economic disruption in your community understanding the ... · resilient. the widely used phrase...

Understanding the Economic Disruption in Your Community Caused by COVID-19

Kyle AdamsPresident of Mid-America EDC

Vice PresidentRDC National, Inc.

Agenda

● Welcome / Intros● Essential vs. Non-Essential

Breakdown ● Economic Impact to Main Street,

Construction Sector● Pivoting to resilient, in-demand

skills

Drew Repp – Content Manager, Econ. & Workforce Development

John Hawkins – Director, Workforce Development

Josh Wright – EVP, Economic & Workforce Development

Community Insights Team

Following public health concerns and questions...

Next question: what is the economic impact on ________?

Not completely analogous to previous major events

● Global Financial Crisis (internal cause)● Hurricanes Katrina and Harvey (single

events/locations, loss of infrastructure)● 9/11 (immediate, unforeseen)

Most similar to GFC:

● Widespread● Economic Contraction● Stimulus package● Uncertainty

Contributions Analysis – measures any and every dollar that touches a specific industry along with the associated multiplier effect.

Gross Regional Product (GRP) Analysis – examines the amount of total value added in a region that stems from a particular industry or firm.

Economic Impact Analysis – determines the net change to the economic base of a region that can be attributed to a firm or industry that otherwise would not be there.

Economic Impact Analysis: Input-Output Models

● Assess how money flows in a region● Includes:

○ How money is exchanged between industries○ How employees spend salaries○ Tax revenue○ Long-term investment○ And much more (Emsi I-O model took three

years to create)

● Change or shock (input)● Multiplier effects (output)

Output: the impacts

Initial: The basic shock to the economy that occurs as a direct result of the change.

Direct: The effect of new input purchases by the initially changed industries. Change is due to inter-industry effects and captures the supply chain impact.

Indirect: The subsequent ripple effect in further supply chains resulting from the direct change.

Induced: Change due to new earnings, investment, and government created by the initial, direct, and indirect changes.

Essential vs. Non-Essential

Essential vs. Non-Essential Workers

● Identified by Homeland Security / Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).

● Based on 16 critical infrastructure sectors at the national level.

● Can vary heavily by region, state, county, and city.

https://www.cisa.gov/publication/guidance-essential-critical-infrastructure-workforce

https://www.cisa.gov/publication/guidance-essential-critical-infrastructure-workforce

Metros Over 500k Population

MSA NameHighest Share of Essential Workers

Bakersfield, CA 62.8%

Fayetteville, NC 62.2%

Stockton, CA 59.3%

Fresno, CA 59.2%

Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA 58.1%

Modesto, CA 57.0%

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 56.4%

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR 55.1%

Jackson, MS 55.1%

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 55.0%

Columbia, SC 55.0%

Urban Honolulu, HI 54.9%

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 54.8%

Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA 54.6%

Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA 53.8%

MSA NameHighest Share of

Non-Essential Workers

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 61.2%

Provo-Orem, UT 61.1%

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 56.7%

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 56.6%

Raleigh-Cary, NC 56.3%

Greenville-Anderson, SC 56.1%

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX 56.0%

Wichita, KS 55.8%

Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC 55.0%

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 54.9%

Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI 54.8%

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 54.6%

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 54.3%

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR 54.1%

Greensboro-High Point, NC 54.1%

Metros 100K-500K Population


Hanford-Corcoran, CA 75.5%

Jacksonville, NC 70.9%

Madera, CA 68.4%

Yakima, WA 68.3%

El Centro, CA 67.6%

Watertown-Fort Drum, NY 66.6%

Pottsville, PA 66.4%

Yuma, AZ 65.4%

Salinas, CA 65.1%

Rochester, MN 64.9%

Cheyenne, WY 64.4%

Lawton, OK 64.2%

Springfield, IL 64.0%

Wenatchee, WA 63.3%

Visalia, CA 63.3%



Ithaca, NY 69.3%

Dalton, GA 68.2%

Lawrence, KS 63.2%

Bloomington, IN 63.1%

Blacksburg-Christiansburg, VA 62.3%

Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN 61.6%

Auburn-Opelika, AL 61.1%

College Station-Bryan, TX 61.1%

Ann Arbor, MI 61.1%

Elkhart-Goshen, IN 60.6%

Boulder, CO 59.7%

State College, PA 59.5%

Bozeman, MT 59.3%

Muncie, IN 58.6%

Richmond-Berea, KY 58.5%

Metros Under 100K Population


Susanville, CA 77.9%

Othello, WA 77.8%

Hinesville, GA 77.4%

Dumas, TX 77.2%

Mountain Home, ID 74.9%

Hope, AR 74.7%

Guymon, OK 74.6%

Pecos, TX 74.4%

Hereford, TX 74.2%

Fort Leonard Wood, MO 73.6%

Worthington, MN 73.0%

Burley, ID 70.8%

Grants, NM 70.6%

Fort Morgan, CO 70.6%

Huron, SD 70.4%



Los Alamos, NM 81.8%

Pullman, WA 68.1%

Oxford, MS 66.1%

Columbus, IN 65.5%

Rexburg, ID 65.3%

Vermillion, SD 64.8%

Sturgis, MI 64.7%

Calhoun, GA 63.5%

Kokomo, IN 63.1%

Moscow, ID 62.9%

Laramie, WY 62.6%

Warsaw, IN 62.5%

Boone, NC 62.0%

Stillwater, OK 62.0%

Starkville, MS 61.4%

Example 1: Springfield, MO “Main Street”

Essential

Non-Essential

Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores

Example 2: Construction in Grand Rapids

Essential

Non-Essential

Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA

Pivoting to Resilient, In-Demand Skills

Pivoting to Resilient, In-Demand Skills

● It won’t be ‘business-as-usual’ as we start to re-open the economy.

● Strict guidelines and caution citizens will likely result in a staggered recovery.

○ High risk occupations

○ Large group settings

● What was in-demand last week could be out of style next week.

High Risk Occupations

● Based on data from US Department of Labor / O*NET.

● Occupations that require working in close physical proximity to others.

● Includes both essential and non-essential roles.

https://www.onetonline.org/find/descriptor/result/4.C.2.a.3

https://www.onetonline.org/find/descriptor/result/4.C.2.a.3

Large Group Settings

Total bummer but not a game-changer:

● Arts & Entertainment (sports, concerts, movies).● Recreation & Tourism (cruises, resorts, casinos).● Community Activities (festivals, farmer’s markets)

Very disruptive to everyday life:

● Schools & Childcare Centers

Not Just In-Demand. Resilient.

● The widely used phrase ‘rapidly changing economy’ took on an entirely new meaning last month.

● Labor supply-demand is a function of the economy -- ergo it can change just as fast.

● Resilience is the ability to withstand, to recover quickly, to spring back.

● A workforce equipped with resilient skills is more:

○ Agile

○ Adaptive

○ ...Resilient

Not Just In-Demand. Resilient.

Emsi analytics for the Springfield, MO MSA (based on job postings from 3/1/20 to 4/15/20)

Covid-19 Resources Page https://www.economicmodeling.com/covid-19-resources/

https://www.economicmodeling.com/covid-19-resources/

Questions?

Contact us!

John Hawkins [email protected]

Drew [email protected]

Thank you and stay healthy.

economic disruption in your community understanding the ... · resilient. the widely used phrase...

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