economic impacts of the 13 mile woods community forest ......community forests both need and benefit...

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EconomicImpactsofthe13MileWoodsCommunityForestinErrol,NewHampshire

Prepared for the Community Forest Collaborative

By Elizabeth Reaves and Marta Ceroni

DonellaMeadowsInstitute2BeaverMeadowsRoad,Norwich,[email protected],802-432-8930March2013

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Acknowledgements

This work is a reflection of the generosity of many people who gave their time, shared their

knowledge, and continue to work hard to support the Town of Errol, the 13 Mile Woods

Community Forest, and the Community Forest Ownership Model.

In particular, the authors would like to acknowledge 13 Mile Woods Association members Bill

Freedman, Charlie Kurtz, and Pierre Rousseau as well as New Hampshire Fish and Game

Region 1, Wildlife Biologist, Will Staats, Fisheries Biologist, Diane Timmins, and Wildlife

Programs Supervisor, Kent Gustafson. Phoebe Backler provided great insight into the

economic benefits of paddlers along the Northern Forest Canoe Trail.

Greg Ainsworth, Consulting Forester for the 13 Mile Woods provided timber harvest data and

knowledge about the past, present, and future of the forest industry in New Hampshire.

Special thanks to Julie Renaud Evans, Director of Forestry for The Northern Forest Center.

Julie provided invaluable knowledge, time, and resources about the benefits of community

ownership of forestland and insight into the unique and special ecological, recreation, and

timber stocking attributes of the 13 Mile Woods Community Forest.

J.T. Horn, Project Manager for The Trust for Public Land, provided great insight into the

unique qualities of the Great North Woods, perspective on the history of forest ownership and

management in New England and the balance between conservation and working land, the

process involved in the purchase of the 13 Mile Woods parcels, and the role The Trust for

Public Land played in the process.

Prior work by the Community Forest Collaborative, the Northern Forest Center, and The Trust

for Public Land provided case studies and research on the Community Forest Ownership

Model that made our work easier. Sarah Parkinson, communication specialist at the Donella

Meadows Institute, improved the manuscript with key editorial work.

Elizabeth Reavesisasocialresearcherwhospecializesincommunitydevelopmentandsustainability.Herworkisinformedbydeeplistening,community-basedresearch,andanappreciationforthecomplexinteractionsbetweensocial-economicsystemsandtheenvironment.Marta Ceroni directstheSustainableEconomiesProgramoftheDonellaMeadowsInstituteinNorwich,Vermont.Shecombinesabackgroundinforestecologywithexpertiseintheeconomicsofsustainableforestmanagementandconservation.

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Contents

Executive Summary 4

EconomicImpactofTimber(2005-2012) 4

EconomicImpactofRecreation 5

FutureOpportunitiesforEconomicContributionsbytheCommunityForest 6EconomicDevelopment 6MarketingandCommunication 6CommunityEngagement 6

Goals and rationale of the study 7

Introduction 8

RegionalTrendsinTimberandRecreation 10

LandPurchase 11FinancingtheAcquisition 11EconomicandSocialBenefitsofCommunityForestOwnership 15

Economic Impacts 16

TimberRevenues 16OtherTimberManagementData 17Jobs 18

MultiplierEffectsofTimberSales 19

RecreationalRevenues 20

MultiplierEffectsofRecreationandJobCreation 22

Opportunities 23

EconomicDevelopmentOpportunities 23

MarketingandCommunicationOpportunities 24

OpportunitiestoSupporttheCommunity 24

Authors’ Conclusions 25

Appendix 26

Cited References 39

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Executive Summary In2005,theTownofErrolpurchased5,269acresofforestlandintheirtown,creatingthe13MileWoodsCommunityForest.In2009,theyadded1,839acrestothiscommunityforest.Nowsevenyearsintotheirownership,thisreportanalyzesandquantifiesthecurrentandfutureeconomicbenefitsrealizedbytheTownofErrol,NewHampshireandthesurroundingregionfromthe7,108acresofcommunity-ownedforestknownas13MileWoods.NaturalassetsnowownedandmanagedbytheTownofErrolincluderarefloodplainforest,troutstreams,andmaturehardwoodandsoftwoodforestsstockedwithapproximately$6millioninstandingtimbervalue.ThisreportconcludesthattheTownofErrolmadeawisetimberinvestmentfortheTownandpeopleofErrol,andthecommunityforestsuccessfullydemonstratesanimportantownershipmodelthatisanalternativetofederallyprotectedareasandtoprivatetimberlands,thelatterofwhichareincreasinglysubjecttoshort-termownershipchanges.Thisownershipstructurealsoincludesaworkingforestconservationeasementthatmandatessustainableforestmanagementontheproperty,andpermanentlysecurespedestrianaccessandrightstotheforestresourceforresidentsandvisitorsinperpetuity;thisallowsforsustainedeconomicbenefitsandanopportunitytoplanforlong-termcommunitydevelopmentoptions.Afewelementsthatmakethe13MileWoodsCommunityForestasuccessstoryinclude:

• thehighvalueoftimberonthelandatthetimeofpurchase($5.9million)

• thepre-existingexperienceoftheTownwithowningforest

• twoexperiencedorganizationsthatsecuredresourcestofundthepurchaseofthepropertyandsetupagovernancestructure

• useofNewMarketTaxCreditswhichreducedborrowingneedfrom$2.2millionto$1.6million

• localvisionaryleadership

• partnershipwithStateofNewHampshireoneasementandmanagement

Economic Impact of Timber (2005-2012) Ownershipofforestland,andsustainabletimbermanagementandharvestingduringthefirstsevenyearshasallowedtheTownofErrolto:

• ownsignificantpropertywithoutimpactinglocalpropertytaxes

• controlthevisualassetofa13-milegatewayintothevillagecenter

• maintainahealthywell-stockedforest

• generatemorethan$1.7millioninnetrevenues

• maintaintwoyearsofreservefundsforpossiblemarketfluctuations

• purchaseanadditionalpieceofproperty

• generateover$2millioninearningsintheloggingsector

• annuallysupporttwolocalfull-time-equivalentjobsinforestryandlogging

• indirectlysupportanadditionaltenjobsinothersectorsofforestproductsmanufacturingeachyear

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Continuedsustainabletimbermanagementplannedforthenexttenyears(2013–2022)willresultinfurther22,229cordsoftimberproductstobeharvested.Thissustainableapproachwillgenerateanestimatedstumpagerevenueofover$1,070,000whichwillsupportloanpaymentsbythetownandemploymentintheforestryandloggingsector.

Economic Impact of Recreation ThehighnaturalqualityoftheforestandtheproximitytotheAndroscogginRivermaketheCommunityForestaprimaryRecreationalAsset.Currently,impactsofrecreationalvisitstoErrolarebasedonvisitsthatoccurintheareaincluding13MileWoods,MollidgewockStatePark,andUmbagogNationalWildlifeRefugeandspendingfromstatedata.

• AlargepercentageofrecreationandtourismactivitiesinNewHampshirearelinkedtotheforest,andevery1,000acresofforestsupports2.4forest-basedrecreationandtourismjobs,thoughcapturingrecreationexpendituresisachallenge(NEFA2011).

• Outdoorguidesbringout-of-statevisitorstotheforestandriverforhuntingandfishingexperiences.

• Snowmobiling,fishing,andhuntingprovideatotalfigureofmorethan$2.2millioninvisitorspendingcontributedtotheErrolareain2012.

• Huntingandfishingaccountformorethanhalfofvisitoreconomicimpact($1.24millionin2012).

• EstimatedrevenuesfromATVrecreation,assumingthattheplannedATVtrailiscompleted,couldresultinanaverageof3,000visitorsandmorethan$400,000inspendinginthefirstyearaftercompletion.

• Applyingmultiplierstorecreationalvisitordataindicatesover20jobsinErrolbeingsupportedbyrecreationalactivities,thoughthisisnotdirectlytiedtothecommunityforestownership.

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Future Opportunities for Economic Contributions by the Community Forest

Economic Development 1. Futuretimberrevenueswillbeavailableforcommunityneedsandpriorities.2. Furtherrecreationalpotentialoftheforestcanberealizedthrough:

• anunderstandingofthepresentandfutureusersoftheforest

• anassessmentoflodgingcapacityandaccessibility(especiallyforATVrecreation)

• capitalizingonnumerousnaturalassetssuchasthe11-miletrailthroughtheparcel,MunnPond,andaccesstotheNorthernForestCanoeTrail

• balancingmotorizedandnon-motorizedusewhenplanningtrails

Marketing and Communication Effectivecommunication,bothlocalandbeyond,willalsocontributetocapitalizingonrecreationopportunitiesinErrolandtheregion,opportunitiesinclude:

• interpretativesignageataccesspoints

• communicatingaccessandpermittedusesintheforest

• educatebusinessownersaboutrecreationalopportunitiesintheforest

• collaboratewithothersmarketingtheregion’sassetsandopportunities

Community Engagement Communityforestsbothneedandbenefitfromindividualcommitmentaswellasbroadercommunityengagementandinvolvement.Errolshouldcontinuetomaintaintheforestasasourceofcommunityactivities,events,andpridesuchas:

• studyfeasibilityofusinglow-gradewoodfromthe13MileWoodsCommunityForesttoheatlocalhomesortheschool

• fullyengageschoolchildrenintheforest

• promoteandcelebratetheforestthroughregularfieldtripsandevents

• bothsharewithandlearnfromothercommunityforestownersandmanagers

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Goals and rationale of the study ThegoalofthestudyistodetailandquantifythecurrentandfutureeconomicbenefitsrealizedbytheTownofErrol,NewHampshire,localbusinesses,andthesurroundingregionfromthe7,100acresofcommunity-ownedforestknownas13MileWoods.Objectivesincludedassessingtheeconomicimpactofsustainableforestryandoutdoorrecreation,identifyingkeyeconomicbenefitsofcommunityownershipstructure,anddiscussingchallengesandopportunitiesfor13MileWoods.Overallthereportshouldreadasanattempttodescribetheeconomicbenefitsofcommunity-ownedforestforthetownofErrol,thelocaleconomy,andtheregionatlarge.ThisreportwascommissionedbyTheCommunityForestCollaborative,apartnershipamongTheTrustforPublicLand,NorthernForestCenter,andtheQuebecLabradorFoundation.TheCollaborativeseekstoexpandcommunityownershipandmanagementofforestlandinnorthernNewEnglandbybuildingonthetraditionoftown-ownedforests.TheCollaborativehasdevelopedaCommunityForestModelthatconsistsofthefollowingcomponents:

• Foreststhatareownedandmanagedbyamunicipalentityorbyanothergroup(e.g.,landtrust)onbehalfofacommunity.

• Theproposedacquisitionandmanagementstructureensurescommunityparticipationinandresponsibilityformanagementdecisions.

• Thecommunityhassecureaccesstothevalueandbenefitsoftheforest,bothmonetaryandnonmonetary,thatcansupportandreinforcecommunityprioritiesandeconomicdevelopmentobjectives.

• Theconservationvaluesoftheforestlandarepermanentlyprotected.TheCollaborativehaspreviouslyproducedtworeportsthathavelaidoutthegeneraldescriptionoftheCommunityForestModel,presentedcasestudies,andidentifiedneedsandresourcestocreateandmanagecommunityforests.

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Introduction The13MileWoodsCommunityForestcoversanareaofapproximately7,100acres(Figure1).Thepropertyismanagedtoconserveopenspace,maintainasustainableworkingforest,enhancerecreationalopportunitiesforresidentsandtouristsalike,andtokeeptheforestopenandaccessibleformultipleuses.“Recreation will be a primary activity for both Errol residents and visitors at the 13 Mile

Woods property. People believe this property should be used to benefit the Town and that

visitors using the parcel for woods recreation is one way to boost the tourism trade for the

businesses in town” (13MileWoodsStewardshipPlan,2006).

13MileWoodsisamulti-useforestwithopportunitiesforpublicrecreationincludinghiking,hunting,fishing,crosscountryskiing,andsnowmobiling.ItincludesninemilesoffrontageontheAndroscogginRiver,MunnPond,andmaturehardwoodandsoftwoodforests.Itisalsoanimportantwildlifecorridor,containingrarefloodplainforestandtroutstreams(13MileWoodsStewardshipPlan,2006).Historicallythe13MileWoodsparcelhasnotbeenexcessivelyharvestedcomparedtoothertimberlandinthearea,resultinginarelativelyhealthytimberstockabletobemanagedsustainablyandtogenerateconsiderableincome(13MileWoodForestStewardshipPlan,2006;Interview,GregAinsworthandJulieRenaudEvans).

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Figure 1. Geographic location of the 13 Mile Woods Community Forest.

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Regional Trends in Timber and Recreation In2002,facedwithchanginglandownershippressures,thecitizensofErroldecidedtopurchasethe13MileWoodspropertyinordertomanageitasasustainableworkingforestfortimber,recreationandcommunityaccessbenefits,andtoprotectthescenicentranceintotown.Thepurchase,accomplishedin2005,putanendtoaseriesofrapidownershipchanges(describedinFigure2)thatreflectanationwidetrendincommercialforestlandholdings:20-25%ofallprivatelyownedforestlandhaschangedownershipsince1978andapproximately75%ofindustry-ownedprivateforestlandhaschangedhandsbetween1996and2005(Little,2005).Thesetrendswereparalleledbytheprogressivedisappearanceof

verticallyintegratedforestindustrycompanies,whichownedbothforestlandandthefacilitiestoprocessthewood.Intheirplace,timberlandinvestorsemerged,suchasTimberInvestmentManagementOrganizations(TIMOs)andRealEstateInvestmentTrusts(REITs).Theseownersdiffersubstantiallyfromindustrialownersintheirlandholdingobjectivesandhaveshorterinvestmenttimehorizonsanddifferentmanagementcapacities(Blissetal.,2010).Traditionally,muchoftheforestlandinprivatetimbercompanyownershiphasbeenopentopublicaccess.Thisaccessisthreatenedastimbercompaniesselltheirlandstootherprivateowners(SmithandDarr,2002).Inthe1990stherewasasignificantshiftinlandownershippatternsinnorthernNewEngland.Between1994and1999,over3millionacresformerlyheldbyindustrialownersweresoldtootherownertypes(NFC/NCC,2008).Today’sinventoryreportsnolongerreferto“industriallands,”but“businessowners”makeup9%ofNewHampshire’slandowners.Eachoftheseownershasdifferentobjectivesfortheuseoftheirland,whichmaynotincludeopenaccessforrecreation.Inaddition,newresidentsoftenbringdifferentviewsregardingforestaccessibility.AlargepercentageofrecreationandtourismactivitiesinNewHampshirearelinkedtotheforestbecauseitsodominatesthelandscape(NEFA2011).TheUNHCooperativeExtensionServiceestimatesthat75%ofrecreationalactivitieswouldnottakeplaceinNewHampshirewithoutthepresenceoftheforest.Thelargestpercentageofspendingbyoutdoorrecreationtouristsisonfood,lodging,andtravel–directlybenefitinglocalbusinessesthatcatertorecreationvisitors(OutdoorIndustryAssociation,2012).About11,041peoplearedirectlyemployedinrecreationandtourismasaresultoftheforestwithpayrollsof$187millionannuallyduetoforestrelatedrecreationinNewHampshire(NEFA2011).Overall,thesedocumentedandprojectedchangesinownershipchallengeforest-basedcommunitiestofindnewwaystomaintaintheruralcharacterofthelandscape,preserve

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theirtraditionsandculture,aswellasprotectavaluableeconomicasset;forest-basedbusinessesandjobs,inbothforestryandrecreation-basedindustries.

Land Purchase The13MileWoodspropertyhasbeenownedandmanagedastimberlandforover100yearsbyavarietyofowners.Figure2describesthechangesofownershipinthepast20yearsandsalientphasesofthelandpurchasebytheTownofErrol.Thescenicvalueofthe13MileWoodsstretchoflandwasrecognizedasearlyasthe1970’swhenamultiplelandowneragreementexistedtomaintainascenicbufferalongNewHampshire’sRoute16.Figure 2. Property Ownership Changes.

Thedecisiontopurchasethispropertycameafterthreeyearsofconversationsatthetownlevel.Thetownspeopleunderstoodthevalueofthetimberinvestment,butalsofeltstronglythatitwascriticaltoprotectandcontrolthisbeautifulstretchoflandleadingintothevillage.

Financing the Acquisition Thepurchaseofthe13MileWoodsin2005bytheTownofErrolfromtheLymeTimberCompanywasfacilitatedbytheCommunityForestCollaborative,especiallyCollaborativepartnersTheTrustforPublicLandandtheNorthernForestCenter.Fundingtosupportthe$4,050,000purchasepricecamefrommultiplesources.TheTrustforPublicLandhelpedsecureacommitmentfora$1,640,000grantfromtheUSDAForestLegacyProgram.ThroughthisprogramtheStateofNewHampshireholdsaconservationeasementonthepropertytopermanentlyprotectitfromdevelopmentandtomaintainitasaworkingforest.TheTrustforPublicLandalsohelpedsecurea$350,000grantfromtheStateofNewHampshire’sLandandCommunityHeritageInvestmentProgram(LCHIP).

Until 1992

Owners of the

Mill in Berlin

John Hancock

Insurance Company

2002

Town of Errol decides

to purchase land

2009

13 Mile Woods

Association buys an

additional 1,839 acres

Crown Vantage

Company

2000

Lyme Timber

Company

2005

13 Mile Woods

Association is

born. It secures

funds and buys

5,269 acres

2012

13 Mile Woods Association

transfers ownership and

management to the Town

of Errol

2023-2025

Town of Errol pays

off its loan

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However,evenaftertakingthesegrantsintoaccount,thereremainedagapof$2,060,000plustransactioncosts.Errolresidentsvotedtoauthorizethetowntoborrowneededfundstoenablethepurchasetooccur,however,theamountneededtoborrow,inexcessof$2.1million,wasmuchtoohighcomparedtotheappraisedvalueofthepropertywiththeconservationeasement.Assuch,theloanwouldthereforenotbeabankableloan.TheNorthernForestCenter(the“Center”),workingwiththeTownandTheTrustforPublicLand,addressedthisbarrier,enablingtheprojecttobecompleted,byfacilitatingandcoordinatingthedevelopmentofaNewMarketsTaxCredit(NMTC)financingtoreducetheamountoffundsneededtobeborrowedbytheTown.TheCenterbroughtinCEICapitalManagement,whichhadanallocationfromtheU.S.TreasuryDepartmenttoissuefederaltaxcredits.NMTCfinancingsinvolveacomplexstructureoflimitedliabilitycompaniesthatcanreceiveanequityinvestmentfromabankandcaninturnprovidesubsidizedfinancingtoaproject.Thebankgetsasignificantreturnfromreceivingtaxcreditsagainsttheirfederalincometaxes,andthisinturnenablestheNMTCprogramtoprovideasubsidizedfinancingtoaproject.TheresultofusingtheNMTCprogramwasthattheTownofErrolneededtoborrowlessthan$1.7millionfromacombinationofFirstColebrookBankandTheTrustforPublicLand(usingfundslenttoitbytheOpenSpaceInstitute).Giventheeconomicsoftheproject,thisreducedamountofborrowingwasindeedquitefeasibleandbankable.TheuseofNMTCalsoresultedinthecreationofanewnon-profit,the13MileWoodsAssociation,whichownedandmanagedthepropertyonbehalfofthecommunityfortheseven-yearlifeoftheNMTCstructure.InDecember2012,theNMTCstructurewasextinguished,andownershipofthepropertywastransferredtotheTownofErrol.ThegrantsfromForestLegacyandLCHIPandtheuseofNMTCtofinancetheremainingprojectamountallowedtheprojecttobecompletedwithouttheneedtouseanylocaltaxes.Thetotalfinancingpackageof$4,383,000accountedforthepurchasepriceof$4,050,000,plusanaggregatetotalof$333,000invarioustransactioncosts,fees,andcarryingcosts. Sources of Funds for Purchase of 13 Mile Woods ForestLegacyProgram $1,640,000LCHIP 350,000SourcesofFundsChanneledthroughNMTCFirstColebrookBankLoantoTown $1,381,872TrustforPublicLandLoantoTown300,000FirstColebrookBankEquityInvestmentinLLC711,128Total $4,383,000

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Figure 3. Funding mix for the purchase of the 13 Mile Woods Community Forest.

Note: *Funding secured through the use of New Market Tax Credits.

ForestManagement:InpreparationfortheDecember2005acquisition,thetownworkedwithforesterstodevelopacomprehensiveStewardshipPlantoguidethemanagementofthisparcel.Theplanincorporatedecologicalconditions,timberinventorydata,publicinputonmanagementobjectives,andtherequirementswrittenwithintheeasementheldbytheStateofNewHampshire.FromJanuary2006untilDecember2012,thepropertywasintensivelyandsustainablymanagedbythe13MileWoodsAssociationboardmembers,withtheguidanceofprofessionalforesters,oversightfromtheStateofNewHampshire(easementenforcement)andbiologistswithNewHampshireFishandGameDepartment(representingcountyzoninglaws).Multipleloggingcontractorswerehiredformanytimberharvests.Theboardwasalsoactiveinmanagingissuesthataccompanyforestlandownership;gates,abuseofroads,signage,andthedevelopmentofnumerouspolicies.Throughoutthistime,theBoardworkeddiligentlytobewiseintheirtimberharvestingandusedthatrevenuetopaydowntheirloan.AdditionalAcquisition:In2009,the13MileWoodsAssociationwasabletoacquireanadditional1,839acresontheeastsideoftheAndroscogginRiverasanadditiontothecommunityforest.TheTrustforPublicLandfacilitatedtheacquisition.Thetracthadafairmarketvalueof$570,000andtheTownofErrolcontributed$75,000forthepurchasewithTheTrustforPublicLandraisingtherest.ThisparcelalsohasaForestLegacy

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conservationeasementthatpreventsdevelopmentoftheland,butallowsforsustainableforestryandrecreationaluses.Bycombiningthetwopiecesoflandanddevelopingasinglemanagementplan,the13MileWoodsAssociationcouldshowthattheywereabletoharvestmoretimberannuallywhilestillkeepingtimbergrowthandharvestinasustainablebalance.RecreationalInvestment:TheBoardalsoworkedtodevelopaneleven-miletrailtoprovidealternativesnowmobileaccessintotown.Errol’seconomydependsuponsignificantsnowmobiletrafficinthewinterthatcomesintothevillageforgasoline,food,andotherservices.Themosaicoftrails,manyofwhichgothroughprivatelands,canbevulnerabletobadsnowyears,butalsowhenthelandownersneedtoblocktrailuseduringwintertimberharvests.Thelocationofthe13MileWoodspropertyistrulyagatewayparallelingboththestatehighwayandthestatenetworkofsnowmobiletrailsintotown.Theconstructionofaneleven-milestretchofnewtrailthroughthecommunityforestpropertynowprovidesanalternaterouteforwintervisitors.TheBoardsecuredoutsidefunds($150,000),obtainedrequiredpermits,andbuiltanewmulti-usetrailthroughthecommunityforest.EndofYear7:AsofDecember31,2012,theremainingloanbalanceonthe13MileWoodspropertywasabout$850,000.Thetimbercontinuestobeharvestedonasustainablebasis.Thoughtheinitialplannedharvestlevelsoutlinedinthestewardshipplanhavebeencompleted,theadditionofnewacreagein2009extendedtheinventoryavailableforharvest.Ifenvironmentalormarketconditionsprohibitharvestinginanygivenyear,thetownisabletocovercostsandpaymentsfromreservefunds.Ithasbeencalculatedthatbeginningin2015,theforestcansustainanannualharvestofapproximately2,500cords.Withsalepricespercordrangingfrom$55(afterloggingcosts)to$48(afterforester’sfees)1meanannualrevenuesfromtimbermayrangefrom$137,500(grossfigure)to$120,000(netfigure).

1 Figures provided by Greg Ainsworth

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Economic and Social Benefits of Community Forest Ownership Errolresidentsviewedthepurchaseof13MileWoodsasawaytomaintaintheruralcharacterofthetownandasaneconomicdevelopmentopportunity.Sustainableforestmanagementwillprovidesustainablerevenuetothetown.Additionally,thecombinedforest,trails,andriverareimportantrecreationalassetsinthetownforresidentsandvisitors(Interview,PierreRousseauandJulieRenaudEvans).Thereisgreateconomicopportunityinprovidingsupportservicestothisrecreationaluse.Thecommunityforestmodelprinciplesoflong-termstewardshipandsustainableforestmanagementenabletheforesttobemanagedsothatitwillpredictablyproducetimberrevenueandprovideeconomicbenefitsbacktothetown;itisalong-term,low-riskinvestment.Dependingonthesizeoftheforest,foresttype,qualityoftimber,andmanagementplan,atowncanrealizerevenuesfromtimberharvestingoperationsandnon-timberforestproducts;supportinglocalorregionalenterprisessuchasconsultingforesters,localloggers,andsawmills;nottomentionthere-spending“multipliereffect”ofthosedollarswithinthelocaleconomy(BissonandLyman,2003).Thecommunityforestmodelalsopromotescommunityparticipationinmanagementdecisions.Thisprocessinherentlyresultsintheformationofnewpartnershipsandopportunities,bringingtogetherresidentsthatmaynothaveparticipatedinprevioustowncommittees,butareinterestedinforestuses.Althoughdifficulttoquantify,oftenacommunity,asinthecaseofErrol,mustformnewassociationsandgovernancestructurestomanagetheforest(CommunityForestCollaborative,2007).Atitsmostbasiclevel,itprovidesfornewvolunteerleadershipopportunitiesandhelpsbuildoverallcommunitycapacity.

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Economic Impacts The13MileWoodsCommunityForestisahealthywell-stockedmixed-woodecosystem.Theforest’ssustainabletimbermanagementisguidedbyacomprehensiveStewardshipPlan,conservationeasementdetailsmonitoredbytheStateofNewHampshire,professionalforesters,andwildlifebiologists.Duringtheinitialsevenyearsofownership,thefollowingfinancialbenefitswererealizedfromitstimbermanagementprogram:

Timber Revenues • Totalsalesexceeded$3.7millionandtotalnetrevenueswereover$1.7million

(Table1).

• Paymentstolocalloggingcontractorswereover$2million.

• Revenueswereusedtopay50%ofinitialpurchaseloanwithinsevenyears.

• Harvestingplannedforthenexttenyears(2013–2022)willresultin22,229cordsoftimberproducts,foranestimatedstumpagerevenueof$1,070,000(Table2andFigure4).

Table 1. Yearly timber revenues and logging costs from 2006 to 2012.

Year Gross Revenue Contractor Cost Net Revenue

2006 $1,799,310.70 $1,087,437.70 $711,873.00

2007 $892,390.55 $469,718.15 $422,672.40

2008 $288,651.40 $107,954.18 $180,697.22

2009 $525,274.36 $247,706.09 $277,568.27

2012 $209,236.61 $96,449.03 $112,787.58

TOTAL $3,714,863.62 $2,009,265.15 $1,705,598.47

SeetheAppendixformoreinformationonspeciescompositionandtimberproductsinthestandingtimber.TheupdatedStewardshipPlanalsoprojectsasustainableharvestscheduleto2022.VolumesandexpectedrevenuesarepresentedinTable2.Table 2. Estimated harvested timber and net revenue. Estimated cords express the volume of timber to be harvested within each of the three phases of the harvesting plan.

Year Estimated cords Net Revenue

2013-2015 4,134 $200,000

2016-2018 7,755 $370,000

2019-2022 10,340 $500,000

TOTAL 22,229 $1,070,000

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Figure 4. Cords of timber harvested annually starting in 2006 and projected into 2022. There was no harvest in 2010 and 2011 due to poor market conditions.

Other Timber Management Data

• Inthefirstsevenyearsofownership(2006-2012),32,425cordsoftimberwereharvestedonthe13MileWoodsproperty;theproductsextractedwere60%pulpwood,39%sawlogs,and1%fuelchips(Figure5).

• Arecent(2012)comprehensiveinventoryoftheforestoneachsideoftheAndroscogginRiverrevealsawell-stockedpropertywith124,248cordsintimbervolumeforatotalestimatedstumpagevalueofover$5.9million.

• Eventualsustainabletimberharvestamountscouldrepresent10%ofErrol’stypicalannualmunicipalbudget.

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Figure 5. Annual harvests from 2006 to 2012 for different products (shown in blue, red and green). 1

1Theacceleratedharvestin2006and2007wasconsistentwiththeforest’ssustainabletimbermanagementplan.

JobsTimberharvestingisaseasonalindustryandeachyear’sproductiontimemaydependuponweather,siteconditions,plannedsilviculturaltreatment,andmarketconditions.Atimbermanagementprogramwithharvestingwillincludeforester,loggingcontractorandemployees,andtruckers.Eachwillhavemultiplelandownersoroperationsgoingonatanytime.Thereforecalculatingjobsisdoneindirectly,usingstandards,multipliers,andfull-timeequivalencies.InNewHampshireevery1,000acresofforestsupports1.7forestbasedmanufacturingjobs;thesearefurtherseparatedintofivecategories(NEFA2011):

• Woodproductsmanufacturing–47%

• Papermanufacturing–19%

• Furnitureandrelatedproducts–16%

• Forestryandlogging–16%

• Woodenergy-2% Onthe13MileWoodsCommunityForest,thereare7,100acresbeingactivelymanaged,andtherefore12jobsarebeingsupported:

• 2inforestryandlogging

• 6inwoodproducts

• 2inpulpandpaper

• 2infurnitureandrelatedproducts

Thefirstcategoryisthemostobviousplacefortheimpacttobefelt,infactErrolofficialsestimatedtheharvestingwassupportingtwofull-timeequivalentpositions(interviews

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AinsworthandRousseau).Theothersareindirect;woodfromthisforestisbeingsoldtomillstobeprocessedusinghumanlabor.Intheharvestsof2006and2007,theemploymentimpactwasprobablymuchgreater,perhapssevenfull-timejobsjustintheloggingcategory,butinthefutureErrolwillindeedbecontributingtosustainableemploymentintheregion(interviewEvans).

Multiplier Effects of Timber Sales Economicmultipliersindicatehowmuchagivenincreaseintimbersalescanripplethroughtheeconomyresultinginanincreaseintotaloutput,earnings,andjobsinthesupportingsectors.Rippleeffectsarehigherforgoodsandservicesproducedlocally,suchasinthecaseoftimberandthelodgingandrestaurantservices.Inruralregionsreducingeconomicleakageandreturningdollarsotherwisespentonimports(e.g.fuel)isthebestwaytobuildstrongereconomiesandrecirculatedollarsmultipletimes.BasedonmultipliersdevelopedbytheBureauofEconomicAnalysis,timbersalesripplingthroughtheregionaleconomyresultedinatotaloutputofmorethan$3milliondollarsin2006.TheregioninthecaseofthetimbereconomyreferstothecontiguouscountiesofCoos,NH,Oxford,ME,andFranklin,ME,coveringtheareawheremostoftheforestrelatedeconomicactivityislikelytotakeplace.Totalearningsinthesectoremployedinloggingwereestimatedat$644,872(Table3).Astimberharvestsdecreasedinvolume,sodidthedirectandindirectimpactsontheforestindustry. Table 3. Multiplier effects of timber sales in the first seven years of ownership by the Town of Errol. Prices not in current dollars.

Year Total sales Total output Total earnings

2006 $1,799,310.70 $3,314,150.38 $644,872.95

2007 $892,390.55 $1,643,694.15 $319,832.77

2008 $288,651.40 $531,667.01 $103,452.66

2009 $525,274.36 $967,502.84 $188,258.33

2012 $209,236.61 $385,392.91 $74,990.40

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Recreational Revenues Besidestheforestindustry,servicessupportingvisitorsandtourismranksecondineconomicimportanceintheregion.AlongwiththeAndroscogginRiver,muchoftheUmbagogNationalWildlifeRefugeandtwostateparkswithcampgroundsarelocatedwithinthetownaswell.Errol’seconomyisverydependentuponsignificantsnowmobiletrafficinthewinterandfishermeninthesummerforservicessuchasfood,gasoline,andlodging.Theownershipofthe13MileWoodsCommunityForestprovidesanimportantrecreationalasset,thoughrevenuederivedcanbeachallengetodocument.Benefitsfromthisownershipinclude:

• protectionoflengthyscenicapproachtothetowncenter

• propermanagementoftheforestresourcewhichensureshighqualitywaterinthestreamsfeedingtheAndroscogginRiver,animportantresourceforfishermenandboaters

• expansiveandintegratedsnowmobiletrailsystemwithinthetown,withimportantcomponentlocatedinthecommunityforest;Erroloccupiesastrategicpositioninthetrailnetwork

BillFreedman,along-timesupporteroftheCommunityForestoftensays“Ifnothealthyforestsandcleanwater,whyelsewouldthey[visitors]come?”Thesehealthyresourcesdoattractvisitors,andthestateofNewHampshiretracksvisitorspendingforavarietyofrecreationalactivities.DatabelowisextractedfortheareaofErrolandsurroundingamenities.AccordingtotheStateofNewHampshire,visitorspendingincludes:

• Annualvisitorspendingofover$2.2millionforsnowmobiling,fishing,andhuntingin2012(Table4).

• Snowmobilinghashighestvisitationestimatesofalluses,wellabove5,000visitsperseason(includingdayandovernightvisitors).

• Snowmobilingbringsaround$1millionperseasontothearea.

• Huntingandfishingbring$1.24milliontothearea.Snowmobiling,ATVuse,hunting,andfishingarerecreationalactivitiesthatarecurrentlybenefitingfromtheuseoftheforestandhavebeenidentifiedinthe13MileWoodsStewardshipPlanasactivitiesthatareimportanttolocalrecreationalistsandtourists.Thesearealsothefourmostmeasurablerecreationalactivities.Useoftherivercontinuestoincrease,butactivitiessuchascanoeing,kayaking,andtubingaredifficulttotrackwithoutintensivesurveys.13MileWoodsisopentohuntersandislocatedinoneofthemostpopularareasforhuntinginNewHampshire.

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Thestudyfocusesonestimatesofvisitorspendingthatoccursintheregionincluding13MileWoods,MollidgewockStatePark,andUmbagogNationalWildlifeRefuge.Whilethestudyisunabletoattributevisitationspecificallytothe13MileWoods,itiswellknownintheregionthatthesectionoftheAndroscoggininthecommunityforesthasexcellentqualityfishing.Likewise,theforestishighlyappreciatedbyprofessionalhuntingguidesforthequalityofthehuntingexperiencethattheycanoffertotheircustomers.Visitorspendingdatafocusonthetwomilestoneyearsof2012and2022,basedonthetimelinesetbytheharvestingschedule.TheATVtrailwon’tbefunctionaluntillaterin2013.Table4showsthenumberofestimatedvisitsandspendingforin-stateandout-of-statevisitorstotheErrolareaanditsnaturalamenities.Visitsareestimatedfromlocalregistrationsandlicensesdata,andrecordedvisitstoMollidgewockStateParkandUmbagogNationalWildlifeRefuge.Annualrecreationalvalueswerederivedbymultiplyingestimatesof1)recreationalvisits,and2)visitorspending.Forexample,ifthecommunityforestisexpectedtocauseanincreaseoftenadditionalsnowmobilervisitsperyear,andsnowmobilervisitstypicallyresultinspendingof$100pervisit,thenthepotentialannualrecreationalvalueis$1,000.TheATVtrail,whichwillbeaccessiblestartingin2013pendingthecompletionofstateandfederallandswap,isexpected tobring3,000visitorsannuallywithanassociatedpotentialspendingof$420,000. Table 4. Estimated visitation and spending from in-state and out-of-state visitors in 2012.

Activity Type of visitor Number of visits

Days per visit

Visitor Daily

Spending Total

Snowmobiling Stateresident 3,559 1.35 $83.74 $402,319.00

Non-stateresident 2,181 2.42 $120.80 $637,854.00

ATV Stateresident 0 0 $0.00 $0.00

Non-stateresident 0 0 $0.00 $0.00

Hunting Stateresident 471 7 $186.30 $614,643.85

Non-stateresident 83 7 $227.70 $132,570.24

Fishing Stateresident 434 5 $90.85 $197,144.50

Non-stateresident 266 5 $266.60 $301,311.50

TOTAL $2,285,843.09

EstimatingprojectedrecreationuseintheErrolregionwaschallenginggiventhecontrastingtrends,anationaltrendofdecline(e.g.forhuntingandfishing)andalocaltrendthatindicatessomelevelofgrowthgiventheuniquenessoftheareaandthefactthattheforestwillcontinuetoprovidehighqualityrecreationalexperiencesinthefuture.Intermsofsnowmobiling,projectionsassumeinconsistentfuturesnowfallamountsinnorthernNewHampshire.Duetothelackofregionspecificdataandtheconflictingtrendsmentionedabove,wedeemedreasonabletoassumealimitedlevelofyearlygrowththatweconservativelysetat1%acrossallrecreationtypesasdiscussedinmoredetailintheAppendix.

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Multiplier Effects of Recreation and Job Creation RIMSIImultipliersindicatehowmuchagivenincreaseintourismspendingoutputorintimbersalescanresultinincreaseintotaloutput,earnings,andjobsbystimulatingthedemandforgoodsandservicesinthesupportingsectors.Thetourismearningsmultipliertendstobehigherinlargerregionsandlowerinsmallerregionswhereearningsleakoutoftheeconomythroughimportinggoodsandservicestosatisfytourismdemand.Inaddition,jobestimatescanbedistortedbypart-timeandseasonalpositionsanddifferentwageratesacrosssectors.ThesearemorespecificallydescribedintheAppendix.ApplyingvariousappropriatemultiplierstoourrecreationuserdatagivestheseresultsforrecreationaljobimpactintheErrolarea:

• Approximately11jobsareassumedtobegeneratedintheregionasaresultofsnowmobilerspending,ofwhichfiveareinthehospitalitysector.

• ProjectedATVjobscreatedareabout50%ofsnowmobilingestimates,sothejobmultiplierresultsinfivejobsduetoATVuse.

• Currentvisitationratesforhuntingresultinsevenjobs.

• Fourjobsareestimatedtobeassociatedwiththecurrentandprojectedvisitorspendingofanglers.

AsthehospitalitycapacityofErrolincreaseswithlocalinvestment,especiallyinthelodgingsector,therearemeasurableimpactstobeforecasted:Forinstance,forevery$1milliondollarincreaseinspendingonlodgingtherewouldbe13fullorpart-timejobscreated.

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Opportunities The13MileWoodsCommunityForestisacommunityandeconomicasset.Duringthefirstsevenyearsofownershipthemanagersrightfullyfocusedonrevenuegenerationtoservicethepurchasedebt.Lookingforwardhowever,thetownhasmanyopportunitiestoseekmaximumreturnsfromthisinvestment,bothineconomicandsocialterms.Inalocalcontextthis7,100acreswillgrowtimber,supportjobsintheforestproductsindustry,andprovidenumerouschancesforcommunityengagementandparticipation.Fromamoreregionalview,theforestispartofalargerlandscapethatdrawsvisitorswhowillspendtheirmoneyhere.Timberrevenuescanbereinvestedinpromotingrecreationforevengreaterbenefitsforthetown.Inaddition,the13MileWoodsForestcouldplayacentralroleinbrandingtheareaforparticularrecreationexperiences,functioningasacatalyzerofeconomicdevelopment.Localfocus,combinedwithregionalactivityandcollaborationwillserveErrolincontinuingtobuildwealthfromthiscommunityasset.

Economic Development Opportunities Theforestneedstobemanagedasbothatimberassetandarecreationalassetinorderforthetowntomaximizebenefitsrealized.

• Timber

• Continuetoapproachforestmanagementinacomprehensivemannersothatthefullspectrumofvalueisrealizedandsustainable.

• Aftertheloanpaymentsareretired,thecommunitywilldecidespendingprioritiesfortheannualrevenuereceived.

• Carboncreditsshouldbeexplored.

• Recreation

• InvestigatetheperceivedlodgingcapacityissuerelatedtoATVvisitation.

• Capitalizeontheproximityofthe13MileWoodstotheMollidgewockStateParkandconsidercreatingawalkingtrailandfishingaccesstoMunnPond.

• Promotenon-motorizedrecreationandexplorepotentialcollaborationwiththeNorthernForestCanoeTrail.

• Identifyandunderstandwhothecurrentusersoftheforestareandwhothetargetusersoftheforestare,soastodevelopstrategiesformakingErroladestinationforsuchusers.

• Maintainabalanceofmotorizedandnon-motorizedinfrastructuretosupportbothtypesofrecreationinandaroundthecommunityforest.

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Marketing and Communication Opportunities Errolandtheregionwouldbenefitfromanefforttocommunicatethespecialnatureoftheforestthroughpromotion,permanentsignage,andeducationalopportunities.Morecommunicationwiththepublicandaclearpointofcontactforquestionsabouttheforestareneeded.Ininterviewswithlocalarearesidents,theaccessrules,permitteduses,andaccesspointsfortheforestwerenotclear.Forexample,residentswereconfusedaboutblockedroadsandaboutwhattypeofhuntingwaspermissibleandifpermissionwasneededtohuntontheproperty.Thereisaperceptionthattheforest,whileaccessible,isnotwelcoming.

• Investininterpretativesignageplacedatforestaccesspointsandinthetown.

• Educatelocalbusinessownersabouttheforest’snaturalassetssuchasMunnPond,theeleven-miletrail,andotherspecialplaces.

• Provideamaptolocalbusinesseshighlightingforestaccesspointsandrecreationalopportunities.

• Clarifytheusesofandaccesstotheforest.

• Identifyhowtowidelycommunicatepolicychangesregardinguseandaccessoftheforest.

• Designateapointofcontactandpublicizethatcontactwithlocalorganizationsandbusinessesinthearea.

• Collaboratewithbusiness,agencies,andorganizationswhoareworkingtobringandsupportvisitorstoErrol.

Opportunities to Support the Community Anengagedcitizenrymakesforaneffectivecommunity.Therearemultipleopportunitiestousetheforesttobringpeopletogetherandtoensureacommitmenttosustainablestewardship.

• Studythefeasibilityofheatingtownbuildingswithwood.

• Fullyengagetheteachersandschoolchildren–childreninvestedinthecommunityforestwillbetomorrow’sboardmembersandsupporters.

• Encouragemoreparticipationbycommunitymembersthroughcommittees,eventsandeducationalprograms.

• Scheduleregularfieldtripsandcelebrationsintheforesttohelpcommunitymembersgettoknowit.

• Sharetheexperienceandexpertisewithothercommunitieswhowanttoacquireandmanageland.

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Authors’ Conclusions TheTownofErroldemonstratesahighlysuccessfulinvestmentstrategy,whichbuildsontheassetsofasustainablymanagedforestincludingaccessformultiplerecreationuses,revenuetothetown,jobs,research,andeducationfunctions.The13MilesWoodsCommunityForesthighlightsaneffectivealternateownershipmodeltofederallyprotectedareasandtoprivatetimberlands,thelatterofwhichareincreasinglysubjecttoshort-termownershipchanges.Ontheroutetosuccess,theTownofErrolbenefitedfromstrongcommunityleadership,fromthehighvalueofthetimberonthe13MilesWoodsproperty,fromengagingwithtwoexperiencedorganizationsthatsmoothedoutthecomplexityofthepurchasingprocess,andfromhavingpriorexperiencewithowningforestland.

Overall,thedatapresentedinthisreportcanbeusedasabaselinethatinformsthecollectionoffutureinformationasawaytomeasureimpact.ThereportraisesthequestionofwhatsuccesswilllooklikeoncetheTownofErrolisabletodirectrevenuesfromtimberharvestsintothecommunityandintoaddingvaluetotheforestbyimprovingaccessandfruition.Additionalmeasuresofsuccessmightbenecessary,basedonasharedsenseofcommunitypriorities.

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Appendix

Methods Fourmainobjectivesguidedtheanalysis:

1. Assesspastandprojectedrevenuesfromsustainabletimberharvests.2. Estimatecurrentandprojectedchangesinthenumberofoutdoorrecreationistsand

totalspendingtotheregion.3. Determinespendingprofilesfornon-local(overnight)andlocal(day)visitors.4. Applymultiplierstoestimateeconomicimpactsofvisitorspendingandtimbersales

intheregionaleconomy.Datafortheanalysiscamefromseveralkeysources:

• inputfromlocalexpertsandbusinesses

• reviewofliteratureoneconomicimpactsoftourism,recreation,andparksystems

• NewHampshireStateEconomicImpactReportsonthebenefitsofATVs,Snowmobiling,Hunting,andFishing

• UmbagogandMollidgewockStateParkvisitationdata

• fishinglicensesales

• NewHampshireAnnualDeerHunterMailSurvey

• timberharvestandsalesdataThestudyincludedatwo-daysitevisittoErrolinSeptember2012,in-personmeetingswithkeystakeholders,andavisittotheforestundertheguidanceofJulieRenaudEvans.Interviewswereconductedwith:

• PierreRousseau,CharlieKurtz,andBillFreeman,membersofthe13MileWoodsAssociation

• ChristineCote,BusinessManager,LLCoteSportShop

• JulieRenaudEvans,NorthernForestCenter

• GregAinsworth,13MileWoodsConsultingForester

• KentGustafson,WildlifeProgramsSupervisor,NewHampshireFishandGame

• DianeTimmins,FisheriesBiologist,NewHampshireFishandGame

• WillStaats,WildlifeBiologist,NewHampshireFishandGame

• ChrisGamache,Chief,NHBureauofTrails

• GailHansen,ExecutiveDirector,NewHampshireSnowmobileAssociation

• PhoebeBackler,NorthernForestCanoeTrail

27

Timber data Timberharvestestimatesweremadeusinginventoryandtimbersalesdataprovidedby13MileWoodsAssociationConsultingForesterGregAinsworthandforecastbasedonthe201213MileWoodsStewardshipPlan.Thedatapresentedinthisreportisbasedon2012marketvaluesasopposedtonetpresentvaluesthatwouldreflecttheprogressivegrowthofthetimberstock.Thisismotivatedbythetypeofdataavailableandbythefactthatthepropertyiswellstockedwithmaturewoodreadytobeharvestedatanyonetime.Monetaryfiguresarenotcorrectedforinflation.Figure1showsthepercentageofstandingtimberineachtimberproduct.Pulpwoodproductsamountto63%ofthecurrentstandingvolume(52%inhardwoodand11%insoftwood).Ofthe37%volumeinsawlogs,15%ishardwoodand22%issoftwood.Figure2showsthecompositioninspeciesbasedupon2012inventory.Figure 2. Percent of standing timber within the different timber products.

Figure 3. Species composition of the standing timber (just sawlogs)

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Table1liststhemainsourcesfordataonvisitation(percentin-stateandout-of-state,averagedailyspending,averagelengthofstay,distributionofspendingacrosssectors).Table 1. Sources used for data on visitation.

Source Sector

U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,FishandWildlifeService,andU.S.DepartmentofCommerce,U.S.CensusBureau.(2006)NationalSurveyofFishing,Hunting,andWildlife-AssociatedRecreation.

HuntingandFishing

Emerson,D.,andSchafermeyer,A.(2004).AnEvaluationofaTailwaterTroutFisheryontheUpperConnecticutRiver.NewHampshireF5R20.

Fishing

InstituteofNewHampshireStateStudiesPlymouthStateUniversity.(2011).TheEconomicImpactofSpendingbySnowmobilersonNewHampshire’sEconomy.Okrant,M.,andGoss,L.

Snowmobile

InstituteofNewHampshireStateStudiesPlymouthStateUniversity.(2003).TheImpactOfSpendingByATV/TrailbikeTravelPartiesOnNewHampshire’sEconomyDuringJuly2002ToJune2003.Okrant,M.,andGoss,L.

ATV

AveragenumberofvisitsandlengthofstayintheareawereinformedbytheUmbagogandMollidgewockStateParkvisitationfigures;numberofanglersusingthestretchofriveralongtheAndroscogginthatborders13MileWoodswereestimatedbasedonfishinglicensesales(alltypes)soldinErrol;andnumberofdeerhuntershuntingintheErrolareawereestimatedbasedontheNewHampshireAnnualDeerHunterMailSurvey.EstimatesaboutvisitationtrendsandvisitorspendingwerebasedoneconomicimpactassessmentsfortheStateofNewHampshire.Thesectionsbelowdescribeinmoredetailtheassumptionsandthedatausedtocalculatevisitorspendingforeachrecreationalactivity.

Snowmobiling

Anumberofdifferentsourceswereusedtoestimatesnowmobilevisitation,including,NewHampshiresnowmobileregistrationsin2010-2011,registrationnumbersfromtheUmbagogSnowmobileAssociation,apersonalcommunicationwithCharlieKurtz,amemberoftheUmbagogSnowmobileAssociation,andaninterviewwithChristineCote,BusinessManager,attheErrolsportinggoodsstore,L.L.Cote.

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Estimatesforlocalandnon-localvisitation,averagenumberofdayspertrip,andaveragespendingpervisitwereestimatedusingthesurveyresultspublishedinthe2010-2011EconomicImpactofSpendingbySnowmobilersontheNewHampshireEconomy.Anannualgrowthrateofvisitationof1%wasassumedforsnowmobiling.Thelimitedamountofgrowthisbasedonthelikelihoodthattheregionwillcontinuetoseegreatvariabilityinsnowfall,lackingafullyreliablesnowcommercialseason.The2010-2011EconomicImpactofSpendingbySnowmobilersontheNewHampshireEconomyreportedthatfromagoodsnowyeartoabadsnowyear,statewideregistrationscandecline18%.TheUmbagogSnowmobileAssociationnotedsimilartrends,reportingthatregistrationsdroppedby50%duringthemostrecentbadsnowyear.OveralltemperaturetrendsforNewHampshireindicateincreasinglywarmerwintertemperatures,lesssnowfall,morewinterrain,andearliermeltingofsnowpackresultinginhigheconomiclosses(BurakowskiandMagnusson,2012).Frumhoffetal(2007)reportthatthelengthofthesnowseasoninthenorthernpartofNewHampshire,Vermont,andMaine-currentlysnow-coveredforalmosttheentirewinterseason-couldbereducedby50percentbytheendofthecentury,underhigher-emissionsscenariosandbymorethan25%underloweremissionsscenarios.Accordingtothestudy,onlynorthernNewHampshirewouldretainasnowmobileseasonlongerthantwomonthsifhigheremissionsprevail.

ATVs ATVusevisitswereprojectedwithestimatesfromlocalareaexperts,aninterviewwithChrisGamache,Chief,NewHampshireBureauofTrails,andresultsfroma2003studyonTheImpactofSpendingByATV/TrailbikeTravelPartiesOnNewHampshire’sEconomyDuringJuly2002ToJune2003.Estimatesforlocalandnon-localvisitation,averagenumberofdayspertrip,andaveragespendingpervisitwereestimatedusingthesurveyresultspublishedinTheImpactofSpendingbyATV/TrailbikeTravelPartiesonNewHampshire’sEconomyduringJuly2002ToJune2003.ATVvisitationandestimateddirectspendingtotalsassumethattheproposedATVtrailisapprovedbythestateandcompletedintimeforthe2013season.TakingintoaccountthenewlyestablishedtrailconnectingtothelargerATVnetworkthereisnodoubtthattherewillbeincreasedATVvisitation,butbecauseofthelimitedavailabilityofbedsinErrol,andstatewidetrendsthatshowastagnationinATVuseduetothelingeringeffectsoftheeconomicrecession,itreasonabletoestimatealimitedgrowthrateof1%peryear.Hunting HuntingvisitationestimateswereprojectedusingestimatesfromlocalareaexpertsincludingWillStaats,WildlifeBiologist,andKentGustafson,WildlifeProgramsSupervisorforNewHampshireFishandGame.FinalestimatesweremadeusingvisitationestimatesfromtheNewHampshireFishandGameDeerHunterMailSurvey,anannualsurveysenttoeveryhunterregisteredfortheyear.Inthissurveyhuntersareaskedtoreporttheirresidencyandwheretheyhunt.UsingonlytheDeerHunterMailSurveytoestimatehunter

30

visitationreflectsanunderestimateofvisitationestimate,asitdoesnotaccountforvisitationduringthepopularmoose,bear,andturkeyseasons.However,theAnnualDeerHunterMailSurveywasthemostaccuratesourceofvisitationestimatesavailablefortheErrolarea.Estimatesforpercentageofvisitationthatislocalandnon-localwerealsomadeusingtheNewHampshireFishandGameAnnualDeerHunterMailSurvey.Theaveragenumberofdayspertrip,andaveragespendingpervisitwereestimatedusingthesurveyresultspublishedinThe2006NationalSurveyofFishing,Hunting,andWildlifeRecreation:NewHampshire.Nationwideandstatewidestatisticsshowadecreasingtrendinhunting.Thepercentchangeinthenumberofhuntersfrom1996-2000decreasedby7%,anddecreasedby4%from2001-2006.However,giventhattheNorthCountryremainsaprimehuntingdestinationandbasedoninterviewswithlocalareaexperts,wedeemeditplausibletoprojectanannualvisitorgrowthrateof1%.

Fishing SomeofthebestfishingwatersinNewEnglandlayalongthestretchoftheAndroscogginRiverthatborders13MileWoodsCommunityForest.Anumberofdifferentsourceswereusedtoestimatevisitationincludinga2000surveyof313anglersalongtheUpperConnecticutRiver,thenumberoffishinglicenses(alltypes)soldin2011inErrol,aninterviewwithDianeTimmins,FisheriesBiologist,Region1,andaninterviewwithalocalareafishingexpertandbusinessowner.Estimatesforlocalandnon-localvisitation,averagenumberofdayspertrip,andaveragespendingpervisitwereestimatedusingthesurveyresultspublishedinThe2006NationalSurveyofFishing,Hunting,andWildlifeRecreation:NewHampshireandthroughinterviewswithlocalareaexperts.Nationwideandstatewidedecreasesinanglingreportedinboththe2006NationalSurveyofFishing,Hunting,andWildlifeRecreationforNewHampshireandthe2000UpperConnecticutRiverStudy.TheUpperConnecticutRiverStudy,astudydoneinaregioncomparativetoErrolandtheAndroscogginRiverwatershed,discussesthedecreaseinthecontextofyearlyvariabilityinweather,concludingthattheUpperConnecticutremainsanimportantdestinationforfishing.IninterviewswithDianeTimmins(FisheriesBiologist,Region1),shefeltthatthatasimilarconclusioncouldbereachedfortheErrolarea.Therefore,itwasdeemedplausiblethatvisitationintheregionovertimewouldremainsteadyifnotincreaseslowly.Forthisreasonthisreportadoptsanestimatedannualvisitorgrowthrateof1%inangling.

Economic multiplier analysis ThisstudyemploysmultipliersderivedfromtheRIMSIIregionalInput-OutputmodeldevelopedbytheBureauofEconomicAnalysis(BEA)oftheU.S.DepartmentofCommerce(BureauofEconomicAnalysis1997).Benchmarkseriesmultipliers(2002/2010)werepurchasedforthethreecontiguouscountiesofCoos,NH,Oxford,ME,andFranklin,ME

31

coveringtheareawheremostoftheforest-relatedeconomicactivityislikelytotakeplace(bothforrecreationandtimberharvestingandprocessing).Themultiplierscanbeappliedtoestimatethedirect,indirect,andinducedeffectsofchangesinfinaldemandforonesectororindustryinanysinglecountyormulti-countyeconomyintheU.S.(seeglossaryformoredetails).

TypeImultipliers,whichconsideronlydirectandindirecteffects,weredeemedmoresuitableforapplicationtotheregionthanTypeIImultipliers,whichalsoincludeinducedeffects.Whereapplicable,saletaxeswereremovedfromspendingbeforemultiplierswereapplied.RIMSIImultipliersaredesignedtobeappliedtoproducerpricesasopposedtoconsumerprices.Ifconsumerpricesaretobeused,transportationcosts,wholesalemarginsandretailmarginsshouldbesubtracted.Timbersalesandservicesinthehotelandrestaurantsectorreflectproducerprices.Inthisreport,retailsalesinvisitorspendingwerenotexpressedinproducerpricesduetothelackofaccurateestimatesoftransportationcostsforgoodssold,wholesalemargins,andretailmargins.Thisissuewasaddressedbyconsideringnomultiplyingeffectforgasexpenditures,asmoneyspentongassimplyleaksoutfromacommunity.Multipliereffectsofallotherretailtradeshouldbeevaluatedwithcaution,asretailexpendituresareexpressedinconsumerpricesinthisreport.

Logging multipliers Stumpagesaleswereaddedtocut-and-haultimbersalestogeneratefinaldemandvalues.Alternatively,wecouldhaveconsideredthenextnodedownthesupplychain(sawmills)andassessthechangeinoutputofsawmillproductsresultingfromanincreaseintimberavailableonthemarketfrom13MilesWoods’operation.Thisapproachwasjudgedmore

Glossary of terms Direct impactsarechangesinsales,income,orjobsintherecreationandtimberindustrysector.Theseeffectsarecapturedbythebusinessesdirectlyinvolvedinthesalesofgoodsandservicestotourists,suchasretailshops,restaurants,andlodging. Indirect effects arethechangesinsales,income,orjobsinsectorswithintheregionthatsupplygoodsandservicestotherecreationandthetimberindustry.Twoexamples:1)theincreasedsalesinprofessionalkitchenequipmentresultingfrommorerestaurantsalesor2)increaseddemandforloggingequipmentasaresultofincreasedtimbersales. Induced effects (not considered in the study)aretheincreasedsaleswithintheregionfromhouseholdsspendingthe incomeearned in thetourismand logging industryandsupportingsectors.

Final demand isdemandforgoodsthatarenotusedtoproduceothergoods,typically:personalconsumptionexpenditures,exports,governmentspending,andprivatefixedinvestment(investmentonmachinery,land,buildings,andvehicles).

32

unreliablebystaffoftheBureauofEconomicAnalysisduetothedifficultyoftrackingsawmilloutputdatabacktothecommunityforest.Byapplyingtheloggingmultipliertobothstumpageandcut-and-haultimber,weacceptedtointroducealevelofinaccuracythatbringsestimatesonthemoreconservativeside.MultiplyingeachoftheLoggingRIMSIIfinal-demandmultipliers(Table2)bythefinaldemandproducedtheestimatesoftotaloutput,earnings,andemployment. Table 2. RIMS II multipliers for the logging industry.

RIMS II Industry Output multiplier Earnings Employment

113300 Logging 1.8419 0.3584 10.6948

Visitor spending multipliers Spendingforovernightanddayvisitorswasbrokenintoexpendituresforlodging,restaurants,retail,andtransportationbasedonthereportsmentionedinearliersectionsandseparatefinaldemandswereobtained.Thisenabledustoseparatethedifferentmultiplyingeffectsofspendinginthesectorsaffectedbyvisitation.ThevisitorspendingmultipliersappliedtofinaldemandareshowninTable3.ThedistributionofspendingforeachcategoryisshowninTable4.Usingtheexampleofhotelexpenditures,Table3canbereadasfollows:pereachdollarspentinhotels,0.16dollarsaregeneratedasoutputand0.30dollarsinearningsinthesupportingindustriesonwhichhotelsdependforgoodsandservices(e.g.laundries).Thejobmultiplierassumesthat13.3full-timeorpart-timejobsarecreatedasaresultofeach$1millionincreaseinvisitorspending.Gasexpenditureswereassumedtohavenomultipliereffect.ThecategoryofspendingthattheBureauofEconomicAnalysisnamesas“foodservicesanddrinkingplaces”istheonewithhighestmultipliereffect.Rippleeffectsarehigherforgoodsandservicesproducedlocally,suchasinthecaseofthelodgingandrestaurantservices.Itshouldbenotedthatsmall-scalehuntingandfishing,whenconsideredaseconomicactivities,donotcarryanymultipliereffectintheRIMSIImodel.Inthisstudythemultipliereffectsofhuntingandfishingarecapturedthroughvisitorspending.Duetolimitedinformationfrompublishedreportsonvisitorspendingdistributionforhunting,itwasassumedtobethesameasforfishing.On-siteretailexpendituresforhuntingwereassumedtobeatleastequaltoboatingexpensesforfishermenandthisportionwasincludedintootherretailtradeexpendituresforhunting.GasexpendituresarenotlistedassuchintheRIMSIItablesandwereassumedtohavenomultipliereffect.

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Table 3. RIMS II multipliers for different sectors of visitor spending.

RIMS II multiplier title Output

Multiplier

Type I

Earning

Multiplier

Type I

Job

Multiplier

Type I

Hotels and Motels 1.1643 0.3072 13.3296

Food Services and drinking places 1.1780 0.3503 18.2783

Retail trade 1.1479 0.3480 13.1089

Retail trade (Gas)* 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000

*NotincludedassuchinRIMSIItablesofmultipliers

Table 4. Distribution of visitor spending (percentage).

Activity In-state visitors Out-of-state

visitors

Snowmobiling Hotels and Motels 0.17 0.26

Food Services and drinking

places

0.17 0.19

Retail trade 0.42 0.33

Retail trade (gas) 0.24 0.22

ATV Hotels and Motels 0.16 0.18


places

0.19 0.18



Fishing Hotels and Motels 0.08 0.12


places

0.24 0.34



Boating 0.28 0.03

Hunting Hotels and Motels 0.08 0.12


places

0.24 0.34



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Additional results for visitor spending Table5detailstheestimatednumberofvisitors,lengthofstay,andtotaldirectspendingbyrecreationtypefor2022.Estimatesfor2012arediscussedinthemainreportandareprovidedhereonlyfordirectcomparison.Table 5. Visitation and spending from state and non-state visitors for year 2012 and 2022.

Activity Type of visitor

Number

of visits

Days per

visit

Visitor

Daily

Spending Total

2012 Snowmobiling State resident 3,559 1.35 $83.74 $402,319.00

Non-state resident 2,181 2.42 $120.80 $637,854.00

ATV State resident 0 0 $0.00 $0.00

Non-state resident 0 0 $0.00 $0.00

Hunting State resident 471 7 $186.30 $614,643.85

Non-state resident 83 7 $227.70 $132,570.24

Fishing State resident 434 5 $90.85 $197,144.50


TOTAL $2,285,843.09

2022 Snowmobiling State resident 3,931 1.35 $83.74 $444,410.23

Non-state resident 2,409 2.42 $120.80 $704,588.11

ATV State resident 2,559 1.9 $77.55 $377,112.13

Non-state resident 722 4.2 $59.86 $82,091.39

Hunting State resident 526 7 $186.30 $685,738.69


Fishing State resident 484 5 $90.85 $219,947.88


TOTAL $2,997,956.54

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Snowmobiling Table6presentsestimatesofspendingbyresidentsandnon-residentsfortheperiod2012-2022.Table 6. Visitor spending for in-state and out-of-state snowmobile visitors.

Year

# Local

Visitors

# Non-Local

Visitors

Total Spending

by Local

Visitors

Total Spending

by Non-Local

Visitors

Total Spending

by Local and

Non-Local

Visitors

2012 3559 2181 $402,319 $637,854 $1,040,173

2013 3594 2203 $406,342 $644,233 $1,050,575

2014 3630 2225 $410,405 $650,675 $1,061,081

2015 3667 2247 $414,509 $657,182 $1,071,691

2016 3703 2270 $418,655 $663,754 $1,082,408

2017 3740 2292 $422,841 $670,391 $1,093,232

2018 3778 2315 $427,069 $677,095 $1,104,165

2019 3816 2339 $431,340 $683,866 $1,115,206

2020 3854 2362 $435,654 $690,705 $1,126,359

2021 3892 2386 $440,010 $697,612 $1,137,622

2022 3931 2409 $444,410 $704,588 $1,148,998

TOTAL $4,251,236 $6,740,102 $12,031,511

ATV Visitation Table7presents10-yearprojectionsofATVvisitationandestimateddirectspendingtotalsassumingthatanATVtrailisapprovedbythestateandcompletedintimeforthe2013season.Aconservativelyestimatedannualvisitorgrowthrateof1%reflectsthecurrentlimitedcapacitytolodgeATVtrailusersinErrolandthelingeringeffectsoftheeconomicrecessiononATVuse..Table 7. Visitor spending for in-state and out-of-state ATV visitors through year 2022.

Year

# Local

Visitors

# Non-Local

Visitors

Total

Spending by

Local Visitors

Total

Spending by

Non-Local

Visitors

Total

Spending by

Local and

Non-Local

Visitors

2012* 0 0 $0 $0 $0

2013 2340 660 $344,809 $75,059 $419,868

2014 2363 667 $348,257 $75,810 $424,067

2015 2387 673 $351,739 $76,568 $428,307

2016 2411 680 $355,257 $77,334 $432,590

2017 2435 687 $358,809 $78,107 $436,916

2018 2459 694 $362,397 $78,888 $441,286

2019 2484 701 $366,021 $79,677 $445,698

2020 2509 708 $369,682 $80,474 $450,155

2021 2534 715 $373,378 $81,279 $454,657

2022 2559 722 $377,112 $82,091 $459,204

TOTAL $3,607,461 $785,288 $3,972,881

*Note:ATVtrailisestimatedtobecompletedin2013.

36

Hunting Visitation Table8presentsestimatedvisitorspendingbyresidentsandnon-residents.Table 8. Visitor spending for in-state and out-of-state hunting visitors through year 2022.

Year

# Local

Visitors

# Non-Local

Visitors

Total

Spending by

Local Visitors

Total

Spending by

Non-Local

Visitors

Total

Spending by

Local and

Non-Local

Visitors

2012 471 83 $614,644 $108,467 $723,110

2013 476 84 $620,790 $133,896 $754,686

2014 481 85 $626,998 $135,235 $762,233

2015 486 86 $633,268 $136,587 $769,855

2016 490 87 $639,601 $137,953 $777,554

2017 495 87 $645,997 $139,333 $785,330

2018 500 88 $652,457 $140,726 $793,183

2019 505 89 $658,981 $142,133 $801,115

2020 510 90 $665,571 $143,555 $809,126

2021 515 91 $672,227 $144,990 $817,217

2022 521 92 $678,949 $146,440 $825,389

TOTAL $6,494,840 $1,400,848 $8,618,798

Fishing Visitation Table9presentsestimatesofspendingbyresidentsandnon-residentsfortheyears2012-2022.Table 9. Visitor spending for in-state and out-of-state fishing visitors through year 2022.

Year # Local Visitors

# Non-Local

Visitors

Total

Spending by

Local Visitors

Total

Spending by

Non-Local

Visitors

Total

Spending by

Local and

Non-Local

Visitors

2012 434 266 $197,145 $301,312 $498,456

2013 438 269 $199,116 $304,325 $503,441

2014 443 271 $201,107 $307,368 $508,475

2015 447 274 $203,118 $310,442 $513,560

2016 452 277 $205,149 $313,546 $518,695

2017 456 280 $207,201 $316,681 $523,882

2018 461 282 $209,273 $319,848 $529,121

2019 465 285 $211,366 $323,047 $534,412

2020 470 288 $213,479 $326,277 $539,756

2021 475 291 $215,614 $329,540 $545,154

2022 479 294 $217,770 $332,835 $550,606

TOTAL $2,083,193 $3,183,909 $5,765,558

37

Multiplier effects of recreation Tables10through13listthemultipliereffectofvisitorspendingbyrecreationactivityfortheyear2022.Estimatesfortheyear2012areprovidedforcomparison.Snowmobiling,duetovisitornumbersandthespendingpervisit,showsthehighestmultipliereffectwithmorethan$250,000inearningsin2012.Approximately11jobsareassumedtobegeneratedintheregionasaresultofsnowmobilerspending,fiveofwhichareinthehospitalitysector.Table 10. Multiplier impacts of snowmobiling.

RIMS multiplier title Visitor

spending

Sales

taxes

Total output Total

earnings

Total

employment

2012 Hotels and Motels $178,017 $16,022 $188,611 $49,765 2.16


places

$177,885 $16,010 $190,689 $56,705 2.96

Retail trade $435,877 $0 $500,343 $151,685 5.71

Retail trade (Gas) $248,395 $0 $248,395 $0 0.00

TOTAL $1,040,173 $32,031 $1,128,038 $258,155 10.83



places

$218,435 $19,659 $234,158 $69,631 3.63

Retail trade $377,784 $0 $394,629 $119,637 4.51

Retail trade (Gas) $252,948 $0 $230,182 $0 0.00

TOTAL $1,148,998 $46,644 $1,176,645 $273,086 11.78

TotalearningsassociatedwithprojectedATVspendingfortheyear2022areapproximatelyhalfofthosegeneratedbysnowmobilingspending($126,422).Thejobmultiplierisoffivejobs(Table11).Table 11. Multiplier impacts of ATV for year 2022.


spending

Sales

taxes

Total

output

Total

earnings

Total

employment

2022 Hotels and Motels 74,684 6,722 79,128 20,878 0.91


places

88,519 7,967 94,890 28,217 1.47

Retail trade 222,202 $0 255,066 77,326 2.91

Retail trade (Gas) 73,799 $0 73,799 $0 0.00

TOTAL 459,204 14,688 502,883 126,422 5

38

Ofthenon-motorizedrecreationactivities,huntinghashighestimpact,generatingatotaloutputofmorethan$800,000peryear,$175,587oftotalearningsandapproximatelysevenjobsin2012.Projectionsfor2022forecastalmost$200,000intotalearningsandapproximatelyeightjobs(Table12).Table 12. Multiplier impacts of hunting.


spending

Sales Taxes Total

output

Total earnings Total

employment



places

$192,588 $17,333 $206,451 $61,392 3.20

Retail trade $275,867 $0 $316,667 $96,002 3.62

Retail trade (Gas) $213,679 $0 $213,679 $0 0.00

TOTAL $747,214 $23,190 $805,750 $175,587 7.61



places

$214,865 $19,338 $230,331 $68,493 3.57

Retail trade $307,776 $0 $353,296 $107,106 4.03

Retail trade (Gas) $238,395 $0 $238,395 $0 0.00

TOTAL $833,643 $25,873 $898,950 $195,897 8.49

Withapproximatelyhalfmilliontotaloutput,fishingbringstotalearningsofapproximately$87,000in2012andaround$94,000in2022(Table13).Fourjobsareestimatedtobeassociatedwiththecurrentandprojectedvisitorspendingofanglers.Table 13. Multiplier impacts of fishing.


spending

Sales taxes Total

output

Total

earnings

Total

employment



places

149,761 13,478 160,540 47,740 2.49

Retail trade 70,826 $0 81,301 24,647 0.93

Retail trade (Gas) 161,701 $0 161,701 $0 0.00

Boating 64,240 $0 64,240 $0 0.00

TOTAL 498,456 18,152 522,801 86,904 4



places

167,083 15,037 179,110 53,262 2.78

Retail trade 79,018 $0 82,541 25,023 0.94

Retail trade (Gas) 180,405 $0 164,168 $0 0.00

Boating 71,670 $0 65,220 $0 0.00

TOTAL 556,112 20,252 552,423 94,481 4

39

Cited References Ainsworth,G.M.,(2012).StewardshipPlan–13MileWoodsAssociation,Inc.–ErrolandCambridge,NH.Bisson,K.,andM.Lyman.(2003).ValuingForestsasCommunityAssetsintheMountWashingtonValley:AStudyoftheEconomic,Environmental,andSocialContributionsofPublicandPrivateForestsandTheirPotentialRoleasaComponentofaRegionalEconomicDevelopmentStrategy.MountWashingtonValleyEconomicCouncil.Bliss,J.C.,E.C.Kelly,J.Abrams,etal.(2010).DisintegrationoftheU.S.industrialforestestate:dynamics,trajectories,andquestions.Small-ScaleForestry.9:53–66.CommunityForestCollaborative.(2007).CommunityForests:ACommunityInvestmentStrategy.http://www.communitiescommittee.org/pdfs/Community_Forests_Report_web.pdfEvans,J.R.,Ainsworth,G.M.,andShear,L.(2005).StewardshipPlan–13MileWoodsProperty.–Errol,NH.Little,J.“EmbarkingonNewTerritory:TheCommunity-OwnedForestConference.”Communities and Forests,vol.9,no.2,Fall2005.NEFA(2011).TheEconomicImportanceofNewHampshire’sForestBasedEconomy.ReportoftheNorthEastForestersAssociation.NFC/NCC(2008).StatusofNorthernForestRegionStates’ForestryandForestProductsIndustry.ReportoftheNorthernForestCenterandNorthCountryCouncil.OutdoorIndustryAssociation(2012).The Outdoor Recreation Economy, OutdoorIndustryAssociation.http://www.outdoorindustry.org/images/researchfiles/OIA_OutdoorRecEconomyReport2012.pdfSmith,W.,andD.Darr.(2002).U.S. Forest Resource Facts and Historical Trends.U.S.DepartmentofAgricultureForestService.http://www.nhdfl.org/forest-industries-and-business/forest-statistics.aspx

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