economic indicators: august 1989 - fraser congress, 1st session economic indicators august 1989...

101st Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators

AUGUST 1989(Includes data available as of August 30, 1989)

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the

Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1989

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, ChairmanPAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESAUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York)CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York)FREDERICK S. UPTON (Michigan)

SENATELLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee)RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada)WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)STEVE SYMMS (Idaho)PETE WILSON (California)CONNIE MACK (Florida)

JOSEPH J. MINARIK, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, ChairmanJOHN B. TAYLOR, Member

RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Member-Designate

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]

JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That theJoint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and thata sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeantat Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; twocopies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to theJoint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents fordistribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copiesprinted for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a single copy($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreignmailing) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGGROSS NATIONAL PRODUCTIn the second quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 7.3percent (annual rate) or $90.7 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2.7 percent and theimplicit price deflator rose 4.6 percent.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

5,600

5,200

4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

2,400

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

^\

—

GNPIN CURRENT DC

"" "~~ **«. *i

-^~~

1 1 1

1981

*-— ̂ — tf^

1 1 1

1982

X>

! ! 11983

S^-

1 1 1

1984

^

1 I 1

1985

^LLARS ^__^

\\GNP

IN 1982 DO

1 1 1

1986

,_-'"'

LARS

1 1 !1987

1 I 1

1988

^ _

—

—

—

—

—

! ! 11989

5,600

5,200

4,800

4,400

4,000

3,600

3,200

2,800

2,400

SOURCE- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1980..19811982....198319841985198619871988

1982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV

1987: IIIIV

1988: IIIUIIV

1989: III r

Grossnationalproduct

2,732.03,052.63,166.03,405.73,772.24,014.94,231.64,524.34,880.6

3,212.53,545.83,851.84,107.94,297.3

4,566.64,665.8

4,739.84,838.54,926.95,017.3

5,113.15,203.8

Personalcon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

1,732.61,915.12,050.72,234.52,430.52,629.02,797.43,010.83,235.1

2,117.02,315.82,493.42,700.42,868.5

3,055.93,083.3

3,148.13,204.93,263.43,324.0

3,381.43,446.8

Grossprivate

domestic

ment

437.0515.5447.3502.3664.8643.1659.4699.9750.3

409.6579.8661.8654.1648.8

692.8749.7

728.8748.4771.1752.8

769.6774.7

Exports and imports of goodsand services

Netexports

32.133.926.3

-6.1-58.9-78.0-97.4

-112.6-73.7

14.1-25.8-67.9

-103.2-108.9

-115.3-114.6

-82.8-74.9-66.2-70.8

— 54.0-52.7

Exports

351.0382.8361.9352.5383.5370.9396.5448.6547.7

335.9364.7385.7369.2402.4

458.0482.6

521.6532.5556.8579.7

605.6623.2

Imports

318.9348.9335.6358.7442.4448.9493.8561.2621.3

321.9390.5453.6472.4511.3

573.4597.2

604.3607.5623.0650.5

659.6675.9

Government purchases ofgoods and services

Total

530.3588.1641.7675.0735.9820.8872.2926.1968.9

671.8676.1764.5856.7888.9

933.2947.5

945.7960.1958.6

1,011.4

1,016.01,034.9

Federal

Total

208.1242.2272.7283.5310.5355.2366.5381.6381.3

293.2276.1326.0376.6368.8

384.5388.1

374.1377.1367.5406.4

399.0407.8

Nationaldefense

142.7167.5193.8214.4234.3259.1277.8294.8298.0

205.4221.5244.1268.6280.7

300.2296.8

297.4298.0296.1300.5

298.7302.0

Non-defense

65.474.878.969.176.296.088.786.883.3

87.754.681.9

108.088.1

84.391.3

76.779.171.4

105.9

100.4105.8

Stateand

local

322.2345.9369.0391.5425.3465.6505.7544.5587.6

378.7400.0438.5480.1520.1

548.7559.4

571.6583.0591.0604.9

617.0627.1

Finalsales

2,740.33,028.63,190.53,412.83,704.54,003.64,224.84,495.04,850.0

3,272.43,514.83,806.84,100.74,309.4

4,557.14,602.5

4,709.84,809.24,882.34,998.7

5,085.45,176.5

Grossdomestic

pur-chases 1

2,699.83,018.73,139.73,411.83,831.14,092.84,829.04,636.84,954.3

3,198.53,571.63,919.74,211.24,406.2

4,681.94,780.4

4,822.54,913.44,993.15,088.1

5,167.15,256.5

1 GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and s Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988

1982- IV ..1983: IV1984: IV ..1985- IV1986: IV ....

1987: mIV

1988: Inmrv

1989- ITLr


3,187.13,248.83,166.03,279.13,501.43,618.73,717.93,853.74,024.4

3,159.33,365.13,535.23,662.43,733.6

3,872.83,935.6

3,974.84,010.74,042.74,069.4

4,106.84,134.0

Personalcon-

sumptionexpendi-

tures

2,000.42,024.22,050,72,146.02,249.32,354.82,446.42,513.72,598.4

2,078.72,191.92,281.12,386.92,477.8

2,536.52,532.3

2,570.82,586.82,608.12,627.7

2,641.02,655.3

Gross privatedomestic investment

Nonre-sidential

fixed

379.2395.2366.7361.2425.2453.5438.4455.5493.8

352.3390.4444.4460.9435.7

472.8472.7

483.6497.8501.0492.7

501.0511.0

Resi-dentialfixed

137.0126.5105.1149.3170.9174.4195.7194.8194.1

115.8159.9169.6179.4200.3

192.1191.9

189.1194.2195.1198.1

195.6189.1

Changein

busi-ness

inven-tories

-6.923.9

-24.5-6.462.39.15.6

23.727.9

-59.327.041.7

7.7-20.8

6.856.6

34.321.537.518.3

24.519.0

Exports and imports ofgoods and services

Netexports

57.049.426.3

-19.9-84.0- 104.3-129.7-115.7-74.9

11.7-46.2-94.8

-135.4

-118.9-109.8

-78.2-72.6-74.9-73.8

-55.0-52.5

Ex-ports

388.9392.7361.9348.1371.8367.2397.1450.9530.1

336.0355.5376.6367.4406.5

461.3484.1

517.4519.7531.9551.4

569.7585.2

Imports

332.0343.4335.6368.1455.8471.4526.9566.6605.0

324.3401.6471.4492.6541.9

580.2593.9

595.6592.3606.9625.2

624.6637.7

Government purchases ofgoods and services

Total

620.5629.7641.7649.0677.7731.2761.6781.8785.1

660.1642.2693.2752.7776.0

783.5792.1

775.1783.0775.9806.4

799.7812.0

Federal

Total

246.9259.6272.7275.1290.8326.0334.1339.6328.9

289.5266.0300.5340.6342.4

340.7344.9

323.8327.9319.8343.9

335.5345.4

Nation-al

defense

171.2180.3193.8206.9218.5237.2252.1265.2261.5

201.4211.6225.3241.4255.8

270.6266.7

263.0262.5258.8261.6

254.4256.6

Non-defense

75.779.378.968.272.388.882.074.467 .4

88.254.475.299.286.6

70.178.2

60.865.461.082.3

81.188.9

Stateandlocal

373.6370.1369.0373.9387.0405.2427.5442.1456.2

370.6376.2392.7412.1433.6

442.8447.2

451.3455.1456.1462.5

464.2466.5

Finalsales

3,194.03,225.03,190.53,285.53,439.13,609.63,712.43,830.03,996.5

3,218.63,338.13,493.53,654.73,754.4

3,866.03,879.0

3,940.53,989.24,005.24,051.0

4,082.34,115.0

Grossdomes-

ticpur-

chases l

3,130.13,199.43,139.73,299.13,585.43,723.03,847.63,969.44,099.3

3,147.63,411.33,630.03,787.63,869.0

3,991.74,045.5

4,052.94,083.34,117.64,143.2

4,161.84,186.5

1 GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT[1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

1980198119821983 ..19841985198619871988

1982: IV1983- IT1984: IV1985: IV .1986: IV

1987- IIIrv

1988- InIllrv

1989: III '


85.794.0

100.0103.9107.7110.9113.8117.4121.3

101.7105.4109.0112.2115.1

117.9118.6

119.2120.6121.9123.3

124.5125.9

Personal consumptionexpenditures

Total

86.694.6

100.0104.1108.1111.6114.3119.8124.5

101.8105.7109.3113.1115.8

120.5121.8

122.5123.9125.1126.5

128.0129.8

Durablegoods

89.295.7

100.0102.1103.8104.8105.6108.1110.1

100.7103.1104.1104.7106.2

108.8109.0

109.3109.6110.2111.2

111.2110.8

Nondura-ble goods

89.496.9

100.0102.1105.0107.5107.3112.1116.3

101.0103.1105.8108.7107.8

112.8113.7

114.0115.9117.1118.2

120.0123.3

Services

83.992.6

100.0106.2111.6116.8122.4129.0134.9

102.7108.3113.5119.0124.9

129.8131.5

132.7134.2135.6137.3

139.0140.4

Gross privatedomestic investment

Nonresi-dentialfixed

85.193.4

100.098.897.997.799.397.598.7

100.798.397.997.9

100.0

96.797.0

97.797.898.4

100.6

100.4100.3

Residen-tial fixed

89.496.6

100.0102.2106.0108.3111.1116.2119.7

99.1103.1107.2109.0112.4

117.8118.7

119.5119.5119.6120.4

122.1124.2

Exports and imports ofgoods and services

Exports

90.297.5

100.0101.3103.2101.099.899.5

103.3

100.0102.6102.4100.599.0

99.399.7

100.8102.5104.7105.1

106.3106.5

Imports

96.0101.6100.097.497.195.293.799.0

102.7

99.397.296.295.994.4

98.8100.6

101.5102.6102.7104.0

105.6106.0

Government purchases of goods andservices

Federal

Total

84.393.3

100.0103.1106.8109.0109.7112.4115.9

101.3103.8108.5110.6107.7

112.8112.5

115.5115.0114.9118.2

118.9118.1

Nationaldefense

83.492.9

100.0103.6107.2109.2110.2111.1114.0

102.0104.7108.3111.3109.7

110.9111.3

113.1113.5114.4114.9

117.4117.7

Non-defense

86.494.3

100.0101.4105.5108.2108.1116.7123.6

99.5100.3108.9108.8101.7

120.3116.8

126.2121.0117.1128.7

123.8119.1

Stateand local

86.293.4

100.0104.7109.9114.9118.3123.2328.8

102.2106.3111.7116.5120.0

123.9125.1

126.7128.1129.6130.8

132.9134.4

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi


CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, ANDRELATED PRICE MEASURES

[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988

1982- IV1983: IV1984- IV1985: IV1986- IV

1987: inIV

1988: I .nmrv

1989- In'.

Gross national product

Currentdollars

8.911.73.77.6

10.86.45.46.97.9

4.212.44.76.24.2

8.49.0

6.58.67.57.5

7.97.3

Constant(1982)dollars

-0.21.9

-2.53.66.83.42.73.74.4

.67.31.73.02.3

5.36.6

4.03.73.22.7

3.72.7

Implicitprice

deflator

9.09.76.43.93.73.02.63.23.3

3.64.73.03.31.8

2.82.4

2.04.84.44.7

4.04.6

Chain priceindex

9.09.46.34.13.93.32.53.43.7

4.13.93.13.22.7

3.73.3

3.34.34.44.1

4.64.9

Fixed-weighted

price index(1982

weights)

9.39.36.24.14.03.42.73.64.2

4.04.03.23.33.1

3.83.8

3.84.85.24.3

4.85.1

Personal consumption expenditures

Currentdollars

10.610.57.19.08.88.26.47.67.4

10.39.77.26.06.2

9.23.6

8.77.47.57.6

7.18.0

Constant(1982)dollars

0 21.21.34.64.84.73.92.83.4

5.35.54.31.92.2

4.7-.7

6.22.53.33.0

2.02.2

Implicitprice

deflator

10.79.25.74.13.83.22.44.83.9

4.44.33.04.03.94.44.4

2.34.73.94.6

4.85.7

Chain priceindex

10.99.25.74.23.93.52.74.74.1

4.84.13.14.23.9

4.44.3

2.65.04.34.8

4.75.9

Fixed-weighted

price index(1982

weights)

10.59.05.64.24.03.52.74.74.3

4.84.13.24.33.9

4.44.5

2.65.14.64.9

4.86.4

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1980198119821983198419851986198719881982: IV1983- IV1984: IV1985- IV1986: IV

1987- HIIV

1988- Inm ..rv

1989- In p

Gross domesticproduct of

nonfinancialcorporate business(billions of dollars)

Currentdollars

1,540.81,738.41,782.21,914.22,146.72,267.12,367.12,520.72,731.3

1,779.42,012.52,201.82,309.42,408.7

2,556.22,598.4

2,648.12,705.92,754.92,816.4

2,842.72,884.5

1982dollars

1,807.91,837.21,782.21,866.02,036.52,117.42,173.92,282.62,419.5

1,760.21,940.52,069.52,137.72,198.5

2,309.22,343.3

2,381.82,408.92,434.12,453.2

2,459.12,469.2

Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) '

Totalcostand

profit 2

0.852.946

1.0001.0261.0541.0711.0891.1041.129

1.0111.0371.0641.0801.096

1.1071.109

1.1121.1231.1321.148

1.1561.168

Capitalconsump-

tionallow-anceswith

capitalconsump-

tionadjust-ment

0.095.109.125.123.118.119.123.123.123

.131

.120

.118

.120

.124

.123

.122

.122

.122

.122

.124

.125

.126

Indirectbusinesstaxes 3

0.077.090.094.098.100.103.106.106.107

.096

.098

.102

.104

.106

.107

.106

.106

.107

.108

.108

.110

.111

Compen-sation ofemploy-

ees

0.581.632.676.679.687.704.721.730.744

.685

.680

.694

.713

.727

.726

.734

.732

.740

.746

.756

.768

.779

Netinterest

0.031.037.043.037.039.038.041.047.052

.042

.037

.042

.037

.042

.048

.050

.050

.051

.053

.055

.057

.060

Corporate profits withinventory valuation and capital

consumption adjustments

Total

0.068.078.063.089.109.106.098.098.103

.057

.103

.107

.106

.096

.103

.098

.102

.103

.102

.105

.096

.092

Profitstax

liability

0.037.035.026.032.036.033.035.041.044

.023

.036

.032

.033

.038

.044

.041

.041

.044

.044

.045

.045

.040

Profitsaftertax4

0.031.044.037.057.073.073.064.058.059.034.066.075.072.058

.060

.057

.060

.059

.058

.061

.051

.052

Outputper hour

of allemploy-

ees(1982dol-

lars) *

'18.524r 18.643' 18.704'19.217' 19.682•"19.996' 20.456' 20.908' 2 1.446T 18.770'19.423* 19.783r20.117'20.646

'21.090'21.192

'21.418'21.453'21.528'21.506r21.411

Compen-sation

per hourof all

employ-ees

(dol-lars) *

' 10.769'11.777'12.635' 13.039' 13.528'14.069'14.746'15.252'15.947

'12.865'13.209'13.735'14.342' 15.005

'15.319' 15.546

'15.672'15.871'16.068'16.259

' 16.449

1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-lars,

3 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business withthe decimal point shifted two places to the left.

3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

* Data reflect revisions beginning 1986 of GNP and related items published July 27, 1989, andrevisions due to changes in the labor input series. See Note, page 16 for details.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor(Bureau of Labor Statistics).


NATIONAL INCOME[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19821983198419851986198719881982- IV1983- IV1984- IV1985: IV1986- IV1987- TTT

IV

1988- Inm . .IV

1989- III"

Nationalincome

2,518.42,719.53,028.63,234.03,412.63,665.43,972.62,548.22,851.53,096.13,312.83,473.13,694.83,799.9

3,853.63,933.64,005.74,097.4

4,185.24,249.9

Compen-sation ofemploy-

ees1

1,907.02,020.72,213.92,367.52,511.42,690.02,907.61,931.12,092.72,272.72,426.72,571.22,709.82,778.7

2.819.42,878.92,935.12,997.2

3,061.7r3,118.0

Proprietors' incomewith inventory

valuation and capitalconsumptionadjustments

Farm

24.612.430.530.234.741.639.828.519.328.129.237.233.648.4

44.045.437.732.0

59.0r50.7

Nonfarm

150.9178.4204.0225.6247.2270.0288.0159.8188.6209.7235.0252.0271.6280.3

279.9286.5289.3296.3

300.3T 304.2

Kentalincome ofpersons

withcapital

consump-tion

adjust-ment

13.613.28.59.2

11.613.415.715.812.45.67.8

13.511.514.3

15.614.616.316.1

11.8r9.7

Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capitalconsumption adjustments

Total

150.0213.7266.9282.3282.1298.7328.6146.1248.5266.9291.4275.2313.0308.2

318.1325.3330.9340.2

316.3309.1

Profits with inventory valuationadjustment and without capital

consumption adjustment

Total

159.2196.7234.2222.6228.3247.8281.8150.7223.4224.6228.4226.1261.5255.8

268.1276.4284.1298.7

279.7276.9

Profitsbefore tax

169.6207.6240.0224.3221.6266.7306.8164.1231.5226.1235.0234.1281.0276.2

288.8305.3314.4318.8

318.0297.6

Inventoryvaluation

adjust-ment

-10.4-10.9

-5.8-1.7

6.7-18.9-25.0-13.4

-8.1-1.6-6.6-8.0

-19.4-20.4

-20.728 8

-30.4-20.1

-38.3T — 20.7

Capitalconsump-

tionadjust-ment

-9.217.032.759.753.850.946.8

-4.525.142.363.049.151.552.4

49.948.946.941.5

36.6r32.3

Netinterest

272.3281.0304.8319.0325.5351.7392.9266.9290.2313.1322.7324.0355.3370.0

376.6383.0396.4415.7

436.1r458.1

1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1982....1983198419851986198719881982- IV1983: IV1984- IV1985- IV1986- IV1987: m

IV

1988: IninIV

1989- In r

Totalpersonal

con-sumptionexpendi-

tures

2,050.72,234.52,430.52,629.02,797.43,010.83,235.12,117.02,315.82,493.42,700.42,868.53,055.93,083.3

3,148.13,204.93,263.43,324.0

3,381.43,446.8

Durable goods

Totaldurablegoods

252.7289.1335.5372.2406.0421.0455.2263.8310.0346.7373.2422.0439.3424.5

446.4454.6452.5467.4

466.4471.0

Motorvehi-clesand

parts

108.9130.4157.4179.1196.2195.5211.6115.7144.4162.3173.8201.1211.3196.3

210.3212.5208.4215.3

211.7212.9

Furni-tureand

house-hold

equip-ment

95.7107.1118.8129.9139.7149.1162.099.1

112.4122.7134.7143.8151.0151.4

156.9162.2162.7166.1

172.1173.7

Other

48.151.659.363.270.076.581.649.053.261.864.777.177.076.7

79.279.981.486.0

82.684.4

Nondurable goods

Totalnon-

durablegoods

771.0816.7867.3911.2942.0998.1

1,052.3786.6837.9879.6932.7952.1

1,006.01,015.4

1,022.21,042.41,066.21,078.4

1,098.31,122.0

Food

398.8421.9448.5471.6500.0529.2559.7407.0430.8456.1482.5511.9531.7536.8

542.5554.5567.8574.1

587.3592.8

Cloth-ing andshoes

124.4135.1146.7156.4166.8177.2186.8126.5141.1149.8160.6168.7178.9180.6

180.8183.6188.9193.9

195.0199.2

Gaso-line

and oil

89.190.290.090.673.575.276.889.891.989.091.066.076.876.7

74.376.978.377.6

77.988.8

Other

158.7169.5182.1192.6201.7216.6229.0163.4174.0184.7198.5205.5218.6221.3

224.5227.5231.2232.8

238.1241.2

Serv-ices

1,027.01,128.71,227.61,345.61,449.51,591.71,727.61,066.51,167.91,267.11,394.51,494.41,610.61,643.3

1,679.51,707.91,744.71,778.2

1,816.71,853.8

Retail sales ofnew passenger

cars (millions ofunits)

Do-mestics

5.86.88.08.28.27.17.56.07.47.77.07.77.86.6

7.77.57.47.5

7.07.3

Im-ports

2.22.42.42.83.23.23.12.52.62.63.13.43.53.3

3.23.23.03.0

2.83.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $32.8 billion (annual rate) in July, following an increase of $20.5 billion in June. Wages andsalaries increased $25.4 billion in July, compared with an increase of $17.6 billion in June.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RAT1O SCALE)

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,400

800

400

. 1

. '

-'

/— —

|Illl|lllll

1981

SEASONALLY ADJUSSOURCE: DEPARIME

__

. _ _ — • - • - — —

^""~~

tmilmii1982

TED ANNUAL RATESIT OF COMMERCE

__----"""

Illllllllll

1983

TOTA

WAGE AS

C

Illllllllll

1984

r-r""'L PERSONAL Ih

"~"\

D SALARY DISE

\"~'\" 1

3THER INCOME

~"~T~"TRANSFERPAYMENTS

miilum1985

4 COME

URSEMENTS

•

iimhim1986

--

--""

_..-- — — •

iiii||ini|1987

'

,. — -

miilmti1988

COUNCIL OF

^

---*"

miilmu1989

CONOMIC ADVISERS

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,400

800

400

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988

1988: July ..AugSent ...Oct.NovDee

1989: JanFebMarApr *May r

July"

personalincome

2,258 42 52092,670 82 83863,10873 325 33,526 23 777 64,064 5

4079 84,094.2

4 118 64 18044 16894 206 3

4 273 14 319 5436074 386 843957

4 416 24449 0

Wage andsalary

disburse-ments 1

1 3720

1 51031 586 11 676 61 83861 9754209482 2494

24290

2 443 42447 7

2 465 62497 1

2 '501 62 516 7

2 54542 557 32 5794

2601 32 603 52 621 126465

Other laborincome l z

13841503163 6173 6182 9187 6199 3212 8228 9

229 3231 1232 9234 72365238 2

239 7241 3242 9244 42460247 5249 1

Proprietor

Farm

20530 724 612 430530 234741 639 8

41 038633 447 119 529 4

48 065 963 056 153 742 336 1

' income 3

Nonfarm

160 1156 1150 917842040225 6247 227002880

288 5288 529092958295 7297 4

299 63006300 8304 6303 5304 73074

income ofpersons 4

6 613 313 613 28 59 2

11 613415 7

15 616 516 716 416 116 0

13 811 89 99 79 79 696

dividendincome

52 961 363 968 775 578 785 8920

102 2

102 4103 9104 7105 8106 5106 9

1084109 4110 3111 0111 4111 8112 8

interestincome

271 93354369 7393 1444 74780

493 2523 2571 1

570 1576 0583 0590 8598 66064

616 5628 9641 56484655 2661 86682

pay-ments 5

324 7368 1410 6442 6456 6489 8521 55482584 7

585 7587 9588 7592 2593 5595 6

610 7614 2624 2623 9625 5631 1634 3

Less:

contributionsfor socialinsurance

88 6104 5112 3120 1132 7149 3161 9172 91949

196 1195 9197 2199 5199 1200 1

209 0209 8211 3212 6212 7213 82150

personalincome e

2 215 82465 62 618 72 799 03052 13 271 33 469.43 714 74 003.7

4017 94 034.64064 14 112 34 12844 155 9

4 20404 23244 27654 30734 32054 352 34 391.1

1 The total ol wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation ofemployees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess ofwage accruals over wage disbursements.

* Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.4 With capital consumption adjustment.

5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.B Persona! income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other fa&or income,

and agricultural net interest.



DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEReal per capita disposable personal income was about unchanged in the second quarter of 1989.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)4,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)4,000

1,400

DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

1,400

DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME ^

CURRENT DOLLARS __V. _^— • ^

'

1 1 1

1981

1 1 1

1982

1 1 1

1983

r~--- '

! 1 11984

_— -

-r •

1 \982 DOLLAR'

< 1 11985

1 1 11986

r -— ' "

1 1 11987

1 1 11988

,-—

.....

1 1 11989

1 6,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATESSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE


Period

19801981...1982....1983..1984....1985...19861987...1988

1982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985: IV1986: IV

1987: m....IV

1988: Inm....IV

1989: In r....

Persona!income

Less:Personaltax andnontax

payments

iEquals:Disposable

personalincome

Less:Personaloutlays I

Equals:Personal

saving

Billions of dollars

2,258.52,520.92,670.82,838.63,108.73,325.33,526.23,777.64,064.5

340.5393.3409.3410.5440.2486.6512.9571.7586.6

1,918.02,127.62,261.42,428.12,668.62,838.73,013.33,205.93,477.8

1,781.11,968.12407.52,297.42^504.52,713.32^888.53,104.13^333.1

136.9159.4153.9130.6164.1125.4124.9101.8144.7

Dispos-able

personalincome in

1982dollars

(billions)

2,214.32,248.62^261.52,331.92469.82,542.82^635.32,676.62^793.2

Per capitadisposable personal

income

Currentdollars

1982dollars

Per capita personalconsumptionexpenditures

Currentdollars

1982dollars

Dollars

8,4219,2439,724

10,34011,25711,86112,46913,14014,116

9,722

9,7699^7249,930

10^41910^62510^90510,970Ili337

7,6078,3208,8189,515

10^25310,985Ili57612,34013,131

8,7838,7948,8189,1399,4899,839

10,12310,30310,546

Percentchange inreal percapita

disposablepersonalincome

Saving aspercent ofdisposablepersonalincome

Percent

— 1.1.5

— .52.14.92.02.6

.63.3

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

2,729.22,941.83,188.33,399.13,597.8

3,795.53,908.7

3,948.54,026.64,097.64,185.2

4,317.84,399.6

411.1413.9459.7499.6534.4

572.0589.2

572.2590.7585.9597.8

628.3652.6

2,318.12,527.92,728.62,899.53,063.4

3,223.53,319.4

3,376.43,435.93,511.73,587.4

3,689.53,747.0

2,174.92,382.52,571.32,787.72,961.4

3,149.93,177.6

3,244.43,301.93,362.13,424.0

3,483.83,549.9

143.1145.4157.3111.7102.0

73.6141.8

131.9134.0149.6163.4

205.7197.2

2,276.12,392.72,496.32,562.82,646.2

2,675.62,726.2

2,151.22,773.32,806.42,835.9

2,881.72,886.6

9,92910,72511,46712,06812,629

13,19613,552

13,15413,96614,23514,504

14,88415,081

9,74910,15110,49110,66710,909

10,95311,130

11,23211,27311,37711,466

11,62511,618

9,0689,825

10,47911,24011,825

12,51012,588

12,82413,02813,22913,439

13,64113,873

8,9049,2999,5879,935

10,214

10,38410,339

10,41310,51510,57310,624

10,65410,687

1.29.11.73.3

.3

5.66.6

3.11.53.73.2

5.7-.2

7.17.56.85.46.14.44.13.24.2

6.25.85.83.93.3

2.34.3

3.93.94.34.6

5.65.3

Population,includingArmedForcesabroad(thou-

sands) "

227,754230,182232,549234,829237,051239,322241,660243,985246,378

233,466235,707237,946240,257242,579

244,274244,936

245,416246,008246,685247,343

247,890248,456

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and person-al transfer payments to foreigners (net).

2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).


FARM INCOMEIn the first quarter of 1989, according to current estimates, gross farm income rose $18.8 billion (annual rate) andnet farm income rose $21.5 billion.

BULK

240200

160

120

80

DNS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO S

1, —

~ -̂ '

GRC/

3SS FARM INC(

" f

JMb

«__ -̂ *" "^

CALE)240200

160

120

80

An

40

20

10

40

20

10

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURECOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1980198119821983198419851986 ..19871988

1986: mIV ..

1987: InmIV

1988: Inm ..IV

1989- I

Income ot farm operators from {arming

Gross farm income

Total '

149.3166.4163.5153.0174.9166.2159.8169.8177.5

158.1162.6

173.6162.5168.9173.7

175.3182.5174.9177.1

195.9

Cash marketing receipts

Total

139.7141.7142.6136.6142.4144.0135.1138.1151.3

137.8137.7

134.9134.4146.5136.6144.2148.6160.2152.0

153.2

Livestock andproducts

68.069.270.369.473.069.871.576.278.8

77.373.0

73.377.079.675.1

81.775.278.280.2

83.0

Crops

71.772.572.367.169.574.263.661.972.5

60.564.7

61.657.466.961.5

62.573.482.071.8

70.2

Value ofinventorychanges 2

-6.36.5

— 1.410 96.32 4

-2.86

-4.3

2 3-1.9

Q

.1

4-1.9

-3.2-3.8

4 7-5.4

4.7

Productionexpenses

133.1139.4140.0140.4142.7134.0122.3123.5132.1

121.1120.7

120.3124.1125.0124.6126.7129.3135.4137.0

134.3

Net farm income

Currentdollars

16.126.923.512.732.232.337.546.345.4

37.041.9

53.438.443.949.048.753.239.540.1

61.6

1982 dollars *

18.828.623.512.229.929.132.939.437.4

32.336.4

46.032.831.341.340.844.132.432.6

49.2

1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cashincome, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.

2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at averageprices during the year.

3 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator.

NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households.

Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.


CORPORATE PROFITSIn the second quarter of 1989, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $20.4 billion(annual rate) and after-tax profits fell $9.3 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS360

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS360SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

v - f ~ \ PROFITS BEFORE TAX S

^ /"

~\\

\vV*"'S0

i

1981

\

\

S. ., , , r

\\

1 I 1

1982

/s

f

'' ^,../' s '

I I I1983

^

• -^ PR

' X

UNDISTI1 1 1

1984

r^]:>FITS AFTER T/

,._>-.

rA— '

TAX LIABILITY

IBUTED PROFI"

1 1 1

1985

S-^

tf

— -— -^

S

1 1 1

1986

'''' s — --

1 1 1

1987

/^

^-

S~~"

'-"

I 1 1

1988

\

-^

-X

-v

1 1 1

1989

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

19801981 .19821983...19841985...19861987...1988

1982- TV1983: TV1984- TV1985: TV1986- IV

1987: HIIV

1988: InmTV

1989- IH "

Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1

Total 2

194.0202.3159.2196.7234.2222.6228.3247.8281.8

150.7223.4224.6228.4226.1

261.5255.8

268.1276.4284.1298.7

279.7276.9

Domestic industries

Total

159.6173.8131.2166.6203.3191.4195.2208.7238.2

121.6190.7193.9193.6193.4

222.6211.8

225.7235.8239.0252.2

233.1228.5

Financial

21.016.511.818.113.022.832.030.529.8

18.715.513.626.028.6

30.229.9

27.729.731.630.1

29.327.9

Nonfinancial

Total 3

138.6157.3119.4148.5190.3168.6163.2178.2208.4

102.9175.2180.3167.6164.8

192.4181.9

198.0206.1207.3222.1

203.9200.6

Manufac-turing

77.188.558.070.188.879.759.576.698.4

46.888.679.883.864.8

87.384.5

94.698.295.1

105.5

96.5

Whole-sale and

retailtrade

21.632.534.638.951.244.144.141.140.1

33.643.151.838.541.0

43.241.2

42.237.339.241.8

34.1

Profitsbefore tax

237.1226.5169.6207.6240.0224.3221.6266.7306.8

164.1231.5226.1235.0234.1

281.0276.2

288.8305.3314.4318.8

318.0297.6

Taxliability

84.881.163.177.293.996.4

106.3124.7137.9

59.888.187.099.8

113.1

132.7127.3

129.0138.4141.2143.2

144.4133.3

Profits after tax

Total

152.3145.4106.5130.4146.1127.8115.3142.0168.9

104.3143.4139.2135.2121.0

148.3148.9

159.9166.9173.2175.6

173.6164.3

Dividends

54.763.666.971.579.083.391.398.7

110.4

68.573.980.884.093.6

100.0102.8

105.7108.6112.2115.2

118.5120.9

Undistrib-uted

profits

97.681.839.658.967.044.624.043.358.5

35.869.558.451.227.4

48.346.1

54.258.361.160.4

55.143.4

Inventoryvaluation

adjustment

-43.1-24.2-10.4-10.9-5.8-1.7

6.7-18.9-25.0

-13.4-8.1-1.6-6.6-8.0

-19.4-20.4

-20.7-28.8-30.4— 20.1

-38.3r-20.7

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.

3 Includes industries not shown separately.



GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTAccording to revised estimates for the second quarter of 1989, nonresidential fixed investment rose $9.5 billion(annual rate) and residential investment fell $4.0 billion. There was a $27.3 billion increase in inventories, followingan increase of $27.7 billion in the first quarter of 1989.


BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

-100


GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC /^\INVFSTMFNT /

/

/>l

--'"""

-

1 1 11981

"̂ 1""*----..

_.*-

\f

1 1 1

1982

/^ S*

,*~~

+>*

/f*

,/""

\ \ \

1983

r—^\^}

NFl>

CHA

^^%

1 1 I1984

ONRESIDENTI/ED INVESTMEh

— \~."

' Fl>

NGE IN BUSININVENTORIES

1 1 1

1985

^— 1

1•JT

RESIDENTIAL(ED INVESTMEh

V

ESS

'V

i i i1986

"^

..- '

41

~~

X%.

r— --/

1 1 11987

^~l

-"•'"

1 1 11988

'--"'

—

-

—

—

— - -

-

..

1 1 11989

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

1980198119821983198419851986..19871988

1982: IV1983: IV1984: IV1985- IV1986- IV

1987: TTTIV

1988- ITJmIV

1989: IH r

Grossprivate

domesticinvestment

437.0515.5447.3502.3664.8643.1659.4699.9750.3

409.6579.8661.8654.1648.8

692.8749.7

728.8748.4771.1752.8

769.6174.1

Fixed investment

Total

445.3491.5471.8509.4597.1631.8652.5670.6719.6

469.5548.8616.8646.8660.9

683.2686.3

698.7719.1726.5734.1

742.0141.4

Nonresidential

Total

322.8369.2366.7356.9416.0442.9435.2444.3487.2

354.9383.9435.0451.3435.8

457.0458.6

472.7487.1493.2495.8

503.1512.6

Structures

113.9138.5143.3124.0141.1153.2139.0133.8140.3

137.6127.4146.6155.9133.7

137.3138.9

137.1139.9142.0142.5

144.7142.8

Producers'durable

equipment

208.9230.7223.4232.8274.9289.7296.2310.5346.8

217.3256.5288.4295.5302.2

319.8319.7

335.6347.2351.3353.3

358.5869.8

Residential

122.5122.3105.1152.5181.1188.8217.3226.4232.4

114.7164.9181.8195.5225.1

226.2227.7

226.1232.1233.2238.4

238.8234.8

Change in businessinventories

Total

8324.0245

-7.167.711.36.9

29.330.6

-59.931.045.0

7.2-12.2

9.563.3

30.029.344.618.7

27.721.3

Nonfarm

-2.418.3

-23.1.4

60.514.68.6

30.534.2

-51.121.341.323.7

-8.0

14.061.3

24.230.441.540.8

19.123.8



EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTAccording to the Commerce Department April-May survey, business spending for new plant and equipment isexpected to rise 9.9 percent in 1989, following a rise of 10.3 percent in 1988.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

500

400

300

200

40 40

1981

J/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY_£/'SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOWSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

1980....19811982....198319841985....19861987....19881989 4 .

1987: mIV

1988: Ininrv

1989- In 4

m4

IV4

Industries surveyed quarterly

Allindus-tries

282.80315.22310.58304.78354.44387.13379.47389.67429.67472.08

394.54406.82

412.02426.94436.01443.71

457.64467.50478.79484.38

Manufacturing

Total

112.33126.54120.68116.20138.82153.48142.69145.90165.70179.35

148.20152.21

158.60161.69168.91173.61"

175.83177.10182.70181.79

Dura-ble

goods

55.3659.8155.3553.0866.2473.2769.1471.0178.1282.13

71.9672.28

75.7076.8779.4880.42

81.7180.2184.0882.54

Non-durablegoods

56.9666.7365.3363.1272.5880.2173.5674.8887.5897.22

76.2479.92

82.9084.8289.4393.18

94.1296.8998.6199.25

Nonmanufacturing

Total 1

170.47188.68189.89188.58215.61233.65236.78243.78263.97292.72

246.34254.61

253.43265.25267.10270.11

281.81290.40296.09302.59

Mining

15.9921.3920.0515.1916.8615.8811.2211.3912.6712.00

11.8112.32

12.5913.2612.4712.35

12.1213.0812.2120.60

Trans-portation

16.6015.8414.7913.9716.5218.0218.8018.8521.3524.86

19.1919.34

20.4320.7222.1722.10

23.2423.1125.8527.24

Publicutilities

37.7441.2145.4344.9647.4848.8146.3844.8846.5150.77

45.2946.38

44.6145.4346.7049.27

50.2651.4250.1853.24

Com-mercial

andother

100.14110.24109.63114.45134.75150.94160.38168.65183.44205.09

170.05176.56

175.79185.83185.76186.38

196.20202.79207.86213.51

Addenda

Totalnon-farmbusi-ness2

314.47349.26347.47343.35398.99431.94427.23440.66482.40

Manu-facturing

112.33126.54120.68116.20138.82153.48142.69145.90165.70179 35

148.20152.21

158.60161.69168.91173.61

175.83177.10182.70181.79

Nonmanufacturing

Total

202.15222.72226.79227.15260.16278.46284.54294.77316.70

Sur-veyedquar-terly

170.47188.68189.89188.58215.61233.65236.78243.78263.97292.72

246.34254.61

253.43265.25267.10270.11

281.81290.40296.09302.59

Sur-veyed

annual-lyS

31.6834.0436.8938.5644.5544.8147.7550.9952.73

1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annu-ally") for data for these industries.

2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.

3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;social services and membership organizations; and real estate.

4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in April-May 1989, corrected for biases.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

10


EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESIn July, civilian employment fell 82,000 and unemployment fell 64,000.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*124

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

124

120

116

112

108

104

100

96

X-

f*

12

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

120

116

112

108

104

100

96

-^-•*,

12

8

4

0

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

CIVILIAN "EMPLOYMENT

UNEMPLOYMENT

1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 i 1 1

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

' ! 6 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

Period

1980198119821983198419851986'19871988

1988:JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1989:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly

Noninstitu-tional

populationincludingresidentArmedForcesNSA

169,349171,775173,939175,891178,080179,912182,293184,490186,322

186,402186,522186,666186,801186,949187,098

187,340187,461187,581187,708187,854187,995188,149

Resi-dent

ArmedForcesNSA

1,6041,6451,6681,6761,6971,7061,7061,7371,709

1,6731,6921,7041,6871,7051,696

1,6961,6841,6841,6841,6731,6661,666

Labor forceincludingresidentArmedForces

108,544110,315111,872113,226115,241117,167119,540121,602123,378

123,331123,692123,688123,778124,215124,259

125,124124,865124,948125,343125,283125,768125,622

Employ-ment

includingresidentArmedForces

100,907102,042101,194102,510106,702108,856111,303114,177116,677

116,707116,895117,074117,260117,652117,705

118,407118,537118,820118,797118,888119,207119,125

Civilianlabor force

106,940108,670110,204111,550113,544115,461117,834119,865121,669

121,658122,000121,984122,091122,510122,563

123,428123,181123,264123,659123,610124,102123,956

Civilian employment

Total

99,303100,39799,526

100,834105,005107,150109,597112,440114,968

115,034115,203115,370115,573115,947116,009

116,711116,853117,136117,113117,215117,541117,459

Agricul-tural

3,3643,3683,4013,3833,3213,1793,1633,2083,169

3,0603,1423,1763,2383,2383,193

3,3003,2233,2063,1043,1123,0963,219

Nonagricultural

Total

95,93897,03096,12597,450

101,685103,971106,434109,232111,800

111,974112,061112,194112,335112,709112,816

113,411113,630113,930114,009114,102114,445114,240

Part timefor

economicreasons l

4,0644,4995,8525,9975,5125,3345,3455,1224,965

5,1024,9724,8624,7274,8195,033

4,8374,6974,7094,9304,6094,8014,505

Unemployment

Total

7,6378,273

10,67810,7178,5398,3128,2377,4256,701

6,6246,7976,6146,5186,5636,554

6,7166,3286,1286,5466,3956,5616,497

15weeks

andover

1,8712,2853,4854,2102,7372,3052,2321,9831,610

1,6191,6361,5681,5541,5021,495

1,5121,3041,3101,4261,3131,2581,472

Civilian

Laborforce

partici-pationrate(per-

cent) 2

63.863.964.064.064.464.865.365.665.9

65.966.066.066.066.166.1

66.566.366.366.566.466.666.5

Employ-ment/

populationratio(per-

cent) 2

59.259.057.857.959.560.160.761.562.3

62.362.362.462.462.662.6

62.962.963.063.063.063.163.0

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full- 'Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change wtime work, etc. estimation procedures.

2 Civilian labor force (or employment) aa percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11


SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATESIn July, the overall unemployment rate was unchanged, at 5.2 percent, and the civilian unemployment rate fellslightly, to 5.2 percent.

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

10

'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1989


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

198019811982 ..198319841985198619871988

1988: JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1989: JanFebMarAprMayJune....July

Unem-ploy-mentrate,all

work-ers *

7.07.59.59.57.47.16.96.15.4

5.45.55.35.35.35.3

5.45.14.95.25.15.25.2

Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)

Allcivilianwork-

ers

7.17.69.79.67.57.27.06.25.5

5.45.65.45.35.45.3

5.45.15.05.35.25.35.2

By sex and age

Men20 yearsand over

5.96.38.88.96.66.26.15.44.8

4.54.94.64.64.84.7

4.64.54.24.64.34.34.3

Women20 years

andover

6.46.88.38.16.86.66.25.44.9

5.04.84.84.74.74.7

4.74.54.64.74.84.95.0

Bothsexes16-19years

17.819.623.222.418.918.618.316.915.3

15.115.415.515.014.114.8

16.414.813.714.415.215.614.7

By race

White

6.36.78.68.46.56.26.05.34.7

4.74.94.74.64.64.6

4.64.34.24.64.44.54.6

Blackand

other

13.114.217.317.814.413.713.111.610.4

10.110.09.59.8

10.010.0

10.610.69.89.69.5

10.39.6

Black

14.315.618.919.515.915.114.513.011.7

11.511.410.911.211.211.6

12.011.910.910.811.011.910.9

By selected groups

Experi-enced

wage andsalary

workers

6.97.39.39.27.16.86.65.85.2

5.15.35.15.05.15.0

5.24.84.75.14.95.05.1

Marriedmen,

spousepresent

4.24.36.56.54.64.34.43.93.3

3.13.43.13.13.33.1

3.13.12.93.22.92.82.9

Womenwho

maintainfamilies

9.210.411.712.210.310.49.89.28.1

8.57.58.17.97.78.2

8.08.07.97.68.37.98.7

Full-time

workers

6.97.39.69.57.26.86.65.85.2

5.05.35.15.05.05.1

5.04.84.85.04.84.84.9

Part-time

workers

8.89.4

10.510.49.39.39.18.47.6

8.07.47.47.47.17.0

7.97.36.27.26.97.77.2

Laborforce

time lost(per-

cent) 2

7.98.5

11.010.98.68.17.97.16.3

6.46.46.36.16.26.3

6.25.95.86.05.96.16.0

1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons fta per-

cent of potentially available labor force hours.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

12


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENTINSURANCE PROGRAMSIn July, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5-14 weeksfell and the percentages for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. Both the mean and the medianduration of unemployment rose.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION

70

40

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

70

30 •=.

20

10 -

60

- 50

40

— 30

20

10

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

1989 1985

JOB LOSERS

REENTRANTS

JOB LEAVERS

NEW ENTRANTS

1986 1987 1988 1989

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988

1988- July

SeptOctNovDec

1989: JanFebMar

May

July

Unemploy-ment

(thousands)

7,6378,273

10,67810,7178,5398,3128,2377,4256,701

6,6246,7976,6146,5186,5636,554

6,7166,3286,1286,5466,3956,5616,497

Duration of unemployment

Percent distribution

Lessthan

5weeks

43.141.736.433.339.242.141.943.746.0

44.946.847.447.447.646.2

47.050.649.447.247.750.448.1

5-14weeks

32.330.731.027.428.730.231.029.630.0

30.729.028.828.529.531.1

30.729.129.431.131.730.429.4

15-26weeks

13.813.616.015.412,912.312.712.712.0

12.412.311.812.212.011.5

11.210.410.510.511.010.012.9

27weeks

andover

10.714.016.623.919.115.414.414.012.1

11.911.912.111.910.911.2

11.110.010.711.39.69.19.6

Number ofweeks

Aver-age

(mean)

11.913.715.620.018.215.615.014.513.5

13.513.513.513.412.612.8

12.712.112.412.711.811.112.0

Medi-an

6.56.98.7

10.17.96.86.96.55.9

6.25.95.75.75.65.8

5.75.35.45.45.35.55.6

Reason for unemployment:percent distribution

Joblosers

51.751.658.758.451.849.848.948.046.1

46.146.246.745.946.246.5

46.445.246.045.742.742.044.3

Jobleav-ers

11.711.27.97.79.6

10.612.313.014.7

13.814.614.915.314.715.1

14.715.514.415.017.515.515.3

Reen-trants

25.225.422.322.525.627.126.226.627.0

28.127.326.827.226.926.2

27.327.328.129.029.131.229.4

Newentrants

11.411.911.111.313.012.512.512.412.2

11.911.911.511.612.212.1

11.612.011.610.310.711.311.0

Stateprograms

Insuredunem-

ployment

Initialclaims

Insuredunem-

ployment,all

regularprograms(unadjust-

ed)1

Weekly average, thousands

3,3503,0474,0613,3962,4762,6112,6502,3322,056

2,0822,0692,0251,9721,9892,032

2,0612,1052,1432,1052,0632,1342,216

488460583438377396378328306

327305293296301309

293309323300317335339

3,8373,4104,5943,7752,5612,6932,7462,4012,125

2,0521,9141,7341,6771,8572,205

2,6852,6952,5672,2211,9601,941

1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-service-men (OCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State ex-tended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adminis-tration).

13


NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 169,000 in July.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*110

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

100 -

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20 fyiiiilimi1985

ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS

SERVICE-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

GOODS-PRODUCINGINDUSTRIES

1986 1987 1988Illlllllllll

26

24

22

20

18

^SERVICES

V1

.-'"1^.-^'

-

^-^•jwrifflfi

^

Rl

~

"

'iTfi MM 1 1 1

;TAIL TRADE

\ — r-

f+**

, — •OVERNMEN

n*,H

^s"

—

—

—

r

i| mill nit

1989 1985

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR

1989


[Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted]_

Period

19801981 ....1982198319841985198619871988

1988: July....Aug....Sept....OctNov....Dec

1989: JanFebMarAprMay r..June r.July".

Totalnonagri-culturalemploy-

ment

90,40691,15689,56690,20094,49697^51999,525

102,200105,584

105,768105,954106,207106,475106,824107,097

107,442107,711107,888108,101108,310108,560108,729

Goods-producing industries

Total 2

25,65825,49723',81323,33424,72724^85924,55824,70825,249

25,32325,30325,31325,38425,46025,513

25,62625,62925,64625,67125,67225,65125,680

Con-struction

4,3464,188s',9053,9484,3834^6734*8164,967s',125

5,1505,1535,1635,1625,1915,213

5,2675,2705,2525,2795,2835,2815,318

Manufacturing

Total

20,28520,17018J8118,43419,37819^26018*96519,02419',403

19,44819,42519,43119,50519,55719,589

19,64819,64819,68019,67219,66719,65519,658

Durablegoo s

12,18712,10911*03910,73211,50511,49011*23011,19411*437

11,47511,46211,46411,50911,54511,565

11,60511,59411,60411,60011,59411,56711,549

Nondur-able

goods

8,0988,0617*.7417,7027,8737,7707*,7347,8307*967

7,9737,9637,9677,9968,0128,024

8,0438,0548,0768,0728,0738,0888,109

Service-producing industries

Total

64,74865,65965,75366,86669 76972,66074*,96777,4928o',335

80,44580,65180,89481,09181,36481,584

81,81682,08282,24282,43082,63882,90983,049

Trans-portation

andpublic

utilities

5,1465,165

4,9545 1595,2385J2555,3725',548

5,5575,5725,5815,5965,6165,634

5,6545,6675,6665,6825,7005,7165,739

Whole-sale

trade

5,2755,3585*.2785,2685 5555,7175,1535,8446J029

6,0386,0516,0716,0866,1046,125

6,1466,1716,1976,2066,2226,2296,234

Be tailtrade

15,03515,18915,17915,61316 54517,35617*93018,483

19,13919,18219,18819,22919,28219,328

19,40719,46019,48819,48919,52819,54819,600

Finance,insur-ance,

and realestate

5,1605,2985*3415,4685,6895,9556*2836,547

6,6786,6866,6956,7106,7266,744

6,7466,7636,7746,7766,7906,8016,812

Services

17,89018,61919*03619,69420,79722,00023*05324,23625*600

25,68325,78425,88825,98626,11126,280

26,31826,43426,52026,65126,71126,92326,997

Government

Total

16,24116,03115,'83715,86916,02416*39416*,69317,01011 ',31 2

17,35017,37617,47117,48417,52511,523

17,54517,58717,59717,62617,68717,69217,667

Federal

2,8662,7722*7392,7742,8072,8752*8992,943

2,9582,9672,9852,9862,9832,981

2,9782,9822,9822,9822,9992,9942,976

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments whoreceived pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes propri-etors, self-employed persona, domestic servants, and personnel of t\ie Armed forces. Total derivedfrom this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian laborforce, shown on p, 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad

weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of theworking-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employingestablishments.

2 Includes mining, not shown separately.


14


AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLYEARNINGS

PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1980 . . ..19811982198319841985198619871988

1988: July

SeptOctNovDec

1989: JanFebMar

May '

July"

Average weekly hours

Totalprivate

nonagri-eultural }

35.335.234.835.035.234.934.834.834.7

34.834.634.734.834.734.7

34.834.634.734.934.634.634.9

Manufacturing

Total

39.739.838.940.140.740.540.741.041.1

41.141.041.141.241.241.0

41.141.141.041.341.041.041.0

Overtime

2.82.82.33.03.43.33.43.73.9

3.93.93.94.03.93.9

3.93.94.03.93.83.83.9

Average gross hourlyearnings

Totalprivate

nonagri-cultural l

$6.667.257.688.028.328.578.768.989.29

9.319.329.379.439.429.45

9.499.529.549.619.609.629.70

Manufac-turing

$7.277.998.498.839,199.549.739.91

10.18

10.1810.2110.2510.2910.3010.31

10.3310.3710.4010.4010.4210.4510.48

Average gross weekly earnings

Total privatenonagricultural 1

Currentdollars

$235.10255.20267.26280.70292.86299.09304.85312.50322.36323.99322.47325.14328.16326.87327.92

330.25329.39331.04335.39332.16332.85338.53

1977dollars "

$172.74170.13168.09171.26172.78170.42171.07169.28167.81168.39166.82167.68168.55167.28167.39

167.55166.44166.44167.53165.01165.10167.51

Current dollars

Manufac-turing

$288.62318.00330.26354.08374.03386.37396.01406.31418.40418.40418.61421.28423.95424.36422.71424.56426.21426.40429.52427.22428.45429.68

Construc-tion

$367.78399.26426.82442.97458.51464.46466.75480.44493.08

493.29492.53494.05499.66503.04497.07496.89498.39501.23505.21494.17497.79512.26

Retailtrade

$147.38158.03163.85171.05174.33174.64176.08178.70183.62

185.18183.57185.08186.30185.60187.11

187.40186.41186.98189.44187.56188.14190.68

Percent change from ayear earlier, total

privatenonagricultural 3

Currentdollars

6.98.54.75.04.32.11.92.53.2

4.12.84.24.13.33.9

4.23.54.14.53.33.54.2

1977dollars

-5.8-1.5-1.2

1.9.9

-1.4.4

-1.0-.9

.1j 2

-.0-.1-.9-.5

-.3-1.2-.8-.7

-2.0-1.6-.9

1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical

workers (on a 1977 = 100 base).

3 Based on seasonally unadjusted data.


EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY[Not seasonally adjusted]

Period

1980: Dec1981: Dec....1982: Dec1983: Dec....1984: Dec1985: Dec....1986: Dec1987: Dec....1988: Dec....

1986: MarJune...SeptDec....

1987: Mar....June . . .Sept . . . .Dec....

1988: MarJuneSept...Dec

1989: Mar....June

Index (June 1981 = 100)

Totalcompensa-

tion

94.7104.0110.7117.0122.7127.5131.6136.0142.6

128.9129.0130.8131.6

132.9133.8135.1136.0

138.1139.8141.2142.6

144.4146.1

Wages andsalaries

95.4103.8110.3115.8120.6125.6129.5133.8139.3

126.8129.9128.8129.5

130.8131.7133.0133.8

135.1136.6137.9139.3

140.8142.2

Benefits 1

93.0104.3111.7120.0127.9132.4136.9141.7151.3

134.2134.8136.1136.9

138.1139.3140.3141.7

146.1148.2149.7151.3

154.0156.5

Percent change from

3 months earlier

Totalcompensa-

tion

2.12.01.31.21.3.6.6.7

1.0

1.1.8.7.6

1.0.7

1.0.7

1.51.21.01.0

1.31.2

Wages andsalaries

2.01.81.21.11.2.6.5.6

1.0

1.0.9.7.5

1.0.7

1.0.6

1.01.11.01.0

1.11.0

Benefits *

2.22.31.51.31.4.5.6

1.01.1

1.4.4

1.0.6

.9

.9

.71.0

3.11.41.01.1

1.81.6

12 months earlier

Totalcompensa-

tion

9.89.86.45.74.93.93.23.34.9

3.83.83.23.2

3.13.03.33.3

3.94.54.54.9

4.64.5

Wages andsalaries

9.08.86.35.04.14.13.13.34.1

3.93.73.13.1

3.23.03.33.3

3.33.73.74.1

4.24.1

Benefits *

11.812.27.17.46.63.53.43.56.8

3.23.53.33.4

2.93.33.13.5

5.86.46.76.8

5.45.6

1 Employer costs for employee benefits.NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the

influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.

Data exclude farm and household workers.


15


PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR

Period

198019811982 .. .19831984

1985198619871988

1982: IV r....1983: IV r....1984: IV r....1985: IVr....

1986: m T....IV '....

1987: I r

n r.mr....IV r....

1988: I 'n r.m r....IV r....

1989: I r

HP

19801981198219831984

1985198619871988 ...

1982: IV T ....1983: IV r ....1984: IV r ....1985: IV r....

1986: HIr....IV r ....

1987: I r

n r.mr....ivr

1988: Ir

nr.nir

IV

1989: Ir

n p

Output per hour ofall persons

Businesssector

Nonfarmbusinesssector

Output *

Businesssector


Hours of allpersons 2

Businesssector

Nonfarmbusiness

sector

Compensation perhour 3

Businesssector


Real compensationper hour 4

Businesssector


Unit labor costs

Businesssector


Implicit pricedeflator 5

Businesssector


1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted

99.4101.0100.2102.6105.2

107.3109.8111.1113.1

100.9103.5105.7108.4

109.6109.8

109.9110.7111.7112.5

113.3112.7113.6113.6

113.9114.2

99.0100.099.1

102.0104.2

105.6107.7108.9111.2

99.5103.0104.5106.2

107.5107.6

107.7108.6109.5110.3

111.1110.7111.6112.1

111.8111.8

106.7108.9105.5109.9119.2

124.2128.0133.4140.0

105.0113.6120.8125.9

127.7128.9

130.4132.2134.4136.7

138.2139.3140.7141.9

143.6144.0

106.7108.5104.9110.1119.2

123.9127.6133.1140.3

104.2114.1120.7125.5

127.2128.4

130.0132.0134.1136.4

138.0139.5141.1142.8

143.6144.2

107.3107.9105.3107.2113.3

115.7116.6120.1123.8

104.1109.7114.3116.2

116.5117.4

118.6119.5120.3121.5

122.0123.6123.9124.9

126.0126.2

107.8108.5105.9108.0114.4

117.4118.4122.2126.2

104.7110.8115.5118.1

118.3119.3

120.7121.6122.4123.7

124.3126.1126.4127.3

128.5129.0

131.8144.1154.9160.8167.4

174.8183.8191.0200.4

158.2163.2169.9178.6

185.1187.4

188.2189.5191.8195.2

196.5199.3202.2204.8

207.2210.5

131.6144.0154.7160.8167.2

174.0182.9189.8198.9

158.0162.9169.6177.5

184.1186.4

187.0188.3190.5193.9

195.1197.8200.5203.3

205.7208.5

97.096.197.397.897.6

98.4101.7101.9102.7

97.997.897.899.3

102.2102.8

101.9101.4101.7102.6

102.3102.7102.9103.1

103.0103.0

96.796.097.197.897.5

98.0101.1101.2101.9

97.897.697.698.7

101.7102.2

101.3100.7101.0101.9

101.6101.9102.1102.4

102.3102.0

132.6142.7154.5156.7159.1

162.8167.5171.9177.2

156.8157.7160.7164.9

168.9170.6

171.2171.3171.6173.5

173.5176.9178.1180.2

181.9184.4

132.9144.0156.1157.6160.4

164.9169.8174.2178.8

158.7158.2162.3167.1

171.2173.2

173.6173.4173.9175.8

175.7178.7179.6181.3

184.1186.4

127.6139.8148.1153.0158.2

162.2165.6170.0174.9

150.2155.2159.8163.7

166.7167.1

168.2169.6170.7171.3

171.9174.1175.8177.9

179.4181.5

127.8140.3149.2154.3159.0

163.8167.6172.0176.5

151.4156.2161.0165.5

168.8169.2

170.3171.4172.6173.4

173.8175.6177.0179.6

180.8182.9

Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates

-0.31.5

-.72.42.6

2.02.31.21.8

2.63.31.51.5

-1.6.8

.52.63.92.9

2.7-2.0

3.1.2

1.0.9

-0.41.1

-.93.02.1

1.32.01.12.1

2.01.6.9.8

-1.7.3

.43.33.62.7

3.0-1.5

3.41.9

-1.3.2

-1.12.13 14.28.4

4.23.14.24.9

-.510.43.53.6

.84.0

4.75.66.77.1

4.43.34.03.4

4.81.4

1 21.7

-3.35.08.3

3.93.04.45.4

-1.29.83.13.5

.73.7

5.26.16.67.0

4.84.44.64.8

2.41.7

-0.8.6

-2.41.85.7

2.2.8

3.03.1

-3.06.82.02.1

2.53.2

4.32.92.74.1

1.75.4

.93.2

3.8.4

0 7.6

-2.42.06.0

2.6.9

3.23.2

-3.18.12.22.7

2.53.4

4.82.82.94.2

1.85.91.22.8

3.81.5

10.59.37.53.84.1

4.45.23.94.9

4.15.73.56.3

4.65.0

1.92.74.87.4

2.85.95.85.2

4.86.6

10.59.57.44.03.9

4.15.13.74.8

4.64.43.55.8

4.65.0

1.42.74.87.3

2.75.55.55.9

4.85.5

2 6-.91.2

.6-.2

.83.3

.2

.8

2.81.6.0

2.1

2.22.1

-3.3-2.0

1.13.6

-.81.31.0.7

-.6.3

2 67

1.1.7

-.4

.53.2.1.7

3.3.3.0

1.6

2.22.1

-3.8-2.1

1.13.5

O

.9

.81.4

-.6- .9

10.97.78.31.41.5

2.32.82.63.1

1.52.32.04.8

6.44.2

1.4.1.9

4.3

.18.12.65.0

3.75.7

11.08.38.41.01.8

2.83.02.62.7

2.62.82.65.0

6.54.7

1.0-.61.24.5

-.37.12.03.9

6.25.2

9.09.65.93.33.3

2.52.12.62.9

2.44.82.72.6

4.91.0

2.53.42.61.4

1.55.14.14.8

3.34.9

9.79.76.33.53.0

3.02.32.62.7

3.03.13.32.1

5.11.0

2.82.53.01.7

1.04.33.25.9

2.84.8

1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars.2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family

workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private

benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers.5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

NOTE,—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may

differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.Data reflect revisions beginning 1986 of GNP and related items published July 27, 1989. In

addition, hours of labor input have been redefined as hours at the work site (rather than hours paid),affecting all labor input series back to 1947 (1958 for nonfmaneial institutions); the labor inputseries also reflect the regular benchmarking of nonagricultural establishment data in June 1989.


16


PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATIONIndustrial production rose in July and capacity utilization was unchanged; both had declined in June and May.

INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)

160

140

120

100

160

140

120

100

140

120

100

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

DURABLE'

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)240

FINAL PRODUCTS

SPACE

r -

^-"'

«— »_ I—',/"* -"-„ „ ._ .,

Illllllllll

BUSINESSEQUIPMENT

— C"CONSUMER

GOODS

Illllllllll

EQUIPMENT"-' ..\ .-

— ̂

r^.-'-"'

i iMiinii i

^-

IIIUllllll

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

PERCENT*100

90

80

70

1985•SEASONAUY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1989

CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE(TOTAL INDUSTRY)

M H

Illllllllll1985

"̂ 1

llll|l|l||l

1986

^~~\

Illllllllll1987

_- — „ —

Illllllllll1988

-

Illllllllll1989


[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1977 proportion

198019811982198319841985198619871988 . . .

1988: July

SeptOctNovDec

1989- JanFebMarApr r

May r ..June r.July p

Totalindustrial

production

Index,1977 = 100

100.0108.6111.0103.1109.2121.4123.7125.1129.8137.2

138.0138.5138.6139.4139.9140.4

140.8140.5140.7141.7141.6141.4141.7

Percentchange

from yearearlier

-1.92.2

-7.15.9

11.21.91.13.85.7

5.75.55.75.25.14.9

4.84.54.44.74.03.62.7

Industry production indexes, 1977 = 100

Manufacturing

Total

84.21108.2110.5102.2110.2123.4126.4129.1134.7142.7

143.6144.0144.4145.3145.8146.3

147.2146.8147.0148.0148.0148.1148.3

Durable

49.10109.1111.199.9

107.7124.2127.6128.4133.1141.9

142.9143.2143.8144.6145.2145.7

146.2145.9145.8146.9146.9146.8146.7

Nondurable

35.11107.0109.7105.5113.7122.3124.6130.1136.8143.9

144.6145.1145.3146.3146.7147.1

148.5148.1148.6149.6149.6149.9150.6

Mining

9.83112.4117.5109.3102.9111.1108.9100.4100.7103.4

104.3103.8103.7103.1104.7104.9

103.0100.9101.5102.4101.6100.4100.7

Utilities

5.96107.3107.1104.8105.2110.7111.1108.5110.3114.3

114.4117.8113.0113.9113.7115.4

114.0116.5117.5117.1116.3114.9115.8

Capacity utilizationrate, percent *

Totalindustry

80.979.972.174.681.080.479.480.783.3

83.783.883.784.084.184.3

84.383.983.884.283.983.683.6

Manufac-turing

79.378.270.373.980.580.179.781.183.5

84.084.084.084.384.484.4

84.784.384.184.584.284.083.9

1 Output as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

17


INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS ANDSELECTED MANUFACTURES

[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1980198119821983198419851986 .19871988.

1988: July

SeptOctNovDec

1989- JanFebMarApr r

May r

July"

Products

Final products

Total

44.77112.2115.2109.5114.7127.3131.0132.5136.8144.3

145.0145.8145.8146.4146.8147.7

148.2148.6148.9150.2150.5150.7150.6

Consumer goods

Total

25.52102.7104.1101.4109.3118.0119.8124.0127.8133.9

134.2135.0134.8136.4136.8138.2

138.5138.7138.4139.5139.3139.4138.9

Durablegoods

6.8988.489.782.998.5

112.2112.5115.6120.2125.3

125.3125.7126.3129.3129.2131.9

131.5131.6130.1132.2131.2130.5127.2

Nondura-ble goods

18.63108.1109.3108.3113.3120.1122.5127.1130.6137.1

137.5138.5138.0139.0139.7140.5

141.1141.4141.4142.2142.2142.7143.3

Equipment

Total '

19.25124.7129.9120.2121.7139.6145.8143.6148.9158.2

159.4160.1160.4159.7159.9160.4

161.1161.6162.8164.3168.5165.5166.0

Business

14.34125.1127.6113.6115.4134.2140.2139.5144.5157.6

159.3160.2160.8160.2161.2162.6

163.8165.0166.3167.8168.9168.9169.3

Defenseand

spaceequip-ment

3.67115.4119.8133.0143.1156.4171.4182.0188.9185.8

184.9184.9184.5184.0182.2180.5

180.0179.3178.7179.9180.7181.1181.7

Intermediate products

Total

12. 94106.9107.3101.7111.2124.7129.3136.2143.4151.5

151.6152.3152.9154.0154.2155.0

156.6155.1156.1156.5156.2156.1156.4

Con-structionsupplies

5.95100.6

98.688.3

100.6114.0119.2126.4131.5138.6

138.4138.1138.4140.0140.7141.4

142.3139.5139.3140.2139.3139.8139.3

Busi-nesssup-plies

6.99112.3114.7113.1120.3133.8137.9144.6153.5162.5

162.8164.4165.2165.9165.7166.7

168.8168.4170.4170.4170.6170.0

Materials

Total

42.28105.3107.7

96.7102.8114.2114.3113.8118.2125.2

126.4126.5126.5127.5128.3128.3

128.1127.4127.3128.2127.7127.2127.8

Ener-gy

11.69105.5104.7101.2

98.4103.9103.3

99.799.8

101.5

102.7103.2101.5101.3102.3102.6

100.5100.5101.0101.7100.8

98.999.1

1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.


Period

1977 proportion198019811982198319841985198619871988.

1988: July..AueSept.OctNovDec

1989: JanFebMar .Apr T

May r

June r

July11

Durable manufactures

Primary metals

Total

5.3390.495.065.873.082.380.475.181.389.2

91.590.893.194.292.790.0

93.291.188.490.186.987.388 8

Iron andsteel

3.4986.392.557.566.173.470.463.470.678.1

80.278.981.483.180.877.6

82.279.175.977.073.2ISA

Fabri-catedmetal

products

6.46101.8101.6

86.689.1

102.6107.1108.0111.0120.9

121.7122.1122.5122.6124.6125.1

124.5124.5123.8123.1124.7124.6124.9

Non-electricalmachin-

ery

9.54123.3129.8115.6118.3141.8146.2145.0152.7170.8

173.1174.1174.8173.8175.4177.8

178.7180.8183.0184.7186.5186.6187.6

Electricalmachin-

ery

7.15130.3134.1128.4143.8170.5168.3165.7172.3180.1

181.5182.2181.8183.0182.2180.9

180.9181.7181.6182.2181.1181.1180.9

Transportationequipment

Total

9.1396.995.187.699.2

112.2122.8127.5129.2132.1

131.9131.8132.7134.8135.2136.8

136.7136.4134.8136.4135.5134.3132.0

Motorvehicles

andparts

5.2571.171.666.885.8

104.4111.9111.5111.8117.2

116.6117.5118.5121.7122.9125.5

124.9123.4120.4122.0119.7116.5110.8

Lumberand

products

2.3092.990.182.8

100.2109.1114.3124.1130.3137.3

136.6133.8133.5137.5139.4143.0

139.9132.8133.4135.1134.7135.6

Nondurable manufactures

Appar-el

prod-ucts

2.7997.396.187.395.3

102.7100.4103.1107.4109.1

109.4108.9109.9109.5110.1108.8

110.2110.2109.9111.3111.6

ingandpub-

lishing

4.54115.1118.6120.2129.8146.5151.4160.9172.1184.2

184.9186.7188.0188.1188.5188.0

193.0194.6198.5200.1199.4199.5200 2

Chemi-calsand

prod-ucts

8.05106.4112.6103.8114.0121.6126.4132.0140.2151.9

153.4154.8155.3156.7157.5158.1

159.0158.5159.2159.3158.4159.1

Foods

7.96111.4113.7114.9120.4126.9130.5134.4137.8142.7

143.3143.3143.2144.0145.7145.8

146.6146.3145.4146.6147.4147.6

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18


NEW CONSTRUCTION[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1979...19801981....19821983.19841985...19861987....1988

1988- JuneJuly

SeptOctNovDec

1989- JanFebMar

May 'June ".July"

Total newconstructionexpenditures

Private

Total

Residential

Total ' New housingunits

Commercialand

industrial 2Other

Federal,State, and

local

Billions of dollars

253.0252.8261.3248.0282.4329.6356.6387.0397.7409.7

408.7410.7408.1411.5411.1415.4425.0

424.8418.5419.2415.8418.2414.7

201.3194.3204.7194.3228.7271.9292.6315.3320.1328.7

328.0328.1329.2329.8331.4332.8336.3

339.5335.0340.4335.4333.5334.0

116.4100.4

99.284.7

125.5153.8158.5187.1194.7198.1

196.2196.8197.6198.3200.8202.0202.5

204.7202.3204.5204.0200.2197.9

89.369.669.457.094.6

113.8114.7133.2139.9138.9

42.046.755.058.753.868.682.778.076.579.8

Annual rates

137.5137.0137.0138.0139.8141.9143.3

145.6145.3143.2142.0138.3136.6

82.081.480.679.779.178.880.6

82.581.184.279.480.382.7

42.847.250.550.949.349.451.450.248.950.8

51.758.556.553.753.857.764.171.777.680.9

49.949.951.051.951.551.953.2

52.251.651.852.053.053.4

80.882.578.981.779.782.688.8

85.383.478.780.484.780.6

Construction contracts 3

Total valueindex

(1982=100)

10997

100100124136150158164161

169160162157164158163

155148150163159157163

Commercialand industrial

floor space(millions ofsquare feet)

1,059904919690756955

1,0971,0161,019

942

Annual rates

904954905880841839942

943850856836905938933

1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.2 Includes hotels and motels.3 F.W. Dodge series.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information SystemCompany, F.W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

Period

1979198019811982198319841985198619871988

1988- July

SeptOctNovDec

1989- JanFebMar

July p

New private housing units

Units started, by type of structure

Total

1,745.11,292.21,084.21,062.21,703.01,749.51,741.81,805.41,620.51,488.1

1,4781,4591,4631,5321,5671,577

1,6781,4651,4091,3431,3081,4191,430

1 unit

1,194.1852.2705.4662.6

1,067.61,084.21,072.41,179.41,146.41,081.3

1,0671,0761,0391,1361,1381,141

1,1991,029

9811,029

977979

1,041

2-4 units

122.0109.591.180.0

113.5121.493.484.065.358.8

5 or more units

429.0330.5287.7319.6522.0544.0576.1542.0408.7348.0

Seasonally adjusted annu

505962636865

66625062425659

361324362333361371

413374378252289384330

Unitsauthorized

1,551.81,190.6

985.51,000.51,605.21,681.81,733.31,769.41,534.81,455.6

al rates

1,4251,4661,4321,5261,5081,518

1,4861,4031,2301,3341,3471,3081,281

Unitscompleted

1,870.81,501.61,265.71,005.51,390.31,652.21,703.31,756.41,668.81,529.8

1,5281,5391,5361,5161,4291,539

1,5371,6101,459

r 1,5521,4411,332

New private homes

Homes sold

709545436412623639688750671676

701712691718650669

700621

r555r607646646739

Homes forsale at end of

period i

3 397337275253301353346357365366

365363361353364366

369375377377381379371

Vacancy ratefor rental

housing units(percent) 2

5.45.45.05.35.75.96.57.37.77.7

7.8

7.3

7.3

7.3

1 Seasonally adjusted.2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter, i

with earlier data.3 New series beginning March 1979.

eries beginning 1979 not strictly comparableNOTE. — Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data

are for 16,000 places.Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19


BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and TradeIn June, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.4 percent and inventories rose $3.1 billion. In July, according toadvance data, retail sales rose 0.9 percent, following a decline of 0.1 percent in June.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

- ^_^— -

-

-

-

-

imiliim1985

,^~*~1^

MANTR/

* *

MAt

iimliim1986

UFACTURIN

kDE INVENTC

y-\"*NUFACTUR

-JD TRADE S/

miilum1987

3 AND>RIES

_ s~~~*

W-UES

Illllllllll

1988

-^ -

-

-

-

-

Illllllllll

1989

"RETAIL INVENTORIES


240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

Illllllllll

• RETAIL SALES-

RATIO*1.80

1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

_ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO RETA|L

* .. -!TV..--V.'

-

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1985

r^vv

iiiniiiiii1986

'^z^^ »» ' -'"

^T-x~~ -

MANUFACTURINGAND TRADE

T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11987

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 j f1988

iiii|liiiu1989

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

198219831984.1985198619871988.

1988: June r

JulyAUE . . ..SeptGetNovDec

1989' JanFebMarAprMay r

June "July ".

Manufacturing andtrade '

Sales a Inven-tories 3

Wholesale

Sales 2 Inven-tories 3

Eetail

Sales 2

TotalDurablegoodsstores

Nondura-ble goods

stores

Inventories 3

TotalDurablegoodsstores

Nondura-ble goods

stores

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

348,747368,813407,869418,151423,700449,536485,756

486,226r486,102492,491492,478498,846501,400506,186

511,881507,328507,555517,745518,088515,769

574,491590,358644,306655,066653,853700,761753,718

724,515729,903737,562744,054743,544746,756753,718

759,803763,051765,504771,340778,093781,171

96,290100,244113,195114,315115,677123,581132,361

132,285133,833134,726135,332138,087137,239136,170

140,356139,547139,991142,290142,474142,046

128,196130,334142,380146,745152,447162,648178,313

172,079174,581176,368176,972177,408177,060178,313

179,761179,810179,681181,226182,615182,737

89,10797,328

106,805113,821119,663126,785135,763

135,060" 135,571

136,050135,751137,842139,529139,189

140,040139,428139,516141,413142,543

r 142,440143,731

28,01332,57437,81941,38744,86147,70752,379

52,372r52,22751,93151,42752,72553,93054,154

53,81553,07152,88653,90154,139' 53,65554,571

61,09364,75468,98572,43474,80279,07783,384

82,688r 83,34484,11984,32485,11785,59985,035

86,22586,35786,63087,51288,404

T 88,78589,160

134,468147,377167,159180,825185,224206,981221,242

210,473211,534215,396219,297216,724218,093221,242

222,584224,185224,693226,656230,423231,888

61,46968,98479,25788,60890,477

106,271114,994

106,869107,443110,146114,303111,689112,904114,994

115,704116,169115,993117,093118,835119,548

72,99978,39387,90292,21794,747

100,710106,248

103,604104,091105,250104,994105,035105,189106,248

106,880108,016108,700109,563111,588112,340

Inventory-sales ratio 4

Manufac-turing

andtrade '

1.671.561.531.551.551.511.50

1.491.501.501.511.491.491.49

1.481.501.511.491.501.51

Retail

1.491.441.491.531.561.561.57

1.561.561.581.621.571.561.59

1.591.611.611.601.621.63

1 See page 21 for manufacturing.2 Monthly average for year and total for month.3 End of period.

4 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios.


20


MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERSIn June, manufacturers' shipments fell while inventories and orders rose. In July, according to advance data,durable goods shipments and new orders fell.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

280240

200

160

120

80

60

TOTAL

DURABLE GOODS

NONDURABLE GOODS

I l l l l l l l l l l


240

200

160

120

80

60

.

NEW ^PDEPS

^-^— i

Illllllllll1985

SEASONALLY ADJ

OURCE; DEPARTM

-r \| TOTAL

1DURABLE GOOD

^^

S A...̂ -''

__ J .-"'U--"t"1 -

iiintiiiii imiimii1986 1987

USTED

ENT OF COMMERCE

Illllllllll

1988

•».̂ ...

._--

Illllllllll

1989

440400360

280

200

160

120

80

60,

INVENTORIES

,_

MM, In,,,

DL

"kTOTAL

1 ^RABLE GOO

— v~NONDURABLE C

Illllllllll Illllllllll

. — —

OS

5OODS

Illllllllll

, — • —

Illllllllll

RATIO2.20

2.00

1.80

1.60

1.40

1.20

*

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

^

M 1 I 1 1 1 I t 1 1

1985

^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 [ H

19861 1 M 1 1 I \ | | I

1987

-

mill

1988

r̂ "̂

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1989


Period

1982 .19831984. .19851986.19871988

1988: JuneJulyAutrSeptOctNovDec

1989: JanFeb .. .MarAprMay 'June 'July p

Manufacturers' shipments l

Total Durablegoods

Nondura-ble goods

Manufacturers' inventories 2

Total Durablegoods

Nondura-ble goods

Manufacturers' new orders 1

Total

Durable goods

Total

Capitalgoods

industries,non-

defense

Nondura-ble goods

Manufac-turers'unfilledorders 2

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

163,350171,242187,869190,016188,360199,170217,632

218,881216,698221,715221,395222,917224,632230,827

231,485228,353228,048234,042233,071231,283

79,35284,95696,62399,01999,989

105,291115,684

116,522113,122117,866118,030118,439119,874124,175

123,578120,924120,432123,331122,962

r!21,771118 161

83,99886,28691,24690,99688,37193,879

101,948

102,359103,576103,849103,365104,478104,758106,652

107,907107,429107,616110,711110,109109,512

311,827312,647334,767327,496316,182331,132354,163

341,963343,788345,798347,785349,412351,603354,163

357,458359,056361,130363,458365,055366,546

200,825200,406218,771214,066208,313216,598233,666

224,000225,467226,600228,214229,735231,766233,666

236,810238,165239,330240,486241,689242,312

111,002112,241115,996113,430107,869114,534120,497

117,963118,321119,198119,571119,677119,837120,497

120,648120,891121,800122,972123,366124,234

162,273174,122189,791190,918188,663201,966221,627

228,090219,877227,009222,669227,095228,153238,886

236,075231,306233,011239,907233,753235,254

78,33887,60098,58199,843

100,166107,770119,634

125,442116,112122,806119,321122,791123,035132,149

128,479124,107125,377129,372123,524

" 125,233122,896

21,66122,09826,24327,06726,55129,70735,028

35,45836,21338,80834,85834,62335,82539,432

40,35237,18938,13740,38937,290

r39,17941,142

83,93586,52291,20991,07588,49794,197

101,993

102,648103,765104,203103,348104,304105,118106,737

107,596107,199107,634110,535110,229110,021

314,270349,419372,586383,181387,065421,243468,860

443,357446,536451,830453,103457,281460,802468,860

473,450476,403481,366487,231487,913491,884

Manufac-turers'inven-tory —

shipmentsratio 3

1.951.801.741.741.701.621.58

1.561.591.561.571.571.571.53

1.541.571.581.551.571.58

1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.2 End of period.

3 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios.


21


PRICESPRODUCER PRICESIn July, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.4 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.1percent and prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.9 percent. Capital equipment prices were unchanged.

INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)

120

110

100

90

80

INDEX, 1982=100 (RATIO SCALE)

120SEASONALLY ADJUSTED /-|~>M«I UACD

FINISHED GOODS PRICES CONSUMERFOODS ..

CAPITAL EQUIPMENT

_,--,

—

—/ fS

/

—

Illllllllll

1981

"' "*"

Illllllllll

1982

c*""l̂ S2«i

Illllllllll

1983

&z£^\^^

iiiiiiiiin1984

''^-^S-../'-v

niiiiiiiii1985

•""' / ^

^C^\

*v"\ *..'

Illllllllll1986

*./ *

^..

' \ 'CONSUMER CEXCLUDING F

||||ll|llll

1987

/

sf^

TOTAL ;

^ — r~~~

»OODSOODS

Illllllllll

1988

/'>•-

/**

/ \

—

—

—

Illllllllll

1989

SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER:

110

100

90

80


Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988

1988- JulyAue:SeptOctNovDec

1989- JanFebMar r

May

July

Finished goods

Totalfinishedgoods

88.096.1

100.0101.6103.7104.7103.2105.4108.0

108.2108.5109.1109.2109.5109.9

111.1112.1112.6113.1114.1114.0113.5

Con-sumerfoods

92.497.8

100.0101.0105.4104.6107.3109.5112.6

112.9113.6114.6114.7115.1115.2

116.7117.8118.8118.2119.2118.2118.3

Finished goods excluding consumer foods

Total

86.795.6

100.0101.8103.2104.6101.9104.0106.5

106.6106.9107.3107.4107.7108.2

109.3110.1110.5111.4112.4112.6111.9

Consumer goods

Total

87.196.1

100.0101.2102.2103.398.5

100.7103.1

103.3103.5103.7103.8104.1104.7

106.0107.1107.5109.0110.2110.1109.1

Durable

91.096.4

100.0102.8104.5106.5108.9111.5113.8

113.9114.5115.1115.0115.0115.4

116.3116.9117.0116.3117.2117.4117.1

Nondurable

85.195.8

100.0100.5101.1101.793.394.997.3

97.697.697.697.898.398.9

100.4101.6102.2104.5105.8105.6104.3

Capitalequip-ment

85.894.6

100.0102.8105.2107.5109.7111.7114.3

114.3114.7115.7115.6115.8116.2

116.9117.4117.5117.4117.9118.7118.7

Totalfinished

con-sumergoods

88.696.6

100.0101.3103.3103.8101.4103.6106.2

106.5106.8107.3107.4107.8108.2

109.5110.6111.2112.0113.2112.8112.1

Intermediate materials

Total

90.398.6

100.0100.6103.1102.799.1

101.5107.1

107.9108.2108.6108.6109.0109.5

110.8111.3111.9112.5112.6112.4112.2

Foodsand

feeds '

105.5104.6100.0103.6105.797.396.299.2

109.5

115.9114.9115.3115.1113.2112.3

115.2114.8116.7115.2113.6111.8113.6

Other

89.498.2

100.0100.5103.0103.099.3

101.7106.9

107.4107.8108.2108.3108.8109.4

110.5111.1111.7112.3112.6112.4112.1

Crude materials

Total

95.3103.0100.0101.3103.595.887.793.796.0

96.697.297.196.694.897.8

101.8101.5103.7104.2105.1103.0103.2

Food-stuffsand

feed-stuffs

104.6103.9100.0101.8104.794.893.296.2

106.1

108.3110.9113.1113.4108.8110.8

113.3111.7115.2111.9112.3109.4108.2

Other

84.6101.8100.0100.7102.296.981.687.985.5

85.284.483.182.082.185.6

90.290.792.194.896.094.595.4

1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

22


CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERSIn July, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted and not seasonallyadjusted. The index was 5.0 percent above its year-earlier level.

INDEX, 1982-84=100 (RATIO SCALE)

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

INDEX, 1982-84=100 (RATIO SCALE)

130

120

- CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS -

V

III1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

1 1 1

1987

Hil l

1988

Illlll

110

100

90

80

70

601989

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOWSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1982-84 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Rel. imp.3....1980198119821983198419851986198719881988:

JulyAueSeptOct.. .NovDec....

1989:JanFebMarAprMay..

July ... .

All items *

Notseason-

allyadjust-

ed(NSA)

100.0

82.490996.5996

103.91076109.6113.6118.3

118.5119.0119.8120.2120.3120.5

121.1121.6122.3123.1123.8124.1124.4

Sea-son-ally

adjust-ed

118.6119.0119.5120.0120.3120.7

121.4121.9122.5123.3124.0124.2124.5

Food

16.286.893.697.499.4

103.2105.6109.0113.5118.2

118.9119.5120.3120.6120.8121.2

122.1122.6123.6124.2125.0125.3125.7

Housing

Total '

42.381.190.496.999.5

103.6107.7110.9114.2118.5

118.5118.9119.3119.6120.1120.6

120.9121.3121.7121.8122.3122.6123.3

Shelter

Total

27.881.090.596.999.1

104.0109.8115.8121.3127.1

127.0127.6128.1128.3128.9129.4

129.7130.3131.1131.2131.8132.3133.2

Rent-ers'

costs(Dec.

1982 =100)

7.9

103.0108.6115.4121.9128.1133.6

133.4133.8133.8134.1134.2134.9

135.2136.4138.2137.3137.3138.1140.2

Home-own-ers'

costs(Dec.

1982 =100)

19.7

102.5107.3113.1119.4124.8131.1

131.2131.9132.5132.7133.5133.9

134.2134.7135.1135.6136.5136.9137.5

Mainte-nanceand

repairs(NSA)

0.282.490.796.499.9

103.7106.5107.9111.8114.7

114.5115.0115.3115.0115.4115.8

116.1117.1117.1117.3117.4118.3118.4

Fueland

otherutili-ties

7.675.486.494.9

100.2104.8106.5104.1103.0104.4

104.0104.0104.4105.1105.5106.3

106.9106.7106.9107.4107.6107.1107.6

Appar-el andupkeep

6.490.995.397.8

100.2102.1105.0105.9110.6115.4

115.7113.9116.0117.4117.4117.7

117.7117.5119.1119.4120.4119.1118.1

Transportation

Total *

17.283.193.297.099.3

103.7106.4102.3105.4108.7

108.7109.6109.7110.1110.4110.4

111.2111.9112.6115.0116.1115.9115.2

Newcars

4.388.493.797.499.9

102.8106.1110.6114.6116.9

116.7117.0117.7117.8117.9118.1

118.9119.3119.7119.8119.6119.3118.8

Motorfuel

3.197.4

108.5102.899.497.998.777.180.280.9

81.382.882.081.381.179.7

80.581.883.693.096.695.493.3

Medi-cal

care

6.074.982.992.5

100.6106.8113.5122.0130.1138.6

139.4140.0140.7141.6142.2142.9

144.0145.2145.9146.6147.6148.7149.8

Bner-gy2

7.386.097.799.299.9

100.9101.6

88.288.689.3

88.989.589.389.289.589.2

89.990.491.496.197.696.695.9

Allitemsless

food,shel-ter,and

energy

48.780.688.395.1

100.0105.0109.0112.7117.0121.9

122.2122.4123.0123.8124.2124.6

125.4125.8126.3126.6127.2127.4127.6

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.

also included through 1982.3 Relative importance, December 1988.

NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costsand therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.

Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23


CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988

1988- JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1989- JanPebMar '

May

July

Change from preceding period

Totalfinishedgoods

Consumer goods

Foods Exclud-ing foods

Capitalequip-ment

Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA

11.87.13.6

.61.71.82.32.24.0

7.51.52.02.33.5.6

2.82

5.7

14.18.64.2-.9

.82.1

-6.64.13.1

11.49.23.92.01.82.72.11.33.6

Change, month to month

0.6.3.6.1.3.4

1.1.9.4.4.9

-.1A

0.7.6.9.1.3.1

1.3.9.8

-.5.8

-.8.1

0.6.2.2.1.3.6

1.21.0.4

1.41.1

-.1-.9

0.3.3.9\

.2

.3

.6

.4

.1-.1

.4

.70

Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate

Totalfinishedgoods

4.24.25.73.73.73.0

7.19.8

10.27.47.35.11.4

Consumer goods

Poods

8.68.99.26.55.42.1

7.29.7

13.15.24.82.0

.3

Excludingfoods

2.42.44.02.02.33.9

8.812.011.111.812.110.0

.4

Capitalequipment

3.23.66.14.63.91.7

4.65.64.61.71.74.14.5

Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate

Totalfinishedgoods

3.44.04.44.03.94.3

5.46.76.57.38.67.64.4

Consumer goods

Foods

4.66.77.47.67.15.6

6.87.57.56.27.35.32.8

Excludingfoods

3.23.23.02.22.33.9

5.37.17.5

10.312.110.65.9

Capitalequipment

2.72.84.53.93.73.9

4.64.83.13.13.74.33.1

Changefromyear

earlier,total

finishedgoods

NSA

13.49.24.11.62.11.0

-1.42.12.5

2.52.62.73.03.34.0

4.55.35.55.66.25.95.0


CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988

1988: JulyAugSeptOctNovDec

1989: JanFebMar

MayJuneJuly

Allitems ' Food

Housing

Total '

Shelter

Total1Kent-erg'

costs

Home-owners'

costs

Fueland

otherutili-ties

Ap-parelandup-

keep

Transportation

Total ' Newcars

Motorfuel

Medi-cal

care

Ener-gy2

Allitemslessfood,

shelter,and

energy

Change, December to December, NSA

12.58.93.83.83.93.81.14.44.4

10.24.33.12.73.82.63.83.55.2

13.710.23.63.54.34.31.73.74.0

15.09.92.44.75.26.04.64.84.5

5.15.96.35.03.93.9

4.55.15.94.65.34.7

13.814.49.71.84.21.8

-5.61.62.9

6.83.51.62.92.02.8

.94.84.7

14.610.91.83.93.12.6596.13.0

7.46.81.53.42.53.45.91.82.1

18.89.4

-6.5-1.7-2.4

3.130 718.7

-2.1

9.912.511.06.46.16.87.75.86.9

18.011.91.3

-.5.2

1.819 78.2

.5

9.89.46.15.04.33.73.33.84.7

Change, month to month

0.4.3.4.4.3.3

.6

.4

.5

.7

.6

.2

.2

0.9.5.7.2.2.3

.7

.4

.8

.5

.6

.2

.3

0.3.3.3.3.4.4

.2

.3

.3

.1

.4

.2

.6

0.2.5.4.2.5.4

.2

.5

.6

.1

.5

.4

.7

0.3.3

0.2.1.5

.2.9

1.3-.70.6

1.5

0.3.5.5.2.6.3

.2

.4

.3

.4

.7

.3

.4

0.10

.4.7.4.8

.6-.2

.2

.5

.2-.5

.5

-0.2-1.6

1.81.20

.3

0— .21.4

.3

.8— 1.1-.8

0.3.8.1.4.3

0

.7.6.6

2.11.0

-.2-.6

0.1.3.6.1.1.2

.7

.3

.3

.1-.2-.3-.4

0.51.8

-1.0Q

2-1.7

1.01.62.2

11.23.9

-1.2-2.2

0.7.4.5.6.4.5

.8

.8

.5

.5

.7

.7.7

0.2.7

-.2— .1

.33

.8

.61.15.11.6

-1.07

0.3.2.5.7.3.3

.6.3.4.2.5.2.2

Addendum: All items, percent change(annual rate)

Fromprevi-

ousquar-ter s

4.5

4.4

5.4

6.4

From3

monthsearlier

4.94.54.84.84.44.1

4.75.46.16.47.15.74.0

From6

monthsearlier

4.44.74.94.84.54.5

4.84.95.15.66.25.95.2

Fromyear

earlier

NSA

13.510.36.23.24.33.61.93.64.1

4.14.04.24.24.24.4

4.74.85.05.15.45.25.0

1 Includes items not shown separately.2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—-and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.,

also included through 1982.

3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.


24


PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERSPrices received by farmers in July were 0.7 percent below their June level. Prices paid by farmers in July were 0.6percent above their April level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.)

INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

180

160

140

120

100

80

60RATION140

120

100

80

60

INDEX, 1977 =100 (RATIO SCALE)

180

I l l l l l I l l l l l

PRICES PAID

PRICES RECEIVED

l l l l l l l l I II I Illlll II Mil 60

160

140

120

100

80

--r~~ — ̂ ^-Illllllllll

1981

|—~~~ -^-

Illllllllll

1982

— —- — 1

Illllllllll

1983

1 — 1

Illllllllll

1984

KAIIU

~ ~

Illllllllll

1985

Illllllllll

1986

Illllllllll

1987

Illllllllll

1988

-

-

Illllllllll

1989

RATIO-^140

120

100

80

60

I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1977 = 100; not seasonally adjusted]

Period

198119821983198419851986 ...19871988....

1988: July

SeptOctNovDec

1989: JanFebM&rAprMayT JJuneJuly

Prices received by farmers

All farmproducts

139133135142128123126138142144144143144145

149148149147149147146

Crops

134121128138120107106126137136135133136136

140138136140141138134

Livestock andproducts

143145141146136138146150147152153152151154

158158161154156157156

Prices paid by farmers

All commodities,services,

interest, taxes,and wage rates 1

150159161164162159161170172

173

175

177

178

Productionitems, interest,

taxes, and wagerates

151158159161156150151160162

163

166

167

167

Productionitems

148153152155151144147157159

162

163

165

165

Ratio 2

9284848779777981838484838384

85858583848382

1 Includes items not shown separately. NOTE. — The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, have been converted to a 1977 — 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes,

and wage rates. See also footnote 3.3 Beginning March 1986. prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and bource: Department of Agriculture.

for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available.

25


MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURESMl rose in July after declining for four months; growth in the broader aggregates accelerated in July.


4,000

3,200

2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

1985

• AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1984

M2

1986

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

4,0003,600

3,200

2,800

1987

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

600

400

1988 1989


[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1980- Dec1981- Dec1982: Dec1983- Dec1984: Dec1985- Dec1986- Dec1987: Dec1988- Dec

1988- July

SeptOctNovDec

1989: JanFeb ' ..Mar '

May '

July p

Ml

Sum of currency,demand deposits,travelers' checks,

and othercheckable

deposits (OCDs)

412.2439.1476.4522.1551.9620.5725.9752.3790.3

782.5782.4783.7785.4786.6790.3

786.3787.4786.3783.1773.3770.3777.3

M2

Ml plus overnightKPs and

Eurodollars,MMMF balances(general purpose

and broker/dealer),MMDAs, and

savings and smalltime deposits

1,633.31,795.91,954.52,186.02,367.22,567.42,811.22,909.93,069.4

3,023.93,029.73,035.03,042.23,059.33,069.4

3,065.73,069.23,078.23,080.03,070.73,086.03,118.1

M3

M2 plus largetime deposits,

term EPs, termEurodollars, andinstitution-only

MMMF balances

1,991.11,236.92,443.82,694.32,982.33,201.73,494.93,677.6

r3,914.3

3,839.13,851.13,860.53,877.23,897.2

r3,914.3

3,918.73,927.83,948.93,956.23,951.23,969.04,000.6

L

MS plusother liquid

assets

2,327.82,599.42,853.53,155.53,523.43,830.64,137.14,340.2

r4,675.0

4,565.14,583.64,591.74,612.54,638.4

P4,675.0

4,678.34,690.44,724.44,742.14,737.64,739.2

Debt

Debt ofdomestic

nonfinaneialsectors

(monthlyaverage) 1

3,882.54,258.04,642.05,176.05,923.56,733.37,596.98,310.79,052.1

8,718.88,784.38,850.08,912.48,988.69,052.1

9,107.29,172.39,229.49,285.19,344.09,397.4

Percent change from year or 6months earlier 2

Ml

6.86.58.59.65.7

12.417.03.65.1

6.56.05.33.74.13.6

1.01.3.7

-.6-3.4-5.0

2 3

M2

8.910.08.8

11.88.38.59.53.55.5

6.55.44.53.54.03.8

2.82.62.92.5

.71.13.4

M3

10.212.39.2

10.310.77.49.25.26.4

7.56.45.65.25.45.2

4.24.04.64.12.82.84.2

Debt

9.69.79.0

11.514.413.712.89.48.9

8.99.09.08.99.39.3

9.19.08.88.58.17.8

1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local govern-ments, and private nonfinaneial sectors; data from flow of hinds accounts.

2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earli-

er at an annual rate.

NOTE.-—See p. 27 for components.


26


COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

1980: Dec1981- Dec1982: Dec1983- Dec1984: Dec1985- Dec1986: Dec1987- Dec1988: Dec

1988: July

SeptOc?NovDec

1989: JanFebMar

May '

July"

Cur-rency

115.2122.5132.6146.3156.1167.8180.5196.4211.8

206.4207.0208.6209.7210.5211.8

213.4214.3215.6215.9216.4217.4218.0

De-mand

de-posits

261.5231.5234.2238.7244.2267.3303.2288.3288.6

290.4289.9288.8288.9287.7288.6

284.0284.8284.3281.4278.2275.0279.0

Othercheck-

abledepos-

its(OCDs)

31.380.8

105.3132.2146.4179.5235.8260.4282.3

278.5278.3279.0279.4281.0282.3

281.3280.9279.1278.5271.3270.7273.2

Over-nightrepur-chaseagree-ments(EPs),

net,plusover-nightEuro-dollars

NSA

28.335.938.853.856.370.278.378.378.3

77.679.977.376.075.678.3

81.678.877.273.972.173.978.1

Money marketmutual fund

balances

Gener-al

pur-poseand

broker/dealer

NSA

61.6150.6185.2138.2167.5176.5208.0221.1239.4

229.6230.8231.0231.3237.4239.4

241.7247.2

r 255.5259.1258.9265.1274.6

Insti-tutiononly

NSA

15.238.051.143.262.764.584.489.687.6

84.884.083.784.687.487.6

89.389.687.687.791.695.198.2

Moneymarketdeposit

accounts(MMDAs)

NSA

0.0.0

43.2379.2416.9513.5572.5526.3502.7

522.0517.7511.4507.5506.7502.7

495.2485.3480.3471.3457.0456.9459.8

Sav-ingsde-

posits

400.2344.0356.9305.6285.4301.6371.0416.4431.3

429.7430.9430.5429.2431.8431.3

427.8424.6420.8412.8404.7402.0401.5

Smalldenom-inationtune

depos-its1

728.6823.2851.0784.0886.3882.6853.9914.1

1,025.2

981.0988.3998.7

1,009.71,017.81,025.2

1,035.71,048.31,061.01,083.11,105.81,118.51,126.3

Largedenom-ination

timedepos-its '

260.1302.5326.8327.4417.2436.6439.0487.4

r537.8

514.0519.4526.7532.0534.4

r537.8

' 544.5r551.7' 558.9567.8572.3573.3573.9

Termrepur-chaseagree-ments(EPs)

NSA

34.036.034.551.861.965.684.0

109.1123.1

125.6123.8122.3124.7127.5123.1

124.1127.1129.4127.0127.2126.9120.9

TermEuro-dollars

(net)

NSA

50.367.581.791.582.976.184.990.8

105.8

97.1102.8' 102.8

100.2101.6105.8

' 100.5r99.9' 105.3

101.1100.3

99.099.4

Sav-ings

bonds

72.367.868.071.174.279.491.7

100.4109.1

106.8107.4107.9108.4108.7109.1

109.7110.6111.5112.3112.9113.8

Short-term

Treas-ury

secu-rities

133.5149.4183.6211.9260.7300.1282.3257.5275.2

268.7272.6272.8273.3268.4275.2

' 274.4267.8

' 273.5278.0278.8264.7

Bankers'accept-ances

32.140.044.545.045.442.037.244.740.6

40.741.241.741.340.540.6

40.639.941.241.541.141.2

Com-mercialpaper

98.8105.3113.6133.2160.7207.4231.0260.3335.8

309.8311.3308.8312.3323.7335.8

334.9344.2349.2354.2353.5350.5

1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than here.1100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Source: Board of Governl)ra o( the Federal Reserve System.

NOTE.-—Travelers checks of nonfaank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown

AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE[Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

1980: Dec1981: Dec1982- Dec1983: Dec1984- Dec1985: Dec1986' Dec1987- Dec1988: Dec

1988: July

SeptOctNovDec

1989- JanFebMar

MayT 3

July".

Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements

Reserves of depository institutions

Total

33,40135,31537,38839,18442,32148,49358,14058,69360,706

61,05860,90360,82460,86260,85360,706

60,37060,26059,85459,46358,74058,35058,699

Nonbor-rowed

31,71134,67936,75438,41039,13447,17557,31357,91658,990

57,61857,66357,98558,56257,99158,990

58,70858,77358,04157,17457,01956,86058,005

Nonbor-rowed plusextended

credit

31,71434,82736,94038,41241,73947,67457,61658,39960,234

60,15760,31660,04360,34360,31460,234

59,75459,82259,37658,88058,217

r57,77658,111

Required

32,88734,99636,88838,62341,46847,43656,77157,66559,666

60,05159,95059,85259,80059,73359,666

59,22659,10658,89658,68657,70957,44557,733

Monetarybase

152,525161,043173,011188,303201,889219,510241,448257,991275,501

270,308270,979272,420273,659274,380275,501

276,784277,553278,615

r278,675278,329279,056279,984

Borrowings of depositoryinstitutions from the Federal

Reserve (NSA)

Total

1,690636634774

3,1861,318

827777

1,716

3,4403,2412,8392,2992,8611,716

1,6621,4871,8132,2891,7201,490

694

Seasonal

116543396

113563893

130

376423421332186130

7697

139213345431497

Extendedcredit

3148186

22,604

499303483

1,244

2,5382,6532,0591,7812,3221,244

1,0461,0501,3341,7071,197

917106


27


BANK LOANS AND SECURITIESTotal commercial bank loans and leases rose 1.1 percent in July; commercial and industrial loans rose 1.2 percent.

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS


2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

800

400

200

160

120

1981 1982 1983

LOANS AND LEASES

U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

1984

l l l l l l l l l

1985

TOTHER SECURITIES •

l l l H l l l l l l

1986


2,800

2,400

2,000

1,600

1,200

800

400

200

160

120

1987

• SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDSOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

M i l l

1988 1989


[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted *]

Period

1981: Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec1986: Dec1987: Dec1988: Dec

1988: AugSeptOctNovDec

1989: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJuly"...

All commercial banks

Totalloans and

securi-ties 2

1,307.71,401.51,553.61,723.71,911.42,094.52,239.62,417.2

2,377.62,381.52,401.42,410.22,417.2

2,422.82,451.92,464.92,470.92,486.32,496.82,518.1

U.S.Govern-

mentsecuri-

ties

179.3201.7259.2260.2270.7309.6335.5361.4

350.9353.1355.6358.8361.4

360.4361.8368.8370.7373.5373.8374.4

Othersecuri-

ties

160.9165.7170.6142.6181.4196.5195.3194.0

196.5195.2196.8195.9194.0

189.6190.4189.7187.2186.4

r 185.8184.6

Loans and leases

Total 2

967.51,034.11,123.91,321.01,459.31,588.41,708.81,861.9

1,830.11,833.21,848.91,855.61,861.9

1,872.91,899.71,906.51,913.11,926.51,937.31,959.1

Com-mercial

andindustri-

al

355.4392.6414.1472.9499.7536.2562.7601.9

597.4598.1601.6601.8601.9

606.6619.0617.8620.6626.3624.9632.2

Realestate

284.1299.8330.8376.3425.8494.0589.0672.0

643.0650.3659.8665.3672.0

678.9685.6691.8699.5705.5712.0719.8

Indi-vidual

182.5188.2212.9253.8294.8315.9329.5355.5

347.7350.2351.6353.0355.5

357.9358.9360.6362.9365.4366.0367.0

Securi-ty

21.525.428.134.342.740.134.438.5

39.636.538.538.238.5

37.744.743.640.038.041.140.3

Non-hankfinan-cial

institu-tions

29.931.330.531.432.535.031.930.0

31.130.730.430.230.0

30.330.629.729.229.0

r30.631.7

Agri-cultural

33.136.239.240.136.131.629.430.7

29.629.629.830.330.7

30.730.730.730.430.330.330.4

Stateand

politi-cal

subdi-visions

0.0.0

3.346.056.758.452.546.8

48.248.048.547.746.8

44.444.544.644.644.644.544.3

For-eign

banks

18.114.813.411.19.79.67.57.6

8.07.27.68.17.6

7.88.5

r8.28.3

r9.4r9.38.9

For-eign

officialinstitu-

tions

7.25.99.47.96.05.95.34.9

5.15.0

r4.94.94.9

4.84.84.8

r4.9r4.94.74.5

Leasefinanc-

ingreceiv-ables

12.713.313.716.019.022.324.529.2

28.128.528.929.129.2

29.429.629.629.830.029.930.4

Other

23.126.631.831.236.339.442.1

r44.8

52.249.147.5

r47.0r44.8

44.4r42.7r45.2r42.9r43.1r43.8

49.7

3 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averagesof month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictlycomparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligationsof States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities.

2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.


28


SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIALCORPORATE BUSINESS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual ratesj

Period

1979198019811982198319841985198619871988

1988- InmIV

1989: 1"

Sources

Total

326.0324.8375.8298.5420.3492.6459.2519.8482.9467.5

464.4465.8475.8463.5

431.4

Internal 1

197.6200.1239.5242.3285.7336.3352.3357.5352.8366.8

359.9363.6365.3378.3

355.8

External

Total

128.4124.7136.4

56.2134.6156.3106.9162.3130.1100.7

104.5102.2110.5

85.2

75.6

Credit market funds

Total

60.170.790.749.877.995.850.9

121.368.563.8

100.554.067.532.8

-5.4

Securitiesand

mortgages

9.034.529.410.352.65 15.0

59.038.2

-18.2

20.5-20.0

12.486 1

81 0

Loans andshort-term

paper

51.136.261.239.525.3

100.946.062.330.382.0

80.074.055.1

118.9

75.6

Other 2

68.254.045.7

6.456.860.555.941.061.637.0

4.048.243.152.4

80.9

Uses

Total

368.1342.1383.6303.5385.8502.7435.3456.7437.3448.3

433.9447.3459.6452.2

425.3

Capitalexpendi-tures 3

238.3243.7286.5256.5270.7370.6342.3333.9361.7395.7

387.8386.7398.6409.3

406.6

Increase infinancial

assets

129.898.497.047.0

115.1132.193.0

122.875.652.6

46.160.661.042.9

18.7

Discrepancy(sources less

uses)

-42.1-17.3-7.7-4.934.5

-10.123.963.045.519.1

30.518.516.111.3

6.0

1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capitalconsumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retainedabroad.

2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.Government.


CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]

Period

1980: Dec1981- Dec1982: Dec1983: Dec1984: Dec1985: Dec1986: Dec1987- Dec .1988: Dec1988: June

JulyAugSeptOctKovDec

NEW SERIES:1989: Jan

FebMarApr r

May r.June p

Installment credit outstanding (end of period)

Total

297,566310,682323,536367,868442,538517,755572,047607,721659,507637,836639,207644,666646,556649,132654,413659,507

682,020687,397691,162693,911698,132701,118

Automobile

111,936118,956124,218143,799173,704209,636247,313265,976281,174

278,058277,659279,585279,243278,902279,926281,174

286,382288,767288,850289,654290,741290,474

Revolving

54,89460,83866,24378,667

100,212122,013137,013153,884174,792164,408165,343167,125168,273170,131173,030174,792

176,716178,570182,831184,500186,502189,609

Mobilehome

18,62120,30222,83323,70425,79526,83427,35526,38725,74426,17426,21326,27726,18526,03326,00525,744

26,03625,99224,16823,99323,95223,695

Other

112,115110,586110,242121,698142,827159,272160,367161,475177,798169,196169,993171,679172,855174,066175,452177,798

192,886194,068195,314195,763196,936197,340

Net change in installment credit outstanding 1

Total

1,08313,11612,85444,33274,67075,21754,29235,67451,786

5,4051,3715,4591,8902,5765,2815,094

(2)5,3773,7652,7494,2212,986

Automo-bile

5397,0205,262

19,58129,90535,93237,67718,66315,1981,600

3991,926

342-3411,0241,248

(2)2,385

82804

1,087-267

Revolving

1,5375,9445,405

12,42421,54521,80115,00016,87120,908

2,303935

1,7821,1481,8582,8991,762

(2)1,8544,2611,6702,0023,107

Mobilehome

4141,6812,531

8712,0911,039

521-968-643-75

396492

-15228

-261

<2)44

-1,824174

-41257

Other

-3291 529

— 34411,45621,12916,4451,0951,108

16,323

1,577797

1,6861,1761,2111,3862,346

(2)1,1821,246

4491,173

404

1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from precedingmonth.

2 Because of break in series, net change not available.


29


INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDSInterest rates rose in August.

PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PfR ANNUM

\6

-DISCOUNT —RATE

FEDERALRESERVE

BANK OFNEW YORK

SOURCE SEE TABIE a COUNCIL OE ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]

Period

19811982198319841985198619871988

19881 AugSept

OctNovDec

1989: JanFebMarApr.. ..MayJune

July

Aug p

Week ended:

1989: Aug 5121926

Sept 2

U.S. Treasury security yields

3-month bills(new issues) x

14.029

10.686

8.639.587.485.985.826.69

7.027.287.347.688.09

8.298.488.838.708.408.227.927.91

7.657.948.017.997.94

Constant maturities 2

3-year

14.4412.9210.4511.899.647.067.688.26

8.778.578.438.729.11

9.209.329.619.408.988.377.838.12

7.668.018.238.33

10-year

13.9113.0011.1012.4410.62

7.688.398.85

9.268.988.808.969.11

9.099.179.369.188.868.288.028.11

7.828.048.188.23

High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard &

Poor's) 3

11.2311.579.47

10.159.187.387.737.76

7.867.717.547.587.66

7.417.477.617.497.256.976.97

6.877.067.077.20

CorporateAaa bonds(Moody' s) *

14.1713.7912.0412.7111.37

9.029.389.71

10.119.829.519.459.57

9.629.649.809.799.579.10

r8.93

8.95

8.818.928.999.02

Primecommercial

paper,6 months *

14.7611.898.89

10.168.016.396.857.68

8.368.238.248.558.97

9.029.359.979.789.298.808.358.31

7.998.208.408.46

Discount rate(N.Y. P.R.

Bank)5

13.4111.028.508.807.696.335.666.20

6.00-6.50

6.50-6.50

6.50-6.50

6.50-6.50

6.50-6.50

6.50-6.50

6.50-7.00

7.00-7.00

7.00-7.00

7 00 7 007.00-7.00

7.00-7.00

7.00-

7.00-7.00

7 00 7 007 00 7 007.00-7.00

7.00-

Prime ratecharged by

bants 5

18.8714.8610.7912.04

9.938.338.229.32

9.50-10.00

10.00-10.00

10.00-10.00

10.00-10.50

10.50-10.50

10.50-10.50

10.50-11.50

11.50-11.50

11.50-11.50

11.50-11.50

11.50-11.00

11.00-10.50

10.50-

11.00-10.50

10.50-10.50

10.50-10.50

10.50-10.50

10.50-

New-homemortgage

yields(FHLBB) 6

14.7015.1412.5712.3811.5510.179.319.19

9.069.269.109.439.39

9.529.829.99

10.1710.1810.4210.48

1 Bank-discount basis.2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury De-

partment.3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack

of appropriate issues.

5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as

well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feder-al Home Loan Bank Board, Moodv's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

30


COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDSStock prices rose in August.

INDE>

240220200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

PERC

20

15

10

5

0

(, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO!

COMPOS ITF STOCK PRICE(NYSE)

\ .

r ~r-^^

^Vn

] I I I I 1 11 I r l

1981

ENT

^J

1982

S 1

1983

^~^r~J

1984

^

1 1 1

1981

SOURCES: NEW YORK

^

i i i1982

STOCK EXCHANGE A

---_- -

1 1 1

1983

ND STANDARD & POC

f^ ~

1 1 1

1984

)R'S CORPORATION

1 1 n i 1 1 1 i 1 1

1985 1986

NGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMM(S&P)

\

^ >^

1 1 11985

fA .

1 1

1986

Kjnpy ~ S

( \ S~*~/~^~~'"̂̂

1987

ii i ill in ii

1988

jCALE)

240220200180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

1989PERCENT

r /~\ i i1987

p- — —

1 1 1

1988

COUNCIL OF

1 1 1 0

1989

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1981198219831984198519861987.1988

1988- AugSeptOctNovDec

1989' JanFebMarAprMay

JulyAug p

Week ended:1989: July 29

Aug 5121926

Common stock prices l

New York Stock Exchange indexes (E

Composite

74.0268.9392.6392.46

108.09136.00161.70149.91

149.25151.47156.36152.67155.35

160.40165.08164.60169.38175.30180.76185.15192.83

188.17191.86193.55192.14192.40

Industrial

85.4478.18

107.45108.01123.79155.85195.31180.95

179.72182.18188.58183.79187.75

194.62200.00199.20204.81211.51216.75221.74231.17

225.74229.48231.94230.41230.84

Transporta-tion

72.6160.4189.3685.63

104.11119.87140.39134.12

132.53136.27141.93138.60144.07

153.09162.66160.14164.32168.88173.47179.32196.97

183.91187.06195.58196.97199.16

ec. 31, 1965 = 5

Utility

38.9139.7547.0046.4456.7571.3674.3071.77

70.6771.8374.1973.8374.81

75.8777.8477.6679.6984.0787.9590.4092.89

91.2693.5793.4892.3392.33

3)2

Finance

73.5271.9995.3489.28

114.21147.20146.48127.26

130.77133.15134.66129.61128.83

132.26137.19137.91143.26146.60154.08157.78164.84

1599.99164.77165.71164.34164.11

Dow-Jonesindustrialaverage 3

932.92884.36

1,190.341,178.481,328.231,792.762,275.992,060.82

2,051.292,080.062,144.312,099.042,148.58

2,234.682,304.302,283.112,348.912,439.552,494.902,554.032,689.01

2,610.362,654.862,695.372,685.322,688.62

Standard &Poor's

compositeindex (1941-

43=10)4

128.05119.71160.41160.46186.84236.34286.83265.79

263.73267.97277.40271.02276.51

285.41294.01292.71302.25313.93323.73

r331.93346.39

337.95344.57344.74344.78345.72

Common stock yields(percent) 5

Dividend-price ratio

5.205.814.404.644.253.493.083.64

3.753.693.613.703.68

3.643.593.683.593.523.443.38

3.313.283.273.283.30

Earnings-price ratio

11.9611.608.03

10.028.126.095.488.01

8.36

8.56

8.46

1 Average of daily closing prices.2 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.3 Includes 30 stocks.4 Includes 500 stocks.5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Cor-

poration.

31


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBTIn the first 10 months of fiscal 1989, there was a deficit of $123.8 billion, compared with a deficit of $142.2billion a year earlier.

BILLIOI-1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

45 OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DC

RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS!^

-""'

-""""-**" ^^^

^^

-~ff — RECEIPTS1'

A . i i i i - —i — — i 1 1 1 . N

3LLARS

1,200

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

0

100

200

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-V

^\ ^

A i I i I I I^1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

^^^

I I I .._ IS1987 1988 1989 1990^

-100

-200

V INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Of THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

FISCAL YEARS


[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period

1976Transition quarter19771978 ,197919801981198219831984

19851986198719881989 (estimates) 1

1990 (estimates) l

Cumulative total, first 10months: 2

Fiscal year 1988Fiscal year 1989

Total

Receipts

298.181.2

355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

734.1769.1854.1909.0995.9

1,080.1

741.7816.1

Outlays

371.896.0

409.2458.7503.5590.9678.2745.7808.3851.8

946.3990.3

1,003.81,064.01,144.11,179.4

883.9939.9

Surplusor deficit

(-)

-73.7-14.7-53.6-59.2-40.2-73.8-78.9

-127.9-207.8-185.3

-212.3-221.2-149.7

155 1-148.3-99.2

-142.2123 8

On-budget

Receipts

231.763.2

278.7314.2365.3403.9469.1474.3453.2500.4

547.9568.9640.7667.5731.1793.3

540.9595.0

Outlays

302.276.6

328.5369.1403.5476.6543.0594.3661.2686.0

769.5806.8810.0861.4933.2957.1

716.5766.5

Surplusor deficit

(-)

70 5-13.3

49 7-54.9

38 2-72.7

73 9-120.0-208.0-185.6

-221.6-237.9-169.3-193.9-202.1-163.8

-175.7-171.5

Off-budget

Eeceipts

66.418.076.885.498.0

113.2130.2143.5147.3166.1

186.2200.2213.4241.5264.7286.8

200.8221.1

Outlays

69.619.480.789.7

100.0114.3135.2151.4147.1165.8

176.8183.5193.8202.7211.0222.3

167.4173.4

Surplusor deficit

(-)

-3.2-1.4-3.9-4.3-2.0-1.1

5 0-7.9

.2

.3

9.416.719.638.853.864.5

33.447.8

Gross Federal debt(end of period)

Total

629.0643.6706.4776.6828.9908.5994.3

1,136.81,371.21,564.1

1,817.02,120.12,345.62,600.82,853.53,084.8

2,548.52,810.2

Held bythe public

477.4495.5549.1607.1639.8709.3784.8919.2

1,131.01,300.0

1,499.41,736.21,888.12,050.22,177.82,279.2

2,013.62,147.4

1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 18,1989. Data for 1990 include asset sales.

2 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for July 1989, issued August 1989.

NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January1989, except as noted.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

32


FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 10 months of fiscal 1989, receipts were $74.4 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $56.0billion higher.

OUTLAYS-!/


RECEIPTS!'400

300

200

100

0

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200


. INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES_

SOCIAL INSOCIAL INSURANCETAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS

CORPORATION.INCOME TAXES

OTHER RECEIPTS

Tf.

-NONDEFENSE

A,-

. NATIONAL DEFENSE

400

300

200

100

0

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

FISCAL YEARS

J/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

1988 1989 1990


Pillions of dollars]

Fiscal year

19761977.. ..1978197919801981198219831984

19851986198719881989 (estimates) *1990 (estimates)1.Cumulative total, first 10

months: 2

Fiscal year 1988Fiscal year 1989

On-budget and off-budget receipts

Total

298.1355.6399.6463.3517.1599.3617.8600.6666.5

734.1769.1854.1909.0995.9

1,080.1

741.7816.1

Indi-vidualincometaxes

131.6157.6181.0217.8244.1285.9297.7288.9298.4

334.5349.0392.6401.2445.3484.6

327.5363.7

Corpo-ration

incometaxes

41.454.960.065.764.661.149.237.056.9

61.363.183.994.5

105.8117.0

72.181.2

Socialinsur-ancetaxesand

contri-butions

90.8106.5121.0138.9157.8182.7201.5209.0239.4

265.2283.9303.3334.3361.5387.5

277.3301.7

Other

34.336.637.740.850.669.569.365.671.8

73.073.174.378.983.391.0

64.969.5

On-budget and off-budget outlays

Total

371.8409.2458.7503.5590.9678.2745.7808.3851.8

946.3990.3

1,003.81,064.01,144.11,179.4

883.9939.9

National defense

Total

89.697.2

104.5116.3134.0157.5185.3209.9227.4

252.7273.4282.0290.4301.2296.3

243.9248.9

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

87.995.1

102.3113.6130.9153.9180.7204.4220.9

245.2265.5274.0281.9292.7286.9

237.1241.8

Inter-nationalaffairs

6.46.47.57.5

12.713.112.311.815.9

16.214.211.610.510.716.4

10.37.9

Health

15.717.318.520.523.226.927.428.630.4

33.535.940.044.549.656.4

36.740.3

Medi-care

15.819.322.826.532.139.146.652.657.5

65.870.275.178.986.297.1

64.569.4

Incomesecuri-

ty

60.861.061.566.486.599.7

107.7122.6112.7

128.2119.8123.3129.3136.6145.4

108.4113.5

Socialsecuri-

ty

73.985.193.9

104.1118.5139.6156.0170.7178.2

188.6198.8207.4219.3232.4249.1

182.5193.6

Netinter-

est

26.729.935.442.652.568.785.089.8

111.1

129.4136.0138.6151.7169.1176.3

125.7139.6

Other

82.893.0

114.7119.6131.4133.5125.4122.3118.6

131.8142.1125.9139.4158.3142.4

112.1126.8

1 See footnote 1, page 32.2 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for July 1989, issued August 1989.

NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January1989, except as noted.

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISIn the second quarter of 1989, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $15.7 billion (annual rate)and Federal expenditures rose $16.6 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

-200


BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,200

EXPENDITURES -

I I I 1 I I1981 1982

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1983

RECEIPTS

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)

v \

1 I I1984

I I 11985 |

CALENDAR YFARS

1986

I 1 1

1987 1988

I I I

1,000

800

600

400

200

-200

1989



Period

Fiscal year:1985198619871988

Calendar year:1985198619871988

1982: TV1983- IV1984: IV1985- IV1986- IV

1987- IIIIV

1988- IIIIllIV

1989- III r

Federal Government receipts

Total

776.8815.2897.3958.6

788.7827.9911.4972.4

633.1675.5742.7805.3853.8

921.5937.4

944.7973.2977.3994.6

1,036.21,051.9

Personaltax andnontaxreceipts

340.4357.0401.2408.0

346.4361.4405.8413.0

303.0291.9326.0355.3376.2

408.1420.0

402.7417.5411.4420.3

446.8465.0

Corpo-rate

profitstax

accruals

74.681.197.7

108.3

76.383.8

101.0111.4

46.470.269.778.888.9

107.4103.1

104.2111.6114.0115.8

117.0108.4

Indirectbusinesstax andnontax

accruals

55.950.953.455.8

55.150.553.856.7

47.653.656.253.550.8

53.854.5

55.955.957.457.8

58.058.2

Contribu-tions for

socialinsurance

305.8326.1345.0386.4

310.9332.1350.8391.3

236.1259.8290.7317.7337.9

352.2359.7

382.0388.2394.5400.6

414.3420.2

Federal Government expenditures

Total

962.31,028.01,060.41,104.0

985.61,034.81,072.81,118.3

835.7844.7930.2

1,017.51,042.8

1,065.51,101.7

1,096.51,114.71,099.81,162.1

1,183.71,200.3

Pur-chases

of goodsand

services

341.5368.6375.5378.6

355.2366.5381.6381.3

293.2276.1326.0376.6368.8

384.5388.1

374.1377.1367.5406.4

399.0407.8

TransferPa>'-

ments

374.0394.6411.2432.7

380.1399.9414.3438.2

347.4352.5362.1385.8405.8

414.3421.9

433.0434.4438.0447.6

460.4466.7

Grants-in-aid to

Stateandlocal

govern-ments

97.8107.4103.1108.6

99.7106.8102.6111.4

84.586.096.3

103.5103.0

101.7102.2

110.1112.2111.0112.2

118.7118.4

Netinterest

paid

128.3134.6138.8149.0

130.1135.6141.7151.4

87.2101.0125.3132.7136.0

142.5147.3

144.9249.9153.9157.0

167.0171.9

Subsidiesless

currentsurplus ofGovern-

mententer-prises

20.722.831.935.1

20.326.032.636.0

23.429.121.019.029.2

22.741.9

34.441.229.438.9

38.535.4

Less:Wage

accrualsless

disburse-ments

-0.1.0.1

— .1

o.0.0.0

.0

.0

.6

.0

.0

.22

.0.0.0.0

.0

.0

Surplusor deficit

(-),nationalincome

andproductaccounts

-185.5-212.8-163.1-145.4

-196.9-206.9-161.4-145.8

-202.6-169.2-187.5-212.2-189.0

-143.9-164.4

-151.8— 141.5-122.5-167.6

-147.5-148.4


34


INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR

INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988

1988' JuneJuly

SeptOct..NovDec .

1989- JanFebMar

MayJuneJuly p

Industrial production (1977 = 100; seasonally adjusted)

UnitedStates

108.6111.0103.1109.2121.4123.7125.1129.8137.2

136.5138.0138.5138.6139.4139.9140.4

140.8140.5140.7

r 141.7' 141.6r!41.4

141 7

Canada

104.8106.996.5

102.7115.2121.4123.2129.6137.2

137.9137.4138.7138.8137.8137.1137.9

137.5'138.3'138.0'139.3

139.5

Japan

119.0120.3120.7124.5136.1141.0140.8145.7159.1

158.4156.4160.8161.6160.2165.0166.1

167.3164.5172.5

r 166.3'167.3

170.0

France

107.2106.1105.0105.0106.1106.1107.2109.4114.3

114.9116.0116.0117.2113.2118.0117.3

118.2'117.4'116.6

120.7118.0

Germany

108.0105.9102.7103.3106.2111.0113.0113.7118.1

118.5116.1121.3120.0119.4119.1121.2

121.2120.5121.3124.3

'118.6121.3

Italy

114.8113.0109.5105.9109.5110.7

'114.7'119.3'126.4

'125.4'128.5'126.0'124.1'127.6'129.1'132.2

127.9130.3126.9127.0

UnitedKingdom

99.896.798.5

102.2102.4107.9110.2114.1

'118.2

118.7119.0119.0119.6119.0119.6118.8

'118.1'117.6'117.8'117.8

116.4116.5

Consumer prices (1982-84=100)

UnitedStates *

82.490.996.599.6

103.9107.6109.6113.6118.3

118.0118.5119.0119.8120.2129.3120.5

121.1121.6122.3123.1123.8124.1124.4

Canada

76.185.694.8

100.4104.7108.9113.4118.4123.2

123.0123.7124.1124.2124.8125.1125.1

125.7126.6127.2127.6128.9129.6130.4

Japan

90.995.498.099.9

102.1104.2104.9105.0105.7

105.5105.3105.6106.4106.9106.5106.2

106.0105.7106.2108.1108.7108.6

France

72.281.991.7

100.3108.0114.3117.2121.1124.3

124.2124.7125.0125.3125.6125.8126.0

126.5126.8127.2128.0128.5

Germany

86.792.297.1

100.3102.7104.9104.6105.0106.2

106.3106.3106.3106.3106.4106.7106.9

108.1108.4108.6109.2109.5109.6

Italy

63.275.487.7

100.8111.5121.0128.5134.4141.1

140.5140.9141.5142.2143.3144.5145.0

146.1147.3148.0149.0149.6150.31506

UnitedKingdom

78.587.995.499.8

104.8111.2114.9119.7125.6

125.2125.4126.8127.4128.7129.2129.6

130.4131.4131.9134.3135.1135.6

1 Data relate to all urban consumers Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysisand International Trade Administration).

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

1982198319841985198619871988

1988- JuneJuly

SeptOctNovDec

1989- JanFebMar

May'

Merchandise exports (f.a.s. value) l

Total 2

H6.4205.6224.0

4 218.84 227.2

254.1322.4

26.726.627.527.627.927.528.9

29.028.830,130.830.530.9

Principal end-use commodity category

Foods,feeds,and

bever-ages

31.330.931.524.022.324.332.3

2.72.82.92.92.72.62.8

2.92.93.23.13.23.2

Indus-trialsup-pliesand

materi-als

61.756.761.758.557.366.785.1

7.17.17.17.26.87.07.4

7.17.57.68.07.98.0

Cap-ital

goodsexceptauto-

motive

72.767.272.073.975.886.2

109.2

8.89.29.39.49.49.4

10.1

9.49.39.9

10.19.8

10.5

Auto-motivevehi-cles,

parts,anden-

gines

15.716.820.622.921.724.629.3

2.22.12.82.52.52.52.7

2.42.42.52.42.32.3

Con-sumergoods(non-food)

exceptauto-

motive

14.313.413.312.614.217.723.1

1.92.02.02.12.02.02.3

2.42.52.72.82.62.9

Other 2

20.720.524.027.335.934.643.4

4.03.53.43.64.44.03.6

4.74.24.24.44.64.0

General merchandise imports (customs value) 3

Total

244.0258.0325.7345.3365.4406.2441.0

37.335.137.636.837.138.139.7

37.938.239.539.040.539.1

Principal end-use commodity category

Foodsfeeds,and

bever-ages

17.118.221.021.924.424.824.8

1.91.92.22.02.12.12.2

2.22.02.12.02.22.0

Indus-trialsup-pliesand

materi-als

112.0107.0123.7113.9101.3111.0118.3

10.29.7

10.29.39.99.8

10.2

10.710.011.011.311.711.3

Cap-ital

goodsexceptauto-

motive

35.440.959.865.171.884.5

101.4

8.87.98.98.78.29.19.1

9.09.39.39.19.99.5

Auto-motivevehi-cles

parts,anden-

gines

33.340.853.566.878.285.287.7

7.36.67.27.67.77.58.0

7.47.67.77.37.26.7

Con-sumergoods(non-food)

exceptauto-

motive

39.744.960.068.379.488.795.9

8.07.98.18.08.18.39.0

7.78.38.38.38.58.4

Other

6.56.37.89.4

10,412.112.8

1.11.11.11.11.11.21.2

.91.01.11.11.11.1

Generalmer-

chandiseimports

(c.i.f.value)

254.9269.9346.4352.5382.3424.4459.5

38.836.539.238.238.639.641.3

39.539.741.240.742.240.7

Trade halance

Exports(f.a.s)less

imports(customs

value)

-27.5-52.4

-101.7-126.5-138.3-152.1-118.5

-10.6-8.5

-10.1-9.2-9.2

— 10.5-10.8

-8.9-9.4-9.5-8.3

-10.1-8.2

Exportsft.a.s)less

imports(c.i.f.)

-38.4-64.2

-122.4-133.6-155.1-170.3-137.1

-12.1-9.9

-11.7-10.6-10.7-12.1-12.5

-10.5-10.9-11.2-9.9

-11.7-9.8

1 Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments.2 Includes undocumented exports to Canada.3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.4 Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical

NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands.


35


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSIn the second quarter, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $27.7 billion, from $28.4 billion (revised) in the firstquarter.

BILL

10

5

0

-5

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40

-45

ONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLL/

^—--\'"1

V— X

1 1 1

1981

SEASONALLY AOJUS

OURCE: DEPARTMEN

r-'/O

I V\

1 1 11982

TED

OF COMMERCE

A

' \

A\

A \\

\\\

\\

"X

1 1 1

1983

N BALANCE ON GOODS. t A Kin SFRUirpt;

V 1%N^V

I 1 11984

'O-N'V-^-v. x

-\\_\

ERCHANDISE

BALANCE

1 1 1

1985

/\

v

\ \/

1 1 I

1986

\\ ir_.^j .

1 1 11987

X J *"v^xS"/ BALANC

CURRENT A

1 1 1

1988

COUNCIL OF

)--

E ON:COUNT

1 1 1

1989

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

\RS*

10

5

0

-5

-10

15

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40

-45

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits ( —)]

Period

1980198119821983198419851986198719881986: I

ninIV

1987- InmIV

1988: InmIV

1989: I"

Merchandise 1 2

Exports

224,269237,085211,198201,820219,900215,935223,367250,266319,25153,89956,79656,18256,49057,25560,01564,29768,69976,44778,47180,60483,729

r87,91990,866

Imports

-249,749-265,063-247,642-268,900-332,422

338 083-368,425

409 766-446,466-89,549-90,812-92,983-95,081

95 916-99^834- 104,903-109,113- 109,893- 109,882-110,943-115,748

r- 116,297— 118,584

Net balance

-25,48027 978

-36,44467 080

-112,522122 148

-145,058159 500

-127,215-35,650-34,016-36,801-38,591-38,661-39,819-40,606-40,414-33,446-31,411-30,339-32,019

r -28,378-27,718

Investment income 3

Eeceipts

72,50686,41283,54877,25185,90888,83288,615

104,703107,77523,97022,07821,74420,82225,11722,74423,57833,26526,75023,14824,72033,15926,862

Payments

-42,11952 329

-54,88452 376

-67,419-62,901-66,968

82 420- 105,548-17,357-17,533-15,729-16,350

19 755-2o',554-21,904-20,207-23,955-25,613-27,310-28,670-30,370

Net

30,38734,08328,66424,87518,48925,93121,64722,283

2,2276,6134,5456,0154,4725,3622,1901,674

13,0582,795

-2,465-2,590

4,489-3,508

Netmilitarytransac-

tions

2 577-1,523

474-3432 099

-3,5574 576

-2,8574 606

-1,411-1,298-1,089

-777-176-210

-1,031-1,440

-964-1,033-1,006-1,604-1,482

Nettravel andtranspor-

tationreceipts

997144992

-4,227-7,885-9,832-8,031-7,324-2,633-2,452-1,465-1,874-2,241

-2',088-1,279-1,993-1,854

-719-155

94-464

Otherservices,

net3

7,79411,08511,43612,26412,29912,35118,54717,90920,335

4,6204,5814,5394,8074,2504,3724,5554,7344,7875,0425,1265,3815,823

Balance ongoods andservices

9,12615,8102,191

-34,510-91,718-97,256

-117,470-129,488

111 892-28,280-27,653-29,210-32,330-31,190-35,555-36,687-26,055-28,682-30,586-28,964-23,659-27,265

Remit-tances,

pensions,and otherunilateral

trans-fers *

7 593-7,647

9 188-9/77612 468

-15,42615 778

-14,21214 656

-3,068-4,199-4,376-4,136-3,137-3,265-3,225-4,586-3,364-2,899-3,376-5,018-3,420

Balanceon current

account

1,5338,163

-6,997-44,286

-104,186112 682133 249

-143,700- 126,548-31,348-31,852-33,586-36,466-34,327-38,820-39,912-30,641-32,046-33,485-32,340-28,677-30,685

1 Excludes military.2 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.3 Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the

United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.


36


U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—ContinuedIn the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $22.6 billion in the first quarter of1989, compared with an increase of $30.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 1988. Liabilities to private foreignersreported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $10.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with anincrease of $32.2 billion in the fourth quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

20

-20

-40

20CHANGE INU.S. ASSETS

ABROAD, NET

-20

-40

1P81

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1989

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

198019811982198319841985198619871988

1986: InmIV

1987: InmIV

1988: InmIV

1989: I"

U.S. assets abroad, net[increase /capital outflow (— )]

Total

-86,118-110,951-121,153

49 777-22,304

32 628-99,665

76 218-82,110

-15,401-24,763-26,078-33,422

8,759-22,632-25,976-36,370

4,540-16,119-37,886-32,648

-31,816

U.S.officialreserve

assets 1 z

-8,1555 175

-4,965-1,196-3,131-3,858

3129,149

-3,566

-11516

280132

1,9563,419

323,742

1,50339

-7,3802,272

-4,000

Other U.S.Govern-

mentassets

-5,162-5,097-6,131

5006-5,489

2 821-2,024

9972,999

-232-238

-1,56511

40-195

308843

1 490-8851,9613,413

1,012

U.S.privateassets

-72,802-100,679-110,058

43 576-13,685-25,950-97,954

86 363-81,543

-15,054-24,541

24793-33,565

6,763-25,856-26,316-40,955

4,528-15,273

32 467-38,332

28 828

•Foreign assets in the U.S., net[increase/capital inflow ( + )] 2

Total

58,11283,03293,74684,869

102,621130,012221,605218,039219,299

39,04850,29169,92762,339

33,38151,13473,57559,949

27,02765,33446,17980,759

49,077

Foreignofficialassets

15,4974,9603,5935,8453,140

-1,08335,59445,19338,882

2,72015,83815,785

1,251

14,04010,329

75320,070

24,6315,8952 234

10,589

6,914

Otherforeignassets

42,61578,07290,15479,02399,481

131,096186,011172,847180,418

36,32834,45354,14261,088

19,34140,80572,82239,879

2,39659,43848,41370,170

42,163

Allocationsof specialdrawingrights

(SDRs)

1,1521,093

Statistical discrepancy

Total (sumof the itemswith signreversed)

25,32218,66334,4049,194

23,86915,29811,3081,878

-10,641

7,7016,324

- 10,2637,549

-7,81310,318

-7,6877,062

479-15,729

24,047-19,434

13,424

Of which:Seasonal

adjustmentdiscrepancy

3,5153 306

-4,6694,463

3,8952559

-4,5013,166

3,843-3,714-4,556

4,431

4,264

U.S. officialreserve

assets, net *(unadjusted,

end ofperiod)

26,75630,07433,95833,74734,93443,18648,51145,79847,802

44,91946,59548,08748,511

48,82445,14045,07045,798

43,18641,02847,78847,802

49,854

1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserveposition in the IMF.

2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of theTreasury.

37


ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page

Gross National Product 1Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars 2Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product 2Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures 3Nonfmancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits 3National Income 4Personal Consumption Expenditures 4Sources of Personal Income 5Disposition of Personal Income 6Farm Income 7Corporate Profits 8Gross Private Domestic Investment 9Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 11Selected Unemployment Rates 12Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs 13Nonagricultural Employment 14Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries 15Employment Cost Index—Private Industry 15Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization 17Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures 18New Construction 19New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates 19Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade 20Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 21

PRICESProducer Prices 22Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 23Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods 24Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers 24Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures 26Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets 27Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base 27Bank Loans and Securities 28Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business 29Consumer Installment Credit 29Interest Rates and Bond Yields 30Common Stock Prices and Yields 31

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt 32Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 33Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICSIndustrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries 35U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports 35U.S. International Transactions 36

General Notes

Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.Symbols used:

p Preliminary.' Revised.c Corrected.... Not available (also, not applicable).NSA not seasonally adjusted.

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