economic indicators: may 1979 - fraser · joint resolution fs j. res. s5] to print the monthly...

96th Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators

May 1979

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1979

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, ChairmanRICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Vice Chairman

SENATEWILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota)PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)JACOB K. JAVITS (New York)WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho)ROGER W. JEPSEN (Iowa)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESHENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)

JOHN JM. ALBERTINE, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERSCHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman

LYLE E. GRAMLEY

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION]JOINT RESOLUTION fS J. Res. S5]

To print the monthly publication entitled ''Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the JointEconomic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators/* and that asufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant atArms of the Senate; the Clerk. Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies tothe libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint EconomicCommittee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depositorylibraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.

Approved June 23,1949.

Charts drawn by Art Production Branch^ Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $1.30 a single copyor by subscription at $15.00 per year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON, D.C 20402

11


TOTAL OUTPUT,GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTAccording to revised estimates for the first quarter, gross national product rose $50.0 billion or 9.3 percent, bothat annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased 0.4 percent from the fourth quarter leveland the implicit price deflator rose at an 8.8 percent annual rate.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)2,400

1,400

1,200

1,0001971 1979

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

(Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1968196919701971197219731974__197519761977__1978

1977: III--IV—

1978:1II —III_._IV....

1979: 1 *___

Grossna-

tionalprod-uct

868.5935.5982.4

1, 063. 41, 171. 11, 306. 61, 412. 91, 528. 81, 700. 11, 887. 22, 107. 6

1, 916. 81, 958. 1

1, 992. 02, 087. 52, 136. 12, 214. 8

2, 264. 8

Per-sonalcon-

sump-tionex-

pend-itures

535.9579.7618.8668.2733.0809.9889. 6979. 1

1, 090. 21, 206. 51, 340. 1

1, 214. 51, 255. 2

1, 276. 71, 322. 91, 356. 91, 403. 9

1, 440. 4

Grossprivatedomes-

ticinvest-ment

131.5146.2140. 8160. 0188.3220.0214.6190.9243.0297.8345.6

309. 7313. 5

322. 7345.4350. 1364.0

371. 1

Exporlgooc

Netex-

ports

2.31. 83.91.6

-3.37. 16. 0

20.47.4

-11. 1-12. 0

-7.0-23.2

-24. 1-5.5

-10.7-7.6

-5.3

ts and imfIs and ser

Ex-ports

49. 954. 762. 565. 672. 7

101. 6137.9147.3163.2175. 5204.8

180.8172. 1

181.7205.4210. 1221.9

233.8

>orts ofvices

Im-ports

47.752.958.564.075. 994.4

131.9126.9155.7186.6216.8

187.8195.2

205. 8210.9220.8229.5

239.0

Go^

Total

198.7207.9218.9233.7253. 1269.5302.7338.4359.5394.0433.9

399.5412.5

416. 7424.7439.8454.5

458.5

^ernment

Total

98.097.595.696.2

102. 1102. 2111. 1123. 1129. 9145. 1153.8

146.8152.2

151.5147.2154.0162.5

164.5

purchasesservices

Federal

Na-tional

de-fense l

76.976.373.570 273.573.577.083.786. 894.399.5

94.497. 1

97.998. 699.6

102. 1

103.9

of goods

Non-de-

fense

21.221. 222. 126.028. 628.734. 139.443. 150.854. 3

52.455. 1

53.648.654.560.4

60.6

and

Stateandlocal

100.7110.4123.2137. 5151. 0167.3191. 5215.4229.6248.9280.2

252.7260.3

265. 2277.6285.8292. 0

294. 0

Finalsales

860.8926.2978. 6

1, 057. 11, 161. 71, 288. 61, 404. 01, 539. 61, 689. 91, 871. 62, 091. 6

1} 894. 91, 945. 0

1, 975. 32, 067. 42, 122. 52, 201. 3

2, 248. 11 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense,

shown on p. 33.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS

(Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted animal rates]

Period

1§68__ _ _196919701971__1972197319741975___ „1976___1977__ •1978

III__IV...

1978:1II...III...IV—

1979: 1 »—

Grossnationalproduct

1, 051. 81, 078. 81, 075. 31, 107. 51, 171. 11, 235. 01,217. 81, 202. 31, 271. 01, 332. 71, 385. 7

1, 343. 91, 354. 5

1, 354. 21, 382. 61, 391. 41, 414. 7

1? 416. 3

Per-sonalcon-sump-tion

expend-itures

633.4655. 4668. 9691. 9733. 0767. 7760.7774. 6819.4857. 7891.7

858.0876. 6

873. 5886.3895. 1911.8

912.4

Grossi

Non-resi-

dentialfixed

108. 0114. 3110. 0108. 0116. 8131.0130.6113.6118.9129.8140.2

130.8132. 5

133. 8140. 5141. 7144. 9

146.8

private d<nvestmem

Resi-dentialfixed

42.843. 240. 452. 262.059.745. 038.847.857.759.8

58.860.3

59.559.959.760.3

57.7

wnesticb

Changein busi-ness in-vento-

ries

8.710. 64.36.69. 4

16.58. 0

-9.8.6.78.9

10.6

12.27.5

12.312.79.08.2

11.2

Exa

W«tiN Cll

exports

-0. 4-1.3

1.4-.6

-3.37.6

15.922.615.49.58.4

12. 53. 1

2.911.39.2

10. 2

11.7

ports of gnd servie<

Exports

58.562.267. 167.972. 787. 493.090.095. 998.2

107.0

100. 896.0

99. 1108.4109.0111.7

114. 7

Dods3S

Imports

58.963. 565.768. 575.979.977. 167.580. 588.798.6

88.292.9

96.297. 199. 7

101.5

103.0

Govern!gooc

Total

259.2256. 7250.2249. 4253. 1252. 5257. 7262.6262. 8269. 2275.0

271.7274.5

272. 1271.9276.7279.4

276.4

nent pureIs and ser

Federal

128.3121. 8110.7103.9102. 196. 695.896.596.6

101.6100.3

102.9103.6

101.297. 1

100.4102.5

102.0

bases ofvices

Stateandlocal

130.9134.9139.5145. 5151. 0155. 9161. 8166. 1166. 2167.6174. 7

168.8170.9

170.8174. 8176.3176.9

174.5

I

Finalsales

1, 043. 11, 068. 21, 071. 01, 100. 91, 161. 71, 218. 51, 209. 91, 212. 11, 264. 41, 323. 813 375. 2

1, 331. 71, 347. 1

1, 341. 81, 369. 91, 382. 41, 406. 5

1, 405. 0

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

[1972=100]

Period

1968, _• ___

1970_1971. _ _1972 „1973 .19741975 _

.1977__ _ _ _1978

1977:111IV

1978:1IIIIIIV

!*>___

Grossnationalproduct

82. 5786. 7291.3696.02

100. 00105. 80116. 02127. 15133. 76141. 61152. 09

142. 63144. 56

147. 10150. 98153. 52156. 56

159. 91

Persona

Total

84.688. 592. 596. 6

100. 0105. 5116. 9126. 4133. 1140. 7150.3

141. 6143. 2

146.2149.3151. 6154.0

157.9

1 consume

Durablegoods

90.793. 195.599. 0

100.0101. 6108.4117.7124. 4129.5136.5

129. 5130.9

133. 1135.7137.8139.3

142.2

>tion expe

Non-durablegoods

85.389.493. 696. 6

100.0107.9123. 8133.4138.2145.0155. 0

145.7147.0

150.4154.4156. 2158.8

164.4

nditures

Services

82.086. 190. 595.8

100. 0104. 7113.6123. 2131. 6141. 0151.2

142. 3144. 4

147. 1149.9152. 6155.2

158.0

Grossdom

mvesi

Nonres-identi al

fixed

82.686. 691.396.4

100.0103. 8115.3132.2138. 4146. 7158.7

147. 9151.2

153. 6156.7160.6163. 6

166.3

privateestic;ment

Resi-dentialfixed

80.787. 790.694.9

100. 0110. 8122. 3132.8142. 5159.4178.8

160. 6166. 1

168.6175.7182. 6188. 2

191.4

Exporimports

and S€

Exports

85.387. 993. 196.6

100. 0116.2148.3163.6170. 1178.7191.3

179.4179.2

183.3189.4192. 8198. 7

203.9

ts andof goods»rviees

Imports

80.983.389. 193. 5

100.0118.2171.0188.0193. 5210.3219.7

212.9210.2

213.8217. 2221.5226. 1

232. 1

Governnchases c

and sc

Federal

76.480. 086.492.6

100.0105.8115.9127.5134.4142.7153.3

142.7146.9

149.6151. 5153. 4158.5

161.3

lent pur->f goods»rvices

Stateandlocal

76.981. 988.394. 5

100:0107.3118.4129.7138. 1148.5160.4

149.7152.3

155.2158. 8162. 1165. I

168. 5

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19681969197019711972197319741975197619771978

1977: IIIIV

1978: IIIIIIIV

1979: !*___

Cur-rentdol-lars

9. 17.75.08.2

10. 111.68. 18.2

11.211.011.7

11. 18.9

7.120.69.6

15.6

9.3

Gross

Con-stant(1972)dol-lars

4.42.6-.33.05.75.5

-1.4-1.3

5.74.94.0

5.73.2

-. 18.72.66.9

.4

national p

Im-plicitpricede-

flator

4.55.05.45. 14. 15.89.79.65.25.97.4

5. 15.5

7.211.06.98.2

8.8

roduct

Chainpriceindex

4.45.05.35.04.16.09.99.45.66.27.5

4.66.5

7.110.87.68.1

9.3

Fixed-weight-

edpriceindex(1972

weights)

4.35.05.24.94.06.0

10.29.35. 66.37.6

4.76.8

7.011.07.68.4

9.6

Cur-rentdol-lars

9. 17.85.08. 1

10. 111.57.98.5

11.010.911.7

11.29.5

6.720. 110.215.5

9.0

Gross c

Con-stant(1972)dol-lars

4.42.6-.32.85.85.4

-1.3-1. 1

5. 64.84.0

5.83.5

-.48.33.06.9

.3

lomestic j

Im-plicitpricede-

flator

4.55. 15.35. 14. 15.79.39.75.25.87.4

5. 15.8

7.110.97.08. 1

8.7

>roduct

Chainpriceindex

4.45.05.35.04. 15.99.69.45.76. 17.5

4.56.7

7.110.97.58.1

9.2

Fixed-weight-

edpriceindex(1972

weights)

4.45.05.24.94.05.99.99.35.76.37.7

4.67.0

7.011.07.68.4

9.6

NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes fromprevious quarter.


NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19671968196919701971__ —1972197319741975197619771978

1977: III_.IV.__

1978: I!!___.Ill—IV__.

1979: !*___

Gross dprodi

nonfineorp<busi

(billicdoll

Currentdollars

452.9498.4541.8560.6602.5671.0752. 0808.8874. 1988.5

1, 103. 21, 240. 6

1, 124. 61, 146. 3

1, 161. 61, 233. 01, 260. 61, 307. 0

1, 336. 5

omesticLCt ofancial>rateness>ns ofars)

1972dollars

545.8581.6607. 3600.6619.3671.0720.4695.0680.0730.0769.3810. 4

776.7783. 6

783.6811.9814.9831.0

835. 1

C

Totalcostand

profit 2

0.830.857.892.933.973

1.0001. 0441. 1641.2851.3541.4341.531

1. 4481.463

1. 4821. 5191.5471.573

1.600

urrent-do

Capitalcon-

sumptionallow-anceswith

capitalcon-

sumptionadjust-ment

0. 072.074.079.088. 094.093.095. 116. 142. 146. 150. 156

. 151

. 152

. 155

. 153

. 158

. 158

. 160

lar cost a

Indirectbusinesstaxes 3

0.084.089.094. 103. 110. 110. 112. 123. 136. 136. 140. 146

. 140

. 142

. 145

. 145

. 145

. 147

. 149

nd profit

Com-pen-

sationof

employ-ees

0.535.553.589.628.645.661. 699. 796.848.891.952

1. 029

.955

.973

1.0081.0171.0381.053

1.089

3er unit

Netin-

terest

0.016.017.022.028.029.028.032.043.045. 042.044.046

.044

.045

.046

.045

.046

.046

.048

of outpu

Corpoinvent<

capit£

Total

0. 123. 124. 109.086.095. 107. 105.086. 113. 139. 148. 154

. 158

. 151

. 129

. 157

. 160

. 169

. 154

t (dollars)

rate profi3ry valuatal consunidjustmen

Profitstax

liability

0.051.058.055.045.048.050. 055. 061. 060.073.077.085

.076

.077

.071

. 086

.086

.094

.087

i

ts withion andiptionts

Profitsaftertax 4

0.072.066. 055. 041. 046.057. 050. 024.053.066.071.070

.082

.074

.057

.071

.074

.075

.067

Outputper

hourof all

employ-ees

(1972dollars)

6.9067. 1337. 1547. 1477. 3897.6317. 7897.4907. 7217.9628. 0578. 142

8. 1138. 103

8.0538. 1398. 1658. 209

8. 140

Com-pen-

sationper

hourof all

employ-ees

(dollars)

3.6943. 9444.2074.4874. 7665. 0485.4465.9596.5507. 0937.6678.381

7.7467. 881

8. 1178.2818.4718. 645

8.8681 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinaneial corporate

business in 1972 dollars.2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonflnancial cor-porate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer paymentsless subsidies.

* With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De-partment of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1968_ _ _1969197019711972_ _19731974 _1975197619771978

1977: III.IV

1978: I...IIIIIIV

1979:1*

Na-tional

income

714. 4767. 9798.4858. 1951. 9

1, 064. 61, 136. 01, 215. 01, 359. 21, 515. 31, 703. 7

1,537. 61, 576. 9

1, 603. 11, 688. 11, 728. 41, 795. 2

1, 835. 4

Com-pensa-tion of

em-ploy-ees 1

519. 8571.4609. 2650. 3715. 1799. 2875.8931. 1

1, 036. 81, 153. 41, 301. 4

1, 165. 81, 199. 7

1, 241. 01, 287. 8I, 317. 11, 359. 8

I, 406. 8

Proprmcom

inventortion anc

consuladjust

Farm

12. 013.913.914. 318. 032. 025.423. 518.420. 225.3

16. 525. 1

21.924. 025.030. 4

30. 6

ietors'e withy valua-l capitalnptionments

Non-farm

51.452. 351.253. 458. 160. 460. 963.570. 279. 587.8

80.882. 3

83. 186. 189. 692. 6

93.0

Rental

of per-sonswith

capitalcon-

sump-tion

adjust-ment

18.618. 118. 620. 121. 521. 621.422. 422. 522.523.4

22. 422. 7

22. 822. 224. 324. 4

24. 7

Corpprand

Total

85.881.467.977. 292. 199. 183.695. 9

127.0144. 2159. 5

154. 8148.2

132. 6163.4165. 2176. 6

166. 0

ate profitcapital co

Profitsvalua

and ^consum

Total

82. 177.966.476.989. 697.286. 5

107. 9141.4159. 1177.6

169.9163. 5

148. 7180. 6184.5196. 4

186. 7

s with invnsumptio

5 with invbion ad juswithout aption adjt

Profitsbefore

tax

85. 683. 471.582. 096. 2

115.8126.9120. 4155. 9173.9202.0

177. 5178. 3

172. 1205. 5205.4224.9

226. 9

entorv van adjustm

entorytmentipitaljstment

Inven-tory

valua-tion

adjust-ment

-3.4-5.5-5. 1-5.0-6.6

-18. 6-40. 4-12.4-14.5-14. 8-24.4

n n

-14.8

-23. 5-24. 9-20.9-28.4

-40.2

luationents

Capitalcon-

sump-tion

adjust-ment

3. 73. 51.5. 3

2. 51.9

-2.9-12. 0-14.4-14.9-18. 1

-15.0-15. 3

-16. 1-17.2-19.3-19. 9

-20. 7

Netinterest

26. 830.837. 542. 847.052. 369. 078. 684.395. 4

106.3

97.399.0

101.7104. 6107.4111.4

114. 51 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)

Period

19681969197019711972___ _ _19731974197519761977 _1978

1977: III___.IV

1978:1IIIIIIV

1979: I P

Totalpersonal

con-sumptionexpendi-

tures

535. 9579.7618.8668. 2733.0809. 9889. 6979. 1

1, 090. 21, 206. 51, 340. 1

1, 214. 51, 255. 2

1, 276. 71, 322. 91, 356. 91, 403. 9

1, 440. 4

D

Totaldurablegoods 1

80.085.584. 997. 1

111. 2123. 7122. 0132. 6156. 6178.4197. 5

177.4187. 2

183. 5197. 8199.5209. 1

211. 4

urable goo

Motorvehicles

andparts

35.837. 734. 943.850. 655.248. 053.469.781.589. 7

79.584. 0

84. 192.589.892.6

96.2

ds

Furni-tureand

house-hold

equip-ment

32.635. 036. 739.444. 850. 754.958. 063.971. 377. 7

72. 075.3

72. 176.578. 983. 2

82.5

Totalnon-

durablegoods l

230. 4247. 0264. 7277. 7299. 3333. 8376. 3408. 9442. 6479.0526.5

479.7496. 9

501.4519. 3531.7553.4

567. 9

Nondura

Food

118.3126. 1136.3140. 6150.4168. 1189. 8209. 6225.8245. 2269.4

246. 4252. 6

257. 7267.8272.0279. 9

289. 7

Die goods

Clothingand

shoes

41.845. 146. 650.555. 161. 365.370. 175. 781. 589.0

81.486.7

82.987. 590. 595.3

93. 6

Gasolineand oil

18.420. 422. 023. 424. 927.836.439. 542. 846. 551. 2

46. 047. 5

48. 349. 151. 555.8

59.6

Services

225. 6247.2269. 1293. 4322.4352. 3391. 3437. 5491.0549. 2616.2

557. 5571. 1

591.8605. 8625. 8641.4

661.0

Retailnew pacars ( n

of ui

Do-mes-tics

8. 68.57. 18. 79.39. 77.57. 18. 69. 19. 3

8.99. 0

8. 710.09. 39.2

9.3

sales ofssengerlillionslits)

Im-ports

1.01. 11.31.61. 61.81.41. 61. 52. 12.0

2.02.0

2. 12. 12.01.9

2. 31 Total includes other items not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

4Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $6.0 billion (annual rate) in April, following revised increases of $22.5 billion in March and$14.3 billion in February. The slower growth in April was partly due to work stoppages, widespread flooding, andtornaddes.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)2;000,1,80011,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

100

80

60

r

1971 1972

-WAGf AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

„„,..«'»" ««"«

TRANSFERPAYMENTS

1973

OTHER INCOME

1974 1975

i i i i i I i i i i i1976 1977

OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)2,00)1,8001,600 j

1,400j

1,200

1,000

800

600

1978 1979

400

200

100

80

60

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1971 .19721973197419751976___1977 ....1978 .

1978: AprMayJune —July.-.AugSept__-OctNovDec

1979: JanFeb *.._Mar *>___Apr * > _ _ _

Totalpersonalincome

859. 1942.5

1, 052. 41, 154. 91, 255. 51, 380. 91, 529. 01, 708. 0

1, 669. 41, 682. 11, 695. 71, 719. 21, 731. 11, 744. 71, 768. 71, 786. 61, 811. 6

1, 819. 01, 833. 31, 855. 81, 861. 8

Wageand

salarydisburse-ments *

579.4633.8701.3764.6805. 9890. 1983.6

1, 100. 9

1, 083. 91, 088. 41, 098. 41, 108. 21, 111.31, 120. 11, 137. 51, 149. 31, 161. 4

1, 173. 01, 183. 71, 199. 51, 201. 9

Otherlabor

income12

36.242.048.755.665. 177. 090.4

105.9

102.7104. 0105. 4106.7107.9109. 1110.4111.8113. 1

114.5115. 9117.3118. 6

Proprietc

Farm

14.318.032.025.423. 518.420. 225.3

22. 024. 825.324. 024. 926.027.429.034.9

31.030.530.330.5

>rs' income 3

Nonfarm

53.458.160.460.963.570.279.587.8

85.586. 186.788.490. 190.292.092.693.3

92.692.793.693. 9

Rentalincome

ofpersons 4

20.121.521.621.422.422.522.523.4

22.322. 122. 124. 324. 324.224.324.424. 4

24. 524. 724.823. 9

Divi-dends

23.024.627.831.031. 937.943.749.3

47.448. 049.049. 250. 350.751.351.852.6

53.654.254.254.4

Personalinterestincome

69.374.684. 1

103.0115.5126.3141.2159.0

154.8156.5157.6159.6161.9163.6165.1166. 1168.5

170.1172.5174.5175.6

Transferpay-

ments 5

9411041118.9140.8178.2193.9208.8226.0

219.7221.3220. 8229.0230.8231.5232.2233.6235.9

237.8238.0241.2242.6

Less: Per-sonal con-tributionsfor socialinsurance

30.834242.247.750.555.561.069.7

68.969. 069.670.370.470.871.672.072.6

78.278.779.679.7

Non-farm

personalincome 8

838.0917.3

1, OIL 91, 119. 3I, 220. 81, 349. 51, 494. 41, 666. 9

1, 631. 91, 641. 81, 654 7lf 679. 41, 690. 31, 702. 61, 725. 11, 741. 31, 760. 3

1, 771. 21, 785. 71, 808. 21, 813. 8

* The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differsfrom compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contribu-tions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.3 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfarefunds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.1 With capital consumption adjustment.

5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veteranspayments.8 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors* income, farm wages, farm otherlabor income, and agricultural net interest.



DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEReal per capita disposable income rose again in the first quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

i l l 1 1 1 l i t I !

3,000 3,000

1971


SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1979

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1970 ___19711972_ - _ . _ _19731974__ _1975 _197619771978

1977: III__IV. _

I_II ...III__IV—

1979: 1 *___

Per-sonal

income

801.3859.1942.5

1, 052. 41, 154 91, 255. 51, 380. 91, 529. 01, 708. 0

I, 543. 71, 593. 0

1, 628. 9I, 682. 41, 731. 71, 789. 0

1, 836. 0

T _. __ ..Less:Pot-

sonaltaxandnon-taxpay-

ments

Bii115.3116.3141.2150.8170.3168.8196. 5226.0256.2

2246233.3

237.3249. 1263.2275. 1

272.9

Equals:Dispos-

ableper-sonal

income

Ions of d

685. 9742.8801.3901.79846

1, 086. 71, 184 41, 303. 01, 451. 8

1, 319. 11, 359. 6

1, 391. 61, 433. 31, 468. 41, 513. 9

1, 563. 2

Less:Per-sonalout-

1

ollars

635.4685.5751.9831.3913.0

1, 003. 01, 116. 31, 236. 11, 374 9

Seas

1» 244 81, 285. 9

1, 309. 21, 357. 01, 392. 51, 440. §

1, 478. 3

Equals :Per-sonalsaving

50.657.349.470.371.783.668.066. 976.9

onally ad;

74373.7

82.476.376.073.0

84.9

Per cdispo

persona

Currentdollars

3S3483,5883,8374,2854,6465,0885, 5046,0096,643

usted

6,0776f250

6,3876,5666?7126,906

7,117

apitasableincome

1972dollars

Dol

3,6193,7143,8374,0623,9734,0254,1364,2714,421

4,2934,365

4,3704,3994,4284,485

4,508

Per capsonal cc

CurrentdoEars

lars

3,0203,2273,5103,8494,1974,5845,0665,5646,132

5,5955,770

5,8596,0606,2036,404

6,558

ita per-MQsump- ••

1972dollars

3,265- 3, 342

3,5103,6483,5893,6273, 8083S9554?080

3,9534,030

4,0094,0604,0924, 159

4, 154 j

Percentchangein real

percapitadispos-

ableper-sonal

income

3.02.63.35.9

-2.21.32.83.33.5

5.06.9

.52.72.75.2

2. 1

Savingas per-cent ofdispos-

ableper-sonal

income

7.47.76.27.87.37.75.75. 15.3

5.65.4

- 5.95.35.24.8

5.4

Popula-tion

(thou-sands) 2

204, 878207, 053208, 846210, 410211,945213, 566215, 191216, 856218, 547

217, 073217, 541

217, 897218, 290218, 768219f 233

219, 635

i Includes persona! consumption expenditures, interest by consumers tobusiness, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).3 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 andare averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly are average for theperiod.

Source: Department of of Economic Analysis Bureauof the Census).


FARM INCOMEAccording to revised estimates for the first quarter, net farm income before inventory adjustment rose $1.8 billion(annual rate), while income after inventory adjustment rose $0.3 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

160

140

120


140

120

100

80

60

40

100

60

40

GROSS FARM INCOMEBEFORE INVENTORY "

ADJUSTMENT

NET FARM INCOMEAFTER INVENTORY

ADJUSTMENT

20

V

10 101971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979


SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

197119721973197419751976197719781977:III___

IV—.

1978: IIIIII__.IV

1979: I P

Personaby tota

Fromall

sources

28.834.648.945.244.541. 243.053.2

1 incomefarm po

Fromfarm

sources

13.516.929. 223.421.916. 918.325.3

receivedpulation

Fromnonfarmsources

15.317.819.721.822.724.424.727.8

Gross i

Total l

60.670. 195.5

100.096.9

104. 1108. 1124.3102.7114.8

118.3123.0122.6133.2

139.0

ncome be:justn

Gasi

Total

Billioi52.961.287. 192.488.294.596. 1

110.291.399.6

104.6109.3109.0117.7

125.4

rore invenlent

i receiptsnarketing

Live-stockand

productsis of dolla

30.635.745.941. 443.046. 247. 658.047.849.5

52.757.457.764.0

68.5

Income n

tory ad-

froms

Crops

rs

22.325.541. 151. 145.148.348.552. 243.550. 1

51.951.951.353.7

56.9

jceived frc

Produc-tion ex-penses

47.452.365.672.275.983.088.096. 186.091.4

92.595.095.5

101.5

105.5

>m farmin

Nett<oper

Beforeinven-tory

adjust-ment

13.217.829.927.721.121. 120. 128.216.723.4

25.828.027. 131.7

33.5

g

3 farmators

Afterinven-tory

adjust-ment 2

14.618.733.326. 124. 518.820. 628. 816.825.5

26.328.027. 633.2

33.5

Net inccfarm a

ventorymei

Currentdollars

Dol

5,0426,526

11, 8139,3498,8456,8487,592

10, 7806,2109,420

9,84010, 48010, 33012, 430

12, 750

me perfter in-adjust-

it3

1967dollars 4

lars

4,1575,2088,8756,3305,4874,0164, 1835,5203,3905,080

5,2205,4205,2206, 160

6, 160

1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoneyincome furnished by farms.

2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year.3 Based on 1969 Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of

farms is held constant within a year. Data for 1979 estimated.

* Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index.Source: Department of Agriculture.


CORPORATE PROFITSAccording to preliminary estimates for the first quarter, corporate profits before tax rose $2.0 billion (annual rate)while after-tax profits rose $7.4 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

240

200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

240

200

40 - 40

1971 1979


[Bullions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1968 .196919701971197219731974 _1975 _19761977___19781977: III

IV1978: I

IIIIIIV

1979: I*

Profit

Total *

82. 177.966. 476.989. 697.286.5

107.9141.4159. 1177.6169.9163.5148. 7180.6184.5196.4186.7

s (before

Total

78.974.262. 672.484.790.476.9

101.8133.2149.5167.7159.5155.6139. 2168.9175.4187.4175.9

tax) witadjustn

Dome

Finan-cial

10. 411.312. 614. 115.416.214. 413.017.520. 925. 121.921.922.724.326.027.627.1

i inventclent J

=tie indu

IS

Total8

68.562.950. 158.269. 374. 162.588.9

115.6128.6142.6137.6133.7116.6144.6149.4159.8148.7

>ry valu*

stries

onfinanc

Manu-fac-tur-ing

41.236.827. 132.440. 644. 136.648.365.674.785.074.780.269. 887.887.195.2

ition

jial

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

10. 110. 19. 4

11.713. 314.712. 920.724.024.022.730.622. 116. 722.025.826.3

Profitsbefore

tax

85.683.471.582.096.2

115.8126.9120.4155.9173.9202.0177.5178.3172. 1205.5205.4224.9226.9

Taxlia-

bility

39. 439.734.537. 741.548. 752.449.864. 371.883.972.873.970.085.086.294.489. 1

Pro

Total

46. 243.837.044. 354.667. 174.570.691.7

102. 1118. 1104.8104.4102. 1120.5119.2130.5137.9

fits after

Divi-dends

21.922. 622.923.024.627.831.031.937.943.749.344. 146.347. 048. 150. 151.954.0

tax

Un-dis-trib-utedprof-

its

24.221. 214. 121.330.039.343.638.753.858.468.860.658.155. 172.469.278.683.9

Inven-tory

valua-tion

adjust-ment

-3.4-5.5-5. 1-5.0-6.6

-18.6-40.4-12.4-14.5-14.8-24.4-7.7

-14.8-23.5-24.9-20.9— 28.4-40.2

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumptionadjustments. ,

8

2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.3 Includes industries not shown separately.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTAccording to revised estimates for the first quarter, business fixed investment rose $7.0 billion (annual rate) as non-residential construction outlays rose slightly and producers' durable equipment purchases increased $6.9 billion.Residential investment outlays declined $3.0 billion. Inventory investment amounted to $16.6 billion, up $3.1 billionfrom the fourth quarter level.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS "(RATIO SCALE)

380 -GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT"

220

200

180I I

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)180

- NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT

140

100

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)130

110

90

on

70

AO

RESIDENTIAL

-

-

-

/

J^L_L-J1975

FIXED INVESTS

yi i i

1976

4ENT

/^

I I I1977

s^

I I ' I1978

*

-

-

I I I1979

60

PRODUCERS'

DURABLE EQUIPMENT

I

STRUCTURES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

40

20

Q

-20

Af)

-CHANGE IN

_

/V^-/*I ' I I

1975

BUSINESS INN

f \>

I I i1976

fENTORIES —

/•"\1r

1 1 !1977

^\_*

. 1 1 11978

***

-

I I I1979

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1968 ..1969197019711972_1973 „ _ _197419751976197719781977:111

IV1978:1

IIIIIIV-

1979: I*

Grossprivatedomes-

ticinvest-ment

131.5146.2140. 8160. 0188.3220. 0214. 6190.9243.0297. 8345. 6309.7313.5322.7345. 4350. 1364.0

371.1

Noi

Total

89.398.9

100.5104. 1116.8136.0150.6150. 2164.6190.4222. 6193. 5200.3205. 6220. 1227. 5237. 1

244. 1

iresident

Struc

Total

31. 635.737. 739.342.549.054. 553.857.363.977.865. 467.468. 576. 680.985. 1

85.2

ial fixed

jtures

Non-farm

30.434.336. 137.841. 146. 951. 851. 354. 761. 074.562.764. 565. 273.478.081.8

81.6

investm«

Prodidur

equip

Total

57. 763.362.864. 774.387. 096. 296.4

107. 3126. 5144. 8128. 1132.8137. 1143.5146. 6152.0

158.9

mt

ncers1

ablement

Non-farm

53. 458.958. 159. 969. 180. 188. 287.497. 5

116. 7133.8118. 6123.4127.2132. 9135.5140.9

147.6

Resid

Total

34.537. 936. 649.662.066. 155. 151. 568.291.9

107.094.3

100.2100.3105. 3109.0113.4

110.4

ential fix

Non-farm

struc—tures

33. 136. 335. 147.960.364. 352. 749. 565.888.9

103.891. 297. 597.3

102. 1105. 7110.2

107. 2

ed inves

Farmstruc-tures

0.6. 7. 6. 7. 7.6

1. 2. 9

1. 11. 51. 41. 61.21. 31. 41. 51. 5

1. 3

tment

~prn.dueers'

dur-able

equip-ment

0.8.9.9

1.01. 11. 21.21. 11. 31. 51. 71. 51. 61. 71.81.71.7

1.8

Changeness inv

Total

7.79.43.86.49. 4

17.98.9

-10. 710.215. 616.021. 913. 116.720. 113. 613.5

16.6

in busi-entories

Non-farm

7.69. 23.75. 18.8

14.710.8

-14. 312.215.016.722. 010.416.922. 114.613.4

17.8

Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTBusiness plans to increase capital spending 11.3 percent in 1979, according to the Commerce Department surveyconducted in late January and February. Spending in 1978 was 13.3 percent above 1977.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

40

20 201971 1972

J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW,

SOURCI: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979


Period

1972 _197319741975. _ _1976 _19771978 _1979 4_ _ _

1978:1 __.„!!_„IllIV

1979: I 4 _II4 _ _2ndhalf4 _

Total i

88. 4499. 74

112. 40112. 78120. 49135. 80153. 82171. 14

144. 25150. 76155. 41163. 96

164. 23167. 52

176. 09

Mi

Total

31.3538. 0146. 0147.9552. 4860. 1667.6277.54

61.5767. 2067. 7573.24

71.9775.90

80.93

Ei

inufacturi

Dur-able

goods

15. 6419. 2522. 6221. 8423. 6827. 7731.6637. 84

28. 7231. 4032.2533. 99

34.1837.09

39.88

q>enditur€

ng

Non-durablegoods

15. 7218. 7623.3926. 1128. 8132.3935.9639. 70

32.8635.8035.5039.26

37. 7838. 81

41.05

;s for plan

Total

57.0961.7366.3964. 8268. 0175. 6486. 1993. 60

82. 6883. 5687.6690. 71

92.2691.62

95.16

t and equ

N<

Mining

2.422. 743. 183.794.004.504.785.08

4.454.814.994.98

5.354.89

5. 12

ipment

immanuf

Trans-porta-tion

5.726.036.667.577.456.938. 059.38

8.467.408.058.43

10.068.36

9. 72

aeturing

Publicutili-ties

17. 0018.7120. 5520. 1422. 2825.8029.4832.40

27.9228.4629. 6231.73

32.3031.91

32. 77

Com-muni-cation

11. 8912.8513.9612. 7413.3015.4518. 1619.28

17.0718. 1813.9018.46

44.46.

47.

Com-mer-cialand

other 2

20. 0721.4022. 0520. 6020. 9922. 9725. 7127.45

247624.7126.0927. 12

5446

55

Starts cand eqi

proj<

Manu-factur-

ing

35.2147.5752.4948. 2451. 0566.7372.44

17.4118. 1016.9619.97

)f plantlipment3CtS 3

Publicutili-ties

28. 6038. 1345.7434. 5029. 6632. 5434. 93

7.987. 784.40

14.00

1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educa-tional, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do notagree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross nationalproduct estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers,professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlayscharged to current account.

2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.8 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during

given period.4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late January and

February 1979. Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCESeasonally adjusted employment fell by 668,000 in April while unemployment increased by 66,000.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

80

10 10

- 5

1971

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1979


Period

1974_______1975197619771978*

1978: Apr*-May__June-July-Aug__Sept..Oct___Nov__Dec__

1979: Jan__.Feb..Mar__Apr

Nonin-stitu-tional

popula-tion

150, 827153, 449156, 048158, 559161, 058

U

160, 504160, .713160, 928161, 148161, 348161, 570161, 829162, 033162S 250

162, 448162, 633162, 909163, 008

Civilianemploy-

ment

85, 93584, 78387, 48590, 54694, 373

nad justed

93, 18093, 85195, 85296, 20296, 11695, 04196, 09596, 02995, 906

94, 43694, 76595, 50195, 675

[T

Unem-ploy-ment

5,0767,8307,2886,8556,047

5,6855,4576,3266,4385,9315,7975,4605, 6295,725

6, 4316,4846, 1655,561

housands

Totallaborforce

(includ-ing

ArmedForces)

93, 24094, 79396, 91799, 534

102, 537

101, 885102, 222102, 602102, 738102, 785103, 097103, 199103, 745103, 975

104, 277104, 621104; 804104, 193

of person

Civilianlaborforce

91,01192, 61394, 77397, 401

100, 420

99, 767100, 109100, 504100, 622100, 663100, 974101, 077101, 628101, 867

102, 183102, 527102, 714102, 111

s 16 years

C

Total

85, 93584, 78387, 48590, 54694, 373

93, 70493, 95394, 64094, 44694, 72395, 01095, 24195, 75195, 855

96, 30096, 64796, 84296, 174

of age a

ivilian e

Agri-cul-tural

3,4923,3803,2973,2443,342

Seas<

3,2743,2433,4243,3773,3513,4063,3743,2753,387

3,2323,3113,3433, 186

nd over]

mploymei

N onagri

Total

82, 44381, 40384, 18887, 30291, 031

snally adj

90, 43090, 71091, 21691, 06991, 37291, 60491, 86792, 47692, 468

93, 06893, 33593, 49992, 987

it

[cultural

Part-timefor eco-nomic

reasons l

2,7093,4903,2723,2973,216

usted

3,3103,2473,4333,3163,2983,2033, 1643, 1313,058

3, 1593,1473,1793,312

Unempl

Total

5,0767,8307, 2886,8556,047

6,0636, 1565,8646, 1765,9405, 9645,8365,8776,012

5,8835, 8815,8715,937

oyment

15weeksandover

9372,4832,3391,9111,379

1,4861,404

I- 1, 2661,3141,2341,2681,3171, 1961,208

1,2511,2601,3051,235

Laborforce

partici-pationrate(per-

i \ ocent) 2

61.861.862.162.863.7

63.563.663.863.863.763.863.864. 064. 1

64.264.364.363. 9

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material short-ages, inability to find full-time work, etc.

2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age andover.

* Beginning 1978, data not strictly comparable with earlier data because ofrevisions in the household surYey, which added about 250,000 to labor force andto employment.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESIn April the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.8 percent.

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

0 i i i 1 1 1 i i i i i i i i 1 1 I 1 1 1 i i i i i 1 1 I 1 1 i i i i i i 1 1 I i i i i i I i i i i I I I i 1 1

10

1975 1976 ,J977 1978* UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1979

10

1979


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19741975197619771978

1978: AprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct -Nov.Dec

1979: Jan.. _FebMar_ _Apr

Total(all

civil-ian

work-ers)

5.68.57.77.06.0

6. 16. 15.86. 15.95.95.85.85.9

5.85.75.75.8

Uner

By g

Men20

yearsandover

3.86.75.95.24.2

4.34.24.04.14. 14. 14.03.94.1

4.04.04.04.0

nployme

sex and a

Women20

yearsandover

5.58.07.47.06.0

6.06.26.16.45.95.95.65.85.8

5.75.75.75.7

nt rate (

€e

Bothsexes16-19years

16.019.919. 017.716.3

16.716.515. 116.315.716.316.216.216.5

15.716. 115.516.5

percent c

By

White

5.07.87.06.25.2

5.25.35.05.25.25.25.15.05.2

5.14.95.04.9

>f civiliai

race

Blackand

other

9.913.913. 113. 111.9

12.012.312.012.311.511.311.311.711.5

11.211.911.211.8

i labor f<

]

Expe-riencedwageand

salaryworkers

5.38.27.36.65.6

5.65.75.45.75.55.65.45.45.6

5.45.35.35.4

Dree in gi

3y select

House-holdheads

3.35.85. 14.53.7

3.73.83.73.83.73.63.53.43.5

3.43.53.43.6

roup)

ed group

Full-timework-

ers

5. 18. 17.36.55.5

5.55.65.35.75.45.45.25.25.3

5.25.25.15.3

s

Part-timework-

ers

8.610.310. 19.89.0

9.49.29.08.98.78.89.08.99.2

9.18.69.28.8

Laborforcetimelost(per-

cent) *

6.19.18.37.66,5

6.56.66.56.86.56.46.26.26.2

6.26.26.16.5

* Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for eco-nomic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of labor Statistics.


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYI1ENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSUR-ANCE PROGRAMSIn April the percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers rose and the percentage who were job leavers,reentrants, and new entrants fell.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

60

40

20

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

JOB LOSERS

NEW

REENTRANTS

ENTRANTS

\£*V*^

JOB LEAVERS

1976 1977* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

0 I i i i 1 1 I 1 1 i i i IN i i I i ii i i ii i i i I i 1 1 i i i i i i i 1 1 ii i i i i i i 1 1 i i i 1 11978 1979

60

40

20

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

1980 1976

"\

1977

15-26WEEKS

27 WEEKSAND OVER

1 i | 1 1 i 1 1 1 1

**%

***

1978 1979 1980

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERsl

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19741975197619771978.______1978: Apr..

May.June.July__Aug__Sept..Oct__Nov__Dec..

1979: Jan.__Feb___Mar. _Apr___

Unem-__i _.__ploy-ment(thou-sands)

5,0767,8307,2886,8556,0476,0636? 1565,8646,1765,9405,9645,8365,8776,0125,8835, 8815,8715,937

Percerpl

Joblosers

43. 455.449. 845.341.642.042.740.841.441. 639.742. 240.740.241.641.841.342. 2

it distriboyment

Jobleavers

14. 910.412.213. 014.114.413.514.613.914.214.314.014.214.315.714.014.614.2

ution ofay reasoi

Reen-trants

28.423. 826.028. 130.028.729.330.630.529.532.429.630. 131.928.729.630.230.0

unem-i*

Newen-

trants

13.310.412. 113.714.314.914.614.014.214.813.714.215.013.614. 014.713.913. 6

PerceEplo

Lessthan 5weeks

50.637. 038.341.746.245. 146.946.648.247.247. 146.748. 847.446.446.746.548.6

it distribyment b

5-14weeks

31.031. 329. 630.531.030.530.232. 130.432.031.530.730.632.632. 131.831.431. 0

ution ofy duratic

15-26weeks

11. 116. 513. 813. 112. 313.311.811.310.910.611.212. 611.812.012. 512. 112. 311. 4

unem-m 1

27weeksandover

7.315.218.314.810.511. 111. 110. 010.510.310.210. 08.87.99.09.39.79.0

State pi

Insuredunem-ploy-ment

Wee

2,2623,9862,9912,6552,3562, 3072,2232,2472,3742,4482,2922,2342,2302,2522, 3672,3492,3232,367

^ograms

Initialclaims

*kly aver

363478382375342338331347364345326325338339350341349433

Insuredunem-ploy-ment.

allregular

pro-grams 2

(unad-justed)

age, thou

2, 5584, 9433,8223, 1112,6402,6592,3692,2972,5812,3942,0641,9992,1482,5673, 1983,2092,9212, 611

Specialunem-ploy-ment

benefitclaims 3

(unad-justed)

sands

1, 1731, 152

572

603621

1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-service-

men (DCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includesFederal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federalsupplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).

3 FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reportingbegan March 1975.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employmentand Training Administration).


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricuitural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 72,000 in April.

ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

90

SERVICE PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

_GOODS-PRODUCING_INDUSTRIES

1975 1976* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

20

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

18

16

14

22

MANUFACTURING\

^—

y 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n|

CONSTRUCTION

1 1 1 1 1 11975 1976 1977 1978


[Thousands of wage and salary workers;l seasonally adjusted]

TJ * JFenoa

197419751976___ _19771978..-1978: Apr-

May __June. _July--Aug__Sept__Oct___Nov._.Dec__

1979: Jan. __Feb___Mar *»_Apr »_

Totalnonagri-cuituralemploy-

ment

78, 26576, 94579, 38282, 25685, 76385, 41885, 61885, 99686, 03386, 14986, 16386, 57387, 03687, 28187, 52487, 81888, 24088, 312

C

Total *

24, 79422, 60023, 35224, 28825, 38125, 31325, 34125, 47325, 50125, 46325, 47125, 67025, 87226, 03026, 11126, 19926, 41326, 397

Joods-prc

Con-struc-tion

4,0203,5253,5763,8334,2124, 1644, 1754,2784,3174,2984,2984,3414,3684,3974,3814,3854,5324,534

>ducing i

Ma

Total

20, 07718, 32318, 99719, 64720, 33220, 28220, 29720, 31620, 30220, 27820, 28620, 43620, 60120, 72920, 82520, 89520, 96020, 941

ndustries

tnufactui

Durablegoods

11, 92510, 68811, 07711, 57312, 16012, 07612, 09312, 10912, 13812, 14612, 16612, 30512,41012, 49112, 56212, 64712, 69712, 682

5

•ing

Non-durablegoods

8, 1527,6357, 9208,0748, 1728,2068,2048,2078, 1648, 1328, 1208, 1318, 1918,2388,2638,2488,2638,259

Total

53, 47154, 34556, 03057, 96860, 38260, 10560, 27760, 52360, 53260, 68660, 69260, 90361, 16461, 25161, 41361, 61961, 82761, 915

S

Trans-porta-tionand

publicutilities

4,7254,5424,5824,6964,8594,8474,8474,8814,8274,8464,8554,9224,9474,9674,9745,0015,0244,958

ervice-pr

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

16, 98717, 06017, 75518, 49219, 39419, 25219, 33519, 41219, 46919, 52319, 54619, 63219, 70119, 69719, 81719, 88319, 94919, 992

oducing

Finance,insur-ance,andreal

estate

4, 1484,1654,2714,4524,6764,6234,6374,6704, 6904,7074,7194,7374,7744,7894,8094, 8294,8424,860

industrie

Services

13, 44113, 89214, 55115, 24915, 97915, 86615, 89615, 96315, 98916, 07416, 12716, 16916, 27016, 32716, 35216, 43916, 51216, 569

s

Gover

Federal

2,7242,7482,7332,7272,7532,7452, 7532,7722,7652,7652,7522,7602,7572,7342,7552,7552,7542,755

nment

Stateandlocal

11, 44611, 93712, 13812, 35212, 72312, 77212, 80912, 82512, 79212, 77112, 69312, 68312, 71512, 73712, 70612. 71312, 74612, 781

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricuituralestablishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay periodwhich includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed per-sons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived fromthis table not comparable with estimates of nonagricuitural employment of thecivilian labor force, shown on p. 11. which include proprietors, self-employedpersons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they

are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sampleof the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based onreports from employing establishments.

2 Includes mining, not shown separately.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

14


PRIVATE NONHGRICUIiTURHL INDUSTRIES[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1970 ....1971. .....197219731974 ...197519761977 ....1978— ...

1978; AprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOct.NovDec ...

1979: Jan___Feb_.__Mar»Apr v

Aver

Totalprivate

nonagri-cultural l

37. 136.937.036.936.536. 136. 136.035.8

36. 135.935.935.935.835.835.935.835.9

35.735.735.935.4

age weekly

Manufj

Total

39.839.940.540.740.039.540. 140.340.4

40.840.440. 540.540.340.440.540.740.7

40.740.740.839. 1

hours

acturing

Overtime

3.02.93.53.83.32.63. 13.43.6

3.83.53.63.63.43.63. 63.73.8

3.83.83.82.7

Averaghourly

Totalprivate

nonagri-cultural *

$3.233.453.703. 944.244.534.865.255.69

5.615.625.665.715.735.775.825.875.91

5.975.996.056. 04

*e grossearnings

Manufac-turing

$3.353.573.824.094.424.835.225.686. 17

6.056.086. 126. 186.206.256.326.386.43

6.456.526.566.55

Adjusted h

Index, 1<

Currentdollars

120.7129.2137.5146.0157.5170.7183.0196.8212.6

210.3211.0212. 3214. 1214.6216.2218.0219.0220.7

222.8223. 9225.3226.6

ourly earninnonagric

^67=100

1967dollars 8

103.8106.5109.7109.7106.6105.9107.3108.4108.9

109.6109. 1108.8109. 1108.7108.7108.7108.5108.6

108.6107.8107.3106. 8

igs index — tcultural 2

Percent cha year

Currentdollars

6.67.06.46.27.98.47.27.58. 1

8.28.08. 18.28.28.38.28.28.5

8.18.48.27.8

otal private

ange fromearlier 4

1967dollars

0.72.63.00

-2.8*j—. ̂ j1.31.0.5

1.4.8.7.5.4.0fj

-.6-.6

-1.1-1.5-2.0-2.6

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19701971___1972... _1973-19741975..19761977. ....1978»--.-1978: Apr

May _June _ _JulyAugSeptOctNovDec_

1979: JanFebMar v _Apr v _ _

Total priiagricul

Currentdollars

$119. 83127. 31136. 90145. 39154. 76163. 53175. 45189. 00203. 70202. 52201. 76203. 19204. 99205. 13206. 57208. 94210. 15212. 17213. 13213. 84217. 20213. 82

Average

/ate non-tural *

1967dollars s

$103. 04104. 95109. 26109. 23104. 78101. 45102. 90104. 13104. 30105. 59104. 32104. 20104. 48103. 97103. 86104. 16104. 14104. 41103. 86102. 96103. 48100. 76

gross weekly <

Manufac-turing

i

$133. 33142. 44154. 71166. 46176. 80190. 79209. 32228. 90249. 27246. 84245. 63247. 86250. 29249. 86252. 50255. 96259. 67261. 70262. 52265. 36267. 65256. 11

earnings

Construction

Current dollars

$195. 45211. 67221. 19235. 89249. 25266. 08283. 73295. 65319. 19315. 93314. 39322. 65323. 02323. 51323. 75323. 61324. 58329. 59320. 23329. 42339. 90326. 14

Wholesaleand retail

trade

5

$96. 02101. 09106. 45111. 76119. 02126. 45133. 79142. 52153. 31151. 80151. 34151. 86153. 64154. 16155. 14156. 93157. 77159. 24159. 73160. 23162. 69163. 67

Percent chayear e

total pri\agricul

Currentdollars

4.66.27.56.26. 45.77.37.77.88. 37.57.98. 18.58.58. 18.69. 19.49.68.75.6

^nge from aarlier,rate non-tural5

1967dollars

-1.31.94. 1

-. 0-4. 1-3.2

1.41.0.4

1. 7.4.5.3.6.2

-. 6-.2

. 1

.00

-1.4-4.6

1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.* Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manu-

facturing.3 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index.

Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.

4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.1 Based on unadjusted data.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

45-939 O - 79 - 2 15


PRODUCTIVITY AND DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY

Period

1966___19671968— _ „1969

1970 _19711972.1973— _1974 __

1975—197619771978

IIIIV

1978: I— _II...

• IIII¥

I *___ _

1966— _ _196719681969. ..

19701971 _1972_19731974 _

1975-197619771978 _

III— _ _IV

1978:1—IIIILIV .

1979: I *

Out

Privatebusinesssector

98.0100.0105. 1108.3

107.3110,3117.61245121. 5

118.8126.5133.2139.0

134.2135.5

135.3138.7139.7142.2

142.3

5.52.05.13.0

-.92.86.65.9

-2.4

-2.36.55.344

5.040

-.610.53.07.2

,5

put1

Non-farm

businesssector

98.1100.0105.4ioae107.4110.2117.8125.0121.9

iias127.0133.6139.9

1346135.8

136. 1139.8140.6i4ao143.4

6.01.95.43.0

— 1.12.66.96.0

-2.5

-2.56.95.247

5.03.5

.711.62. 17.2

1.2

Hourspers


100.0100.0101.81046

103.0102.4105.5109.6110. 3

105.6108.6112.6117.2

112.8113.8

115.0117. 5117.4118.9

120.5

Peree

2.3-.01.82.8

-1.6-.63.03.9.7

-432.93.741

-.13.7

409.2

—.45.3

5.3

of allonsf

Non-farm

businesssector

1967=

99.8100.0102. 1105.5

1042103.8107.0111.5112.3

107.4111.0115.3120.2

115.8116.6

117.8120.5120.5122.0

123.7

nt change

3.3.2

2.13.4

— 1.2-.43.142.7

-433.33.942

1.33.0

3.99.8

—.25.1

5.7

Outputof all |


= 100; qua

9ao100.0103.3103.5

1042107.7111.5113.6110.2

112.5116.4118.3118.6

118.9119.0

117.7118.0119.1119.6

118.2

; quarter!

3.22.03.3.2

.73.43.51.9

-3.0

2.13.51.6.3

5.1.4

-451.23.51.7

-46

jer hour»ersons

Non-farm

businesssector

rterly dat

98.4100.0103.2102.9

103.1106.2110. 1112.0108.5

110.61144115.9116.4

116.3116.4

115. 5116.0116.7117.2

116.0

y data at

2.61.73.2-.3

.23.13.71.7

-3.1

1.93.51.3.5

3.7.5

-3.11.72.31.9

-4.3

Compeper I

Pri-vate

businesssector

a season

949100. 0107. 61149

123.1131.4139.7151.21649

181.3197.1213.1232.8

215.4218.9

225.3229.7235.5240.4

246.8

seasonal

7.05.37.66.8

7.16.76.38.29. 1

9.98.78.19.2

9.56.7

12.18. 1

10.48.7

11. 1

nsationlour 8

Non-farm

businesssector

ally adjus

948100.0107.31141

121.7129.9138.4149.2162.8

178.9193.8209.4228.9

211.3215. 2

221.5225.9231. 1236.2

242.0

y adjuste

6.15.57.36.3

6.76.76.57.89.1

9.98.48.19.3

8.17.6

12.28.29.69.1

10.2

UnitCO

Pri-vate

businesssector

ted

96.8100.0104 1111.0

118. 1122.0125.3133. 1149.7

161.2169.3180.2196.3

181. 1183.9

191.4194 6197.8201 1

208.8

d annua'

3.73.3416.6

6.43.22.86.2

12.5

7.75.06.49.0

4.26.3

17.46.86.76.8

16.4

laborsts

Non-farm

businesssector

96.4100.01040110.9

118. 1122.3125.6133.2150.0

161.8169.4180.8196.6

181.71848

191.71947198. 1201.5

208.7

rates

3.53.7406.6

6.53.52.86.0

12.6

7.8476.78.8

427.1

15.76.47.17.0

15.2

Impliciideflal

Pri-vate

businesssector

97.2100.0103.9108.8

113.9118.9123.1130.2143.0

157.4165.4174.9187.9

176.3178. 4

181.3186,6189.9193.5

197.7

3.22.93.947

47443.65.89.8

10.15.15.77.5

5.249

6.712. 17.37.7

9. 1

"» priceuor4

Non-farm

businesssector

96.8100.01040108.6

114.0119. 1122.8127.9141. 3

156.3164.81746186.8

176.4178. 1

180.6185.3188.9192.2

195.8

2.93.3404.5

49453. 14 1

10.5

10.65.45.97.0

6.540

5.810.88.17. 1

7.81 Output to In the in 19722 Hours of all in industry in sector, including

of primarily onestablishment data.3 Wages of for social

and Also an of wages, salaries,and supplemental for the self-employed.4 Current dollar diYlded by dollar gross' domes-tie

NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on originalthey therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes

shown here.Data revised.



PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production declined 1.0 percent in April, mostly as a result of the strike and lockout in the trucking industry.

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)160

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)180

100

1975 1976 1977^ 1978 1979

160

140

120

100

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

1975

MINING

1976

UTILITIES

1977 1978

IV*

1979

PERCENT (RATIO SCALE)100

1,20

100

90

80

70

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1975

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion1972___1973 _19741975 ....1976.197719781978: Mar

AprMay _JuneJuly ...Aug-- ..SeptOct _ .NovDec- . _ _

1979: Jan.FebMar *Apr * > _ _ _

Total inprodu

Index,1967=

100

100. 00119. 7129. 8129.3117.8129.8137. 1145.2140.9143.2143.9144. 9146. 1147. 1147.8148.7149.6150.9150.9151. 0152.0150.5

dustrialction

Per-cent

changefromyear

earlier

9.28.4-.4

-8.910. 25. 65.84. 15.25.05.25.36.56.77. 17.48.08.78. 57.95. 1

InduM

Total

87.95118. 9129.8129.4116.3129. 5137. 1145.7141.4143,5144. 3145. 5146.7147.6148.7149.5150.4151.8151.9152.0152.9151. 3

stry prodianufacturi

Dur-able

51.98113. 7127. 1125.7109. 3121. 7129.5139.3134.4136.9137. 6139.0141. 1142. 2142.8144.0144.8146.4146.0146. 1147.4144.4

iction ind«ng

Non-dur-able

S5.97126. 5133.8134.6126.4140. 9148. 1154.8151.4153. 2154. 0154.9155.0155.6157. 1157. 4158.5159.6160.4160. 4161.2161.2

3xes, 1967

Mining

6. 36113. 1114. 7115. 3112.8114.2117. 8124.2119.3127.2126.7128.0127. 1126. 0124. 1127.6128. 1127.6124.0121.8124. 1123.8

= 100

Utili-ties

5.69139. 4145.4143.7146. 0151.0156.5161.0159.5156.0157. 0158. 6159.9160.8162. 3162.4162.9164.3166.8167.8168. 1168.4

Manufa

Federalsei

Totalmanu-factur-

ing

83. 187. 584.273. 680.282.484.282.783.783.984.384.785.085. 385.585.886. 386.085.886. 184. 9

Lcturing csrate, p(

Reserveles

Mate-rials

88.092.487.773. 680. 481.984.981.984.084.585. 185.785.986.387. 187.688. 187.486.987.586.7

ipacity utsrcent l

Com-merceseries 2

8386837781838484

84

83

84 •

Llization

Whar-ton

series 3

88.193.490.980.386.689.192.589.4

92.2

93.8

94.7

1 Output as percent of capacity.2 Annual data are a¥erages of four monthly indexes.3 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of

quarterly data.

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department ofCommerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Wharton School of Finance.

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion^-- _ „ _l§70—_ __ _ _1§71 ._ _1972____ _ __ . _ . _

.1974 „_ _ _ _1975 _ .1976—.1977- _. _1978 _ _

Apr _May__ _ _June _ ~_

' July.. _ .Aug. _ .

Get _Nov.— __Dec

1979: JanFebMar» _ _Apr »_ _

Total

47.82105.3106.3115.71244125.1118. 2127.21349141.4140.5140.5141. 1142.2143.3143.7144. 11445145.6145.9146.3

' 147. 3145.3

Coi

Total

if. 68109.011471244131.5128.91240136.2143.4147.4147.5147.0147.0147.7148.4149.0149.2149.7150.6150.6150.7151.7149.0

Final!

isumer go

Durablegoods

7.89106. 1118.8133.8146.2135.3121.4141.4153.1158.9161.8160.2160.6160.9161.5160.3161.6161.8161.9160.9161.3163.9153.4

Prod3roducts

ods

Non-durablegoods

19.79110. 1113. 1120.6125.6126.3125. 1134 1139.6142.8141.8141.7141.6142.4143. 1144.41443144 8146.2146.5146.5146.9147.1

luets

Equip

Total

20. 14100. 1947

103.81145120.0110.21146123.2133. 1130.8131.6133.01347136. 3136. 4137.0137.3138.7139.5140. 1141.3140. 5

>ment

Busi-ness

12.63107.0104 1118. 01342142.4128. 2136. 3149.2162.0159.3160.2161. 8163.8165.4165.8166.9167.2168.7169. 7170.5172.0170.8

Intern:prod

Total

12.89112.9116.7126.5137.2135.3123. 1137.2145.1155.3152. 1152.61547155.6156. 4157.0158.0159.3161.8162.6163. 1162.7162. 1

lediateucts

Con-structionsupplies

6. 42111. 0116. 8128.4139.8134 5116.3132.6140.8153.3148.5150.4152. 1153.51547155.6157.0159. 0160.8161.2161.4160.7159.6

Ma-terials

S9. 29109.2111.3122. 3133.9132. 4115.5130.6136.9146.5143.7145. 1146.4147.9148.6149.7151.4152.7153.8153. 1152.7154 1153.0

Sup-ple-men-tary

group:Energytotal

12. 2S117.0119.5125.2128.3125.5125.5128.8132.5135. 1133.11342135.9136.4136. 1135.9137.6138.2139.3138.7137.7139.8139.7

[1967=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1967 proportion _1970 __197119721973 __197419751976__1977.1978—-- — _ __1978: Apr

May__June-JulyAug

Oct___ __Nov.Dec -

1979: Jan _ _ .Feb ___Mar*- _ __Apr *_ _

Primar]

Total

6.57106.6100.2112.1126.7123. 196.4

108.9110.2119.01143115.5117.5123.0126.0127.9128.6129.0130.4122.0121.4121.9121. 1

r metals

Ironandsteel

4. si104796.1

107.1122.3119.895.8

1049103.4113.2109.0110.51145119.0120.9123.2123.812411245112.7112.81145

D

Fabri-catedmetalprod-ucts

6.93102.4103.5112. 112471242109.9123.3130.9142.6139.5140.4142. 31440145.8146. 3146.0146.9149.Q151.0152.2152.3151.0

arable m

Non-

tricalma-chin-ery

9.1$1044100. 2116.0133.7140. 1125.1135.01448155.6152.2152.9154.6156. 1157.3158.7160. 3160.3161.8163.61646166.0165.3

anufaetu

Elec-tricalma-chin-ery

8.05108. 1107.7122.2143. 1143.8116.5131.6141.91543152.3152.91541157.9156.9158.3157.9159.0161.9163.91649166. 1165.2

res

Transpequip

Total

9.2789.597.9

108.2118. 3108.797.4

110.6121. 1130.5130.5130. 1130.4132.1133.4132.8137.0139.3139.5137.7136.3140. 3127. 3

Drtationment

Motorve-

hiclesand

parts

4.5092.3

118.6135. 8148.8128.2111. 1140.7159.7168.3171.7168.3167.7169.7171.0168.9176.8180.8179.71745171.4177.9153.8

Lum-berand

prod-ucts

1.64105.6113.8120.8126.0116.2107.6125. 1133.4138.9136.9136. 5138.7138. 1136.9139.2141.2142.5146.0142.0141. 1140.0

None

Ap-parelprod-ucts

S.S1101.41047109.4117. 31143107.6122. 2124 2126.3126. 1125.8126.81245127.2130.9130.6129.9131.4132.3130. 2

lurable E

Print-ingandpub-

lishing

4.72107.0107. 1112.7118.2118.2113. 3120.61247129.9128.6128.2128.7130.3129.5131.0130.5132. 1133.0135.8137. 1136.8137.0

aanufact

Chem-icalsand

prod-ucts

7. 74120.4125.9143.61545159.4147.2169.3180.7190.7185.5188. 1191.1192.3192.21942195.9197.6197.9200.8201.4201.3

ures

Foods

8.75108.9112.8116.8120.91240123.4132.3137.9142.9143. 1142.8141.8142.914401444143.21442145.7145.5146.5147.1

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


NEW CONSTRUCTION

Period

1972197319741975197619771978.—

1978: MarAprMayJune _ _JulyAug.SeptOctNovDec

1979: JanFeb*Mar *Apr _ ._

Totalconstruc-

tionexpendi-tures

124 1137.9138.51345148.8172.6202.2

185.4195.0201.3206.3209.9208.4209.8212.0215.8218.5208.6205.6211.6

Total

93.9105.4100.293.7

110.51347157.5

147.7153.5156.2161.1161.5160.3161.91641167.9171.0162.3163.8168.6

Resic

Total1

Bi]

54359.750.446.560.581.093. 1

Seasonall

88. 192.294395.495.794894795.297.698.892.294 1946

Private

iential

Newhousing

units

lions of doll

44950, 140.634447.365.775.5

y adjusted at

72.574.475. 176.677.777. 176.876.878.980.574676.976.4

Commer-cial and

industrial

ars

18. 121.723.820.819.922.529.0

inual rates

25.426.427.330.630.630.931.632.032.833.331.831.835.7

Other

21.524025.926.430.031.335.3

34 134934 635. 135.234635.636.937.538.938.338.038.2

Federal,State,andlocal

30.232.538,340. 938.337.844 8

37.741.545. 145. 248. 448.248. 047.947.947.646.341.843.0

Constructio

Total valueindex

(1972=100)

100.0109. 2103.0101.9121.0153. 6173. 1

Seasonallyadjusted

153169202153173177182193174184181231186187

n contracts3

Commer-cial and

industrialfloor space(millions ofsquare feet)

8541,010

840555592739984

Seasonallyadjustedannual

863921

1,061999898951

1,0371,0151,093

9781,0621,2661,2331,123

1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential and additions and alter-ations, not shown separately.2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 1969 for value index andbeginning 1971 for floor space.

NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparablewith later data.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-HillInformation Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

19711972197319741975 _197619771978

1978: AprMay_JuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec._

1979: JanFeb*Mar *_ „Apr 9

Units

Total

2, 052. 22, 356. 62, 045. 3lf 337. 71, 160. 41, 537. 51, 987. 12, 020. 3

2,1762,0372,0932,1042,0042,0242,0542,1072,0741,6791,3811, 7861,749

$

by

1

1, 151. 01, 309. 21, 132. 0

ssai1, 162. 41, 450. 91, 433. 3

1,4821,4631,4391,4551,4311,4321,4361,5021,5391,139

9531,2661,279

Jew private

type of stri

2-4units

120.3141.3118. 368. 164.085.9

121.7125.0

Seasonally

13892

14313413711213515011912476

116110

housing unr

icture

5 or moreunits

780.9906. 2795.0381.6204.3289. 2414.4462.0

adjusted ar

556482511515436480483455416416352404360

}S

Unitsauthor-

ized

1, 924. 62f 218. 91, 819. 51,074.4

939. 21, 296. 21, 690. 01, 800. 5

inual rates

1,9141,7561,9831,7651,7161,8381, 8351,7891,8271,4421,4251,6211,517

Unitscompleted

1, 706. 12, 003. 92, 100. 51, 728. 51, 317. 21, 377. 21, 657. 11, 867. 5

1,9581, 8691,8761,9281,9481,9001,8831,8851,8881, 8151,8941,954

New priv

Homessold

656718634519549646819816

827843830829778796900803802774697811

ate homes

Homes forsale atend ofperiod *

287409418346313353401413

411414419417418417407412413412410407

Vacancyrate forrental

housingunits

(percent)3

5.45.65.86.26.05.65.25.0

5. 1

5.0

5.0

4.8

* Seasonally adjusted.3 Quarterly data entered in last of quarter-E.—Units authorized revised beginning 1978 to relate to 16,000 permit -

issuing places. Data for 1972-77 are for 14,000 places and 1971, for 13,000 places.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADEBusiness sales rose 4.0 percent in March while inventories rose $4.8 billion. According to the advance survey, retailsales rose 0.5 percent in April following a 1.0 percent increase in March.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

400

350

300

250

200

150 -

100

TOTAL BUSINESS

INVENTORIES ,

19751 1976

>TAL. TOTAL BUSINESS

SALES

1977 1978


100

90

80

5®

RETAIL INVENTORIES

RETAIL SALES

RATIO*

1979

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

1.201975

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

11978 1979


Period

1972 __.1973197419751976 __ _ _ _1978___1978..

1978: MarApr.MayJuneJulyAugSept_OctNovDec_-

1979: Jan__FebMar *____Apr »

Total bi

Qnlnoi 2bales 2

130,049151, 720175, 350179, 982201, 814225, 100254, 727

243, 979251, 323252, 259253, 459252, 755260, 068260, 535266, 946270, 134273, 776

273, 444275, 352286, 385

usiness l

Inven-tories 3

203, 088234, 036285, 415284, 735310, 466337, 832379, 391

349, 201354, 332357, 401360, 355363, 432367, 044369, 526372, 639376, 596379, 391

383, 886387,411392, 231

Who!

O_l_._ nbales *

Milh

29, 58436, 82245, 836,44, 63348, 408,53, 509,62, 842

58, 80361, 64063, 17162, 65663, 42564, 89464, 53167, 33867, 55267, 823

67, 14867, 49570, 737

esale

Inven-tories 3

ons of d<

39, 78646, 25456, 53755, 11361, 30767, 99880, 771

72, 62974, 32774, 77975, 19175, 74476, 33877, 11378, 62579, 52680, 771

81, 54383, 00584, 620

Tfvf ol

">Ilars, sej

37, 42241, 94444, 69248, 73154, 597,60, 33566, 568

64, 07565, 14665, 52265, 96466, 22467, 30368, 08568, 97170, 15870, 918

70, 85571, 12271, 85272, 197

Sales 2

Dur-ablegoodsstores

asonally

12, 36914, 13213, 92115, 10618, 07320, 65323, 160

21, 81322, 61722, 73022, 94723, 04923, 61723, 87224, 42224, 95425, 163

25, 25025, 03525, 35625, 253

Re

Non-durablegoodsstores

adjusted

25, 05427, 81230, 77133, 62636, 52439, 68243, 409

42, 26242, 52942, 79243, 01743, 17543, 68644, 21344, 54945, 20445, 755

45, 60546, 08746, 49646, 994

tail

In

Tntil

55, 07963, 23771, 06771, 74479, 27390, 120100, 818

92, 71294, 29094, 93395, 60796, 52197, 82498, 35099, 279100, 483100, 818

101, 739101, 175102, 218

ventories

Dur-ablegoodsstores

24, 23828, 41832, 86133, 35637, 84143, 41448, 161

44, 62445, 61945, 52545, 50245, 70446, 11646, 44447, 00647, 55548, 161

49, 30249, 36749, 557

§

Non-durablegoodsstores

30, 84134, 81938, 20638, 38841, 43246, 70652, 657

48, 08848, 67149, 40850, 10550, 81751, 70851, 90652, 27352, 92852, 657

52, 43751, 80852, 661

Inventorrati

Totalbusi-ness 1

1.501.441.471.581.481.441.41

1.431.411.421.421.441.411.421.401.391.39

1.401.411.37

y- saleso *

Retail

1.401.411. 491.451. 391.401.44

1.451.451.451.451.461.451.441. 441.431.42

1.441.421.42

1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).2 Monthly average for year and total for month.1 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.- AJW&. vaiuc, ciiu ui pciiuu, ocaDUiisuiy au justed. __4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly Source: Depglies; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to for month. of the Census).sales,

20

NOTE.—Data for 1978 are as revised in March. Data for earlier periods revisedin this issue.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERSManufacturers1 inventories rose in March. In April, according to advance data, durable goodsorders fell.

OF160140

120

100


GOODS

\GOODS

NEW

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO160140

120

100

««&, ^ L »»**BSM**'*-*i1l'*"*""ii^^**s»^ A*** "* \«•««*«»»«"»') \ .

GOODS

1975 1976*SEASONALLY ADJUSTS)

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMM0JCE

1977 1978

240

200

160

120

100

80

60

40

INVENTORIES

RATIO*2.20

DURABLE GOODS

NONDURABLE GOODS

1979

INVENTORYJSHIPMENTS! RATIO

1979

•CONOMiC ADVISERS

Period

1972197319741975___19761977 __1978-

1978: Apr__May__June _July—Aug__Sept___Oct ___Nov_ _Dec___

1979: Jan _Feb___MarApr *>_

Manufac

Total

63, 04372, 95484, 82186, 61698, 809

111,256125, 317

124, 537123, 566124, 839123, 106127, 871127, 919130, 637132, 424135, 035

135, 441136, 735143, 796

so

Durablegoods

34,04339,70444, 25343, 67850, 69758, 26666} 924

66, 49365, 41766, 29365, 22268, 68468, 91670, 29271, 63573, 429

73, 253.

77, 74272, 370

l

Non-durablegoods

28, 99933, 25040, 56842, 93948, 11252, 99058, 394

58,04458, 14958, 54i57, 88459, 18759, 00360, 34560, 78961, 606

62, 18862, 50666, 054

Manufad

Total

Millio108, 223124, 545157, 811157, 878169, 886179, 714197, 802

185, 715187, 689189, 557191, 167192, 882194, 063194, 735196, 587197, 802

200, 604203, 231205, 393

turersj im

Durablegoods

ns of doll70, 24481, 333

101, 790101, 580108, 968115,424129, 141

119, 848121, 471122, 688123, 830125, 206126, 176126, 784128, 357129, 141

131, 542133, 783135, 287

Non-durablegoods

ars, seasoi37, 97943, 21256, 02156, 29860, 91864, 29068, 661

65, 86766, 21866, 86967, 33767, 67667, 88767, 95168, 23068, 661

69, 06269, 44870, 106

Mant

Total

lally adju64, 20176, 22487, 20085, 05899, 134

112,842129, 263

128, 175128, 450127, 580123, 279130, 952131, 840137, 185137, 662140, 356

142, 679144, 894150, 215

ifacturer

Durab

Total

3ted35, 09842, 89446, 78341, 93350, 99759, 79570, 744

70, 03370, 04568, 84065, 18771, 58272, 64576, 98476, 65478, 623

80, 73282, 00784, 34477, 030

s} new ore

le goodsCapitalgoodsindus-tries,non-

defense

8,83211, 11412, 69110, 78112, 50115, 20118, 814

17, 40918, 12418, 15517, 07419, 34420, 14922, 21920, 57520, 790

22, 05823, 27024, 73121, 378

ers 1

Non-durablegoods

29, 10433, 32940, 41743, 12548, 13753, 04758, 519

58, 14258, 40558, 74058, 09259, 37059, 19560, 20161, 00861, 733

61, 94762, 88765, 871

Manu-fac-

turers'unfilledorders 3

121, 709161, 194189, 678170, 686

-474, 553193, 659241, 025

209, 133214, 010216, 754216, 922219, 999223, 921230, 464235, 704241, 025

248, 266256, 424262? 842

Manu-fac-

turers'inven-tory—ship-mentsratio 4

1.671.581.651.831.661.581.51

1.491.521.521.551.511.521.491.48L46

1.481.491.43

i Monthly average for year and for are the same as sales.* Book value, end of period.'End of period.

* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthlyshipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipmentsfor month.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21


PRODUCER PRICES PRICESIn April, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished con-sumer foods fell 0.3 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 1.4 percent. Prices of capital equip-ment increased 1.1 percent.

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)240

220

200

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)240

220

100 100

1979

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL Or ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1 9 7 1 _ _ _ _ _ _1972____1973 ___ _1974. _ _ _ _ _ _1975 _ _ _ _ __19761977---..1978

1978: AprMay _ _June.July. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _AugSept ... __Oct.. _ __NovDec...

1979: JanFeb___ __ __Mar_ _ _Apr

Totalfin-

ishedgoods

113.7117.2127. 9147. 5163. 4170.3180. 6194.6

191. 5192.8194.2195.6196. 1197.7199.2200. 6202.7205. 2207.3209. 3211.2

Con-sumerfoods

115. 3121.7146.4166.9181.0180.2189. 1206.8203.8204.4207. 2207.4206.6209.7213. 1214. 7217.3221.2224.7227.5226. 9

[196?

F

Total

113. 1115.4120. 1139.3156.2165 5176. 2188. 9

185. 8187. 3188.3190.0190. 9192.0192.9194. 2196. 1198. 2199. 9201.6204. 2

r=lOO;Finishec

inishedcons

Com

Total

111.4113.4118. 5138.6153. 1161. 8172. 1183.7

180.8182.2183.0184. 9185.9186. 9187. 6188.7190.9193. 0194. 7196. 8199.5

month]I goods

goods eumer f c

sumer -g

Th-ir

flHlp

110.8113.2115.8126. 3138.2144.4152.2165.9

163. 0165.3165.6168.5169.8171.0169.7169. 9172. 3174. 1175. 4176.4177.9

y data i

xcludinmds

cods

Non-dur-able

111.7113.6120.5146.8163.0173.3185.4195. 4

192. 4193.3194.4195.5196. 3197. 2199. 3201. 1203. 1205. 5207. 4210.2213. 7

seasona

g

Capi-tal

equip-ment l

116. 6119.5123.5141. 0162. 5173.2184.5199.0

195. 7197. 2198.7200. 1201.0202. 1203.4205. 1206.4208.4210. 1211. 3213. 7

ily ad jus

Totalcon-

sumerfin-

ishedgoods

112.9116.6129. 2149. 3163. 61169. 01178. 9192. 6

189. 7190. 8192. 3193.7194. 0195.8197.4198. 6201.0203.7206. 1208.4210. 0

Jted]

Inir

Total

114. 1118.7131.6162.9180. 0189.3201. 7215.5

212. 0213.3214.4215.4216. 8218. 2220. 8222. 6224. 2226. 6229.0231. 3234.7

termed!nateria]

Foodsand

feeds s

111.7118.5168.4200. 2195. 3186, 6191.0201.0

200. 6200. 8201.9201.5198.8203, 4207. 6207. 7212. 2214. 4218. 3218.9220. 8

ates

Other

114.3118.9128. 1159.5178.6189.5202.4216.4

212. 8214. 1215. 5216.2217. 7219. 1221.5223. 5225.0227.5229. 6232. 1235.7

Crad

Total

115. 1127.6174. 0196. 1196.9205. 1214.3240.2

233.8235.9240.9241.5241.5245.7252. 7255. 6257.5263.4272.2275. 0273. 9

e mater

Food-stuffsand

feed-stuffs

114.2127.5180.0189.4191.8190. 1190.9215.4

211. 0212. 9218.0215. 7215.6219. 5227. 6229.6230. 3236.7245.6246.2245. 5

ials

Other

117.0128.0162.5208. 9206.9233.6258.4287.0

276.7279.0283.7289.9290.3295.0299.9304. 9308.6313.6322. 3329.2327.4

1 Formerly called producer finished goods.J Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal

feeds. Data are not seasonally

NOTE.—Data revised for December 1978.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistici.


CONSUMER PRICESIn April, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 1.1 percent (also 1.1 percent seasonally adjusted).Food prices increased 0.8 percent (1.0 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 1.6 percent(1.3 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.8 percent (0.9 percent seasonally adjusted).

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)240

220

200

140

120

100

120

100

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967=100]

Period

19711972197319741975197619771978

1978: Apr____May__ _JuneJulyAug_ _ _Sept.__OctNovDec

1979: JanFeb____MarApr

Allitems

121.3125.3133. 1147. 7161.2170.5181.5195.4

191. 5193. 3195.3196. 7197.8199.3200.9202.0202.9

204. 7207. 1209. 1211.5

Food

118.4123.5141.4161.7175.4180.8192.2211.4

Unac

207.5210. 3213.8215.0215.4215.6216.8217.8219.4

223. 9228. 2230.4232.3

Com-modi-tieslessfood

116.8119. 4123.5136.6149. 1156.6165. 1174.7

[justed

171.3173.0174.4175.4176.3177.8179. 1180.3181.3

181.9183. 7185.9188.9

Serv-ices

128.4133.3139. 1152. 1166.6180.41943210.9

206.5208.0209.9211.7213.4215.6217.6218.6219. 2

221. 1223. 3225. 1227.0

AllAllcom-modi-ties

117.4120.9129. 9145.5158.4165.2174.7187. 1

183.9185. 3186.9187.7188.7190.2191.7193.0194.6

196.7199. 1201.3203.8

All

118.4123.5141.4161. 7175.4180.8192.2211. 4

208. 1210.5213.5213.7214.6216.0217.9219. 2221. 3

224.5228. 1 •230.5232.7

Food

Foodat

home

116.4121.6141.4162.4175.8179.5190.2210.2

207. 1209.9213. 1212.7213.2214. 5216.5217. 8220. 1

223.7227. 7230.0232.4

Foodawayfromhome

126. 1131. 1141.4159.4174.3186. 1200.3218.4

Seasonal

213.8215. 5218.0219.5221. 4223. 1224.7226.0227. 8

230.7233. 6236.2238.2

Come

All

116.8119.4123.5136.6149. 1156.6165. 1174.7

y adjust

171.6172. 6173.7174.7175.7177.2178.5179.8181.3

182.9184. 8186.9189.4

nodities le

Dur-able

116.5118. 9121.9130.6145.5154.3163.2173.9

ed

170. 2171.5173.0174. 2175.3176.8178.3180. 1181.6

183. 3185. 1186.0187.6

ss food

Non-dur-able

117.0119. 8124.8140.9151. 7158.3166.5174.3

172. 1172.9173.6174.5175.4176.5177.4178.3179.4

181.4182.9186.4190.0

Serv-ices

128.4133.3139. 1152. 1166.6180.4194.3210.9

206.9208.7210.5212.2213.8215.7217.6218.7219.5

220.7223. 1225. 1227.2

NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlierdata related to urban wage earners and clerical workers.



CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS

Period

19701971.19721973197419751976 -19771978

1978: Apr__-May .JuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1979: JanFebMarApr

Pereenperioc

Totalfin-

ishedgoods

2.23.23.8

11.818.36.63.36.69.1

1.1.7.7.7.3.8.8.7

1.0

1.21.01.0.9

t change1; season

Consum

Foods

-2.55.98. 0

22.513.05.5

-2.56.6

11.9

1.0.3

1.4. 1

-.41.51.6.8

1.2

1.81.61.2

*>

from pr<ally adp

er goods

Exclud-ing

foods

3.92.02.07.4

20.56.74.96. 18.3

1.3.8.4

1.0.5.5.4.6

1.2

1.1.9

1. 11.4

seedingisted1

Capitalequip-ment

4.92.42.05.3

22.68.26.47.28.0

.7

.8

.8

.7

.4

.5

.6

.8

.6

1.0.8.6

1. 1

Pereenearlie

Totalfin-

ishedgoods

10.29.7

10.38.87.07.47.69.5

10.5

12.614.013.712.2

t change,r; seasoi

annua

Consum

Foods

16.99.5

11.47.34.44.9

11.516.615.3

16. 120.020. 110.7

from 3 ilally adji1 rates

er goods

Exclud-ing

foods

8.610.510.59.48.48.86.06.28.8

12.013.312.914.2

nonthsisted

Capitalequip-ment

7.38.19. 19.37.97.06.88.48.8

10.210. 19.8

10.6

Pereenearlie

Totalfin-

ishedgoods

8.98.89.59.58.38.88.28.38.9

10.111.712. 112.4

t changer; seasor

annua

Consum

Foods

14.211.914.112.06.98. 19.3

10.310.0

13.818.317.713.4

from 6 itally adjirates

er goods

Exclud-ing

foods

7.07.87.99.09.49.67.77.38.8

9.09.7

10.913. 1

nonthsisted

Capitalequip-ment

7.37.88.18.38.08. 18.08.27.9

8.59.39.3

10.4

i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).NOTE.—Based on revised data for December 1978.


CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES

Period

19701971_ __1972197319741975197619771978

1978: Apr. __May_-June.~July.__Aug._-Sept.-Oct___Nov.. _Dec

1979: Jan.. _Feb___MarApr

Percerperio

Allitems

5.53.43.48.8

12.27.04.86.89.0

.8

.8

.9

.6

.6

.9

.8

.6

.6

.91.21.01. 1

it changed; seasoi

Food

2.24.34.7

20.112.26.5.6

8.011.8

1.71.21.4. 1.4.7.9.6

1.0

1.41.61. 11. 0

5 from prelally adju

Com-mod-itieslessfood

4.82.32.55.0

13.26.25.14.97.7

.5

.6

.6

.6

.6

.9

.7

.7

.8

.91.01.11.3

cedingsted1

Serv-ices

8.2413.66.2

11.38.17.37.99.3

.9

.9

.9

.8

.8

.9

.9

.5

.4

.51. 1.9.9

Percent cseasons

Allitems

9.510.310.79.58.58.59.59.48.5

8.811.313.013.9

dange f reilly adju

Food

17.217.518. 311.28.04.88. 18.9

10.2

12.717.317.715.4

>m 3 montsted annu


5.37.07.27.47.48.39.09.79.6

10.211.612. 915.0

hs earlier;al rates

Serv-ices

10.310.611.010. 610. 110. 310.69.57.2

5.88.3

10. 612.3

Percent cseasoni

Allitems

8.38.99.89.59.49.69.59.08.5

9.210.410.711.4

hange f reilly adju

Food

13.814.616.614.212.611.39.68.47.4

10.413.013.914.0

>m 6 montsted annu


5.86. 16.56.47.27.88.28.58.9

9.610.611.212.6

hs earlier ;al rates

Serv-ices

8.69.4

10.010.510.410.610.69.88.7

8.28.98.99.0

i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier

data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers.

24



PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers fell 1 percent in April and prices paid by farmers rose 1 percent in the month ended April15.

"INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

PRICES RECEIVED(ALL FARM PRODUCTS)

PRICES PAID(ALL ITEMS, INTEREST,

TAXES, AND WAGE RATES)

- 70

601971 1979

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1971....1972197319741975197619771978 ....1978: Apr

MayJuneJulyAugSept.—..OctNovDec

1979: JanFebMar ._Apr

Prices

All farmproducts

113125179192185186183210208215218215211216218216222

232241246244

received by

Crops

108114175224201197192203208212216213204204202202205

209216214212

farmers

Livestockand

products

Index, 1

118136183165172177175216209217219217217226232228237

252264274272

Prices

All items,interest,

taxes, andwage rates

967=100

118125144164180191202219216219220220221223224225226

234238243245

paid by far

Familylivingitems

118123133151166176

(3)(3)«(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)

(3)(3)(3)(3)

mers

Produc-tion

items

113121146166182193200216214217218218217220222222225

230235243246

Parity

Actual

7174918676716670717273727071727172

73757473

ratio 1

Adjusted *

7579948776726872737475737273737274

74767674

1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid,interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base.

* The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly tofarmers.

3 Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substitutedin calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977.

Source: Department of Agriculture.

9JR


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCKAll the monetary aggregates increased sharply in April.

ilLLIONS ..jQfJX*LLARS*(RAIlO SCALE)1,000

BILLIONS Of DOOARS*(RATIO SCALE)i;ooo

300 300

200 200

1971

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THf FID1RAI RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1973: Dec..1974: Dec__1975: Dec_.1976: Dec__1977: Dec..1978: Dec_1978: Apr__

May_June-July.Aug.Sept.Oct__Nov_Dec.Jan__Feb.Mar.Apr*.

(

Ml

270.5283.2295.4313.8338,7361.2347.9350.7352.5354.4356.7360. 7361.2360.6361. 2359. 7358.6359.0364. 3

Dverall

M1 +

397. 9419.5456. 8517.2560. 6587. 1572. 1576. 1578. 6580. 1583. 6589.5589.9587.7587. 1583.2580. 0579.4584.8

measur

M2

571.3612.2664.8740. 6809.4875.8830.3836.7842.6848.6856.5865.6870.2873. 7875.8875.0876.7879. 5889.8

es *

M3

919.0981.0

1, 092. 41, 235. 61, 374. 31, 500. 11, 411. 91, 422. 01, 433. 11, 444. 51, 458. 01, 474. 11, 484. 81. 493. 11, 500. 11, 503. 71, 509. 71, 517. 51, 531. 4

Cur-rency

61.667.873.880.888.697.591.392.092. 593.293.995.295.896. 697.598.298.999.4

100.2

(

Deposii

De-mand

209. 0215. 3221.7233.0250. 1263.7256.6258. 8260. 0261.2262. 8265. 5265.3264.0263.7261. 5259.7259.5264. 1

Dompone

;s at corr

Time

Tnfnl 2JL U Lctl

363.7418. 1450. 3489. 2544.4611.2565.9572.2576. 8582. 1587.4593.5597.7608.5611. 2615.8620. 2619.5620.6

nts ane

tmercia

and sa

LargeCDs

63.089. 081.062.473.796.683.486.286. 788.087.688. 588.695.496.6

100.5102. 199.095. 0

related

banks

vings

Sav-ings

127. 1135.9160.7202. 1219.7223. 0221. 7222. 8223. 5222. 9224. 1226.0225.9224. 3223.0220. 8218.6217. 7217.7

items

De-posits

atnon-bankthrift

institu-tions

347. 7368. 7427.7495.0564.9624.4581. 5585. 3590. 5595.9601.5608. 5614.6619.5624. 4628.7633.0638. 0641. 6

U.S.Govern-

mentdemanddeposits(unad-justed)

6.34.94. 14.45. 1

10.25.04. 06. 24.43.56.24. 28.0

10. 211. 98.36.55.3

Perce

Ml

6.04.74.36.27.96.67. 68.68. 37.48.5

10. 57.85.75. 03.01. 1

-.91. 7

nt ehai

M1 +

5.05.48.9

13.28.44.75.66.66.55.66.68.36.34. 13.01. 1

— 1. 2-3. 4-1.7

ige3

M2

8.87.28. 6

11.49.38.27.48.08.48. 19.3

10.719.89.08.06.34.83.24. §

1 Ml is currency plus demand deposits; M1+ is Ml plus savings deposits atcommercial banks and checkable deposits at nonbank thrift institutions; M2 isMl plus time and savings deposits at commercial banks other than large certifi-cates of deposit (CDs); and M3 is M2 plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions.

9ft

2 Includes time deposits other than large CDs, not shown separately.s Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are

from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.NOTE.—Series revised beginning July 1978.Souret: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserva System.


PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1971: Dec1972: Dec1973: Dec1974: Dec1975: Dec1976: Dec_.1977: Dec1978: Dec

1978: AprMayJuneJulyAug ^_ __SeptOctNov__Dec

1979: Jan___ _ _Feb....Mar__Apr »_ _ _ _

Totalliquidassets

854 2967. 1

1, 084 81, 169. 81, 289. 21, 421. 81, 588. 61, 770. 8

1, 648. 41, 664 51,677.81, 690. 61, 703. 21, 722. 61, 735. 31, 753. 61, 770. 8

1, 787. 11, 800. 61, 807. 71, 821. 7

Total

721.1816.6887. 39448

1, 054 51, 193. 01, 326. 51, 452. 0

1, 363. 51, 373. 41, 384 21, 396. 51, 409. 81, 425. 51, 437. 01, 445. 71, 452. 0

1, 456. 51, 463. 31, 471. 11, 486. 0

Curre

Cur-rency

52.556.961.667.873.880.888.697.5

91.392.092.593.293.995.295.896. 697.5

98.298.999.4

100. 2

ncy and c

Demanddeposits

161.8176. 1183.7187.3192.6200.2214 1225.9

220. 6222. 2222.6224.2225.6227. 6227. 1225. 6225.9

224 4222.8222.5227. 4

eposits

Time d

Com-mercialbanks

233.52644294 3321.0360.4417. 1459.0504 3

470. 1473.9478.6483.2488.84942499. 550405043

505. 2508.6511.3516.7

eposits

Nonbankthrift

institu-firtTl<S

273.3319. 1347.7368. 7427.7495.05649624 3

581.5585.3590. 5595.9601.5608.56146619.56243

628.7633.0638.0641.8

U.S. Tiseeur

Savingsbonds

54357.660.463. 367. 371.976.680.6

78.278. 578.979.379.579.880. 180.480.6

80.780.680.680.6

•easuryities

Short-term

market-able se-curities

31.3.34343.347.066. 166.277.288.6

81.582.883.281.782.084983.982.788.6

93.895.696.697.0

Nego-tiablecertifi-

cates ofdeposit

27. 636.253. 870.458. 143.052.0645

58.060.660.661.460. 160.259.0645645

66.867. 661.856. 2

Otherprivatemoneymarketinstru-ments

19.822.540.044.443.247.756.385.0

67. 269.370.971.771.772.275.380.385.0

89.393.497.6

101. 8

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

•D « _ jJrenod

19711972_ _ _ _19731974197519761977_1978

1978: Mar_ ___Apr _MayJuneJulyAug.Sept—_Oet____NovDec

1979: Jan.FebMar __ _

Instalm

Total i

138, 046151, 749173, 035172, 765180, 441211, 028254, 071298, 574

23, 92524, 68225, 10425, 56525, 02225, 66925, 53725, 75826, 21426, 500

25, 54426, 20226, 698

ent credit e

Auto-mobile

36, 70643, 70249, 60646, 51452, 42063, 74375, 64188, 986

7,0437,4347,5927,5957,6527,7447,5427,5017,7877,833

7,5457,7567,797

stended

Revolving

21, 86224, 65928, 70233, 21336, 95643, 93486, 756

104, 587

8,3988,5238,5639,0628,7009,0289,0068,8469, 1769,424

9,4179,3579,714

Instalmc

Total i

127, 789136, 787152, 817163, 276172, 676189, 381218, 793253, 508

19, 84920,57620, 82421, 35821, 55622, 03721, 85722, 38422, 11522, 100

22, 48322, 89422, 967

3nt credit lie

Auto-mobile

32, 51238, 08143, 69646, 01949, 44453, 27860, 43769, 429

5,4095,6225,7155,9535,9416, 1406,0106, 1266,0326,053

5,8656, 1916,311

juidated

Revolving

20, 81823, 48526, 69931, 24335, 61641, 76480, 50896, 811

7,5667,8407,9198, 1078, 1008,2918,3848,5008,5118,555

8,9849,0408,972

Net change

Total i

10, 25714, 96220, 218

9, 4897,765

21, 64735, 27845, 066

4, 0764, 1064,2804,2073,4663, 6323,6803,3744,0994,400

3,0613,3083,731

5 in amount

Auto-mobile

4, 1945,6215,910

4952,976

10, 46515, 20419, 557

1,6341,8121,8771,6421,7111,6041,5321,3751,7551,780

1,6801,5651,486

outstanding

Revolving

1,0441, 1742,0031,9701,3402, 1706,2487,776

832683644955600737622346665869

433317742

»Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.


Bank loan growth accelerated markedly in April.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

1,000

800

600

400

__ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

TOTAL= LOANS AND INVESTMENTS

\

200

100

80

60

401971

i i i i I i

1972

INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES

INVESTMENT IN

U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

i i i I i i1973 1974 1975

i i i i i I i I i i i

1976 1977

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

1,000

800

600

400

„„«.,..«»»**",i»«««o""

1978 1979

200

100

80

60

40

^SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTHSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

T>,_ " ._ JFeriod

19711972197319741975197619771978 *_.

1978: AprMay .__June _July »Aug* _Sept"Oct »Nov *Dec » _ _

1979: Jan *__— _Feb *>Mar *>__Apr »

Totalloansand

invest-ments

485.7558.0633.4691. 1721.8785. 1870.6977.7

909. 0921.7932.2940. 0945.9958. 1967.3977.6977.7

998.61, 007. 71, 012. 61, 024. 0

Alle

L<

Total ex-cludinginter-bank

320.9378.9449.0500. 2496. 9538.9617.0715.4

647.6659.7667.8674.0680. 6691. 6700. 9715. 1715.4

732.4738.3743.4752.9

Commercial 1

^ans

Commer-cial and

industrial

\116.2130.4156.6183.5176.2179. 7201.4230. 9

212.4217.9219.0220.8223. 1225.2227.6230.7230.9

237.8240.6243. 5247.6

>anks l

Investn

U.S. Gov-ernmentsecurities

60. 662.654.551. 180. 198.095.688.8

98.397.9

100.2100.898.397.896.091.488.8

89.492. 190.591. 8

lents

Othersecu-rities

104. 2116.5129.9139.8144. 8148.2158.0173.5

163. 1164. 1164.2165.2167.0168.7170.4171. 1173.5

176.8177.3178. 7179. 3

I

Total

31. 1631. 3434.9036.5534.6734 8936. 1041.2736.9337.2737.6338. 1137.9338.2138.3839.7541.27

41.4840. 7540.8140. 65

All me

teserves 2 s

Non-borrowed

31.0330.2933.6035.8334. 5434.8335.5340.40

36.3836.0636.5336.8036.7937. 1537. 1039.0540. 40

40.4839. 7839.8239,73

mber ban

Re-quired

30.9831.0534.6036.3034.4034.6135.9141.04

36.7937.0537.4537.9237.7738.0238.2239.5341. 04

41.2640. 5440.6640. 47

ksBorrowiilions of

unadji

Total

1071,0491,298

70312762

558874

5391,2271, 1111,2861, 1471,0681,261

722874

994973999897

igs (mil-dollarSjisted) 2

Sea-sonal

4132131254

134

4393

120143188191221185134

112114121133

1 Data are for end of period.2 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December.3 Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages

with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M.

28

NOTE.—Commercial bank data revised beginning July 1978.

Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATEBUSINESS


Period

197019711972 __ _ _197319741975197619771978 9

1977: IIIIIIIV_ .

1978:1IIIIIIV 9

Total

104 3127. 1161. 7199. 8190.8143. 8205.0239. 0283. 4

244. 3198. 6266.0247. 1

277.0276. 8292. 5286. 8

Inter-nal1

58.968.680. 883.875.7

106.8124. 7135. 3141. 9

123. 8134.9145. 5137.3

127. 2144. 1146. 1150. 2

Total

45.558. 580. 9

115.9115. 137.080.3

103. 6141.5

120. 563.7

120. 6109. 9

149. 8132.7146. 4136. 6

Sources

Credii

Tntil

40.744. 558.372.781.837.058.278.789.5

75.963. 780. 195.2

94. 586.888. 188.2

External

t market \

Long-term 2

32. 140. 640.637. 039. 149.348. 846. 249. 1

34. 435. 353.561.5

35. 154.560. 845.9

"unds

Short-term 3

8.63. 9

17.635. 742.6

-12. 39.5

32.640.4

41. 628. 526.633.7

59.432.427.342. 3

Other

4.814. 122.743.333. 4

.022.024.952.0

44.6-.040.514. 7

55. 445.958. 248.4

Total

95.9119. 6145. 8185. 6179.0131.9184.9212. 3268.9

214.6177. 3234.6222. 7

260. 1264. 3277.6272. 9

Uses

Pur-chase

ofphysi-

calassets 4

80.386.0

100. 3123.3134. 799.9

141. 2164. 6194. 9

152.5162. 4175.2168.0

179.8199.8198. 8201.3

In-crease

infinan-

cialassets

15.633. 645.662. 344.432. 043.747.874. 0

62. 114. 959. 454.7

80. 364. 578.871. 6

Dis-crep-ancy

(sourcesless

uses)

8.47.5

15. 914.211.811.920. 126.714.5

29.621. 331.424. 4

16. 912.414.813.9

i Undistributed profits (after inventory \mluation and capital consumptionadjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits.

* Stocks, bonds, and mortgages.s Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances,

and Government loans.

4 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and min-eral rights from U.S. Government.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS[Billions of dollars, except as noted]

End of period

SEC series:2

19701971197219731974

FTC-FRB series:3

1974197519761977

1977: IIIIIIIV

1978: I _IIIII

Total

492.3529.6599. 3697.8790. 7

734. 6756.3823. 1900. 1

842. 0856.4880.3900. 1

924.2953.5992.4

Cash

50.253. 359.066.371. 1

73. 080.086.894.2

80.883. 183. 494.2

88.590.991.4

Currei

U.S.govern-ment

securi-ties

7.711. 010.612.812. 3

11.319.626. 020. 9

26. 822. 121.520.9

20.919.718.6

at assets

Notesandac-

countsreceivable

206. 1221. 1248.2288. 5322. 1

265. 5272. 1292. 4325.7

304. 1312. 8326.9325.7

338.3356.8377. 8

Inven-tories

193.3200. 4225.7263. 9313.6

318. 9314.7341.4375.0

352. 1358. 8367.5375.0

389.7399. 1415.5

Othercurrentassets

35.043. 855. 866. 471.7

65. 969.976. 484.3

78.379.681.084. 3

86.887.089. 0

Cur

Total

304. 9326.0375.6450. 9530.4

451.8446. 9487. 5543.2

502.6509.5528. 9543.2

570.4590. 8624. 5

rent liabil

Notesandac-

countspayable

211. 3220. 5282. 9340. 3402. 3

272.3261. 2273. 2306. 8

280. 2286. 8297. 8306.8

317. 2331. 3349.9

ities

Othercurrentliabili-

ties

93. 6105. 592. 7

110.7128. 1

179. 5185. 7214. 2236. 3

222.4222. 7231. 1236.3

253. 2259.4274.6

Network-

ingcapital

187.4203. 6223. 7246.9260. 3

282. 8309. 5335.6357. 0

339.5346. 9351.4357.0

353. 8362.7367.9

Currentratio 1

1. 6151.6251. 5951.5481. 491

1.6261. 6931.6881.657

1. 6751. 6811.6641.657

1.6201.6141.589

1 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.2 Eased on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.3 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, andTrade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission.

NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974.See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System, Federal Trade

Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.


INTEREST RATES AND BOND YEILDSInterest rates rose durlnq May after their mid-Apr!I decline.

PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM

SOURCE: SEE TAME BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

IPercent per annum j

Period

1973_ _ _ _ _ _1974 _1975 _1976 __19771978 _1978: Apr. _

May__JuneJulyAug. _ _SeptGetNovDec. __

1979: JanFeb___Mar_Apr__

Week ended:1979: Apr 28_

May 5121926 I

U.S. Trc

3-monthbills1

7.0417.8865.8384.9895. 2657.2216.3066.4306.7077.0747.0367.8368.1328.7879. 1229.3519.2659.4579.493

9.1159.4989.6219.5069.744

jasury seeun

Constant i

3-year

6.957.827.496.776.698.297.858.078.308.548.338.418.629.049.339.509.299.389.43

9.479.549.549.459.27

ity yields

uaturities 2

10-year

6.847.567.997.617.428.418. 158.358.468. 648.418.428.648.819.019. 109.109. 129. 18

9.259. 369.379.289. 11

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard& Poor's)3

5. 186. 096.896.495. 565.905.715.976. 136. 185.985.935.956.036. 336.256. 196. 166. 14

6. 106.116. 146. 156.05

CorporateAaa

bonds(Moody's)

7.448.578. 838.438. 028.738.568.698.768.888.698. 698.899.039. 169. 259.269.379.38

9.449. 519.529.519.49

Prime com-mercialpaper,4-6

months

8. 159. 876. 335.355. 607.996.867. 117.637.917.908.449.03

10.2310.4310.3210.019.969.87

9.689.91

10.0010.039,98

Discountrate

(N.Y.F.R.

Bank)4

6.457. 836.255. 505.467.46

6}r-6H6K-7

7-77-7J4

7%-88-8H

Ql / Ql/

9^-93^Q1Z__Q1/

9^_9^9H-9H

9}$-9Hgi^_9^9^__gi^9H-9H

Primerate

chargedby

banks 4

8. 0310. 817. 866.846. 839.068-88-8X2

81/2-99-99-9^

9^-9%

10̂ -1 1H11X2-11%1 1%-11%1134— 11%11%— 11%1 l%-ll%

\\%-\\%i iji-njiiiji-njin%-n%

New-home

mortgageyields

(FHLBB)*

7. 958. 929. 018. 999. 019.549. 309.379.469.579.709.739.839.87

10.0210. 1810.2010.3010.34

» Rate on new within period.3 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities

by the Treasury Department.» Weekly are Wednesday figures.* Average effecti¥e rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.

30

5 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflectingfees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repaymentat end of 10 years. Bates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable withprior rates.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the FederalReserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Serviceand Standard & Poor's Corporation.


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices In May continued to decline from mid-April peaks.

INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=5080

INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50

80

50

40

30 -

- 50

40

~ 30

1971 1979

PERCENT

20

15

10

PERCENT,

20

15

10

EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS

(S&P)

1971 1979

SOURCES; NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1973 _ „_ _ _ „1974 „1975_m1976 _19771978____1978: Apr „ . „ „ _ _ „

MayJuneJulyAug..SeptOct _ „ _ _Nov.-.—DecJan.......Feb.- . _Mar__ .Apr

Week ended:1979: Apr 28

May 512__1926

New York

Composite

57.4243.8445.7354.4653. 6953.7051.7554.49548354. 6158,5358.5856.4052.7453.6955.7755.0856. 1957.50

57.5257. 2455.6955.6756.50

Stock Exct

Industrial

63.0848.0850.5260. 4457.8658.2355.4859. 1459.6359.35640764 2361.6057.5058.7261.3160.3761.8963. 63

63.8463. 6161.6561.5562.48

Comi

sange indexe

Transpor-tation

37.7431.8931. 1039.5741. 0943.5041. 1944.2144 1944.7449.4550. 1946.7041.8042.4943.6942.2743.2245.92

46. 0545.6644.3645. 1546.64

tnon stock p

s(Dec. 31,

Utility

37.6929. 7931.5036.9740. 9239.2239.6939.4739.4139, 2840.2039. 8239.4437.8838.0938.8339. 2138. 9438.63

38. 0937.7337.2337. 3337. 58

rices l

1965=50) *

Finance

70. 1249.6747. 1452. 9455.2556.6555.0457.9658. 3157.9763.2863.2260.42549555. 6857.5956.0957.6559. 50

59.6559. 1758. 1058. 1859. 50

Dow-Jones

Industrialaverage 3

923. 88759. 37802. 49974 92894 63820. 23794 66838. 56840. 26831. 72887. 93878. 64857. 69804 29807. 94837. 39825. 18847, 84864 95

862. 39854 21833. 28832. 85839. 85

Standard& Poor'scomposite

index(1941-43=

10) 4

107. 4382.8586. 16

102. 0198.2096.0292.7197.4197.6697. 19

103. 92103. 86100. 58947196. 1199.7198.23

100. 11102. 07

102. 02101. 5398.9498.90

100. 14

Common s(perc

Dividend-

ratio

3.064474313.774.625.285.425.205. 195.254934975. 115.455.395.285.435.365. 35

5.365.425.605.665.59

took yieldsent)s

Earnings-

ratio

7. 1211.599.158.90

10.7912.05

11.76

11.30

12.85

1 Average of dally closing prices.a Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) on the NYSE.* Includes 30 stocks. «Includes 500 stocks.1 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing

pnces. Earnings-price ratios on prices at end of quarter.

NOTE.—All data relate to on the New York Stock Exchange(NYSE).

Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc.,ard & Poor's Corporation.


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBTIn the first 7 months of fiscal 1979, the budget deficit was $32.7 billion. A year earlier the deficit was $48.0 billion.

IIUJONS OF DOLLARS B1LUONS OF DOLLARS

500

400

300

200

50

0

-50

-100

RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS

500

400

300

200

50

0

-50

-100

OUTLAYS

RECEIPTS

J f

SURPLUS W OR DEFICIT (-)

_L _L1971 1972 1973 1974

SOURCES, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

1975 1976

FISCAL YEARS

1977 1978 1979 19SQ

COUNCIL OP ECONOMY AOV5SS8S

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:1969 „197019711972. _1973 „1974__._19751976 . _.Transition quarter1977 . .19781979 (estimates)2

1980 (estimates):Current Budget Estimates, March 1979 2

First Concurrent Resolution, May 1979 3 _.__

Cumulative total first 7 months."Fiscal year 1978 _ „ _ _. _ _ _Fiscal year 1979 „

Receipts

187.8193.7188.4208. 6232. 2264.9281.0300.081. 8

357.8402.0461.8

503.9509.0

212.4253. 8

Outlays

1845196.6211.4232.0247. 1269, 6326.2366.494. 7

402.7450.8495.0

532.3532.0

260.4286.5

Surplus ordeficit ( — )

3.2-2.8

-23.0-23.4-148-4.7

-45.2-66.4-13.0-45. 0-48.8-33.2

-28.4-23.0

-48.0-32.7

Federal debt (

Total l

367. 1382.6409. 5437.3468.4486.2544. 1631.9646.4709. 1780.4

746.4804.0

end of period)

Held bythe public

279.528493043323.8343.0346. 1396.9480.3498.3551.8610.9

591.0631.9

* Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF.2 Estimates from Current Budget Estimates, March 1979, Office of Management

and Budget.

3 First Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1980, May 24, 1979.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget,except as noted.


FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 7 months of fiscal 1979, budget receipts were $41.4 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were$26.1 billion higher.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

100

RECEIPTS

CORPORATION INCOME TAXES

200

100

400

300

200

100

OUTLAYS

-

-

- ^-1 'v 1971

NOND^̂

NATIONAL DfftNSE ^

1 I I 1 I ! I I K

1972 1973 1974 1975 197<S 1977 1978 1979 1980 ^RSCALYEARS

400

300

200

100

SOURCES, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMJC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period :1969. _ _ __197019711972. _1973. _1974 _1975 _ „ _1976Transition quarter. _197719781979 (estimates)1 _ _ _1980 (estimates)1

Cumulative total first 7months:

Fiscal year 1978Fiscal year 1979

Total

187.8193.7188. 4208.6232. 2264. 9281.0300.081.8

357.8402.0461.8503.9

212.4253. 8

Rece

Indi-vidualincometaxes

87.290.486.294.7

103.2119. 0122.4131. 638.8

157. 6181.0208. 8228.6

96.0120. 1

ipts

Corpo-rationincometaxes

36.732.826. 832.236.238. 640.641.48.5

54. 960.070.471.1

31.535.6

Other

63.970.575.481.792. 8

107.4118.0127.034. 5

145.2161. 1182. 6204.2

85.098. 2

Total

184.5196.6211.4232.0247. 1269.6326.2366.494 7

402.7450.8495.0532.3

260.4286. 5

Nationa

Total

79.478.675.876.674.577.885.689.422. 397.5

105.2115.0126.0

59.965.6

(

. defense

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

77.977. 174.575. 173.277.684. 987.921. 995. 6

103.0112.4122.9

58.765. 2

)utlays

Interna-tionalaffairs

4.64.34. 14.74. 15.76.95.62.24.85. 97.58.2

3.22.9

Healthand

incomesecurity

49.056. 170. 181.491.8

106.5136. 3160. 941.5

176.7189.9208.6232.7

109.9119.7

In-terest

15.818.319.620.622.828.030.934.57.2

38.044.052.556.9

24.329. 0

Other

35.739.341.848.853.951. 666.576. 121.585.7

105.9111.4108.5

63.369.3

1 Estimates from Current Budget Estimates, March 1979, Office of Managementand Budget.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the first quarter of 1979, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $6.8 billion (annual rate) andexpenditures rose $4.6 billion, yielding a deficit of $18.4 billion, $2.4 billion lower than the fourth quarter deficit.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS550

500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

i i I i I i i i i i I I IN 150

50

-50 -

-100

SURPLUS

DEFICIT '

1971

..-„

1972 1973

•" ̂ ^ 1

1974

I

GALE

i1

MD

I975AR Y

1

EARJ

I11

1976

i"ii1977

I

1978

-

1979

50

- -50

-100



Period

Fiscal year:1975197619771978"

Calendaryear:

1975197619771978 __

1977: III. _IV.._

1978: 1IL___III—IV.—

1979: I » _ _

Total

283.5313.9365.3413.8

286.2331.4374.5431.4

374.3385.5

396. 2424.7441.7463. 1

469.9

Federal (

Persona]tax andnontaxreceipts

127. 1136.9165.9186.3

125.4146.8169.4193.2

167.6174.8

176.8186.7199.7209.7

208.3

Glovernm

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accruals

42.151.958.867.2

42.854.861.371.6

62.062.9

59.672.673.680.6

75.3

ent receip

Indirectbusinesstax andnontaxaccruals

22.224.224.527.2

23.923.425.027.9

25.425.6

26.527.928.228.8

29.3

ts

Contri-butions

forsocial in-surance

92.1100.9116.1133. 1

94.2106.4118.7138.7

119.3122.2

133.3137.6140. 1144.0

157. 1

Total

328.7371.5412.0450.6

356.8385.2422. 6461.4

430.7444. 1

448.8448.3464.5483.8

488.4

F<

Pur-chases

of goodsand

services

118.0126.2140.7151. 1

123.1129.9145.1153.8

146.8152.2

151.5147.2154. 0162.5

164.5

sderal G<

Trans-fer pay-ments

134.3156.5169.6181.8

149. 1161.6172.7185.4

175.7178.3

180. 2180.7188.8191.9

196.5

Dvernmei

Grants-in-aid

to Stateandlocal

govern-ments

48.457.566.274.6

54.661.167.476.9

70.971. 1

73.975.977.580.3

77.0

at expen

Netinterest

paid

21.925.228.433.7

23.226.829. 135.5

28.930.7

33.234.636.338. 1

41.5

iitures

Subsidiesless

currentsurplus ofGovern-ment en-terprises

5.76.27.09.4

6.85.88.39.7

8.411.8

10.010.08.0

11.0

8.7

Less:Wage

accrualslessdis-

burse-ments

f 4]o.0.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.2

.0

-.2

Surplusor

deficit(-),

nationalincome

andproductaccounts

-45.3-57.6-46.7-36.8

-70.6-53.8-48. 1-29.9

-56.4-58.6

-52.6-23.6-22.8-20.8

-18.4Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Depart-

ment of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.

34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES[1967=100]

Period

1972........1973... -

life19771978

1978: June...July—Aug....Sept.—Oct.— .Nov-..-Dec

1979: Jan*-__Feb »—Mar »Apr *

In

UnitedStates

119. 7129. 8129. 3117.8129.8137.1145.2

144.9146. 1147. 1147. 8148.7149. 6150.9150.9151. 0152.0150.5

dustria

Can-ada

130.7143. 0147.5139.6146.7152. 6160.8

159.7160.4159.4165. 1164. 5165.5167.6168.4169.5170.0

I produ

Ja-pan

167.2190. 5183. 1163. 9182. 0189. 5201.3

200.5199.7201. 8203.4203.1205. 4208.4208.9210.7212. 6

Dtion (se

France

135145148139149152156

154{l55

157156159160161159161

asonally

Ger-many

138. 7147.7145. 1137. 1149. 1152.7155.8

15515715615915915915915915?159

adjuste

Italy

122.7134.6140.6127.6143.5145. 1147.5

146.0145.0144.2146.8154. 1154.7152,4152.2159.8155.5

d)

UnitedKing-dom

113.2123.0120.0114.3117.5122.8126.5

128.0128.7129.4127.6124.9126.4128. 7119.7130.6132. 1

UnitedStates1

125. 3133. 1147.7161.2170.5181.5195.4

195. 3196.7197.8199.3200.9202.0202.9204.7207. 1209. 1211.5

Con

Can-ada

121.2130.3144.5160. 1172. 1185.9202.5

202.4205.4205.5205.2207.3209.0209. 6211.2213. 2215.7217.2

]

Japan

132.3147.91840205.8224 9243.0252.3

252. 1253.1253.3256.4256.8254 1253.7253.9253.1255.1

mees (ui

France

131. 1140.7160.0178.9196. 1214.5233.7

232.8235.7237. 1238.6240.8242. 1243.2245. 5 •247. 1249.4

Ger-many

119.0127.2136. 1144. 2150.7156.6160.7

161. 5161. 5161.0160.6160. 6161. 1161.8163.5164 5165. 5166. 4

i)

Italy

121. 01340159. 7186.8218. 1255.2286,2

285. 1286.8288.3292.9295.5298.6300. 1305,8310.4314. 1319. 2

UnitedKing-dom

137.7150.21743216.5

. 252. 4292.4316.6316.8318.2320.3321.6323. 1325.3328.0332.9

-338. 3344 1

i Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureauof International Economic Policy and Office of InternationalKeseareh, in International Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

Monthlyaverage :

19731974 . _

197419751976 _19771978 -1978: Mar...

AprMay.-.June—.July...Aug___Sept___OctNovDec...

1979: Jan____FebMar

Totaldomes-tic andforeign

ex-ports

5,9028, 159

8,1598,9669,596

10, 09611, 96511, 14711, 63011, 78612, 26811, 66212, 29413, 27412, 90113, 45113, 28313, 13213, 50714, 452

Mercl

Total 2

F.

5,8118, 04,5

8,0458,8429,4569,912

11, 75610, 90311,42011, 54112, 05311,49712, 10113, 06612, 67013, 21213, 05412, 92313, 28314, 165

landise e

Domesti

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

a.s. valu

1,0781,269

1,2691,3991,4361,3301,7191,6431,6411,8641,9641, 7991,9601,8771,7861,6341,6921,4371,5571, 765

xports l

c exports

Crudemate-rialsandfuels

e s

8951,317

1,3171S2661,3411,5481,7461,5311,6771,7541,9051,6201,7181,9011,9342, 0402,0472,1432,0092,313

i

Manu-fac-

turedgoods

3,7285,294

5,2945,9136,4376,6797,8747,3397,5947,6147,7917,7288, 0948, 5868,6268,9138,9078,7599,0789,403

Total 2

5,7908,416

8,3548,048

10, 08412, 30714, 33614, 00414, 49214, 00913, 97014, 54514, 13314, 82014, 85214, 82515, 03216, 23114, 80615, 273

Merc

Ge

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

Custoir

770892

F.a.s.892

• 827991

1,1861,3121,4081,3741,3261, 2401,3131, 1231,2351, 3581,3691,4521,4861,2611,437

landise i

neral im

Crudemate-rialsandfuels

is value

1,1202,653

value s

2,6722, 7183,4574,4634, 3294,2554,3124, 1094,2374,1764,5194,5134,3554,4434,5785,1454,4384,890

mports

ports 8

Manu-fac-turedgoods

3,7504,684

4,6024, 257.5,3986,3798, 3637,9728,4718,2578, 1588,7298, 1678,7678,7558,6918,6179,2918,8248, 596

Total(c.i.f.

value) 4

6,1319,000

9,0008,654

10, 82513, 13015, 26114, 89315, 43414, 91314, 86915, 49515, 07415, 82115, 76417, 77016, 00617, 28215, 72016, 228

Mer

Ex-ports(f.a.s.)

lessim-

ports(cus-tomsvalue)

112-257

257853

—581—2, 297-2, 476

ehandisebalance

Ex-ports(f.a.s.)

lessim-

ports(f.a.s.)

-195

—195918

—488—2,211-2, 371-2, 858-2, 861-2,223-1,702-2, 883-1,839- 1, 546-1,951-1,374-1,749-3,099-1,300

-821

Exports(f.a.s.)less

imports(c.i.f.)

-229-841

—841312

—1, 229—3, 034-3,297-3,747-3,804-3, 127-2, 601-3, 834-2, 780-2, 547-2, 863-2, 319-2, 724-4, 150-2, 213-1,776

Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equip-ment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for allPeriods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978.

» Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.! JW ?rrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.

TT ^JA(cost' insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in theUnited States. Data for 1973 are estimates.

5 F.a.s. alongside at U.S. port of exportation for exportsat port of for

NOTE.—Data not comparable with earlier data.

Source: Department of Bureau of the Census.


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn fhe first quarter, the merchandise trade deficit fell slightly, to $6.2 billion from $6.4 billion in the fourth quarter.



1971


[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1972197319741975197619771978-____

1977: III. _IV. __

1978: !_._!!.__IIL_IV ._

1979: !*__

M

Ex-ports

49, 38171,41098, 306

107, 088114, 694120, 576141, 844

30, 57829, 637

30, 78735, 25636, 48639, 315

41, 161

erchandise

Im-ports

-55,797-70,499

-103,649-98,041

-124,047-151,706- 175, 988

-37,942-39,009

-42,707-43, 125-44,478-45,678

-473 385

1 2

Netbal-ance

-6,416911

-5,3439,047

-9,353-31, 130-34, 144

-7,364-9,372

-11,920-7,869-7,992-6,363

-6,224

Inv(

Re-ceipts

14, 69421, 69727, 54125, 35929, 24432, 10041, 514

8, 2207,997

9,39210, 01310, 33211, 787

?stment ir

Pay-ments

-6,544-9,655

-12,084- 12, 564-13,311-14,593-21,599

-3,610-4, 185

-4,515-5,432-5,444-6,207

icome3

Net

8,15012, 04215, 45712, 79515, 93317, 50719, 915

4,6103,812

4,8774,5814,8785,580

Netmili-tary

trans-actions

-3,621-2,287-2,080

-876312

1,334531

4675

210444

12-136

Net-traveland

trans-porta-

tionreceipts

-3,028-3, 086-3, 105-2, 522-2, 245-3, 044-3, 135

-677-701

-834-637-930-734

Otherserv-ices,net8

2,7893,1853,9754,6174,7144,7495,949

1,2601, 183

1,3661,4721,5961,515

Bal-anceon

goodsand

serv-ices *

-2, 12510, 7668,905

23, 0609,361

-10,585- 10, 885

- 1, 705-5,072

-6,302-2,009-2,436

-138

Remit-tances,pen-sions,and.

otheruni-

la teraitrans-fers1

-3,854-3,881-7, 186-4, 615-5,022-4, 708-5,076

- 1, 277- 1, 064

- 1, 282-1,317- 1, 275- 1, 204

Bal-anceon

cur-rentac-

count

-5,9796,8851,719

18, 4454,339

-15,292- 15, 961

-2,982-6,136

-7,584-3,326-3,711- 1, 342

1 Excludes military grants.a Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.8 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct

investments in the United States are excluded from investment income andincluded in other services, net.


36


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the fourth quarter of 1978, both capital outflows and capital inflows accelerated sharply. The increased outflow wasprimarily concentrated in private accumulation of foreign assets. The increased inflow reflected the acceleration offoreign official accumulation of U.S. assets, which rose from $4.9 billion in the third quarter to $19.0 billion in thefourth quarter.


BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

CHANGE INFOREIGN ASSETSIN THE U.S., NETA \

CHANGE INU.S. ASSETS

ABROAD, NET

-301970 ' 1971

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1977 1 1978


[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1972 :.19731974_19751976_ _19771978

1977: III_._IV....

1978: IIII I I _ _ _IV...

1979: I*

U[iner€

Total

-14, 461-22,823-34,712- 39, 444-50, 608- 34, 650-58,748

-6,615- 14, 700

-15,067-6, 167

-10, 216-27, 298

S. assetsase/capit£

U.S.officialreserveassets * 2

32209

- 1, 434-607

-2,530-231

872

151

246329115182

-3, 589

abroad,il outflow

OtherU.S.

Govern-mentassets

-1,568-2,644

3663,470

-4,213-3,679-4, 657

- 1, 098-838

-896-1, 176-1,498-1,086

net(-)]

U.S.privateassets 2

- 12, 925-20,388-33,643-35,368-43,865-30,740-54,963

-5, 668- 13, 862

-14,417-5,320-8, 833

-26, 394

Fore[inci

Total

21, 69618, 66334, 67715, 55036, 96950, 86963, 260

14, 25120, 065

18, 095406

15, 48929, 270

ign assets*ease/capi1

Foreigrass

Total

10, 7056,299

10, 9816,907

18, 07337, 12433, 967

8,24615, 543

15, 760-5, 685

4,85219, 040

in the U.fcal inflow

i officialets

Assets offoreignofficialreserveagencies

10, 3225, 145

10, 2575, 259

13, 08035, 48031, 157

7,91415, 153

14, 956-5,373

4, 50217, 072

-8, 641

S., net(-HP

Otherforeignassets

10, 99112, 36423, 696

8, 64318, 89713, 74629, 293

6,0054,522

2,3366,090

10, 63710, 230

Alloca-tions

ofspecial

drawingrights

(SDR)

710

Statidiscre

Total(sum of

theitems

with signreversed)

- 1, 966-2,725- 1, 684

5,4499,300-927

11, 449

-4, 655771

4,5559, 087

-1,562-630

sticalpancy

Of

Seasonaladjust-ment

discrep-ancy

-2, 1331,455

917108

-2, 4551,431

U.S.officialreserveassets,net1

( unad-justed,end of

period)

13, 15114, 37815, 88316, 22618, 74719, 31218, 650

18, 98819, 312

19, 19218, 86418, 85018, 650

1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDK), convertible currencies, andthe U.S. reserve position in the IMF.

1 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De-partment of the Treasury.

37


ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page

Gross National Product 1Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars. 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product 2Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates 19Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders 21

PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices 23Changes in Producer Prices 24Changes in Consumer Prices 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock. 26Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors 27Consumer Instalment Credit 27Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt 32Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports 35U.S. International Transactions 36

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