eden pps6 3 times pt jo ocleto

Workshop EDEN PPS6 – 28 Março 2007 - FEUP

Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente


Workshop EDEN PPS6Portuguese energy system scenarios for 2030 and Greenhouse

Gas emissions using TIMES_PT

28 Março 2007

Sala de Actos da FEUP

João CletoDepartamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente

FCT - Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

UNL - Universidade Nova de Lisboa

DCEA-FCT/UNL


Overview

• TIMES_PT

– Structure and information sources

– Objective Function for optimization

– Model Inputs: primary energy potentials, technologies databases (costs,

efficiencies and availability of electricity generation technologies), etc

• Energy Scenarios 2000-2030

– Energy Consumption (total, sector, electricity generation)

– Technologies profile

• Analysis of CO2e Abatement Scenarios 2000-2030


TIMES_PT

Structure, Inputs and Outputs, Information Sources


Dynamic model of linear optimization, that configures the energy system in

such way as to minimize the net total cost of the system, while satisfying a

number of constrains of the demand

TIMES Model

Objective function –

maximization of total surplus (the step function allows the

optimization through linear

programming)

Analyze the system behaviour over a

certain period of time and assume

that the energy markets are in perfect

competition and the agents have a

perfect knowledge of his evaluation

Assume a linear behavior

between the outputs and inputs

(However, does not mean that production

functions behave in a linear fashion)


Objective Function (Minimization of Total System Costs)

Discounted sum of the annual costs minus revenues:+ Investment costs+ Costs for sunk material during construction time+ Variable costs + Fix operating and maintenance costs+ Surveillance costs + Decommissioning costs+ Taxes

- Subsidies- Recuperation of sunk material- Salvage value

NPV: net present value of the total costs

ANNCOST: Total annual cost

d: general discount rate

REFYR: reference year for discounting

YEARS: set of years for which there are costs (all years

in the horizon + past years if costs have been defined for

past investments + a number of years after the life time of the technology if some investment and dismantling

cost are still being incurred, as well as the Salvage Value


Reference energy system in TIMES_PT

Technologies or Processes

Commodities

CommodityFlow


Base Model Structure – Main Sectors

Refinery, imports and

renewable energy

Electricity

Transports

Industry

Households,

Commercial and

Agriculture


Main Information Sources in TIMES_PT

General Structure• Economic Sectors

• Existing Technologies/Processes (aggregation level)

• Processes flow

Technologies• Standard information

technologies description (Ex: mass balances)

• Stocks (Ex: installed capacity)

• Efficiency

• Availability factor

• Input/Output ratio

• Specific Parameters (Ex: CHPR)

Energy Balance • Demand division

• Load Diagram (timeslices)

DGGE & Eurostat Energy Balances

ADENE (EURECO Project)

DGGE

National Emissions Inventory

INE

EDP, PEGOP, Turbogás, Valorsul, Cogen, EDM, EDA (…)

PTEN

PNAC

Studies and Publications (...)

NEEDS with minor adjustments/corrections

NEEDS with minor adjustments/corrections


TIMES_PTExogenous Inputs:

Energy services demand, New energy technologies, primary energy potential, policy assumptions


Model Structure: Exogenous Inputs and Outputs


Demand Growth

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ind

ex (

2000=

100)

% year (2005-2010 / 2010-2030)

Space Cool. (4,5% / 3,9%)

Glass (2,5% / 1,9%)

tkm (2,6% / 1,8%)

Clinker (2,0% / 1,5%)

Pulp (1,6% / 1,0%)

Iron & Steel (1,0% / 0,3%)

Water Heat (1,1% / 0,5%)pkm (0,7% / 0,4%)Space Heat (0,8% / 0,5%)


Primary Energy Potentials in TIMES_PT

Best guess2 (+100%)0.0Wind offshore (GW)

Extrapolation of Renewable

Energy in Portugal Forum38 (+98%)0.8Solar- heating (PJ)

Best guess2 (+100%)0.0Solar-electricity generation (GW)


Energy Portugal Forum8 (+93%)0.6Geothermal (PJ)

Extrapolation of PNAC Waste

scenarios10 (+27%)7.3Municipal Waste (PJ)

Conservative assumption based

on REN5 (+98%)0.6Wind onshore (GW)

Assumed a maximum growth 30%

of 2000 capacity100 (+28%)71.7Wood Products (PJ)

GPPAA & Extrapolation of PNAC

Waste Scenarios29 (+100%)0.1Biogas (PJ)


Energy Portugal Forum15 (+100%)0.0Crops for Biofuel (PJ)

Cruz, J., Sarmento, A. (2004).

Energia das Ondas

Assumed a maximum growth of

35% of 2000 capacity

Best guess

Best guess based on 2008

expected installed capacity

Reference

2 (+100%)0.0Industrial Waste – Sludge (PJ)

5 (+100%)0.0Waves (GW)

55 (+35%)40.2Hydro (PJ)

50 (+100%)0.0Biofuel production (PJ)

20302000


Energy Scenarios 2000 - 2030

Base Scenario


TIMES_PT Base Scenario - main policy assumptions

��Limits on CHP (industry: +50% in 2020)

��No credits from Kyoto mechanisms

��No new Coal Power Plants before 2015 & no increase in coal in final sectors

��Use existing natural gas power plants & at least new 200 MW in 2010-2030

��Biofuel targets for 2010 (5.75%)

��Minimum use of Municipal Waste & Wood Waste

��

��

��

��

(27% above 1990 levels in 2010-2030)

Base Scenario

Min. 39% of the electricity consumed in 2010 is from renewable sources

Limited electricity imports (+100% 2005) and exports (+100% 2000)

Nuclear is not an option

CO2 eq. emissions restrictions


Energy Scenario 2000 - 2030

Final Energy Consumption - Industry: Base Scenario

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000K 2005K 2010K 2015K 2020K 2025K 2030K

Fin

al

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

PJ)

Coal Petroleum products Gas Electricity Heat Renewables Waste Others (Methanol, Hydrogen)


Energy Scenario 2000 - 2030

Final Energy Consumption - Transports: Base Scenario

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000K 2005K 2010K 2015K 2020K 2025K 2030K

Fin

al E

nerg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

PJ)

Diesel Gasoline Heavy Fuel Oil

Kerosene - Jet Fuels LPG Electricity

Renewables Others (Methanol, Hydrogen, DME)


Net Electricity Generation 2000 - 2030

Tecnologias de Geração de Electricidade

0

25

50

2000K 2005K 2010K 2015K 2020K 2025K 2030K

Ne

t e

lec

tric

ity

ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

)

Coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Others CHP - Natural Gas, H2, biomass


Analysis of CO2e Abatement Scenarios for 2030

CO2 emission restrictions Scenarios


GHG Emissions

10, 20 e 30% abaixo das emissões de 1990 em vigor a partir de

2020 e 39% da electricidade consumida em 2010 é de fonte

renovável

-10%, -20%, -30%

20, 10 e 0% acima das emissões de 1990 em vigor a partir de

2020 e 39% da electricidade consumida em 2010 é de fonte

renovável

+20%, +10%, 0%

27% acima das emissões de 1990 em vigor a partir de 2010 e

39% da electricidade consumida em 2010 é de fonte renovávelQuioto

RestriRestriRestriRestriççççõesõesõesõesCenCenCenCenááááriorioriorio


Electricity Generation Technologies Profile:2020

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00

CO2eq - 10%

CO2eq - 20%

CO2eq - 30%

CO2eq 0%

CO2eq +10%

CO2eq +20%

Quioto

Elect ricidade gerada em 2020 (PJ)

Steam Turb Coal Ex CHP SteamTurb IndCoal Comb Cyc Gas Ex

Comb Cyc Gas New CHP FuelCell Gas IntCombOil Ex

CHP Ind HFO Ex Steam Turb Waste Ex CHP SteamTurb Waste

Hydro Ex Hydro New CHP Ind IPH Biof Ex

CHP IntComb Biogas CHP FuelCell H2 CHP IntComb Ind Oil New

CHP Ind Biom Ex Wind Onshore Wind Offshore

% Electricidade

renovável

55%

60%

64%

63%

67%

64%

63%


Residential Heating Tecnologies: 2020

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

CO2eq -30%

CO2eq -20%

CO2eq -10%

CO2eq 0%

CO2eq + 10%

CO2eq + 20%

Quioto

Aque cim e nto de e spa ço no se ctor r e side ncia l e m 2 0 2 0 ( PJ)

Oil boiler Electr ic stove Electr ic Heat Pum p LPG Heat Pum p

Wood therm ofireplace Solar / elc Solar / diesel Distr ict heating

53% Biomassa+solar

52% Biomassa+solar

52% Biomassa+solar

51% Biomassa+solar

50% Biomassa+solar

48% Biomassa+solar

27% Biomassa+solar


CO2e Abatement Costs

Marginal Abat ement Curve for CO2

3.796.67

9.1912.96

17.92

24.90

50.16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Quioto 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

€/t

CO

2


[email protected] - João Cleto

[email protected] - Sofia Simões

http://air.dcea.fct.unl.pt/projects/e2pol/

Telf: 212 948 300 ext. 10180

eden pps6 3 times pt jo ocleto

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