economic update kevin lings economist november 2013
TRANSCRIPT
Economic UpdateKevin LingsEconomistNovember 2013
4.9 4.55.2 5.4
2.8
-0.6
5.3
3.93.2 2.9
3.6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
(%y/y)
World GDP growth (IMF)
3.6%Oct‘12
4.6%Oct‘12
3
GDP growth in emerging vs advanced economies
% q/q, saar (dashed lines are 2010/2012 averages)
Emerging markets
Advanced economies
United States GDP performance
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
122
124
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Index, Q1 2006 = 100
US
-22
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
%y/y
US leading indicator
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
US$ trillion
US statutory limit on Federal Debt
US debt ceiling
US government debt
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$ billion$ billion
US Federal Reserve Total Assets
QE 1QE 2
QE 3
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
%y/y%y/y
Euro-area leading indicator
Euro-area: economic sentiment indicator
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Index, 100 = average
Core of Euro-area
Periphery of Euro-area
99
101
103
105
107
109
111
113
115
117
119
121
123
125
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Index Q1 2006 = 100
Euro-area GDP index (real) vs US real GDP index
USA GDP
Euro-area GDP
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013% unemployed
Youth unemployment rate in Germany
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
% unemployed
Youth unemployment rate in Greece
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
2010 2011 2012 2013
%
Developed vs Emerging market inflation rate
Emerging markets
Developed markets
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%
US consumer inflation
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%
Euro-area
Consumer inflation in the Euro-area
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010
2011
2012
2013%y/y
Japan consumer inflation rate
2% target set in Jan 2013
Headline inflation
Core inflation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
07 08 09 10 11 12 13
%
UK
Euro-area
US
Euro-area, US, Japan and UK official interest rates
Japan
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
%, y/y, real terms
China real GDP growth
China rebalancing needed
303132333435363738394041424344454647484950
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
% of total China GDP
Fixed investment activity
Consumer activity
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
%y/y
Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
AngolaEquatorial Guinea
EthiopiaRwanda
ChadNigeria
MozambiqueSierra Leone
GhanaTanzania
UgandaDRC
ZambiaBurkina Faso
South Africa
%y/y, real GDP growth, average over 10 years
Sub-Saharan Africa fastest growing economiesPast 10 years
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
% of GDP
Sub-Saharan Africa Government Debt as % of GDP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$ billion
Sub-Saharan Africa net foreign direct investment
South Africa’s international perception
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
%, q/q, 4-quarter moving average, real
SA consumer disposable income
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
%, q/q, 4-quarter moving average, real
Consumer incomeConsumer spending
SA consumer spending vs disposable income
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Index
SA manufacturing activity vs retail activity
SA retail activity
SA manufacturing activity
SA economic recovery has been consumption based, rather than production based
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
% of total
SA manufacturing production as % of GDP
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Rbn
SA trade balance – 12 month moving average
% over past three months. Personal loans
SA growth in consumer unsecured credit
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2011 2012 2013
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Index
SA consumer confidence (BER)
SA formal sector employment
8.00
8.10
8.20
8.30
8.40
8.50
8.60
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
MillionStill 75 000 formal sector jobs below the peak
485
490
495
500
505
510
515
520
525
530
535
540
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Thousands
SA mining employment
-17-15-13-11
-9-7-5-3-113579
11131517192123
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
%q/q, annualised
Growth in fixed investment spending
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25%y/y%y/y
OECD leading indicator vs SA leading indicator
OECD leading indicator (lhs)
SA leading indicator (rhs)
%y/y%y/y
SA exports to Africa
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
R billion, 6-month moving average
SA exports more to Africa than to North and South America combined
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
R Billions
SA travel receipts
World Soccer Cup 2010
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
R Billions
SA net travel account
Building plans passed – residential sector
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Rbn, constant prices, 12-month moving average
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
% y/y
SA headline CPI forecast
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
%
SA Interest Rate Forecast
Prime rate
Repo rate