’ve all had that great a season.

Liverpool pair Christian Benteke and Divock Origi spent the season on the bench, as did

Kevin Mirallas at Everton and Nacer Chadli at Tottenham.

Marouane Fellaini was a bit part player at Manchester United, making more headlines

for yet another suspension than any great performances on the pitch. Romelu Lukaku

started well at Everton before fading, losing form at just the wrong time, as his record of

no goals in his last eight starts shows.

At Chelsea, Eden Hazard had to wait till April for his first Premier League goals whilst

Kevin de Bruyne- arguably Belgium’s star man- suffered a serious injury. There’s no

doubting the defensive pairing of Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld and it will

have done wonders to their understanding playing a full season together at Spurs but all

in all, this looks a squad with quite a few issues. Issues which Italy look ripe to exploit.

Theirs was a tougher group than Belgium’s yet they remained undefeated, as mentioned

already. This isn’t a side containing a Totti or Del Piero but one where the total is

greater than the sum of the parts. Which is exactly how new Chelsea manager Antonio

Conte likes things. And if you’re wondering about that key word- experience- here are a

few players who will be there and their respective number of caps in brackets: Gigi

Buffon (152), Giorgio Chiellini (80), Daniele de Rossi (101), Riccardo Montolivo (60)

and Andrea Pirlo (116). Let’s not forget Italy were finalists in 2012 and 2000 so clearly

have a good record in this tournament. They may find a team too good for them come

the semis or final but they’re unlikely to find Belgium too good for them and are value

to win Group E at 2.7.

I have mixed feelings about England. I won’t say much about a near-flawless qualifying

campaign because they normally do that anyway and had little to beat this time round.

Roy Hodgson is absolutely fine as a Manager and these are exciting times with plenty of

bright young things coming through. But I’d worry about England’s ability to master

tournament football. The best sides close out games by keeping possession, winning

petty fouls, running to the corner flag and I’m not sure that’s in their DNA.

I’d also worry a little bit about their central defensive pairing.

I like Chris Smalling but Gary Cahill has been in and out of the Chelsea side, John

Stones is terribly error-prone and Everton team-mate Phil Jagielka just too slow for

international football. This might yet be just another somewhat noble quarter-final exit.

But there is a betting opportunity concerning England.

Of these six favourites to top score for England at Euro 2016- Harry Kane, Jamie

Vardy, Wayne Rooney, Danny Wellbeck, Daniel Sturridge and Raheem Sterling - I’d be

surprised if more than four boarded the plane.

And I’d be very surprised if more than two made the starting line-up with the others

coming on for them at some stage.

So, it might pay to go with Delle Ali to top score for England at a far bigger 13.0.

He’s almost guaranteed to start every game, so impressive was he this season, and

though 11 goals this campaign isn’t that remarkable, it’s impressive. Two goals in

France may well be enough to see him be top scorer and he’s definitely the value.

Back France to win Euro 2016 @ 4.5

Back France/Romania in Group A Straight Forecast @ 4.0

Back Italy to win Group E @ 2.7

Back Delle Ali to be England’s Top Goalscorer @ 13.0

You can get daily tips and insight from James Pacheco throughout the whole of Euro

2016 by signing up to the Sportsbettingpays.uk website.

Click here to find out more

Acorn Updates

Acorn 1 - April – September.

No selections to date.

Acorn 2 - All Year

The table below shows the performances for 2015 and 2016 to date to ISP’s.

One thing is clear and that is H Bentley has been a consistent performer over both the

flat turf and all weather courses, while Michael Murphy has underperformed.

Based on the figures shown we feel that it would be prudent to concentrate of the Flat

Turf season, and to set aside following the small field angle on the All Weather except

when H Bentley is onboard.

Acorn 3 - October only.

Acorn 4 - November – April inclusive – The Three Amigos was successful for the

2015/2016 campaign.

As can be seen above, based on Industry Starting Prices both Bishop and Honeyball

performed well over the 6 month period and maintained the trend which we had seen in

previous years.

On this basis we will keep these going forward in to the 2016 winter campaign. The

Dartnall stable underperformed based on previous trend suggestions and we will look to

use the Two Amigos rather than the Three Amigos from November 2016.

Acorn 5 - Discarded based on current year’s performance.

Acorn 6 - Discarded based on current year’s performance.

Acorn 7 - All Year

Jennie Candlish +15.00 points (ISP) from 2 runners. Winner = Maoi Chinn Tire 16/1

(BFSP 18.66).

Mrs Sheila Crow +2.72 (3 placed from 7 selections)

Tracey Collins -3.20 (1 win from 5 selections)

Acorn 8 – All Year

J Camacho +7.25 points (ISP) when backing each way. Backing to place only using

BFPP (9.20 points)

D Sanderson -6.00

M J Smith – No qualifying selections to date.

Acorn 9 – April. Early Season Trainers.

R Beckett +8.40

D O’Meara +8.36

D K Weld -0.10

Hannon Jnr -5.63

Although O’Meara showed us a profit at BFSP given the high number of selections (45)

and just 5 winners we feel that the strike rate is too low to produce a worthy return on

our investment.

Weld and Hannon Jnr underperformed but Ralph Beckett reproduced a 25% strike rate

and on that basis we’ll keep with him for next April.

Acorn 10 – May to August

Moore -4.00

Greatrex and Durack No Selections to date

Carroll +12.00 (14.27 BFSP)

A safe bet?

You know how it is, you spend all morning trawling through the Racing Post, scouring

the internet for the latest horse racing news from the stables, checking in with all of the

tipsters, and double checking on Oddschecker where the best prices can be achieved and

finally, you have decided on those one or two sure fire bets for the afternoons racing.

Today is your day, today is going to be a winning day.

The race time approaches and you sit safe in the knowledge that this time, after all of

your hard work and diligent research you are on to a winner, in fact you are so sure that

given the price on offer, which of course is much larger than it should be in your

opinion you decided to have your maximum bet. Nothing can beat you this time.

Everything is in your favour. The trainer is in top form and flying in the winners left

right and centre, the jockey knows the horse and has won every time when booked for

the ride so the horse and trainer combination is red hot. All factors are perfectly set up,

the going, the distance, the competition and now your selection has been backed in even

further and is going to go off the seriously short priced favourite. Even the wind is

blowing in your direction. It’s a dead cert.

And they’re off!

Okay so your horse is a little slow off the mark but you are not going to worry, he’s

come from behind before.

The runners start to spread out but now your horse is still idling a little at the back of the

pack. Still, you don’t panic, you are not worried as the jockey knows what he is doing

and you have every confidence in him, although you begin to sweat a little as you

realise jockey and horse have some serious work to do.

This is it, they are in the final furlong, and then it is there, you can see it, the winning

post, sadly though your horse wasn’t the first one to the mark, he rolls in last of the

eight runners.

What happened?!

Be honest now you know we have all been there.

We simply forget the fact that the horses don’t know that they are supposed to win

every time they hit the track; they are not the machines that we think they are. They are

just as subject to the odd “off” day, the “under the weather” day as we are. So is there

such a thing as a sure fire or safe bet, and if there is can you actually make any money

on them?

A naïve punter may say yes of course!

If you back all the favourites you are bound to make money aren’t you as they are

favourites for a reason and the more likely horse to win the race than any other

selection?

Well let’s just see if we can be clear about what is a “sure bet” or a “sure thing”. The

definition is: a certainty; something that is sure to take place.

Truth be told, in sports betting there really is no such thing as a sure bet unless of course

you know something (or someone) we don’t ;) Now we wouldn’t be advocating any

corruption here but heh we all know that it goes on, the problem is we never seem to

know exactly where or when!

What about betting in play, surely we are guaranteed to win then?

Sadly this is not the case.

How many times have you backed your favourite football team to win only to see them

lose their match in the final dying minutes of the game, or even worse in injury time!

You know it happens and it happens regularly.

All that we can do is to try and tip the balance of scales in our favour and use the weight

of logic we have and the information that is available to us.

Remember, all of those “dead certs” will have their chances reflected in their very slim

odds offered to you and you are going to need a seriously healthy strike rate in the long

run to turn that dead cert betting pattern into profits.

Some psychologists argue that there are sure fire bets to be had but the problem actually

lies in the people placing the bets, and, more importantly, the way they place their bets.

Us humans are by our very nature complicated characters and emotional animals yet we

regularly fail to take these traits into account when placing our bets, the inevitable

result, our bets lose.

We are sure we can all admit to a certain modicum of impatience, you only have to stop

and take a look at any one of the numerous betting forums out there to read comments

which state “this has stopped working” after just a three or four bets have been placed

over a weekend and the method had only been started on the Friday afternoon!

The reverse though is also true. Someone will spot a red hot tipster who is scorching

with the speed and number of winners they are generating and everyone should get on

board now!

The fact is neither of these situations is in fact true because if we can manage both of

these “emotional” situations in a rational manner and get ourselves back to the simple

mathematics and statistical probabilities we actually have the foundations to get our

betting back on track and reward ourselves with positive profits.

The way to do this is to adopt something which is referred to in the Finance Industry as

Behavioural Portfolio Theory.

The theory was suggested in 2000 by Sherif and Statman and it provides an alternative

to the assumption that the ultimate motivation for investors is the maximisation of the

value of their portfolios. It actually suggests that investors have a series of aims and

create a portfolio which can meet their broad range of goals.

Let’s think of a pyramid.

Our foundation level is that we want to protect our bank at all costs.

The next level up is that we want to be able to grow our bank.

The final level and top tier is how exactly do we complete level two, in this instance by

gambling.

Whatever happens, protecting our bank should always remain our top priority. Lose this

and the pyramid will collapse.

So our gambling version of the Behavioural Portfolio Theory would look something

like this.

If we find the correct systems / methods / and approaches for each level of our pyramid

we can, in theory, be successful with our betting and this is where a portfolio approach

can help us.

If we can find a handful of well researched and complimentary systems we can manage

we will be in a position to know exactly how each tier of our pyramid is performing.

If we decided to jump ship from one system or method to another on a regular basis

then we are going to head for failure long term. If we can adopt a balanced strategy then

we can make our betting pay for us. We have to be after the long term profits not the

short term gains.

If we are flying high then we can afford to “gamble” but when things start to feel a little

leaner on the profits front then we need to be prepared to adopt a risk averse approach

and protect the betting bank.

There is also an argument that if you do find that golden goose of a method you should

keep it to yourself!

Imagine the situation. You have studied and researched hard to put your winning

portfolio together, invested hours of your precious time. If you find a good system then

you can guarantee that there is a very strong chance that someone else may have spotted

that same system too.

Now this system starts to work against us. The system becomes a victim of its own

success.

People start talking amongst themselves on the plethora of forums and the chatter starts,

once those systems are shared and used too often then we lose the edge. Prices become

shorter; the amount the bookie will take becomes smaller….

If you are looking for the sure fire bet then realistically you need to start learning about

arbitrage betting. When done correctly arbing is the only method which will allow you

to cover all potential outcomes of an event at the same time and STILL make a profit,

but as we have touched on in previous articles these types of bets come with their own

batch of problems.

The only other way would be to go down the route of Matched Betting which we have

touched on before. Matched betting will cover all possible outcomes of a bet in order to

take advantage from the free bets often offered from the bookmakers.

Or you could take the totally alternative route, become a bookmaker! Well you may

never gain on a bet but at least that way you’ll never lose neither.

Product Reviews

First up for the reviews this month are the Racing Advisor EyeCatchers.

Cost: Currently discounted to £12 per month

The Trial: The EyeCatchers come from the well-known and respected Race Advisor

stable and is a list of horses noted in running.

To calculate the performance is a little difficult as some are noted as small each way

selections or half stake bets but for the purpose of our review we have calculated all bets

to 1 point based on Industry Starting Prices.

Our results to date have shown 12 winners from the 61 selections and an overall profit

of a shade less than 14.50 points.

There is no doubt that these profits could be improved upon using Best Odds

Guaranteed or Betfair Starting Prices as we achieved a price of 20/1 about a 12/1

winner.

One comment we can make is that the website is impressive and any selections for the

day are shown early in the morning.

Conclusion: We are going to continue monitoring the EyeCatchers but as things we

stand we definitely feel that this is a service worthy of note and addition to your betting

armoury.

You can find out more here.

Cost: £49.00 per month / £99.00 per quarter / £279.00 per year.

The Trial: Donkey Derby is another lay service from Stark Investors which we started

following earlier last month.

It is still early days but the service has got off to a good start with 21 winning lays from

24 selections and a profit of almost 9 points.

Conclusion: We’ll keep you posted.

Cost: £7.00 for the first month and then £27.00 per month or £57.00 per quarter.

The Trial: Just a quick update on Statpicks this month. This has been the first losing

month of the year to date with 6 winners from their 30 selections.

Our cumulative position overall is now 39 winning bets from 158 and an overall profit

of a shade of 32 points.

They may have had a losing month but the points profit still shows a healthy return on

investment of over 20% which we certainly cannot complain about.

Conclusion: Recommended, and you can find out more here.

Cost: First 30 days £1.00 thereafter £29.95 per month or £69.95 per quarter

The Trial: With another month under our belt this service has continued to be

successful with 35 winning lays from the 41 selections and a further profit of almost 8.5

points.

Cumulatively we are now standing at 124 successful lays from the 142 selections

received and a profit of almost 33 points.

The profit is a little distorted as a lay won its race at a Betfair Starting Price of 11.33,

and the service providers have subsequently decided to limit the lay maximum price to

8.00.

Conclusion: A very consistent service. You can find out more here

Cost: £49.00 + VAT every 28 days or £98.00 + VAT every 90 days

The Trial: This service is predominantly and each way service which offers up 3 or 4

selections a day staking 1.5 to 2 points each way and quite often throwing in a patent

too.

The staking does mean that the outlay on your bets can be pretty steep and to date we

have had 9 winners from 69 selections and an overall loss of 13.50 points.

This loss would have been much higher had there not been a winning day of + 60points

with an 8/1 shot and an 11/1 shot backed singly and in a patent.

We have so far staked a total of 283 points to generate the 13.50 points profit and it is

clear that this service is very much a speculative one which will rely on the odd large

win to keep the customers happy.

Conclusion: Will report back next month.

Cost: Dependent on desired contract

The Trial: Looking back we think we may have been a little over optimistic about this

service in our initial opinion.

Back in February we felt that we should be up to achieving our desired profit of 50

points by the end of April as at the time we were sitting with 13 points profit in the bank

(based on Betfair Starting Prices and after allowing for 5% commission).

By the end of March we were looking at needing to win 75 points profit and at the time

of writing we are now in need of 111 points!

We had 51 bets last month of which 11 were winners at prices ranging from 2.32 to

4.89, but overall we lost an additional 36 points.

Conclusion: We are hopeful that the summer reason will see the service resume to

winning ways, but we will hang up our review hat for this one.

Cost: £50.00 per month or £125.00 per quarter

The Trial: We’ve been following this horse backing service since late April.

This is the second advisory n the Classic Racing Group which we have previously given

the thumbs up to in respect of their Gold tipping service.

The John McDonald Racing service sends out their selections any time between the

evenings before the racing up until around one o’clock the next day.

Unlike its sibling service it doesn’t concentrate on Irish racing but is much more general

in its recommendations.

During the first 11 days of receipt of the selections there were 21 suggested bets, either

to win only or each way, and staking between 1 and 3 points at the advised odds.

With 6 winners and a strike rate of 28.50% we are showing just a small loss of less than

0.50 points to the advised odds and stakes.

The selections do shorten in price and in addition backing the selections at Betfair SP

would see you almost 5 points in the red after commissions.

Conclusion: We will keep you posted.

Cost: One Off Payment £50.00

The Trial: We have been following this service and receiving the daily text message

since early April.

Even if there are no selections that day you will receive a text and so for the month of

April we had 7 no bet days.

The rest of the month there were 34 selections with 13 winners which on the surface

look excellent with a strike rate of 38% but sadly we did not manage to show a profit.

Most of the selections had starting prices of between 7/2 and 4/9 and we were left with a

loss of almost 7 points based on one point level stakes betting on Industry Standard

Prices.

The majority of the time the text messages are received between 11.00am and 12.00pm

so we would expect Best Odds Guaranteed early prices to improve results.

Conclusion: Will continue to monitor.

Cost: £39.50 per month

The Trial: We have only just started monitoring this service which is another horse

backing system from the Pro Betting Club.

The system though is different from nay in that it averages over 30 bets per day!

It is claiming to have shown a profit over the past 4 months backing at simple one point

level stakes based on Betfair Starting Prices and after the 5% commission has been

deducted.

Conclusion: We’ll keep you posted.

Tipster Table

The On Course Profits Tipster Table for the past 90 days based on Best Odds

Guaranteed and Advised Stakes.

1. Early Odds – Strike Rate 27% ROI 52%

Topping the table this month is Early Odds. The month of March started off slow but 4

winners from 5 selections on 26th including Universal Soldier 9/1 and Full Jack 10/1

got things moving for the service and they have continued to add in some nice priced

winners to their tally.

Other recent winners include Fort Carson 16/1, Abyaat 10/1, and more recently

Judicial 14/1. In addition it is worth noting that advised stakes are 1 point only so we

are not looking at any “false” returns here.

Find out more about the service

2. Russell Blair Racing – Strike Rate 16% ROI 48%

The past three months have been pretty steady for the service with the bulk of the profit

showing to date being accrued at the end of February.

They have added to this now with a recent win from Clear Spring 25/1 but otherwise

they seem to have flat lined. Hopefully they can continue to add in the winners and add

to the profits tally too.

Find out more about the service

3. Value Backing Extra – Strike Rate 17% ROI 33%

The Value Backing service continues to deliver profits while concentrating on the

bigger meetings, but in between, and for those who like a more regular punt, there are

the Value Backing Extra tips.

Find out more about the service

4. Carl Nicholson’s Racing Diary – Strike Rate 20% ROI 26%

Two entries in the latest Tipster table from the Value Backing Service. Enough said!

Recent winners include Dinneratmidnight 14/1 and Court Baloo 6/1.

Find out more about the service

5. Lucky 7 Naps – Strike Rate 21% ROI 25%

This service continues to land some big priced selections with the latest being the 40/1

selection Don’t Touch It at the Punchestown Festival. With staking of 5 points this

needless to say brought in a healthy profit to the bank. This service may not be for most

of us, but somehow they do manage to find the big priced winners, you just need to

make sure you join them just at the right time as there are needless to say long losing

runs.

Find out more about the service

6. Stableline Gold – Strike Rate 23% ROI 25%

In March we wouldn’t have expected to see Stableline in the table at all as they

languished in the red but healthy wins from Arctic Court 14/1, Special Catch 13/2,

Island Flame 10/1, Miss Van Gogh 14/1 and more recently Belardo 8/1 have all aided

this service to currently be showing a good profit.

Find out more about the service

7. Unity Racing Club – Strike Rate 23% ROI 24%

Unity roared in to March on the back of good profits at the end of February from

Evening Starlight 13/1 and Give Us A Belle 15/1. Subsequently they have added to the

profits with regular winners slowly but surely.

Find out more about the service

8. Rhino Roberts – Strike Rate 34% ROI 16%

Rhino Roberts returns to the fold this month after bouncing around in the red zone.

April though saw a return to form with the 20/1 winner Secret Brief, 16/1 Ubak and

more recently Nayel 12/1 and Castle Harbour 9/1.

Find out more about the service

9. The Evening Value Service – Strike Rate 18% ROI 16%

The Evening Value Service is another which over the past few months has been

struggling somewhat to keep the head above water, however, landing 33/1 shots like

Gustave Mahler on 13th May has certainly helped pull them out of the depths and back

in to the green pastures of profit.

Find out more about the service

10. The Morning Value Service – Strike Rate 16% ROI 16%

The Morning Value Service had also been struggling somewhat but has also turned

things around supported by Aprils successes with Gold Chain 10/1 and Sark at 40/1

and May’s Clear Spring 25/1 and Smuggler’s Moon 33/1.

Find out more about the service