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Economic Development

livelihoods

Conservation

Forest values

Biodiversity

Protected areas

Poverty reduction


livelihoods

Conservation

Forest values

Biodiversity

Protected areas

Poverty reduction

Global demands -Local needs

Widening the scope of Forest-based Climate Mitigati on Options in the Tropics

Gerhard Dieterle Forest Adviser, The World Bank

September 14, 2011

Climate

Global Environmental Services

Rondonia Brazil 1975

(NASA Visible Earth website

But how pervasive is deforestation???

Global forest cover and deforestation hotspots.

Sources of emission in selected Sources of emission in selected Carbon rich CountriesCarbon rich Countries..

Indonesia a significant emitter due to forestry and land use change

Source: PT P.E.A.C.E., 2007 compiled from IEA’s 2005 annual statistics, US EPA 2006, and Houghton 2003. If EU included, Indonesia stands 4th. Estimate subject to uncertainty.

Energy emissions lower, but growing fast

88

• Every year we lose an area the size of England to deforestation

• Emissions from deforestation exceed total annual CO2 emissions

from USA or China

• Emissions from deforestation far exceed those of transportation

sector – more than every car, airplane and train in the world

• Accelerating trend towards large scale investments in agribusiness

and biofuels

Poverty and agricultural conversion are the main causes of deforestation

Drivers

of

Deforestation

� Deforestation causes 16 - 20% of carbon emissions, but

� Account for the majority of emissions in Least Developed Countries

� Forests could provide 33% of the GHG abatement required

9

Forestsplay a

central rolein GHG

Abatement in

Developing Countries

Impacts of large scale farming on

forest plantations,

Riau, Indonesia

Source: Uryu, Y. et al. 2008 (used with permission

Erosion and water quality reduction due to deforestation and forest degadation

�Slash and burn agriculture

�Shifting Agriculture

Forest-based climate change

mitigation potential

- Substitution not included -

12

Opportunity:

Landscape Restoration

andClimate-Smart

Agriculture

� Restoration potential is high: at least 2 billion hectares (WRI 2011)

� There are plenty of successful examples of restored landscapes

� Productive landscapes benefit local livelihoods, improve food security, create jobs and income, improve environmental services

� Combining Agriculture + Agriculture + Forestry

� Growing momentum at international level:� Global Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative� Meeting of African Ministers (Sept 2011)� The Hague Conference� Hope to include in UNFCCC agenda

Climate ‘Smart’Agriculture

Landscape Restoration and Promoting Climate-smart

Agriculture

� Intensify commercial agriculture away from forest frontiers

- intensification using ‘climate smart’ and labour intensive methods

enables increases in productivity, while also drawing labour away from forests

� Intensify small scale and subsistence agriculture

-Increasing agricultural productivity using ‘climate smart’ methods will enable farmers to increase their productivity and meet household food security objectives

� Promote and support agroforestry

-effective way of increasing tree and forest cover in agricultural systems as well as providing bi-products of particular benefit to

smallholders e.g. wood fuel, fodder, diverse food products.

� Create payments for ecosystem services schemes

-Payments to landholders for maintenance of existing forests will discourage agricultural expansion to forest lands

Challenge:

Feeding 9

billion people

in 2050

while

conserving

and

enhancing

integrity of

ecosystems

Opportunity:

Addressing Energy demand

and Supply

• 95 % of total bioenergy supply from solid biomass

• 60-80 % of total energy supply in developing countries from solid biomass

• Massive expansion of solid biomass needs in Africa up to 2030 and beyond

• massive expansion of liquid biofuel feedstock in developing countries could compete with energy and food supply needs for local populations

• additional land pressure from increased demand for modern solid biomass (pellets) in Europe and North America

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Africa

South Asia

Middle East and North Africa

Latin America and Caribbean

Europe and Central Asia

East Asia and Pacific

Australia, Japan, New Zealand

European Union (27) + 3

North America

Primary energy supply in MTOE

Traditional uses (wood) Traditional uses (agricultural residues)

Production of heat and power Internal use in forestry and agricultural processing

2005

2030

Competition between biofuel and traditional bioenergy uses

- Total primary energy supply from

primary solid biomass by region and type in 2005

and 2030 -

Opportunity:

Addressing large scale

investments and “land

grab”

for :

biofuelscommodities

fiber

18

Land acquisitions: Verified area for selected countries 2000-2010

Potential land use competition

from first-generation

biofuel expansion in developing countries

Increased Demand for Biofuels Likely to Lead to Consi derable Conversion of Forest Land

Projected increase land for biofuels, 2030

Land Classified as Suitable for feedstocks

Source: IIASA, 2009

1.4 m ha intersections; 418 overlaps

Large Scale Investments in Mozambique

Global environmental

effectsof selected

biofuel feedstocks

22

Commodity Roundtables

can complement

REDD+ in avoiding

deforestation

Standards for land conversion

within major commodity roundtables

“Zero Deforestation

Targets”

Commodity

2010 Global Production 2010 Sustainable Production

% of Total Certified

% Pledge

Standard

Timber 1,567 M m3 (round wood equi.)

132.8 M m3 (round wood equi.)

8.4% FSC

Pulp and Paper

380 Million Mt 200 M Mt (FSC & recycled)

5.6% FSC47% (Rec)

FSC

Soy 251.7 Million Mt 0.5 M Mt 0.2% RTRS

Palm Oil 47 Million Mt 3 M Mt 6.3% RSPO

Cotton 24 Million Mt (cotton lint) 0.1 M Mt 0.4% BCI

Sugar 164 M Mt 0 0% BSI

Biofuels Bioethanol: 6.5 M MtBiodiesel: 6 M Mt; Biomass (pellet production): 100 M Mt

0 0% RSB

Tuna 4 Million Mt 0.02 M Mt 0.5% MSC

Whitefish

8 Million Mt 3.5 M Mt 43% MSC

Salmon Aq.

1.2 Million Mt 0 0% ASC

Shrimp Aq.

2.5 Million Mt 0 0% ASC

Beef Coco

a

Coffee Palm Oil Sugar Soy Cotton Shrimp White Fish

� Laws- that are consistent across countries and favou r legal and sustainable trade. E.g.

� The US Lacey Act and the EU Due Diligence Legislati on both fully ban the import of illegal forest products,

� The EU’s Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trad e (FLEGT) action plan discourages illegal logging

� Bilateral agreements and MOUs- that directly promote legal and sustainable trade. E.g.

� The EU’s Voluntary Partnership Agreements with trop ical wood exporting countries aim to support improved forest governance and to ensure EU imports from these countries are legal

� Public procurement policies -that require legal and sustainably sourced products. Such policies should recognize credible v oluntary certification schemes

� Promotion of credible certification schemes- needs t o be expanded and scaled up.

� The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), along with mu lti-stakeholder roundtables are initiatives that help companies pro gress toward certified production of commodities such as timber, cotton, s ugar, soy and palm oil.

Opportunity:

Promoting Sustainable

Forest Management

and Good Governance

through consumer demand

and the Value Chain

Promotinglegal

logging through forest

certification

Globally Certified Area by FSC by forest type

Development of carbon stocks

in

- soil- living biomass

and - product

substitution

Scenario A, B

Multiple-benefits of common forestry

practices

Opportunity:Climate Change Mitigation Opportunities in the Forest

Production ChainectorTransportation

About 9% of emissions in FPI Limited opportunities

Plantations

Huge opportunities.Key is previous land-use.

Biofuel & Cogeneration:

Energy > ½ all emissions.

Large opportunities.

Conversions

Limited emissions Limited opportunities

Waste Management

i) Post-consumer recycling. ii) Utilization of waste wood.

Large opportunities.

SFM Natural Forests

Huge opportunities.Carbon in wood harvested & avoided deforestation.

Opportunity 6:

REDD+ and Biodiversity

Risks for biodiversity REDD+ Activity Opportu nities for biodiversityconservation

Displacement of land use change to non-forest or low carbon ecosystems

Reduced deforestation

Spatial planning for biodiversity

Continued extractive pressures

Reduced forest degradation

Slowed habitat loss and fragmentation

Low tree diversity Conservation of forest carbon stocks

Recovery of forest structure

Non-native or non-local species

Sustainable management of forest

Recovery of forest composition

Afforestation of valuable non-forest ecosystems or natural forests

Enhancement of forest carbon stocks

Increased forest area

Increased forest connectivity Typical

Depends strongly on approach


livelihoods

Conservation

Forest values

Biodiversity

Protected areas

Poverty reduction


livelihoods

Conservation

Forest values

Biodiversity

Protected areas

Poverty reduction

Thank You!

www.worldbank.org/forests

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