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Arnie Nachmanoff

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· ECONOMICS IS NOT JUST ABOUT ECONOMICS

· ANAL YSIS OF NATIONAL ECONOMIES CANNOT BECONFINED WITHIN BORDERS

· PRESENTATION IS AS IMPORTANT AS CONTENT

-- TO ADD VALUE, ANALYSIS MUST BE:

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HOW OXFORD ANALYTICA PRODUCES TIMELY, HIGHQUALITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOR CLIENTS:

* integrating expertise from around world, utilizinginformation technology

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Oxford Analytica Daily BriefSelection of economic briefs

1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:

1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:1996:

PERU: Ombudsman Office (L)SINGAPORE: Industrial Policy (A)ARGENTINA: Social UnrestCHINA: Leadership ChangesSERBIA: Privatisation Shift (E)BANGLADESH: Investment Climate (A)EUROPEAN UNION: Rail ReformUNITED STATES: Social SecurityTRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: Slowing Growth (L)ROMANIA: PSD Strategy (E)VIETNAM: Infrastructure Challenge (A)GERMANY: Eastern RelationsTAIWAN: Recognition SearchINTERNATIONAL: Interest Rates

MEXICO: Railway Sales (L)UZBEKISTAN: Infrastructure Investment (E)CHINA: Bourse Revival (A)BULGARIA: Presidency PloyNIGERIA: Creditor ProblemsGERMANY: EU Subsidy RowARGENTINA: Capital Autonomy (L)RUSSIA: Automobile Sector (E)JAPAN: Bureaucracy Cuts (A)BURMA: Economic SqueezeUKRAINE: New CurrencyFRANCE: Fiscal Stimulus

32

SepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSepSep

12,12,12,12,11,11,11,11,I0,10,10,10,10,10,9,

9,9,9,9,9,6,6,6,6,6,6,

Oxford Analytica Daily BriefSelection of economic briefs

Sep 12, 1996: CHINA: Leadership Changes

EVENT: The Communist Party is discussing a series of top leadership changes, including a revival of MaoZedong's former post of party chairman.

SIGNIFICANCE: Under the proposals, President Jiang Zemin would become chairman, with Prime MinisterLi Peng and National People's Congress Chairman Qiao Shi as his vice chairmen. However, the party's 'liberalwing', which is linked to Qiao Shi, is believed to be opposing the changes.

CONCLUSION: Jiang's protege Wu Bangguo is the most likely successor to Li Peng as premier. While thechanges would not necessarily enhance Jiang's personal power, they would further consolidate both his positionand that of key supporters within the leadership. This would maintain the current balance between those forand against faster economic reform.

Sep 10, 1996: INTERNATIONAL: Interest Rates

SUBJECT: Global interest rates (Part 2 of 2: G3 policies and the outlook for long-term rates).

SIGNIFICANCE: The different political economies of the G3 make coordination of interest rates difficult andcreate uncertainty for institutional fund managers. This in turn generates destabilising capital movements asportfolios are continually adjusted to reflect the expected moves by the three key authorities.

CONCLUSION: Long rates will probably remain at their present historically high real levels despite lowshort-term rates, at least until new institutional conventions emerge. This is because of the risk premiainvolved in the lack of a solid basis for capital market expectations rather than any global shortage of capital.

Sep 6, 1996: BURMA: Economic Squeeze

EVENT: Both Total and Unocal have come under strong pressure to withdraw from a 1.2 billion dollar naturalgas and pipeline project linking Burma and Thailand.

SIGNIFICANCE: Western oil companies have thus far resisted pressure to dilute their presence in Burma, butseveral of their consumer industry counterparts have withdrawn. Despite continuing Asian investment, themedium-term outlook for the Burmese economy is poor.

CONCLUSION: As long as the current political impasse continues, crucial multilateral lending will remainblocked. Neither bilateral lending from ASEAN nor revenues from the Andaman Sea gas fields will besufficient to support essential economic reforms.

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MEXICO: Universitv Reform (L -- Sep 11 1996

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Oxford Analytica Brief Conpany X MexicoInformation

MEXICO: University Reform (L)

Sep 11, 1996 :1

EVENT: The government has confronted a wave of protest from students and their families overits attempts to make entry to the national university subject to competitive examination.

SIGNIFICANCE: A national examination is seen as a crucial step towards raising academicstandards, both within higher education and in secondary education.

ANALYSIS: The results of the national examination for students wishing to gain entry into thenational university (UNAM) were published in the newspapers at the beginning of last month.More than nine out of every ten applicants secured a place in one of the five institutions for whichthey had previously specified a preference. Even though the number of applicants rejected wasunder 2,000, a series of protest demonstrations ensued.

Over the last month, students and their parents have blockaded key arteries of Mexico City,creating chaotic traffic conditions. They have allied themselves with the so-called ceuistas,groups linked to the University Student Council (CEU), which was established in 1986, to opposeplans by the then rector, Jorge Carpizo, to introduce examinations for admission into UNAM.After a period of bitter protest in the late 1980s, the ceuista movement was weakened by internal

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Summary: How does Oxford Analyticaintegrate expertise to producetimely & high quality analysis?

-- network of more than 1000 experts around world builtover 20 years

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OSS '96: THE CONFERENCE Proceedings, 1996 Volume II, Fifth Internatinal

Symposium Global Security & Global Competitiveess: Open - Link PagePrevious Mr. William Ruh, Senior Vice President, Center for Information Technology, Concept Five Technologies, Optimizing

Corporate Capital Through Information Technology

Next Mr. Philippe Clerc, Chief of Mission, Competitiveness and Economic Security, General Secretariat for NationalDefense (SGDN), Republic of France

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