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ECONOMIC FUTURES
THE FUTURE OF WORK
FIVE GAME CHANGERS
The Future of Work: Five Game Changers
POLICY HORIZONS CANADA 0
THE FUTURE OF WORK
Five Game Changers
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2019
For information regarding reproduction rights:
https://www.horizons.gc.ca/en/content/contact-us
Cat. No.: PH4-184/2019E-PDF
ISBN: 978-0-660-30433-5
DISCLAIMER
Policy Horizons Canada (Horizons) is a strategic foresight organization within the Government of Canada with a
mandate to help the government develop future-oriented policy and programs that are more robust and resilient in the
face of disruptive change on the horizon. The content of this document does not necessarily represent the views of the
Government of Canada, or participating departments and agencies.
The Future of Work: Five Game Changers
POLICY HORIZONS CANADA 1
CONTENTS
FOREWORD ........................................................................................................................................... 02
INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 03
GAME CHANGER 1: WORK MOVES FROM BEING LONG-TERM AND
TIME-BASED TO TEMPORARY AND TASK-BASED ............................................................................ 04
GAME CHANGER 2: AI AND AUTOMATION COULD ERODE EMPLOYMENT
LONG BEFORE THESE TECHNOLOGIES REPLACE ENTIRE JOBS ................................................. 07
GAME CHANGER 3: AI ENDS THE SCARCITY OF KNOWLEDGE WORKERS, POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING JOBLESS GROWTH IN KNOWLEDGE INDUSTRIES ...................................................... 10
GAME CHANGER 4: COMBINED DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES COULD REDUCE
THE ROLE OF AND NEED FOR HUMAN INTERMEDIARIES .............................................................. 13
GAME CHANGER 5: WHERE PEOPLE WORK AND EARN MAY NOT BE WHERE
THEY LIVE AND SPEND ........................................................................................................................ 15
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................................... 18
ENDNOTES ............................................................................................................................................ 19
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FOREWORD The coming decades will bring significant changes to the nature of work, including what, how,
where, and by whom work will be done.
Artificial intelligence, automation, and telepresence can disrupt work as we know it and impact
employment levels. Moreover, as more technologies mature and combine, we could see changes
to the fundamental organizing principles of the economy, impacting the nature of work. The
disruptions to the quantity and quality of work could go beyond any levels we have experienced to
date.
This report explores five key game changers for the future of work and their policy implications.
The goal of this report is not to predict the future. It is to help decision makers think through
plausible futures and anticipate the challenges and opportunities that may arise for economic
growth and welfare across society. We encourage readers to examine the insights with an open
mind, and consider whether their organizations and policies are prepared for the possible
significant disruptions. Guided by our mandate, we hope to provoke thought and dialogue, and
contribute to the development of robust policies and programs in the face of changes that lie
ahead for Canada.
Our Future of Work analysis builds on our Next Digital Economy foresight report, which we also
invite you to read. This in-depth foresight study involved research, interviews, and workshops. It
benefitted from collaboration with several departments and agencies across the public service of
Canada, as well as non-governmental stakeholders, experts, and academics.
On behalf of Policy Horizons Canada, I would like to thank the numerous people who generously
shared their time, knowledge, and thoughts.
Kristel Van der Elst
Executive Head, Policy Horizons Canada
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POLICY HORIZONS CANADA 3
INTRODUCTION
We are living through a transition to the Next Digital Economy, in which much of our economic
activity may become digitally intermediated, customized, on demand, and globally distributed. As
a result, the models for production and consumption of goods and services are shifting, which could
affect both the amount and the nature of work.
As a broad suite of technologies – such as task-based platforms, telepresence, automation, artificial
intelligence (AI), and blockchain – mature and combine, they are poised to have a particularly
disruptive impact on employment and the experience of work.
This paper explores five key game changers for the future of work. A game changer is a significant
shift in the way we think about or do something. Each section describes the basic elements of the game
changer and identifies implications for public policy.
1. Work moves from being long-term and time-based to temporary and task-based. In a
globally competitive labour market where many people are paid by the task, how can governments
ensure that minimum wage and employment standards are met and social support systems are
effective?
2. AI and the automation of tasks could put people out of work long before technologies
replace entire jobs. How would people cope with reskilling and job loss when tasks could replace
jobs as the basic unit of work and are being automated across all sectors?
3. AI decreases the scarcity of knowledge workers, potentially allowing jobless growth in
knowledge industries. If knowledge and some forms of intelligence can be replicated as needed,
what might happen to cognitive labour and ‘thinking’ professions in the future?
4. Combined digital technologies could reduce the need for human intermediaries who
provide trust and security. What might happen if technology eliminates human transactional
roles from the workforce?
5. Where people work and earn may not be where they live and spend. What might happen to
taxation, social benefits, and the secondary economy when a person can live anywhere in the
world but work in Canada, or vice-versa?
Exploring these changes can help identify potential challenges and opportunities, which
provides the foundation for a productive dialogue on future-oriented policy.
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GAME CHANGER 1WORK MOVES FROM BEING LONG-TERM AND
TIME-BASED TO TEMPORARY AND TASK-BASED
Supported by digital technologies, jobs are broken down into many distinct
tasks that can be accomplished separately and recombined to achieve
the desired result.
This facilitates payment for tasks rather than
for time spent. By unbundling jobs into discrete
tasks with a piecework value, new ways of
performing, compensating, and evaluating work
are being experienced in the gig economy.1
As more jobs are unbundled into tasks,
more work can be uploaded to task-based
labour platforms. Digital labour platforms, on
which tasks are bought and sold, facilitate
further unbundling and distribution of work,2 and
allow employers to set the price they are willing
to pay for certain tasks. These tasks can be
farmed out to low-cost gig workers rather than
being assigned to permanent employees
responsible for an entire project. Workers bid on
specific tasks posted by employers, and can
also set a flat rate for certain tasks. Moving work
onto platforms could impact how a person is
compensated for work, changing compensation
from salary and hourly rates to piecework.
Task-based work and compensation relies
heavily on reputation systems. Several gig
work platforms use reputation systems to assist
workers, customers, and employers to choose
a suitable match. These systems measure and
provide a score for a worker’s credibility,
performance, skills, and potentially personal
qualities, such as likability.3 Some systems
quantify reputation intensively, using algorithms
to rate people on data coming from many
aspects of their lives.
The Sesame Credit system4 and the
experimental credit granting system5 analyze
vast amounts of data, collected through apps
and other sources, to rate people based on their
behaviour. These increasingly sophisticated and
potentially intrusive systems could be
implemented on task-based platforms as this
rating model becomes more widespread.
Platforms and wages
A 2018 study of 3.8 million tasks conducted
on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk platform found
a median hourly wage on their platform of
around $2 US, with 96% earning less than
the US minimum wage, $7.25 per hour.
IMPLICATIONS
The terms and business models of gig work
could overflow into all work in an
unpredictable way, irrespective of whether
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the work is online. A World Economic Forum
survey found that 50% of major companies
surveyed are expected to cut their permanent
workforce, while 48% are expected to hire
specialist contractors instead of employees.
Only 38% are expected to grow their permanent
workforce.6 Essentially, a firm could shift any job
susceptible to unbundling from time-based to
task-based compensation. Already, “[a]ccording
to economists Alan Krueger and Lawrence
Katz, the percentage of people engaged in
"alternative work arrangements" (freelancers,
contractors, on-call workers and temp agency
workers) grew from 10.1% in 2005 to 15.8% in
2015. Their report found that almost all — or
94% — of net jobs created from 2005 to 2015
were these sorts of impermanent jobs.”7 Some
sources project that the number of workers in
contract jobs could soon equal those in full-time
positions.8
Traditional employee-employer relationships
may become less common. Employers might
be wary of taking on the liabilities associated
with full-time employees in a fast-changing
world if they can instead engage flexible gig
workers, or automation technologies that do not
require support for upskilling, retirement benefits,
or vacation time.
Some firms that offer standardized goods
and services could be heavily automated,
retaining very few or even no workers.
These firms may outsource many of their
functions to online gig workers or to other
specialized firms using AI intermediaries.
If AI and gig workers with no health or
unemployment benefits replace traditional
employees, corporate contributions to social
programs could shrink.
This could strain social supports such as
pensions, private health benefits, and
training that depend largely on traditional
employer-employee relationships in the
context of a firm. If the Next Digital Economy
reduces or eliminates traditional employment
relationships, citizens could look to government
to shoulder the burden of such supports.
The overall effect on average wages is
unclear, though increased wage polarization
seems likely. The real wages of workers with
scarce skills that cannot be automated or
complement automation would likely increase
relative to those whose skills can be substituted.
The uneven distribution of digitally driven
employment and wage losses could lead to
greater inequality. If the cost of goods and
services declines in step with reduced labour
costs, some individuals or groups may feel
wealthier, even if their incomes stagnate. In
sum, those who retain employment could be
“better off” even at zero real growth in wages.
Conversely, those who lose employment could
see minimal benefit from lower costs of goods
and services. Career and education choices
might shift as a result of how and where wages
are distributed. The disparity could grow
between gig workers on global digital platforms
and those in local economies protected by
minimum wage laws or other statutory benefits.
A barista job offering a secure $15 per hour in
Canada could be a more attractive career
than a junior paralegal gig worker performing
piecework online at a rate that yields $10
per hour.
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Canadian workers may find themselves
disadvantaged by reputation systems
operated outside of Canadian jurisdiction.
Reputation systems developed in other
regulatory and governance contexts could
introduce forms of discrimination or terms
of employment forbidden under Canadian law.
Yet Canadians might feel pressured to join
them to remain engaged and competitive
in a global, task-based market.
Reputation systems:
Sesame Credit9
Launched by Alibaba’s Ant Financial
520 million users (as of 2017)
Scores are generated through vast
networks of data collection
Scores are based on credit history,
financial status, behaviour, personal
characteristics, and interpersonal
relationships
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GAME CHANGER 2
AI AND AUTOMATION COULD ERODE EMPLOYMENT
LONG BEFORE THESE TECHNOLOGIES REPLACE
ENTIRE JOBS
Even jobs that are too complex for complete automation could
change dramatically as new technologies enable the automation
of particular tasks.
It is dangerous to assume that many jobs
will be safe from automation because they
are too complex for AI and robotics to
handle now or in the foreseeable future. The
ability of digital technologies to unbundle jobs
into tasks makes that assumption vulnerable.
What we consider today as a job may be broken
down into many tasks, some of which can be
performed by machines either now or in the
near future.
Many jobs fall into the ‘could be partially
automated’ category. For example, one AI
company10
offers AI assistants that can plan,
prepare briefings, and schedule meetings. It
also accelerates corporate research by
automating access to organizations' data. While
it does not replace an entire job, this AI
application replaces several discrete tasks
housed within traditional administrative
positions.
AI and automation could transform work and
affect employment levels long before they
replace entire jobs. Human effort could be
refocused on the remaining tasks that cannot be
automated. This could reduce the amount of
human labour required to meet demand, and
provide significant advantages over humans
and advanced technologies acting in isolation.
In long-haul trucking, for example, we could see
highway driving – the longest and easiest part
of the route – assigned to an autonomous truck,
with human intervention during the shorter,
more complex trips from port to highway and
from highway to final destination. Entire
convoys of trucks can already be driven by a
single lead driver,11
eliminating the need for
several drivers.
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AI in Human Resources12
Analyzes behaviours and traits to identify
core job competencies
Screens candidates on how much they
match the identified competencies
Uses predictive analytics to project how
well suited a candidate is for a job
Identify employees at risk of leaving or
violating terms of employment
Robot-centric workplace design could
reduce barriers to automation. Human-
oriented workplace design limits automation in
some sectors. However, as firms augment their
workspaces to accommodate machines, the
need for human workers could decrease quicker
than expected. For example, some newly
designed grocery warehouses have no
traditional shelves. As a result, machines can
move easily along a grid of tracks and reach
down into storage bins.13
Just as robots struggle
with human-oriented shelving, humans would
have difficulty navigating much of this robot-
centric workplace. Workplace design for
automation could reduce the need for human
workers in complex environments.
IMPLICATIONS
In some scenarios, employment
opportunities could shrink as the cumulative
effects of task automation reduce demand
for human labour across many sectors.
The unbundling of jobs into tasks could
cascade through the entire economy
simultaneously. In the past, workers who lost
jobs in a declining sector may have found
similar work in another. In the Next Digital
Economy, tasks automated in one sector will
likely be automated in all sectors, making entire
lines of work rare or obsolete across the
economy.
We could see structural unemployment over
the long term. Traditional cyclical models
that assume a return to equilibrium after a
period of job losses might not hold.
Increased unemployment could result over the
short and medium terms, as some jobs
disappear. In the standard model, employment
would return to equilibrium in the long run as
real wages adjust, workers acquire new skills,
and higher total incomes create demand for
goods and services. However, the radical
changes caused by the combination of gig work
and automation could also create a new
structural reality and invalidate standard
assumptions.
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There is much to learn about whether and
how workers who lose jobs due to task
automation can be retrained or reskilled.
Opportunities will likely remain in existing jobs
that are not automated, existing jobs that are
transformed, and entirely new jobs in the Next
Digital Economy. However, the future skills and
mindsets needed for these jobs remain unclear.
Even if these become clear, developing them
among unemployed workers may require
substantial time and money. It may even prove
impossible for some.
Close cooperation between humans and
machines could increase, leading to higher
efficiency and outcomes, and eliminating
automatable tasks. This type of work –
sometimes called centaur work – lets humans
and machines team up, each working to its
strengths.14
Centaur work could change many
workers’ experience, and even make work
better and more meaningful. Robots may take
on routine, repetitive, and dangerous tasks,
value, creative activities. This could result in
higher productivity for firms, and better
outcomes in terms of safety and happiness of
workers. On the other hand, if human team
members spend more time on complex tasks
without respite, they could experience additional
stress and burnout.
CENTAURO15
Human-robot integrated system for
disaster relief
Human operation of a robot through
a full-body telepresence suit with
haptic feedback
Allows the robot to enter disaster
areas unsuitable for humans and aid
in relief efforts and cleanup
Shared situational feedback between
human and robot through augmented
reality (AR) for decision making
Source 1 http://www.centauro-project.eu/data_multimedia
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GAME CHANGER 3 AI ENDS THE SCARCITY OF KNOWLEDGE WORKERS,
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING JOBLESS GROWTH IN
KNOWLEDGE INDUSTRIES
AI has the potential to reduce the scarcity of knowledge workers
and enhance expertise across sectors.
AI could reduce the scarcity of knowledge
workers. Adding knowledge-based work
capacity currently requires resources to recruit,
train, compensate, and manage additional
humans. But firms may be able to duplicate AI
designed to collect and apply task-specific
knowledge at near-zero marginal cost. This
offers firms a low-cost alternative to hiring
additional humans, with all their traditional
financial and human resources costs. This is
already occurring in several knowledge-based
sectors:
In accounting and finance, there are apps
that use AI to help freelancers and SMEs
automate their accounting and financial
reporting systems.16
AI solutions are also
helping banks and credit lenders make
smarter underwriting decisions.17
In data science, there is a high demand18
for existing AI that automates data
scientists’ work. One such AI uses big data
to help businesses make decisions on
topics such as wealth management, direct
marketing, and lending.19
In human resources, there are several
AI- based apps that assist in areas such as
recruitment, evaluation, and retention. One
app analyzes information about employees
to detect if anyone is at risk of leaving or
causing security breaches.20
Centaur work could also impact knowledge
industries. While AI might completely
replace knowledge workers in some areas,
the combination of AI and humans could be
the key to augmenting knowledge-work
capacity. AI is capable of learning from several
human experts, and gaining knowledge based
on their collective experience and expertise.
This makes AI a valuable resource for humans
to supplement their existing expertise in
knowledge industries. In the health industry, AI
assists doctors in diagnostics. For example,
Watson Health21
works with physicians to
enhance their ability to diagnose illnesses with
precision and speed. It was able to diagnose
lung cancer with 90% accuracy compared to
50% for human doctors.22
Although AI has
proven effective in certain areas to date, its
potential depends on context. For instance,
certain AIs excel in radiology23
and data
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POLICY HORIZONS CANADA 11
analytics.24
However, AI still struggles with more
general tasks, and can get confused when
trying to differentiate a Chihuahua puppy from a
blueberry muffin, for example.25
Humans
working with AIs could process more volume
while avoiding AI-specific errors.
Several prominent mergers and acquisitions between health and technology companies
in recent years highlight the impact AI, Big Data, and the Internet of Things are already
having in one knowledge industry. These mergers bring new services online but also
disrupt traditional patterns of knowledge work and employment.
Examples of the 2018 mergers and acquisitions in health and technology include:26
Roche & Flatiron Health
Multinational personalized healthcare company, Roche, which aims to be a global leader in
personalized health (connecting human biology with data analysis), purchased Flatiron Health.
Flatiron is a data platform dedicated to oncology, with a mission is to fight cancer by connecting
medical researchers, practitioners, and regulators.
Headspace & Alpine.AI
Headspace is a meditation and mindfulness application which was co-created by a Buddhist
monk. This merger may suggest a trend toward AI integration in the mental health space. It aims
to give users access to virtual mindfulness gurus.
Medtronic & Nutrino
Diabetes management giant Medtronic purchased Nutrino, an AI platform designed to improve
health outcomes by collecting and analyzing personal food consumption data and linking it to
physiological changes. The accumulation of such data for diabetics and the population in general
could have profound effects on future health treatments.
Withings co-founder re-acquires firm from Nokia
Withings is a health-monitoring company, which manufactures smart devices designed to track
health and lifestyle data and provide personalized advice. Examples include smart scales tracking
BMI to sleep monitors to blood pressure devices with built-in ECG’s.
Muse & Meditation Studio
Muse is the company behind a brain sensing headband (combining neuroscience, fashion design,
and psychotherapy) which tracks and reports on brain activity linked to stress and anxiety.
Seeing an opportunity to provide users more than measurement and tracking, Muse purchased
Meditation Studio, whose mindfulness experts provide Muse users with data-based guidance
on how to lower stress, reduce anxiety, boost confidence, and improve sleep.
Other examples of large health mergers and acquisitions:
1. Logisticare & Circulation (partnered with Uber and Lyft) 2. Dexcom & TypeZero 3. Fitbit & Twine Health 4. Amazon & PillPack 5. Best Buy & GreatCall
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IMPLICATIONS
The transformative power of the Next Digital
Economy will not be limited to low-skilled
knowledge work. As AI reduces knowledge
scarcity, it can have sweeping impacts in
high-skilled knowledge jobs such as medical
professions as well as low-skilled knowledge
jobs such as data entry. Automation does not
have regard for professional status, although
rules and standards may slow automation
in some regulated professions.
There is potential for jobless growth in
knowledge industries if adding knowledge-
work capacity becomes a “cut and paste”
effort rather than a “hire and train” effort.
Firms could decide to expand their capacity by
acquiring replicable and updateable AI instead
of hiring new knowledge workers. Firms could
see economic growth without adding jobs.
At the same time, jobs for certain classes of
knowledge work could disappear, creating
a skills glut and increasing demand for
social supports.
The gains from jobless growth in knowledge
industries could be mainly captured by
megafirms. Great reservoirs of data are the
foundation for developing successful AI. In what
is essentially a network effect economy, few
firms may have access to such reservoirs. This
could make market concentration a major
concern, and lead to calls for regulation on data
collection and use that to pit megafirms against
consumers, small competitors, and governments.
Competition law and data protection regimes
could be major factors in the overall shape of the
emerging economy.
Continued digitization of the economy may
create a turbulent period of ‘creative
destruction’ and fierce competition. Firms
based on traditional models may struggle to
survive as new entrants arise or move in from
other sectors. In such a world, firms may
avoid taking on future liabilities, such as
human employees, in order to stay nimble,
which could drive down employment in some
sectors. However, hyper-competition could also
make certain human skills even more valuable.
LawGeex27
AI to perform contract reviews to assist lawyers on the job
Designed to detect flaws or errors in contracts
Contracts are compared against companies’ legal policies to ensure compatibility
28
It outperformed 20 top US corporate lawyers
29 in a contest to spot issues in
non-disclosure agreements
Goal is to free up lawyer time to be spent on more complex issues
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GAME CHANGER 4 COMBINED DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES COULD
REDUCE THE ROLE OF AND NEED FOR HUMAN
INTERMEDIARIES
In the Next Digital Economy, any job that primarily involves facilitating
agreements or transactions between other humans could be at risk.
Blockchain technologies can provide the
assurance that fosters trust in many
transactions, removing the need for human
guarantors such as bank workers and lawyers.
Further, blockchain-based smart contracts allow
for automated payment on delivery. A recent
startup university proposes using smart
contracts and blockchain to administer and
track its students’ tuition, credits, and degrees.30
Similarly, one major tech company is turning to
blockchain smart contracts for royalty
payments.31
Sensors built into the Internet of Things can
determine when a product or service is
required. For example, one major appliance
company has a refrigerator that uses a camera-
enabled AI assistant to detect, label, and list
foods, reminding consumers when certain items
need replenishing.32
Sensor technology is
particularly useful for planning machine
maintenance. Predictive maintenance33
programs administered by AI that draw data
from embedded sensors eliminate guesswork
and improve scheduling, minimizing machine
downtime.
AIs can negotiate optimal terms and place
orders. For example, popular online shopping
and streaming services already curate options
based on past consumption.34
Automated factories using advanced
manufacturing technologies such as 3D
printing could autonomously produce
customized products on demand, while
automated logistics could deliver products
to end users. Recently, a major shipping
company and a major tech company launched
a cross-border supply chain solution35
using
blockchain to manage transactions among
shippers, freight forwarders, ocean carriers,
ports, and customs authorities. Other
companies are testing fully automated36
e-commerce drone delivery systems.37
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Smart Contracts38
AI-assisted, legally binding contracts
AI agents for personalized assistance
to guide you through legal agreements
and notify you of your legal duties
and rights
Contracts are put into coded language
on the blockchain while giving the
owner a naturally written, binding
document to be digitally signed by
all parties
IMPLICATIONS
Across the value chain, many of the tasks
performed by human intermediaries could
be replaced by technology. By replacing
human workers with technology that can work
faster, cheaper, and with near-zero friction,
firms can reduce costs while improving
efficiency. These efficiencies could enable short
or even custom production runs that make value
chains transitory. As the cost of customization
decreases, locally produced, bespoke objects
could compete on price with batch-produced
objects, bringing “pop-up value chains” into
existence. The resulting products could use less
material, perform to the user’s specifications,
and decrease warehousing and long-distance
transportation needs.
The loss of white-collar jobs could be
extensive across sectors. Many white-collar
jobs that serve as intermediaries could be
greatly reduced. Finance, law, and brokering
could see major employment contractions in the
face of these new technologies. Traditional
professions may need to redefine themselves
during the transition to the Next Digital
Economy.
Contractions in the professions could
disrupt a number of support structures with
significant employment consequences.
Professional associations could wither as
professions shrink and some of their accrediting
functions shift to intermediary technologies.
e-Estonia: healthcare39
Online e-health record for each citizen
Blockchain-based electronic ID card
to keep secure health information
accesible to authorized parties
Single space for patients’ entire
medical file
e-ambulance and e-prescriptions
to optimize emergency response and
medical treatments
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GAME CHANGER 5 WHERE PEOPLE WORK AND EARN MAY NOT BE WHERE
THEY LIVE AND SPEND
In the future, online gig work platforms and advances in telepresence
and automation mean that people may not work and earn where they live
and spend.
Knowledge-based tasks can already be
assigned to workers anywhere. Some
knowledge jobs, such as writing and graphic
design, are being broken down into discrete
tasks and distributed via online platforms.
Workers anywhere can perform these tasks.
Canada is already one of the largest suppliers
and demanders of online labour on task
platforms.40
Advanced telepresence allows workers to
perform physical tasks from a remote
location. Telepresence technologies are
evolving to enable people to interact seamlessly
with other people and machinery from a
distance. Advances in virtual reality (VR),
augmented reality (AR), mixed reality (MR), and
robotics reduce the need for people to share a
physical space or be present at a job site. For
example, new mining techniques involve a high
level of automation in drilling and transporting
materials. These automated operations can be
controlled from an office far away from the
extraction site.41
Similarly, forestry firms are
testing self-driving logging trucks, tree-planting
drones, and automated forest management
systems.42
In the oil and gas sector, automation,
and robotics are being used to inspect
infrastructure and perform diagnostics on areas
in need of repair.43
There is also increased use
of telemedicine services (consultations,
monitoring, and interventions) to improve
access to health care services in remote
areas.44
Telework allows people to choose
where to live, now some places
are offering incentives to live (and
spend) there.
At least 10 jurisdictions have
announced incentive programs to
attract workers45
Vermont is offering up to $10,000 to
teleworkers who relocate there46
Tofino is looking to be an innovation
hub and build coworking infrastructure
to attract workers47
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AR, VR, and MR offer different ways for
users to experience simulations and remote
collaboration. In VR, users experience an
entirely digital environment, cutting out the
physical world around them. AR overlays
interactive digital objects and information onto
the real world. This can be experienced on a
smart phone or through smart glasses. One
online shopping company48
offers AR in its
shopping app, allowing users to virtually place
products into their home to ‘try-out’ the product.
MR combines the physical and virtual world
more closely, allowing users to manipulate both
virtual and physical objects that interact
with each other.
In Europe, these technologies are being used to
train counterterrorism operatives and first
responders. Through Automated Serious Game
Scenario Generator for Mixed Reality Training,
trainees from agencies across Europe can
interact in a single online virtual security
scenario. Alternatively, MR allows teams to
practice in real-world locations enhanced with
interactive digital constructs.
IMPLICATIONS
If work is no longer tied to where people live,
jurisdictions could compete to attract people
to live and spend there. Some jurisdictions
already offer49
economic incentives for remote
workers to relocate and spend their money in
the jurisdiction. This could lead to new types of
winners and losers: areas that can offer
attractive amenities and lifestyle, such as safe
walking communities, green space, and good
public schools could draw remote worker
populations (and consumer-driven revenues)
away from less attractive locales.
If major economic activities such as
resource extraction can be accomplished
from a distance, the secondary economies
that have depended on wages from local
primary economy jobs could be hit hard.
With fewer jobs and smaller economic knock-on
effects to offer, firms may need to find new
ways of winning support from the communities,
including Indigenous rights-holders, where they
hope to establish operations.
If geographic restrictions on employment
break down through a combination of
unbundling and digital technologies, a
highly competitive global labour market
could emerge, eliminating local scarcities for
many kinds of cognitive and physical expertise.
This could impact both white- and blue-collar
workers. Wages for similar tasks could
converge across all participating jurisdictions.
While this could benefit people with exceedingly
rare skills, it could disadvantage the remainder,
particularly those who live in areas with a high
cost of living. Such workers could struggle to
compete with those whose lower cost of living
allows them to underbid, effectively reducing
piecework rates for all.
Telepresence could change the definition
and allotment of skills across the economy.
Advanced telepresence frees experts from
being on site to carry out tasks. This could lead
to “tele-grunt” services, where offsite experts
use telepresence to direct low-skilled workers
carrying out complex tasks onsite. The new
types of telepresence work that emerge, as well
as the use of this technology for training, could
require new skill sets. For example, remote
operation of machinery using a controller could
require different aptitudes than physical
operation on site. This could drive the
replacement of ‘work experience’ with ‘skills
experience’ in the employment market.
The Future of Work: Five Game Changers
POLICY HORIZONS CANADA 17
Rio Tinto’s Mine of the Future
programme50
All mines are operated from one
central remote location
Autonomous haulage systems,
including trucks and trains, transport
materials
Automated drilling systems aimed to
allow one operator to operate multiple
rigs from one location
Administering taxation could be more
difficult. It will be increasingly difficult to identify
where transactions take place and value is
created. States might struggle to collect income
taxes from citizens who work in other
jurisdictions via gig-work platforms, especially
if these platforms are reluctant to collect taxes
or share data. Consumption taxes could also
be more difficult to collect, as the economy
shifts from material goods to digital goods and
services that are harder to monitor. Difficulties
securing revenue streams could encourage
international cooperation on tax treaties, but it
could also provoke states into hard-nosed
competition for shrinking revenues.
The Future of Work: Five Game Changers
POLICY HORIZONS CANADA 18
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This report is the result of extensive economic foresight by Policy Horizons Canada to
explore five game changers for the future of work and their policy implications. The work
involved research, interviews, and workshops with several departments and agencies
across the federal public service, as well as external stakeholders and experts.
Future of Work Project Team Members
Marcus Ballinger, Manager
Martin Berry, Foresight Analyst
Steffen Christensen, Senior Foresight Analyst
Pierre-Olivier DesMarchais, Foresight Analyst
Avalyne Diotte, Foresight Analyst
Jennifer O’Rourke, Foresight Analyst
Peter Padbury, Chief Futurist
Rhiannen Putt, Senior Foresight Analyst
Many Horizons staff contributed to this report by providing leadership, facilitation,
research, drafting, and design, namely: Maryam Alam, Kristel Van der Elst, Emma Garand,
Ian Lambert, Nelly Leonidis, Chris Hagerman, Alain Piquette, Sven Schirmer, Eric Ward,
and Nadia Zwierzchowska.
We would like to thank the numerous departments, agencies, stakeholders, and experts
who contributed to our work on this report. We would particularly like to thank Ryan Boyd
(Policy Innovation Hub, Ontario Cabinet Office), Chrysandre Courchêne (HR Business
Innovation Team, Human Resources Services Branch, Employment and Social
Development Canada), and Adon Moss (Policy Innovation Hub, Ontario Cabinet Office).
The ideas presented in this report do not necessarily reflect the views expressed by
everyone interviewed.
The Future of Work: Five Game Changers
POLICY HORIZONS CANADA 19
ENDNOTES
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2 European Commission, “Digital employment platforms gaining a foothold in Europe’s labour markets,” EU
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3 E.g. Uber, Yelp, and LinkedIn employ such systems. A. Griswold, “Good luck leaving your Uber driver less than
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7 L. F. Katz and A. B. Krueger, “The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, 1995-
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11 “Semi-autonomous truck platooning – how does it work?” Scania Group, YouTube, published Jan. 29, 2018,
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12 E.g. HiredScore and Pymetrics. On the latter, J. Constine, “Pymeterics attacks discrimination in hiring with AI
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14 N. Case, “How to Become a Centaur”, JDS, last modified Feb. 6, 2018,
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POLICY HORIZONS CANADA 20
15 “About Centauro,” European Union Centauro Project, http://www.centauro-project.eu/about-centauro.
16 E.g. see SMACC, https://www.smacc.io/en/.
17 E.g. see Zest Finance, https://www.zestfinance.com/.
18 P. Petrone, “Why It’s Really Good to Be a Data Scientist Right Now,” Linkedin, last modified Aug. 20, 2018,
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19 E.g. see DataRobot, https://www.datarobot.com/about-us/.
20 E.g. see Veriato, https://www.veriato.com/.
21 “Artificial Intelligence Solutions: Expanding the physician’s view,” Merge,
http://www.merge.com/Solutions/Artificial-Intelligence.aspx.
22 I. Steadman, “IBM’s Watson is better at diagnosing cancer than human doctors,” Wired, last modified Feb. 11,
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23 J. Kent, “How Artificial Intelligence is Changing Radiology, Pathology,” HealthAnalytics, last modified Aug. 3,
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25 M. Yao, “Chihuahua or muffin? My search for the best computer vision API,” FreeCodeCamp, last modified Oct.
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26 “Top 10 Digital Health Mergers And Acquisitions Show Trends For 2019,” The Medical Futurist, last modified
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27 E.g. see LawGeex, https://www.lawgeex.com/aboutus/.
28 S. O’Hear, “LawGeex raises $12M for its AI-powered contract review technology,” Techcrunch, last modified
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29 J. Wood, “This AI outperformed 20 corporate lawyers at legal work,” World Economic Forum, last modified Nov.
15, 2018, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/11/this-ai-outperformed-20-corporate-lawyers-at-legal-work/.
30 M. Roller, “Oxford academics launch ‘blockchain university’,” Cherwell, last modified Mar. 22, 2018,
https://cherwell.org/2018/03/22/oxford-academics-launch-blockchain-university/.
31 A. Munro, “Microsoft turns to blockchain smart contracts for royalty payments,” Finder, last modified Jun. 25,
2018, https://www.finder.com.au/microsoft-turns-to-blockchain-smart-contracts-for-royalty-payments.
32 Samsung’s Family Hub refrigerator, which employs their Bixby Vision AI,
https://www.samsung.com/global/galaxy/apps/bixby/vision/.
The Future of Work: Five Game Changers
POLICY HORIZONS CANADA 21
33 C. Murray, “Predictive Maintenance can Benefit All Manufacturers,” Design News, last modified Jan. 2019,
https://www.designnews.com/industrial-machinery/predictive-maintenance-can-benefit-all-manufacturers/64099930860063.
34 E.g. Amazon and Netflix.
35 “Maersk and IBM Unveil First Industry-Wide Cross-Border Supply Chain Solution on Blockchain,” IBM, last
modified Mar. 5, 2017, https://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/51712.wss.
36 T.C. Rosenthal, “Vans & Drones in Zurich: Mercedes-Benz Vans, Matternet and siroop start pilot project for on-
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37 M. Burgess, “Mercedes vans filled with swarming delivery bots could be heading to your hometown,” Wired,
last modified Sept. 16, 2016, https://www.wired.co.uk/article/mercedes-starship-drones-delivery-van.
38 “Smart Contracts: The Best Way to Make a Deal,” Newsbtc, last modified May 13, 2018,
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/05/13/agrello-smart-contracts-best-deal-making-way/. E.g. see Agrello, https://www.agrello.io/.
39 “Healthcare,” E-Estonia, https://e-estonia.com/solutions/healthcare/e-health-record/.
40 “The iLabour Project: Investigating the Construction of Labour Markets, Institutions and Movements on the
Internet,” Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford, last modified Apr. 1, 2019, http://ilabour.oii.ox.ac.uk/online-labour-index/.
41 E.g. see “Mine of the Future,” Rio Tinto, accessed Apr. 1, 2019,
http://www.riotinto.com/australia/pilbara/mine-of-the-future-9603.aspx.
42 J. Stewart, “Sweden’s Electric Robot-Truck is made for life in the forest,” Wired, last modified Jul. 12, 2018,
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43 J. Shaw, “applying AI to UAV Data for Oil & Gas Pipeline Inspections,” ELE.ai, last modified Jan. 10, 2019,
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44 E.g. see “Remote Medical Care: Modern diagnostics without leaving home,” Comarch, accessed Apr. 1, 2019,
https://www.comarch.com/healthcare/products/remote-medical-care/. For interventions see, R. Eveleth, “The surgeon who operates from 400km away,” BBC Future, last modified May 16, 2014, http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140516-i-operate-on-people-400km-away.
45 N.L. Pesce, “These 10 cities, states and countries will pay you to move there,” MarketWatch, last modified Jan.
3, 2019, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-9-cities-states-and-countries-will-pay-you-to-move-there-2018-10-26.
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POLICY HORIZONS CANADA 22
46 L. Begley Bloom, “Vermont Wants To Pay You $10, 000 To Move There And Work,” Forbes, last modified Jun. 3,
2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2018/06/03/vermont-wants-to-pay-you-10000-to-move-there-and-work/#1d44ecf311c9.
47 “World Renowned Tofino Innovating to Become a Workplace Destination for Global Nomads,” Cision, last
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48 S. Perez, “Wayfair’s Android app now lets you shop for furniture using augmented reality,” Techcrunch, last
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49 Begley Bloom, “Vermont Wants To Pay You.”
50 E.g. see “Mine of the Future,” Rio Tinto, accessed Apr. 1, 2019,
http://www.riotinto.com/australia/pilbara/mine-of-the-future-9603.aspx.