economic update - jsu 2019 - use this one.pdf · economic update (northeast alabama regional...

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ECONOMIC UPDATE (Northeast Alabama Regional Economic Indicators)

March 2019

Center for Economic Development and Business Research

School of Business and Industry

Jacksonville State University

700 Pelham Road North

Jacksonville, Alabama 36265

Phone: 256-782-5324

Website: jsu.edu/ced

2

Table of Contents

Introduction: Welcome and Background 5

Contact Information 6

Workforce - Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment 7

Blount County 8

Calhoun County 9

Cherokee County 10

Clay County 11

Cleburne County 12

DeKalb County 13

Etowah County 14

Marshall County 15

Randolph County 16

St. Clair County 17

Talladega County 18

Region Outlook 19

Sales Tax 20

Blount County 21

Calhoun County 22

Cherokee County 23

Clay County 24

Cleburne County 25

DeKalb County 26

Etowah County 27

Marshall County 28

Randolph County 29

St. Clair County 30

Talladega County 31

Region Outlook 32

3

Lodging Tax 33

Blount County 34

Calhoun County 35

Cherokee County 36

Clay County 37

Cleburne County 38

DeKalb County 39

Etowah County 40

Marshall County 41

Randolph County 42

St. Clair County 43

Talladega County 44

Region Outlook 45

Housing - Average Home Price 46

Blount County 47

Calhoun County 48

Cherokee County 49

Clay County 50

Cleburne County 51

DeKalb County 52

Etowah County 53

Marshall County 54

Randolph County 55

St. Clair County 56

Talladega County 57

Region Outlook 58

4

Housing - Average Sold Price 59

Blount County 60

Calhoun County 61

Cherokee County 62

Clay County 63

Cleburne County 64

DeKalb County 65

Etowah County 66

Marshall County 67

Randolph County 68

St. Clair County 69

Talladega County 70

Region Outlook 71

Gasoline - Average Sales Price 72

Blount County 73

Calhoun County 74

Cherokee County 75

Clay County 76

Cleburne County 77

DeKalb County 78

Etowah County 79

Marshall County 80

Randolph County 81

St. Clair County 82

Talladega County 83

Region Outlook 84

Seasonal Feature – Esri Region Outlook 85

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Introduction

Welcome to the March 2019 edition of the Jacksonville State University (JSU) Economic Update. Our

goal is to be a continual source of county level data for economic developers, government policy makers, and

business analysts to consider when evaluating the economic potential of northeast Alabama. Local and regional

economic indicators are considered across an eleven-county area and are analyzed within several reference

periods. The economic areas examined include civilian labor force and unemployment, sales and lodging taxes,

price and sales trends within housing industry, and gasoline price trends. Counties analyzed are Blount, Calhoun,

Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega. A measure of annualized

volatility is included for each economic category. Volatility levels are assigned as higher, moderate, or lower in

analyzing data variability.

For the reference period of January through December 2018, the civilian labor force expanded at an

annualized trend of 0.28 percent in the region and no change for the state. Over twelve months, average

unemployment rate was again unchanged at 3.9 percent for both the region and state. Unemployment rate

from November to December 2018 increased by 0.10 percent in the region and declined by 0.20 percent

statewide.

Trends in sales and lodging tax collected are reported for reference period of January through June 2018.

Sales tax collection increased by 1.65 percent for region and by 3.86 percent for the state in the full reference

period, respectively. Collection decreased by 2.30 percent and increased by 3.79 percent, respectively, over the

most recent three-month trend measured from April through June 2018. Similarly, lodging tax collection

increased by 15.81 percent in the region and by 17.11 percent for the state, in the full reference period, and

increased by 4.10 percent and by 23.06 percent, respectively, for the most recent three-month trend for each

category. Sales and lodging tax collection reflect relatively moderate volatility; each measure of tax collection

is highly seasonal and may not reflect year to year trend.

For the full reference period trend of September 2018 through February 2019, average home price (AHP)

decreased by 2.52 percent for the region but increased by 1.58 percent for the state, while average sold price

(ASP) decreased by 1.38 percent in the region. In the December 2018 through February 2019 reference period

trend, AHP plummeted by 8.75 percent in the region but expanded by 0.16 percent for the state, while ASP

dropped by 4.13 percent in the region. In February 2019 there were 643 homes for sale in the region, an

increase of 17 homes since January. For February 2019 AHP was $136,636 for the region and $212,700 for the

state, while ASP declined to $133,156 in the region. State ASP data were not available during the reference

periods.

Gasoline prices are analyzed for county, region, state, and nation. After a downward trend, prices

increased slightly from January to February 2019 for each category analyzed. Highest gasoline prices were

recorded in October 2018 and lowest prices in January 2019 for each reference period.

Sincerely,

Benjamin Boozer, Editor

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Dr. Benjamin B. Boozer, Jr., Associate Professor of Finance, Editor

Email: [email protected]

Mrs. Amy A. Simon, Research Analyst, Assistant Editor


Ms. Jennifer Green, Director, Center for Economic Development and Business Research


Dr. William T. Fielding, Dean, School of Business and Industry


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Workforce- Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rate

The analysis to follow considers county civilian labor force data and county, region, and state

unemployment rates for reference months of January 2018 through December 2018. A twelve-month average

is also included for each variable. Workforce analysis consists of the civilian labor force measured in relation to

the unemployment rate for each county in the coverage area (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne,

DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties), the region as an average of each county

in the coverage area, and for the state overall.

An analysis summary considers the twelve months of the reference period and measures the rate of

change in the civilian labor force for that geographic area. Positive values indicate an increasing civilian labor

force trend within the reference period, while negative values reflect a declining trend. Monthly unemployment

volatility for county, region, and state is annualized to reflect standard deviation from an expected value.

Unemployment volatility is a relative measure of labor force stability, with values of 1.40 percent to 1.80 less

labor market variance. Increases or decreases in each variable considered, civilian labor force and

unemployment percent subjectively considered as moderate volatility and values lower than or equal to and

higher than or equal to that range indicative of lower and higher levels of volatility, respectively. Lower volatility

levels reflect rates, and directional changes for the current reporting month from the prior month are expressed

in the analysis.

The civilian labor force is the sum of civilian employment and civilian unemployment. These individuals

are civilians (not members of the armed services) who are at least sixteen years of age and not institutionalized

and are otherwise eligible to work. From the measure of the civilian labor force it is possible to calculate the

labor participation rate as the active portion of an economy’s labor force that is either working or actively

looking for a job. Otherwise that person is not part of the labor force and is neither counted as employed or

unemployed. An increasing civilian labor force reflects that more people are entering or re-entering the labor

force, an indication of economic strength.

County unemployment data are not seasonally adjusted, while State of Alabama data are seasonally

adjusted. The major difference is that non-seasonally adjusted data exacerbate seasonal effects. From the

information provided it is possible to calculate the employment rate as 100 percent minus the unemployment

rate. Thus, if an unemployment rate for an area is 5 percent, for example, 95 percent of the civilian labor force

is working. A key concern is that during periods of economic slowdown eligible workers leave the labor force

and no longer look for work, thereby reducing the overall rate of labor force participation.

Workforce is an economic indicator that shows the degree which workers are participating and to what

extent those workers are unable to find employment. Labor force participation rates are positively associated

with general economic trends, while the unemployment rate is countercyclical and is inversely associated with

economic trends. Higher levels of labor force participation and lower levels of unemployment indicate a stronger

economy. Analyzing county data along with the region and state offers relative comparison.

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2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

23,400

23,600

23,800

24,000

24,200

24,400

24,600

24,800

25,000

25,200

25,400

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18

Un

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eBlount County

Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate

Source: Alabama Department of Labor

County Civilian Labor Force County Region State

12 Month Average 24,840 3.5% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 24,665 3.2% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 24,981 3.1% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 25,112 3.5% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 25,024 3.5% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 24,972 3.8% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 25,281 3.8% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 25,257 4.5% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 24,844 3.3% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 24,732 3.1% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 24,577 3.4% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 24,524 3.7% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 24,115 3.6% 4.1% 3.7%

Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate

Blount County, Region, & State

Reference Month

Unemployment Rate


Labor Force County Region State

Labor Force Growth Trend 0.22%

Unemployment Volatility N/A Lower Moderate Lower

Reference Period: Nov 18 - Dec 18

Change

Civilian Labor Force & Unemployment Rate Summary

Unemployment Rate

N/A

Reference Period: Jan 18 - Dec 18

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3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

44,000

44,500

45,000

45,500

46,000

46,500

47,000

47,500


Un

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Civ

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orc

eCalhoun County




12 Month Average 46,193 4.7% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 46,185 4.1% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 46,366 4.0% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 46,275 4.5% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 46,056 4.5% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 46,354 4.9% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 46,808 5.2% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 47,029 5.8% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 46,221 4.5% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 46,226 4.2% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 45,998 4.5% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 45,700 5.0% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 45,094 4.7% 4.1% 3.7%

Unemployment Rate

Reference Month

Calhoun County, Region, & State





Unemployment Volatility N/A Moderate Moderate Lower


Change


Unemployment Rate

N/A


10

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

10,400

10,600

10,800

11,000

11,200

11,400

11,600

11,800


Un

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Civ

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orc

eCherokee County




12 Month Average 11,329 3.7% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 11,365 3.2% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 11,563 3.2% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 11,636 3.4% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 11,620 3.4% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 11,528 3.8% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 11,280 4.0% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 11,455 4.9% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 11,271 3.4% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 11,217 3.1% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 11,140 3.5% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 11,053 4.0% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 10,818 3.9% 4.1% 3.7%

Reference Month

Unemployment Rate

Cherokee County, Region, & State







Change

N/A



Unemployment Rate

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3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

5,300

5,400

5,500

5,600

5,700

5,800

5,900

6,000

6,100

6,200


Un

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eClay County




12 Month Average 5,936 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 5,954 3.6% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 6,039 3.6% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 6,111 4.0% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 6,116 3.8% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 6,010 4.2% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 5,997 4.2% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 6,016 4.7% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 5,919 3.5% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 5,829 3.5% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 5,835 4.4% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 5,788 4.1% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 5,617 4.1% 4.1% 3.7%

Reference Month

Unemployment Rate

Clay County, Region, & State







Change

N/A



Unemployment Rate

12

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

5,300

5,400

5,500

5,600

5,700

5,800

5,900

6,000


Un

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Civ

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Lab

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eCleburne County




12 Month Average 5,710 4.3% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 5,646 3.8% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 5,704 3.6% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 5,748 3.9% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 5,833 4.3% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 5,750 4.5% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 5,958 4.9% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 5,858 5.4% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 5,716 4.1% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 5,621 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 5,579 4.1% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 5,567 4.5% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 5,544 4.6% 4.1% 3.7%

Reference Month

Unemployment Rate

Cleburne County, Region, & State







Change

N/A



Unemployment Rate

13

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

26,500

27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

31,000


Un

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Civ

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Lab

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orc

eDeKalb County




12 Month Average 29,814 3.8% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 29,659 3.3% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 30,249 3.2% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 30,524 3.5% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 30,677 3.4% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 30,213 3.8% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 30,599 4.0% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 30,654 5.7% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 29,658 3.5% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 29,337 3.3% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 29,138 3.9% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 29,009 4.1% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 28,049 4.2% 4.1% 3.7%

Reference Month

Unemployment Rate

DeKalb County, Region, & State





Unemployment Volatility N/A Higher Moderate Lower


Change

N/A



Unemployment Rate

14

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

41,000

41,500

42,000

42,500

43,000

43,500

44,000

44,500


Un

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Civ

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Lab

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eEtowah County




12 Month Average 43,234 4.1% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 43,327 3.7% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 43,331 3.6% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 43,567 4.0% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 43,229 3.9% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 42,944 4.3% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 43,545 4.5% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 43,931 5.1% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 43,378 3.9% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 43,349 3.6% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 43,120 4.0% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 42,813 4.5% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 42,272 4.3% 4.1% 3.7%

Reference Month

Unemployment Rate

Etowah County, Region, & State







Change

N/A



Unemployment Rate

15

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

40,000

40,500

41,000

41,500

42,000

42,500

43,000

43,500


Un

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Civ

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eMarshall County




12 Month Average 42,605 3.4% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 42,433 3.0% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 42,953 2.9% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 43,245 3.3% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 43,112 3.3% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 42,811 3.5% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 43,167 3.7% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 43,185 4.3% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 42,562 3.2% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 42,420 3.0% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 42,128 3.3% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 41,903 3.7% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 41,341 3.6% 4.1% 3.7%

Reference Month

Unemployment Rate

Marshall County, Region, & State







Change

N/A



Unemployment Rate

16

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8,900

9,000

9,100

9,200

9,300

9,400

9,500

9,600

9,700

9,800


Un

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Civ

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eRandolph County




12 Month Average 9,557 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 9,436 3.6% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 9,556 3.5% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 9,661 4.0% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 9,664 3.9% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 9,542 4.4% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 9,643 4.4% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 9,683 5.0% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 9,530 3.8% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 9,638 3.5% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 9,608 3.9% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 9,547 4.2% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 9,173 4.2% 4.1% 3.7%

Randolph County, Region, & State


Reference Month

Unemployment Rate






Change

N/A



Unemployment Rate

17

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

37,500

38,000

38,500

39,000

39,500

40,000

40,500


Un

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Civ

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eSt. Clair County




12 Month Average 39,548 3.5% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 39,594 3.2% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 39,855 3.1% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 39,898 3.4% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 39,529 3.4% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 39,619 3.7% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 40,011 3.8% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 40,102 4.4% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 39,563 3.3% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 39,467 3.1% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 39,226 3.5% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 39,140 3.8% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 38,576 3.7% 4.1% 3.7%

Reference Month

Unemployment Rate

St. Clair County, Region, & State







Change

N/A



Unemployment Rate

18

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

33,000

33,500

34,000

34,500

35,000

35,500

36,000

36,500


Un

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eTalladega County




12 Month Average 34,972 4.3% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 35,020 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 35,704 3.6% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 35,910 4.0% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 35,480 3.9% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 35,384 4.4% 3.9% 4.1%

July 2018 35,258 4.7% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 35,523 5.3% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 34,998 4.0% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 34,209 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 34,052 4.3% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 33,983 4.8% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 34,144 4.6% 4.1% 3.7%

Reference Month

Unemployment Rate

Talladega County, Region, & State






Change

N/A




Unemployment Rate

19

13.1%

13.2%

13.3%

13.4%

13.5%

13.6%

13.7%


2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

Reg

ion

Lab

or

Forc

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elat

ive

to S

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Un

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Region vs. State of Alabama

Region Unemployment Rate State Unemployment Rate Region Labor Force Relative to State


Region State Region to State Region State

12 Month Average 293,738 2,188,260 13.4% 3.9% 3.9%

December 2018 293,284 2,204,278 13.3% 3.5% 3.8%

November 2018 296,301 2,215,688 13.4% 3.4% 4.0%

October 2018 297,687 2,212,672 13.5% 3.8% 4.1%

September 2018 296,340 2,208,177 13.4% 3.8% 4.1%

August 2018 295,127 2,203,282 13.4% 4.1% 4.1%

July 2018 297,547 2,196,505 13.5% 4.3% 4.1%

June 2018 298,693 2,187,423 13.7% 5.0% 4.1%

May 2018 293,660 2,177,094 13.5% 3.7% 3.9%

April 2018 292,045 2,169,509 13.5% 3.5% 3.8%

March 2018 290,401 2,162,897 13.4% 3.9% 3.8%

February 2018 289,027 2,160,917 13.4% 4.3% 3.7%

January 2018 284,743 2,160,683 13.2% 4.1% 3.7%

Reference Month

Unemployment Rate


Region & State

Civilian Labor Force


Region State Region State

Labor Force Growth Trend 0.28% 0.00

Unemployment Volatility Moderate Lower

Change

N/A

Labor Force




N/A

Unemployment Rate

20

Sales Tax

Sales tax data are provided and analyzed for a six-month reference period of January 2018 through June

2018 for each county and selected city(s). Region data are offered relative to each county and as a comparison

to state data on the final chart. Sales tax collection is analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are

identified within the entire six-month reference period for the region and each local variable, county and

selected city(s) within the county; trend in increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the

entire reference period and the most recent three months; and directional changes from prior month to most

recent month reported. Trend values reflect rate of change of sales tax collection within each respective

reporting period. Volatility indicates the extent of retail sales stability and is expressed as an annualized

standard deviation of monthly variances in collection. Higher sales tax collection volatility denotes a less stable

retail trade environment, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest that retail trade trends

experience less fluctuation. Trend values and volatility offer strong measures of relative comparison.

Sales taxes collected are a measure of consumer spending and retail sector economic activity. The

relationship between sales taxes collected and economic activity is positive; that is, a stronger economy

produces more commerce, higher consumer spending on goods, and thus taxes collected. A weaker economy

is characterized by less consumer spending and sales tax revenues. Seasonal effects will occur and have a major

impact on this variable as the Christmas holiday season is a strong driver of consumer spending. Some counties

may have more retail trade and some less, but the trend within the county reflects the directional strength of

the retail economy for that county. With consumer spending comprising approximately 70 percent of U.S. Gross

Domestic Product this is an important economic indicator to capture that aspect of the economy.

Sales taxes are tallied for each county and for selected cities within each county (Blount, Calhoun,

Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) and averaged

for each county across the region. With each county including various numbers of cities, we standardize sales

tax reporting for the region to include a summation of each county. Region and state cross sectional and time

series comparisons offer further insight into relative retail activity. Sources of data are respective county and

city administrations in addition to the Alabama Department of Revenue (ADOR) and Revenue Discovery Systems

(RDS).

Sales tax data are reported independently for each city, county, and state. Data do not reflect all cities

within a county, but rather a representative sample. County sales tax data consist of that portion of sales taxes

collected and remitted to the county. These taxes are not a summation of selected city sales tax values but are

rather to be considered as a separate measure of sales tax revenue. Region sales taxes represent an average of

county sales taxes within the reference area. We do not include city or other jurisdictional entities in this data

to standardize an average that would apply to each county. Our analysis does not include all cities in each

county, but rather selected city(s). Therefore, a more accurate depiction of region economic activity is an

average of county sales tax data, which applies to each county.

We are reliant upon various sources to supply sales tax data. A database of current sales tax data is not

available to access. There is also a lag associated with collection and reporting of this economic indicator that

could affect the availability of the data for some reference months.

21

$300,000

$375,000

$450,000

$525,000

$600,000

$675,000

$750,000

$825,000

$900,000

$300,000

$375,000

$450,000

$525,000

$600,000

$675,000

$750,000

$825,000

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18

Sale

s Ta

x

Sale

s Ta

x


Oneonta $436,614 $349,359 $356,274 $429,584 $378,602 $439,971

County $701,787 $695,909 $647,890 $815,541 $769,461 $830,349

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

Blount County

Oneonta County Region*

Source: RDS (Blount County and Oneonta)

*Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages,

city or other county jurisdiction data are not included.

Region County Oneonta

High Apr-18 Jun-18 Jun-18

Low Feb-18 Mar-18 Feb-18

Trend 1.65% 4.00% 1.34%

Volatility Lower Moderate Moderate

Trend -2.30% 0.90% 1.20%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate

Change

Tax Collection Summary: Sales Tax

Blount County

Reference Period: Jan 18 - Jun 18

Reference Period: Apr 18 - Jun 18

Reference Period: May 18 - Jun 18

Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do

not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each

variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: “Higher” as greater than or equal to 100 percent; “Moderate” as 40 percent to

less than 100 percent; and “Lower” as less than 40 percent.

22

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000


Sale

s Ta

x

Sale

s Ta

x


Oxford $2,345,620 $2,298,198 $2,744,896 $2,401,516 $2,503,669 $2,635,916

Anniston $1,786,478 $1,308,819 $1,418,061 $1,698,909 $1,544,669 $1,665,596

Jacksonville $550,920 $559,972 $606,801 $593,404 $613,485 $609,222

County $1,436,841 $1,271,641 $1,292,590 $1,460,196 $1,308,526 $1,400,288

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

Calhoun County

Oxford Anniston Jacksonville County Region*

Source: ADOR (Jacksonville and Oxford); City of Anniston (Anniston); and RDS (Calhoun County)



Region County Anniston Jacksonville Oxford

High Apr-18 Apr-18 Jan-18 May-18 Mar-18

Low Feb-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Feb-18

Trend 1.65% 0.23% 0.94% 2.18% 2.04%

Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Lower Moderate

Trend -2.30% -2.07% -0.99% 1.32% 4.77%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Lower Lower

Change


Calhoun County




Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end points do not necessarily

reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility

levels are subjectively assigned as follows: “Higher” as greater than or equal to 100 percent; “Moderate” as 40 percent to less than 100 percent; and “Lower” as less

than 40 percent.

23

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000


Sale

s Ta

x

Sale

s Ta

x


Centre $156,222 $124,475 $133,968 $158,236 $143,543 $161,731

County $464,106 $431,208 $429,129 $516,693 $468,958 $509,125

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

Cherokee County

Centre County Region*

Source: RDS (Centre and Cherokee County) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages,


Region County Centre

High Apr-18 Apr-18 Jun-18

Low Feb-18 Mar-18 Feb-18

Trend 1.65% 2.61% 2.22%

Volatility Lower Lower Moderate

Trend -2.30% -0.74% 1.10%


Change


Cherokee County








24

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

$70,000

$75,000

$80,000


Coun

ty &

Reg

ion

Sale

s Ta

x

City

Sal

es T

ax


Ashland $59,781 $66,597 $75,306 $67,214 $72,138 $74,836

Lineville $57,896 $62,757 $59,379 $66,410 $61,507 $62,095

County $97,635 $108,440 $106,317 $117,090 $107,085 $111,291

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

Clay County

Ashland Lineville County Region*

Source: ADOR (Ashland) and RDS (Clay County and Lineville)



Region County Ashland Lineville

High Apr-18 Apr-18 Mar-18 Apr-18

Low Feb-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18

Trend 1.65% 2.06% 3.63% 1.15%

Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Lower

Trend -2.30% -2.51% 5.52% -3.30%

Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Lower

Change


Clay County








25

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$0

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

$125,000

$150,000


Coun

ty &

Reg

ion

Sale

s Ta

x

City

Sal

es T

ax


Heflin $78,667 $122,814 $93,728 $104,847 $107,658 $110,427

County $95,741 $143,656 $104,260 $119,698 $112,510 $124,667

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

Cleburne County

Heflin County Region*

Source: RDS (Cleburne County and Heflin)



Region County Heflin

High Apr-18 Feb-18 Feb-18

Low Feb-18 Jan-18 Jan-18

Trend 1.65% 2.09% 4.12%

Volatility Lower Higher Moderate

Trend -2.30% 2.05% 2.63%

Volatility Moderate Lower Lower

Change


Cleburne County








26

$0

$4,250

$8,500

$12,750

$17,000

$21,250

$25,500

$0

$150,000

$300,000

$450,000

$600,000

$750,000

$900,000

$1,050,000

$1,200,000


Sale

s Ta

x -M

ento

ne

Sale

s Ta

x -O

ther

Ent

itie

s


Fort Payne $857,543 $898,508 $1,088,733 $985,876 $1,087,391 $1,100,970

Mentone $10,721 $11,770 $9,992 $10,055 $9,854 $14,374

County $597,582 $505,406 $496,309 $580,912 $540,139 $585,131

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

DeKalb County

Fort Payne Mentone County Region*

Source: ADOR (Fort Payne); DeKalb County (DeKalb); and RDS (Mentone)



“Other Entities” consist of Fort Payne, County, and Region.

Region County Fort Payne Mentone

High Apr-18 Jan-18 Jun-18 Jun-18

Low Feb-18 Mar-18 Jan-18 May-18

Trend 1.65% 0.72% 5.04% 2.72%

Volatility Lower Moderate Moderate Moderate

Trend -2.30% 0.36% 5.68% 19.56%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower Moderate

Change


DeKalb County








27

$0

$350,000

$700,000

$1,050,000

$1,400,000

$1,750,000

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000


Sale

s Ta

x -O

ther

Ent

itie

s

Sale

s Ta

x -G

adsd

en


Gadsden $2,870,745 $2,368,017 $2,320,574 $2,725,717 $2,336,325 $2,546,190

Rainbow City $381,737 $365,123 $436,180 $437,054 $448,781 $438,141

Glencoe $87,253 $93,833 $123,822 $108,605 $114,359 $111,147

County $925,522 $785,930 $766,171 $902,247 $798,082 $866,673

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

Etowah County

Gadsden Rainbow City Glencoe County Region*

Source: ADOR (Rainbow City); City of Glencoe (Glencoe); and RDS (Etowah County and Gadsden)



“Other Entities” consist of Glencoe, Rainbow City, County, and Region.

Region County Gadsden Glencoe Rainbow City

High Apr-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18

Low Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-18 Jan-18 Feb-18

Trend 1.65% -0.34% -1.36% 4.89% 3.81%

Volatility Lower Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Trend -2.30% -1.99% -3.35% 1.16% 0.12%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Lower Lower

Change

Etowah County








than 40 percent.

28

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000


$400,000

$550,000

$700,000

$850,000

$1,000,000

$1,150,000

$1,300,000Sa

les

Tax

-Cou

nty

Sale

s Ta

x -O

ther

Ent

itie

s


Albertville $1,249,149 $949,121 $1,036,125 $1,240,644 $1,011,014 $1,173,264

Guntersville $1,012,713 $956,000 $871,756 $1,085,338 $1,009,864 $1,144,735

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

County $100,188 $95,819 $91,774 $103,756 $107,189 $115,561

Marshall County

Albertville Guntersville Region* County

Source: RDS (Albertville, Guntersville, and Marshall County)



Region County Albertville Guntersville

High Apr-18 Jun-18 Jan-18 Jun-18

Low Feb-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Mar-18

Trend 1.65% 3.41% 0.16% 2.89%

Volatility Lower Lower Moderate Moderate

Trend -2.30% 5.54% -2.75% 2.70%

Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Moderate

Change

Marshall County









29

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000


Coun

ty &

Reg

ion

Sale

s Ta

x

City

Sal

es T

ax


Roanoke $260,188 $225,603 $221,376 $262,755 $241,640 $255,714

Wedowee $72,849 $80,151 $68,859 $85,052 $84,223 $87,909

County $304,788 $300,653 $371,966 $359,580 $374,882 $374,371

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

Randolph County

Roanoke Wedowee County Region*

Source: ADOR (Randolph County) and RDS (Roanoke and Wedowee)



Region County Roanoke Wedowee

High Apr-18 May-18 Apr-18 Jun-18

Low Feb-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Mar-18

Trend 1.65% 4.85% 0.83% 3.78%

Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Moderate

Trend -2.30% 2.04% -1.35% 1.67%

Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Moderate

Change





Randolph County





30

$0

$250,000

$500,000

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000

$1,500,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

$1,300,000

$1,400,000

$1,500,000

$1,600,000


Sale

Tax

-M

oody

& R

egio

n

Sale

s Ta

x -O

ther

Ent

itie

s


Pell City $957,942 $1,526,885 $1,525,052 $1,503,835 $1,504,515 $1,456,043

Moody $290,105 $279,973 $332,298 $330,329 $328,118 $317,099

County $1,218,116 $901,879 $935,405 $1,112,459 $1,036,377 $1,081,949

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

St. Clair County

Pell City Moody County Region*

Source: ADOR (Moody); City of Pell City (Pell City); and St. Clair County (St. Clair) *Region data represent an average of county sales tax collected for the eleven counties analyzed. To compare county trends and standardize averages,


“Other Entities” consist of Pell City, County, and Region.

Region County Moody Pell City

High Apr-18 Jan-18 Mar-18 Feb-18

Low Feb-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 Jan-18

Trend 1.65% -0.01% 2.65% 5.99%

Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Higher

Trend -2.30% -1.38% -2.02% -1.60%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower Lower

Change


St. Clair County








31

$0

$250,000

$500,000

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000

$0

$250,000

$500,000

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000


Sale

s Ta

x

Sale

s Ta

x


Talladega $847,756 $685,121 $697,969 N/A N/A N/A

Sylacauga $488,659 $505,862 $607,095 $585,084 $574,329 $535,212

Lincoln $237,926 $240,891 $293,781 $292,702 $269,415 $282,017

County $632,307 $694,260 $827,679 $1,050,294 $785,968 $814,246

Region* $597,692 $539,527 $551,772 $648,951 $582,653 $619,423

Talladega County

Talladega Sylacauga Lincoln County Region*

Source: ADOR (Lincoln, Sylacauga, and Talladega County) and City of Talladega (Talladega)


city or other county jurisdiction data are not included. Talladega sales tax data not provided for April 2018 – June 2018; values are represented as N/A.

Region County Lincoln Sylacauga Talladega

High Apr-18 Apr-18 Mar-18 Mar-18 Jan-18

Low Feb-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Feb-18

Trend 1.65% 5.50% 3.44% 2.31% N/A

Volatility Lower Moderate Lower Moderate N/A

Trend -2.30% -11.95% -1.84% -4.36% N/A

Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower Lower N/A

Change N/A

Talladega County








than 40 percent. Talladega sales tax data not provided for April 2018 – June 2018.

32

$150,000,000

$160,000,000

$170,000,000

$180,000,000

$190,000,000

$200,000,000

$210,000,000

$220,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,750,000

$5,000,000

$6,250,000

$7,500,000

$8,750,000

$10,000,000


Stat

e Sa

les T

ax

Regi

on S

ales

Tax


Region Sales Tax* $6,574,613 $5,934,801 $6,069,489 $7,138,465 $6,409,178 $6,813,651

State Sales Tax $162,019,013 $182,644,478 $212,693,172 $188,250,743 $203,510,749 $202,780,432

Region & State

Region Sales Tax* State Sales Tax

Source: ADOR; RDS; and Self-Collecting Cities/Counties

*Region Sales Tax is a summation of each individual county sales tax collected within the eleven-county region. This measure does not contain city or

other jurisdictional data for the county.

Region State

High Apr-18 Mar-18

Low Feb-18 Jan-18

Trend 1.65% 3.86%

Volatility Lower Moderate

Trend -2.30% 3.79%

Volatility Moderate Lower

Change




Region & State






33

Lodging Tax

Lodging tax data are provided and analyzed for a six-month reference period of January 2018 through

June 2018 for each county and selected city(s). Region data are offered relative to each county and as a

comparison to state data on the final chart. Lodging tax collection is analyzed as follows: monthly high and low

values are identified within the entire six-month reference period for the region and each local variable, county

and selected city(s) within the county; trend in increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the

entire reference period and the most recent three months; and directional changes from prior month to most

recent month reported. Trend values reflect rate of change of lodging tax collection within each respective

reporting period. Volatility indicates the extent of lodging stability and is expressed as an annualized standard

deviation of monthly variances in collection. Higher lodging tax collection volatility denotes a higher variation in

the level of lodging activity, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest less fluctuation. Trend values

and volatility offer strong measures of relative comparison.

The relationship between lodging taxes collected and economic activity is positive; that is, a stronger

economy produces a higher need for lodging and thus more taxes are collected. Some counties may have more

need for lodging and some less, but the trend within the county reflects the directional strength of the economic

activity for that county. A strong basis for including lodging taxes in this publication is as a measure of tourism

activity. Seasonal effects will occur with this variable, especially for counties that are destination driven for

tourists at various times of the year.

Lodging taxes are collected for selected cities within each county of the coverage area (Blount, Calhoun,

Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) and averaged

for each county. Region and state cross sectional and time series comparisons provide further insight into

relative economic activity. Sources of data are respective county and city administrations in addition to the

Alabama Department of Revenue (ADOR) and Revenue Discovery Systems (RDS).

Lodging tax data are reported independently for each city, county, and state. Data for each selected city

in a county do not reflect all cities within that county, but rather a representative sample. County lodging tax

data consist of that portion of lodging taxes remitted to the county. These taxes are not a summation of selected

city lodging taxes but are rather a separate measure of lodging tax revenue. Region lodging taxes represent an

average of county lodging taxes within the reference area. We do not include city or other jurisdictional entities

in order to standardize an average that would apply to each county in the area of analysis. Our analysis does

not include all cities in each county, but rather selected city(s). Therefore, a more accurate depiction of region

economic activity is an average of county lodging tax data, which applies to each county.

We are reliant upon various sources to supply lodging tax data. A database of current lodging tax data

is not available to access. There is also a lag associated with payment and reporting of this economic indicator

that could affect the availability of the data for some reference months.

34

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000


Lodg

ing

Tax

Lodg

ing

Tax


Oneonta $1,632 $1,041 $2,263 $2,364 $2,118 $2,267

County N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

Blount County

Oneonta County Region*

Source: RDS (Blount County and Oneonta)

*Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in

calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons.


High Jun-18 N/A Apr-18

Low Jan-18 N/A Feb-18

Trend 15.81% N/A 11.53%

Volatility Moderate N/A Higher

Trend 4.10% N/A -2.07%

Volatility Moderate N/A Lower

Change N/A




Tax Collection Summary: Lodging Tax

Blount County




less than 100 percent; and “Lower” as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Blount County; values

expressed as N/A.

35

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$0

$40,000

$80,000

$120,000

$160,000

$200,000


Lodg

ing

Tax

-Oth

er E

ntit

ies

Lodg

ing

Tax

-Oxf

ord


Oxford $86,281 $99,502 $130,977 $166,891 $153,822 $148,593

Anniston $7,921 $8,850 $8,607 $13,983 $18,859 $19,584

Jacksonville $9,895 $9,434 $13,846 $20,687 $17,860 $17,413

County $15,219 $22,110 $18,029 $27,422 $31,081 $34,407

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

Calhoun County

Oxford Anniston Jacksonville County Region*

Source: ADOR (Jacksonville and Oxford); City of Anniston (Anniston); and RDS (Calhoun County)



“Other Entities” consist of Anniston, Jacksonville, County, and Region.


High Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Apr-18 Apr-18

Low Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Jan-18

Trend 15.81% 17.08% 23.13% 15.83% 12.97%

Volatility Moderate Higher Higher Moderate Moderate

Trend 4.10% 12.01% 18.35% -8.25% -5.64%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Higher Higher Moderate

Change

Calhoun County








than 40 percent.

36

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000


Lodg

ing

Tax

Lodg

ing

Tax


Centre $1,694 $594 $2,003 $1,796 $1,506 $1,347

County $3,411 $3,111 $6,196 $10,887 $9,619 $10,697

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

Cherokee County

Centre County Region*

Source: RDS (Centre and Cherokee County) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in



High Jun-18 Apr-18 Mar-18

Low Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-18

Trend 15.81% 31.80% 4.49%

Volatility Moderate Higher Higher

Trend 4.10% -0.88% -13.40%

Volatility Moderate Higher Lower

Change

Cherokee County









37

$0

$2,500

$5,000

$7,500

$10,000

$12,500

$15,000

$17,500

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200


Coun

ty &

Reg

ion

Lodg

ing

Tax

City

Lod

ging

Tax


Ashland N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Lineville $106 $0 $0 $167 $0 $0

County N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

Clay County

Ashland Lineville County Region*

Source: ADOR (Ashland) and RDS (Clay County and Lineville)



Ashland and Clay County do not collect lodging tax. Values are represented as N/A.


High Jun-18 N/A N/A Apr-18

Low Jan-18 N/A N/A Feb-18

Trend 15.81% N/A N/A N/A

Volatility Moderate N/A N/A N/A

Trend 4.10% N/A N/A N/A

Volatility Moderate N/A N/A N/A

Change N/A N/A





Clay County




less than 100 percent; and “Lower” as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Ashland and Clay County;

values expressed as N/A. Irregular data collection for Lineville are represented as N/A.

38

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400


Coun

ty &

Reg

ion

Lodg

ing

Tax

City

Lod

ging

Tax


Heflin $0 $1,299 $706 $829 $962 $923

County $3,187 $4,404 $3,978 $5,208 $6,298 $7,759

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

Cleburne County

Heflin County Region*

Source: RDS (Cleburne County and Heflin)




High Jun-18 Jun-18 Feb-18

Low Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18

Trend 15.81% 17.99% N/A

Volatility Moderate Higher N/A

Trend 4.10% 22.06% 5.52%

Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate

Change

Cleburne County









39

$0

$7,500

$15,000

$22,500

$30,000

$37,500

$45,000

$52,500

$0

$7,500

$15,000

$22,500

$30,000

$37,500

$45,000

$52,500


Lodg

ing

Tax

Lodg

ing

Tax


Fort Payne $26,413 $25,790 $38,029 $39,122 $48,014 $51,398

Mentone $1,890 $1,135 $1,305 $2,030 $1,785 $2,069

County $2,752 $2,411 $2,568 $3,572 $3,581 $4,317

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

DeKalb County

Fort Payne Mentone County Region*

Source: ADOR (Fort Payne); DeKalb County (DeKalb); and RDS (Mentone)




High Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18

Low Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 Feb-18

Trend 15.81% 11.37% 16.09% 6.65%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Higher

Trend 4.10% 9.93% 14.62% 0.96%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower Higher

Change




DeKalb County






40

$0

$15,000

$30,000

$45,000

$60,000

$75,000

$90,000

$0

$15,000

$30,000

$45,000

$60,000

$75,000

$90,000


Lodg

ing

Tax

Lodg

ing

Tax


Gadsden $44,857 $43,328 $48,811 $65,171 $67,441 $68,835

Rainbow City N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Glencoe N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

County $19,083 $18,459 $19,864 $27,866 $28,767 $29,303

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

Etowah County

Gadsden Rainbow City Glencoe County Region*

Source: ADOR (Rainbow City); City of Glencoe (Glencoe); and RDS (Etowah County and Gadsden) *Region data represent average lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in


Glencoe and Rainbow City do not collect lodging tax. Values are represented as N/A.


High Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 N/A N/A

Low Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb-18 N/A N/A

Trend 15.81% 11.51% 11.33% N/A N/A

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A N/A

Trend 4.10% 2.55% 2.77% N/A N/A

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A N/A

Change N/A N/A


Etowah County







than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Glencoe and Rainbow City; values expressed as N/A.

41

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$0

$15,000

$30,000

$45,000

$60,000

$75,000

$90,000


Lodg

ing

Tax

-Oth

er E

ntit

ies

Lodg

ing

Tax

-Gun

ters

ville


Guntersville $21,772 $23,173 $22,020 $60,861 $40,168 $76,213

Albertville $5,456 $5,687 $6,705 $7,931 $8,425 $8,636

County $5,802 $6,020 $6,061 $14,479 $10,979 $16,635

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

Marshall County

Guntersville Albertville County Region*

Source: RDS (Albertville, Guntersville, and Marshall County)



“Other Entities” consist of Albertville, County, and Region.


High Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18 Jun-18

Low Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18 Jan-18

Trend 15.81% 25.47% 10.97% 29.07%

Volatility Moderate Higher Lower Higher

Trend 4.10% 7.19% 4.35% 11.90%

Volatility Moderate Higher Lower Higher

Change


Marshall County








42

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000


Lodg

ing

Tax

Lodg

ing

Tax


Roanoke $3,040 $3,039 $2,733 $3,297 $3,582 $2,881

Wedowee N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

County $2,136 $1,748 $2,508 $2,550 $2,642 $3,659

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

Randolph County

Roanoke Wedowee County Region*

Source: ADOR (Randolph County) and RDS (Roanoke and Wedowee)



Wedowee does not collect lodging tax. Values are represented as N/A.


High Jun-18 Jun-18 May-18 N/A

Low Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 N/A

Trend 15.81% 11.94% 1.18% N/A

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A

Trend 4.10% 19.80% -6.53% N/A

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A

Change N/A





Randolph County




less than 100 percent; and “Lower” as less than 40 percent. With lodging tax not collected, summary analysis not available for Wedowee; values expressed

as N/A.

43

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000


Lodg

ing

Tax

Lodg

ing

Tax


Pell City $7,286 $37,955 $29,517 $35,927 $31,252 $32,891

Moody $9,578 $7,570 $11,578 $13,737 $12,587 $13,369

County $7,233 $7,864 $6,756 $13,005 $13,441 $10,600

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

St. Clair County

Pell City Moody County Region*

Source: ADOR (Moody); City of Pell City (Pell City); and St. Clair County (St. Clair)



“Other Entities” consist of Pell City, County, and Region.


High Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18 Feb-18

Low Jan-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Jan-18

Trend 15.81% 12.67% 10.09% 22.66%

Volatility Moderate Higher Moderate Higher

Trend 4.10% -9.72% -1.35% -4.32%

Volatility Moderate Higher Moderate Moderate

Change



St. Clair County







44

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000


Lodg

ing

Tax

Lodg

ing

Tax


Sylacauga $17,002 $17,814 $25,580 $24,682 $22,628 $25,213

Talladega $11,572 $15,646 $17,614 N/A N/A N/A

Lincoln $9,148 $8,635 $12,017 $16,681 $13,807 $11,837

County $14,274 $16,462 $22,368 $26,729 $24,968 $25,365

Region* $8,122 $9,177 $9,814 $14,635 $14,597 $15,860

Talladega County

Sylacauga Talladega Lincoln County Region*

Source: ADOR (Lincoln, Sylacauga, and Talladega County) and City of Talladega (Talladega)


calculation. Analysis does not include city or other jurisdictional data to standardize county trend comparisons. Talladega lodging tax data not provided

for April 2018 – June 2018; values are represented as N/A.


High Jun-18 Apr-18 Apr-18 Mar-18 Mar-18

Low Jan-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Jan-18 Jan-18

Trend 15.81% 13.08% 9.03% 7.87% N/A

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate N/A

Trend 4.10% -2.58% -15.76% 1.07% N/A

Volatility Moderate Moderate Higher Lower N/A

Change N/A


Talladega County







than 40 percent. Talladega lodging tax data not provided for April 2018 – June 2018; values are represented as N/A.

45

$0

$1,500,000

$3,000,000

$4,500,000

$6,000,000

$7,500,000

$9,000,000

$10,500,000

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000


Sta

te L

od

gin

g T

ax

Re

gio

n L

od

gin

g T

ax


Region Lodging Tax* $73,096 $82,589 $88,329 $131,717 $131,377 $142,743

State Lodging Tax $3,928,839 $4,701,351 $6,661,002 $6,251,517 $7,002,867 $9,466,804

Region & State

Region Lodging Tax* State Lodging Tax

Source: ADOR; RDS; and Self-Collecting Cities/Counties

*Region data represent lodging tax collection for nine counties; Blount and Clay County do not collect lodging tax and are not included in calculation.

This measure does not contain city or other jurisdictional data for the county.

Region State

High Jun-18 Jun-18

Low Jan-18 Jan-18

Trend 15.81% 17.11%

Volatility Moderate Moderate

Trend 4.10% 23.06%


Change




Region & State





100 percent; and “Lower” as less than or equal to 40 percent.

46

Housing- Average Home Price

For the reference period of September 2018 through February 2019, this analysis considers the average

home price by county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair,

and Talladega counties) in relation to the region average consisting of each county, and the number of homes

for sale. Comparison within these three categories offers insight into the relative strength of the housing market

on the local level compared to the state. Average home price by county and region and number of homes for

sale are analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are identified within the entire six month reference

period; trend increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the entire reference period and the

most recent three months; directional changes from prior month to most recent month reported; and home

price averages by county and region for the most recent month of the reporting period, including the number

of homes for sale.

Trend values reflect rate of change within each respective reporting period. Volatility indicates the

extent that home prices and number for sale are relatively stable and is expressed as an annualized standard

deviation of monthly variances. Higher home price volatility denotes a higher variation in pricing as a result of

market conditions, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest less fluctuation. Trend values and

volatility offer strong measures of relative comparison.

Higher average home prices are positively related to economic conditions for that geographic area.

Higher demand for housing typically reflects a stronger labor market and general economic conditions and has

an upward push on home prices. Supply of homes will usually increase under these conditions and have some

effect on limiting home price increases. The number of houses for sale is also included in the analysis. Higher

numbers of houses for sale (both new and existing homes) are generally inversely related to housing market

and economic conditions, especially if the trend in sold prices is negative.

The housing sector of the economy is an important barometer of economic conditions. Owning a home

has traditionally been a personal goal for most Americans and represents a component of personal economic

success. Economic conditions within communities are a driver of supply and demand within the housing market.

Home value may be measured by average home prices or average sales prices. The former represents the

market value of existing homes, while the latter indicates average price received for recently sold new or existing

homes.

Slower economic conditions dampen demand for homes and inventory of homes for sale builds as less

demand for housing manifests. A higher inventory of houses for sale suggests that home prices are either too

high, employee migration into or away from an area has slowed, or demand has otherwise decreased. The

variable may also reflect a higher supply of homes by investors, but this effect would tend to be smaller than

demand for housing.

47

420

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19

# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

Blount County

Blount County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County

Source: www.realtor.com

*Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region.

County AHP # For Sale Region AHP

High Jan-19 Nov-18 Jan-19

Low Feb-19 Feb-19 Feb-19

Trend -2.28% -1.19% -2.52%


Trend -8.51% -4.01% -8.75%

Volatility Higher Lower Higher

Change

Values 142,200$ 445 136,636$

Housing Summary: Average Home Price (AHP)

Blount County

Reference Period: Sep 18 - Feb 19

Reference Period: Dec 18 - Feb 19

Reference Period: Jan 19 - Feb 19

Reference Period: Feb 19

Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Volatility is measured

as an annualized standard deviation from an expected value of each variable analyzed. Beginning and end points do not necessarily reflect

trend across entire reference period. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: “Higher” as greater than or equal to 30 percent;

“Moderate” as 20 percent to 30 percent; and “Lower” as less than or equal to 20 percent.

48

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

920

940

960

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000


# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

Calhoun County

Calhoun County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County




High Jan-19 Sep-18 Jan-19

Low Feb-19 Jan-19 Feb-19

Trend -1.58% -2.21% -2.52%


Trend -7.74% -0.75% -8.75%


Change

Values 114,900$ 859 136,636$


Calhoun County









49

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

$100,000

$115,000

$130,000

$145,000

$160,000

$175,000

$190,000

$205,000


# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

Cherokee County

Cherokee County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County




High Sep-18 Sep-18 Jan-19


Trend -8.18% -3.18% -2.52%

Volatility Higher Lower Moderate

Trend -16.33% -5.21% -8.75%

Volatility Higher Moderate Higher

Change

Values 112,000$ 478 136,636$


Cherokee County









50

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000


# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

Clay County

Clay County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County




High Jan-19 Oct-18 Jan-19

Low Sep-18 Dec-18 Feb-19

Trend 2.59% -2.15% -2.52%


Trend 0.19% 1.59% -8.75%


Change

Values 130,000$ 129 136,636$


Clay County









51

88

93

98

103

108

113

118

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000


# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

Cleburne County

Cleburne County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County




High Oct-18 Sep-18 Jan-19


Trend -3.27% -2.75% -2.52%


Trend -2.66% -5.72% -8.75%

Volatility Lower Lower Higher

Change

Values 148,300$ 96 136,636$


Cleburne County









52

450

465

480

495

510

525

540

555

570

585

600

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000


# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

DeKalb County

DeKalb County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County






Trend -1.09% -3.16% -2.52%

Volatility Lower Lower Moderate

Trend -4.05% -4.62% -8.75%


Change

Values 138,000$ 504 136,636$





DeKalb County






53

750

775

800

825

850

875

900

925

950

975

1,000

$120,000

$125,000

$130,000

$135,000

$140,000

$145,000

$150,000

$155,000

$160,000

$165,000

$170,000


# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

Etowah County

Etowah County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County




High Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19


Trend -2.32% -3.22% -2.52%

Volatility Lower Moderate Moderate

Trend -6.91% -3.57% -8.75%

Volatility Lower Moderate Higher

Change

Values 129,900$ 835 136,636$




Etowah County







54

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

$125,000

$130,000

$135,000

$140,000

$145,000

$150,000

$155,000

$160,000

$165,000

$170,000


# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

Marshall County

Marshall County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County



Note: Data not available for Marshall County in September 2018.



Low Feb-19 Dec-18 Feb-19

Trend N/A -1.79% -2.52%

Volatility N/A Moderate Moderate

Trend -3.06% 4.45% -8.75%


Change

Values 149,900$ 1,091 136,636$





Marshall County





“Moderate” as 20 percent to 30 percent; and “Lower” as less than or equal to 20 percent. County data is not available for September 2018.

With limited data availability across the reference periods, monthly county averages may be subject to high volatility and prohibit accurate

comparisons.

55

820

840

860

880

900

920

940

960

$90,000

$110,000

$130,000

$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

$230,000

$250,000


# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

Randolph County

Randolph County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County






Trend -1.99% -2.46% -2.52%


Trend -21.19% -1.62% -8.75%


Change

Values 149,000$ 844 136,636$





Randolph County






56

1,000

1,020

1,040

1,060

1,080

1,100

1,120

1,140

1,160

1,180

1,200

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000


# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

St. Clair County

St. Clair County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County






Trend -2.85% -2.38% -2.52%


Trend -8.99% 0.88% -8.75%

Volatility Higher Higher Higher

Change

Values 169,800$ 1,099 136,636$





St. Clair County






57

640

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000


# F

or

Sale

in C

ou

nty

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ces

(AH

P)

Talladega County

Talladega County AHP Region AHP* # For Sale in County




High Oct-18 Sep-18 Jan-19


Trend -5.15% -1.85% -2.52%


Trend -10.90% -1.35% -8.75%

Volatility Moderate Lower Higher

Change

Values 119,000$ 691 136,636$


Talladega County









58

575

600

625

650

675

700

725

$80,000

$95,000

$110,000

$125,000

$140,000

$155,000

$170,000

$185,000

$200,000

$215,000

$230,000


Ave

rage

# F

or

Sale

in R

egi

on

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Pri

ce (

AH

P)

Region Average vs. State Average

Region AHP* State AHP Average # For Sale in Region


*Region average represents the average home price across all eleven counties within the region that is compared in this analysis to state

average.

Region AHP # For Sale State AHP

High Jan-19 Sep-18 Feb-19

Low Feb-19 Jan-19 Sep-18

Trend -2.52% -2.37% 1.58%


Trend -8.75% -1.13% 0.16%

Volatility Higher Lower Lower

Change

Values 136,636$ 643 212,700$


Region vs. State









59

Housing- Average Sold Price

For the reference period of September 2018 through February 2019, this housing analysis considers the

average sold price by county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph,

St. Clair, and Talladega counties) in relation to the region average consisting of each county. Comparison offers

insight into the relative strength of the housing market on the local level compared to the state. Average sold

price by county and region is analyzed as follows: monthly high and low values are identified within the entire

six-month reference period; trend increases or decreases and volatility for each variable across the entire

reference period and the most recent three months; directional changes from prior month to most recent

month reported; and sold price averages by county and region for the most recent month of the reporting

period.

Trend values reflect rate of change within each respective reporting period. Volatility indicates the

extent that average sold prices of homes are relatively stable and is expressed as an annualized standard

deviation of monthly variances. Higher average sold price volatility denotes a higher variation in pricing because

of market conditions, while moderate and lower levels of volatility suggest less fluctuation.

Home value may be measured by average home price or average sold price. The former represents the

market value of existing homes, while the latter indicates average price received for recently sold new or existing

homes. The housing sector of the economy is an important barometer of economic conditions. Owning a home

has traditionally been a personal goal for most Americans and represents a component of personal economic

success. Economic conditions within communities are a driver of supply and demand within the housing market

and reflect that to the extent that individuals are entering or leaving an area, or from existing residents seeking

another home that is typically of greater value.

Higher average sold prices are positively related to economic conditions for that geographic area. Higher

demand for housing typically reflects a stronger labor market and general economic conditions and has an

upward push on home prices. Supply of homes will usually also increase under these conditions as more listings

for sale have some effect on limiting home price increases. Increases in average sold prices parallel a stronger

economy and more demand for housing in that geographic area. If average sold prices are decreasing,

conversely, this suggests that sellers are reducing prices to sell the home or that tepid housing market conditions

reflect weak demand.

Considering changes in housing data within three distinct reference periods of six months, three months,

and one month isolates various points in time that might otherwise lead to erroneous conclusions because of

seasonal variations. While both the trend changes in average sold price and volatility of those prices support

housing market strength or weakness, relative comparisons must consider the size of the base from which the

averages are generated. Data are not available for the number of houses sold, but a more vibrant housing

market is positively correlated with higher levels of analysis validity.

60

$125,000

$135,000

$145,000

$155,000

$165,000

$175,000

$185,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

Blount County

Blount County ASP Region ASP*


*Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region.

County ASP Region ASP

High Oct-18 Jan-19

Low Feb-19 Feb-19

Trend -3.04% -1.38%

Volatility Higher Moderate

Trend -2.70% -4.13%

Volatility Higher Higher

Change

Values 143,900$ 133,156$

Housing Summary: Average Sold Price (ASP)

Blount County









61

$115,000

$120,000

$125,000

$130,000

$135,000

$140,000

$145,000

$150,000

$155,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

Calhoun County

Calhoun County ASP Region ASP*




High Jan-19 Jan-19

Low Sep-18 Feb-19

Trend 2.16% -1.38%


Trend 1.28% -4.13%


Change

Values 139,500$ 133,156$





Calhoun County






62

$65,000

$75,000

$85,000

$95,000

$105,000

$115,000

$125,000

$135,000

$145,000

$155,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

Cherokee County

Cherokee County ASP Region ASP*




High Jan-19 Jan-19

Low Dec-18 Feb-19

Trend 2.54% -1.38%


Trend 21.74% -4.13%


Change

Values 124,500$ 133,156$


Cherokee County









63

$55,000

$70,000

$85,000

$100,000

$115,000

$130,000

$145,000

$160,000

$175,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

Clay County

Clay County ASP Region ASP*

Source: www.realtor.com *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region.


High Sep-18 Jan-19

Low Dec-18 Feb-19

Trend -10.18% -1.38%


Trend 10.00% -4.13%


Change

Values 96,800$ 133,156$





Clay County






64

$85,000

$105,000

$125,000

$145,000

$165,000

$185,000

$205,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

Cleburne County

Cleburne County ASP Region ASP*



High Jan-19 Jan-19

Low Feb-19 Feb-19

Trend 0.45% -1.38%


Trend -20.82% -4.13%


Change

Values 100,300$ 133,156$


Cleburne County









65

$95,000

$110,000

$125,000

$140,000

$155,000

$170,000

$185,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

DeKalb County

DeKalb County ASP Region ASP*

Source: www.realtor.com *Region average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region. Note: Data not available for DeKalb County December 2018 – February 2019.


High Sep-18 Jan-19

Low Oct-18 Feb-19

Trend N/A -1.38%

Volatility N/A Moderate

Trend N/A -4.13%

Volatility N/A Higher

Change N/A

Values N/A 133,156$





DeKalb County





“Moderate” as 20 percent to 30 percent; and “Lower” as less than or equal to 20 percent. County data are not available for July and December

2018. With limited data availability across the reference periods, monthly county averages may be subject to high volatility and prohibit

accurate comparisons.

66

$105,000

$115,000

$125,000

$135,000

$145,000

$155,000

$165,000

$175,000

$185,000

$195,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

Etowah County

Etowah County ASP Region ASP*




High Dec-18 Jan-19

Low Oct-18 Feb-19

Trend 1.76% -1.38%


Trend -10.06% -4.13%


Change

Values 152,900$ 133,156$




Etowah County







67

$110,000

$115,500

$121,000

$126,500

$132,000

$137,500

$143,000

$148,500

$154,000

$159,500


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

Marshall County

Region ASP*


Note: Data not available for Marshall County during September 2018 – February 2019.


High N/A Jan-19

Low N/A Feb-19

Trend N/A -1.38%

Volatility N/A Moderate

Trend N/A -4.13%

Volatility N/A Higher


Change N/A

Values N/A 133,156$


Marshall County







“Moderate” as 20 percent to 30 percent; and “Lower” as less than or equal to 20 percent. County data are not available for reference periods.

68

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

Randolph County

Randolph County ASP Region ASP*



High Dec-18 Jan-19

Low Feb-19 Feb-19

Trend -2.92% -1.38%


Trend -14.54% -4.13%


Change

Values 120,500$ 133,156$





Randolph County






69

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

St. Clair County

St. Clair County ASP Region ASP*



High Oct-18 Jan-19

Low Jan-19 Feb-19

Trend -0.43% -1.38%

Volatility Lower Moderate

Trend 1.02% -4.13%

Volatility Moderate Higher

Change

Values 188,500$ 133,156$





St. Clair County






70

$100,000

$110,000

$120,000

$130,000

$140,000

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

Talladega County

Talladega County ASP Region ASP*



High Oct-18 Jan-19

Low Feb-19 Feb-19

Trend -3.25% -1.38%


Trend -7.35% -4.13%

Volatility Lower Higher

Change

Values 131,500$ 133,156$


Talladega County









71

85,000

105,000

125,000

145,000

165,000

185,000

205,000

225,000


Ave

rage

So

ld P

rice

(A

SP)

Region Average vs. State Average

Region ASP* State ASP


*Region Average represents the average sold price of homes across all eleven counties within the region that is compared to the state average

sold price in this analysis.

Note: Data not available for State ASP during October 2018 – February 2019.

Region ASP State ASP

High Jan-19 Sep-18

Low Feb-19 Sep-18

Trend -1.38% N/A

Volatility Moderate N/A

Trend -4.13% N/A

Volatility Higher N/A

Change N/A

Values 133,156$ N/A


Region vs. State









Note: Data not available for State ASP during October 2018 – February 2019.

72

Gasoline- Average Sales Price

The reference period for this analysis is September 2018 through February 2019. This analysis considers

the price per gallon of regular, unleaded gasoline. Within the listed county (Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay,

Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, Marshall, Randolph, St. Clair, and Talladega counties) are selected cities (Blount –

Oneonta; Calhoun – Anniston, Jacksonville, and Oxford; Cherokee – Centre; Clay – Ashville and Lineville;

Cleburne – Heflin; DeKalb – Fort Payne and Mentone; Etowah – Gadsden, Glencoe, and Rainbow City; Marshall

– Albertville and Guntersville; Randolph – Roanoke and Wedowee; St. Clair – Moody and Pell City; Talladega –

Lincoln, Sylacauga, and Talladega) chosen with data available for analysis. County trends are compared to region

trends in measuring relative economic strength.

Gasoline price trends are further considered as follows for each county, selected city(s) within that

county, and region: monthly high and low values, trends, and volatility are identified within the entire reference

period; most recent three month trend of increases or decreases in price and volatility; directional change

representing an increase or decrease in price from prior month to most recent month reported for each

jurisdiction; and directional movement of local, county and selected city(s) prices, relative to region gasoline

prices in the most recent month reported.

While gasoline price trends often parallel across geographic categories, price volatility differences exist.

A measure of volatility captures to what extent price variability exists as a relative measure of the consistency

of price levels across time periods. Higher volatility denotes less price consistency, while moderate and lower

volatility levels reflect a greater level of price consistency. By depicting trend analysis along three different

reference periods for each variable not only are relative comparisons available, but also how that trend is

changing at different points in time. In the region versus state tab on the gasoline price analysis we include

national gasoline averages in addition to state and region to further define price and price movements for this

commodity. Volatility is relatively low between and among geographic areas in the region and state, but

frequently does not closely correlate when considered relative to national averages.

Gasoline pricing is an economic indicator to which almost everyone can relate. Depending in part on

consumption propensities on a multitude of levels, consumers are ultimately impacted either directly or

indirectly. The price of gasoline affects an economy in one of two ways expressed as follows:

• direct cost to consumers through purchasing power affects who spend primarily for automobile

gasoline for transportation

• indirect cost to consumers via expenses encountered by suppliers and producers in the process

of operating a business

Higher prices for gasoline, all else being equal, represent a reduction in consumer purchasing power;

thus, less money is available for expenditure on other goods and services. Suppliers and producers are faced

with higher production costs if gasoline prices rise. These costs are sometimes absorbed but are frequently

transferred to consumers as a fuel surcharge.

73


Oneonta $2.58 $2.59 $2.60 $2.25 $1.99 $2.00

County $2.58 $2.59 $2.60 $2.25 $1.99 $2.00

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

Pric

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Blount County

Oneonta County Region

Source: American Automobile Association (AAA)

Note: Region values are an average of a summation of all selected city values in each county within the eleven-county region; county values

are a summation of values for each selected city in the analysis for that county. Only the selected city(s) identified within each county analyzed

is included in these calculations. There are cities in each county that are not included in county or region analysis.


High Oct-18 Nov-18 Nov-18


Trend -6.26% -6.10% -6.09%

Volatility Lower Lower Lower

Trend -3.87% -5.54% -5.54%


Change

Local to Region N/A

Gasoline Price Summary

Blount County





Note: Trend is a calculated rate of change from an exponential curve that best fits the data across each reference period. Beginning and end

points do not necessarily reflect trend across entire reference period. Volatility is measured as an annualized standard deviation from an

expected value of each variable analyzed. Volatility levels are subjectively assigned as follows: “Higher” as greater than or equal to 40 percent;

“Moderate” as 30 percent to 40 percent; and “Lower” as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship

of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across the eleven-county region. Considering a local

jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative to region average, a down

arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices.

74


Anniston $2.49 $2.58 $2.49 $2.18 $1.88 $1.98

Jacksonville $2.42 $2.51 $2.42 $2.02 $1.81 $1.92

Oxford $2.51 $2.58 $2.49 $2.20 $1.89 $1.99

County $2.47 $2.55 $2.47 $2.14 $1.86 $1.96

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.70

$1.85

$2.00

$2.15

$2.30

$2.45

$2.60

$2.75

$1.70

$1.85

$2.00

$2.15

$2.30

$2.45

$2.60

$2.75

Pric

e /

Gal

lon

(Reg

ular

)

Pric

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Gal

lon

(Reg

ular

)

Calhoun County

Anniston Jacksonville Oxford County Region






High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18

Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19

Trend -6.26% -6.22% -6.16% -6.38% -6.11%

Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower

Trend -3.87% -4.13% -4.78% -2.63% -4.89%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Change

Local to Region N/A


Calhoun County







levels are subjectively assigned as follows: “Higher” as greater than or equal to 40 percent; “Moderate” as 30 percent to 40 percent; and “Lower” as less than or

equal to 30 percent. Local to Region analysis represents the relationship of gasoline prices in a local jurisdiction (county or selected city) to an average price across

the eleven-county region. Considering a local jurisdiction relative to region average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the local jurisdiction relative

to region average, a down arrow indicates that the local price is lower than the region average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices.

75


Centre $2.41 $2.56 $2.43 $2.03 $1.83 $1.90

County $2.41 $2.56 $2.43 $2.03 $1.83 $1.90

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

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Pric

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Cherokee County

Centre County Region






High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18


Trend -6.26% -6.57% -6.58%


Trend -3.87% -3.11% -3.11%


Change

Local to Region N/A




Cherokee County










76


Ashland $2.47 $2.56 $2.52 $2.16 $2.05 $1.99

Lineville $2.48 $2.58 $2.49 $2.21 $1.89 $1.99

County $2.47 $2.57 $2.51 $2.18 $1.97 $1.99

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

Pric

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Pric

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Clay County

Ashland Lineville County Region






High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18

Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Jan-19

Trend -6.26% -5.61% -5.28% -5.94%

Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower

Trend -3.87% -4.51% -4.02% -4.99%

Volatility Moderate Lower Lower Moderate

Change

Local to Region N/A



Gasoline Price SummaryClay County










77


Heflin $2.60 $2.65 $2.61 $2.28 $1.98 $2.04

County $2.60 $2.65 $2.61 $2.28 $1.98 $2.04

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

Pric

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Pric

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Cleburne County

Heflin County Region








Trend -6.26% -6.13% -6.13%


Trend -3.87% -5.47% -5.47%


Change

Local to Region N/A




Cleburne County










78


Fort Payne $2.48 $2.54 $2.49 $2.02 $1.87 $1.95

Mentone $2.58 $2.62 $2.55 $2.14 $2.02 $2.04

County $2.53 $2.58 $2.52 $2.08 $1.94 $1.99

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

Pric

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Pric

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DeKalb County

Fort Payne Mentone County Region








Trend -6.26% -6.16% -6.37% -5.96%


Trend -3.87% -2.09% -1.72% -2.44%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Higher Lower

Change

Local to Region N/A




DeKalb County










79


Gadsden $2.50 $2.56 $2.47 $2.04 $1.88 $1.95

Glencoe $2.50 $2.56 $2.48 $2.03 $1.89 $1.93

Rainbow City $2.50 $2.54 $2.47 $2.04 $1.88 $1.94

County $2.50 $2.56 $2.48 $2.04 $1.88 $1.94

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

Pric

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Pric

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Etowah County

Gadsden Glencoe Rainbow City County Region








Trend -6.26% -6.56% -6.54% -6.58% -6.57%

Volatility Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower

Trend -3.87% -2.39% -2.19% -2.47% -2.51%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Change

Local to Region N/A



Etowah County










80


Albertville $2.50 $2.55 $2.45 $2.03 $1.89 $1.94

Guntersville $2.51 $2.55 $2.45 $2.09 $1.91 $1.94

County $2.50 $2.55 $2.45 $2.06 $1.90 $1.94

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

Pric

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Pric

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Marshall County

Albertville Guntersville County Region








Trend -6.26% -6.46% -6.49% -6.43%


Trend -3.87% -3.02% -2.24% -3.78%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Lower

Change

Local to Region N/A




Marshall County










81


Roanoke $2.46 $2.54 $2.46 $2.04 $1.85 $1.94

Wedowee $2.61 $2.60 $2.54 $2.24 $2.00 $1.98

County $2.54 $2.57 $2.50 $2.14 $1.92 $1.96

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$2.70

Pric

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Pric

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Randolph County

Roanoke Wedowee County Region






High Oct-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Sep-18

Low Jan-19 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19

Trend -6.26% -6.40% -6.45% -6.37%


Trend -3.87% -4.24% -2.36% -5.99%

Volatility Moderate Lower Moderate Lower

Change

Local to Region N/A




Randolph County










82


Moody $2.47 $2.55 $2.46 $2.06 $1.87 $1.94

Pell City $2.43 $2.58 $2.51 $2.12 $1.92 $1.99

County $2.50 $2.56 $2.49 $2.09 $1.90 $1.97

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

Pric

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Pric

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St. Clair County

Moody Pell City County Region








Trend -6.26% -6.24% -6.40% -5.67%


Trend -3.87% -2.90% -2.81% -3.16%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Change

Local to Region N/A




St. Clair County










83


Lincoln $2.47 $2.57 $2.37 $2.21 $1.89 $1.95

Sylacauga $2.57 $2.60 $2.59 $2.22 $1.81 $1.96

Talladega $2.43 $2.54 $2.53 $2.09 $1.85 $1.96

County $2.49 $2.57 $2.50 $2.17 $1.85 $1.96

Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

$1.70

$1.85

$2.00

$2.15

$2.30

$2.45

$2.60

$2.75

$1.70

$1.85

$2.00

$2.15

$2.30

$2.45

$2.60

$2.75

Pric

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Pric

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Talladega County

Lincoln Sylacauga Talladega County Region








Trend -6.26% -6.45% -6.04% -7.15% -6.13%

Volatility Lower Lower Lower Moderate Moderate

Trend -3.87% -5.15% -6.07% -6.17% -3.13%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Moderate Higher Higher

Change

Local to Region N/A



Talladega County










84


Region $2.51 $2.57 $2.50 $2.13 $1.91 $1.97

State $2.53 $2.57 $2.49 $2.15 $1.91 $1.97

Nation $2.84 $2.88 $2.76 $2.46 $2.24 $2.26

$1.80

$1.95

$2.10

$2.25

$2.40

$2.55

$2.70

$2.85

$3.00

$1.80

$1.95

$2.10

$2.25

$2.40

$2.55

$2.70

$2.85

$3.00

Pric

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Pric

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Region & State

Region State Nation





Region State Nation



Trend -6.26% -6.30% -5.59%


Trend -3.87% -4.22% -4.22%

Volatility Moderate Moderate Lower

Change

Region and State to Nation N/A



Region, State, & Nation







“Moderate” as 30 percent to 40 percent; and “Lower” as less than or equal to 30 percent. Local to nation analysis represents the relationship

of gasoline prices in the eleven-county region, as well as the State of Alabama, to an average price in the nation. Considering the region or

state relative to a nation average, an up arrow indicates that the price is higher in the region or state relative to the nation average, a down

arrow indicates that the local (region and state) price is lower than the nation average, and a horizontal arrow indicates equal prices.

economic update - jsu 2019 - use this one.pdf · economic update (northeast alabama regional...

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