economic indicators: february 1996 - fraser · 2018-11-07 · total output, income, and spending...

104th Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators

FEBRUARY 1996(Includes data available as of March 13, 1996)

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

27

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1996

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

CONNIE MACK, Florida, ChairmanJIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Vice Chairman

SENATEWILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)LARRY E. CRAIG (Idaho)ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah)RICK SANTORUM (Pennsylvania)RODNEY D. GRAMS (Minnesota)JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESTHOMAS W. EWING (Illinois)JACK QUINN (New York)DONALD A. MANZULLO (Illinois)MARSHALL (MARK) SANFORD (South Carolina)WILLIAM M. (MAC) THORNBERRY (Texas)FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)

ROBERT N. MOTTICE, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, ChairmanMARTIN N. BAILY, Member

ALICIA H. MUNNELL, Member

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That theJoint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and thata sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeantat Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copiesto the libraries of the -Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint EconomicCommittee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depositorylibraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949-

Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch,Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce,

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing)from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

For sale by the U.S. Government Printing OfficeSuperintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328

ISBN 0-16-047020-X

11


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTIn the fourth quarter of 1995, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose2.7 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1992 dollars) rose 0.9 percent, and the implicit price deflatorrose 1.8 percent.

BIUIONS OF DOUARS (RATIO SCALE] BIUIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE]

7,600

7,200

6,800

(5,400

6,000

5,600

5,200

4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

^GDP

MNED( 1992] DOHA

\

S

s

^1 1 11982

/

/

/

I I I

1983

s

S

i i i

1984

^ s ~~

/

i i i

1985

. — ~~

i i i

1986

--""

^\

x^

/ \/ GDP^ IN CURRENT DOLLARS

I i i

1987

i i i

1988

1 1 11989

"~^~

X"-~

1 1 11990

_ _ ,

>^

i i i

1991

^

i i i

1992

^/

I I I

1993

.-''"

i i i

1994

• — ^

i i i

1995

7,600

7,200

6,800

6,400

6,000

5,600

5,200

4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995P1990- IV1991- IV1992- IV1993- I

IIinIV

1994- IIIinIV

1995- IIIinIV P

Grossdomesticproduct

4,422.24,692.35,049.65,438.75,743.85,916.76,244.46,550.26,931.47,247.75,781.56,002.36,383.06,442.86,503.26,571.36,683.76,772.86,885.06,987.67,080.07,147.87,196.57,298.57,348.1

Personalcon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

2,892.73,094.53,349.73,594.83,839.33,975.14,219.84,454.14,698.74,923.43,907.04,027.14,329.64,367.84,424.74,481.04,543.04,599.24,665.14,734.44,796.04,836.34,908.74,960.04,988.8

Grossprivate

domesticinvest-ment

722.5747.2773.9829.2799.7736.2790.4871.1

1,014.41,067.5

736.1760.9816.1843.6855.9873.8911.2957.6

1,016.51,033.61,050.11,072.01,050.31,074.81,072.7

Exports and importsof goods and services

Netexports

-131.5-142 1-106.1-80.4-71.3-205-29.5-649-96.4

-101.7-72.0-14.8-42.7-47.4-62.0-77.1-73.2-80.3-97 4

-108.4-99.7

-106.6-122.4-100.8-76.9

Exports

320.7365.7447.2509.3557.3601.8639.4660.0722.0804.5577.3624.4649.1649.4662.5648.5679.4681.5708.6734.2763.6778.6796.9812.5830.1

Imports

452.2507.9553.2589.7628.6622.3669.0724.9818.4906.2649.2639.3691.8696.8724.6725.6752.6761.7806.0842.6863.3885.1919.3913.3907.0

Government consumption expendituresand gross investment

Total

938.5992.8

1,032.01,095.11,176.11,225.91,263.81,289.91,314.71,358.51,210.41,229.21,280.01,278.81,284.61,293.61,302.71,296.41,300.81,328.01,333.51,346.01,359.91,364.51,363.5

Federal

Total

435.2455.7457.3477.2503.6522.6528.0522.1516.3516.8516.7515.5535.0525.0519.6520.8522.9511.3509.4523.6520.9519.9522.6516.7508.0

Nationaldefense

332.4350.4354.0360.6373.1383.5375.8362.2352.0345.7383.3373.0375.3365.2362.2360.7360.8346.7349.3362.1349.6347.7352.3345.6337.1

Non-defense

102.9105.3103.3116.7130.4139.1152.2159.9164.3171.1133.3142.6159.7159.8157.4160.1162.2164.6160.0161.5171.2172.1170.3171.1170.9

Stateandlocal

503.3537.2574.7617.9672.6703.4735.8767.8798.4841.7693.7713.6745.1753.8765.0772.7779.7785.0791.4804.4812.6826.1837.3847.7855.4

Finalsales of

domesticproduct

4,412.64,668.15,038.75,407.05,735.85,919.06,237.46,529.76,871.87,209.65,812.95,980.96,376.66,422.96,481.66,549.36,664.96,732.66,810.56,922.97,021.37,089.77,162.57,260.37,325.9

Grossdomestic

pur-chases '

4,553.74,834.55,155.65,519.15,815.15,937.26,274.06,615.27,027.87,349.45,853.56,017.16,425.76,490.16,565.26,648.46,756.96,853.16,982.57,096.07,179.67,254.37,318.97,399.37,425.0

Adden-dum:Gross

nationalproduct

4,435.14,701.35,062.65,452.85,764.95,932.46,255.56,560.06,922.4

5,813.66,016.66,390.56,458.46,512.36,584.86,684.56,773.66,876.36,977.67,062.27,140.57,187.07,283.0

JGDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Keoriornie Analysts.


REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT| Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally a^usted annual rates]

Period

19861987198819891990199119921993 . . ..19941995?

1990- IV1991: IV1992- IV

1993- IIIinIV

1994: IIIinrv

1995- IJImIV


5,489.95,648.45,862.96,060.46,138.76,079.06,244.46,383.86,604.26,740.8

6,081.06,104.46,327.3

6,327.06,353.76,390.46,463.9

6,504.66,581.56,639.56,691.3

6,701.66,709.46,768.36,783.8

Personalcon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

3,708.73,822.33,972.74,064.64,132.24,105.84,219.84,339.74,471.14,577.4

4,116.44,109.14,282.3

4,290.04,319.04,359.74,390.0

4,418.84,457.74,485.84,522.3

4,530.94,568.84,600.44,609.7

Gross privatedomestic investment

Nonresi-dcntialfixed

invest-ment

548.5542.4566.0588.8585.2547.7557.9593.6652.1716.3

573.9539.5569.1

577.5586.4593.1617.6

628.6639.5660.4679.7

704.4710.6719.7730.7

Resi-dentialfixed

invest-ment

257.0257.6252.5243.2220.6193.4225.6242.7268.9262.5

200.3202.4236.7

237.9234.8242.2255.8

263.6271.6270.3270.3

265.9256.6262.3265.2

Changein busi-

nessinven-tories

10.926.211.633.310.4

-3.07.3

19.158.934.7

-28.221.45.8

18.520.819.517.4

40.174.164.057.3

54.530.633.220.4

Exports and imports ofgoods and services

Netexports

-163.9-1562-114.4-82.7-61.9-22.3-29.5-74.4

-108.1-1136

-42.5-17.9-40.0

-55.2-67.0-89.1-86.2

-101.3-112.2-113.3- 105.8

-119.0-126.8-114.3-94.1

Ex|K>rts

362.2402.0465.8520.2564.4599.9639.4660.6715.1774.7

573.9623.5649.1

649.8662.3648.9681.4

680.4704.3724.8751.0

755.8764.3779.1799.6

Imports

526.1558.2580.2603.0626.3622.2669.0735.0823.3888.3

616.4641.4689.1

705.1729.4738.1767.6

781.7816.5838.1856.8

874.9891.2893.4893.7


Total

1,135.01,165.91,180.91,213.91,250.41,258.01,263.81,260.51,259.91,261.0

1,259.91,250.71,272.5

1,257.21,257.91,261.11,265.7

1,252.31,249.71,271.01,266.6

1,263.01,265.81,263.61,251.7

Federal

Total

518.4534.4524.6531.5541.9539.4528.0508.7489.7473.0

543.5526.9534.0

515.7509.2505.4504.5

489.8483.3496.6489.1

481.3479.9472.7457.9

Nationaldefense

393.4409.2405.5401.6401.5397.5375.8354.9336.9320.1

403.1381.7376.8

361.2356.4351.2350.8

334.8335.5346.1331.3

325.3326.1319.3309.6

Non-defense

125.2125.3119.1130.1140.5142.0152.2153.8152.6152.6

140.5145.3157.1

154.5152.7154.2153.7

154.8147.7150.5157.5

155.6153.6153.1148.0

Stateandlocal

616.9631.8656.6682.6708.6718.7735.8751.8770.5788.6

716.5723.8738.5

741.6748.8755.7761.3

762.7766.8774.7777.7

782.2786.3791.5794.6

Finalsales ofdomesticproduct

5,480.95,626.05,855.16,028.76,126.76,082.66,237.46,362.96,546.36,705.5

6,108.16,083.86,320.7

6,307.76,331.66,368.26,444.1

6,464.06,509.06,576.86,635.2

6,647.56,677.46,733.36,763.9

Grossdomestic

pur-chases '

5,666.15,815.75,983.96,146.16,202.16,101.16,274.06,457.36,709.76,850.9

6,124.36,122.36,367.3

6,382.06,420.26,478.36,548.7

6,603.96,691.06,749.76,794.0

6,816.96,832.06,879.46,875.3

Adden-dum:Gross

nationalproduct

5,503.45,657.25,876.26,074.06,159.46,094.46,255.56,393.76,596.6

6,113.46,118.76,334.8

6,342.76,362.96,404.06,465.1

6,506.26,573.96,631.16,675.4

6,695.76,701.26,754.6

1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.Note.—llecause of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollar esti-

mates for the detailed components rlo not will to the chained-doilar value of GDP or to anyintermediate aggregates.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTj Index numbers, 1992= 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995P

1990: IV1991: IV1992: IV

1993- IIImIV

1994- IIImrv

1995- IIIinIV


80.683.186.189.793.697.3

100.0102.6105.0107.5

95.198.3

100.9

101.8102.4102.8103.4

104.1104.6105.2105.8

106.7107.3107.8108.3

Personal constimptionexpenditures

Total

78.081.084.388.492.996.8

100.0102.6105.1107.6

94.998.0

101.1

101.8102.4102.8103.5

104.1104.7105.5106.1

106.7107.4107.8108.2

Durablegoods

88.991.693.395.396.698.5

100.0101.3103.4104.4

97.099.1

100.2

100.5101.1101.5101.9

102.4103.2104.0103.9

104.6104.7104.4103.7

Nondura-ble goods

78.781.884.889.394.698.1

100.0101.5102.8104.5

97.498.7

100.7

101.3101.5101.3101.9

102.0102.4103.3103.6

103.9104.5104.6105.0

Services

75.378.282.286.691.295.8

100.0103.6106.7109.9

93.197.4

101.5

102.4103.3103.9104.7

105.6106.2107.1107.9

108.8109.7110.3111.0

Gross privatedomestic investment

Nonresi-dentialfixed

90.291.393.796.298.499.9

100.0100.9102.3103.3

99.499.9

100.1

100.5100.8101.0101.1

101.6102.2102.7102.7

102.7103.4103.7103.4

Residen-tial fixed

84.988.392.195.197.898.8

100.0103.7107.0110.3

98.398.9

101.4

102.3103.6104.3104.7

105.7106.2107.4108.6

109.2109.9110.7111.3

Exports and imports ofgoods and services

Exports

88.591.096.097.998.7

100.3100.099.9

101.0103.8

100.6100.2100.0

99.9100.0

99.999.7

100.2100.6101.3101.7

103.0104.3104.3103.8

Imports

86.091.095.397.8

100.4100.0100.098.699.4

102.0

105.399.7

100.4

98.899.398.398.0

97.498.7

100.5100.8

101.2103.2102.2101.5


Federal

Total

84.085.387.289.892.996.9

100.0102.6105.4109.3

95.197.8

100.2

101.8102.0103.0103.6

104.4105.4105.4106.5

108.0108.9109.3110.9

Nationaldefense

84.585.687.389.892.996.5

100.0102.1104.5108.0

95.197.799.6

101.1101.6102.7102.8

103.6104.1104.6105.6

106.9108.0108.2108.9

Non-defense

82.284.086.789.792.897.9

100.0104.0107.7112.2

94.998.1

101.6

103.4103.1103.9105.5

106.3108.3107.3108.7

110.6110.9111.8115.5

Stateandlocal

81.685.087.590.594.997.9

100.0102.1103.6106.7

96.898.6

100.9

101.6102.2102.3102.4

102.9103.2103.8104.5

105.6106.5107.1107.7

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


QUANTITY AND PRICE INDEXES FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ANDPERCENT CHANGES

(Quarterly data arc seasonally a(h;usted|

Index nuintern, 1992=100

Currentdollars

Chain-typequantity

index

Chain-typeprice index

Implicitprice

deflator

Percent change from preceding period'

Currentdollars

Chain-typequantity

index

Chain- typepriceindex

Implicitprice

deflator

19821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995C1991: I

II ....in ..IV ...

1992: III ....in ..IV ...

1993: III ....in ..IV ...

1994: III ....m ..IV ...

1995: III ....in ..Pfp .

51.956.362.567.070.875.180.987.192.094.8

100.0104.9111.0116.193.294.495.396.198.099.3

100.4102.2103.2104.1105.2107.0108.5110.3111.9113.4114.5115.2116.9117.7

74.077.082.385.387.990.593.997.198.397.3

100.0102.2105.8107.996.997.397.597.898.999.5

100.3101.3101.3101.7102.3103.5104.2105.4106.3107.2107.3107.4108.4108.6

70.273.275.978.680.683.186.189.793.697.3

100.0102.6105.0107.696.397.097.798.399.199.8

100.2100.9101.8102.4102.8103.4104.1104.6105.2105.8106.7107.3107.9108.5

70.173.175.978.480.683.186.189.793.697.3

100.0102.6105.0107.596.397.097.798.399.199.8

100.2100.9101.8102.4102.8103.4104.1104.6105.2105.8106.7107.3107.8108.3

4.18.4

11.07.15.86.17.67.75.63.05.54.95.84.62.84.94.03.68.25.34.67.33.83.84.37.05.46.86.15.43.92.85.82.7

-2.14.06.83.73.02.93.83.41.3

-1.02.72.23.52.1

-2.21.71.01.04.72.53.04.3

.01.72.34.72.54.83.63.2

.6

.53.6

.9

6.34.23.83.42.63.13.74.24.43.92.82.62.32.54.83.22.82.53.42.81.52.83.82.21.82.32.81.92.42.23.32.52.22.2

6.34.23.93.32.73.13.74.24.34.02.72.62.32.45.13.12.92.53.32.71.52.93.82.11.92.22.81.92.42.23.22.32.21.8

1 Percent changes shown here are calculatechanges are at annual rate;.

using unrounded data. Quarterly percent Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT. COSTS, AND PROFITSI Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross domestic productof norifinancial

eorjxjrate business(billions of dollars)

Currentdollars

Chained(1992)dollars

Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of real output (dollars)'

Totalcost andprofit2

Consump-tion offixed

capital

Indirectbusinesstax, etc.11

Com-pensation

of em-ployees

Corporate profits with inventoryvaluation and capital consumption

adjustments

Profitstax

liability

Profitsaftertax4

Netntcrest

1986198719881989199019911992199319941990: IV .1991: IV .1992: IV .

1993: III ..mrv.

1994: III ..mrv.

1995: III..

2,416.32,589.62,805.22,950.93,084.03,132.13,262.63,437.53,688.43,097.43,159.53,341.73,345.33,407.83,458.73,538.0

3,594.43,664.93,707.23,786.9

3,796.43,832.43,916.1

2,832.42,967.03,122.13,175.43.212.53,168.83,262.63,380.03,567.13,190.23,182.53,328.5

3,304.03,357.43,398.43,460.1

3,496.23,554.53,576.23,641.5

3,631.63,646.13,715.1

0.853.873.898.929.960.9881.0001.0171.034.971.9931.0041.0121.0151.0181.023

1.0281.0311.0371.040

1.0451.0511.054

0.100.100.101.106.110.116.115.115.116.112.116.113

.116

.115

.116

.114

.122

.114

.114

.113

.114

.116

.115

0.083.083.084.088.092.100.103.105.106.095.103.105

.105

.105

.105

.107

.107

.106

.107

.106

.109

.110

.108

0.566.578.591.614.640.660.673.679.682.649.667.672

.681

.679

.679

.676

.679

.681

.683

.686

.694

.698

.695

0.069.076.082.075.072.070.077.088.102.068.068.085

.079

.085

.089

.098

.093

.103

.105

.108

.100

.100

.109

0.027.031.033.031.030.027.028.031.036.030.027.030

.028

.031

.029

.034

.035

.036

.037

.039

.039

.038

.038

0.042.044.050.044.042.043.049.057.066.039.041.055.050.055.059.065

.058

.067

.068

.070

.061

.062

.071

0.035.035.039.046.046.042.032.029.027.046.039.030

.031

.030

.029

.028

.027

.028

.028

.027

.028

.028

.027

'Output is measured by <JDP of riorifinancial cor|>orate business in chained (1992) dollars.2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business

with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.:t Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.

4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption afhjistments.

Sources: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


NATIONAL INCOME| Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)

Period

1989199019911992199319941995P1990- IV1991- IV1992: IV1993- I

IIinIV

1994: IIIm .. .IV

1995- IIImIV

Nationalincome

4,362.14,611.94,719.74,950.85,194.45,495.1

4,667.24,770.05,061.75,094.95,159.95,213.05,309.9

5,300.55,493.75,551.25,635.05,697.75,738.95,849.2

Compen-sation

ofemploy-

ees'

3,151.63,352.83,457.93,644.93,809.44,008.34,209.43,395.93,511.03,707.03,744.13,787.83,834.83,871.0

3,933.63,993.34,022.74,083.74,141.64,178.94,235.94,281.1

Proprietors' incomewith inventory valu-

ation and capital eon-sumption adjustments

Farm

36.836.330.238.032.035.028.733.931.037.331.535.826.134.440.835.131.932.328.527.628.130.6

Nonfarm

308.2324.6332.7371.5388.1415.9449.2

327.1341.1385.1382.0381.8388.1400.5380.3419.3426.8437.1443.5447.1451.5454.7

Kentalincome

ofpersons

withcapital

consump-tion

adjust-ment

52.461.468.480.6

102.5116.6122.267.373.092.398.4

102.9104.1104.5101.1121.0122.2121.9120.6121.6120.9125.7

Corporate profits with inventory valuation andcapital consumption adjustments

Total

356.4369.5382.5401.4464.5526.5

365.5379.6427.7

426.4449.0469.6512.8455.9531.5549.8568.9

559.6561.1614.9

Profits with inventory valuationadjustment and without capital

consumption adjustment

Total

330.6358.2378.2398.9457.7514.9

356.5375.2420.5

421.4443.2465.9500.4

467.8513.4531.0547.6542.2546.1600.3

Profitsbefore tax

348.1371.7374.2406.4464.3528.2

376.7382.8420.3436.0458.8458.0504.5

471.7523.2547.5570.4594.1588.4609.6

Inventoryvaluationadjust-ment

-17.5-13.5

4.0-7.5-6.6

-13.3-27.6-20.3-7.6

.2-14.6-15.6

7.9-4.0-3.9-98

-16.5-22 8-51.9-423-9.3-68

Capitalconsump-

tionadjust-ment

25.811.3

4.32.56.7

11.615.99.04.57.25.05.83.8

12.3-11.8

18.118.821.317.415.014.616.5

Netinterest

456.6467.3448.0414.3398.1392.8

477.5434.3412.4412.6402.6390.4386.7

388.7393.5397.8391.1403.9402.6397.8

1 Includes employer contributions for soda! insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of chained (1992) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally a<Uusted annual rates|

Period

1989199019911992199319941995<>1990- IV1991: IV1992- IV1993: I .. .

IIinIV

1994: IIIinIV

1995- IIImIV?

Totalpersonal

con-sumptionexpendi-

tures

4,064.64,132.24,105.84,219.84,339.74,471.14,577.44,116.44,109.14,282.34,290.04,319.04,359.74,390.04,418.84,457.74,485.84,522.3

4,530.94,568.84,600.44,609.7

Durable goods

Totaldurablegoods

496.2493.3462.0488.5524.1562.0581.1476.3461.5505.0

506.0519.6528.9541.9549.6555.4563.0579.9

566.9576.6589.7591.2

Motorvehicles

andparts

230.3224.3193.2206.9218.6228.2221.3210.0194.6213.9210.8219.0219.1225.4

230.3226.7226.4229.4

216.2220.7225.9222.3

Fur-nitureand

house-hold

equip-ment

170.9173.5177.0189.4208.4230.1251.8171.5178.0196.4200.8205.1211.0216.8219.0226.1232.5242.7

243.3247.5254.9261.4

Other

96.496.691.892.397.2

104.2109.795.588.994.694.595.598.999.9

100.4103.0104.7108.8108.9109.9110.5109.6

Nondurable goods

Totalnondura-

ble{roods

1,303.51,316.11,302.91,321.81,348.91,390.51,421.51,308.41,295.71,339.81,336.91,344.71,354.21,359.8

1,372.71,383.71,397.21,408.4

1,416.81,423.51,425.41,420.3

Food

650.1662.9659.6660.0674.3689.1701.6662.9656.5668.6670.5672.9675.7677.9

682.2688.5690.6695.1700.7701.6703.9700.2

Clothingand

shoes

220.7217.9215.9225.5233.3247.2257.1215.1213.1230.9227.4232.3235.0238.6

241.1243.3249.0255.5

254.6258.0258.9257.1

Gasolineand oil

108.1107.3103.4106.6109.1110.4113.3104.9102.5107.3108.2108.0110.9109.3108.8109.5111.6111.6113.4113.6112.5113.5

Fueloil

amieoal

12.611.210.810.910.710.310.39.9

10.610.710.910.610.710.611.410.010.29.69.9

10.610.010.6

Other

311.5316.7313.2318.8321.6333.6339.4

315.6312.8322.3319.9320.9322.0323.4329.2332.4336.0336.7

338.3340,0340.3339.1

Services

Totalservices '

2,262.32,321.32,341.02,409.42,466.82,519.42,575.7

2,331.22,352.02,437.62,447.02,454.92,476.72,488.6

2,497.02,519.02,526.32,535.1

2,548.12,569.62,586.32,598.8

Housing

614.6627.2635.2646.8655.0668.2681.9630.6638.6650.6

652.2653.5655.9658.5

662.1666.1670.7674.1677.4680.0683.2687.0

Medicalcart!

575.8602.8621.6646.6658.8668.8684.0

610.6630.8652.2656.6657.5659.7661.4663.2667.6670.4674.2

677.8681.3686.1690.7

Retail sales of newpassenger ears

(millions of units)

Domestics

7.16.96.16.36.77.37.16.66.16.46.36.96.77.17.37.27.27.37.06.97.57.3

Imports

2.72.42.01.91.81.71.52.22.01.91.81.91.81.71.81.81.81.61.61.61.51.4

1 Includes other items, not shown separately.NOTB.—Because of the formula used for calculating real (51)1*, the chained (1992) dollar

estimates for the detailed components (In not (M to the chained-dollar value of GDI* or to anyintermediate

Source: Department of Ommierce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $7.5 billion (annual rate) in January, following an increase of $38.4 billion in December.The January increase was affected by a number of special factors, including cost-of-living adjustments to severalFederal transfer payment programs and pay raises for Federal civilian and military employees. Adjustments foruninsured damages to residential and business property due to the severe winter storms in January will be incor-porated into data to be released in April.

BIlilONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,400

800

400 I I I M I I I I M

1988i i I I I I I i 1 1 1

1989

* SEASONAUY ADJUSTS) ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

M I I I I I I I I I

1990

TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME

\WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

OTHER INCOME '

TRANSFER PAYMENTS

199) 1992

I I I I I I M I 1 i

1993 1994

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* [RATIO SCALE)

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,400

800

1995

I I I I l I l I I I I 4001996

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1986198719881989 ...19901991 .1992199319941995? ....

1995- JanPeb . .

May

Julyr

Septr ..Oetr

Novr ....

1996- Jan*1

Totalpersonalincome

3,647.53,877.34,172.84,489.34,791.64,968.55,264.25,479.25,750.26,100.95,977.05,993.76,015.96,053.96,046.26,085.56,123.16,125.96,157.96,186.36,203.76,242.16,249.6

Wage andsalary

disburse-ments1

2,116.52,272.72,453.62,598.12,757.52,827.62,986.43,090.63,241.13,419.73,354.53,360.83,369.43,399.23,374.73,405.93,438.73,433.33,454.83,476.53,474.63,494.13,487.8

Other laborincome 1 2

216.0235.4251.7273.1300.6322.7351.3380.9402.2424.0416.2417.7419.2420.6422.0423.4424.6425.8427.2428.7430.2431.7427.4

Proprietors' income3

Farm

25.232.328.236.836.330.238.032.035.028.729.428.427.827.827.627.427.628.028.829.830.631.333.1

Nonfarm

242.6260.6294.7308.2324.6332.7371.5388.1415.9449.2442.8443.0444.7445.5446.2449.7448.4451.9454.2452.9454.7456.7456.1

Rentalincome

ofpersons*

42.345.555.752.461.468.480.6

102.5116.6122.1122.2120.5119.1120.4122.1122.3122.0120.6120.2119.0126.9130.1130.6

Personaldividendincome

105.1101.1109.9130.9142.9153.6159.4186.8199.6214.8208.8209.4210.4211.5212.1212.9214.3215.6217.4219.5221.9223.8225.3

Personalinterestincome

543.3560.0595.5674.5704.4699.2667.2647.3661.6714.4695.8702.3707.6711.4714.1716.4716.8717.4718.3720.6724.3727.7730.3

Transferpayments 5

518.6543.3577.6626.0687.8769.9858.2910.7956.3

1,022.6996.9,001.7,008.4,010.6,018.8,021.0,026.6

1,028.91,034.11,038.21,039.41,046.91,058.3

Less: Per-sonal con-tributionsfor socialinsurance

162.1173.7194.2210.8223.9235.8248.4259.6278.1294.6289.6290.1290.9293.0291.4293.6295.9295.6297.2299.0298.9300.3299.4

1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensa-tion of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance andthe excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.

2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.

3With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.4With capital consumption adjustment.5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEAccording to advance estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1992) dollars rose in thefourth quarter of 1995.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)

6,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)

10,000

8,000

10,000

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOT1SERS

Period

1987 ..19881989199019911992199319941995^

1990- IV1991: IV ....1992: IV1993: I

IIIllIV

1994: IIIIllIV

1995: IIIIII .IVp

Personalincome

Ije&S:Personaltax andnontax

payments

Equals:Disposablepersona!infiome

Less:Personaloutlays '

Equals:Personalsaving

Billions of dollars

3,877.34,172.84,489.34,791.64,968.55,264.25,479.25,750.26,101.0

514.2532.0594.9624.8624.8650.5689.9731.4794.6

3,363.13 640.83,894.54,166.84,343.74,613.74,789.35,018.85,306.4

3,194,73,451 73,706.73,958.14,097.44,341.04,572.94,826.55,065.7

168.4189.1187.8208.7246.4272.6216.4192.4240.7

Dispos-able

personalincome inbillions ofchained(1992)dollars

4,154.14,318.14,403.74,484.64,486.44,613.74,666.24,775.64,933.5

Per capitadisposable personal

income

Currentdollars


Per capita personalconsumptionexpenditures

Currentdollars


Dollars

13,84914,85715,74216,67017,19118,06218,55219,25320,169

17,10617,62117,80117,94117,75618,06218,07518,32018,752

12,74313,66914,53115,36015,73216,52017,25318,02518,714

15,74016,21116,43016,53216,24916,52016,81017,15217,399

Percentchangein real

per capitadisposablepersonalincome

Saving aspercent ofdisposablepersonalincome

Percent

0.73.01.0.8

1 01.7.1

1.42.4

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

4,868.65,048.95,415.35,348.75,458.45,500.55,609.15,562.45,743.05,801.75,893.95,995.56,061.96,135.66,210.9

627.1632.5674.8662.4686.9696.4713.8705.5740.8731.3748.1770.0801.5798.4808.3

4,241.54,416.44,740.54,686.34,771.64,804.14,895.34,856.95,002.25,070.45,145.85,225.55,260.45,337.25,402.5

4,027.94,149.84,450.04,486.64,542.64,599.34,663.24,723.04,791.94,863.04,927.94,972.25,049.05,104.65,137.2

213.5266.6290.5199.6228.9204.9232.1133.9210.3207.4217.8253.3211.4232.6265.4

4,468.84,506.34,688.74,602.84,657.64,674.04,730.44,666.44,779.84,804.24,852.04,895.54,896.14,950.34,992.0

16,89617,40518,47818,22318,51018,58518,88718,69919,21519,42719,66619,93120,02120,26320,462

17,80217,75918,27717,89918,06818,08118,25117,96618,36118,40718,54418,67218,63418,79418,907

15,56415,87116,87716,98517,16417,33517,52817,70717,92018,13918,33018,44718,68218,83118,895

16,39816,19416,69216,68216,75416,86516,93717,01317,12317,18717,28317,28217,38817,46517,459

-3.8-.06.7

-8.03.8

.33.8

-6.19.11.03.02.8-.83.52.4

5.05.24.85.05.75.94.53.84.5

5.06.06.14.34.84.34.72.84.24.14.24.84.04.44.9

Population,including

ArmedForces

overseas(thou-

sands) 2

242,842245,061247,387249,956252,680255,432258,159260,681263,090

251,031253,743256,543257,155257,787258,501259,192259,738260,327261,004261,653262,181262,748263,399264,032

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transferpayments to rest of the world (net).

2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the |>eriod.Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the (Census).


FARM INCOMEIn the third quarter of 1995, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $15.2 billion (annual rate)and net farm income rose $13.2 billion.

BILLIC

240200

160

120

80

An

)NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO S

-*r~^^ — r-~_^

v ^ /— v ^ ^ ^0 - -- — ,, -f r\^i \

GROSS FARM INCOME

1* •- • '

CALE)

240200

160

120

80

60

40

20

10

40

20

10

" SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted animal rates]

Period

198619871988 . .1989199019911992199319941993- I

IIIllTV

1994- IIIIIITV

1995- IrIPTTT>>

Income of farm operators from fanning

Gross farm income

Total1

156.1168.3177.3191.9198.5191.8200.5203.0213.5203.9203.4198.9205.6218.8206.1211.8217.1210.4203.8219.0

Cash marketing receipts

Total

135.4141.8151.2160.8169.4167.8171.3177.1179.7174.3177.2187.7169.4178.8169.7185.8184.4183.6179.6202.1

Livestock andproducts

71.676.079.683.989.285.885.690.088.183.787.9

101.387.392.082.897.679.986.778.499.8

Crops

63.865.871.676.980.382.085.787.191.690.689.386.382.186.886.988.2

104.596.8

101.2102.4

Value ofinventorychanges 2

-2.2-2.3-4.1

3.83.5

0

4.2-4.5

8.7-8.0-6.3-7.4

3.710.610.0

7.86.3-.6-.5-.5

Productionexpenses

125.1130.2139.8146.9153.7153.4152.6160.9166.7158.5160.8162.6161.7164.3166.5168.5167.6

163.1165.5167.5

Net farmincome

31.138.037.545.044.838.447.942.146.745.442.736.343.954.539.643.349.547.338.351.5

'Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cashincome, and norimoney income furnished by farms.

2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop arid livestock commodities valued at aver-age prices during1 the year.

NOTK.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.Quarterly date plotted for 1989 through 1992 in chart do not reflect previous revisions to

animal fiats in table.Sources: Department of Agriculture.


CORPORATE PROFITSIn the third quarter of 1995, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $21.2 billion (annualrate) and profits after tax rose $11.0 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

660

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

SEASONAIiY ADJUSTS) ANNUAL RATCS

/

/

J

PROFITS BEFORE TAX /\ /

y^L „ /

r1v^.

~ — .

" ^

1 1 i1982

7/

/'" "

1 1 i1983

^

^1-

i i i1984

^^-^

*_--,

....

1985

^y

s

I t

1986

^ /

.s'

„--•

/ UNDI;t 1 1

1987

yPROF

/ ~"

-''"'"

\TRIBUTED

I I I1988

r\ y^"^TS AFTER T

XN\

X

X

'ROFITS

I I I1989

AX

,'-"

TAXI

..^'"'^

1990

\~^

— ~- -r

JABILJTY

\X

-»__*''

1 1 t

1991

V

,-^ /

' \/

\ t"\/

1992

y

/s

^/-„

1 ! 1

1993

S/

S/

•'

,'''

1 1 !

1994

f-S

-

-

-

t-" -

-

-

'

-

-

-

I I I1995

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

SCXJRCE: DEWJITMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted animal rates]

Period

19861987198819891990 . . ..1991199219931994 .. ..1990: IV1991- IV1992: IV

1993: IIIinIV

1994- IIIinIV

1995- IIIinre>

Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment '

Total2

234.0272.9325.0330.6358.2378.2398.9457.7514.9356.5375.2420.5

421.4443.2465.9500.4

467.8513.4531.0547.6

542.2546.1600.3

Domestic industries

Total

199.3231.3274.3272.6292.5309.5334.0388.1453.7282.5303.6361.2

347.0375.7393.1436.8

407.0452.4469.9485.5

467.5468.2527.1

Finan-cial

36.437.143.053.168.687.483.791.094.470.587.683.1

85.788.188.8

101.3

64.997.8

108.4106.4

114.3112.6130.4

Nonfinancial

Total3

162.9194.2231.2219.6223.8222.1250.3297.2359.3212.1216.1278.1

261.2287.6304.3335.4

342.1354.6361.5379.0

353.2355.6396.7

Manufac-turing

60.285.0

115.1109.3112.3

92.796.3

109.7142.7108.483.8

105.1

90.4108.4106.0134.0

145.3134.2142.8148.4

134.7137.8153.2

Whole-sale

22.916.719.320.417.220.623.025.534.516.917.028.3

17.928.627.028.7

28.839.534.335.4

29.726.431.2

Retail

23.723.919.620.720.626.132.239.242.222.828.637.3

36.338.142.439.8

38.343.243.743.6

36.036.642.5

Profitsbefore

tax

222.6293.6354.3348.1371.7374.2406.4464.3528.2376.7382.8420.3

436.0458.8458.0504.5

471.7523.2547.5570.4

594.1588.4609.6

Taxliability

106.5127.1137.0141.3140.5133.4143.0163.8195.3139.7135.2149.7

151.5162.6159.3181.7

171.4192.8203.4213.5

217.3214.2224.5

Profits after tax

Total

116.1166.5217.3206.8231.2240.8263.4300.5332.9237.1247.6270.6

284.6296.2298.6322.7

300.3330.4344.1356.8

376.8374.1385.1

Dividends

110.2107.0116.8138.9151.9163.1169.5197.3211.0152.0165.3180.4

190.2195.8200.2202.9

204.4208.8212.5218.5

221.7224.6228.5234.7

Undis-tributedprofits

5.859.5

100.567.979.477.793.9

103.3121.985.082.290.3

94.4100.498.4

119.8

95.9121.7131.6138.3

155.1149.6156.6

Inventoryvaluationadjust-ment

11.4-20.7-29.3-17.5-13.5

4.0-7.5-6.6

-13.3-20.3-7.6

.2

-14.6-15.6

7.9-4.0

-3.9-9.8

-16.5-22.8

-51.9-42.3-9.3-6.8

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.

3 Includes industries not shown separately.Sourpc: Department of Oxmmieree, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTIn the fourth quarter of 1995, according to advance estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1992)dollars rose $11.0 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $2.9 billion. There was an increase of $20.4billion in inventories, following an increase of $33.2 billion in the third quarter.

BILLIONS OF CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

X^

/\

\

N.

— ._•••*'

* \

1 1 1

1982

J

s

s

t

1 1 11983

/

s

N

1 1 1

1984

1 1

_ ~ ~ -

" -

i i i1985

-\ _yy^r^

-s

\1 1 11986

I \ 1GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC

1

_-""

MVESTMEh

^ '

JT

FIX

RESIDENTIALFIXED INVESTMENT

CHANC

i i i

1987

._.!._

5E IN BUSI^NTORIE

i i i1988

slESS

, - . _ _

i i i1989

P^

\

YlDNRESIDEED INVEST

-•„.

,*x

N

1 1 1

1990

\^\

'---.

MENT

l l l1991

y

.*-••

1 1 11992

fS

"""

....

i i i1993

^*'

/---

1994

r^^-

^

**> — «.

1 1 1

1995

BILLIONS OF CHAINED (1992) DOLLARS

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995?

1990- IV1991: IV1992: IV

1993: IIIinIV

1994: I . . . .IIinIV .

1995: I .IIinIVP

Grossprivate

domesticinvestment

813.8820.5826.0861.9817.3737.7790.4857.3979.6

1,013.3

748.1762.4812.4

834.8843.2857.6893.4

933.5984.6994.1

1,006.3

1,024.2998.3

1,016.21,014.7

Fixed investment

Total

805.0799.4818.3832.0805.8741.3783.4836.4921.1977.9

774.4742.0805.8

815.4821.1835.4873.5

892.4911.4930.8949.7

969.6966.1981.0994.8

Nonresidential

Total

548.5542.4566.0588.8585.2547.7557.9593.6652.1716.3

573.9539.5569.1

577.5586.4593.1617.6

628.6639.5660.4679.7

704.4710.6719.7730.7

Structures

203.3195.9196.8201.2203.3181.6169.2166.3168.8181.5

196.0171.4165.6

167.0164.8165.1168.2

163.0169.0169.1174.3

178.5180.0182.7184.8

Producers'durable

equipment

345.9346.9369.2387.6381.9366.2388.7427.6484.1536.1

377.9368.1403.5

410.5421.7428.2449.8

466.5471.2492.4506.4

527.1531.9538.2547.2

Residential

257.0257.6252.5243.2220.6193.4225.6242.7268.9262.5

200.3202.4236.7

237.9234.8242.2255.8

263.6271.6270.3270.3

265.9256.6262.3265.2

Qiange in businessinventories

Total

10.926.211.633.310.43 07.3

19.158.934.7

-28.221.4

5.8

18.520.819.517.4

40.174.164.057.3

54.530.633.220.4

Nonfarm

12.434.224.733.57.8

-1.21.9

26.446.838.4

-25.919.97.2

26.026.730.922.1

29.854.150.153.3

58.133.838.323.6

NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type.lleeause of the formula used for calculating real GDI*, the chained (1992) dollar estimates

for the detailed components <lo not titbl to the chairied-dollar value of GDP or to any intermedi-ate !



REAL FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE[Billions of chained (1992) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates)

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995*

1990- IV1991: IV1992- IV1993- I

IIinIV

1994: InmIV

1995: IIIinWP

Nonresidential

Totalnonresi-dential

548.5542.4566.0588.8585.2547.7557.9593.6652.1716.3

573.9539.5569.1577.5586.4593.1617.6628.6639.5660.4679.7704.4710.6719.7730.7

Structures

Total1

203.3195.9196.8201.2203.3181.6169.2166.3168.8181.5

196.0171.4165.6167.0164.8165.1168.2163.0169.0169.1174.3178.5180.0182.7184.8

Non-resi-

dentialbuild-ings,

includ-ing

farm

144.5142.4145.3150.2152.0126.9113.2112.8117.7128.1

143.8116.4109.8111.4110.6112.7116.3112.4117.8117.4123.3125.4126.8129.2131.0

Utili-ties

36.530.730.030.928.132.034.531.131.735.2

28.933.333.932.431.030.730.530.731.232.132.733.734.835.836.3

Miningexplo-ration,shafts,

andwells

15.815.515.813.916.115.713.314.812.611.3

16.314.413.715.215.214.614.213.413.312.211.512.510.711.011.1

Producers' durable equipment

Total i

345.9346.9369.2387.6381.9366.2388.7427.6484.1536.1

377.9368.1403.5410.5421.7428.2449.8466.5471.2492.4506.4527.1531.9538.2547.2

Information processingand related equipment

Total

94.197.5

106.6116.2116.2117.8134.2147.1170.4202.2

115.7122.5138.9139.5142.2150.7156.0161.2166.6171.5182.5189.2199.9201.9217.9

Com-puters

andpe-

riph-eral

equip-ment2

16.721.024.029.429.432.443.956.269.391.6

29.936.647.551.152.958.362.564.667.169.376.380.288.292.0

106.1

Other

84.680.285.788.188.285.990.291.5

102.6114.6

87.186.2.91.588.689.693.194.697.8

100.8103.6108.3111.5115.1114.1117.8

In-dus-trial

equip-ment

93.591.195.3

101.595.088.389.396.3

105.9116.2

91.486.492.693.794.496.3

100.7102.8104.3107.0109.4114.2118.4116.7115.6

Trans-porta-tionand

relatedequip-ment

85.682.187.178.981.281.786.297.5

111.7118.5

82.881.691.593.099.595.0

102.7109.0105.3115.9116.5121.7114.8120.4117.0

Residential

Totalresi-den-tial 3

257.0257.6252.5243.2220.6193.4225.6242.7268.9262.5

200.3202.4236.7237.9234.8242.2255.8263.6271.6270.3270.3265.9256.6262.3265.2

Structures

Total

251.3251.6246.3237.0214.5187.6219.5236.3262.1255.5

194.4196.6230.5231.7228.5235.7249.2257.0264.8263.5263.2258.9249.7255.3258.2

Singlefamily

119.3128.3126.1121.9110.496.4

116.5127.1140.5127.5

97.6105.1121.6124.9122.5126.3134.4140.3143.5140.8137.4133.0123.0125.8128.1

Multi-family

35.928.323.423.319.715.413.110.413.517.7

18.614.211.510.310.010.710.611.212.814.515.616.817.417.818.7

Other

95.894.896.891.884.475.789.998.8

108.1110.8

78.177.397.496.596.098.7

104.1105.4108.4108.2110.4109.3109.8112.2111.9

1 Includes other items, not shown separately.2 Includes new computers and peripheral equipment only.3 Includes producers' durable equipment, not shown separately.

NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1992) dollarestimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to anyintermediate aggregates.


BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND PLANS[Billions of dollars]

Period

19931

19942

1995 3

Totalex-

pendi-tures

489.7

549.0

600.7

By industry

Total

488.2

518.6

587.3

Miningandcon-

struc-tion

31.2

34.9

35.6

Manufacturing

Total

134.1

144.1

181.8

Dura-ble

goods

66.4

76.1

100.6

Non-durablegoods

67.7

68.1

81.2

Trans-porta-tion

30.6

32.3

37.0

Com-muni-cations

37.1

44.6

49.3

Utili-ties

41.3

38.0

41.8

Whole-saleand

retailtrade

60.3

68.1

75.7

Fi-nance,insur-ance,andreal

estate

40.2

36.9

47.1

Serv-ices

111.8

118.5

117.3

Servingmul-tiple

indus-tries

1.7

1.2

1.6

Notdistrib-

utedby

indus-try

1.4

30.4

13.51 Estimates collected from the 1993 Annual Capital Expenditures Survey.2 Preliminary estimates collected from the February 1995 Investment Plans Survey. Final

data are scheduled to be published in January 1996 in the 1994 Annual Capital ExpendituresSurvey.

3 Revised estimates of planned capital expenditures from the September 1995 Investment

Plans Survey.NOTE.—Data from Business Investment and Plans, 1993 to 1995, released September 22,

1995. For further information, see Annual Capital Expenditures,- 1993, and Technical Note onNew Annual Capital Expenditures Survey, September 1995.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

10Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESSTATUS OF THE LABOR FORCEIn February, employment rose by 437,000 and unemployment fell by 322,000. (Series revised.)

MILL!

134

130

126

122

118

114

110

105

ONS OF PERSONS * MILLIONS OF PERSO

_^^""

-

>•

^^-

_—-—-

- - _ —

--^,

s

IAN LABOR FO

^A-i

r— *\^_^—

EASONAILY ADJUSTED _-*— 1

^~^

~'\"CIVILIAN

EMPLOYMENT

r- ~

-X-^"

^m*

^'"

" i""

X

-

-

V

NS*

134

130

126

122

118

114

110

106

1995 1996


[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

Period

19863

1987198819891990 3 '1991 '1992 '1993'19944

1995

1995: Febr

Marr

Aprr

Mayr

Septr

Octr

NoVDecr

1996' Janr

Feb

Civiliannoninstitu-

tionalpopulation

NSA

180,587182,753184,613186,393189,164190,925192,805194,838196,814198,584

197,886198,007198,148198,286198,453198,615198,801199,005199,192199,355199,508

199,634199.773

Civilianlaborforce

117,834119,865121,669123,869125,840126,346128,105129,200131,056132,304

132,078132,391132,529132,058131,962132,342132,298132,501132,473132,471132,352

132,903133.018

Civilian employment

Total

109,597112,440114,968117,342118,793117,718118,492120,259123,060124,900

124,881125,106124,973124,598124,566124,832124,859125,036125,244125,062124,981

125,226125,663

Agricul-tural

3,1633,2083,1693,1993,2233,2693,2473,1153,4093,440

3,5963,6363,5283,3603,4353,4093,3763,3353,4343,3233,325

3,5293.519

Nonagricultural

Total

106,434109,232111,800114,142115,570114,449115,245117,144119,651121,460

121,285121,470121,445121,238121,131121,423121,483121,701121,810121,739121,656

121,698122,143

Part timefor

economicreasons 1

5,3455,1224,9654,6574,9505,8746,2406,2304,4144,279

4,2254,2924,2114,2734,2634,2564,2914,3554,2744,2834,306

3,8424,274

Unemployment

Total

8,2377,4256,7016,5287,0478,6289,6138,9407,9967,404

7,1977,2857,5567,4607,3967,5107,4397,4657,2297,4097,371

7,6777.355

15weeksandover

2,2321,9831,6101,3751,5252,3573,4083,0942,8602,363

2,3422,3092,4392,5262,3532,3322,3712,3232,2812,3052,322

2,3702,307

Not inlaborforce

62,75262,88862,94462,52363,32464,57864,70065,63865,75866,280

65,80865,61665,61966,22866,49166,27366,50366,50466,71966,88467,156

66,73066,754

Percent2

Laborforce

partici-pationrate

65.365.665.966.566.566.266.466.366.666.6

66.766.966.966.666.566.666.566.666.566.466.3

66.666.6

Employ-ment/pop-

ulationratio

60.761.562.363.062.861.761.561.762.562.9

63.163.263.162.862.862.962.862.862.962.762.6

62.762.9

Unem-ploy-mentrate

7.06.25.55.35.66.87.56.96.15.6

5.45.55.75.65.65.75.65.65.55.65.6

5.85.5

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to findfulltime work, etc.

2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutionai population; andunemployment as percent of civilian labor force.

3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data.

* Data beginning Januajy 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods.Note.—Unadjusted data for 1990-93 revised to incorporate 1990 census-based population

controls, adjusted for the estimated undercount. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning1990. See Employment and Earnings, March 1996 for details.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESIn February, the unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent. (Series revised.)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

10

1992 1996

••UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIEDSOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF lABOft COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

19861987198819891990 r ,.1991 '1992 r

1993 r

19942

1995

1995: Febr

Marr

Apr''Mayr

Juner .,JulyAugr

Septr .... ....OofNovDecr ".:

1996: Janr

Peb

Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)

Mlcivilianworkers

7.06.25.55.35.66.87.56.96.15.65.45.55.75.65.65.75.65.65.55.65.6

5.85.5

By sex and age

Men20 yearsand over

6.15.44.84.55.06.47.16.45.44.84.64.74.95.04.84.84.84.84.54.94.84.94.9

Women20 yearsand over

6.25.44.94.74.95.76.35.95.44.9

4.94.95.14.95.05.04.94.95.04.84.7

5.14.8

Bothsexes16-19years

18.316.915.315.015.518.720.119.017.617.317.116.517.217.316.917.817.617.717.117.818.0

18.216.6

By race

White

6.05.34.74.54.86.16.66.15.34.94.74.84.95.04.94.94.84.94.85.04.9

5.04.9

Blackand

other

13.111.610.410.010.111.112.711.710.59.69.49.49.79.29.79.9

10.010.19.49.09.39.59.1

Black

14.513.011.711.411.412.514.213.011.510.410.310.110.710.010.510.811.011.110.09.6

10.210.610.3

By selected groups

Expe-riencedwageand

salaryworkers

6.65.85.25.05.36.67.26.65.95.4

5.25.35.55.65.45.55.45.55.45.45.4

5.45.3

Marriedmen,

spousepresent

4.43.93.33.03.44.45.14.43.73.33.13.23.33.43.43.43.33.43.23.33.23.33.0

Womenwho

maintainfamilies

9.89.28.18.18.39.3

10.09.78.98.08.37.98.78.28.38.27.28.07.97.76.88.27.5

Full-timeworkers1

6.96.05.35.15.46.87.56.96.15.5

5.35.45.65.55.55.55.55.55.45.55.5

5.75.4

Part-timeworkers *

7.46.96.46.26.47.07.57.26.06.06.05.96.16.16.26.46.05.95.95.95.96.06.2

1 Revised definition; for details, see Employment and Earnings, February 1994.3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods,NOTB.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over.

Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1990. See note, p. 11.


12


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCEPROGRAMSIn February, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 15-26 weeks rose; the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean duration of unemploymentrose to 16.6 weeks and the median duration fell to 8.0 weeks. (Series revised.)

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION * PERCENT DISTRIBUTION *

70

50

30

20

10

0

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

-

LESS THANS WEEKS

/

^ \

-v\ ^ AV >.

_A.x™" vX

Illllllllll1992

yvv-w

••Ax^V ^ 1

5-14WEEKS

vVN«--v

Illllilllll

1993

J A

f \ ^y^'V •-•N^O

-N/\-"'

•

27 WEEKSAND OVERy

'*»V-»X V

15-26WEEKS

umliim1994

v\

Illllllllll199-J

/

k

—

s••

Illltllllll

70

60

50

30

20

10

0

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

/~*^vA

-

—

\ -*'v._,-*

W^V•"— V

Illllllllll1996 1992

.yv^V JOB LOSERS-^

'\ t^^fV

JOB

"*^*" tf .

nmimi,1993

S/yv^

/\ „\ 'REENTRANT!

tEAVERS

__^

--"V *>

-

" "~"*V'<

^r~^S

XNEW ENTRANTS

,,,,,]

1994

Ijlllllllll1995

1

—

^

Illllllllll1996

* SEASONARY ADJUSTED!/8EGiNNfNG JANUARY ! 99*. JOB 1OS6SS AND PERSONS WHO COMPLETED TEMPORARY JOBS.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

198619871988 ...1989199019911992199319943

19951995- Feb'

Mar-"Aprr

May

July'Aufif"Sept'Oct' ;NovDec '

1996: Jan'Feb

Un-employ-

ment(thou-sands)

8,2377,4256,7016,528

••7,047'8,628'9,613'8,9407,9967,404

7,1977,2857,5567,4607,3967,5107,4397,4657,2297,4097,3717,6777,355

Duration of unemployment

Percent distribution

Lessthan

5weeks

41.943.746.048.6

'46.3'40.3'35.1'36.534.136.536.636.035.435.336.535.336.437.537.237.136.436.837.8

5-14weeks

31.029.630.030.3

'32.0'32.4'29.4'28.930.131.630.831.931.831.031.733.831.831.231.832.032.531.930.9

15-26weeks

12.712.712.011.2

'11.7'14.4'15.1'14.5

15.514.615.813.614.416.415.613.915.114.213.714.214.514.815.3

27weeksandover

14.414.012.19.9

'10.0'12.9'20.3'20.120.317.316.918.518.417.316.317.016.717.117.216.716.616.516.0

Number of weeks

Aver-age

(mean)

15.014.513.511.9

'12.0'13.7'17.7'18.018.816.617.117.317.616.816.016.516.316.316.216.316.216.016.6

Median

6.96.55.94.8

'5.3'6.8'8.7'8.39.28.38.28.28.48.97.78.78.48.18.18.08.18.38.0

Rea.

los-ers1

48.948.046.145.7

'48.1'54.4'56.1'54.247.746.946.946.946.347.447.047.046.545.947.546.946.947.648.1

son for unemployment:>ereent distribution

Jobleav-ers

12.313.014.715.7

'14.8'11.6'10.4'10.9

9.911.110.710.910.711.511.311.211.611.710.511.511.911.510.0

Keen-trants

26.226.627.028.2

'27.4'24.8'23.8'24.634.834.134.434.035.133.734.334.334.034.234.433.733.232.533.7

Newen-

trants

12.512.412.210.4'9.8'9.2'9.7

'10.37.67.88.08.27.97.4

• 7.47.67.88.17.77.98.18.58.2

Stateprograms

Insuredunem-ploy-ment

Initialclaims

Insuredunem-

allregular

programs(unadjust-

ed)2

Weekly average, thousands

2,6432,3002,0812,1582,5223,3423,2452,7512,670

'2,574

2,5082,4942,4962,5582,6362,6832,6342,6322,6782,6522,625

2,655

378328310330388447408341340

'357336342352373376373346357365375363374

^371

2,7392,3692,1352,2052,5753,4063,3482,8452,7392,636

3,1732,9492,7212,4762,3982,6352,4612,1972,2922,4212,668

3,499

1 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs.3 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-serv-

icemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFB), Railroad <RE) programs included through 1993. Also in-cludes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplementalcompensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs.

3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods.

NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years of age and over (except for insured unemploy-ment and initial claims).

Seasonally adjusted unemployment data revised beginning 1990. See Note, p. 11,Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment and initial claims data revised historically.Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Ad-

ministration).

13


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagriculfural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 705,000 in February.

MIUIONS OF PERSONS*

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40 -

30

201992

SERVICE-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

GOODS-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

1993

.V.1994 1995

llllll

MllUONS OF PERSONS* JENIARGED SCAIE)

34

1996 1992 1996


iamls of wage and sabtiy workers;' seasonally ai!jnst*xt|

Period

198619871988198919901991199219931994 ...1995 r1995: Peb

MarApr ...MayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDeer ... .

1996- Janr ..Peb?

Totalnonagri-eulturalemploy-

ment

99,344101,958105,210107,895109,419108,256108,604110,730114,034116,607116,123116,302116,310116,248116,547116,575116,838116,932117,000117,212117,357117,169117,874

Goods-producing industries

Total 2

24,53324,67425,12525,25424,90523,74523,23123,35223,91324,22724,32424,37024,33124,22824,24024,15624,16524,15724,15924,13424,17324,11424,267

Con-struc-tion

4,8104,9585,0985,1715,1204,6504,4924,6685,0105,2465,2135,2565,2425,1905,2305,2265,2335,2625,2875,2955,2975,3145,435

Manufacturing

Total

18,94718,99919,31419,39119,07618,40618,10418,07518,30318,40318,52318,52518,50618,45618,42818,35318,35718,32218,30118,27218,30718,23218,258

Durablegoods

11,19511,15411,36311,39411,10910,56910,27710,22110,43110,59510,62210,63310,63210,61110,59710,56910,58710,57210,56510,55310,60710,57910,597

Non-durablegoods

7,7527,8457,9517,9977,9687,8377,8277,8547,8727,8087,9017,8927,8747,8457,8317,7847,7707,7507,7367,7197,7007,6537,661

Service-producing industries

Total

74,81177,28480,08682,64284,51484,51185,37387,37890,12192,38091,79991,93291,97992,02092,30792,41992,67392,77592.84193,07893,18493,05593,607

Trans-porta-

tion andpublic

utilities

5,2475,3625,5145,6255,7935,7625,7215,8296,0066,1926,1566,1756,1846,1776,1926,1956,2176,2066,2176,2406,2316,2306,246

Whole-sale

trade

5,7615,8486,0306,1876,1736,0815.9975,9816,1406,3246,2756,2876,3006,2986,3206,3336,3406,3466,3596,3736,3956,3986,414

Betailtrade

17,88018,42219,02319,47519,60119,28419,35619,77320,43720,84120,79420,76020,76220,74720.79820^85120,83720,89920,89720,98920,98120,92121,087

Finance,insur-ance,

and realestate

6,2736,5336,6306,6686,7096,6466,6026,7576,9336,9496,9296,9386,9246,9256,9306,9386,9476,9576^9776,9917,0017,0037,028

Services

22,95724,11025,50426,90727,93428,33629,052,30,19731,48832,79632.40432,52432,54832,63032,78432,82032,98633,04733,07633,18533,24833,20433,491

Government

Total

16,69317,01017,38617,77918,30418,40218,64518,84119,11819,27919,24119,24819,26119,24319,28319,28219.34619,32019,31519,30019,32819,29919,341

Federal

2,8992,9432,9712,9883,0852,9662,9692,9152,8702,8222,8312,8282,8262,8312,8382,8342,8252,8122,8012,8002,7992,7882,783

1 Includes all full- anil part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishmentswho received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Exehuiesproprietors, self-employed persons, domestic: servants, and iwrsonnei of the Armed Forces. Totalin this table not comparable with estimates of nonagri cultural employment of the civilian laborfor**, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, ami domestic servants;which count persons as employed when they are not at work Ix^aMse of industrial disputes,bad weather, etc., even if they are not, paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample

of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in tin's table arc based on reports fromemploying establishments. In tlse series shown here, persons who work at more than one joban? counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11, wherepersons arc counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the I; bor fort*.

2 Includes mining, not shown separately.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Ijabor Statistics,


AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, ANDPRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES

{For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted |

EARNINGS

Period

1986198719881989 .199019911992199319941995

1995: JailFebMar

May

July

SeptOct

De*1'1996: Jan'

Feb^

Average weekly hours

Totalprivate

nonagri-cnltural '

34.834.834.734.634.534.334.434.534.734.5

34.834.634.634.634.234.434.634.434.534.634.434.333.734.5

Manufacturing

Total

40.741.041.141.040.840.741.041.442.041.5

42.242.142.041.541.441.541.341.541.741.541.541.239.941.6

Overtime

3.43.73.93.83.63.63.84.14.74.4

4.94.84.74.54.44.24.34.34.54.44.44.34.14.5

Average gross hourly earnings

Total privatenonagrieiiltura! '

On-rentdollars

$8.768.989.289.66

10.0110.3210.5710.8311.1311.46

11.2911.3211.3411.4011.3711.4311.5011.4811.5411.5911.5811.6111.6611.65

1982dollars2

$7.817.737.697.647.527.457.417.397.41

'7.41

7.39'7.40'7.397.407.367.397.437.417.44

'7.44'7.437.447.44

Manufac-turing

$9.739.91

10.1910.4810.8311.1811.4611.7412.0612.35

12.2112.2412.2512.2812.2812.3212.4012.4112.4312.4512.4712.4912.6312.58

Average gross weekly earnings

Total privatenonagricultural '

Currentdollars

$304.85312.50322.02334.24345.35353.98363.61373.64386.21395.37

392.89391.67392.36394.44388.85393.19397.90394.91398.13401.01398.35398.22392.94401.93

1982dollars2

$271.94269.16266.79264.22259.47255.40254.99254.87256.96

'255.74

257.30'255.99'255.61'256.13251.85

'254.16257.21

'254.78256.53

'257.55'255.68255.11250.60

Current dollars

Manufac-turing

$396.01406.31418.81429.68441.86455.03469.86486.04506.52512.53

515.26515.30514.50509.62508.39511.28512.12515.02518.33516.68517.51514.59503.94523.33

Construc-tion

$466.75480.44495.73513.17526.01533.40537.70553.63572.61583.55

579.28575.86578.12566.61563.62582.86590.02583.98588.95593.49588.60577.95573.30592.86

Ifetailtrade

$176.08178.70183.62188.72194.40198.48205.06209.95216.46221.76

220.11218.88219.17222.03219.56220.90223.11222.14223.49224.26224.06224.43221.65226.98

Percent change froma year earlier, txrtal

private non-agrieultural *

Currentdollars

1.92.53.03.83.32.52.72.83.42.4

2.73.32.62.51.12.43.02.52.52.02.32.2

.32.6

1982dollars

0.3-1.0-.9

-1.0-1.8-1.6-.2-.0

.8'-.5

-.2.3

-.4-.7

-2.1-.6

.2-.0

.0-.6-.1-.3

-2.4

1 AJso im'Judes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wag** earners and

denca) workers (CH-W) (on a 1982=100 base). Seasonally adjusted CPI-W data revised be-ginning 1991.

3 Based on seasonally unadjusted data.

SOUK*: I>epartment of Latxtr, Bureau of La(x>r Statistics.

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY

Period

1986- Dee1987. Dec1988- Dec1989- Dec1990- Dee .1991- Dee . .. .1992- Dee ...1993: Dee1994- Dee .1995. Dec

1993- Mar

Sept ...Dec

1994- Mar

Sept ....Dec

1995- Mar

SeptDec

Index (June 1989 = 100)

Totalcompensa-

tion

Wafj^s andsalaries Benefits'

Percent change from

3 months earlier

Totalcompensa-

tion

Wages andsalaries Itenefite"

12 months earlier

Totalcompensa-

tion

Wages andsalaries Henefits '

Not seasonally actuated

90.193.197.6

102.3107.0111.7115.6119.8123.5126.9

91.194.198.0

102.0106.1110.0112.9116.4119.7123.1

87.590596.7

102.6109.4116.2122.2128.3133.0136.6

Seasonally adjusted

116.9117.9118.9119.9120.8121.8122.8123.6124.3125.2125.9127.0

113.9114.6115.6116.4117.3118.3119.1119.8120.6121.5122.3123.1

124.8126.5127.7129.1130.2131.5132.8133.8134.0134.7135.4137.2

1.0.9.8.8.8.8.8.7.6.7.6.9

0.8.6.9.7.8.9.7.6.7.7.7.7

1.51.4.9

1.1.9

1.01.0.8.1.5.5

1.3

3,23.34.84.84.64.43.53.63.12.8

3.23.34.14.14.03.72.63.12.82.8

3.43.46.96.16.66.25.25.03.72.7

Not seasonally adjusted

3.53.63.73.63.33.43.33.12.92.82.62.8

2.72.73.13.12.93.12.92.82.92.92.82.8

5.65.85.45.04.43.94.03.72.92.62.12,7

1 Employer costs for employee benefits.NOTK.—The employment cost index is a measure of the ebanpe in Hie cost of labor, free

from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and Industries.

Data exclude farm and hosisehold workers.

Source; Department of Labor, Bureau of Ijalx>r Statistics.

15


PRODUCTIVITY AND DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR

Period

198619871988198919901991 . ..1992199319941995 f

1992- IIIinIV

1993: Ininiv

1994- IIIinIV

1995: Inin'WP

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995P

1992: IHinI V . . . .

1993- 1IIinIV

1994: III .mIV . .

1995- Inm r

IV?

Output per hour ofall peraons

Businesssector

NonfariQbusinesssector

Output"

Businesssector

Nonfarmboamesssector

Hour

Businesssector

s of allions2

Nonfarmbusinesssector

Compensation perhour3

Businesssector

NonfariBbusinesssector

Real compensationper hour*

Businesssector


Unit laborcosts

Businesssector


Implicit pricedeflator5

Businesssector


Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted

94.294.194.695.496.296.7

100.0100.2101.0101.9

99.399.999.7

101.1

100.299.8

100.1100.8

100.3100.7101.4101.5

101.1101.9102.3102.3

94.994.795.395.896.396.9

100.0100.2100.7101.8

99.3100.099.6

101.1100.199.7

100.2100.6

100.0100.4101.1101.3

101.0101.8102.2102.1

88.691.194.697.898.796.9

100.0102.6106.9109.6

98.899.699.8

101.7

101.4102.0102.8104.3

104.8106.5107.6108.7

108.8108.9110.1110.5

88.791.495.198.198.897.1

100.0102.9106.9109.8

98.899.699.8

101.8

101.6102.2103.2104.6

104.8106.6107.7108.8

109.0109.1110.4110.7

94.096.8

100.0102.5102.6100.3100.0102.4105.9107.6

99.599.7

100.1100.6

101.3102.2102.6103.5

104.5105.8106.2107.1

107.6106.9107.7108.0

93.596.599.8

102.4102.7100.2100.0102.7106.2107.9

99.699.6

100.1100.7

101.5102.5103.0103.9

104.8106.1106.5107.4

107.9107.2108.0108.4

76.979.983.585.890.895.1

100.0102.6104.8108.5

98.699.5

100.7101.2

101.6102.5103.0103.3

104.2104.5104.9105.7

106.6108.0109.2110.1

77.380.283.685.890.695.1

100.0102.3104.5108.2

98.599.6

100.7101.2

101.4102.1102.6102.9

103.7104.3104.6105.4

106.4107.8108.9109.7

98.498.699.097.197.497.9

100.099.699.299.9

99.799.8

100.399.9

99.699.799.899.2

99.699.398.8

'98.9

'99.199.6

100.1100.4

98.999.099.297.197.397.9

100.099.398.999.6

r99.799.9

100.299.9

99.499.399.498.9

'99.2'99.1'98.498.7

98.9'99.499.9

100.1

81.684.988.289.994.398.3

100.0102.4103.8106.5

99.399.6

101.0100.1

101.4102.6102.9102.5

103.8103.9103.5104.1

105.4106.0106.8107.6

81.484.787.889.694.198.1

100.0102.1103.8106.3

99.399.6

101.0100.1

101.3102.4102.4102.3

103.7103.8103.4104.1

105.3105.9106.6107.5

81.683.886.890.594.097.7

100.0102.5104.8107.1

99.399.7

100.1100.9101.7102.3102.7103.3

103.9104.4105.1105.6

106.3106.9107.4107.7

Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates

2.6-|

.5

.8

.8

.53.4

.2

.7

.9

8.12.5-.75.6

-3.7-1.3

1.32.7

-1.91.42.8

.7

-1.63.01.60

2.7O

!e.5.5.7

3.2.2.5

1.1

7.32.8

-1.26.1

„, q QG.I71 rf

2!l1.6

-2.51.92.6

.9

-1.13.01.7-.5

3.22.93.83.4.9

-1.83.22.64.22.5

6.23.2

.87.9

-1.12.23.06.3

1.86.74.14.0

.6

.34.41.2

3.43.04.13.2.7

-1.83.02.94.02.7

5.63.1

.78.4

-.92.44.15.3

.96.84.24.2

.8

.54.71.1

0.63.03.32.5.1

-2.3q

2.43.41.6

-1.7.7

1.62.2

2.63.61.73.5

3.75.31.33.3

2.2-2.5

2.81.2

0.73.23.52.6.2

-2.4-.22.73.41.6

-1.5.3

2.02.2

3.14.22.03.6

3.54.81.63.3

1.9-2.4

2.91.6

5.23.94.52.85.84.85.22.62.23.5

7.83.74.82.1

1.63.42.21.1

3.41.51.52.9

3.45.64.33.3

5.23.74.32.75.54.95.22.32.23.6

7.74.24.42.1

1.02.72.01.1

3.32.11.23.3

3.75.44.33.0

3.3.2.4

-1.9.4.5

2.1-.4

^.6r5.0

•".3'1.8

'-1.4

'-1.3'.4'.3

'-2.0

'1.4-1.0

'-2.2.7

'.52.12.3.9

3.3.1.1

-2.1.1.7

2.1-.7-.4

.7

'4.9'.9

'1.4'-1.4

'-1.9'-.2

'.1'-2.0

'1.2-.4

r-2.51.0r.S2.02.2

.6

2.64.04.01.94.94.21.72.41.42.5

-.31.25.6

-3.3

5.44.8

.9-1.6

5.4.1

-1.32.3

5.02.52.73.3

2.54.03.72.15.04.31.92.11.62.5

.41.45.7

-3.7

5.14.5-.1-.5

5.9.2

-1.42.4

4.92.32.53.5

2.22.73.54.24.03.92.42.52.22.2

2.81.91.53.0

3.42.51.42.4

2.41.82.62.0

2.82.12.1.9

81.483.586.490.093.897.6

100.0102.5104.9107.2

99.299.8

100.1100.9

101.8102.4102.7103.3

103.9104.5105.3105.7

106.5107.0107.5107.7

2.22.63.44.24.24.12.42.52.32.2

3.02.11.43.2

3.82.11.22.6

2.52.22.91.8

2.91.91.8

.91 Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector,2 Hoars of ai! persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family

workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.3 Wages and salaries of employees phis employers' contributions for social insurance and pri-

vate benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments forthe self-employed.

4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U).

s Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index.NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore

may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.Source; Department of Labor, Bureau of Ijabor Statistics.

16


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production and capacity utilization fell in January.

NX!150140130

120

110

100

ISO140

130

120

110

100

150140130

120

110

100

90

(,1907. 100- IfOnOSCAlfl

TOWi. WDUSTBAl PRODUCTION

-r— — ~"T"^~ "~1

; _ --L"—- -— 1

MANUFAOURWG

DUMBIE ~

•w^^i ™•.n* _L'*7~~

NONDURMlilillitiiiti tiiiiltiiti JHIlIiHIl

t—^S"*}

in till tin iimlimi

UlUreANDMMNQ

mures 1 —\ »'v'l

1 til 1 1 1 1 1 !_! ( 1 1 1 1 1 1 » 111 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1992 1993 1994

^* -1995

,,,,,l,,,,,19M

MDG170140150

140

130

120

100

90

80

40

88M

8482

8078

(, 1987. 100- IRADOSCAtf)

HNAl PRODUCTSBUSINESS .

\ - —

^\

^^

---'"'"

™*^.^

J ' .U 1 i Jl J Li

"*/

'

. -

CONSUMESGOODS

*>OEFB4SE "•*—

ANDSfACEEQUrM&ff

If mini f l n i nun M

f ^^

.-„,-—

*™""x,\

111 1 M 1 1 1 IIin iliii in

pEncmr-CAfi OTYimUZAnONRATtaOX^r>CX^TKYl

jj.l*+s**s'~T™"***~l~'

mi iliiiimiminn i

1992 I 1993

S~^

lltllitllll

1994

r^^I

n 1 1 il t in mi intiim

1995 1 1996

301*2; KWOOfOOrtHOB Of T»««IW.K««Vf5TOai

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted)

Period

1986198719881989 .199019911992199319941995/>

1995- JanFeb ... .

MayJune . ..July

Sept . ..OctNOY . . .. ...DecP

1996- Jan?

Totalindustrialproduction

Index,1987=100

95.3100.0104.4106.0106.0104.2107.7111.5118.1121.9

121.8121.7121.9121.4121.3121.4121.5122.7122.8122.2122.4122.6

121.9

Percentchange

from yearearlier

0.94.94.41.5.0

-1.83.43.55.93.2

6.35.44.73.93.22.82.63.23.11.91.6.9

.1

Industry production indexes, 1987 — 100

Manufaetu ring

Total

94.3100.0104.7106.4106.1103.8108.2112.3119.7123.9

124.1123.9124.0123.5123.2123.3123.3124.2124.9124.4124.5124.7

124.0

Durable

93.9100.0106.6108.6107.4104.1109.3115.6125.8132.5

131.8132.1132.2131.6131.1131.5131.5133.2134.4133.5134.3134.8

134.2

Nondurable

94.9100.0102.3103.7104.4103.4106.7108.6113.0114.3

115.6114.8115.1114.6114.4114.3114.3114.3114.4114.3113.8113.5

112.6

Mining

101.0100.0101.3100.0102.0100.298.998.0

100,399.9

100.6100.8100.3100.6100.5101.0100.7100.0100.098.298.198.0

97.7

Utilities

96.3100.0105.0108.7109.9112.3111.9116.3117.9121.7

117.3118.5119.2118.8122.1121.0122.7128.8122.7121.6123.3124.1

123.0

Capacity utilizationrate, percent !

Totalindustry

79.281.583.783.782.179.280.381.483.983.7

85.184.784.684.083.783.583.383.883.682.982.882.7

81.9

Manufac-turing

79.181.683.683.281.378.079.580.683.382.9

84.684.284.083.382.882.682.382.682.882.182.081.8

81.01 Output as pureent of capacity. Source; Hoard of Governors of the Filers! Ifcserve System.

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1987=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1986 . .19871988198919901991 ....1992199319941995/>

1995- JanFebMar

May

July

SeptOct

Deep ,

1996- Jail*" ,

Products

Final products

Total

95.7100.0104.8106.8107.0105.4108.7112.7118.3121.3

121.3121.1121.5120.9120.6121.1121.2122.4122.6121.3121.7121.9

121.2

Consumer goods

Total

96.8100.0102.9104.0103.4103.0106.0109.5113.7115.0

115.5114.9115.3114.4114.1114.8114.6115.9116.0114.9115.5115.3

113.6

Dur-able

goods

94.5100.0104.6106.6102.396.0

103.0113.3124.2124.2

127.1127.3126.0124.9121.6122.3121.4124.0125.8123.4124.9126.4

121.4

Nondur-able

goods

97.6100.0102.4103.2103.8105.0106.9108.6111.2112.8

112.7111.9112.7111.8112.4113.1113.0113.9113.7112.9113.3112.6

111.8

Equipment

Total'

94.5100.0107.6110.9112.1108.8112.5117.5125.3131.4

130.4131.0131.4131.3130.8131.2131.6132.9133.1131.5131.3132.4

133.4

Busi-ness

93.1100.0110.7115.5116.9115.9123.4131.8144.9155.7

153.2154.3155.1155.0154.3155.1155.7157.5158.2156.5156.8158.5

160.0

De-fenseand

spaceequip-ment

96.0100.099.7

100.198.890.884.879.371.965.9

68.968.267.867.166.866.866.566.165.264.462.862.1

61.6

Intermediate products

Total

91.9100.0101.8102.0101.296.899.3

101.8107.3109.0

109.5109.5109.2108.2108.2108.2108.5109.4109.5109.2109.4110.0

109.1

Con-struc-tionsup-plies

93.8100.0101.5100.598.291.695.298.4

106.2108.2

109.7109.5109.2108.0106.6107.2107.3107.0108.4108.3109.2110.6

109.1

Busi-nesssup-plies

90.7100.0102.0103.0103.2100.2102.0104.1108.2109.6

109.5109.6109.3108.5109.4109.1109.5111.0110.3109.9109.7109.8

109.2

Materials

Total

95.9100.0105.0106.7106.8105.5109.7113.8122.0127.4

127.1127.1127.2127.0127.2126.8126.8128.1128.1128.1128.3128.2

127.6

Energy

99.5100.0102.2103.1104.2104.4103.7103.5105.3106.5

106.2106.4106.4106.6107.2107.2107.5108.5105.8105.5105.4105.7

105.01 Includes oil and gas welt drilling and manufartimHl homes, not shown separately.

[1087=100; montMy data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995P

1995- JanFebMar

July

SeptOet

Dec''

1996- Jan?

Durable manufactures

Primary metals

Total

93.7100.0108.7107.2106.598.6

101.9107.7116.4119.2

121.5120.8121.3120.2119.5117.5118.3115.4121.0115.7121.1119.3

121.6

Ironandsteel

90.8100.0112.7111.2111.5100.5104.7111.9119.3122.4

125.5124.9125.8123.5123.0119.2119.3117.7127.0115.1126.5122.8

128.0

Fabri-cated

prod-ucts

93.8100.0104.2102.899.594.599.0

103.1110.5113.9

114.3115.0114.3112.3113.7113.7112.4H4.3115.1114.0114.5115.1

113.8

Indus-trial

macliin-ery andequip-ment

90.3100.0113.0117.3117.6114.7124.0138.1157.7177.7

171.4171.8172.4174.3174.6174.4176.0179.5181.3183.8186.21S9.3

190.2

Elec-trical

machin-ery

94.3100.0108.5111.0111.4113,9123.5134.1154.3174.9

166.7167.7169.4169.6171.1173.0175.7178.7180.8182.4183.6182.8

18L3

Transportationequipment

Total

96.9100.0105.2109.6107.0101.1104.8109.2115.3113.4

117.8118.5118.0115.7113.2113.4111.6114.1114.1109.3108.6110.0

108.4

Motorvehicles

andparts

98.5100.0105.7106.9101.094.4

107.4122.9141.2141.9

147.3148.4147.6143.0138.8139.7136.7142.1143.3139.7140.7141.2

135.5

Lum-

andprod-ucts

95.1100.0100.1

99.497.190.295.297.1

104.0104.5

107.1105.0103.9103.9101.7103.0103.7103.7106.2105.7105.6106.4

104.5

Nondurable manufactures

Ap-parelprod-ucts

96.3100.098.195.092.292.795.097.1

100.195.8

100.699.899.397.497.595.594.894.594.593.392.592.5

90.3

Print-ingandpub-

lishing

90.6100.0100.9101.1100.897.098.198.8

100.199.4

100.1100.399.399.299.098.699.0

100.599.898.999.498.9

98.2

Chemi-calsand

prod-ucts

94.6100.0106.0109.2111.8110.5114.4115.4121.3124.9

126.2124.7125.0123.5124.0124.4124.0124.4125.3126.7125.7125.4

124.7

Foods

97.4100.0101.5102.5103.7105.3106.9109.5113.2115.3

115.9114.2115.0115.1115.9116.1115.3115.5115.5115.4115.2114.9

114.7

Source: Uoun! of Governors of the Federal Ifeserve System.


NEW CONSTRUCTION[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995' , .. . .

1995- JanPebMar

May

July

SeptOctNov .Dec'

1996- Jan*

Total newconstructionexpenditures

Private

Total

Residential

Total1 New housingunite

and Indus*trial3

Other

andStateandlocal

Billions of dollars

407.7419.4432.3443.7442.2403.443S.O464.5506.9527.0

323.1328.7337.5345.5334.7293.3315.7339.2376.6384.2

187.1194.7198.1196.6182.9157.8187.9210.5238.9236.2

133.2139.9138.9139.2128.0110.6129.6144.1167.9162.3

84.484.088.094.396.477.065.866.473.885.7

51.650,151.554.655.458.462.162.363.962.2

84.690.694.798.2

107.5110.1119.3125.3130.3142.8

Annual ra&s

521.1521.4523.5522.1514.5518.9528.7528.4535.1537.6533.4536.0

537.6

384.8383.7383.3382.2376.1377.5384.3385.7387.0390.1388.2390.2

388.6

241.9240.2237.9234.1231.3228.4231.0234.0237.6238.3240.3241.8

240.5

168.6167.2163.9159.8156.4153.2158.0161.3164.3165.4165.9166.1

164.9

81.382.784.785.081.985.988.087.285.688.888.290.3

90.6

61.560.760.763.162.963.265.364.563.863.059.758,1

57.5

136.2137.8140.2139.9138.4141.4144.4142.7148.1147.5145.3145.7

149.0

Construction contracts3

Total valueindex

(1987=100)

96100101105958997

105114115

113114116108119122118123119116114107

Commercialand industrial

floor space(millions ofsquare feet)

1,0161,019

973961783577556589744842

Annual rates

786883778632727800713826828731851784

1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately,2 Includes hotels and motels.SF.W. Bodge series.

Sowrees: Department of Commerce (Bareaa of the Census) snd McGraw-Hill InformationSystems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995?

1995- Jan . . .PebMar

May

July

SeptGetNovDec*"

1996- Jan*"

New private housing units

Units started, by type of structure

Tota!

1,805.41.620.51,488.11,376.11,192.71,013.91,199.71,287.61,457.01,350.5

1 unit

1,179.41,146.41,081.31,003.3

894.8840.4

1,029.91,125.71,198.41,073.2

2-4 units

84.065.358.855.237.535.630.729.435.033.8

5 or moreunits

542.0408.7348.0317.6260.4137.9139.0132.6223.5243.5

Unitsauthorized

1,769.41,534.81,455.61,338.41,110.8

948.81,094.91,199.1

3 1,371.61,333.0

Unitscompleted

1,756.41,668.81,529,81,422.81,308.01,090,81,157.51,192.71,346.91,311.3

New private homes

Homessold

750671676650534509610666670684

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

1,3701,3221,2411,2781,3001,3011,4501,4011,4011,3511,4581,385

1,446

1,0621,051

9921,0171,0051,0361,1251,1351,1301,1091,1291,116

1,132

384435253635392839313230

31

270227214236259230286238232211297239

283

1,2931,2821,2351,2431,2431,2751,3551,3681,4051,3841,4481,478

'1,372

'1,4151,302

'1,442'1,331'1,3241,286

'1,332'1,247r 1,267'1,320'1,3601,213

1,358

'627'577'614'608667

'724'782'707'684'673'662665

693

Homes forsale at endof period l

357366368365321284265293

'337378

342'346'346'349347347344349

'350'360'370378

381

Vacancy ratefor rental

housing units(percent)2

7.37.77.7

27.47.27.47.4

2 7,37.4

7.4

7.7

7.7

7.7

1 Seasonally adjusted.2 Revised series beginning 1989 and 1994; not comparable with earlier data, except 1993

data have been revised to be comparable with new series beginning in 1994.Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter.3The 1994 total based on 17,000 permit-issuing piaees is 1,333,7 thousand units.

NOTE. —Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 piaees. For other data shown, unitsauthorized are for 17,000 places.

Seasonally adjusted housing completions and homes sold and for sale revised beginning 1993.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and TradeIn December, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.0 percent and Inventories fell $2.4 billion. According to advancedata, retail sales fell 0.3 percent in January following a rise of 0.6 percent in December.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS" (RATIO SCALE)1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

-n,—- — -~i

„„-".--'

n i nlim i1992

^ \MANUFACTURING ANDTRADE INVENTORIES

_ -' 1

— — """1 \ 1MANUFAOURINGAND TRADE SALES

1993

I

1994 1995 1996

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

400

1.301992

* SEASQNAUY ADJUSTS)SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1996


Period

1986 . ..198719881989199019911992199319941995C1994- Dec'1995: Jaii'

FebMar

MayJuneJuly

SeptGet

Dec**1996- Jan? . .

Manufacturing andtrade '

Sales2 Inven-tories'*

Wholesale

Sales* Inven-tories3

Retail

Sales *

TotalDurablegoodsstores

Nondurablegoodsstores

Inventories :1

TotalDnrablegoodsstores

Nondurablegoodsstores

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted

430,419457,735496,079523,065542,682538,485561,293593,076639,770

'682,256670,067673,634675,480674,797672,912678,444682,958675,776687,610689,804687,650692,867

'699,799695,225

662,753709,814765,270811,154834,391829,685838,895860,979

'918,319978,299918,319928,799936,091942,743952,235956,516960,157964,894968,658973,482980,267980,701978,299

114,960122,968134,521143,760149,506148,306154,150161,681172,521

'186,676182,257182,641185,056183,207184,597186,244187,472186,232187,203188,303188,517190,709

'194,198192,997

153,574163,903178,801187,009195,550200,062207,663215,878

'235,701255,641235,701238,399240,365243,462246,867247,702249,813253,060253,017254,063256,134255,449

'255,641257,548

120,803128,442138,017146,581153,718154,661162,632172,875186,414

'195,660191,757193,203191,868193,153193,022195,107196,774196,070197,386197^221196,735198,432

'199,694199,062

45,05747,98952,43054,76355,73654,16558,63464,79573,369

'78,41476,60876,70476,13876,97876,54977,53378,83578,44679,94079,10379,45880,524

'81,10880,285

75,74680,45385,58791,81897,981

100,497103,999108,080113,045

'117,246115,149116,499115,730116,175116,473117,574117,939117,624117,446118,118117,277117,908

'118,586118,777

186,510207,836219,047237,234239,773243,275251,994267,676

'290,808304,131290,808294,296296,000297,200299,690300,525300,333299,411302,495303,242306,698307,666304,131

89,983105,481112,453121,347121,105119,039122,948133,709

'149,815160,388149,815152,754153,826155,530157,958157,842157,109156,320158,276159,205161,745162,588160,388

96,527102,355106,594115,887118,668124,236129,046133,967

'140,993143,743140,993141,542142,174141,670141,732142,683143,224143,091144,219144,037144,953145,078143,743

Inventory-salesratio 4

Manufac-turingand

trade '

1.551.501.491.521.521.541.491.441.391.411.371.381.391.401.421.411.411.431.411.411.431.421.40

Retail

1.561.551.541.581.551.541.521.511.501.541.521.521.541.541.551.541.531.531.531.541.561.551.52

1 See page 21 for manufacturing.a Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are sea-

sonally adjusted totals for month.

''Seasonally adjusted, end of period.4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.Somw: Department of Commerce, Hureati of the Census.


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERSin January, manufacturers' shipments fell, while inventories and orders rose.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

SHIPMENTS TOTAL

\___j — ""

.-

n i 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1

r~~ **^~

DL

.-••*. \s*

NONl

1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1

IRABLEGOOC

*'*"'

j'~*

HJRABLEGOC

i1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

• — — *y

S

OS

1 Illlllllll imiliim

BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

- NEW ORDERS

1992

DURABLE GOODS

NONDURABLE GOODS

1993 1994 1995

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

480440400360

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

INVENIORIES

"""""*

I M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

KITil

1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1

*

TOTAL

f \ 1IRABLEGOOC

....NDURABLEGC

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

r-*---~

•y^rse „,

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1996

1.40 -

1.20

1992 1996


Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995 '1995- Jan

FebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptGetNovDeer . ..

1996- Jan*>

Manufacturers' shipments '

Total Durablegoods

Nondurablegoods

Manufacturers' inventories2

Total Durablegoods

Nondurablegoods

Manufacturers' new orders '

Total

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, excep

194,657206,326223,541232,724239,459235,518244,511258,520280,835299,920297,790298,556298,437295,293297,093298,712293,474303,021304,280302,398

'303,726305,907303,166

103,238108,128117,993121,703122,387119,151125,553135,981151,060162,053161,079161,206161,571157,970159,612160,828155,919164,196165,939164,062

'164,924165,946162,965

91,41998,198

105,549111,022117,072116,367118,958122,539129,775137,867136,711137,350136,866137,323137,481137,884137,555138,825138,341138,336138,802139,961140,201

322,669338,075367,422386,911399,068386,348379,238377,425391,810418,527396,104399,726402,081405,678408,289410,011412,423413,146416,177417,435417,586418,527421,504

212,006220,776241,402256,065259,988249,117237,717236,303247,644263,916250,251252,124253,237255,334256,787257,442259,532260,091261,706263,305263,517263,916266,270

110,663117,299126,020130,846139,080137,231141,521141,122144,166154,611145,853147,602148,844150,344151,502152,569152,891153,055154,471154,130154,069154,611155,234

195,204209,389227,026235,932240,646234,354241,545255,701281,953300,719301,724300,804299,625293,069297,046296,754293,863301,903306,123304,370

'304,146309,467311,052

Durable goods

Total

>t as noted

103,647110,809121,445124,933123,556117,878122,614133,273151,878163,054164,507163,338163,042155,553159,502159,031156,130164,082168,951166,490

'165,165170,234170,636

Capitalgoods

industries,nondefense

23,98326,09530,72932,72532,25429,46829,65331,88937,53043,39841,78542,05542,62840,07243,11542,96440,23341,67646,94143,75546,06748,70048,469

Nondurablegoods

91,55798,579

105,581110,999117,090116,476118,932122,428130,074137,665137,217137,466136,583137,516137,544137,723137,733137,821137,172137,880138,981139,233140,416

Manufac-turers'unfilledorders2

393,412430,288471,951510,459524,846511,122475,304441,947456,838467,045460,772463,020464,208461,984461,937459,979460,368459,250461,093463,065463,485467,045474,931

Manufac-turers'inven-tory —

shipmentsratio3

1.681.591.581.641.651.671.571.471.371.371.331.341.351.371.371.371.411.361.371.381.371.371.39

1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are sea-sonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales.

2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period.

3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

01


PRICESPRODUCER PRICESIn January, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.3 percent. Prices of finished consumer foodsfell 0.2 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.6 percent. Capital equipment prices fell 0.1percent. (Series revised.)

INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)

150

CONSUMER GOODSEXCLUDING FOODS

110

100

110

100

1988

SOURCE: DEPARTMeNt Of LABOR COUNC11 OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted!

1986 . .198719881989199019911992199319941995 *•1995: Jan'

Feb'Marr

Aprr

MayJvmer

JulyAugr

SepfOcfNovDec'

1996: Jan

Finished goods

TntaliOIdl

finishedgoods

103.2105.4108.0113.6119.2121.7123.2124.7125.5127.9127.0127.2127.3127.6127.9127.7127.7127.8128.2128.2128.7129.5129.9

G nu011-

sumer

107.3109.5112.6118.7124.4124.1123.3125.7126.8129.0128.1128.2128.2128.5127.8127.4128.5128.6130.1129.9131.3131.5131.2

Finished goods excluding consumer foods

TvAta]lotai

101.9104.0106.5111.8117.4120.9123.1124.4125.1127.5126.6126.8126.9127.3127.8127.6127.4127.4127.6127.6127.9128.9129.4

Consumer goods

Total

98.5100.7103.1108.9115.3118.7120.8121.7121.6123.9123.1123.3123.5123.8124.5124.2123.8123.8123.9123.8124.0125.4126.1

Durable

108.9111.5113.8117.6120.4123.9125.7128.0130.9132.6132.0132.2132.1132.3132.3132.2132.4132.5132.6133.0133.8134.1133.6

Nondurable

93.394.997.3

103.8111.5115.0117.3117.6116.2118.8117.9118.1118.4118.8119.7119.4118.7118.6118.7118.5118.4120.2121.5

CapitaleCjUip*ment

109.7111.7114.3118.8122.9126.7129.1131.4134.1136.7135.5135.8135.9136.2136.4136.5136.7136.9137.1137.2137.8138.0137.9

Totalfinished

consumergoods

101.4103.6106.2112.1118.2120.5121.7123.0123.3125.6124.7124.9125.0125.4125.6125.3125.4125.4125.8125.8126.3127.3127.8

Intermediate materials

Total

99.1101.5107.1112.0114.5114.4114.7116.2118.5124.9122.9123.8124.3125.0125.3125.4125.5125.6125.4125.3125.3125.5125.6

and

96.299.2

109.5113.8113.3111.1110.7112.7114.8114.8112.1111.8112.3111.6110.6111.7113.4114.6115.7119.0121.7123.2123.5

Other

99.3101.7106.9111.9114.5114.6114.9116.4118.7125.5123.5124.4124.9125.7126.1126.1126.1126.1125.9125.6125.5125.6125.7

Crude materials

Total

87.793.796.0

103.1108.9101.2100.4102.4101.8102.6101.4102.0101.2103.0102.2103.1102.4101.0102.9102.9104.4104.8107.0

Food-stutisand

stuffs

93.296.2

106.1111.2113.1105.5105.1108.4106.5105.8101.7102.7100.8100.7

98.6101.8105.6106.0109.7112.0115.3114.9114.4

Other

81.687.985.593.4

101.594.693.594.794.896.697.297.697.5

100.4100.6

99.996.593.994.693.293.594.498.3

1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and foods.

NoTK.—Beginning 1996, indexes are based on updated value weights.

79.

Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1991 to reflect ujKlated seasonal adjustmentfactors.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Ijabor Statistics.


CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERSIn January, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted (it rose 0.6percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 2.7 percent above its year-earlier level.

INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE)

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

SEASONAUYAUUSIED

INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE]

1180

CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

1001996

SH NOTE ON IU1£ BBOWSOURCE DeWXM&tt Of UBOR COUNO. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19861987 -198819891990199119921993 .. .199419951995: Jan'

Feb'Mar'Apr'May

Julv'

Sept'Oct'Novr

Dec' -.

1996: Jan

All items1

Notseason-

allyadjust-

ed(NSA)

100.0109.6113.6118.3124.0130.7136.2140.3144.5148.2152.4

150.3150.9151.4151.9152.2152.5152.5152.9153.2153.7153.6153.5

154.4

Season-ally

adjust-ed

150.6150.9151.3151.8152.2152.6152.7153.0153.2153.7153.8154.1

154.7

Food

15.8109.0113.5118.2125.1132.4136.3137.9140.9144.3148.4

146.8147.1147.2148.0148.3148.5148.7149.0149.5150.0150.0150.2

150.3

Housing

Total1

41.3110.9114.2118.5123.0128.5133.6137.5141.2144.8148.5

146.5146.8147.1147.5147.8148.1148.5148.9149.1149.6149.9150.3

150.8

Shelter

Total

28.3115.8121.3127.1132.8140.0146.3151.2155.7160.5165.7

162.8163.2163.8164.3164.8165.3165.8166.0166.5167.1167.5167.9

168.6

Rent-ers'costs(Dec.

1982=100)

8.0121.9128.1133.6138.9146.7155.6160.9165.0169.4174.3

170.7171.3172.0172.6173.1173.4174.0174.0174.7175.2175.3175.5

176.7

Home-own-ers'costs(Dec.

1982=100)

20 .1119.4124.8131.1137.3144.6150.2155.3160.2165.5171.0

168.3168.7169.2169.7170.3170.8171.3171.7172.2172.8173.4173.9

174.3

Main-te-

nanceandre-

pairs(NSA)

0.2107.9111.8114.7118.0122.2126.3128.6130.6130.8135.0

133.1133.8134.2134.2134.6135.0135.1135.4135.4136.3136.2136.6

136.3

Fueland

otherutili-ties

7.0104.1103.0104.4107.8111.6115.3117.8121.3122.8123.7

123.2123.2123.1123.4123.0123.5123.6124.2123.4124.1124.2124.4

125.0

Ap-parelandup-keep

5.5105.9110.6115.4118.6124.1128.7131.9133.7133.4132.0

132.5131.8132.3132.1131.9131.4131.8132.0131.7132.1132.1132.2

133.1

Transportation

Total1

17.0102.3105.4108.7114.1120.5123.8126.5130.4134.3139.1

137.4137.8138.5139.3140.2140.8140.0139.5139.4139.5138.9139.0

140.0

Newcars

4.0110.6114.6116.9119.2121.0125.3128.4131.5136.0139.0

137.9138.1138.2138.8138.9139.2139.1139.2139.6139.6139.8139.8

140.0

Motorfuel

2.977.180.280.988.5

101.299.499.098.098.5

100.0

101.3100.8100.6101.0103.5103.7101.399.397.997.495.497.5

101.2

Medi-calcare

7.4122.0130.1138.6149.3162.8177.0190.1201.4211.0220.5

216.9217.5218.2218.9219.6220.3221.0221.8222.6223.1223.8224.6

225.4

En-ergy2

6.788.288.689.394.3

102.1102.5103.0104.2104.6105.2

105.4105.2105.0105.4106.1106.5105.4105.0103.6103.9103.0104.1

106.1

Allitemslessfoodanden-ergy

77.5113.5118.2123.4129.0135.5142.1147.3152.2156.5161.2

159.1159.5160.1160.6160.9161.3161.7162.0162.4162.9163.1163.3

163.8

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,

etc. excluded beginning 1983.3 Relative importance, December 1995.

NOTE.—Data incorporate a rental equivalence measure for horaeownership costs (beginning1983).

Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1991 to reflect updated seasonal adjustment fac-tors.



CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995?

1995- Jan'Feb'Mar'Aprr

May'

JulyAng'Sept'Oct'NovDec'

1996- Jan

Change from preceding period

Totalfinishedgoods

Consumer goods

Poods Excludingfoods

Capitalequip-ment

Change, Dee. to Dec., NSA

-2.32.24.04.95.7-.11.6.2

1.72.2

2.8-.25.75.22.6

-1.51.62.41.11.9

-6.64.13.15.38.7- 71.6

-1.42.02.2

2.11.33.63.83.42.51.71.82.02.2

Change, month to month

0.2.2.1.2.2

__ 20.1.3

0.4.6

.3

-0.7.1

0.2

-.5-.3

.9

.11.2-.21.1

.2

-.2

0.5.2.2.2.6

-.2-.30

.1-.1

.21.1

.6

0.4.2.1.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.4.1

1

Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate

Totalfinishedgoods

5.23.21.61.92.21.3.3

-.31.61.62.84.1

5.4

Consumer goods

Poods

6.23.2

-2.51.3

-1.2-2.5

02.58.84.48.74.4

4.1

Excludingfoods

5.42.63.32.34.02.30

-2.2-1.0

0.6

4.9

7.6

Capitalequip-ment

3.63.92.72.11.81.81.51.51.81.52.72.7

2.1

Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate

Totalfinishedgoods

2.41.62.23.52.71.41.1

.91.4

.91.32.8

3.5

Consumer goods

Poods

3.02.93.03.7

.9-2.5

.6

.63.02.25.66.5

4.2

Excludingfoods

2.31.02,33.83.32.81.1.8.6

0-.81.9

3.8

Capitalequip-ment

1.61.81.32.82.82.21.81.61.81.52.12.2

1.8

Changefrom year

earlier,total

finishedgoodsNSA

-1.42.12.55.24.92.11.21.2

.61.9

1.71.71.82.12.22.11.71.31.82.12.02.2

2.3

Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1991. See Note, p. 22. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

198619871988 . . . .1989199019911992199319941995

1995- Jan'Feb'Mar'Apr'May-

Sept 'Octr

Dee' ..

1996- Jan

AUitems1 Pood

Housing

Total1

Shelter

Total1Rent-ers'costs

Home-own-ers'costs

andotherutili-ties

Ap-pareland

upkeep

Transportation

Total1 Newcars

Motorfuel

Medi-eal

care

Ener-gy2

Allitemslessfoodand

energy

Change, December to December, NSA

1.14.44.44.66.13,12.92.72.72.5

3.83.55.25.65.31.91.52.92.92.1

1.73.74.03.94.53.42.62.72.23.0

4.64.84.54.95.23.92.93.03.03.5

5.03.93.94.56.74.22.82.62.33.0

4.65.34.75.14.73.72.93.23.33.7

-5.61.62.93.24.02.92.32.5

.21.4

0.94.84.71.05.13.41.4.9

-1.6.1

-596.13.04.0

10.4-1.5

3.02.43.81.5

5.91.82.12.31.43.32.32.83.21.6

-30.718.7

-2.16.8

36.5-16.0

1.8-5.4

5.9-4.0

7.75.86.98.59.67.96.65.44.93.9

-1978.2

.55.1

18.1-74

2.0-1 4

2.2-1.3

3.84.24.74.45.24.43.33.22.63.0

Change, month to month

0,3.2.3.3.3.3.1,2.1.3.1.2

.4

-0.3.2.1.5.2.1.1.2.3.3

0.1

.1

0.3.2.2.3.2.2.3.3.1.3.2.3

.3

0.2.2.4.3.3.3.3.1.3.4.2.2

.4

0.2.4.4.3.3.2.3

0.4.3.1.1

.7

0.3.2.3.3.4.3.3.2.3.3.3.3

.2

0.50

— 1.2

- 3.4.1.5

-.6.6.1.2

.5

0.3

.42

-Z-A

.3

.2-.2

.30.1

.7

0.4.3.5.6.6.4

-.6-.4-.1

.1-A

.1

.7

0.2.1.1.4.1.2

-.1.1.3

0.1

0

.1

-0.2-.5-.2

.42.5.2

-2.3-2.0-1.4-.5

-2.12.2

3.8

0.4.3.3.3.3.3.3.4.4.2.3.4

.4

0-.2-.2

.4

.7

.4-1.0-.4

-1.3.3

-.91.1

1.9

0.3.3.4.3.2.2.22'2.3.1.1

.3

Addendum: All items,percent change(annual rate)

Prompre-

viousquar-ter3

2J

£5

2.1

2A

Prom3

monthsearlier

3.02.73.03.23.53.52.42.11.62.62.12.4

2.6

Prom6

monthsearlier

2.72.42.63.13.13.22.82.82.52.52.12.0

2.6

Promyear

earnerNSA

1.93.64,14.85.44.23,03,02,62.8

2,82.92.93.13.23.02.82.62,52,82.62.5

2.7

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc,—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,

etc., excluded beginning 1983.3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.

Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1991.Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSIn February, prices received by farmers fell 1.9 percent from their January level. Prices paid by farmers In Februarywere up 0.9 percent from their January level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.)

INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)120

INDEX, 1990-92-100 (RATIO SCALE)

120

110

80 80

RATK140

120

100

80

60

3^ RAT

DATII-l

-

-

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1988

P-> ^-^

1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11989

f "^

Minimi !

1990

-^ «<—-

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1991

/

! M II 1 1 1 1 1 1

1992

1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1993

-

M 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1

1995

_-^s— • -

1 M M 1 M 1 M

1995

N,

-

1 1 1 M 1 M 1 M

1996

Qlf140

120

100

80

60

J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1990-92 = 100; not seasonally adjusted]

Period

198619871988 ..1989199019911992199319941995

1995: PebMar

Mav

July

SeptGot

Dec

1996- Janr

Feb

Prices received by farmers

All farmproducts

878999

10410410098

101100102

979999

101100101102105104106108

108106

Crops

8786

104109103101101102105112

101107113117113114114115114117118

122121

Livestock andproducts

889193

1001059997

1009592

9493908890919293929496

9493

Prices paid by farmers

All commodities,services, interest,taxes, and wage

rates'

8587919699

100101103106109

108(3)

108<3)(3)

108(3)(:1)

111(3)(3)

112113

Productionitems, interest,taxes, and wage

rates

8587929799

100101102106108

107(3)

107(3)<")

107(3)(:1)

109(:1)(3)

111112

Productionitems

8687909599

100101103106108

107(3)

107(3)(:1)

107(3)(:i)

110(3)(3)

112113

Ratio2

103102108108105

9998989494

9092929493949497949597

9694

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest,

taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 3.;i Beginning 1996, prices paw! by fanners are. available monthly and for same month a year

earlier. Other data are for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratiois based on latest data available.

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 has*1, as required by law. The in-dexes have been converted to a 1990-92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.

Source: Department of Agriculture.


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCK. LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURESIn January, growth in M2 slowed; growth in M3 accelerated.

BUJONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCA1E)4,8004,400

4,000

3,400

3,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

800

600

400 I.M i M|1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994

BI1UONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE)4,8004,4004,000

3,600

3,200

1995

null 400

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

800

600

1996

' AVBMCB Of DUO HGUffiS, SUSONMil AEUUS1H1SOUiai HOMO Of GOWBINOI1S Of THE fBXUi HESBM SY5TCM CCXNOt OF KONCWIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1986: Dec1987- Dec1988- Dec1989- Dec1990: Dee1991- Dec1992: Dec1993- Dee1994: Dec1995- Dec

1995: JanFebMar

July . .. .

SeptOctNovDec

1996- Jan •"

Ml

Sum of currency,demand deposits,travelers' checks,

and othercheckable depos-

its (OCDs)

724.4749.8786.9794.2825.8897.2

1,024.41,128.61,148.71,124.8

1,149.21,147.81,148.71,151.21,146.21,144.51,145.41,143.81,140.21,131.81,129.01,124.8

1,119.0

M2

Ml plus retailMMMF balances,MMDAs, and sav-

ings and small timedeposits

2,734.62,834.42,997.93,164.03,282.23,383.73,438.73,494.13,509.43,670.2

3,515.33,517.53,525.13,537,33,551.93,582.63,601.53,621.63,635.03,642.13,653.23,670.2

3,684.8

M3

M2 plus largetime deposits,RPs, Euro-dollars, andinstitution-

only MMMPbalances

3,486.43,673.33,912.44,065.54,124.14,178.44,187.34,249.64,319.4

'4,581.4

'4,343.5'4,355.9'4,375.9'4,399.9'4,428.5'4,467.0'4,495.1'4,522.9'4,543.6'4,558.2'4,568.0'4,581.4

4,609.8

L

M3 plusother liquid

assets

'4,122.44,328.54,664.24,894.24,975.85,004.45,075.8

'5,164.5'5,303.7'5,694.8

'5,331.2'5,364.9'5,402.2'5,437.1'5,464.7••5,504.0'5,553.1'5,588.8'5,634.7'5,661.5'5,668.2

"5,694.8

Debt

Debt ofdomestic

nonfinancia!sectors

(monthlyaverage ofadjacent

month-endlevels) '

7,918.08,671.09,446.4

10,173.510,854.011,338.611,881.712,516.413,153.213,841.8

13,201.913,279.813,342.313,419.413,519.613,578.213,613.113,664.913,704.013,745.013,807.8

f 13,841.8

Percent change from year or 6months earlier2

Ml

16.93.54.9

.94.08.6

14.210.21.8

-2.1

-.4-.4-.3

.4-.4-.7-.7-.7

-1,5-3.4-3.0-34

-46

M2

9.53.65.85.53.73.11.61.6.4

4.6

.4

.81.21.92.64.24.95.96.25.95.74.9

4.6

M3

9.05.46.53.91.41.3.2

1.51.66.1

3.13.74.24.95.76.87.07.77.77.26.35.1

5.1

Debt

12.69.58.97.76.74.54.85.35.15.2

5.25.55.55.96.26.56.25.85.44.94.33.9

1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local govern-ments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.

2AnnuaI changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 monthsearlier at a simple annual rate.

NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

26


COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1986- Dec1987: Dec1988- Dec1989- Dec1990: Dec1991- Dec1992- Dec . . .1993: Dee1994- Dec1995: Dec

1995: JanFebMar

May

July

SeptOctNovDec

1996: Jail'

Cur-rency

180.7196.8212.3222.6246.9267.4292.9322.4354.9373.2

357.6359.0362.3365.0367.6367.0367.3368.5369.5370.8371.6373.2

373.6

De-manddepos-

its

302.1286.8286.8279.3277.4289.5339.1384.3382.4389.8

383.3383.5382.9382.1382.1386.5388.5389.3389.4388.1388.2389.8

393.5

Othercheck-able

depos-its

(OCDs)

235.6259.5280.9285.3293.9332.5384.2414.0402.9353.0

399.8396.8394.8395.1387.4382.0380.8377.2372.4364.1360.3353.0

343.0

Money marketmutual fund

balances

Retail1

210.3224.5246.0322.5358.1373.7356.0358.7388.1475.1

392.4394.2396.2401.5410.1427.4440.4452.4459.4464.3469.7475.1

478.9

Insti-tutiononly-

84.591.190.3

106.9133.5179.5199.8197.9183.7226.4

189.3188.4195.0199.4203.7213.2218.6218.5221.7223.6224.0226.4

229.7

Savingsdeposits,including

moneymarketdeposit

accounts(MMDAs)

940.9937.3926.3893.6923.8

1.045.0M87.11,218.81,148.91,134.5

1,134.71,118.01,102.51,091.21,089.51,097.01,096.21,101.61,108.41,116.11,120.61,134.5

1.151.8

Smalldenom-inationtime

depos-its -!

859.0922.7

1,038.61,153.71,174.51,067.8

871.2788.0823.7935.7

839.1857.5877.7893.4906.1913.7919.4923.8927.0929.9933.9935.7

935.0

Largedenom-inationtime de-posits :i

420.2467.0518.3541.5480.9416.5353.7333.8363.5418.6

364.2371.8377.6381.0384.5387.7394.0396.8400.7410.3416.3418.6

420.9

Over-nightandtenn

repur-chaseagree-ments(RPs)(net)

143.3172.6189.0158.0138.8119.4128.1157.5

'180.8'177.3

'187.4'191.9191.1'192.1'197.2'191.7'188.4'192.9'192.5'189.9'185.2'177.3

182.0

Over-nightandtermEuro-dollars(net)

103.9108.2117.095.288.779.366.966.382.3

'88.9

87.386.487.290.191.191.892.693.193.7

'92.2'89.3'88.9

92.3

Sav-ings

bonds

91.8100.6109.4117.5126.0137.9156.6171.5180.3

P 184.8

180.5180.5180.7181.2181.7182.4183.0183.5183.9184.2184.5' 184.8

Short-term

Treas-ury

securi-ties

275.8249.5266.8324.0334.2329.1345.9342.9387.3

c 479.6

387.3400.2411.1412.0

'405.5'414.7'434.0'436.6'455.7'464.9'465.9

>> 479.6

Bank-ers' ac-cept-ances

37.144.540.240.736.123.920.914.914.2

Pll.9

13.613.513.713.412.011.012.112.412.813.412.6

Pll.9

Com-mer-cial

paper

231.3260.6335.4346.5355.3335.2365.0385.6402.4

<• 437.1

406.3414.9420.9430.6437.0428.9429.0433.3438.6440.7437.3

f 437.1

1 Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of less than $50,000.2 Balances in money funds with minimum initial investments of $50,000 or more.3 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less

than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbunk issuers are a component of money stock but are notshown here.

Source: Hoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE[Averages of daily figures'; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

1986- Dec1987: Dee1988- Dec1989: Dee1990- Dee1991: Dec1992- Dec1993: Dec1994- Dec1995- Dec

1995- JanPebMar

May

JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1996- Jan'

Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements

Reserves of depository institutions

Total

38,94038,85640,39940,49841,77145,53654,35460,50259,34256,334

59,12458,91958,55257,95757,76157,35257,65557,51557,36856,82156,26956,334

55,594

Non-borrowed

38,11338,07838,68340,23241,44545,34354,23060,42059,13356,077

58,98858,86058,48357,84757,61157,08057,28457,23357,09156,57556,06556,077

55,556

Non-borrowed

plusextended

credit

38,41638,56239,92740,25241,46845,34454,23160,42059,13356,077

58,99258,86058,48357,84757,61157,08057,28457,23357,09156,57556,06556,077

55,556

Required

37,57037,80939,35239,57540,10644,55753,19959,44058,17455,056

57,78557,97357,75757,20456,88156,38856,56556,52756,41855,73955,32655,056

54,110

Monetarybase

223,574239,775256,897267,713293,275317,432351,116386,602418,223435,024

421,054422,497425,207427,544430,090429,264429,785430,782431,652432,702433,152435,024

435,170

Borrowings of depository institu-tions from the Federal

Reserve (NSA)

Total

827777

1,71626532619212482

209257

1365969

111150272371282278245204257

38

Seasonal

3893

1308476381831

10040

46335182

1371722312582521997340

7

Extendedcredit

303483

1,244202311000

400000000000

01 Data arc prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.


BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKSTotal commercial bank loans and leases rose 1.0 percent in January; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.9percent.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE]

4,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE]

4,000

200

160

200

1988 1996


[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted '

Period

1988- Dec1989- Dec1990- Dec1991- Dec1992- Dec1993- Dec1994- Dec1995- Dec'

1995- JanFeb

AprMay

July

SeptGet'

Dec'

1996- Jan'

Totalbankcredit

2,436.12,609.12,751.62,856.42,957.0

'3,113.83,326.23,597.6

3,354.83,367.53,392.93,470.53,492.03,512.93,526.2

'3,541.4'3,564.2

3,576.43,586.83,597.6

3,623.1

Securities in bank credit

Totalsecurities

562.0584.5633.7745.0843.4

'918.8952.3989.5

950.1939.3942.0996.1986.1985.4975.9978.1982.2985.2987.1989.5

988.6

U.S.Govern-

mentsecurities

366.8400.0455.6565.2666.8733.9732.0712.8

729.3724.8712.0708.7710.8709.9703.9708.5708.4713.9715.8712.8

704.5

Othersecurities

195.2184.5178.2179.8176.7

'184.9220.2276.7

220.8214.5230.0287.4275.3275.5272.0269.6273.8271.2271.3276.7

284.1

Loans and leases in bank credit

Totalloans andleases 2

1,874.12,024.72,117.82,111.42,113.62,195.02,374.02,608.1

2,404.62,428.22,450.92,474.42,505.92,527.52,550.32,563.22,581.92,591.22,599.62,608.1

2,634.4

Commer-cial and

industrial

608.0639.3640.8619.5596.2585.9645.2718.5

656.7670.2673.9680.8687.8692.1697.8701.9708.5710.7715.1718.5

725.1

Real estate

Total

675.1770.2855.3880.0901.3940.5

1,001.71,077.4

1,013.81,021.81,029.01,036.61,043.9

'1,053.1'1,062.4'1,068.2'1,072.2

1,075.61,076.91,077.4

1,084.1

Revolvinghomeequity

40.150.362.369.673.573.075.379.2

75.776.076.176.677.277.878.078.278.478.478.879.2

79.7

Other

635.0719.9793.0810.3827.7867.5926.4998.2

938.0945.9952.9

'960.0966.7

'975.3'984.4'990.0'993.9

997.2998.1998.2

1,004.4

Consumer

357.8378.3383.4366.6358.9390.5451.2493.2

457.2459.4464.3470.3472.9478.6

'481.0485.7

'489.4489.2491.2493.2

497.6

Security

40.741.445.054.464.187.576.282.7

73.373.476.077.888.388.087.184.386.686.686.282.7

83.9

Other

192.5195.5193.2190.9193.0190.6199.6236.3

203.6203.3207.7208.9213.0215.7222.1223.2225.2229.0230.2236.3

243.81 Data are Wednesday values or prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically char-

tered commercial banks, branches arid agencies of foreign banks, New York State investmentcompanies, and foreign-related institutions. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by redassifica-tioris of assets and liabilities.

-Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreeicommercial banks in the United States,

Source: IJoantJ of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

nnts (Kl*s) with, arid loans to

28


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATEBUSINESS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1990 r

1991 r

1992'1993'1994 r

1995P

1994- W1995: Ir

II r

inWP

Sources

Total

592.8489.3599.9619.4785.7885.2

993.6

813.3951.5920.2855.9

Internal 1

409.3422.2438.6480.1521.6538.1530.4

517.5526.5561.5547.0

External

Total

183.567.1

161.3139.3264.1347.1463.2

295.8425.0358.7308.9

Credit market funds

Total

47.0-34.8

61.173.384.4

135.121.1

196.2204.745.394.3

Securitiesand mort-

gages

-26.675.967.185.72804.8

-114.3

-10.941.5

-35.423.8

Loans andshort-term

paper

73.61107-6.0

-12.4112.4130.3135.4

207.1163.280.770.5

Other2

136.5101.9100.166.0

179.7212.0442.199.6

220.3313.4214.7

Uses

Total

509.8500.7554.4612.0768.7838.2

982.9

735.6928.0885.4804.0

Capital

tures3

394.5370.9386.9430.6485.0551.5528.6

555.0538.6579.2533.4

Increase infinancialassets

115.3129.8167.5181.4283.7286.7

454.3

180.6389.4306.2270.6

Discrep-ancy

(sourcesless

uses)

83.1-11.4

45.67.4

17.047.010.777.823.534.951.9

1 Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixedcapital, foreign earnings retained abroad, and inventory valuation adjustment.

2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investmentin the U.S.

3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and access rights fromU.S. Government.

NOTE.—Series revised to reflect annual benchmarking and seasonal adjustment revisions, aswell as the recent comprehensive revisions of the national income and product accounts releasedby the Department of Commerce.

Annual data prior to 1990 and quarterly data prior to 1994: IV are not yet available.


CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT[Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]

Period

1986- Dec1987- Dec1988- Dec3

1989- Dec1990- Dec1991- Dec1992: Dec1993- Dec1994: Dec1995- Decr

1995- JanPebMarAprMayJuneJulyAueSeptOctNovDecr

1996- JanP

Installment credit outstanding (end of period)

Total

572.0608.7662.6717.2734.9728.4730.8790.4902.9

1,024.8

914.4918.9933.0946.3959.1970.6979.4989.7993.8

1,005.21,015.01,024.81,035.1

Automobile

247.8266.3285.4291.5283.1259.6257.4280.6317.2353.3

319.3321.0323.3326.2328.0330.7337.1339.8341.2344.7349.1353.3356.1

Revolving

135.8153.1174.3199.2223.5245.3258.1286.6334.5395.2

340.2345.1351.5358.7366.1372.3375.3379.7382.1387.2390.1395.2400.5

Other2

188.4189.3202.9226.5228.3223.5215.3223.2251.1276.2

254.9252.8258.2261.4265.0267.5267.0270.3270.6273.3275.8276.2278.5

Net change in installment credit outstanding1

Total

54.336.753.9( 4 )

17.7-6.5

2.459.6

112.5121.911.54.5

14.113.312.811.58.8

10.34.1

11.49.89.8

10.3

Automobile

37.618.519.1( 4 )84

-23.5-2.223.236.636.12.11.72.32.91.82.76.42.71.43.54.44.22.8

Revolving

14.017.321.2

< 4 )24.321.812.828.547.960.7

5.74.96.47.27.46.23.04.42.45.12.95.15.3

Other 2

2.7.9

13.6( 4)1.8

-4.8-8.2

7.927.925.13.8

-2.15.43.23.62.5

53.3

.32.72.5

.42.3

1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preced-ing month.

2 Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc.

3 Data newly available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December1988 and subsequent months.

4 Because of breaks in series, net change not available.



INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rotes rose in the early weeks of March.

PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM14

SOURCE. SEE TAME KLOW COUNCH Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum)

Period

1986 .1987198819891990199119921993199419951995: Feb

MarAprMayJuneJulyAuerSeptOctNovDec ,

1996- JanPeb

Week ended:1996: Peb 17

24Mar 2

916

U.S. Treasury security yields

3-month bills(new issues) l

5.985.826.698.127.515.423.453.024.295.515.805.735.675.705.505.475.415.265.305.355.165.024.87

4.804.784.864.894.95

Constant maturities2

3-year

7.067.688.268.558.266.825.304.446.276.257.256.896.686.275.805.896.105.895.775.575.395.205.14

4.945.285.445.52

10-year

7.688.398.858.498.557.867.015.877.096.577.477.207.066.636.176.286.496.206.045.935.715.655.81

5.655.976.066.08

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard& Poor's)3

7.387.737.767.247.256.896.415.636.195.956.246.106.015.905.835.986.075.885.775.615.425.425.45

5.325.535.575.62

CorporateAaa bonds(Moody's)

9.029.389.719.269.328.778.147.227.977.598.268.128.037.657.307.417.577.327.127.026.826.816.99

6.867.137.207.21

Prunecommercial

paper,6 months 1

6.396.857.688.807.955.853.803.304.935.936.386.306.196.075.795.685.755.665.715.595.435.234.99

4.934.995.055.12

Discount rate(N.Y. F.B.

Bank)4

6.335.666.206.936.985.453.253.003.605.21

4.75-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.255.25-5.005.00-5.00

5.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-5.005.00-

Prime ratecharged by

banks4

8.338.219.32

10.8710.018.466.256.007.158.83

8.50-9.009.00-9.009.00-9.009.00-9.009.00-9.009.00-8.758.75-8.758.75-8.758.75-8.758.75-8.758.75-8.508.50-8.508.50-8.25

8.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-8.258.25-

New-homemortgage

yields(FHFB) 5

10.179.319.19

10.1310.05

9.328.247.207.497.878.288.218.157.997.737.787.757.697.587.467.407.32

1 Bank-discount basis.2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury

Department.3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.4 Average effective rate for year; opening- and closing rate for month and week.

3 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees andcharges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor'sCorporation.

30


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices rose in the early weeks of March.

INDE

340320300280260

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

PEW20

15

10

5

0

X,DEC. 31,1 965-50 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, DEC. 31,1 965=50 (RATIO SCALE)

e

s\

S~/

^"— — ~~"

S~~

/^^

1 1 1 1 1 INN

1988:ENT

1 1 1 1 1 i i i i i

1989

K's —

V

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11990

f~~ .> '

I I I I I M i l l

1991

^~yr \POSITE STCCK P

(NYSE)

M i l l 1 1 1 1 11992

KE IND

I I I I I 1 1 1 1 11993

\ — /"^^\

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11994

'

I I I I I M i l l

1995

J

t i l l ! i i i i i

1996PERCE

— """

i i1988

— **.1 ^

i i

1989

i

EARNINGS-P

T-—

i

1990

I

•RICE RATIO ON(S&P)

/ii1991

COMMON STOCKS

" 1i i i

1992

1 i

==="i

1993

•

1 1 1

1994

•

i 1

1995

i i

1996

3§8340320300280260

240220

200

180

160

140

120

NT20

15

10

5

0

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1986 .198719881989199019911992199319941995

1995- PebMar

May

July

Sept . .Oct

Dec

1996- JanFeb

Week ended:1996- Feb 17

24Mar 2

9

Common stock prices '

New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965=50,except as noted) 2

Composite

136.00161.70149.91180.02183.46206.33229.01249.58254.12291.15

261.86266.81274.37281.81289.52298.18300.05310.41311.78317.58327.90

329.22346.46

349.26347.43345.03347.80

Industrial

155.85195.31180.95216.23225.78258.14284.62299.99315.25367.34

328.98337.96347.69357.01366.75379.13379.79390.42389.63398.66412.11

412.71435.92

438.89438.08434.86439.21

Transpor-tation

119.87140.39134.12175.28158.62173.99201.09242.49247.29269.41

237.29244.45254.36254.69256.80279.15285.63295.54291.16300.06303.53

300.30315.29

316.75319.46317.29321.18

Utility3

142.72148.59143.53174.87181.20185.32198.91228.90209.06220.30

207.73204.16208.93211.58216.27219.18221.99229.64236.43238.98247.59

254.07257.80

261.66254.82250.39249.17

Finance

147.20146.48127.26151.88133.26150.82179.26216.42209.73238.45

211.76213.29219.38228.55236.26240.50245.27260.72265.12266.12273.36

273.73290.97

293.59291.67292.20294.47

Dow-Jonesindustrialaverage4

1,792.762,275.992,060.822,508.912,678.942,929.333,284.293,522.063,793.774,493.76

3,953.724,062.784,230.664,391.574,510.764,684.764,639.274,746.764,760.464,935.815,136.10

5,179.375,518.73

5,567.125,553.365,528.545,596.90

Standard &Poor's com-posite index

(1941-43=10)r-

236.34286.83265.79322.84334.59376.18415.74451.41460.33541.64

481.92493.15507.91523.81539.35557.37559.11578.77582.92595.53614.57

614.42649.54

655.37651.67645.45649.15

Common stock yields(percent) 6

Dividend-price ratio

3.493.083.643.453.613.242.992.782.822.56

2.812.762.682.602.552.502.492.422.412.372.30

2.312.22

2.202.222.232.21

Earnings-priee ratio

6.095.488.017.416.474.794.224.465.83

6.51

6.32

6.01

Average of' daily dosing prices.Includes all the stocks (more than 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE.Dec. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility

ex to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. All indexes shown here reflectdoubling.Includes 30 stocks.Includes r>00 stocks.

"Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earn-ings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's

Corporation.


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBTIn the first 4 months of fiscal 1996, there was a deficit of $36.6 billion, compared with a deficit of $57.8 billiona year earlier.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

-100

-200

-300

-400

RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,600

1,500

OUTLAYS-17-

VRECEIPTS-

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)^

I

1986 1987 1988 1989

•" INCLUDES ON-BUDGEI AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.5OUBCES: DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFFICE Of MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

1990 1991

FISCAL YEARS

1992 1993 1994 1995

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

-100

-200

-300

-400

COUNOl Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period

19761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995'Cumulative total, first 4

months: 'Fiscal year 1995Fiscal year 1996

Total

Receipts

298.1355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

734.1769.1854.1909.0990.7

1,031.31,054.31,090.51,153.51,257.71,350.6

439.3466.8

Outlays

371.8409.2458.7504.0590.9678.2745.8808.4851.8946.4990.3

1,003.91,064.11,143.21,252.71,323.41,380.91,408.71,460.91,514.4

497.1503.4

Surplusor deficit

(-)

-73.7-53.7-59.2-40.7-73.8-79.0

-128.0-207.8-185.4

-212.3-221.2- 149.8-155.2-152.5-221.4-269.2-290.4-255.1-203.2-163.8

-57.8-36.6

On-budget

Receipts

231.7278.7314.2365.3403.9469.1474.3453.2500.4

547.9568.9640.7667.5727.0749.7760.4788.0841.6922.7999.5

332.4356.8

Outlays

302.2328.5369.1404.1476.6543.1594.4661.3686.0

769.6806.8810.1861.4932.3

1,027.61,081.81,128.51,142.11,181.51,225.7

410.0413.7

Surplusor deficit

(-)

-70.5-49.8-54.9

38 7-72.7-74.0

-120.1-208.0-185.7

-221.7-238.0-169.3-194.0-205.2-278.0-321.4-340.5-300.5-258.8-226.2

-77.6-56.9

Off-budget

Receipts

66.476.885.498.0

113.2130.2143.5147.3166.1186.2200.2213.4241.5263.7281.7293.9302.4311.9335.0351.1

106.9110.0

Outlays

69.680.789.7

100.0114.3135.2151.4147.1165.8176.8183.5193.8202.7210.9225.1241.7252.3266.6279.4288.7

87.189.7

Surplusor deficit

(-)

-3.2-3.9-4.3-2.0-1.1-5.0-7.9

.2

.39.4

16.719.638.852.856.652.250.145.355.762.4

19.920.3

Gross Federal debt(end of period)

Total

629.0706.4776.6829.5909.1994.8

1,137.31,371.71,564.7

1,817.52,120.62,346.12,601.32,868.03,206.63,598,54,002.14,351.44,643.74,921.0

4,762.54,937.7

Held bythe public

477.4549.1607.1640.3709.8785.3919.8

1,131.61,300.5

1,499.91,736.71,888.72,050.82,189.92,410.72,688.12,998.83,247.53,432.23,603.3

3,505.23,631.9

1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement.

NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Rurltfftt nfthf, UnitcA StntfJi (iovf.rnntf.nt, Fixad Yfjir1996, issued February tt, 1995.

Sources: Department of the Treasury arid Office of Management and Budget.

32


FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 4 months of fiscal 1996, receipts were $27.5 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $6.3billion higher.


A" RECEIPTS^

500

"~ OTHER RECEIPTS

0 1 1 1

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES

\

INCOME TAXES

\

1 1 1

AX)

•-• — -=. 500

, — T 400\

TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS nnn

1 1 1 n

1,300

800

300

200

OUTLAYS _— —*••* •""**""""

NONDEFENSE\ _-.--

\''

^ •'**

"

NATIONAL DEFENSE

\

XI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 NV 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 N

J'lNOUOESON-BUDGE! AM> OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. FISCALSOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE Of MANAGEM&4T AND BUDGET COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

1,300

800

500

400

300

200

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period

197619771978197919801981198219831984

19851986198719881989199019911992 . . .199319941995'Cumulative total, first 4 months: '

Fiscal year 1995Fiscal year 1996

On-budgct and off-budget receipts

Total

298.1355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

734.1769.1854.1909.0990.7

1,031.31,054.31,090.51,153.51,257.71,350.6

439.3466.8

indi-vidualincometaxes

131.6157.6181.0217.8244.1285.9297.7288.9298.4

334.5349.0392.6401.2445.7466.9467.8476.0509.7543.1590.2

214.0230.7

Cor-pora-tion

incometaxes

41.454.960.065.764.661.149.237.056.9

61.363.183.994.5

103.393.598.1

100.3117.5140.4157.1

39.747.1

Nodalinsur-ancetaxesand

contri-butions

90.8106.5121.0138.9157.8182.7201.5209.0239.4

265.2283.9303.3334.3359.4380.0396.0413.7428.3461.5484.5

146.9150.3

Other

34.336.637.740.850.669.569.365.671.8

73.073.174.378.982.390.992.3

100.598.0

112.8118.9

38.738.7

Ori-bud^et and off-budget out ays

Total

371.8409.2458.7504.0590.9678.2745.8808.4851.8

946.4990.3

1,003.91,064.11,143.21,252.71,323.41,380.91,408.71,460.91,514.4

497.1503.4

National defense

Total

89.697.2

104.5116.3134.0157.5185.3209.9227.4

252.7273.4282.0290.4303.6299.3273.3298.4291.1281.6272.2

87.885.2

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

87.995.1

102.3113.6130.9153.9180.7204.4220.9

245.2265.5274.0281.9294.9289.8262.4286.9278.6268.6259.6

83.580.9

Inter-nation-

alaffairs

6.46.47.57.5

12.713.112.311.815.9

16.214.211.610.59.6

13.815.916.117.217.116.4

8.84.2

Health

15.717.318.520.523.226.927.428.630.4

33.535.940.044.548.457.771.289.599.4

107.1114.8

36.837.1

Medi-care

15.819.322.826.532.139.146.652.657.5

65.870.275.178.985.098.1

104.5119.0130.6144.7159.9

49.855.6

Incomesecu-rity

60.861.061.566.486.599.7

107.7122.6112.7

128.2119.8123.3129.3136.0147.0170.3196.9207.3214.0220.2

67.169.6

Social

rity

73.985.193.9

104.1118.5139.6156.0170.7178.2

188.6198.8207.4219.3232.5248.6269.0287.6304.6319.6335.8

108.3113.2

Notinter-est

26.729.935.542.652.568.885.089.8

111.1

129.5136.0138.7151.8169.3184.2194.5199.4198.8203.0232.2

75.880.3

Other

82.893.0

114.7120.2131.4133.5125.4122.3118.6

131.8142.1125.9139.4158.8203.9224.8173.9159.7173.8162.9

62.758.3

1 Data from Mtmtiily Tmtsury Statement.

NoTK.—Data (except as noted) an- from Rutbjct of the. Unite/I States Gmwrnmi'.nt, Fixeed Ymr.'/%; issuwl February 6, 1995.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and ()ffu* of Management and

33


FEDERAL SECTOR NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the third quarter of 1995, Federal receipts rose $3.4 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures rose $4.3billion. In the fourth quarter, according to advance estimates, expenditures rose $1.4 billion; receipts data areincomplete.


1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

-

EXPENDITURES

\ .„

-^ s

-

-

-

-

~\.

i i i1982

— — -

^ '

'

1 1 1

1983

_ „ - •

^

_^

1 1 1

1984

"'

X —

i i i1985

•-

S

-— ., s~

1 1 1

1986

„_-•"

y-"

_^s

CURRENTJRH.US OR DEFICIT (

y

1987

>_

i i i1988

V

s

-)

— ->—,

1 1 11989

--•'>

^—

v^

1 1 !

1990

fs

"VV^™

! 1 1

1991

r*-~'

fjs-

"

i i i1992

r--'

^

^— '

1 1 !

1993

^

y~

\r

i i t1994

-

/- -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

,— -

i i i1995

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

CALENDAR YEARS

SOURCE: DEPAKTM&JT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISKS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Calendar year:1989199019911992199319941995P

1990- IV1991- IV1992- IV

1993- IIIIIIIV

1994- IIIIIIIV

1995- IIIIIIrv

Federal Government receipts

Total

1,079.31,129.81,149.01,198.51,275.31,377.0

1,135.21,160.91,230.5

1,225.21,271.31,280.31,324.4

1,321.91,382.81,387.11,416.3

1,449.31,483.21,486.6

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

463.4485.7476.9490.8523.6561.4615.1

484.9479.0510.0

501.0521.0529.1543.4

539.3571.3560.4574.5

594.6624.4617.3624.2

Cor-porateprofitstax ac-cruals

117.1118.0109.8118.6137.5164.4

117.4111.1123.7

127.5136.5133.7152.2

144.3162.2171.3180.0

183.1180.7189.1

Indirectbusinesstax andnontax

accruals

61.765.179.781.988.292.691.2

67.482.886.5

84.387.587.293.7

92.891.393.393.2

91.793.588.491.3

Contri-butions

forsocialinsur-ance

437.1461.1482.6507.1526.0558.6588.4

465.6488.1510.3

512.4526.2530.3535.1

545.5558.1562.1568.6

579.9584.6591.8597.2

Federal Government current expenditures

Total

1,192.71,284.51,345.01,479.41,530.01,566.91,641.0

1,313.01,399.81,509.5

1,508.91,520.51,533.81,556.8

1,534.71,552.71,573.51,606.8

1,622.61,643.81,648.11,649.5

Consump-tion

expendi-tures

405.2426.6445.9451.0451 .4450.6453.9

437.7440.5457.7

450.8447.9453.0453.8

446.7445.1455.5455.3

454.8456.1453.5451.2

Trans-fer

pay-ments

471.7513.3522.2625.1658.7682.6720.5

526.1565.8643.3

645.6654.3660.4674.6

671.2676.6681.5701.2

708.6715.2727.0731.2

Grants-in-aid

toStateandlocal

govern-ments

118.2132.4153.4172.2185.7195.9206.1

137.1162.7176.3

177.3181.5187.2197.0

192.2197.5196.9196.9

205.8211.3203.8203.3

Netinterest

paid

1667179.9192.7195.8192.3201.4229.3

177.8200.0191.8

190.4193.2192.7192.9

188.2198.2204.4214.9

221.2229.2232.7234.1

Subsi-dies lesscurrentsurplus

ofGovern-

mententer-prises

30.832.430.835.141.836.431.3

34.430.940.3

44.743.640.538.6

36.535.335.238.5

32.332.031.129.7

Less:Wageaccru-als less

dis-burse-ments

0.0.1

-.1.0.0.0.0

.2

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

Currentsurplus

ordeficit(-),

nationalincome

andproductaccounts

-113.4-154.7-196.0-280.9-254.7- 189.9

-177.7-238.8-279.0

-283.7-249.2-253.5-232.4

-212.9- 169.9- 186.3-190.4

-173.3-160.5-161.6


34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995/>

1994- Oct

Dee

1995- JanFebMar

May

July

SeptOct

Dec*" .'

Industrial iroduction (1987=100; seasonally adjust**!)

UnitedStates

95.3100.0104.4106.0106.0104.2107.7111.5118.1121.9

119.9120.5121.5

121.8121.7121.9121.4121.3121.4121.5122.7122.8122.2122.4122.6

Canada

95.4100.0105.3105.2101.797.498.5

102.9109.6

111.9113.6114.3

114.8114.4113.5113.7114.1113.1114.0114.2114.4114.1114.7

Japan

96.7100.0109.4115.7120.6122.9115.8111.0112.31158

112.5115.7115.3

114.0116.3118.1117.0116.4115.4112.8116.5113.4115.0116.6117.7

France

98.0100.0104.6108.9111.0111.0109.7105.6111.0

112.0112.6113.4

113.9112.5114.8113.0115.2114.9115.4115.4113.1111.0

Germany

99.6100.0103.9108.8114.5118.7116.3107.4110.8

112.7112.9116.1

109.8111.1110.6111.3112.2111.2113.3109.5110.0107.6107.5

Italy

96.2100.0105.9109.2109.4108.4108.2105.5110.7

112.5112.5119.1

114.3115.0116.4117.4115.9116.3117.1124.1118.7118.2

UnitedKingdom

96.2100.0104.8107.0106.7102.8102.7104.7110.0

111.6110.7111.4

111.3112.0113.0112.1112.4112.0112.8112.7113.2112.3112.8

Consumer prices (1982-84=100; NSA)

UnitedStates '

109.6113.6118.3124.0130.7136.2140.3144.5148.2152.4

149.5149.7149.7

150.3150.9151.4151.9152.2152.5152.5152.9153.2153.7153.6153.5

Canada

113.4118.4123.2129.3135.5143.1145.2147.9148.2151.4

148.2149.0149.2

149.8150.5150.8151.2151.6151.6151.9151.8151.8151.8152.0151.8

Japan

104.8104.9105.7108.0111.4115.0116.9118.5119.3119.2

120.0119.7119.4

119.4118.9118.8119.3119.6119.5118.7118.9119.7119.4118.9119.0

France

117.2120.9124.2128.6133.0137.2140.6143.5145.9148.4

146.7146.7146.5

146.9147.5147.9148.0148.3148.3148.0148.7149.2149.3149.5149.6

Germany

104.7104.9106.3109.2112.2116.2120.9125.2128.6130.8

128.9129.0129.4

129.6130.3130.3130.5130.7131.1131.5131.2131.1131.0131.0131.4

Italy

128.5134.4141.1150.4159.5169.8178.8186.3193.6204.0

195.8196.5197.2

197.9199.5201.2202.2203.5204.6204.7205.4206.0207.1208.3208.7

UnitedKingdom

114.9119.7125.6135.4148.2156.9162.7165.3169.3175.2

170.6170.7171.5

171.5172.6173.3175.1175.8176.0175.2176.1176.9176.0176.0177.1

1 Data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as rejwrted by Department of (Vmirnerce (Bureau of EconomicAnalysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis).

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995C

1994: Dec

1995: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec''

Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value)

BOPbasis

223.3250.2320.2362.1389.3416.9440.4456.8002 5574.9

46.2

44.945.647.947.248.347.446.449.149.849.049.650.5

Census basis (by end-use category) '

Total,Censusbasis2

227.2254.1322.4363.8393.6421.7448.2465.15126583.9

47.2

45.646.348.747.849.148.247.149.850.549.850.451.3

Foods,teds,andlev-

erages

22.324.332.337.235.135.740.340.641 950.5

4.2

3.93.94.14.24.03.94.24.54.84.44.44.5

In-dus-trialsup-pliesand

mate-rials

57.366.785.199.3

104.4109.7109.1111.8121.4146.1

11.3

11.611.712.612.312.412.711.812.112.412.611.812.2

Cap-ital

goodsexceptauto-mo-tive

75.886.2

109.2138.8152.7166.7175.9181.7205.2233.0

18.7

17.117.919.218.819.419.519.020.019.720.320.821.3

Auto-mo-tive

vehi-cles,partsanden-

gines

21.724.629.334.837.440.047.052.457.660.6

5.5

5.55.35.15.15.14.54.45.35.64.84.95.3

Con-sumergoods(non-food)ex-ceptauto-mo-tive

14.217.723.136.443.345.951.454.760.064.5

5.3

5.15.35.45.35.55.45.25.55.55.55 55.6

Gooi s: Imports (customs va tie)

BOPbasis

368.4409.8447.2477.4498.3491.0536.5589.4668.6749.3

59.4

60.759.962.563.564.363.962.662.663.562.761.862.7

Census basis (by end-use category)

Total,Censusbasis2

365.4406.2441.0473.2495.3488.5532.7580.7663.3743.4

59.2

60.559.761.662.663.163.062.462.463.362.361.562.5

Foodsfeeds,andbev-

erages

24.424.824.825.126.626.527.627.931.033.2

2.7

2.82.82.92.72.72.82.72.82.82.82.72.7

In-dus-trialsup-pliesand

mate-rials

101.3111.0118.3132.3143.2131.6138.6145.6162.0180.8

14.2

14.514.415.315.515.815.715.314.915.314.714.914.7

Cap-ital

goodsexceptauto-mo-tive

71.884.5

101.4113.3116.4120.7134.3152.4184.4221.6

16.8

17.116.917.618.018.118.718.918.919.319.719.319.4

Auto-mo-tive

vehi-cles,partsanden-

gines

78.285.287.786.187.385.791.8

102.4118.3124.5

10.8

11.010.810.71 1.010.710.41 0.010.410.49.59.6

10.3

Con-sumergoals(non-food)exceptauto-mo-tive

79.488.795.9

102.9105.7108.0122.7134.0146.3160.0

12.9

13.313.113.313.613.813.413.513.513.513.312.913.1

Services(BOP basis)

Ex-ports

86.598.5

111.1127.4147.8164.3178.6187.8198.7208.8

17.0

17.316.517.417.217.317.317.317.317.717.818.017.9

Im-ports

81.091.799.5

103.5118.8119.6122.0130.0138.8145.8

11.6

11.811.712.112.112.112.212.112.112.212.212.512.4

Balance of tradel(.xpo minus imports)

Goods,Censusbasis

-138.3-152.1-118.5-109.4-101.7-66.7-84.5

-115.6- 150.6-159.6

-12.0

-14.9- 13.4-12.9-14.8-14.1-14.7- 15.3- 12.5-12.8- 12.5-11.1-11.2

BOP basis

Goods

-145.1-159.6- 127.0-115.2- 109.0-74.1-96.1

-132.6-166.1- 174.5

-13.3

-15.8-14.3- 14.5-16.3-16.0-16.5-16.2-13.5-13.7-13.7-12.2-12.3

Serv-ices

5.56.9

11.623.929.044.756.657.859.963.1

5.4

5.54.85.35.15.15.15.25.35.55.65.55.5

Goodsand

services

-139.6-152.7-115.3-91.4-80.0-29.4-39.5-74.8

— 106.2-111.4

-7.9

- 10.3-9.5-9.2

-11.2- 10.8-11.4-11.1-8.2-8.2-8.2-6.7-6.8

1 Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988.a Total includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately.

NOTE.—HOI* refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP datashown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of tlie Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis).


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the fourth quarter of 1995, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $38.0 billion, from $43.3 billion in the thirdquarter. The current account deficit fell to $31.1 billion, from $40.3 billion in the third quarter. (Data revised for1995.)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS"

1985

* SEASONAUY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits ( — ) ]

Period

1986198719881989199019911992199319941995*>

1993: IIIinIV

1994- IIImIV

1995: I'II'Ill'IVf

Merchandise 1

Exports

223,344250 208320 230362 120389 307416 913440 352456,823502 485574,879

111,862114,131111,576119,254

118 445122,730127,384133,926

138,325142,667145,050148,837

Imports

-368,425-409765— 447 189-477365— 498 337-490981— 536 458- 589,441- 668 584- 749 348

- 140,821- 147,718- 148,181-152,721

- 154 935- 164,224-172,011- 177,414

-182,784-191,321- 188,376-186,867

Netbalance

- 145,081-159557-126959-115245— 109 030- 74 068— 96 106

-132^618-166099-174,469

-28,959-33,587- 36,605-33,467

- 36 490-41,494-44,627- 43,488

- 44,459-48,654-43,326- 38,030

Services

Netmilitarytrans-

tions23

-5,181-3 844-6320-6749

7 599-5274

2 142448

2 1482,810

40190

283-326

-31376

1,124679

542587889792

Nettraveland

trans-

tionreceipts

- 8,484-7613-2 591

40438002

1703220 48419,8851933018,658

5,3025,3895,0624,131

46424,6474,7925,247

5,0174,3474,4804,812

Otherservices,

19,19418319205462655828633329073828437,4443841041,584

9,6839,3159,2729,172

88639,5489,904

10,095

9,99610,37910,65010,557

Balanceon

goodsand

- 139,551- 152 696-115324- 91 392- 79 994- 29 404— 39 480- 74,841

-106212-111,418

-13,573- 18,793-21,988-20,490

-23016-26,923-28,807-27,467

-28,904-33,341-27,307-21,869

Investment income

Receiptson U.S.assetsabroad

91,976100 767129 070152 517160 300137 003118 425119,248137619181,301

28,95029,95829,93130,412

3094232,33836,03138,307

43,18545,40144,45048,264

Paymentson foreignassets in

U.S.

- 79,095- 91 302

-115806-138858— 139 574-121 892— 108 346- 110,248- 146 891-192,703

-25,239-27,893-26,741-30,376

- 30 826- 34,623-38,564-42,878

-45,215-48,085-49,613-49,791

Net

12,8819465

13264136592072515111100799,000

-9272- 11,402

3,7112,0653,190

36

116-2,285-2,533- 4,571

- 2,030-2,684-5,163- 1,527

Balanceon goods,services,

and

-126,670- 143 231- 102 060- 77 733-59268- 14 293— 29402-65,841

-115484- 122,820

-9,862-16,728-18,798-20,454

- 22 900- 29,208-31,340-32,038

- 30,934-36,025-32,470-23,396

Unilateraltransfers,

net4

-24,189- 23 107— 25 023- 26 106— 33393

6869-32 148- 34,084-35761- 30,095

-7,521- 7,609-8,234

-10,722

-7371-8,778-8,374

-11,239

-7,520-7,117-7,780-7,677

oncurrentaccount

- 150,859-166338-127083- 103 839- 92 661-7424

— 61 549-99,925

-151,245-152,915

- 17,383-24,337-27,032-31,176

-30271-37,986-39,714-43,277

-38,454-43,142- 40,250-31,073

1 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military.2Transfera under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expend-

itures (imports).

36

3 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.4 Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs.

Sm p. 37 for continuation of table.


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $4.4 billion in the fourth quarterof 1995, in contrast to a decrease of $14.6 billion in the third quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reportedby U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $29.8 billion in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decreaseof $21.6 billion in the third quarter. (Data revised for 1995.)

BIUJONSOF DOUARS* BIUJONSOFDOUARS'

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

120

1985 1986 1987 1988

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED'SOURCE: DEWRTMENT OF COMMERCE

t •»I I

CHANGE INFOREIGN ASSETSIN THE U.S., NET

-I 1-I II I

1989 1991

CHANGE IN_ U.S. ASSETS

ABROAD, NET

COUNOX Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

19861987 ....19881989199019911992199319941995P1993: I

IIinIV

1994: I .IIinIV

1995: I'II 'in--IVP

U.S. assets[increase/capit

Total

-106,753- 72,617

-100,087- 168,744-74,011-57,881-65,875

-184,589- 125,851-280,096

-19,729-40,933-46,270-77,657-36,783-5,973

-27,940-55,156- 75,455

-100,355-27,517-76,769

U.S.officialreserve

assets35

3129,149

-3,912-25,293-2,158

5,7633,901

-1,3795,346

-9,742

-983822

-545-673-59

3,537-1652,033

-5,318-2,722-1,893

191

abroad, net

Other U.S.Govern-

mentassets

-2,0221,0062,9671,2592,3072,911

-1,661-330-322-326

467-281-197

318401491283

-931-152

180246

-240

)1

U.S.privateassets

-105,044-82,771-99,141

-144710-74,160

66555-68,115

-182,880130 875

-270,028-19,213- 41 474-45,529

76 666-37,125-10,001-27,492-56,258-69,985

97 453-25,870-76,720

Foreign assets in the U.S., net[increase/capital inflow (+)]

Total

226,111242,983240,265218,490122,19294,241

153,823248,529291,365426,325

19,86751,27777,92899,45880,39046,52679,73684,71594,841

124,332116,54490,609

Foreignofficialassets3

35,64845,38739,758

8,50333,91017,38940,46672,14639,409

110,48310,95517,49519,38624,31110,9779,162

19,691-421

22,30837,83639,34610,993

Otherforeignassets

190,463197,596200,507209,987

88,28276,853

113,358176,383251,956315,842

8,91233,78258,54275,14769,41337,36460,04585,13672,53386,49677,19879,616

Allocationsof specialdrawingrights

(SDKs)

Statistical discrepancy

Total (sumof the itemswith signreversed)

31,501-4,028

-13,09554,09444,480

-28,936-26,399

35,985- 14,269

6,685

17,24513,993

-4,6269,375

-13,336-2,567- 12,082

13,71819,06819,165

-48,77717,233

Of which:Seasonal

adjustmentdiscrepancy

5,367154

-6,353834

5,274587

-6,641782

6,162317

-7,076600

U.S. officialreserve

assets, net5

(unadjusted,end ofperiod)

48,51145,79847,80274,60983,31677,72171,32373,44274,33585,832

74,37873,96875,83573,44276,80975,73276,53274,33586,76190,06387,15285,832

5 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserveposition in the IMF.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the


ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT. INCOME, AND SPENDING Page

Gross Domestic Product 1Real Gross Domestic Product 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product 2Quantity and Price Indexes for GDP and Percent Changes 3Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Real Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Real Fixed Investment by Type 10Business Investment and Plans 10

EMPLOYMENT. UNEMPLOYMENT. AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Employment Cost Index—Private Industry 15Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates 19Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 21

PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 23Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods 24Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures 26Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets 27Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base 27Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Consumer Installment Credit 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt 32Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services 35U.S. International Transactions 36

General Notes

Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.Symbols used:

P Preliminary.r Revised.c Corrected.... Not available (also, not applicable).NSA not seasonally adjusted.

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