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Economics of global warming

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The economics of global warming refers to theprojected size and distribution of the economic costs andbenefits of global warming, and to the economic impactsof actions aimed at the mitigation of global warming.Estimates come from a variety of sources, including

integrated assessment models, which seek to combinesocio-economic and biophysical assessments of climatechange.

At an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) conference in April 2007, delegates from 120nations discussed the specific economic and societalcosts of mitigating global warming, and eventually

approved the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report[2].

Contents

1 Economic impacts of global warming1.1 Effects on agriculture

1.2 Insurance1.3 Infrastructure1.4 Investment1.5 Migration1.6 Northwest Passage1.7 Development1.8 Environmental

1.8.1 Water scarcity1.9 Health

1.9.1 Direct effects of temperaturerise1.9.2 Spread of disease

2 Contamination by sector and cost of reducingfossil fuel use3 Mitigation and adaptation

3.1 Cost estimates

3.2 Benefits4 Optimal strategies for mitigation5 Cost distribution6 Inter-relationships

6.1 Between countries6.2 Gradual change vs climate surprises

7 References8 See also9 External links

Economic impacts of global warming

Many estimates of aggregate net economic costs of projected damages and benefits from climate changeacross the globe are now available. These are often expressed in terms of the social cost of carbon (SCC),the aggregate of future net benefits and costs, due to global warming from carbon dioxide emissions, thatare discounted to the present. Peer-reviewed estimates of the SCC for 2005 have an average value of US$43 per tonne of carbon (tC) (i.e., US$12 per tonne of carbon dioxide, tCO2) but the range around this

mean is large. For example, in a survey of 100 estimates, the values ran from US$-10 per tonne of carbon

(US$-3 per tonne of carbon dioxide) up to US$350/tC (US$95 per tonne of carbon dioxide.) [3]

One of the most widely noted projections on this issue is the Stern Review, a 2006 report [4] by the formerChief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank Nicholas Stern, predicts that climate change

will have a serious impact on economic growth without mitigation. [5] The report suggests that aninvestment of one percent of global GDP is required to mitigate the effects of climate change, with failure

to do so risking a recession worth up to twenty percent of global GDP. [6] The Stern Review has beencriticized by some economists, saying that Stern did not consider costs past 2200, that he used an incorrectdiscount rate in his calculations, and that stopping or significantly slowing climate change will require deep

emission cuts everywhere.[7] Other economists have supported Stern's approach [8] [9], or argued that

Stern's estimates are reasonable, even if the method by which he reached them is open to criticism. [10].

Research by Harvard Economist Martin Weitzman has suggested that structural uncertainty and low-probability high-impact risks are very important, and that "the influence on cost-benefit analysis of fat-tailed structural uncertainty about climate change, coupled with great unsureness about high-temperature

damages, can outweigh the influence of discounting or anything else". [11][12]

As recent estimates of the rate of global warming

have increased, so have the financial estimates of

the damage costs; alternatively, the Stern Review

is an outlier. [1]

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Venture capitalists and other investors have noted potential opportunities arising from global warming, asmassive sums of money are needed for enhanced infrastructure as well as clean technologies that could helpreduce emissions of global warming gases. AsJoel Makower, a noted expert on business and theenvironment, has pointed out, "For all the handwringing over the negative bottom-line impacts of climatechange for most companies, a handful of large corporate interests may come out winners, creatingpotentially profitable opportunities for forward-thinking investors." These include companies investing inclean energy technologies such as solar energy and wind power, but also companies in other sectors:agriculture (to produce biofuels as well as biobased plastics that supplant petroleum-based ones),information technology companies (producing switches, routers, and software intended to create a moreefficient, "smart grid", chemical companies (producing "green chemistry" alternatives to petrochemicals),and producers of more efficient motors for aircraft, automobiles, and industrial use.

Migration

Some Pacific Ocean island nations, such as Tuvalu, are concerned about the possibility of an eventualevacuation, as flood defense may become economically inviable for them. Tuvalu already has an ad hoc

agreement with New Zealand to allow phased relocation.[23]

In the 1990s a variety of estimates placed the number of environmental refugees at around 25 million.(Environmental refugees are not included in the official definition of refugees, which only includesmigrants fleeing persecution.) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which advises theworld’s governments under the auspices of the UN, estimated that 150 million environmental refugees willexist in the year 2050, due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural

disruption (150 million means 1.5% of 2050’s predicted 10 billion world population). [24][25]

Northwest Passage

Melting Arctic ice may open the Northwest Passage insummer, which would cut 5,000 nautical miles (9,000km) from shipping routes between Europe and Asia.This would be of particular relevance for supertankerswhich are too big to fit through the Panama Canal andcurrently have to go around the tip of South America.According to the Canadian Ice Service, the amount of ice in Canada's eastern Arctic Archipelago decreased by

15% between 1969 and 2004.[26]

While the reduction of summer ice in the Arctic may bea boon to shipping, this same phenomenon threatens theArctic ecosystem, most notably polar bears whichdepend on ice floes. Subsistence hunters such as theInuit peoples will find their livelihoods and cultures

increasingly threatened as the ecosystem changes due toglobal warming.

Development

The combined effects of global warming may impact particularly harshly on people and countries withoutthe resources to mitigate those effects. This may slow economic development and poverty reduction, and

make it harder to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.[27][28]

In October 2004 the Working Group on Climate Change and Development, a coalition of development andenvironment NGOs, issued a report Up in Smoke (http://www.iied.org/pubs/display.php?o=9512IIED) onthe effects of climate change on development. This report, and the July 2005 report Africa - Up in Smoke?(http://www.iied.org/pubs/display.php?o=9560IIED) predicted increased hunger and disease due todecreased rainfall and severe weather events, particularly in Africa. These are likely to have severe impactson development for those affected.

At the same time, in developing countries, the poorest often live on flood plains, because it is the onlyavailable space, or fertile agricultural land. These settlements often lack infrastructure such as dykes andearly warning systems. Poorer communities also tend to lack the insurance, savings or access to credit

needed to recover from disasters.[29]

Environmental

Secondary evidence of global warming — reduced snow cover, rising sea levels, weather changes —provides examples of consequences of global warming that may influence not only human activities butalso ecosystems. Increasing global temperature means that ecosystems may change; some species may beforced out of their habitats (possibly to extinction) because of changing conditions, while others mayflourish. A 2004 study published in Nature estimates that between 15 and 37% of known plant and animal

species will be 'committed to extinction' by 2050.[30] Few of the terrestrial ecoregions on Earth couldexpect to be unaffected.

Increasing carbon dioxide may increase ecosystems' productivity to a point. Ecosystems' unpredictableinteractions with other aspects of climate change makes the possible environmental impact of this unclear,though. An increase in the total amount of biomass produced may not be necessarily positive: biodiversitycan still decrease even though a relatively small number of species are flourishing.

Arctic ice thicknesses changes from 1950s to

2050s simulated in one of GFDL's R30

atmosphere-ocean general circulation modelexperiments

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_circulation_modelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geophysical_Fluid_Dynamics_Laboratoryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Arctic_Ice_Thickness.gifhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomasshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_changehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiversityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-Thomas2004-29http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecosystemhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Specieshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_risk_from_climate_changehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nature_(journal)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrestrial_ecoregionshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-28http://www.iied.org/pubs/display.php?o=9560IIEDhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Working_Group_on_Climate_Change_and_Development&action=edit&redlink=1http://www.iied.org/pubs/display.php?o=9512IIEDhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-governmental_organizationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitigation_of_global_warminghttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-26http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Development_Goalshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-27http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_reductionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_developmenthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inuithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supertankerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Canalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nautical_milehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctichttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-25http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Arctic_Archipelagohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passagehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Canadian_Ice_Service&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugeehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-24http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-23http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Environmental_refugee&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_populationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-22http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Oceanhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuvaluhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealandhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_energyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_powerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joel_Makowerhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_gridhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofuelshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_chemistry


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Water scarcity

Positive eustasy (sea-level rise) may contaminate groundwater, affecting drinking water and agriculture incoastal zones. Increased evaporation will reduce the effectiveness of reservoirs. Increased extreme weathermeans more water falls on hardened ground unable to absorb it, leading to flash floods instead of areplenishment of soil moisture or groundwater levels. In some areas, shrinking glaciers threaten the water

supply.[31] The availability of freshwater runoff from mountains for natural systems and human uses may

also be impacted.[32]

Higher temperatures will also increase the demand for water for the purposes of cooling and hydration.

In the Sahel, there has been on average a 25% decrease in annual rainfall over the past 30 years.

Health

Direct effects of temperature rise

Rising temperatures have two opposing direct effects on mortality: higher temperatures in winter reducedeaths from cold; higher temperatures in summer increase heat-related deaths.

The distribution of these changes obviously differs. Palutikof et al. calculate that in England and Wales fora 1 °C temperature rise the reduced deaths from cold outweigh the increased deaths from heat, resulting ina reduction in annual average mortality of 7000. However, in the United States, only 1000 people die from

the cold each year, while twice that number die from the heat. [33] The 2006 United States heat wave haskilled 139 people in California as of 29 July 2006. [Deaths of livestock have not been well-documented.]

Fresno, in the central California valley, had six consecutive days of 110 degree-plus Fahrenheittemperatures. [34]

The European heat wave of 2003 killed 22,000–35,000 people, based on normal mortality rates (Schär andJendritzky, 2004). It can be said with 90% confidence that past human influence on climate was responsiblefor at least half the risk of the 2003 European summer heat-wave (Stott et al 2004).

Spread of disease

Global warming is expected to extend the favourable zones for vectors conveying infectious disease such as

malaria.[35] In poorer countries, this may simply lead to higher incidence of such diseases. In richercountries, where such diseases have been eliminated or kept in check by vaccination, draining swamps andusing pesticides, the consequences may be felt more in economic than health terms, if greater spending on

preventative measures is required.[36]

Contamination by sector and cost of reducing fossil fuel use

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions depends in part on lowering consumption of fossil fuels. The keychallenge is that nearly all forms of economic activity rely on fossil fuel energy sources, from transportationfuel, electricity from coal-fired plants, industrial furnaces to home and office heating. Reducing emissionscan be achieved through gains in efficiency - producing the same benefits with smaller amounts of fossilenergy, or by displacing fossil sources with non- or low-emitting sources. Low emission renewable energysources such as wind, solar and biomass still represent only a small fraction of total energy consumption [2](http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/renewableenergy.htm) . The scale of current fossil energydependence poses a substantial challenge. Gaining energy efficiency typically requires up-front investment,such as adding insulation, replacing energy-inefficient devices and processes, or buying hybrid vehicles.Some such investments can pay for themselves in the savings on energy bills, and the economic case forchoosing them depends on the payback period. If an upgrade's payback is better than the risk-free interestrate, economic theory predicts individuals will choose the higher return of making the efficiency investment[3] (http://www.eere.energy.gov/consumer/your_home/insulation_airsealing/index.cfm/mytopic=11360) . If

current pricing is not leading to this outcome, the cost of fossil energy is not yet high enough to driveadoption of available efficiency gains. (Social science researchers Kurani and Turrentine reported(http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/publications/2004/UCD-ITS-RR-04-31.pdf) in 2004 that consumers often failto make choices that have favorable payback period. They attribute the "uneconomic" choices to riskaversion, weighing potential losses much higher than potential gains.)

Advocates of mitigating climate change hold that greenhouse gas emissions must carry a price, so themarket can internalize the externality of the impact of their emission. This could take the form of a carbontax or of emission caps, with a market created for trading emission permits, much as was done in the USAfor sulfate emissions blamed for acid rain. Thus the economic impact of avoiding greenhouse gas emissionsdepends on how much consumption will have to be avoided, and how quickly the economy can incorporateefficiency gains.

Some pundits have criticized such attempts at calculating the costs of mitigating climate change byavoiding fossil fuel consumption, pointing out that the opportunity costs of avoiding consumption are not(and cannot) be calculated and are likely to be more important than the expected benefits [4]

(http://georgereisman.com/blog/2006/11/britains-stern-review-on-global.html) [5](http://www.reason.com/news/show/116401.html) .

Many estimates of aggregate net economic costs of damages from climate change across the globe (i.e., the

http://www.reason.com/news/show/116401.htmlhttp://georgereisman.com/blog/2006/11/britains-stern-review-on-global.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_costhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externalityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_taxhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_caphttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acid_rainhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_tradinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_efficiencyhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/renewableenergy.htmhttp://www.eere.energy.gov/consumer/your_home/insulation_airsealing/index.cfm/mytopic=11360http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Payback_periodhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversionhttp://www.its.ucdavis.edu/publications/2004/UCD-ITS-RR-04-31.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malariahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-34http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccinationhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infectious_diseasehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-35http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_(biology)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_heat_wave_of_2003http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fresno,_Californiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-33http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_United_States_heat_wavehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fahrenheithttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-32http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deathhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahelhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-30http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundwaterhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eustasyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-31http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surface_runoff


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social cost of carbon (SCC), expressed in terms of future net benefits and costs that are discounted to thepresent) are now available. Peer-reviewed estimates of the SCC for 2005 have an average value of US$43per tonne of carbon (tC) (i.e., US$12 per tonne of carbon dioxide) but the range around this mean is large,primarily due to the variation in discount rates used. For example, in a survey of 100 estimates, the valuesran from US$-10 per tonne of carbon (US$-3 per tonne of carbon dioxide) up to US$350/tC (US$95 per

tonne of carbon dioxide.)[3]

Mitigation and adaptation

See also: Adaptation to global warming

The costs of mitigating (reducing) global warming depend on a number of factors. One fundamental factoris the target level of atmospheric carbon dioxide: the lower the level, the sooner action must be taken if increases beyond the target level are to be avoided. The sooner action must be taken, the shorter the periodover which costs must be spread, and the higher the absolute costs, as cheaper technologies which mightemerge later are not yet available. A common target level (assumed by the United Kingdom) is 550ppm(current levels are around 380ppm, and rising at 2-3ppm per year). Signatories of the Kyoto Protocolcommitted themselves to targets that require lowering their national greenhouse gas emissions to a specifiedlevel relative to their actual 1990 emissions. Many nations set targets to reach a small percentage below1990 levels, during the target period for Kyoto of 2008-2012.

Another crucial factor in estimating the costs of climate change is the discount rate to apply. Normally arelatively high rate (e.g. 5%-10%) is applied, reflecting the cost of capital. However, whereintergenerational issues involve potential irreversibilities such as climate change, a low discount rate (e.g.1%-4%) may be applied. The difference is dramatic: at 4% (a typical rate for social issues), avoiding $1mworth of climate change damage in 100 years' time is valued at nearly $20,000 today (net present value),

whereas at 8% it is valued at less than $500.

Another area for debate is the relationship between technological development and regulatory incentives: if regulation can induce substantial technological change, the costs of mitigation may be much lower.

Cost estimates

IPCC TAR (Synthesis Report) suggested values of $78bn to $1141bn annual mitigation costs, amounting to0.2% to 3.5% of current world GDP (which is around $35 trillion), or 0.3% to 4.5% of GDP if borne by therichest nations alone. As economic growth is expected to continue, the percentage would fall. In terms of

cost per tonne of carbon emission avoided, the range (for a target of 550ppm) is $18 to $80.[37]

These cost estimates refer to reductions achieved through tradable emissions permits when those permits aregiven away to polluters. If the reductions are achieved through emission taxes or auctioned permits, and therevenue is used to reduce distortionary taxes, the TAR III synthesis report concludes that "[depending] onthe existing tax structure, type of tax cuts, labour market conditions and method of recycling... it is possible

that the economic benefits may exceed the costs of mitigation." Nordhaus and Boyer calculated that thepresent value cost of the Kyoto Protocol would be $800 billion to $1,500 billion if implemented asefficiently as possible. Richard Tol estimates that the net present value cost to be more than $2.5 trillion.

Azar and Schneider (2002)[38] observe that global output in 1990 was around $20 trillion. If it grew steadilyat 2.1 percent per annum it would be just short of $200 trillion by 2100. They thereby make the point thatthe calculated present value costs of mitigation would look smaller if scaled against 2100 output than if scaled against 1990 output. However, neither comparator is relevant to the question of whether the likelybenefits from mitigation exceed the costs.

A 2008 study, not peer-reviewed, by the consulting company McKinsey Global Institute uses cost curveanalysis to estimate that it is possible to stabilize global greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 to 500 ppm

CO2-e with macroeconomic costs in the order of 0.6-1.4% of global GDP by 2030. [39]

Lord Peter Levene, chairman of Lloyd's of London, said on 12 April 2007 that the threat of climate change

must be an integral part of every company’s risk analysis.[40]

Benefits

Nordhaus and Boyer estimated that the present value of benefits from mitigation under the Kyoto Protocol

would be $120 billion, far below the likely costs. "Other studies reach similar conclusions".[41] Richard Tolconcludes that "the emissions targets agreed in the Kyoto Protocol are irreconcilable with economicrationality."

However, the Stern Review produced much larger benefit estimates, of between 5 per cent and 20 per centof GDP. The difference reflected a number of factors, the most important of which were the choice of discount rate, the use of welfare weighting for effects on people in poor countries, a greater weight ondamage to the natural environment and the use of more up-to-date scientific estimates of likely damage.

In addition to avoiding the costs of the business-as-usual scenario, mitigation actions can bring otherbenefits, depending on factors such as the technology used. These include, for example, the reduced

economic impact from oil supply disruptions and/or price rises, if mitigation reduces oil dependence. Thismay be of particular benefit to non-oil-exporting developing countries, which suffer greater economicimpact from oil price rises. [6] (http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=5164&method=full) Co-benefits from ending deforestation include protection of biodiversity, benefits

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developing_countryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserveshttp://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=5164&method=fullhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stern_Reviewhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-40http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Tolhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Levene,_Baron_Levene_of_Portsokenhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_12http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd%27s_of_Londonhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-39http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_curvehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-38http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McKinsey_%26_Companyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Present_valuehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-37http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocolhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Tolhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_economicshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_cuthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-36http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growthhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technologyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_changehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_issueshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_present_valuehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discount_ratehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdomhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocolhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptation_to_global_warminghttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Economics_of_global_warming&printable=yes#cite_note-autogenerated1-2


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for indigenous people, research and development possibilities, tourism, and some protection from extremeweather events. (Stern Review, page 280)

Optimal strategies for mitigation

Financial and technological strategies can have a major impact on reaching a particular target atmosphericgreenhouse gas concentration.

Carbon taxCarbon emissions tradingA hybrid between a carbon tax and an emissions trading scheme, this can be thought of as anemissions trading scheme with a price cap, a price floor, or both. A price cap can be realized bygovernments being able to sell an unlimited amount extra permits at a given price (the price of the

cap)[42]. A price floor can be realized by governments buying back permits if the price goes belowthe value of the floor, or by emitters paying a fee when they exercise the permit (so the effectivecarbon price is equal to the sum of the permit price and the exercise fee).RegulationReducing the carbon intensity of energy via Nuclear power or Renewable EnergyEnergy efficiency

"No regrets" policies - notably reducing fossil fuel subsidies, which is predicted to increase growth whilstreducing CO2 emissions. Article 2 of the Kyoto Protocol specifies a progressive removal of subsidies andreform of taxes as a means of achieving reduction commitments. [7](http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/58/50/29173911.pdf)

McKibbin and Wilcoxen[43] argue that a combination of long term carbon price signals and short termscaps on economic cost is needed to address both economic efficiency, equity sharing and political

feasibility.

The Stern Review recommends adopting a quantative global stabilisation target range for the stock of greenhouse gases as a foundation for policy. It suggests that this target range would be likely to besomewhere between 450-550 ppm CO2-e. It also recommends a carbon price signal through the use of a

carbon tax or emissions trading scheme.

Brink et al (2005) showed that the costs of mitigation can be reduced by considering the inter-relationshipsof different greenhouse gas, and the differential impact that different technological decisions may have on

their emissions.[44]

Cost distribution

The costs and benefits of global warming are distributed quite unequally.

low-lying countries' risk of floodsmany countries subject to increased drought are poor African countriesability of poor countries to mitigate / adapt (margin)GW increases variability of weather, which implies greater capital requirements for water storagesystems, flood defenses, etc as well as individual requirements to cope with wider variation inweather patterns

The costs of mitigation may also be distributed unequally, both within and between countries. [8]

(http://www.earth.columbia.edu/about/director/pubs/jeem2002.pdf) Wier et al (2005)[45] showed that carbontaxes, particularly direct taxes on households, are regressive (more so than VAT), suggesting that in order tomaintain social acceptance the regressive effect needs to be compensated for either within theenvironmental tax structure, or in other parts of the tax system. Indirect taxes (on business) are lessregressive, and petrol taxes are found to be progressive.

Inter-relationships

Between countries

Bastianoni et al (2004)[46] note the differences between methodologies for assigning responsibility forgreenhouse gas emissions, which include the geographical approach, based on the IPCC guidelines forGHG inventory; the consumer responsibility approach, based on the Ecological Footprint methodology; andthe Carbon Emission Added (CEA) approach, which resembles the accounting of a Value Added Tax.Different methodologies can produce quite different results in terms of responsibility for emissions, withconsequent impact on policy.

Gradual change vs climate surprises

Baranzini et al (2003)[47] conclude that "(i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process islikely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standardCBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policiesas their net discounted benefits increase significantly."

References

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1. ' ^ Adapted from a portion of Figure 1 in Tol and Yohe (2006) "A Review of the Stern Review" World

Economics '7(4): 233-50.

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19. ' ^ Choi, O. and Fisher, A. (2003) "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe

Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S."

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2): 149-170

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24. ^ Hidden statistics: environmental refugees (http://www.risingtide.nl/greenpepper/envracism/refugees.html)

25. ^ Hidden statistics: environmental refugees

(http://web.archive.org/web/20050223042051/http://www.risingtide.nl/greenpepper/envracism/refugees.html)26. ^ Washington Times - Northwest Passage redux (http://www.washingtontimes.com/specialreport/20050612-

123835-3711r.htm)

27. ^ pagecover4_final.p65 (http://www.odi.org.uk/iedg/publications/climate_change_web.pdf)

28. ^ Independent Online Edition - Africa News - Independent.co.uk

(http://news.independent.co.uk/world/africa/story.jsp?story=648282)

29. ^ World Bank Group | Climate Change

(http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/ESSD/envext.nsf/46ParentDoc/ClimateChange?Opendocument)

30. ^ Thomas, C.D.; Cameron, A.; Green, R.E.; Bakkenes, M.; Beaumont, L.J.; Collingham, Y.C.; Erasmus, B.F.N.;

Siqueira, M.F.D.; Grainger, A.; Hannah, L. (2004). "Extinction risk from climate change" (PDF). Nature 427

(6970): 145–148. doi:10.1038/nature02121. Retrieved on 2008-04-15.

31. ^ Kazakhstan: glaciers and geopolitics | openDemocracy (http://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-

climate_change_debate/kazakhstan_2551.jsp)

32. ^ http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2002/UNEP114.doc.html

33. ^ Health | Climate Change - Health and Environmental Effects | U.S. EPA

(http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/health.html)

34. ^ http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-heat29.html

35. ^ Health hazard | Environment | The Guardian(http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1517940,00.html)

36. ^ From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age

(http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol6no1/reiter.htm)

37. ^ House of Lords, 6 July 2005, The Economics of Climate Change

(http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/House_of_Lords/economics_of_climate_change.pdf) , House of Lords, Select

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38. ^ Christian Azar and Stephen H. Schneider (2002) "Are the economic costs of stabilising the atmosphere

prohibitive?" (http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20076/shseconomic.pdf) , Ecological Economics 42 (1-2)

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Evidence from the Danish experience", Ecological Economics 52(2)

46. ^ Simone Bastianoni, Federico Maria Pulselli and Enzo Tiezzi (2004), "The problem of assigning responsibility

for greenhouse gas emissions", Ecological Economics 49(3)

47. ^ Andrea Baranzini, Marc Chesney and Jacques Morisset (2003), "The impact of possible climate catastrophes on

global warming policy" (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?

_ob=IssueURL&_tockey=%23TOC%235713%232003%23999689991%23390543%23FLA%23&_auth=y&view=c&_acct=C000049044&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=946889&md5=d7f5

, Energy Policy 31(8)

See also

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change

Stern ReviewLow-carbon economyList of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warmingCooler Heads CoalitionCopenhagen Consensus

External links

Pew Center on Global Climate Change: Economics of global warming(http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-in-depth/economics/)Brookings Institution: Global climate change project(http://www.brookings.edu/es/research/projects/glclimate/glclimate.htm)Resources for the Future: WeatherVane (http://www.weathervane.rff.org/)Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Working Group 2 (http://www.ipcc.ch/about/working-group2.htm)Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Working Group 3 (http://www.ipcc.ch/about/working-

group3.htm)

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