economic trends globally and in russia odd per brekk senior resident representative higher school of...
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Economic Trends Globally and in Russia
Odd Per BrekkSenior Resident Representative
Higher School of EconomicsMarch 5, 2013
Outline of Lecture
Global Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Implications for Russia (I): Macroeconomic Projections and Policies
Implications for Russia (II): Sectoral and Regional Issues
The Global Economy
After an across-the-board slowdown in 2012Q2,
a slight improvement in activity in Q3 …
Global Growth(annualized percent change from previous quarter)
Source: Haver Analytics and IMF staff estimates.
Q3
5
… but real sector indicators suggest no further strengthening in Q4
Source Markit Economics/Haver Analytics, CPB Trade Monitor, IMF.
Global Manufacturing PMI(Index; > 50 = expansion; SA)
Euro Area: Real GDP Growth(annualized quarterly percent change)
Nevertheless, financial market conditions improved throughout the second half of 2012
6Sources: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg Financial Markets; and IMF staff estimates.
Source: Bloomberg, L.P. and IMF staff estimates.
10-Year Government Bond Spreads over German Bunds(basis points)
World Equity Markets(index; 2011=100)
Dec-12
World U.S.Euro Area Japan Brazil Russia India China
2013(Jan 2013
WEO) 3.5 2.0 -0.2 1.2 3.5 3.7 5.9 8.22013
(Oct 2012 WEO) 3.6 2.1 0.2 1.2 4.0 3.8 6.0 8.2
2014(Jan 2013
WEO) 4.1 3.0 1.0 0.7 4.0 3.8 6.4 8.52014
(Oct 2012 WEO) 4.1 2.9 1.2 1.1 4.2 3.9 6.4 8.5
WEO Real GDP Growth Projections (Percent change from a year earlier)
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook.
A gradual upturn in global growth during 2013
Economic Policy Priorities
Euro area: Continue adjustment in periphery Full deployment of European firewalls Use flexibility offered by the Fiscal Compact Further steps toward full banking union and greater fiscal integration
United States: Avoid excessive fiscal consolidation in the short term
(deal fully with “fiscal cliff” and debt ceiling) Agree on a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan, focused on
entitlement and tax reform.
Economic Policy Priorities (ctd)
Japan: More ambitious monetary easing Adopt a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan, anchored by
consumption tax increases Raise potential growth through structural reforms
China: Continue with market-oriented structural reforms Rebalance the economy toward private consumption
EMDEs more generally: General challenge is to rebuild macroeconomic policy space Balance external downside risks against risks of rising domestic
imbalances
Implications for Russia (I)Macroeconomic Projections and Policies
Russia: Macroeconomic Outlook
Quarterly GDP, Private Consumption and “Output Gap”
Headline and Core Inflation(Annual rate)
Pro
ject
ed
Source: Rosstat; IMF staff estimates and projections.
2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012
2013
80
90
100
110
120
130
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Real GDP (2008 Q2 = 100)Private consumption (2008 Q2 = 100)Output gap in percent, rhs scale
Pro
ject
ed
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Overall CPICore inflation (IMF estimate)
Russia: Accounting for Past Growth
Growth Rate (GDP)
Capital Stock
Labor Force
Total Factor Productivity (TFP)
2001-11 2001-08 2001-11 2001-11Real GDP growth Labor growth Investment/
GDP, in percent
(rhs)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
4.8
6.4
0.6
19.6562409598446Russia: GDP growth, labor and in-
vestment
2001-11 2001-08012345678
012345678
Contributions to GDP growth (percentage points)
TFP Labor Capital
Russia: Accounting for Past Growth
Russia: Medium-Term Economic Policy Priorities and Outlook
(Real GDP Growth in Percent)
Macroeconomic stability: fiscal and monetary policy anchors
More developed and sound financial sector
Improved investment climate -8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Baseline Adverse Reform
Russia: Fiscal PolicyFiscal Operations of the Federal Government
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Overall balance Non-oil balance
As %
of
GD
P
Pro
ject
ed
Fiscal Policy Stance(Percent of potential GDP)
Fiscal Balance(Percent of GDP)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Output gapFiscal impulse, + = stimulus
As %
of
po
ten
tia
l G
DP
Pro
ject
ed
Source: Rosstat; IMF staff estimates and projections.
Russia: Monetary Policy
Interest RatesExchange Rate and FX Interventions
Bank Credit Growth
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201202468
101214161820
02468101214161820
MIACR
auction REPO
CBR fixed deposit
CBR fixed REPO
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201228
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
-80
-60
-40
-20
20
40
60
80
Net interventions, rhsBasket rateER band
Rub.
U.S
. d
ollar
bn
.2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100CorporateOverallRetail
Annual ra
te
2006 2008 2010 2012 20140
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Overall CPI CBR Target
Annual ra
te
Inflation: Actual vs. Targeted
Implications for Russia (II)Sectoral and Regional Issues
Russia has large regional inequality…Kore
a
Aust
ralia
Neth
erl
ands
US
France
Japan
Canada
Germ
any
Finla
nd
Gre
ece UK
Irela
nd
Pola
nd
Italy
Norw
ay
Spain
Sw
eden
Belg
ium
Aust
ria
Cze
ch
Port
ugal
Slo
venia
Hungary
India
Turk
ey
Chin
a
Slo
vak
Rep.
Sri
Lanka
Mexi
co
Indonesi
a
Russ
ia
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Ave
rag
e G
DP
dis
pe
rsio
n
… which is consistent with its income level …
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
5.70711999999999
0.17025
-2.91934999999998
-0.98438
-3.0051
3.69639
-1.79763999999999
-0.06158
0.69745
-2.6846
-0.40906-2.4109
-2.9574
-1.92799
9.88017
-0.51205
-3.07464999999998
-0.436070000000002
-2.32887-2.85406999999998
-4.08865-3.92812
-1.59894-1.14956
10.83393
-2.06402
5.66185
-0.765980000000004
2.62253
11.58455
Average Regional GDP Dispersion, 1995-2005(Russia data is 2000-2005)
Ne
t C
om
mo
dit
y E
xp
ort
s t
o G
DP
(P
erc
en
t)
… and with its specialization in natural resources
Not much regional convergence during 2000-10 …
• Solid growth at the national level: 5-5½ percent during 2000-10
• But limited convergence of regional GDP per capita 75 percent of regions with
below average GDP per capita in 2000 have grown at sub-par rates.
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0Avera
ge
gro
wth
during 2
000-1
0
Regional GDP per capita in 2000 (relative to national average)
Moscow
Sources: Rosstat; and IMF staff calculations.
* 79 regions, excluding Chechen.
Tumen
75%
… and economic activity remains unevenly distributed
Central district
Northwest district
South district
North-Caucasus dis-trict
Volga district
Urals district
Siberia district
Far East district
Value Added in 2010 by Russian District
Source: Rosstat
Centra
l dist
rict
North
west d
istri
ct
Sout
h di
stric
t
North
-Cau
casu
s dist
rict
Volga
distri
ct
Urals
dist
rict
Sibe
ria d
istri
ct
Far E
ast d
istric
t0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Russian Federation
GDP per capita in 2010
Rub. thousand
Economic policies for faster convergence
Improved macro stability at the national level Reforms to:
Improve the investment climate, particularly in lower-GDP regions
Support diversification at the regional level (smaller idiosyncratic shocks)
Enhance (further) factor mobility
Further risk-sharing through countercyclical fiscal policy at the regional level
Example: WTO accession and sectoral effects
Source: Russia’s WTO Accession: What are the macroeconomic, sector, labor market and household effects? T.Rutherford, D.Tarr, 2005
Impact of WTO Accession on Output by Sector
Mechanic
al engin
eerin
g
Food
Scie
nce
Lig
ht I
ndustry
Constructio
n m
ateria
ls
Tim
ber a
nd p
ulp
and p
aper
Pip
elines t
ransportatio
n
Agric
ult
ure
Air
transportatio
n
Constructio
n
Railw
ay t
ransportatio
n
Com
munal and c
onsum
er s
...
Ele
ctric
industry
Marit
ime t
ransportatio
n
Oil r
efi
nin
g a
nd p
rocessin
g
Crude o
il e
xtractio
n
Post
Gas
Coalm
inin
g
Caterin
g
Whole
sale
and r
etail t
rade
Tele
com
munic
atio
ns
Fin
ancia
l servic
es
Truck t
ransportatio
n
Chem
ical and o
il-c
hem
ical
Ferrous m
etallurgy
Non-f
errous m
etallurgy
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% c
hange
Example: WTO accession and regional effects
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Welf
are
gain
as %
of
GR
P
Source: IMF staff estimates based on Regional Impacts of Russia’s Accession to the WTO, T.Rutherford, D.Tarr, 2006
Impact of WTO Accession by Region
Thank you !
Odd Per BrekkSenior Resident Representative
March 5, 2013