ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

Franco Sassi PhDOECD – Health Division

Rome, 14th November 2013

UN High-level Meeting on NCDs

Leading Risk Factors for HealthAttributable Mortality, 2004

Source: WHO, 2009

2004 2015 20300

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

High income Higer-middle incomeLower-middle income Low income

Deaths from NCDsWorldwide, by Income Group

Source: WHO estimates and projections, 2008

Obesity: a Global Epidemic

India

China

Russia

OECD

Brazil

S Africa

UK

Mexico

% of adult population

0% 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

• In Brazil, obesity tripled in men and doubled in women in 30 years; in India, up to 40% are overweight in urban areas

• Diabetes in China is now as common as in the US

• Obesity accounts for less than 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China

The OECD/WHO CDP Model

Physical activityadequate physical actinsuff .physical act

Body mass index

normal weightpre-obesityobesity

Blood pressurenormalhypertension

Cholesterolnormal

hypercholesterolemia

Glycaemianormaldiabetes

Cancers

Stroke

Ischemic heart

disease

Fatlow fat intakemedium fat intakehigh fat intake

Fibreadequate fibre intakelow fibre intake

Socio-economic statusupperlower

A Comprehensive & Affordable Prevention Package

OECD Countries Emerging Economies

Mass media campaigns Mass media campaigns

Compulsory food labelling Compulsory food labelling

Industry self-regulation of food advertising to children

Government regulation of food advertising to children

Physician-dietician counselling Fiscal measures

School-based interventions

Canada Europe Brazil China

24.03 $/cap 22.45 $/cap 0.40 $/cap 0.20 $/cap

What Can Prevention Achieve?

Prevention Keeps HealthyYears of Life Free of NCDs

0 7 14 21 28 35 42 490

100000002000000030000000400000005000000060000000700000008000000090000000

100000000

Time (years)

Mill

ion

life

year

s

0 7 14 21 28 35 42 490

100000002000000030000000400000005000000060000000700000008000000090000000

100000000

Time (years)

Mill

ion

life

year

s

Europe China Brazil Canada

Cancers (lung, colorectal, breast) Cardiovascular diseases

An Affordable Prevention Package

0

1

2

3

4

5

Tobacco useAlcohol use

US$

per

hea

d

4.5

1.2

0.4

Prevention is a Good InvestmentImpact on Health Expenditure

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

EuropeCanadaBrazilChina

Time (years)

$ / c

apit

a

% Decrease Rrequired in Fat Consumption

COUNTRIES % decrease on average (2012-2021)

Argentina -0.9

Australia -1.4

Brazil -0.9

Canada -1.2

Chile -0.9

China -0.8

European Union -1.1

India -0.7

Japan -0.8

Korea -0.8

Mexico -1.4

New Zealand -1.4

Russian Federation -0.8

United States -1.4

Scenario 1 Results

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-5-4-3-2-101

Atlantic beef world price

% differ-ence

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Cheese world price% differ-ence

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-3

-2

-1

0

Vegetable oil world price

% differ-ence

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-3

-2

-1

0

Coarse grains world price

% difference

SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO guidelines

EU NZL AUS USA BRA RUS ARG MEX CHN

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Reductions to meet 10% calorie intake

Scenario2 Results

baseline scenario 10%

baseline scenario 10 %

Consumption Production

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000Bovine consumption and production (kt)

USABRAE27CHN

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Pacific beef and veal price (USD/t)

baselinescenario

Scenario2 Results

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Vegetable oil world price

baseline scenario

Scenario2 Results

Key Policy Implications

• Obesity and NCDs are global economic issues

• Food and nutrition policies must be part of a comprehensive intersectoral prevention strategy

• Potential for major health, health expenditure and productivity gains

• Limited effects on world markets imply such changes should be economically sustainable over the medium and long term