economic growth disparities in asia
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Managing Intra-country Growth Disparities in South AsiaTRANSCRIPT
Managing Intra-country Growth Disparities in South Asia
Abid Q. Suleri, Vaqar Ahmed, Muhammed Zeshan, Samavia Batool 6th South Asia Economic Summit
2-4th September, Institute of Policy Studies, SriLanka
10 Patterns Governing Intra-country Growth Disparities
1. Substantial Population Share of Youth
Country
Population
ages 15-64
(% of total)
Population
ages 0-14 (%
of total)
Afghanistan 50.3 47.4
Bhutan 66.8 28.5
Bangladesh 64.7 30.6
Nepal 59.4 35.6
Pakistan 61.3 34.3
India 65.4 29.4
Sri Lanka 66.6 25.2
Maldives 66.0 29.0 Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Population and Youth in South Asia (2012)
2. Fast Urbanization & Agglomeration
Country
Urban
population
(% of total)
Population in urban
agglomerations of
more than 1 million
(% of total
population)
Afghanistan 23.9 10.7
Bhutan 36.3 -
Bangladesh 28.9 14.9
Nepal 17.3 -
Pakistan 36.5 19.2
India 31.7 12.7
Sri Lanka 15.2 -
Maldives 42.2 - Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Urbanization and Agglomeration in South Asia (2012)
5
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Pe
rce
nta
ge
South Asia Real GDP Growth
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Manufacturing, value added (annual % growth)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Agriculture, value added (annual % growth)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
61
19
64
19
67
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Services, value added (annual % growth)
3. Rising Share of Services Sector
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
2.5
3.92.9 3
3.6 3.4 3.4 3
012345
CPIA public sector management and institutions rating (1=low to 6=high)
1.5
3.53
2.5
3.5 3.5 3.53
0
1
2
3
4
CPIA property rights and rule-based governance rating 2012
(1=low to 6=high)
2
4.5
2.5 2.5
3.53 3 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating
2012 (1=low to 6=high)
45
19.9
46.6
12.4
47.4
49.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Nepal%
of T
otal
Fir
ms
Firms competing against unregistered firms 2009
5. Disconnect with Sustainability
17
31
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
South Asia World
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Forest area (% of land area) 0.23
0.60 0.34
0.13
1.66
0.62
3.21
0.95
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
(met
ric
ton
s p
er
cap
ita)
CO2 Emissions
2009
1972
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
16.8
19.9
17.5
5.6
24
18
0 10 20 30
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
(% of population)
Prevalence of undernourishment 2011
72.7
36.7
42
59.2
47.2
9.2
10.5
39
0 20 40 60 80
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
Infant mortality rate 2011
6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
16.8
19.9
17.5
5.6
24
18
0 10 20 30
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
(% of population)
Prevalence of undernourishment 2011
72.7
36.7
42
59.2
47.2
9.2
10.5
39
0 20 40 60 80
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Pakistan
India
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Nepal
Infant mortality rate 2011
3.1
70.2
133.5
26.6
168.7
27.0
0
50
100
150
200
(pe
r 1
,00
0 a
du
lts)
Borrowers from commercial banks 2011
0 1 2 3 4
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Bangladesh
India
Pakistan
Maldives
Sri Lanka
New Firm registrations per 1,000 people
7. Low Levels of Inclusiveness
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
GINI
index
Income share held
by highest 10%
Income share
held by lowest
10%
Poverty
headcount at
$2/day (% of
Population)
Afghanistan 27.82 23.21 4.08 -
Bhutan 38.06 29.36 2.8 29.8
Bangladesh 32.12 27.03 3.9 76.5
Pakistan 30.02 26.05 4.36 60.2
India 33.9 28.79 3.69 68.8
Sri Lanka 36.4 30.03 3.39 23.9
Maldives 37.37 28.03 2.71 12.2
Nepal 32.82 26.52 3.63 57.3
8. Lacking Participatory Approach
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
2
4 3.5
2.5 3
4 4.5
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
CPIA gender equality rating 2012 (1=low to 6=high)
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Voice and Accountability Index 2011 (1=low to 6=high)
9. Low Redistribution
12
Source: World Development Indicators 2013
8.810.0 9.2 9.3
10.4 10.712.4 13.2
02468
101214
% o
f G
DP
Tax Revenue in South Asia 2011
-0.9-1.3
0.4
-5.1
-3.3
-11.7
-7.2
-1.2
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
% o
f G
DP
Average Budget Deficit 2006-10
7.9 8.37.1
12.1
8.8 8.810.2 9.3
0
5
10
15
% G
row
th
Average Consumer Price Index 2006-12
3.5 3.53
3.5 3.54
32.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
CPIA quality of budgetary management 2012Rating (1=low to 6=high)
10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure
Note: (1=low to 5=high) Source: World Development Indicators 2013
Efficiency of
customs clearance
process
Quality of trade and
transport-related
infrastructure
Competence and
quality of logistics
services
Afghanistan 2.33 2.0 2.16
Bhutan 2.29 2.3 2.42
Bangladesh 2.33 2.49 2.44
India 2.77 2.87 3.14
Pakistan 2.85 2.69 2.77
Maldives 2.24 2.47 2.68
Sri Lanka 2.58 2.5 2.8
Nepal 2.20 1.87 2.12
Summarizing Underlying Growth Patterns
14
1. Substantial Population Share of Youth
2. Unplanned Urbanization and Agglomeration
3. Rising Share of Traditional Services
4. Informal Sector Fueled by Porous Institutions
5. Disconnect with Sustainability
6. Mediocre Quality of Factors of Production
7. Low levels of Inclusiveness
8. Lack of Participatory Approach
9. Low Redistribution
10. Trade under Inefficient Infrastructure
15
What Next for South Asia?
16
Emerging Mega Trends
1. Empowerment
17
Emerging examples of
individual empowerment
Rising Middle Class
Independent Media
Access to ICT Pro-poor
legislation
Right to Information
Act
2. Demography
18
Demographic Change
Urban Class
Increased Mobility across Sectors
Rising Internal
Migration
Knowledge Spillovers
Diaspora
3. New Power Centers
19
Power Centers
Civil society
Superior Judiciary
Media Parliamenta
ry Forces
Corporate Sector
20
Game Changers
21
Game Changers
Violent Conflicts
Human & Man-made
disasters
Corruption &
Transparency
Failure to Invest in Human Capital
Lets Rethink South Asian Inclusive Growth
22
1. How will these game changers impact the mega trends?
2. Can rural development be separated from traditional structural transformation?
3. How urban spaces can become hubs of domestic commerce?
4. Can we reinvent youth engagement?
