edita food industries - re-initiation of coverage - august 2016

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PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH AUTOMOTIVE |EGYPT GB AUTO INITIATION OF COVERAGE JANUARY, 14 TH 2016 PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH FOOD & BEVERAGE |EGYPT EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE AUGUST, 3 RD 2016 WE RE-INTIATE COVERAGE FOR EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES ASSIGNING A “SELLRATING EGYPTS LARGEST LISTED CONSUMER COMPANY BY MARKET CAP. SECOND LARGEST DOMESTIC SNACKS PRODUCER WITH C12% MARKET SHARE. A STRONG POSITION ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS, HAVING THE LARGEST SHARE IN CROISSANTS AND CAKES, WHICH CONTRIBUTE MORE THAN 80% OF REVENUES. HUGE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES BACKED BY INTENSIVE EXPANSION PLANS. SELLING ITS PRODUCTS TO 14 COUNTRIES IN THE MENA REGION, WITH PARTICIPATES TO COVER FX REQUIREMENTS. HUGE CAPEX BILL TO BENEFIT FROM THE UNTAPPED GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES. COMPETITION FROM INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL PLAYERS POSE A HUGE THREAT. WE RE-INITIATE COVERAGE FOR EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES AT A FAIR VALUE OF EGP 10.43/SHARE IMPLYING A 28% DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL. HENCE, WE ASSIGN EFID A SELLRATING.

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Page 1: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH AUTOMOTIVE |EGYPT

GB AUTO – INITIATION OF COVERAGE JANUARY, 14TH

2016

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH

FOOD & BEVERAGE |EGYPT EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES – RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE AUGUST, 3RD

2016

WE RE-INTIATE COVERAGE FOR EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES

ASSIGNING A “SELL” RATING

EGYPT’S LARGEST LISTED CONSUMER COMPANY BY

MARKET CAP.

SECOND LARGEST DOMESTIC SNACKS PRODUCER WITH

C12% MARKET SHARE.

A STRONG POSITION ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS, HAVING

THE LARGEST SHARE IN CROISSANTS AND CAKES, WHICH

CONTRIBUTE MORE THAN 80% OF REVENUES.

HUGE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES BACKED BY INTENSIVE

EXPANSION PLANS.

SELLING ITS PRODUCTS TO 14 COUNTRIES IN THE MENA

REGION, WITH PARTICIPATES TO COVER FX

REQUIREMENTS.

HUGE CAPEX BILL TO BENEFIT FROM THE UNTAPPED

GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES.

COMPETITION FROM INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL

PLAYERS POSE A HUGE THREAT.

WE RE-INITIATE COVERAGE FOR EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES AT A

FAIR VALUE OF EGP 10.43/SHARE IMPLYING A 28% DOWNSIDE

POTENTIAL. HENCE, WE ASSIGN EFID A “SELL” RATING.

Page 2: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

1

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES … MASSIVE, YET EXPENSIVE EXPANSION OPPORTUNITIES TO COME … S

Stock Data Outstanding Shares [Mn] 725.4 Mkt. Cap [Bn] 10.489 Bloomberg – Reuters EFID EY, EFID.CA 52-WEEKS LOW/HIGH 13.11 – 19.99 DAILY AVERAGE TURNOVER (‘000S) 7,348.4

Ownership Berco Ltd. 41.82% Exoder Ltd. (Chipita) 12.98% Africa Samba B.V. (Actis) 7.5% Others (Free Float) 37.7%

Source: Bloomberg

ource: GB AUTO, Prime Estimates

“SELL” MARKET PRICE EGP 14.50 FAIR VALUE EGP 10.43 POTENTIAL 28% DOWNSIDE

INVESTMENT GRADE “VALUE”

Report Content: - Valuation ………………..……………............ 2

- Financial Statements …………....................... 4

- The Egyptian Snacks Food Industry ……….... 6

- Edita Food Industries Co. ……..……………... 12

Source: Bloomberg

0

5

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25

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

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Oct

-15

No

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De

c-15

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-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-1

6

Au

g-1

6

EFID.CA EGX 30 -Rebased

Source: Bloomberg

The valuation of Edita Food Industries’ stock – EFID.CA- is hit severely by the recent aggressive hikes in the risk-free rates. We used an after-tax risk-free rate of 12.50%, yielding a value of EGP 10.43/share. Since the beginning of 2016, the returns on all government securities skyrocketed, making most of the stocks’ valuation unappealing to investors; the 1-year post-tax yield rose by 310bps since January 2016. If the 1-year after-tax risk-free rate at the beginning of 2016 – 9.62% - was used, Edita’s stock would have a value of EGP 13.72/share.

The Egyptian snack foods market has experienced solid growth in the recent years, despite the economic instability, reflected in a CAGR of 21% during 2010-2015. In 2010, the snacks market stood at EGP 6.7bn, while it stood at 17.5bn in 2015. During the 2010-2015 period, all segments exhibited a double-digit growth, yet croissants showed the highest CAGR of 34% during the same period. We expect that the snacks market will reach EGP 21.3bn by 2016 and EGP 46.8bn by 2020. In the past several years, the snacks industry has grown at a faster rate than the general F&B sector. The snack foods market in Egypt is still relatively underdeveloped and underpenetrated, with average consumption per capita standing at USD 25/annum, where more developed markets such as North America, Europe and Latin America have much higher consumption per capita levels of USD 234, USD 228, and USD 78 /annum respectively.

Edita Food Industries – Edita- is a leader in the growing Egyptian packaged snack foods market. It is considered the second largest domestic snacks producer with c12% market share and it is the largest listed consumer company by market cap on the EGX. Edita markets, manufactures and distributes a range of branded baked snack products including packaged cakes, croissants, rusks, wafers as well as selected confectionary/candy products. Its local brand portfolio includes household names such as Molto, Todo, Bake Rolz, Bake Stix, Freska and MiMix. Till 2014, it had the exclusive ownership of selected international brands including Twinkies, HoHos and Tiger Tail “The HTT Brands” in 4 countries; namely Egypt, Libya, Jordan and Palestine. In 2015, it acquired the rights to its existing HTT brands in additional 12 countries in the MENA region and it also acquired the technical assistance and know-how to manufacture 11 new Hostess Brands LLC products. It currently holds the number one market position in the core cakes segment (55.6%), number one market position in the croissants segment (69.5%), and number two market position in the rusks segment (36.4%), number four market position in the wafers segment (7.3%) and number two in the candy segment (11.2%). Edita’s products are targeted towards a wide group of consumers in Egypt, both in terms of age and demographics, as well as income, as it primarily targets the mass market for snacks.

Edita started off in 1997 with 1 production line and earned revenues of EGP 24mn and it reached 25 production lines and earned revenues of EGP 2,225mn by 2015. The company historically had to add factories, production lines and overall production capacity to meet the growing demand and not to lose any of it market shares. In 2016-2020 it is expected that Edita will add 10-11 new production lines, increasing the production capacities by c50%. Edita has a very solid business model. Edita uses more than 100 different raw materials, constituting more than 80% of the company’s COGS. Such diversity in raw materials’ requirements reduces the short-term price fluctuations. Edita has a solid domestic distribution network, which plays a very important role in the penetration of its products and distribution across a wide geographical area. This gives Edita a competitive edge as having a solid distribution network may act as barrier to entry for potential competitors. Edita tries to rationalize the number of SKUs in order to achieve efficiencies while maintaining their consumers’ loyalty. The company has undertaken many strategies in the past, referred to as “Covert Pricing Strategies”. These strategies include: 1. introducing new products/flavors in existing segments at higher prices per pack, 2. introducing new premium products, 3. higher pricing for disproportionately larger packaging, 4. reducing the average weight per pack and 5. decrease the number of pieces per pack. Edita has a diversified sales mix. By 1Q2016, Edita had 5,221 wholesale customers where they represented 55% of the total revenues and it directly served 59,783 retail clients, where their sales represented 34% of revenues. Edita plans that the retail would represent 50% of revenues by 2018 as the retail customers are usually less price sensitive than wholesalers.

Page 3: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

2

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

Edita operates on a Self-funded Working Capital, as more than 97% of sales are performed on cash basis (2014 & 2015). The cash is collected at the time of sale and it is used to fund operations. The company is able to obtain favorable terms from suppliers and the raw materials and the end products have relatively short lives and cannot be stored for long periods. Consequently, this makes the company benefits from a “Negative Cash Conversion Cycle”; where the company has the ability to sell its products before paying its obligations. In 2015, revenues grew by 16% y-o-y to reach EGP 2,225mn compared to EGP 1,919mn a year earlier. In 1Q2016, Edita’s revenues dropped by 2%, standing at EGP 518.1mn versus EGP 528.9mn in 1Q2015. Cakes and croissants have always been the company’s main contributors to revenues. Edita’s net profit rose by an enormous 31.3% in 2015, recording EGP 349.1mn, against EGP 265.9mn. The Net Profit Margin improved in 2015 to reach 15.7%. In 1Q2016, net profit for the quarter dropped severely, recording EGP 32.7mn versus EGP 59.5mn in 1Q 2015. The Net Profit Margin dropped severely to reach 6.3% against 11.2% a year earlier.

Valuation: We initiate our coverage for Edita Food Industries with a “Sell” rating driven from a downside potential of 28%; driven from our estimated Fair Value of EGP 10.43 Using the DCF valuation methodology for Edita, we utilized an average WACC over our forecasted horizon of 15.58%, a risk free rate of 12.50%, and a market risk premium of 8%. We used the average F&B Sector Beta which is equivalent to 0.6.

Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF) Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25

NOPLAT

385,295

574,113

659,858

784,242

980,688

Depreciation

77,718

103,247

121,681

130,807

142,797

Gross Cash Flow

463,013

677,361

781,540

915,049

1,123,485

Change in Working Capital

43,393

36,163

34,815

36,240

34,745

Capex

(444,902)

(262,410)

(116,682)

(175,134)

(150,781)

Free Cash Flow

61,503

451,114

699,672

776,154

1,007,450

1,088,046

1,175,089

1,269,096

1,370,624

1,480,274

1190% 633% 55% 11% 30% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

Terminal Value

14,439,823

Total Cash Flow

61,515

451,120

699,673

776,154

1,007,450

1,088,046

1,175,089

1,269,096

1,370,624

15,920,097

NPV

57,922

366,803

491,598

470,441

527,784

492,388

459,365

428,557

399,655

4,009,950

Value Of Operations 7,704,462 Add: Excess Cash 462,935

Entity Value 8,167,397

Less: Value of Debt 565,151

Less: Accum. Discounted Minority Interest 35,892

Shareholder Value 7,566,354

DCF Value Per Share 10.43

Regarding perpetual growth rate, we applied a multiple-stage growth model: - 2016 - 2020: we forecasted full financial statements, as the company will

witness hyper growth rates. - 2021 - 2025: we assumed FCF to grow at a high rate of 8%. - 2026 - Infinity: the terminal value of the company is based on a perpetual

growth rate of 5%.

Hyper Growth Stage

High Growth Stage

8% Sustainable

Growth 5%

2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-Infinity

Page 4: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

3

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

We believe that a multiple-stage growth model is more appropriate for sectors such as F&B and companies as Edita, as these sectors and companies are expected to witness abnormal growth rates before achieving stable perpetual growth rates. Previously we indicated that our assumed perpetual growth rate is capped by 5%, as it is correlated with Egypt’s real GDP growth rate, and hence we opted to apply a multiple stage growth rate model for Edita. The DCF Valuation for Edita is quiet unappealing as it entails a massive downside potential of 28%. Moreover, Peer Valuation would imply that Edita is considered relatively overvalued and is currently trading at a premium. Edita has a higher Leading P/E ratio (30.17x) than its global (17.76x) and regional (12.94x) peers. Using the leading P/E multiple for global peers, Edita’ FV would stand at EGP 8.52, implying a 41.2% downside potential. From the below table, we can see that the most of the F&B stocks in the EGX, including Edita are traded at a high P/E ratios, regionally and globally. This can be attributed to the defensive nature of the sector that should be represented in the investors’ portfolios, especially in a country such as Egypt which is featured with strong domestic demand. Consequently, investors opt to allocate a portion of their portfolios towards the F&B sector regardless of the upside potential driven from DCF method.

2015 - P/E 2016 - P/E 2015 - P/B 2016 - P/B

Median Global Food Producers 17.55 17.76 1.24 1.24

Median Regional Food Producers 13.30 12.94 1.21 1.19

Edita Food Industries – EFID 30.39 30.17 8.95 7.37

Value (EGP / Share) Downside Potential

100% DCF 10.43 -28% 100% P/E Multiple 8.52 -41% 50% DCF / 50% P/E Multiples 9.48 -35%

Upside Risks:

- Faster growth in the Egyptian snack foods market, while maintaining market shares. - Gaining a larger market share in any/all of the segments. - Faster than anticipated implementation of expansion plans. - Successful price migration strategies and an improved product mix. - Stronger than expected demand from export markets. - Further softening in the costs of raw materials. - Entering into a successful M&A transaction (either a target or an acquirer). - Penetrating further regional and international markets.

Downside Risks:

- Inability to undertake the planned expansion plans. - Losing market share in any/all of the segments to local/regional/international competitors. - Increased consumer price sensitivity due to inflation and the deterioration of the macro-economic conditions. - Unsuccessful SKU upsizing and unacceptance of higher priced SKUs. - Higher than anticipated rise in costs of raw materials. - Further devaluation of the EGP and FX exposure. - Unsuccessful penetration in the new exports markets.

Page 5: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

4

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

Financial Statements … Historical & Forecast

Income Statement Brief Hist. Forecast In EGP Mn 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Revenues 2,225.4 2,760.1 3,428.8 3,957.7

Change 16% 24% 24% 15%

COGS 1,280.5 1,640.96 1,968.98 2,302.5

Change 13% 28% 20% 17%

Gross Profit 944.9 1,119.1 1,459.8 1,655.2

Depreciation & Amortization 76.8 77.7 103.2 121.7

EBITDA 496.5 585.3 854.5 989.8

Net Income (Before Minority Interest) 349.1 342.9 549.2 651.9

Net Income (After Minority Interest) 346.1 348.6 550.8 654.4

Net Attributable Income 335.7 338.1 534.3 634.7

NPM 15% 12% 16% 16%

Balance Sheet Brief Hist. Forecast

In EGP Mn 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F

Cash 462.9 191.5 366.9 669.02

Net Receivables 63.1 44.96 53.95 63.1

Net Inventory 140.3 178.8 214.6 250.9

Other Current Assets 4.7 4.5 5.4 6.4

Total Current Assets 671.1 419.9 640.88 989.4

Net PPE 1,143.5 1,549.7 1,747.9 1,781.9

Net Intangibles 161.97 161.97 161.97 161.97

Other LT-Assets 156.01 117.01 78.00 39.00

Total Long Term Assets 1,461.5 1,828.7 1,987.8 1,982.8

Total Assets 2132.6 2,248.6 2,628.7 2,972.2

Liabilities

STD - incl CPLTD 218.9 122.2 103.96 77.09

Accounts Payable 210.01 269.2 323.01 377.8

Page 6: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

5

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: EDITA & PRIME ESTIMATES

Total Current Liabilities 498.5 465.3 528.9 583.2

Total Long Term Liabilities 459.3 356.8 291.5 257.4

Total Liabilities 957.8 822.1 820.4 834.7

Equity

Paid-in-Capital 72.5 72.5 72.5 72.5

Reserves 38.8 56.3 73.7 101.5

RE 1,057.7 1,297.7 1,669.3 1,978.8

Total Equity 1,174.8 1,426.4 1,808.3 2137.4

Financial Ratios Hist. Forecast GPM 42% 41% 43% 42%

EBITDA 22% 21% 25% 25% NPM 15% 12% 16% 16% EPS 0.48 0.48 0.77 0.91 DPS 0.22 0.22 0.42 0.59 P/E 30.39 30.17 18.91 15.93

EV/EBITDA 21.5 18.3 12.2 10.2 ROA 17.97% 15.44% 22.13% 22.86% ROE 30.48% 24.02% 31.18% 30.43%

Debt/Equity 44.91% 36.56% 31.21% 28.08%

Total Assets Turnover 1.19 1.24 1.41 1.41

Page 7: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

6

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

SOURCE: CBE, PRIME RESEARCH, BMI, EDITA FOOD INDUSTRI

EGYPTIAN SNACK FOODS MARKET

BLOOMBERG WORLD FOOD INDEX BLOOMBERG GLOBAL SNACKS VALUE INDEX

The Egyptian Snack Foods Industry:

The Egyptian snack foods market has experienced solid growth in the recent years, despite the economic instability, reflected in a CAGR of 21% during the period 2010-2015. In 2010, the snacks market stood at EGP 6.7bn, while it stood at EGP 17.5bn in 2015. During the 2010-2015 period, all segments exhibited a double-digit growth, yet croissants showed the highest CAGR of 34% during the same period. Based on the historical CAGR, it is expected that the snacks market will reach EGP 21.3bn by 2016 and EGP 46.8bn by 2020. The Food & Beverage is one of the sectors that have proven to be solid and resilient since 2011, showing a steady growth rate, unlike most of the other sectors which witnessed a slowdown due to the political and economic instability. The consumption of food & beverage stood at EGP 255.6bn in 2011 and it reached EGP 430.7bn in 2015, showing a CAGR of 14%. The sector in general outpaced the growth in real GDP during the same period, which was around 2.5%. It is worthy to note that the snacks industry has even grown at a faster rate than the general food & beverage sector.

6.7

8.1

11.7 13.1

14.918

17.506

20.9%

44.4%

12.0% 13.9% 17.3%

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

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20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Snacks Market - EGP bn y-o-y Growth Rate (%)

FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015

GDP at market prices- EGP Bn 1,371.8 1,576.0 1,843.8 2,101.9 2,429.8

Real GDP Growth (%) 1.80% 2.20% 2.10% 2.20% 4.20%

CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 CY2015

Food Market - EGP Bn 255.6 299.1 334.9 377.9 430.7

Growth Rate (%) 14.11% 17.00% 11.99% 12.83% 13.96%

Snacks Market - EGP Bn 8.1 11.7 13.1 14.9 17.5

Growth Rate (%) 20.90% 44.44% 11.97% 13.89% 17.36%

The snack industry growth rates exceeding the growth of the general F&B sector is not only a local phenomena, it is in fact a global one. During the past few years, the snacks industry has grown at a faster rate than that of the F&B sector and this trend is expected to persist. It is expected that the global market for snacks will reach USD 630bn by 2020, where between 2013 and 2014, consumers around the world spent USD 374bn on snack foods annually. During the period 2010-2015, The Bloomberg World Food Index showed a CAGR of 9%, where the Bloomberg Global Snack Value Index grew at a CAGR of 24%.

0

50

100

150

200

250

01-

01-

2010

01-

07-

2010

01-

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2011

01-

07-

2011

01-

01-

2012

01-

07-

2012

01-

01-

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01-

07-

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01-

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01-

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2015

01-

01-

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01-

07-

2016

20

40

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100

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01-

01-

2010

01-

07-

2010

01-

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01-

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Page 8: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

7

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: CBE, CAPMAS

SOURCE: NIELSEN GLOBAL SNACKING REPORT

DEMOGRAPHICS PROFILE

POPULATIONS IN THE MENA COUNTRIES (MN.)

USD Bn %

Europe 167 45%

North America 124 33%

Asia Pacific 46 12%

Latin America 30 8%

Middle East & Africa 7 2% Total

374 100%

In 2013-2014, Europe represented the largest snacks market worldwide

with a 45% share followed by North America with a share of 33%. Even

though the sales value in the regions of Asia Pacific, Latin America and the

Middle East & Africa are quiet lower than those in Europe and North

America, annual growth rates in the last several years have been much

higher in these regions. The growth in the global snacks market will be

mainly driven by the developing countries, due to the surging urbanization

rates, growing per capita income and the changing food cultures.

In Egypt, the demographic profile is very appealing for the food and beverage industry generally and specifically the snack foods industry. Egypt is the most populous country in the MENA region, with a population that currently stands at 91.5mn. Population figures have shown an average annual increase of 2.5% during 2010-2015. Egypt has one of the world’s most youthful populations, where approximately 60% is under the age of 30 and only 5% is above the age of 60. This extremely young and dynamic population gives the country’s future prospects an undeniable strength. Also, Egyptians tend to spend around 40% of their income on food items, which makes it the highest expenditure group for the average Egyptian household.

However, more than 50% of the Egyptians are considered poor, low-income consumers and hence they are price-sensitive. The slowly-yet-improving income levels and the rapid urbanization, more time spent away from home, longer commutes, the increase in the number of women joining the labor force and growing number of students in schools and universities have affected the consumption patterns towards packaged food and packed snacks specifically.

Moreover, the snack foods market in Egypt is still relatively underdeveloped and underpenetrated, with average consumption per capita standing at USD 25/annum, where more developed markets such as North America, Europe and Latin America having much higher consumption levels of USD 234, USD 228, and USD 78 /annum respectively. On the other hand, there are many obstacles that hindered the profitability of snack producers. The main difficulties that snack producers faced in the past were the reliance on imported raw materials, such as flour, sugar, cocoa, oils which are all known to have very volatile prices. Also, snack producers have been challenged in recent years to maintain their margins, due to the economic slowdown and the EGP devaluation. Most of the producers have resisted raising their product prices, fearing that consumers will either switch to cheaper brands or stop buying altogether. Consequently, many companies slightly reduced their SKU sizes or cut down on the fillings, or purchased raw materials from other suppliers with lower-quality materials.

0 20 40 60 80

100 92

79 79

40 36 34 32 11 9 8

0-14 Years , 31%

15-24 Years, 20%

25-54 Years, 39%

55-64 Years, 6%

65+ Years, 4%

0-14 Years

15-24 Years

25-54 Years

55-64 Years

65+ Years

Annual Average of Household Expenditure by Expenditure Groups %

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 38%

Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 4%

Clothing & Footwear 5% Housing, Electricity, Water, Gas & Other Fuels 18%

Furniture & Equipment 4%

Health 9%

Transport 5%

Communication 2%

Recreation & Culture 2%

Education 4%

Restaurants & Hotels 4%

Others 3%

Page 9: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

8

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: NIELSEN GLOBAL SNACKING REPORT

SOURCE: IPSOS TRACKER

WHERE PEOPLE EAT SNACKS INSTEAD OF "BREAKFAST" WHERE PEOPLE EAT SNACKS INSTEAD OF "LUNCH"

WHERE PEOPLE EAT SNACKS INSTEAD OF "DINNER"

It is worthy to note that a growing percentage around the world would choose to eat a snack instead of eating breakfast, lunch or dinner. Egypt was found to be one of the top countries, where people would prefer to snack over having a real meal, especially breakfast.

72%

67%

67%

63%

62%

62%

62%

50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75%

India

UAE

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Russia

Brazil

Mexico

61%

61%

58%

57%

56%

53%

53%

50% 55% 60% 65%

India

UAE

Turkey

Mexico

Egypt

Pakistan

Brazil

65%

62%

61%

60%

57%

56%

53%

50% 55% 60% 65% 70%

Egypt

India

Brazil

UAE

Mexico

Indonesia

Venezuela

Product Past Month Consumption

Cakes 96%

Wafers 95%

Potato Chips 95%

Sweet Croissants 93%

Corn Tortilla 84%

Chocolate 82%

Baked Wheat 80%

Biscuits 78%

Savory Croissants 68%

Gum 63%

Ice Cream 57%

Candy 51%

Filled Biscuits 45%

Brownies 7%

Donuts 2%

According to IPSOS, consumption patterns in Egypt are characterized by the

consumption of multiple brands, consuming an average of 4-5 times / week and

consuming different 5-6 categories / week. This resembles that consumers do

not possess any loyalty to any specific category / product. The product

penetration is different across all categories, with Wafers, Potato Chip, Cakes

and Sweet Croissants are among the highest categories with respect to the

penetration. The snacks industry can be divided into 4 quadrants; Mass,

Dormant, Green field and Niche. The “Mass” quadrant - which has most of the

snack categories - is characterized by a high penetration level and consumption

with high consumption frequency.

Page 10: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

9

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: NIELSEN RETAIL AUDIT. APRIL 2016

SOURCE: NIELSEN

MARKET STAGES BY PRODUCT TYPE

AVERAGE SKU PRICES BY PRODUCT SEGMENT (EGP)

Low affordability levels and price sensitivity have a huge impact on consumer choices among different snacks, where consumers would go more for affordable snacks, with SKUs prices between EGP 0.8 (USD 0.11) and EGP 1.2 (USD0.17) per SKU, according to Neilsen.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Croissants 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2

Wafers 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8

Salty Snacks 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0

Cakes 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8

The snack food market in Egypt is relatively underdeveloped, where it witnessed fast market growth and several new brands were introduced to the market. The Egyptian shopping habits have changed to a large extent in the last decade; shifting from independent small grocers to supermarkets and hypermarkets. As for snacks, the traditional sales channels – namely kiosks / “mom & pop” shops and small groceries remain to dominate. Due to the favorable conditions in the local food market, including the snack market, regional and international food/snack producers have shown interest in penetrating the Egyptian market. Some producers have penetrated the market with their own brands, such as Mondelēz International (producing Tuc, Cadbury, Hallz, Oreo, Toblerone, Milky’s, Trident and Tang), while others have acquired local brands, such as Kellog acquiring BiscoMisr and Mass Foods in 2015. Generally, local brands perform better than imported products across most categories, mainly due to pricing and international companies being subjected to import taxes, forcing them to price their products much higher than their locally produced counterparts.

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Penetration of Category - Once per Month (% Mar - Sep 2015)

Frequency -

Number of

Times

Consumed per

Week

Niche

Green Field Dormant

Mass

v

Gum

Candies

Donuts

Brownies

Lollipops

Potatoe Chips

Cake

Ice Cream Waffer

Filled Biscuits

Savory Pate / Croissant

Chocolate

Baked Wheat

Corn Tortilla

Sweet Pate / Croissant

Biscuits

Page 11: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

10

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

CROISSANTS MARKET SHARES (%)

WAFERS MARKET SHARES (%)

RUSKS MARKET SHARES (%)

SOURCE: NIELSEN RETAIL AUDIT, APRIL, 2016

The Egyptian snack foods market is divided into 8 product categories; Packaged Croissants, Wafers, Chocolates, Salty Snacks, Cakes, Biscuits, Candy and Gum.

Croissants:

- 5% of the Egyptian snack foods market in 2015. - Value in 2015: EGP 860mn. - Fastest growing product segment. - 2010-2015 CAGR rate: 34% - Concentrated and relatively young. - Edita introducted the first branded product in 1997. - Edita has the largest market share: 69.5% (as of April 2016).

Wafers:

- 10% of the Egyptian Snack food market in 2015 - Value in 2015: EGP 1.81bn. - High growth due to frequent and high consumption patterns. - 2010-2015 CAGR rate: 25% - Dominated by 2 producers; Ocean Foods and El Shamedan. - The remainder of the market is captured by small players. - Highly fragmented. - Minimal product differentiation.

Salty Snacks:

- 40% of the Egyptian snack foods market in 2015. - Value in 2015: EGP 7.008bn. - Highest contributor to the aggregate Egyptian snack food market. - Relatively mature market, yet 2010-2015 CAGR of 18% - Highly fragmented. - Low barriers to entry.

o Rusks:

- Sub-product within the salty snacks category. - In 2015, 4.6% of the salty snacks product segment. - Value in 2015: EGP 322.4mn - 2010-2015 CAGR rate: 33% - Dominated by PepsiCo.(Chipsy) and Edita.

Edita - Molto, 70%

Al Faysal - Brunch, 21%

Monginis - Monginis, 4%

Faragello - Faragello, 3% Others, 3%

Ocean Foods - Lambada, 33%

El Shamadan - El Shamadan,

22%

Nestle - KitKat, 12%

Edita - Freska, 7%

Bisco Misr - Bisco Wafers,

7%

PepsiCo (Chipsy) -

Samba, 4%

Others, 15%

PepsiCo (Chipsy) -

Sunbites, 64%

Edita - Bake Stix and Rolz,

36%

Page 12: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

11

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

CAKES MARKET SHARES (%)

CANDY MARKET SHARES (%)

SOURCE: NIELSEN RETAIL AUDIT, APRIL, 2016

Cakes:

- 10% of the Egyptian snack foods market in 2015. - Value in 2015: EGP 1.699bn - Relatively mature market – 2010-2015 CAGR rate: 23% - Low market fragmentation. - Edita has the largest market share: 55.6% (as of April 2016).

Candy:

- 3% of the Egyptian snack foods market in 2015. - Value in 2015: EGP 584mn. - Slowest segment of the snack food market. - 2010-2015 CAGR rate: 14% - Highly fragmented – 40 % captured by the small producers.

Chocolates, Biscuits and Gums:

- Chocolate market size in 2014: EGP 3.2bn - Biscuits market size in 2014: EGP 1.7bn - Gums market size in 2014: EGP 0.7bn - 2010-2015 CAGR rate: 25%

Edita - HoHos, Twinkies, Tiger Tail, Todo, 56%

Al Mansour - Hero , TeTe ,

13%

Monginis Bakery -

Monginis, 7%

River Foods - Droo, 7%

Bisco Misr - Fundo, 2%

Others, 17%

Mondelez - Jelly Cola, Halls, 22%

Edita - MiMiX, 11.20%

Delta Co. - Scotch

Mints, 7.80%

Others, 59%

Page 13: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

12

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: EDITA

Edita Food Industries Co.:

Edita Food Industries SAE was founded in 1996, by the Berzi family and Chipita International (through Exoder Limited). It is a leader in the Egyptian packaged snack foods market that was estimated at EGP 17.5bn in 2015. It is considered the second largest domestic snacks producer with c12% market share and it is the largest listed consumer company by market cap on the EGX. It markets, manufactures and distributes a range of branded baked snack products including packaged cakes, croissants and rusks, wafers as well as selected confectionary/candy products. Its local brand portfolio includes household names such as Molto, Todo, Bake Rolz, Bake Stix, Freska and MiMix. Till 2014, it had the exclusive ownership of selected international brands including Twinkies, HoHos and Tiger Tail “The HTT Brands” in 4 countries; namely Egypt, Libya, Jordan and Palestine. In 2015, it acquired the rights to its existing HTT brands in additional 12 countries in the MENA region; Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia and the UAE. It also acquired the technical assistance and know-how to manufacture 11 new Hostess Brands LLC products. It currently holds the number one market position in the core cakes and croissants segment and number two market position in rusks.

The Group Structure:

Edita Food Industries SAE directly performs all the industrial operations, except for the candy manufacturing which is done by Edita Confectionary Industries SAE. The group has 3 subsidiaries; Digma SAE, Edita Participation Cyprus LTD and Edita Confectionary Industries SAE.

Ownership Structure and the IPO:

Digma S.A.E. 99.8%

Edita Confectionary Industries S.A.E. 77.7%

Edita Food Industries S.A.E.

Edita Participation Cyprus LTD

100%

Digma Trading SAE is the group’s distribution company

responsible for the sale of Edita’s products and imported

products. Edita Participation Cyprus Ltd. is a vehicle that was

established to be able to invest in other companies and other

countries in the future; hence it is currently dormant and has no

activities. Edita Confectionary Industries SAE produces the candy

products. It is a JV with Confindel Cyprus, which is the investment

vehicle of the Lavdas Company, a Greek company with massive

experience in the candy production. The remaining 22.3% of Edita

Confectionary is owned by Confindel Cyprus.

Prior the IPO, the Berzi family held 41.8% stake in Edita Food Industries through Berco Limited. The remaining shares were those of Africa Samba B.V. and Exoder Limited representing 30% and 27.9% respectively. Africa Samba B.V. is a subsidiary managed by the pan-emerging markets private equity firm Actis. Exoder Limited is wholly-owned by Chipita, a Greek snack foods manufacturer, selling flour-based snacks and chocolate confectionary in more than 35 countries. In April 2015, Edita Food Industries was listed on the EGX, with GDRs (each GDR representing 5 shares) trading on the London Stock Exchange. The institutional offering (92,483,770 shares) was 13.4x oversubscribed, while the retail offering (16,320,665 shares) was 4.5x oversubscribed. The offer price was USD 12.28/ GDR and EGP 18.50/share. Prior to the offering, the company’s issued share capital was 362,681,450 ordinary shares, each with a par value of EGP 0.2. The selling shareholders were Africa Samba B.V. and Exoder Limited. In March 2016, Edita’s EGM approved raising the company’s capital to reach EGP 145.07mn from 72.5mn, through a 1-1 bonus shares for 2015. In June 2016, Africa Samba B.V., Actis’ subsidiary sold 7% of its share in Edita for EGP 905.8mn. The company sold 50.7mn shares at an average price of EGP 17.85 and it remains to hold 8% stake in Edita.

Berco Ltd, 41.82%

Exoder Ltd (Chipita),

27.98%

Africa Samba B.V. (Actis),

30%

Others , 0.21%

Pre-IPO

Berco Ltd, 41.82%

Exoder Ltd (Chipita),

12.98%

Africa Samba B.V. (Actis), 15%

Others (Free Float), 30.21%

Post-IPO

Berco Ltd, 41.82%

Exoder Ltd (Chipita),

12.98%

Africa Samba B.V. (Actis), 8%

Others (Free Float), 37.70%

June 2016 - Present

Page 14: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

13

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

STOCK PERFORMANCE AGAINST EGX 30 INDEX

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG

Stock Performance on the EGX:

Edita’s stock (EFID.CA) exhibited a good performance since its IPO. During the first 3 months, EFID had a positive return of 35% against a negative performance of the EGX of -5%. Since the stock inception till date, the stock gained 35.9% while the EGX lost -10%.

0

5

10

15

20

25

EFID - Adjusted for Stock-Split EGX 30-Rebased

Relative Valuation:

Edita’s stock is considered relatively overvalued and is currently trading at a premium. Edita has a higher Leading P/E ratio (30.17x)

than its global (17.76x) and regional (12.94x) peers. Using the leading P/E multiple for global peers, Edita’ FV would stand at EGP

8.52, implying a 41.2% downside potential, while using the leading P/E multiple for regional peers Edita’ FV would stand at EGP

6.21, implying a 57% downside potential.

2015 - P/E 2016 - P/E 2015 - P/B 2016 - P/B

Median Global Food Producers 17.55 17.76 1.24 1.24

Median Regional Food Producers 13.30 12.94 1.21 1.19

Edita Food Industries 30.39 30.17 8.95 7.37

From the below table, we can see that the most of the F&B stocks in the EGX, including Edita are traded at a high P/E ratio, regionally and globally. This can be attributed to the defensive nature of the sector that should be represented in the investors’ portfolios, especially in a country like Egypt which is featured with strong domestic demand. Consequently, investors opt to allocate a portion of their portfolios towards the F&B sector regardless of the upside potential driven from DCF method.

2015 - P/E 2016 - P/E 2015 - P/B 2016 - P/B

EDITA 30.39 30.17 8.95 7.37

REGIONAL PEERS

SADAFCO 27.83 15.43 4.14 3.69

ALMARAI CO. 24.36 24.36 3.89 3.89

AGTHIA GROUP PJS 19.87 19.87 2.98 2.98

JORDAN VEGETABLE 18.13 18.13 1.21 1.21

KUWAIT FOOD CO. 17.86 17.86 2.17 2.17

HALWANI BROS CO. 17.47 17.47 3.06 3.06

SAVOLA 14.95 14.95 2.54 2.54

GLOBAL PEERS

MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL 26.54 26.54 2.53 2.53

CADBURY NIGERIA 27.93 27.93 2.62 2.62

CAMPBELL SOUP CO. 19.95 19.95 11.08 11.08

DAIRY CREST GRP. 20.58 22.17 2.10 6.48

EXOTIC FOOD PCL. 19.76 19.76 3.57 3.57

FLOWERS FOODS 22.36 23.54 3.57 3.67

THE HERSHEY CO. 21.65 21.65 19.39 19.39

NESTLE CI 17.60 17.60 9.17 9.17

Page 15: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

14

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

Products Portfolio:

Edita operates in 5 core product segments; namely cakes,

croissants, rusks, wafers and candy. All of the segments are

further split into sub-product segments. Majority of the

company’s products are considered mass-market affordable

offerings targeting all demographic groups. Consumers between

the ages of 10-45 years are Edita’s main target market, yet some

products have a narrower focus, such as MiMix toffee and all the

Jelly varieties that have a target market of consumers with ages

10-17, whereas Freska and Bake Rolz are markets for relatively

elder consumers with ages of 16-30 years.

The “Cakes” segment is divided into 3 main sub-segments: filled

cakes, rolled cakes and layered cakes. There are 4 main brands in

the cakes segment; Todo, HoHos, Twinkies and Tiger Tail. Edita

penetrated the Cakes segment in 2003 and it launched the Todo

brand in 2010 as a premium brand in order to capture further

market share. In 2013 Edita acquired the ownership of the HTT

brands in Egypt, Libya, Jordan and Palestine. Twinkies and HoHos

are sold domestically and internationally, while Tiger Tail is an

export brand only. In 2015, Edita acquired the rights to the

existing HTT brands in 12 additional MENA countries and it

acquired the technical assistance and know-how to manufacture

11 new Hostess Brands LLC products. Todo is considered to be a

more of a premium brand targeting consumers of ages 16-24

years living in urban-areas in Egypt and it is exported as well.

Currently the company has 21 SKUs in the Cakes segment.

The “Croissants” segment is divided into 2 main sub-segments:

sweet croissants and savory croissants. Molto is the only brand

under the croissants segment. Molto was introduced in 1997, in

collaboration with Chipita and since then it has become Edita’s

highest selling and fastest growing brand. Molto cheese was

introduced in 2011. Molto is promoted as a snack and an

alternative for meal replacement, targeting ages between 15-25

years. Currently the company has 15 SKUs in the Croissants

segment.

Key Milestones for Edita

1996 * Founding of Edita Food Industries S.A.E. * Beginning of construction of the E06 Factory in 6th of October City.

1997 * Launching of Molto Line, the first packaged croissants in the Egyptian market. "Croissants"

2000 * Entering the baked salty snacks market with the Bake Rolz brand as an alternative to fried snacks. "Rusks"

2003

* Entering the cakes segment by producing the HoHos, Twinkies and TigerTail (‘‘HTT’’) brands under license in Egypt from Hostess. "Cakes" * Purchasing and upgrading the Hostess factory in 10th of Ramadan city - E10 Factory.

2010 * Launching the cake products under the Todo brand.

2011

* Sales exceeded EGP 1bn. * Entering the candy market with the MiMix Brand. "Candy" * Building the E15 Factory in Beni Suef City, dedicated to the candy production.

2012

* Launching of the Wafer products, through the Freska brand. "Wafers" * Building a new production plant in Polaris Industrial Zone to meet the increased demand. E07 Factory

2013

* Acquired the HTT brands (previously produced under license since 2003) for Egypt, Libya, Jordan and Palestine. * Built a new headquarters and logistics hub in Sheikh Zayed City.

2015

* The company led a successful IPO on the Egyptian Stock Exchange "EGX" and the London Stock Exchange "LSE". * Acquiring rights to the existing HoHo’s, Twinkies & Tiger Tail (HTT) Brands in 12 additional MENA countries and acquiring technical assistance and the know-how to manufacture 11 new Hostess Brands LLC products. * Acquiring a piece of land in 6th of October City’s Polaris Al-Zamil district, which falls in close proximity to the E07 plant, to build a new factory - E08 Factory.

The “Rusks” segment has two brands; Bake Rolz and Bake Stix. The rusks segment was penetrated in 2000 by introducing Bake Rolz. Bake

Rolz was the first baked salty snack in Egypt and was promoted to be a healthier alternative to the traditional salty snacks. Later Bake Stix

was introduced. In 2011, PepsiCo. Introduced its new rusks product, Sunbites, which has led to an increase in competition, yet it led to the

expansion of the market and created further awareness of the segment. Rusks target younger urban consumers between the ages of 16-

20 years. Till date, the rusks segment is relatively new and less developed and it is known to have low penetration and low consumption

frequency. Currently the company has 14 SKUs in the Rusks segment.

The “Wafers” segment is divided into 2 main sub-segments; coated wafers and uncoated wafers. Freska is the flagship brand in the wafers

segment and it was launched in 2012. Freska was backed by a strong advertising campaign where it quickly gained high brand-awareness

and a large market share. It targets younger urban consumers between the ages 16-20 years and it is considered a premium brand, as it

uses a higher-quality chocolate relative to its competitors. The main drawback of the wafers segment is that it is highly fragmented as

there is low product differentiation. Currently the company has 5 SKUs in the Wafers segment.

Page 16: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

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PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

EDITA’S MARKET POSITION & BRAND AWARENESS

SOURCE: EDITA

The “Candy” segment is divided into 3 main sub-segments; hard candy, soft candy and jellied candy. MiMix is the flagship brand in the candy segment. MiMix was launched in 2011 as a JV with Confindel, a leading Greek candy manufacturer. It is the sole brand in Egypt that has products in all candy sub-products except for lollipops. It mainly targets school age consumers in urban areas, while the hard candy is targeted for relatively elder consumers as well. Currently the company has 18 SKUs in the Candy segment.

The “Imports” segment: In addition to the 5 core segments, Edita acts as the sole distributor of a range of food products, including Italian pasta from Barilla and olive oils from Asteria, Andalucía, Sparta and La Espanola. These products are mainly sold to the organized trade and key accounts (hypermarkets) customers.

Industrial Operations:

Edita has 4 state-of-the-art production facilities, two in 6th of October city, one in 10th of Ramadan city and one in Beni Suef. The production facility employs more than 50% of Edita’s staff. By the end of 2015, the the total production capacity reached 137,000tpa. In April 2015, Edita acquired c55,000sqm of land in Sixth of October City’s Polaris Al-Zamil district, in close proximity to its E07 plant to build a new factory. Construction in the new E08 factory has already begun and it is expected to come online by 2017. The E08 factory will have a size that is relatively similar to the E07 factory and hence we expect it to have 10-11 production lines, all to be operational by 2020.

1. E06 Factory - 6th of October City

2. E10 Factory - 10th of Ramadan

3. E15 Factory - Beni Suef

* Began operations in 1997.

* Acquired in 2003.

* Began operations in 2011.

* Produces Croissants, Cakes, Baked Snacks.

* Produces Cakes.

* Produces Hard Candy, Soft Candy and Jelly.

* 10 Production Lines.

* 4 Production Lines.

* 3 Production Lines.

* Total Land Area: 33,638sqm.

* Total Land Area: 11,733sqm.

* Total Land Area: 25,611sqm.

* Total Built-Up Area: 21,865sqm.

* Total Built-Up Area: 7,392sqm.

* Total Built-Up Area: 5,378sqm.

Market Position

Market Share

Relative Market Share

2015 Average Consumer Price

(EGP/USD) Brands

Brand Awareness

Markets

Cakes #1 64% 8.3x 0.74 / 0.09 TODO - HoHo's

- Tiger Tail - Twinkies

97%

MENA including Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Yemen,

Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon.

Croissants #1 68% 3.2x 1.13 / 0.14 Molto 100% MENA including Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Jordan, Palestine, Yemen, Lebanon

and Tanzania.

Rusks #2 37% 0.6x 1.00 / 0.13 Bake Rolz - Bake Stix

88% MENA including Egypt, Iraq, Libya,

Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon.

Wafers #4 8% 0.2x 1.00 / 0.13 Freska 81% MENA including Egypt, Jordan,

Palestine, Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco, Lebanon.

Candy #2 12% 0.7x 2.18 / 0.28 MiMix - MENA including Egypt, Jordan, West

Bank, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Kenya.

*Relative market share is calculated as Edita's market share divided by the market share of the largest competitor.

Page 17: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

16

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: EDITA

EVOLUTION OF PRODUCTION LINES

EVOLUTION OF PRODUCTION LINES

FACTORY UTILIZATION

4. E07 Factory (Halls A & B) - Polaris Industrial Park -Polaris Al-Zamil

5. E08 Factory (Halls A & B) - Polaris Industrial Park - Polaris Al-Zamil

* Began operations in 2012 & extended in 2015.

* Land purchased in April 2015.

* Produces Croissants, Cakes, Wafers and Rusks.

* Expected to come online by 2017.

* 9 Production Lines (Post the addition of 4 new lines in 2015).

* Expected to house c10 production lines.

* Total Land Area: 50,000sqm. * Total Land Area: 55,000sqm.

* Total Built-Up Area: 30,500sqm.

Cake Croissants Rusks Wafers Candy Total

1997 0 1 0 0 0 1

1998 0 2 0 0 0 2

1999 0 2 1 0 0 3

2003 4 2 1 0 0 7

2006 6 2 1 0 0 9

2007 7 3 2 0 0 12

2008 8 3 2 0 0 13

2009 9 3 2 0 0 14

2011 9 3 2 0 3 17

2012 10 4 2 1 3 20

2013 10 5 2 1 3 21

2014 10 5 2 1 3 21

2015 11 7 3 1 3 25

1Q 2016 11 8 3 1 3 26

82% 88% 100% 88% 86%

0%

50%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 2016

1 2

3

7 9

12 13

14

17

20 21 21

25 27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Edita has achieved very high utilization rates for all of its factories during the last several years, where it surpassed 100% in 2014. The company has historically had to add factories, production lines and overall production capacities in order to fulfill the growing demand for its products. Edita will have to keep adding additional production lines and capacities so it does not lose any of its market shares which can occur quiet rapidly due to the dynamicity of the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry. By the end of 2015, within the 4 facilities, Edita had 25 production lines, comprised of 7 lines for croissants, 11 lines for cakes, 3 lines for rusks, 1 line for wafers and 3 lines for candy. In 2016, Edita installed its new Strudel line with 2 SKUs, launched to market end of March 2016, under the Molto brand, namely the Patte au Chocolat and the Patte au Agwa, where it was able to price them at EGP 3/pack. The company plans to install another new candy line with a total capacity of c.2,000tpa in its E15 factory in the 2H2016 and another wafer line in the new E08 factory with capacity 3,000tpa in the 2Q2017. Edita is currently exploring opportunities to fully utilize the remaining available area in its E07 factory by adding a new production line. It is worthy to note that the company is planning to launch some of the 11 new products that it acquired their production know-how on its existing production lines by 2016. We believe that till 2020, Edita will be able to install 2-3 new lines per annum, adding c50% additional capacity during 2016-2020. The cost of installing a new production line varies severely, according to the capacity and the type of product; the rusks line was relatively expensive as it cost EGP 90mn, where the strudel line was relatively cheap as it cost EGP 40mn.

101

7.6

24.4

3.7

137

8.3 2

147.1

21

1 2 1

25

1 1

27

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Capacity ('000s Tons) No. of Production Lines

Page 18: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

17

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

BREAKDOWN OF DIRECT RAW MATERIALS

SOURCE: EDITA

SOURCE: EDITA

Business Model:

- Sourcing of Raw Materials:

- Distribution Network.

Edita has a solid domestic distribution network, which plays a very important role in the penetration of its products and distribution across a wide geographical area. This gives Edita a competitive edge as having a solid distribution network may act as barrier to entry for potential competitors. By the end of 2015, Edita had 20 distribution centers and it added one in 1Q2016, making it a total of 21. The distribution centers are across 16 governorates. Most of the distribution centers are rented under long-term contracts of up to 10 years.

The main raw materials for Edita are sugar, flour, cocoa, oils and fats, milk

and eggs, which comprise c80% of the total direct raw material requirements

by value. Such diversity in raw materials requirements, which include more

than 100 raw materials, reduces the short-term price fluctuations. For every

material, the company maintains a diverse network of reliable suppliers,

where usually it purchases from more than 100 suppliers. Generally, no

supplier accounts for more than 10% of the direct materials by value. The

company sources materials directly from producers, rather than from

traders, where it enables the company to secure better payment terms. The

company does not commit to long-term contracts with the supplier. More

than 75% of the raw materials are sourced locally and the remaining 25%,

which represents 20% of total COGS, is sourced from international markets.

The non-EGP revenues cover c.50% of the imported raw materials and the

remaining 50% is secured from either then banking system other external

sources. It purchases materials under purchase agreements with a maximum

term of one year. The average payment term with the suppliers is around 45

days. The company seeks to maintain a maximum of one month’s supply of

locally sourced materials and a maximum of three months’ supply of

imported materials and it has at least 2 approved suppliers of every direct

material. The company has been affected by the FX shortage, even though it

is a F&B company which is given a high-priority according to the CBE

regulations. Most of the F&B companies have suffered from longer lead

times and they sometimes seek the parallel market. Moreover, some of the

small-scale suppliers that supply the major food producers, such as Edita,

with raw materials face some impediments to secure FX, which may

consequently cause some disturbances for the large food producer.

According to management, Edita has suffered from an increase in lead time

for imports due to the current macroeconomic environment, even though it

has strong relations with the banks due to having a portion of the revenues

that is denominated in FCY. Edita booked some direct materials for 2016 at

quiet favorable prices, which is expected to offset partially the effect of the

EGP devaluation.

Packaging Materials ,

28%

Oils & Fats , 15%

Sugar, 13%

Flour, 12%

Eggs, 9%

Milk Powder, 3%

Cocoa Powder, 3%

Others , 17%

2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 2016

Distribution Centers 13 15 16 20 21

Vehicles 369 425 491 544 566

Page 19: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

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PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

ACTIVE SKU MANAGEMENT

SALES MIX

SOURCE: EDITA

- Pricing & Active SKU Management.

Edita tries to rationalize the number of SKUs in order to achieve efficiencies while maintaining their consumers’ loyalty. The company has undertaken many strategies in the past, referred to as “Covert Pricing Strategies”. These strategies include: 1. introducing new products/flavors in existing segments at higher prices per pack, 2. introducing new premium products, 3. higher pricing for disproportionately larger packaging, 4. reducing the average weight per pack and 5. decrease the number of pieces per pack. SKUs are sometimes delisted because either they are replaced by other relatively more profitable SKUs, or because they do not generate sufficient margins (the management has a preset minimum margin of 35% per SKU, if unattainable, the SKU is delisted). Due to the low prices of Edita’s products, it is usually very difficult to raise prices for the same SKU, even with minute increases of EGP 0.5, which is the smallest currency in circulation. Edita has never been able to raise the price of a single SKU without changing its size. Edita’s usually prefers the strategy of “SKU Upsizing”; raising the new SKU price with a higher rate than that of the pack/ product weight, then the old SKU is delisted. Consumers are not always acceptable of this strategy though, as volumes are usually hit very hard in the short-term and may take a several years to adjust. It is worthy to note that SKU upsizing in some products was unsuccessful in 2012 and it took sales two whole years to adjust. Also the Twinkies upsizing was the main reason behind the drop in revenues in 1Q2016, where the company raised the pack price by 100% reaching EGP1/pack instead of EGP 0.5/pack. However due to rise in the prices of most of the goods in the market and consumer awareness of inflationary effects on all food items, the management believes that it will take lesser time for the volumes to adjust.

- Improving Sales Mix:

Edita has a diversified sales mix. In 1Q2016, Edita had 5,221 wholesale customers where they represented 55% of the total revenues. It tries to maintain good relations with the top 100 wholesalers as they represent more than 40% of the wholesale revenues. By 1Q2016, the company had 59,783 directly served retail clients, where their sales represent 34% of revenues. Edita plans that the retail would represent 50% of revenues by 2018 as the retail customers are usually less price sensitive than wholesalers. The figures below show that the company is doing good progress so far. Key accounts, which are mainly the hyper markets and the large supermarket chains, represent only 2% and this is the only channel that is allowed to purchase on credit. Direct supply represents sales that are made directly to schools and universities and it represented only 2% of revenues in 2015.

14 13 15

2 5 6 0

-2 -2 -3 -2 -10

41

52

65 64 67 63

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

New SKUs

Delisted SKUs

Total SKUs

63%

25%

2% 2%

8% 2012

Wholesale

Retail

Key Accounts

Direct Supply

Exports

60%

31%

2% 1% 6% 2014

Wholesale

Retail

Key Accounts

Direct Supply

Exports

Page 20: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

19

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: EDITA

REVENUES, TONNAGE AND PACKS REVENUE CONTRIBUTION IN 2015

SOURCE: EDITA

- Working Capital & Cash Conversion Cycle:

Edita operates a Self-funded Working Capital, Edita has 11.8 Receivables DOH (average collection period), 53.08 Payables DOH (average paying period) and 36.2 Inventory DOH. This is mainly due to: 1. More than 97% of sales are performed on a cash basis (2014 & 2015). The cash is collected at the time of sale and it is used to fund operations, 2. The company is able to obtain favorable terms from suppliers and 3. The raw materials and the end product have relatively short lives and cannot be stored for long periods. Consequently, this makes the company benefit from a “Negative Cash Conversion Cycle”; where the company has the ability to sell its products before paying its obligations.

Financial Analysis:

Revenues:

The Cakes segment, contributed 54.2% to Edita’s revenues in 2015. The segment posted EGP 1,205mn of revenues in 2015 versus EGP 1,142mn in 2014, with a slight increase of 5.5% y-o-y. The average price point for the cakes, specifically Twinkies rose by 8.2% as a result of its upsizing. The upsizing is apparent in the packs and tons figures; 65.1 thousand tons were sold in 2015, versus 64 thousand tons were sold in 2014, however less packs were sold as it sold 2,127mn packs in 2015 and 2,181mn packs were sold in 2014.

The Croissants segment, contributed 33.6% to Edita’s revenues in 2015. The segment posted EGP 749mn of revenues in 2015 versus EGP 564mn in 2014, rising by a whopping 32.8% y-o-y. This segment is the main trigger behind the rise in revenues. Volumes sold rose by 31.9% in 2015 where it sold 850mn packs in 2015 versus 644mn packs in 2014.

The Rusks segment contributed 4.2% to Edita’s revenues in 2015. The segment posted EGP 94mn in 2015 versus EGP 89mn in 2014, showing a rise of 5.6%. The volumes sold rose in 2015 by 6.4%, as the company sold 117mn packs in 2015 versus 110mn packs in 2014. Till the end of 2015, the rusks segment used to operate at full capacity – 100% utilization rate - producing 3.9 thousand tons

58%

33%

2% 1% 6% 2015

Wholesale

Retail

Key Accounts

Direct Supply

Exports

55%

34%

2% 1%

7% 1Q 2016 Wholesale

Retail

Key Accounts

Direct Supply

Exports

In 2015, revenues grew by 16% y-o-y to reach EGP 2,225mn compared to EGP 1,919mn a year earlier. The improvement in revenues occurred due to an increase in the volumes and a slight increase in prices as well. Edita sold 3.28bn packs in 2015, where it sold 3.07bn packs in 2014, a raise of 6.8%. As for the tonnage, total tonnage sold in 2015 was 114.6 thousand tons versus 101.1 thousand tons in 2014.

2,225

114.6

3,281

1,919

101.1

3,074

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Revenues - EGP mn

Tonnage - 000's

Packs - mn

2015

2014

54.20% 33.60%

4.20%

3.80% 3.80% 0.40%

Cakes

Croissants

Rusks

Wafers

Candy

Imports

Page 21: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

20

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

NET SALES, PACKS AND TONNAGE PER SEGMENT

2015 AVERAGE PRICE POINTS

SOURCE: EDITA

SOURCE: EDITA

in 2015 versus 3.6 thousand tons in 2014. It is expected that the rusks segment will witness a boost in their sales, due to the installation of the new rusks line in December 2015, where it doubled the segment capacity to reach 7.4 thousand tons.

The Wafers segment contributed 3.8% to Edita’s revenues in 2015. The segment posted EGP 85mn of revenues in 2015 and EGP 64mn in 2014. The volumes sold by 33.7% in 2015, where it sold 115mn packs versus 86mn packs in 2014. Also the wafers segment is working at very high utilization rates till date, and thus a new production line will be installed in 2017 with a total capacity of 3,000tpa.

The Candy segment showed the strongest growth in revenues in 2015, coming from a very low base. Revenues from the candy segment showed a rise of 58.5% y-o-y, recording revenues of EGP 84mn versus EGP 53mn in 2014. The volumes sold rose by 31.5% y-o-y where it sold 71mn packs in 2015 versus 54mn packs. This improvement came on the back of capacity additions and growing market share in the Egyptian snacks market. It is worthy to note that the management is keen on gaining further market share in the candy segments, evidenced by the new production line that is going to be installed in the 2H2016 with a total capacity of 2,000 tpa.

The Imports segment was flat and no change occurred in 2015, where sales revenues remained at EGP 8mn and it had a minimal contribution of 0.4% in 2015.

2015 2014

Net Sales Packs Tons Net Sales Packs Tons

EGP mn mn 000s EGP mn mn 000s

Cakes 1,205 2,127 65.1 1,142 2,181 64

Croissants 749 850 38.9 564 644 28.9

Rusks 94 117 3.9 89 110 3.6

Wafers 85 115 3.1 64 86 2.4

Candy 84 71 3.7 53 54 2.3

Imports 8 - - 8 - -

Total 2,225 3,281 114.6 1,919 3,074 101.1

As for the prices, the average price per pack for Edita’s entire product portfolio rose by 8.7% in 2015 reaching EGP 0.68/per pack against EGP 0.62/pack. Candy and Cakes are the two segments that witnessed a hike in prices. The cakes prices increased due to the upsizing of Twinkies and the Candy prices increased due to the introduction of higher priced SKUs and new products and flavors for the soft candy.

2015 2014 %

Cakes 0.57 0.52 8.20%

Croissants 0.88 0.88 0.50%

Rusks 0.81 0.81 -0.30%

Wafers 0.74 0.74 -0.30%

Candy 1.13 0.98 21.00%

Average 0.68 0.62 8.70%

Page 22: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

21

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

GROSS SALES – LOCAL VS. EXPORT

DIRECT MATERIALS (AS % OF REVENUES & AS % OF COGS)

SOURCE: EDITA

SOURCE: EDITA

The majority of Edita’s sales come from the local market, as 94% of the gross sales came from the domestic market in 2015. We believe that during the coming several years, the exports sales will increase, on the back of the Edita’s plan to penetrate 12 additional markets; Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia the UAE. Consequently the non-EGP revenues will increase in USD and EGP terms, which will be positive incase of further EGP devaluation in the coming period and it will enable the company to cover more of the non-EGP expenses; namely raw materials.

In 1Q 2016, Edita’s revenues dropped slightly by 2%, standing at EGP 518.1mn versus EGP 528.9mn in 1Q2015. This was primarily due to the lower capacity utilization in the cakes segment due to the Twinkies upsizing. The utilization rate in the cakes segment reached 64%, leading to the drop of 15.3% in the cakes revenues.

COGS:

Gross Profit:

In 2015, gross profit increased by 20.4% to reach EGP 944.89mn against EGP 784.6mn in 2014. The cakes and croissants are the top contributors to gross profit with 54.9% and 35.1% respectively. As for the Gross Profit Margin (GPM), it stood at 42% in 2015, showing an improvement of 37.6%, which reflects the company’s direction towards the higher price points and the higher priced SKUs. It is noteworthy that croissants had the highest Gross Profit per Pack in 2015, EGP 0.36 per pack, while the wafers had the highest Gross Profit per Ton in 2015, EGP 11,058 per ton.

In 1Q2016, gross profit improved by 1.5% y-o-y as it recorded EGP 205.7mn against EGP 202.6mn. This came on the back of COGS dropping by a larger rate that that of revenues. The GPM stood at 39.7% in 1Q2016 versus 38.3% in 1Q2015.

2015 2014 2013 2012

Local Gross Sales - EGP mn 2,120 1,899 1,615 1,294

% of Gross Sales 94% 94% 94% 92%

Export Gross Sales - EGP mn 143 112 110 109

% of Gross Sales 6% 6% 6% 8%

Total Gross Sales - EGP mn 2,263 2,011 1,725 1,403

In 2015, total COGS (excluding depreciation) rose by 13% y-o-y to reach EGP 1,280.5mn versus EGP 1,133.9mn in 2014. COGS rose at a lower rate than that of revenues and this is mainly due to the general decline in global commodity prices that occurred due to the piling up of inventory and the excess supply of major crops along with a slowdown in the demand coming the emerging markets, in addition to the company’s ability to secure raw materials, which represent c80% of COGS, at quiet favorable prices. The imported direct materials constituted 25% of total direct materials in 2015, versus 23% in 2014, mainly due to the EGP devaluation. This led to a decline in the COGS/Sales ratio, where it reached 61% in 2015 against 62.4% in 2014. On the other hand, the manufacturing overhead (MOH), which represents 19% of COGS climbed 20% y-o-y in 2015 due to the rise in the costs of salaries, electricity, natural gas and machinery maintenance.

COGS dropped in 1Q2016 where it recorded EGP 312.4mn against EGP 326.3mn, dropping by 4.3%. This is mainly due to continuation of declining of global commodities and the EGP devaluation has not been reciprocated in the imported raw materials.

47% 49% 51% 52%

77% 79% 81% 81%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2015 2014 2013 2012

As % of Revenues As % of COGS

Page 23: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

22

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

GROSS PROFIT CONTRIBUTION IN 2015 GROSS PROFIT PER SEGMENT

GROSS PROFIT PER PACK - EGP GROSS PROFIT PER TON - EGP ‘000S

CAPEX 2012 - 2015

SOURCE: EDITA

CAPEX:

Edita invests heavily in CAPEX, where it spent EGP 226.18mn on average per annum since 2012. This high expenditure is necessary, as the company has achieved very high utilization rates in the past and it needs to keep installing new lines and introducing new products so it does not lose market share. We believe that in the 5 coming years, the need for CAPEX expenditure will be high. We expect that Edita will install 2-3 lines per annum till the end of 2020 in its E08 plant and in the unutilized space in E07 that is has the capacity to install a single production line.

54.9% 35.1%

3.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.4%

Cakes

Croissants

Rusks

Wafers

Candy

Imports

39.5% 40.6%

28.4%

42.2%

25.2%

38.5% 40.1%

24.9%

36.4%

12.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Cakes Croissants Rusks Wafers Candy

2015 2014

7.31 7.82 6.85

11.58

5.76

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

Cakes Croissants Rusks Wafers Candy

Gross Profit per Ton - EGP '000s

0.22

0.36

0.23

0.31 0.30

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Cakes Croissants Rusks Wafers Candy

Gross Profit per Pack - EGP

2012 2013 2014 2015

- Maintenance CAPEX – EGP Mn 26.5 56.5 63.2 95.3

- % of Revenue 2% 3.5% 3.3% 4.3%

- Expansion CAPEX – EGPmn 64.8 44.8 187.1 255.6 - Other One-Time Exp. CAPEX – EGP mn 42.3 53.4 4.4 10.9

- Total CAPEX – EGP mn 133.5 154.7 254.7 361.8

*CAPEX Drivers

* Partial investments in 3 new lines. * Partial investment in the new Polaris Industrial Park plant. * Partial investment in the construction of Zayed HQ.

* 1 New line. * ERP System upgrade (SAP License). * Partial investment in the construction of Zayed HQ

* Partial investment (c.50%) in the expansion of Polaris Industrial Park Plant. * 3 Lines came online in 1Q 2015

* EGP 56.7mn pertaining E08 land acquisition, related infrastructure and utilities work. * EGP 198.9mn due to the completion of Hall B (Extension of E07) * EGP 68.7mn to new rusks line to start operations by 2016 * EGP 33.1 for a new strudel line

Page 24: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

23

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

CAPEX 1Q 2016 & 2016 OUTLOOK

SOURCE: EDITA

SOURCE: PRIME ESTIMATES

Debt:

Edita has a relatively small exposure to debt and has several credit facilities; it has a debt/equity ratio of 44.9%. One of the key risks for Edita is its debt exposure to interest rates risk; all the outstanding loans have variable interest rates, which are primarily set with reference to the mid-corridor rate of the CBE. This entails that the company faces risk in case of raising interest rates as it would raise the interest expense and it would increase the cost of refinancing the existing debt and the issuance of new debt. Edita does not hedge against its interest rate exposure.

Net Profit:

Edita’s net profit (before minority interest) rose by an enormous 31.3% in 2015, recording EGP 349.1mn, against EGP 265.9mn. The Net Profit Margin improved in 2015 to reach 15.7%. In 1Q2016, net profit for the quarter dropped severely, recording EGP 32.7mn versus EGP 59.5mn in 1Q 2015.This drop in profit is attributed an EGP 44.5mn in FX losses due to the EGP devaluation. The Net Profit Margin dropped rigorously to reach 6.3% against 11.2%

Assumptions & Forecasts:

- Snack Foods Industry

EGP Bn. 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Cakes 2.09 2.57 3.17 3.90 4.79

Croissants 1.15 1.53 2.04 2.72 3.62

Salty Snacks 8.26 9.75 11.50 13.56 15.99

Rusks Market 0.43 0.57 0.76 1.02 1.36

Wafers 2.26 2.83 3.53 4.42 5.53

Candy 0.67 0.77 0.88 1.02 1.17

Biscuits, Gums, Chocolate 6.83 8.40 10.34 12.73 15.66

Local Snacks Market 21.3 25.8 31.5 38.3 46.8

1Q 2016 2016 -Outlook

- Maintenance CAPEX– EGP mn 25.4

EGP 460mn planned total CAPEX out of which: * EGP 160mn related to E08 construction of Hall A * EGP 55mn related to the new candy line in E15 factory. * EGP 53mn of maintenance CAPEX, mainly for distribution vehicles, machinery maintenance and R&D. * EGP 53mn allocated for waste water treatment and manufacturing excellence related projects. * EGP 70mn planned new line in 2016

- % of Revenue 0.049

- Expansion CAPEX – EGP mn 13.7

-Other One-Time Exp. CAPEX – EGP mn 9.6

- Total CAPEX – EGP mn 48.7

* CAPEX Drivers

* EGP 10.7mn was the residual of the Strudel Line. * EGP 2mn related to the new rusks line. * EGP 1mn spent on the construction of Hub A in factory E08

Page 25: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

24

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: PRIME ESTIMATES

- Revenues:

Cakes 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Sales - EGP MN 1,388 1,613 1,821 2,040 2,315

Sales - Tons 71,435 79,035 86,635 94,235 101,835

Average Selling Price EGP / Ton 19,435 20,407 21,019 21,650 22,733

Croissants 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Sales - EGP MN 980 1,349 1,601 1,976 2,184

Sales - Tons 48,454 63,511 72,511 86,040 90,568

Average Selling Price EGP / Ton 20,222 21,234 22,083 22,966 24,115

Rusks 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Sales - EGP MN 192 199 205 212 229

Sales - Tons 7,396 7,396 7,396 7,396 7,766

Average Selling Price EGP / Ton 25,928 26,965 27,774 28,607 29,466

Wafers 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Sales - EGP MN 90 123 175 182 187

Sales - Tons 3,131 4,066 5,566 5,566 5,566

Average Selling Price EGP / Ton 28,790 30,230 31,439 32,697 33,677

Candy 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Sales - EGP MN 102 136 146 159 174

Sales - Tons 4,142 5,142 5,142 5,245 5,399

Average Selling Price EGP / Ton 24,519 26,480 28,334 30,317 32,136

Imports 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Imports Sales - EGP MN 8 9 9 10 11

Total Revenues 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Total Revenues - EGP MN 2,760 3,429 3,958 4,579 5,099

Local Market - EGP MN 2,539 3,086 3,562 4,029 4,487

% of Total Revenues 92% 90% 90% 88% 88%

Export Sales- EGP MN 221 343 396 549 612

% of Total Revenues 8% 10% 10% 12% 12%

-

Page 26: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

25

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

SOURCE: PRIME ESTIMATES

- COGS:

2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Raw Materials - EGP Mn 1,317 1,570 1,826 2,123 2,276

% of COGS 77% 76% 75% 75% 75%

Raw Materials / Ton 9,500 9,799 10,073 10,314 10,563

% Imported Raw Materials 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%

Imported Raw Materials / Ton 1,892 1,962 2,002 2,001 2,000

Price per Ton in USD 217 219 224 228 233

Imported Raw Materials Price per Ton in EGP 1,892 1,962 2,002 2,001 2,000

% Locally Sourced Materials 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%

Locally Sourced Raw Materials - Price Per Ton 7,608 7,836 8,071 8,314 8,563

2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Labor - EGP Mn 144 183 222 269 302

% of COGS 8% 9% 9% 10% 10%

Labor per Ton 1,038 1,142 1,222 1,308 1,399

2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Utilities - EGP Mn 39 52 67 82 91

% of COGS 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%

Utilities per Ton 280 322 371 397 425

2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Depreciation - EGP Mn 78 103 122 131 143

% of COGS 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

Depreciation per Ton 314 314 314 314 314

2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

Others - EGP Mn 141 164 188 215 228

% of COGS 8% 8% 8% 8% 7%

Others per Ton 1,015 1,025 1,035 1,046 1,056

Total COGS (Including Depreciation) 1,718.7 2,072.2 2,424.2 2,819.7 3,039.6

Total COGS (Excluding Depreciation) 1,641.0 1,969.0 2,302.5 2,688.9 2,896.8

-

Page 27: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

26

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

Stock Recommendation Guidelines

Recommendation Target-to-Market Price (x)

Buy x > 15%

Accumulate 5%< x <15%

Hold -5% < x < 5%

Reduce -15% < x < -5%

Sell x < -15%

Strong Buy x > 40%

Investment Grade Explanation

Growth 3 Yr. Earnings CAGR > 20%

Value Equity Positioned Within Maturity Stage of Cycle

Speculative Quality Earnings Reflect Above Normal Risk Factor

Page 28: Edita Food Industries - Re-initiation of Coverage - August 2016

27

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH EDITA FOOD INDUSTRIES– RE-INITIATION OF COVERAGE

AUGUST, 2016

PRIME SECURITIES

Hassan Samir Managing Director +202 3300 5611 [email protected]

RESEARCH TEAM

Aboubakr Emam, CFA Manager +202 3300 5724 [email protected]

Eman Negm, MSc Economist +202 3300 5716 [email protected]

Mohamed Marei Equity Analyst +202 3300 5725 [email protected]

Ali Afifi Equity Analyst +202 3300 5723 [email protected]

Omneya El Hammamy Equity Analyst +202 3300 5718 [email protected]

Ingy Fahmy Equity Analyst +202 3300 5722 [email protected]

Mohamed Magdi Junior Equity Analyst +202 3300 5720 [email protected]

SALES TEAM

Mohamed Ezzat Head of Sales & Branches +202 3300 5784 [email protected]

Shawkat Raslan Heliopolis Branch Manager +202 3300 5110 [email protected]

Amr Saber Team Head – Institutions Desk +202 3300 5659 [email protected]

Amr Alaa, CFTe Manager +202 3300 5609 [email protected]

Mohamed Elmetwaly Manager +202 3300 5610 [email protected]

Emad Elsafoury Manager +202 3300 5624 [email protected]

HEAD OFFICE

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