economic risk analysis: oregon and the japanese … risk analysis: oregon and the japanese beetle...
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Plant Protection & Conservation Insect Pest Prevention and Management Program
Oregon.gov/ODA Rev2/1/2017
EconomicRiskAnalysis:OregonandtheJapaneseBeetle(Popilliajaponica)
Name:JapaneseBeetle,Popilliajaponica(Newman)Origin,biology,hosts:NativetoJapan,introducedintoU.S.(NewJersey)in1916;nowinmosteasternstates;onegenerationperyear;larvaefeedongrassroots;adultsfeedonover300speciesofplants(e.g.,roses,fruittrees,grapes)RISKRATINGSUMMARYRelativeRiskrating:VERYHIGH NumericalScore:9(ona1-9scale)Uncertainty:LOWRISKRATINGDETAILS• EstablishmentPotential:HIGHOregon’sclimateandhostplantdistributionareidealforJapanesebeetle
establishment.• SpreadPotential:HIGH Sinceitsintroductionin1916inNewJersey,Japanesebeetleshavebecomeestablishedinhalfofthe
48contiguousstates.Nurserystock,commercialcargoairplanes,andlong-haultrucksaremajorpathwaysofintroduction.
• EnvironmentalImpactPotential:LOWManyJapanesebeetlehostsoccurinOregon’snaturalenvironment.Himalayanblackberry,aknown
favoritehostplant,isabundant.Potentialimpactstonativespeciessuchasbigleafmaple,salmonberry,andnativegrassesaredifficulttopredict,butcouldbesignificant.
• EconomicImpactPotential:HIGH Oregonhasanumberofsusceptiblehoststhatareofeconomicsignificance(seeTable):
OregonCrop/Commodity
BearingorHarvestedAcreage
ProductionValue
EstimatedCropDamageCostsa
EstimatedQuarantineCosts
TotalEconomicImpact
Nurseries(B&B,Container,Greenhouse) 61,099b 805,000,000b 12,880,000 3,477,600f 16,357,600
Grapes 19,000 118,320,000 1,893,120 151,450g 2,044,570
Hops 5,410 35,679,000 570,864 45,669g 616,533
Cannabis ? 361,000,000d 5,776,000 NotApplicable 5,776,000
Caneberries 9,000 70,789,000 1,132,624 90,610g 1,223,234
Blueberries 9,000 102,325,000 1,637,200 130,976g 1,768,176
Pears(allvarieties) 14,400 127,392,000 2,038,272 163,062g 2,201,334
Sweetcherries 12,500 82,709,000 1,323,344 105,867g 1,429,211
Apples 5,100 43,269,000 692,304 55,384g 747,688
Snapbeans/process 8,500 13,940,000 223,040 17,843g 240,883
Grasses(turf) 418,550 449,018,000 7,184,288 574,743g 7,759,031
GolfCourses 8,550c 336,400,000e 5,382,400 NotApplicable 5,382,400Total 571,109 2,545,841,000 34,957,456 4,813,204 45,546,660
Plant Protection & Conservation Insect Pest Prevention and Management Program
Oregon.gov/ODA Rev2/1/2017
a productofproductionvaluemultipliedby.016(damageestimatefromFowleretal.2007)bOAN2016cbasedon190golfcoursesinORandaverageof45acresofgrassplantedper18-holegolfcourse d2014reported150,628poundsOregoninternalmarket,soldataverageof$150/ounce
eTheOregonGolfEconomyFullReport2013fproductofestimatedcropdamagecostsmultipliedby.27(estimatedproportionofproductsthatwouldbequarantinedbasedondestination−westernstatesandCanada)
gproductofestimatedcropdamagecostsmultipliedby.08(estimatedproportionforquarantinecosts(Fowleretal.2007))
TAKEHOMEMESSAGEIftheJapanesebeetlebecomesestablishedinOregonandgenerallydispersesthroughoutthestate,theeconomicimpacttoallcrops,commodities,andotherrelatedbusinessescouldbeapproximately$45.5million.References Crownover,M.Howmanyacresareneededforan18holegolfcourse?Golfsmith.DemandMedia.Fowler,G.,L.Garrett,A.Neeley,D.Borchert,andB.Spears.2007.EconomicAnalysis:RisktoU.S.Apple,Grape,OrangeandPearProductionfromtheLightBrownAppleMoth,Epiphyaspostvittana(Walker).USDA-APHIS-PPQ-CPHSt-PERALRaleigh,NC.Mortenson,E.2015.OSUexpertsaysskilledfarmerswouldswamppotmarket.CapitolPress.OregonAgripedia.2015edition.OregonDepartmentofAgriculture,Salem,OR.OregonAssociationofNurseries.2016.2014OregonNursery&GreenhouseStatistics.TheOregonGolfEconomyFullReport.2013.GolfAllianceofOregonGolf20/20.