economic development organization conference
TRANSCRIPT
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Economic Development Organization Conference
April 6, 2016 Hilton Garden Inn, Erie, PA
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Agenda
• Appalachian oil and gas development
– Production, prices and performance
• Midstream and downstream development
• Impacts of resource development on regionaleconomic prospects
In other words …
1. What are we producing and
2. What are we going to do with it
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Geographic Context
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Value Proposition for our Region
Extraction of gas and
other products
Gas gathering
and processing
Ethane processing
Manufacturing of products
from methane and
petrochemical products
Cumulative regional
economic benefit
Lower energy costs for
homes and businesses
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Dynamic Oil and Gas Rig Count
Data Source: Energy Information Administration
According to Baker Hughes, lowest U.S. natural gas rig count
on record in late March 2016!
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Despite fewer new wells, production surges, especially in OH, PA
Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report, March 2016
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Increases in Productivity per Well
Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report, March 2016
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Natural Gas Price Declining - to a New Normal?
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Natural Gas Prices Over Time
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Natural Gas Cash Prices Regional Variability
Source: Wall Street Journal, 10.30.15
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Performance varies by Company
October 28, 2015
Financial performance: - One energy company excelled - Many in dead last - Most working to make it through
price trough
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Pipeline Development
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Barbour
Brooke
Doddridge
Hancock
Harrison
Marion
Marshall
Monongalia
Ohio
Pleasants
Preston
Ritchie
Taylor
Tyler
Wetzel
Wood
Belmont
Carroll
Columbiana
Coshocton
Guernsey
Harrison
Holmes
Mahoning
Medina
Monroe
Morgan
Muskingum
Noble
Portage
Stark
Summit
Trumbull
Tuscarawas
Washington
Wayne
Allegheny
Armstrong
Beaver
Butler
Clarion
Crawford
Fayette
Greene
Lawrence
Mercer
Venango
Washington
Westmoreland
West Virginia
Ohio
MWE Utica Counties MWE Marcellus Counties MWE Plants ATEX Express Pipeline TEPPCO Product Pipeline
Jefferson
Marcellus and Utica Expansion Projects
Mariner Projects
Rich Utica
Rich Marcellus
MWE Gathering Area
MWE NGL Pipelines
MarkWest alone had 22 Major projects under construction in 2013
MOBLEY COMPLEX Mobley I & II – 320 MMcf/d – Complete
Mobley III – 200 MMcf/d – 4Q13 Mobley IV – 200 MMcf/d – 1Q15
HOUSTON COMPLEX Houston I, II & III – 355 MMcf/d – Complete
Houston IV – 200 MMcf/d – 2015 C3+ Fractionation – 60,000 Bbl/d – Complete De-ethanization – 38,000 Bbl/d – Complete
SHERWOOD COMPLEX Sherwood I & II – 400 MMcf/d – Complete
Sherwood III – 200 MMcf/d – 4Q13 Sherwood IV – 200 MMcf/d – 2Q14
De-ethanization – 38,000 Bbl/d – 1Q15
HOPEDALE FRACTIONATOR C3+ Fractionation – 60,000 Bbl/d – 1Q14
KEYSTONE COMPLEX Bluestone I & Sarsen I – 90 MMcf/d – Complete
Bluestone II – 120 MMcf/d – 2Q14 Bluestone III – 200 MMcf/d – TBD
De-ethanization – 10,000 Bbl/d – 1Q14 C3+ Fractionation – 10,000 Bbl/d –1Q14
SENECA COMPLEX Seneca I – 200 MMcf/d – 4Q13 Seneca II – 200 MMcf/d – 4Q13 Seneca III – 200 MMcf/d – 2Q14
De-ethanization – 38,000 Bbl/d – 4Q14
MAJORSVILLE COMPLEX Majorsville I - III – 470 MMcf/d – Complete
Majorsville IV – 200 MMcf/d – 1Q14 Majorsville V – 200 MMcf/d – 4Q13 Majorsville VI – 200 MMcf/d – 2016
De-ethanization I – 38,000 Bbl/d – 4Q13 De-ethanization II – 38,000 Bbl/d – TBD
CADIZ COMPLEX Cadiz I & Refrig – 185 MMcf/d – Complete
Cadiz II – 200 MMcf/d – 3Q14 De-ethanization – 40,000 Bbl/d – 1Q14
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Value Proposition for our Region
Extraction of gas and
other products
Gas gathering
and processing
Ethane processing
Manufacturing of products
from methane and
petrochemical products
Cumulative regional
economic benefit
Lower energy costs for
homes and businesses
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
U.S. Natural Gas Use
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
We can continue to provide for our regional electricity needs
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Short-Term Energy Outlook
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Cost Savings to Manufacturers
Source: EIA, PWC Analysis
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Industrial sector energy consumption
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) Reference case
Industrial sector energy consumption
is expected to grow faster than all other sectors
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Shale Development = Manufacturing
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Balancing benefits of high and low natural gas prices for manufacturers
$0
$10+
Optimal range for both industry suppliers and downstream users
Manufacturer’s profit
Very low Very high
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Regional Ethane Story
Source: www.rangeresources.com
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Ethane => Ethylene Production (C2H4)
Product categories Adhesives
Alkyd resins
Solvents
Corrosion inhibitors
Textiles
Inks
Shampoos, detergents, soaps
Paints and paint remover
Coatings
Pipes, hoses, wire coating
Coolant, antifreeze
Films, packaging, bottles
Plastics
Tire and rubber
Lubricant additives
Solvent, industrial cleaners
22
Manufacturing Sectors Apparel and accessories
Beverage and tobacco products
Chemicals
Computers and electronics
Fabricated metal products
Food and kindred products
Leather and allied products
Nonmetalic mineral products
Paper
Petroleum and coal products
Pharmaceutical
Plastics and rubber products
Primary metal manufacturing
Printed matter
Textiles, fabrics and mill products
Transportation equipment Source: PWC, Shale Gas: Reshaping the US Chemicals Industry, October 2012
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Shale gas through ethane chain into manufactured products
Source: PWC and Top Line Analytics
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Manufacturing Jobs in PA (2014)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and ACC
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Announced Plastics Processor Projects by State
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Population Dynamics Will Bring Challenges and Opportunities
Data Source: US Census
Of the 169 Combined Statistical Areas
nationwide,
more than 30% of the regions with the
largest population losses are from the tri-state region
Population
Loss RankSize Rank
Combined
Statistical Area
2013
Estimate
2010
CensusChange
29
7
18
19
22
13
17
4
6
20
Pittsburgh-
New Castle-
Weirton, PA-
OH-WV
2,659,937 2,660,727 −0.03%
75Toledo-Port
Clinton, OH649,298 651,429 −0.33%
145
Parkersburg-
Marietta-
Vienna, WV-
OH
153,780 154,451 −0.43%
15
Cleveland-
Akron-Canton,
OH
3,501,538 3,515,646 −0.40%
102Erie-
Meadville, PA367,670 369,331 −0.45%
67
Charleston-
Huntington-
Ashland, WV-
OH-KY
702,984 708,228 −0.74%
74Youngstown-
Warren, OH-PA661,399 673,614 −1.81%
130
Mansfield-
Ashland-
Bucyrus, OH
217,624 221,398 −1.70%
131Johnstown-
Somerset, PA217,019 221,421 −1.99%
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Manufacturing Revolution? Critical Elements for Success
Infrastructure Ready Sites
Customer Base Workforce
Competitive Business Climate
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Where should we focus?
Skills in which manufacturing employees are most deficient
Skills shortage in different workforce categories
Source: The Skills Gap in US Manufacturing: 2015 and Beyond, Deloitte, The Manufacturing Institute, 2015
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Techniques to Mitigate Effects of Skill Shortages for Production Workforce
Source: The Skills Gap in US Manufacturing: 2015 and Beyond, Deloitte, The Manufacturing Institute, 2015
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Techniques to Mitigate Effects of Skill Shortages for Engineers, Scientists
Source: The Skills Gap in US Manufacturing: 2015 and Beyond, Deloitte, The Manufacturing Institute, 2015
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
University Research
• University of Pittsburgh, – Energy-Intensive manufacturing – Utilization for New Products – Applications of Additive and Advanced Manufacturing
• West Virginia University – Gas to liquids – Direct-use natural gas fuel cells – Natural gas combustion – Gas to chemicals
• Alkanes • Aromatics
Source: Tri-State SHALE Summit, Research and Innovation Panel, October 13, 2015
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Value Proposition for our Region
Extraction of gas and
other products
Gas gathering
and processing
Ethane processing
Manufacturing of products
from methane and
petrochemical products
Cumulative regional
economic benefit
Lower energy costs for
homes and businesses
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ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
ENERGY, ENVIRONMENTAL
AND ECONOMIC STRATEGIES
FOR BUSINESS
Questions and Answers
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Northwest Pennsylvania and the National Economy
with Thoughts on the Shale Play
Jim Robey, PhDW.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
April 6th, 2016
1W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
• The Institute is an activity of the W.E. Upjohn Unemployment Trustee Corporation, which was established in 1932 to administer a fund set aside by Dr. W.E. Upjohn, founder of the Upjohn Company.
• MISSION:– The W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research is a private,
nonprofit, nonpartisan, independent research organization devoted to investigating the causes and effects of unemployment, to identifying feasible methods of insuring against unemployment, and to devising ways and means of alleviating the distress and hardship caused by unemployment.
2
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Regional and Economic Planning Services
• Data Dissemination & Analysis• Economic Impact Studies• Economic & Workforce Development Strategy• Talent Assessment• Urban & Regional Planning
3
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Defining the Region
4
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
University of Michigan RSQE Forecast
2015( A c t u a l )
2016( F o r e ca s t )
2017( F o r e ca s t )
GDP(Percent) 2.4 2.3 2.8
Light Vehicle Sales ($Millions) 17.3 17.8 18.0
Unemployment Rate(Percent) 5.3 4.7 4.5
Housing Starts (Millions) 1.106 1.218 1.388
CPI/Inflation(Percent) 0.1 1.1 2.2
5
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Northwest PA hasn’t recovered from the recession, at least based on employment
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Inde
xed
Labo
r For
ce
Labor Force Index (2006 = 100)
NW Pennsylvania Pennsylvania United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, and Local Area Unemployment Statistics6
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
But from an value-added perspective, Northwest PA has recovered
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GRP
(201
5 M
$)
Perc
ent C
hang
e
Gross Domestic, State, and Regional Product
NW Pennsylvania Pennsylvania United States Real GRP
Source: Moody’s Analytics, and Upjohn Institute7
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
The labor market here is “tight”
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Perc
ent o
f Lab
or F
orce
Unemployment Rate
NW Pennsylvania Pennsylvania United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, and Local Area Unemployment Statistics8
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Unemployment Rate
9Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Lower labor force participation limits growth potential
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Perc
ent o
f Pop
ulat
ion
16 a
nd O
ver
Labor Force Participation
NW Pennsylvania Pennsylvania United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Moody’s Analytics
10
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Labor Force Participation Rate
11Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics, and Census Population Estimates
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Relatively low weekly wages: good on one hand and not so good on another
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Aver
age
Wee
kly
Wag
e, 2
015$
Average Weekly Wage
NW Pennsylvania Pennsylvania United States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Consumer Price Index12
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Average Weekly Wage
13Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Basic Demographics
Population Total
2000 734,274
2010 721,580
2016 (estimated) 705,081
2021 (projected) 696,358
Change Percent
2000–2010 −1.7
2010–2016 −2.3
2016–2021 −1.2
14Source: Claritas
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Household Income NW PennsylvaniaHH INCOME HOUSEHOLDS SHARE
<$15,000 38,705 13.6
$15,000 - $24,999 36,801 12.9
$25,000 - $34,999 34,402 12.1
$35,000 - $49,999 45,048 15.8
$50,000 - $74,999 54,465 19.1
$75,000 - $99,999 32,772 11.5
$100,000 - $124,999 19,892 7.0
$125,000 - $149,999 9,635 3.4
$150,000 - $199,999 7,066 2.5
$200,000 - $249,999 2,666 0.9
$250,000 - $499,999 2,746 1.0
$500,000+ 814 0.3
15Source: Claritas
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Shares of household income: skew to the lower levels
0
5
10
15
20
25
<15 15 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 49 50 - 74 75 - 99 100 -124
125 -149
150 -199
200 -249
250 -499
500+
Perc
ent o
f Hou
seho
lds
Income ($000s)
NWPA PA NY OH U.S.
16Source: Claritas
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Age CohortAge Number Percent
Age 0–4 37,444 5.3
Age 5–9 38,742 5.5
Age 10–14 41,244 5.9
Age 15–17 27,131 3.9
Age 18–20 33,404 4.7
Age 21–24 38,773 5.5
Age 25–34 81,324 11.5
Age 35–44 77,114 10.9
Age 45–54 93,353 13.2
Age 55–64 104,172 14.8
Age 65–74 72,872 10.3
Age 75–84 39,629 5.6
Over 85 19,879 2.8
17Source: Claritas
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Age cohort: skewed to be a little older
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Age 0-4
Age 5-9
Age 10–14
Age 15–17
Age 18–20
Age 21–24
Age 25–34
Age 35–44
Age 45–54
Age 55–64
Age 65–74
Age 75–84
Perc
ent o
f Per
sons
NWPA PA NY OH U.S.
18Source: Claritas
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Downstream Industries
• Based on NAICS codes• 3241 Petroleum and Coal: Refineries, paving
and shingle products, lubricating and grease• 3251 Basic Chemicals: Petrochemicals,
industrial gas, dye and pigments, and inorganics
• 3252 Resin, Synthetic Rubber, and Artificial Synthetic Fibers and Filaments
19
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Downstream Industries
• 3253 Pesticide, Fertilizer, and Other Agricultural Chemical Manufacturing
• 3255 Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing• 3259 Other Chemical Product and Preparation:
Ink, explosives, and other miscellaneous chemicals
• 3261 Plastics Product Manufacturing: Packaging, pipe, sheeting, urethane and foam, polystyrene, and formed products
20
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
National Downstream, 2011–2016
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-10 0 10 20 30 40
Empl
oym
ent C
hang
e (%
)
Gross Product Change (%)
Plastics product manufacturing(3261)
Petroleum and coal productsmanufacturing (3241)
Basic chemical manufacturing(3251)
Resin; synthetic rubber; andartificial synthetic fibers andfilaments manufacturing (3252)
Pesticide; fertilizer; and otheragricultural chemicalmanufacturing (3253)
Paint; coating; and adhesivemanufacturing (3255)
Other chemical product andpreparation manufacturing(3259)
21Source: Moody’s Analytics
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
National Downstream, 2016–2021
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
-5 5 15 25 35
Empl
oym
ent C
hang
e (%
)
Gross Product Change (%)
Plastics product manufacturing(3261)
Petroleum and coal productsmanufacturing (3241)
Basic chemical manufacturing(3251)
Resin; synthetic rubber; andartificial synthetic fibers andfilaments manufacturing (3252)
Pesticide; fertilizer; and otheragricultural chemicalmanufacturing (3253)
Paint; coating; and adhesivemanufacturing (3255)
Other chemical product andpreparation manufacturing(3259)
22Source: Moody’s Analytics
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Regional Downstream, 2011–2016
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-50 0 50 100 150 200
Empl
oym
ent C
hang
e (%
)
Gross Product Change (%)
Plastics product manufacturing(3261)
Petroleum and coal productsmanufacturing (3241)
Basic chemical manufacturing(3251)
Resin; synthetic rubber; andartificial synthetic fibers andfilaments manufacturing (3252)
Pesticide; fertilizer; and otheragricultural chemicalmanufacturing (3253)
Paint; coating; and adhesivemanufacturing (3255)
Other chemical product andpreparation manufacturing(3259)
23Source: Moody’s Analytics
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Regional Downstream, 2016–2021
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-10 0 10 20 30 40
Empl
oym
ent C
hang
e (%
)
Gross Product Change (%)
Plastics product manufacturing(3261)
Petroleum and coal productsmanufacturing (3241)
Basic chemical manufacturing(3251)
Resin; synthetic rubber; andartificial synthetic fibers andfilaments manufacturing (3252)
Pesticide; fertilizer; and otheragricultural chemicalmanufacturing (3253)
Paint; coating; and adhesivemanufacturing (3255)
Other chemical product andpreparation manufacturing(3259)
24Source: Moody’s Analytics
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
25Source: Avention and Juniper CRE
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Basic Chemical Manufacturing
26Source: Avention and Juniper CRE
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Resin, Synthetic Rubber, and Artificial Synthetic Fibers & Filaments Manufacturing
27Source: Avention and Juniper CRE
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Pesticide, Fertilizer, and Other Agricultural Chemical Manufacturing
28Source: Avention and Juniper CRE
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing
29Source: Avention and Juniper CRE
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Other Chemical Products and Preparation Manufacturing
30Source: Avention and Juniper CRE
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Plastics Product Manufacturing
31Source: Avention and Juniper CRE
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Total Downstream Employment
32Source: Avention and Juniper CRE
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Estimating Impacts from Investment
• Use Input/Output (I/O) model• The following are done using REMI
– Regional Economic Models, Inc.– www.remi.com
• Output effects for Employment– Direct: the direct jobs or capital investment– Indirect: regional/local suppliers– Induced: households supplying goods and services– Government
33
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
REMI: Adding 100 jobs in petroleum and coal products• Employment Outcomes
– Direct: 100– Indirect: 94– Induced: 231– Government: 3
• Value added: 93 Million• Personal income: $29 Million• Disposable personal income: $24 Million• Average wage/comp: $62,160/112,220
34
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
REMI: Adding 100 jobs in chemical manufacturing• Employment Outcomes
– Direct: 100– Indirect: 54– Induced: 95– Government: 2
• Value added: $45 Million• Personal income: $18 Million• Disposable personal income: $15 Million • Average wage/comp: $30,295/42,954
35
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
REMI: Adding 100 jobs in plastics and rubber manufacturing• Employment Outcomes
– Direct: 100– Indirect: 31– Induced: 54– Government: 1
• Value added: $20 Million • Personal income: $10 Million• Disposable personal income: $9 Million• Average wage/comp: $15,920/20,355
36
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W.E.
UPJOHN INSTITUTEFOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH
Questions/Comments?
• Jim Robey, Ph.D., – W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
– 269.343.5541– [email protected]
37
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A Cedarwood Company
National and Northwest Pennsylvania
INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
Dennis Burnside | Jun ipe r CRE Solu tions
April 6, 2016
Sponsored by
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AGEN DA
1. Nationa l Industria l Marke t
2. Northwest Pennsylvania Marke t
3. Site Se lection Process
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1 National Industrial Market
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National Industrial Snapshot Year End 2015
U.S. ove ra ll va ca n cy ra t e to 6.4%
• Warehouse – 8.6%
• Flex space – 6.1%
U.S. ove ra ll n e t a bsorp t ion was positive 97,177,108 square fee t
• Warehouse – positive 82,712,512 sq ft
• Flex space – positive 14,464,596 sq ft
4
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5
U.S. VACANCY RATES 2 0 0 0 -2 0 1 5
F LEX W AR EH O U S E TO TAL M AR KET
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
VA
CA
NC
Y R
AT
ES
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2015 U.S. Industrial Space Average Quoted Renta l Rates
• Industria l quoted ren ta l ra te 1.2% (Q3 to Q4)– Q3 : $5.69 /sq ft
– Q4 : $5.76 /sq ft
• Flex sector quoted ra te 0.5% (Q3 to Q4)– Q3: $11.43 /sq ft
– Q4: $11.49 /sq ft
• Warehouse quoted ra te 1.4% (Q3 to Q4)– Q3: $4.97 /sq ft
– Q4: $5.04 /sq ft
6
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7
INDUSTRIAL LEASES SELECT TO P 1 5
B U I L D I N G M A RK ET SF TEN A N T L A N D L O RD
1 Am a zon Boston 1,000,000 Am azon.com NAI Hunnem anCom m ercia l Com pany
2 Un ion Sta t ion Bu sin e ss Ce n te r Atlanta 987,840 Exe l Logistics Collie rs In te rna tiona l
3 ProLogis Pa rk I-210 – Bldg 1 Inland Em pire (Californ ia ) 882,230 Am azon Lee & Associa te s
4 Du ke Pe rr is Logis t ics Ce n te r –Bldg II
In land Em pire (Californ ia ) 783,407 Wayfa ir.com Duke Realty Corp .;
Collie rs In t.
5 5635 NE 14th St DesMoines 600,000 Monsanto The Graham Group Inc.
6 Mon sa n to Expa n sion - Ph a se 1 St. Louis 590,000 Monsanto Monsanto Com pany
7 75 Mill Rd Northe rn New Je rsey 571,000 List Logistics JLL
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8
8 5220 Robe rt J Ma th e ws Pkwy Sacramento 555,219 DST Output N/A
9 Wh ir lpool Bldg Nashville 505,000 Sinom ax NorthStar Real Esta te Advisors
10 He rm osa II In land Em pire (Californ ia ) 468,682 Am axi Nutrition JLL
11 Bu ford Logis t ics Ce n te r II -Bu ild in g B Atlanta 461,700 Best Buy CBRE
12 Boice Pon d Rd Orlando 451,823 Freem an Expositions, Inc. Cite Partne rs, LLC
13 8369 Millike n Ave Inland Em pire (Californ ia ) 441,970 Custom Goods LLC Prologis
14 301 Broa dwa y Northe rn New Je rsey 439,015 Nationa l Re ta il
System sHartz Mounta in Industrie s, Inc.
15 Tra m m e ll Crow a t 35 Ea gle -Bu ild in g D Dallas/Ft Worth 391,744 Exe l CBRE
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2 Northwest Pennsylvania Industrial Market
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Overview | Northwest Pennsylvania Industria l Rea l Esta te Marke t
10
Er ie
War ren
Crawford
For restVenango
Mercer
LawrenceClar ion
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Age of Existing Industrial Product
• Tota l existing square footage : 28,619,000
• Built since 1990: 5,670,000
• Built be fore 1990:22,949,000
• Built since 2000: 1,826,000
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Industrial Shifts
C A T E G O R Y A G R A R I A N R E VO L U T I O N
I N D U S T R I A LR E VO L U T I O N
L O G I S T I C S R E VO L U T I O N
Typica l Bu ild in g Size 100,000-300,000 SF 500,000-750,000 SF >1,000,000 SF
Docks Single Dock Cross Dock Cross Dock/U-Shape
Bu ild in g/La n d Ra t ios 50%-52% 48%-50% 40%-45%
Le a se s >15 Years 10-15 Years <10 Years
Typ ica l Ce ilin g He igh t 22 Fee t 32-36 Fee t 36-60 Fee t
SF/Dock Ra t ion s 1/10,000 1/5,000 1/3,000
Tra ile r Stora ge N/A 1/10,000 1/5,000
Sta ckin g Manual Forklifts Robotics
Bu ild in g Own e rs Local/Regiona l Regional/Nationa l Nationa l/Global
De sign Outside -In Deve loper-Driven
→→
Inside -OutTenant-Driven
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13
VACANCY RATE N O RTH WEST P EN N SYLVAN IA IN DUSTRIAL
B U I LT AF TER 1 9 9 0 (cu rre n t su rvey) B U I LT B EF O R E 1 9 9 0
Source : CoSta r Group , Inc.
VA
CA
NC
Y R
AT
ES
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14
ASKING RENTAL RATES N O RTH WEST P EN N SYLVAN IA IN DUSTRIAL
B U I LT B EF O R E 1 9 9 0
Source : CoSta r Group , Inc.
B U I LT AF TER 1 9 9 0 (cu rre n t su rvey)R
EN
TAL
RA
TE
S P
ER
SF
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15
ABSORPTION CUMULATIVE N ET
Ligh t Ma n u fa ctu ring
AS OF 12/31/2015
LIND - < 1990 & 25k + SF
LIND - 25k + SF
LIND – 1990+ & 25k + SF
TOTAL
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16
ASKING RENT LEVELS AN D AN N UAL GRO WTH
AS OF 12/31/2015
Na t iona l Askin g Re n t
Askin g Re n t
Re n t Growth Y/Y
RE
NT
PE
R S
F
AN
NU
AL
RE
NT
GR
OW
TH
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17
SALES VOLUM E AN D MEDIAN P RICE
AS OF 12/31/2015
Na t iona l Price pe r SF
Price pe r SF
Volum e
ME
DIA
N P
RIC
E P
ER
SF
SA
LE
S V
OL
UM
E IN
MIL
LIO
NS
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3 Site Selection Process
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HOW CAN CO MMUNITIES BE READY WHEN O P P O RTUNITY KNO CKS?
Can somebody get that please?
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SITE LO CATIO N D ECISIO N P RO CESS
A systematic, tim e-tested
approach to he lp ing
com panies resolve business
loca tion cha llenges
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Has the Site Se lection Process/Industry Changed?21
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• Preparation of baseline information questionnaire
• Client completes questionnaire– Profile of any existing
locations– Operational needs of the new
facility
• Location criteria defined/ weighted
• Finalization of information/ criteria
• Establish expectations
22
Site Selection Process
PHASE Define the Objectives – Founda tions of Search
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• De sktop re se a rch a n d ou t re a ch to EDO a ge n cie s
• Systematic elimination of areas within the defined search region
• Basic criteria (e.g., minimum population size) introduced early on
• Longlist (7-8) of promising contenders emerges
• Additional research conducted on each area’s operational fit
• Longlist ranked/scored• Shortlist (often three areas)
recommended
23
Site Selection Process
PHASE Location Filtering
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24
• Fie ld -based eva lua tion , includ ing:– Em ployer in te rviews, site /bu ild ing
tours, GIS m apping, and o the r em pirica l re sea rch
– Seeking a m atch , then ranked /scored , am ong:
– Dem and/supp ly
– Quality/ stab ility
– Cost
– Union iza tion
• Best subm arke ts ta rge ted
• Severa l site s/bu ild ings shortlisted
• Recom m endations tende red– Best loca tion
– Shortlist site s/bu ild ings
– Most viab le a lte rna tives
Locations
Site s/bu ild ings
Site Se lection Process
PHASE Loca tion Se lection
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25
• Assist clien t’s rea l e sta te team to assess shortlisted site s on :
– Access
– Taxes
– Utilitie s
• Under fina l incen tives negotia tions
– Working close ly with clien t’s rea l e sta te team and othe r in te rna l p laye rs (e .g., tax, lega l, corpora te a ffa irs)
– Best/fina l offe rs rece ived
– Multi-year savings re fined
– Fina liza tion and docum enta tion of de ta ils
• Recom m end and support
Site Se lection Process
PHASE Site Se lection
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SITE SELECTIO NTHE PROCESS
IN ACTION
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• Access to accurate data
• Clarity
• Efficiency and timeliness
• Updated website that is ED leaning
• Single point of contact, who has the answers or can get them quickly
• Facts vs. sa les p itch
“All Hands on Deck”
– Schools
– Fire and sa fe ty
– Parks and recrea tion
– Finance
– Hum an re sources from othe r com pan ies
– Labor (if on board )
– Elected officia ls
– Real e sta te deve lope rs and owners
27
What’s Im portan t to Site Se lectors (and , the re fore , the ir clien ts)?
“Just the facts, ma’am.”
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Everyone on the Same Page
• Share da ta
• Com m unica te with each othe r
• Rehearse story
Exam ples of where th ings went wrong …
28
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Economic Development Committee
• Exam ple : Highland He ights, Ohio
– Citizens
– Business leaders
– Finance
– Eight to 10 m em bers
29
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Features and BenefitsFea ture
– Workforce
– Em ployer base
– Location
– Train ing program
– Bricks and m ortar/site s
– Transporta tion
– Quality of life
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Bene fit
– ?
– ?
– ?
– ?
– ?
– ?
– ?
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Curren t Challenges Facing Com panies
How can you he lp?
– Attracting workforce
– Bricks and m orta r
– Reduce costs
– Speed to m arke t
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Learn from Other Communities
• Observe
• Visit
• Engage
• Collabora te
• Regiona l pe rspective
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Q U ESTIO N S Thank you.
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Regional PartnershipsElectricity 101
Lisa NentwickManager, Economic Development
Economic Development Conference April 6, 2016
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Transmission Service
FirstEnergy Overview 2
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Cost to Serve Requests for Large Loads
General (minimum)In-Service DateLocationInitial peak loadEstimated peak load in 5
yearsEstimated peak load in 10
years– Also need non-conforming
loads that impact our system (large motors, arc furnaces)
Why we Need It? Determine Available Capacity
Measure Impact on System
Load Study includes other
projects in area
Planning for Growth
MOST OF ALL …
TIME ! !SW PA Economic Development Conference November 10, 2015 3
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Transmission Line Extension Example
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Transmission Line Extension Example
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Pennsylvania Shale Projects
■ Pipeline Projects– multiple compressor stations in three PA operating companies to support the Mariner East 1 & 2 pipeline project to deliver propane and ethane from the liquid-rich Marcellus Shale areas in Western Pennsylvania to the Marcus Hook facility, where it will be processed, stored, and distributed to various domestic and waterborne markets.
■ Midstream Projects– new and expansion projects– Cyrogenic processing plants – Fractionation Plants– Compressor stations
200 MW of new load is expected in Pennsylvania within the next three years with more prospective projects in the pipeline.
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Economic Development Tools - Location One (LOIS)
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Introduction to LOIS
FirstEnergy Overview 8
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Economic Development Tools
■ IMPACTfactor+ – computer simulation program for economic development
■ Identifies measurable effects associated with a specific activity in a specific location
■ Typical economic development activities include:– New business attraction– Retention or expansion– Value of existing business base– Creation of a new business– An increase in “export” activity will result in spin-off spending in the
local economy
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ImpactFactor+■ Provides data on the economic base of each county in the model
including jobs, wages and output by industry (this determines in part what purchases can occur locally)
■ Provides data on inter-industry purchasing patterns nationally and within the local area (this determines supplier impacts)
■ Provides data on household purchasing patterns at different income levels
■ This data is used to create the multipliers– Impact Components
– Economic– Real Estate– Revenue
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Promotion to Site Selectors
FirstEnergy Overview 11
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Moody’s Analytics – Available for your Region
FirstEnergy Overview 12
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Moody’s Analytics (Continued)
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FirstEnergy Overview 14