economic development of space (eds): examination and simulation · 2016. 9. 27. · economic...

Economic Development of Space (EDS)SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

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Mr. A.C. CharaniaSenior FuturistSpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

Dr. John E. BradfordPresidentSpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

Dr. John R. OldsTechnical FellowSpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

Economic Development of Space (EDS): Examination and SimulationIAC-05-E3.3.08

56th International Astronautical Congress (IAC)17-21 October 2005Fukuoka, Japan


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Introduction


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Vision for Space Exploration (VSE)


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National Vision for Space Exploration (VSE)

Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond

Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations;

Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration; and

Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests.

THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL OF THIS VISION IS TO ADVANCE U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTEREST THROUGH A ROBUST SPACE

EXPLORATION PROGRAM


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NASA’s Current Plan: Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS)

“Single Train” Departing for Moon After Earth-Orbit Rendezvous (EOR) Economic Development of Space (EDS)SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

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Source: www.nasa.gov

Lunar Surface (starting in 2018, 4 people x 7 days x 2 missions per year) Economic Development of Space (EDS)SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

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Source: www.nasa.gov


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“Emerging” Space


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SpaceX: Falcon Launch Vehicle FamilySource: www.spacex.com

TBDFalcon 1

$100 million contract thru 2010

US Air Force

VandenbergFalcon 1 Q4 2008 Swedish Space Corp.

VandenbergFalcon 1 Q3 2008 MDA Corp.

VandenbergFalcon 1 Q2 2008 US Commercial

KwajaleinFalcon 9 Q1 2008Bigelow Aerospace

KwajaleinFalcon 9 Q2 2007 US Government

KwajaleinFalcon 1 Q2 2006Malaysia (ATSB)

VandenbergFalcon 1 Q4 2005US Defense Dept (OSD/NRL)

KwajaleinFalcon 1 Q4 2005US Defense Dept (DARPA)

Departure PointVehicleLaunch DateCustomer

SpaceX Falcon Launch Manifest (ref. 10/14/05)

Bigelow Aerospace: Inflatable Habitats Economic Development of Space (EDS)SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

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Components of EDS Project


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Project Objectives

This study shall examine and simulate potential future scenarios of commercialization of space and how they relate to the United States of America National Vision for Space Exploration (VSE).

1. This activity shall develop specific recommendations on how the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) can utilize government and commercial products and services to meet the goals of the VSE. OUTPUT: REPORT

2. This activity shall include the development and use of an economic and market simulation model referred to as the Nodal Economic Space Commerce (NESC) model. The markets to be modeled include all current major government and commercial markets as well as overlays of future markets (space tourism, space solar power, etc.).OUTPUT: MODEL

Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) in 2004Exploration Systems Research and Technology (ESR&T) Office Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD)National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)Note: Out of 3500+ Notices of Intent From Industry and then 500 full proposals, only 70 were selected for funding

Objectives

Activities

Funding Source


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Team Members

A.C. Charania (Principal Investigator)Dr. John R. OldsDr. John E. BradfordDominic DePasquale Jeff Whitfield

Carissa Bryce ChristensenElaine GreshamCarie Mullins

Dr. Hiroshi Kanamori

Hideki Kanayama

Derek Webber

Dr. Robert Alexander Goehlich

Marco A. Caceres

Gregg Maryniak

Dr. Wendell Mendell

SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

The Tauri Group, LLC

Shimizu Corporation (Japan)

CSP Japan, Inc. (Japan)

Spaceport Associates

Keio University (Japan)

Teal Group Corporation

X-Prize Foundation

NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC)

EDS Workshops


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Overview of EDS Workshop 1

Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel, Washington, D.C. USA17-18 May 2005 (1 ½ Day Workshop)Presentations, Facilitated Group Discussion, Breakout Working GroupsNon-Traditional Aerospace, Government, Academic

Develop a series of recommendations representative of the combined voice of the emerging, non-traditional commercial space industry, to NASA based on responses to the following major questions:- “How can the commercial industry help NASA, and specifically the ESMD, achieve its space exploration goals and objectives in the areas related to Earth-to-Orbit (ETO) cargo/human launch and habitats, or ACCESS and ACTIVITIES?”- “What does NASA need to do to change its requirements to facilitate and enable the commercialization of space?”

Presentations were given by SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI), NASA Headquarters (Chris Moore and Doug Comstock), Erik Lindbergh (X-Prize Foundation), Gregg E. Maryniak (X-Prize Foundation), and Marco Caceres (Teal Group). Four breakout meetings and three plenary sessions were held in total during the one and half days of the workshop. One-on-one interviews were conducted of selected invitees related to the NESC model development. Results were documented for future use. A final CD was given out to all participants. A short face-to-face all-hands meeting for the team occurred after the end of the workshop on Day 2.

LocationDate

FormatPrimary Organizations Desired

Primary Goal

Major Question No. 1

Major Question No. 2

Results

EDS Workshop 1: Washington, D.C. (17-18 May 2005) Economic Development of Space (EDS)SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

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Overview of EDS Workshop 2

Las Vegas, NV USA20 July 2005 (1 Day Workshop)Presentations, Group Discussion

Examine future drivers for economic development of space

EDS project overview and updateTeam member presentationsExamine and discuss case studies of the future space marketplaceExamine NESC model and associated issues

Overview of NESC modelUpdate on progress of NESC model demonstration Discuss and examine market modeling

Examine and discuss technologies and potential gaps

Presentations were given by SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) and other EDS team members. NESC model was demonstrated. Results were documented for future use. A CD with presentations was given out to all participants. A short face-to-face all-hands meeting for the team occurred after the end of the workshop on Day 1.

LocationDate

Format

General Goal

Specific Tasks

Results


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EDS Workshop 2: Las Vegas, NV (20 July 2005) Economic Development of Space (EDS)SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)

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Nodal Economic Space Commerce(NESC) Model


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Simulation Modeling


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Trying to Model the World (or even a small piece of it)

Source: Stephen Eubank, “Social Networks and Epidemics,” Basic and Applied Simulation Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory

The world is complex

Complex group interactions

Simple individual/agent behaviors

Conditions change -> agent behaviors change

Microsoft Excel – strains to model complexity


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Simulation Modeling

Different philosophies of modeling- Equation-Based- Simulation-Based

Agent-based: allows heterogeneous agents with varied and dynamic behavior

Simulation can represent plants and animals in ecosystems, vehicles in traffic, people in crowds, or autonomous characters in animation and games

Models typically consist of environment or framework in which interactions occur and some number of individuals defined in terms of their behaviors

- A system is modeled as a collection of autonomous decision-making entities called agents

- The characteristics of each individual are tracked through time

“Global consequences of local interactions of members of a population”

“Managers for the first time will be able to use them to test the impact of their decisions before implementing them in the real world.”

Sources: http://www.red3d.com/cwr/ibm.htmlJohn A. Byrne, “FLIGHT SIMULATORS FOR MANAGEMENT: Computer models may give execs previews of how decisions pan out”http://www.businessweek.com/1998/38/b3596135.htm


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Selected Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) Examples

School voucher programs

Decision making in closed regimes

Modeling the size of wars

Voting dynamics

Self-organizing computer networks

Multi-cellular tumors

Simulation for the everglades/big cypress region of south Florida

Growth of individual plants and interactions with individual insects

Social behavior in rat pups modeled by simple rules of individual behavior

Individual and collective actions of people in large temporary gatherings (crowds, mobs, etc.)

Modeling of prehistoric settlement systems in southwestern North America

Individual-based models of the music CD business

Electricity markets of how customers respond to different price patterns for electrical power

Movement of individuals across the transportation network (use of cars or buses by the second)

Seating in a theater, how the appropriate number of people decide to show up for an event

Micro-analytic model to simulate the U.S. economy (agents represent various decision-makers)

Source: http://www.red3d.com/cwr/ibm.html


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NESC Overview


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Nodal Economic Space Commerce Model (NESC) Overview

The Nodal Economic Space Commerce (NESC)model is a dynamic, agent-based space market simulation and financial engineering tool

- Between competitors, includes current and future competitors (expendable and reusable)Entrance of new competitors within existing and new markets, collusion of established entities against new entrantsCompanies compete for customers with the goal of maximizing revenuesEach company autonomously decides its pricing strategy given its unique capacity, costs, and vehicle characteristicsModel outputs financial health of each company

- Different types of markets and sub-markets (duopoly, monopoly, etc.)- Impact of the government actions (technology investment, anchor contracts, tax credits, etc.) upon

commercial entities

Agent-based- The companies are represented in the model by “agents,” defined in part by case studies completed by EDS

team members- Each agent decides for itself which actions to perform at what time, based on external conditions and private

internal aspects (current beliefs, desires, etc)

Agent-based software provides the framework for creating agent-based models

Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit (RePast) ultimately selected for available libraries, maturity, and ease of use

- Repast is an open-source software framework for creating agent-based simulations using the Java programming language

- Developed by Social Science Research Computing at University of Chicago 01/2000: http://repast.sourceforge.net

- Modeled on Swarm agent software but easier to use and better documentedSources: http://www.duncanrobertson.com/research/simulation.htm, http://sourceforge.net/projects/repast/, http://complexityworkshop.com/cw/tutorial/RePast/index.html


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Sub-orbital Space Tourism Implementation


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The Customers: 10-point “Profile of a Space Tourist”

1) They aren’t rocket scientists.

2) They may be “super-sized”.

3) They won’t really care where you put your spaceport.

4) They shouldn’t be expected to meet stringent physical requirements.

5) They don’t like surprises and expect perfection.

6) They aren’t overly concerned with price or safety.

7) They’re short on time.

8) They’ll likely be men over 50.

9) They will come from around the globe.

10) They’re nothing like the tourists that show up at Disney parks.

Source: Jane Reifert, President of Incredible Adventures, Inc., “Confessions of a Space Tourism Operator”, www.space.com/news/050513_tourism_confessions.html, Leonard David, Space.com, 13 May 2005.


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NESC Dynamics

Company A

Has unique:Costs

Vehicle CharacteristicsDiscount rate

Desires to maximize:Profits = Sales - Cost

3

Limited information sharing:• Price from prior year• Vehicle characteristics

Company BSame logic as Company

A but with different product

Company CSame logic as Company

A but with different product

Company adjusts pricing strategy:• Stay at current• Higher• Lower• Match competitor

4

4

4

1Price offering per year Customers purchase

21

2

orSpace Tourism Market

P

QQ*

P*

Potential Market Multipliers

Use Aggregate Market Curve

Model Individual Customers


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A Sub-Orbital Space Tourism Customer “Agent”

Used to make purchase choices

Willingness to Pay (Wealth Surveys)Interest

Behaviors

Dependent on company offering

Reliability (linear)Appeal (linear)

Windows (LMNoP- Georgia Tech model)Seat Belt Freedom (Futron Study)

Company Interest Factors

Changes with time

Pioneer or Imitator

Diffusion Interest Factors

Constant with time

Base interest in suborbital

Base Interest Factors

Who is the Customer?

Does the customer want

to buy?

Who does the customer want to buy from?


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NESC v0.2 Formulation on PC Desktop


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NESC v0.2 Model Visual Interface: Inputs

Visual Representation of Market “MARKET” Agent Inputs Main RePast Execution Toolbar

NESC Global Settings Toolbar

Agent “A” Inputs Agent “B” Inputs Agent “C” Inputs


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ISS Support Market Implementation


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NASA ESAS: ISS Completion Options (26 Flights versus 16 Flights)Source: NASAWatch.com


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Recent Quotes from the NASA Administrator

So it is a real dilemma - it is a real dichotomy: how do we engage competition and position ourselves to take advantage of the successes and accept the failures which inevitable occur in that environment while, at the same time, meeting the goals and objectives that we have as managers? What I've come to, after considerable thinking (with some discussion and modifications to come) - for NASA: the best way to do that is to utilize the market that is offered by the International Space Station and its requirements to supply crew and cargo as the years unfold. So, there will - and there must - be a government-derived capability to service the space station even after the shuttle is retired. But because there must be such a capability does not imply to us that that is the way we would most prefer - to have cargo and crew logistics requirements for the station satisfied. What I would like to do is be able to buy those services from industry…There is a line in our budget called "ISS Crew and Cargo". It is not overly well-funded right now - a couple of hundred million dollars…We plan to use that to get us started on that process.

[You can] expect to see the government looking to "make a deal" in a commercial sense. Again, rather than issuing a prime contract focused on process and on very detailed specifications on "how to do" things, [you should] look for a deal-making arrangement where we tell you what it is we want the requested services or good to be able to perform. For those of you that have spent any time in the world of communication satellites - look for that to be the model rather than the CEV procurement.

[You should] look for us to conduct such a competitive procurement - and [you should] look for us to pick a "leader" with whom we will get started - and also to fund a couple of "followers" at the study level in case the leader falls off the track. Because, the leader is only going to continue to get his money if progress continues to be met. We will set up verifiable milestones, agreed upon in the deal, the way that any commercial deal would be done…[You should] look for us to conduct our contracting on a fixed price basis…In exchange for that [you should] look to be required to provide a commitment to sell at a specified price if I provide a commitment to buy - at a specified number…There won't be balloon payments at the end and there won't be "get well" arrangements if you screw up. On the other hand, there will be fairly substantial rewards for people who can deliver.

Source: Mike Griffin Reveals His Commercialization Vision for NASA: Parts 1 and 2, NASA Administrator Mike Griffin Remarks to the Space Transportation Association, Washington, D.C., Tuesday, June 21, 2005, http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1034, http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1035, www.nasa.gov/pdf/119275main_ Griffin_STA_21_June_2005.pdf


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ISS Cargo Supply/Delivery Balance with Shuttle Retirement

Source: ISS Commercial Cargo Service:Requirements & Constraints Summary, ISS Commercial Cargo Service, Industry Day Conference, April 25, 2005, Valin Thorn - ISS Strategic Planning & Requirements Office

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

Mas

s (K

g)

•Assembly Hardware is not included•Accommodation masses are not included•Crew rotation mass not included

3 ISS Crew 6 ISS Crew 6 ISS Crew

ISS Assembly ISS Assembly Complete

Crew Supplies, Water, and Gas

Internal Maintenance and EVA Hardware

Internal Utilization

External Utilization

External Maintenance

U.S. - Russian Bilateral Obligations

Baseline Capability

Commercial Cargo Services

Matt Scheutz & Neil Lemmons / SABER SAI


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ISS Support Market Implementation in NESC

Goal: Develop an agent-based simulation model of the ISS crew and cargo support markets

- Simulation will run scenarios where various commercial and government agents will interact and deliver services for various prices

Potential future service providers in a post Shuttle, post 2010 timeframe- US Commercial: United State commercial companies providing services for both crew and cargo. Particular companies that could

be potential players include: Andrews Space, Blue Origin, t/Space, Rocketplane Limited, SpaceX, SpaceDev, SpaceHab, Constellation Services International (CSI), Microcosm, TGV, Virgin Galactic, etc.

- US Government: United States-NASA based Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) sending astronauts to ISS along with a modified version of the CEV providing cargo

- Russian Current: Russian Soyuz (for crew) and Progress (for cargo) launches, perhaps not enough to maintain a full crew- Russian Future: Russian Kilper providing crew delivery, as follow-on to Soyuz services- European: European Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) providing cargo delivery- Japanese: Japanese module providing cargo delivery, H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV)

Outputs of Interest from a Government/NASA Perspective

- The cost of commercially provided space station services as compared to use of the CEV

- The number of companies that can viably exist in a space station resupply market and the economic impacts of purchasing from commercial providers

- Impact of expected reliability of commercial providers- Quantity of funding freed for the lunar exploration initiative as a result of using lower cost station resupply providers, if they exist

Outputs of Interest from a Commercial Company Perspective

- The impact of prices and mass/volume requirements upon the financial metrics of commercial companies

- The feasibility of market capture in the face of competition from other companies and possibly NASA itself with the CEV- The effect of various market conditions on company financial success including NASA contracting decisions- Targets for top-level metrics such as cost and reliability in order to be profitable


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Summary


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Summary of EDS Project

EDS Workshops 1 and 2 were successful in engaging both EDS team and external representatives of commercial space companies (integrated workshop report out soon)Proper start on NESC modeling in RePast framework

- Multiple lessons learned from initial development- Interest from space industry on outputs

After sub-orbital space tourism market, next major case to be examined will be ISS cargo/crew support market

- NASA HQ decisions to implement innovative acquisition approaches for such services and multiple companies have interest in responding to such an RFP

EDS Team @ Workshop 2 (20 July 2005, Las Vegas, NV) Nodal Economic Space Commerce (NESC) Model v0.2


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Contact Information

Business Address:SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)1200 Ashwood ParkwaySuite 506Atlanta, GA 30338 U.S.A.

Phone: 1.770.379.8000Fax: 1.770.379.8001

Internet:WWW: www.sei.aeroE-mail: [email protected]

Senior Futurist: Mr. A.C. CharaniaPhone: 770-379-8006E-mail: [email protected]

President: Dr. John E. BradfordPhone: 770-379-8007E-mail: [email protected]

Technical Fellow: Dr. John R. OldsPhone: 770-379-8002E-mail: [email protected]

economic development of space (eds): examination and simulation · 2016. 9. 27. · economic...

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