economic indicators september 2013

| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date] 1

Economic Indicators

Last update 13.09.2013

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – September 2013

Europe:

• Consensus September GDP forecast for WE rose from -0,1% to 0,0% for 2013 and from 1,1%

to 1,3% for 2014.

• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in August.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again in August. Both, the assessments of

the current business situation as well as the six-months business outlook are more positive

than last month.

• The Eurozone finally exited recession in Q2 and latest indicators suggest that the recovery

could be maintained over the coming months.

US:

• Consensus September GDP forecast for the US improved from 1,5% to 1,6% for 2013 and from

2,6% to 2,7% for 2014.

• A small uptick in the 2013 and 2014 GDP outlook was based on the 2nd release of the Q2

national accounts. The report showed an upside revision to the initial GDP outturn of 1,7% to

2,5% growth, more than double the first quarter’s 1,1% pace.

Japan:

• The September GDP growth forecast for Japan remained on 1,9% for 2013 and improved from

1,5% to 1,7% for 2014.

• Q2 GDP indicated that a solid economic recovery is taking hold.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Sep 13

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

'07

Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

'07Q

1

'08 Q

1

'09 Q

1

'10 Q

1

'11 Q

1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Aug 13

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

1,7 %

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED Sep 13

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate


10,9

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

%

Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again considerably in August.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved again in August.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Ja

n 0

6

Ja

n 0

7

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ja

n 1

4

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

78,9

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 13

The Ifo World Economic climate fell slightly in Q3 2013

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 13

The economic climate for Europe brightened slightly in Q3 2013.



Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Aug 13



Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO June 13


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO June 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO June 13


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Sep 13

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to rise. Both, the assessments of the

current business situation and the expectations for the coming six months are more positive

than last month. The German economy moved up a gear.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Sep 13

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to rise. Both, the assessments of the

current business situation and the expectations for the coming six months are more positive

than last month. The German economy moved up a gear.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Sep 13, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly to -8 in August.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – August 2013:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry improved compared to the last month to now -12%, which is

slightly worse than in the same month of last year.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – improved slightly to now -8%.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened by

10%points to now -3%. In the same month of last year expectations

were still positive at +8%.

Source: IFO Sep 13, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release

Source: Zenith 6/13

Executive summary: Advertising Expenditure Forecast June 2013

• Global ad expenditure to grow 3,5% in 2013, down from 3,9% forecast in Q1

due to continuing recession in the Eurozone and security concerns in South Korea.

5,1% are being forecast for 2014 and 5,8% for 2015.

• Growth will be led by the Rising markets (av. growth of 8,6% per year)

while Mature markets will grow at an average of 2,8%.

• US remains biggest contributor of new ad dollars to the global ad market followed

by China, Argentina, Indonesia and Russia

• Internet is still the fastest growing medium by some distance, mobile advertising

has now truly taken off and is growing five times faster than desktop internet.

• Advertising in printed newspapers and magazines will continue to shrink at an

average of 2-3% a year.



Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13

economic indicators september 2013

Technology

economic indicators

date1 economic indicators

economic indicators

latest indicators

solid economic recovery

ifo data

eu industrial confidence

vs source