economic capsule for march 2011

Research & Development Unit

March 2011

Corporate Earnings Review 2010

PAYE Tax Table

Withholding Tax Rates

Financial Soundness Indicators – Licensed Commercial Banks

Branch Openings

Economic & Business News

Financial Sector NewsC

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Sri Lanka Economy Grows 8% in 2010

IMF Releases USD 218.3 Mn under the SBA Facility

Private Sector Credit Growth % (y-o-y)

Tourist Arrivals up by 15% in February, 2011

External Sector Performance - January 2011

Inflation - March 2011

Forbes World's Billionaires 2011 Fortune World's Most Admired Companies 2011

Effects of the Japanese Disaster

Analysis & Forecast

MasterCard & Maestro Promotion @ Arpico

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Financial Sector News > >



PAYE Tax Table


Corporate Earnings Review 2010 Corporate Earnings Review 2010




Branch Openings Branch Openings


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Corporate Earnings Review 2010 – TKS Securities Ltd

Corporate Earnings Sectoral Snapshot (Rs mn)

Sector 2010 2009 Change %Bank, Finance & Insurance 33,125.04 17,726.82 87%Diversified Holdings 21,760.38 12,904.66 69%Beverage, Food & Tobacco 15,389.75 11,347.77 36%Telecommunication 8,990.44 (11,423.22) 179%Manufacturing 8,138.18 8,475.06 -4%Investment trusts 4,781.91 2,369.96 102%Plantations 4,689.98 453.31 935%Hotels & Travels 4,327.08 880.21 392%Trading 3,547.25 1,358.34 161%Motors 3,403.50 (33.95) 10,126%Oil Palm 3,121.51 2,963.02 5%Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 2,750.01 1447.25 90%Power & Energy 2,604.48 (1,858.44) 240%Healthcare 2,460.20 739.21 233%Construction & Engineering 2,169.46 2,140.40 1%Land & Property 1,194.77 928.14 29%Store & Supplies 696.70 244.49 185%Services 417.57 164.19 154%IT 140.62 70.50 99%Footwear & Textiles (642.42) 473.71 -236%Total 123,066.40 51,371.43 140%Total (Excluding Dialog Axiata)* 118,018.96 63,579.65 86%

*Dialog recorded a loss of Rs. 12,208 mn in 2009Research & Development Unit

Analysing financials of 221 companies out of the total 247 listed on the Colombo bourse, TKS Securities pointed out that corporate earnings have reported a combined windfall profit of Rs. 123 bn, an exponential 140% increase over 2009.

Of the Rs. 123 bn profit, Rs. 40 bn or 32% had come in the quarter ended 31 December 2010. It reflects a hefty 83% increase in comparison to the corresponding quarter of 2009.

Banking, Finance and Insurance sector contributed about 27% to overall corporate profits whilst the Conglomerates contributed 18% and the highest net profit growth rates were witnessed amongst the Hotel, Motors and Plantation sectors.

Banking, Finance and Insurance sector earnings were up 70% YoY in 4Q, 2010 and up 87% YoY during 2010 which was broadly backed by the favourable macro economic situation and positive monetary policy adopted by the Central Bank.

During 4Q, 2010 Commercial Bank, Sampath Bank and NDB Bank led the banking sector earnings backed by loan book expansion, improving asset quality and reducing funding costs. B

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PAYE Tax Table - 2011/2012


PAYE tax applicable with effect from April 1, 2011 for making monthly income tax

deductions from the remuneration of employees is given below:

Monthly Remuneration (M.R.) Tax (Rs.)

Monthly Remuneration not exceeding Rs. 50,000/- Nil

Monthly Remuneration exceeding Rs. 50,000 but not exceeding Rs. 91,667 4% of M.R. less Rs. 2,000





Monthly Remuneration exceeding Rs. 300,000 24% of M.R. less Rs. 38,667

Source: Department of Inland Revenue

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Withholding Tax Rates w.e.f. April 1, 2011


Assessable Income Withholding Tax Rate

I. For Individual and Joint Accounts (Persons)

Below Rs. 500,000 0%

Between Rs.500,000 to Rs.1,500,000 2.5%

Above Rs.1,500,000 or for those who do not submit declarations 8.0%

II. For Charitable Institutions

Below Rs. 500,000 0%

Above Rs. 500,000 or for those who do not submit declarations 8%

III. Proprietorships, partnerships, clubs & societies etc. 8%

IV. Limited Liability Companies (No Change) 10%

Source: ICBS Department, Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC

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2007 2008 2009 Sept. 2010

Gross NPL (Net of Interest in Suspense) Ratio 5.0 6.0 9.9 6.3Net NPL Ratio 1.5 2.1 3.7 2.8Sector-wise NPL to Total Sector Loans Agriculture & Fishing 6.3 6.7 3.7 3.4 Manufacturing 8.5 8.3 11.2 10.8 Tourism 4.2 3.3 4.9 7.3 Transport 6.6 7.1 6.3 5.4 Construction 3.8 6.8 10.3 8.6 Traders 8.1 10.2 10.9 9.2 New Economy 1.1 2.4 3.9 4.2 Financial and Business Services 2.3 2.3 4.7 3.4 Infrastructure 0.2 4.1 7.3 5.7 Other Services 3.3 2.0 6.2 5.9 Other Customer 3.5 3.5 5.9 3.9Return on Equity (ROE) – After Tax 15.0 14.8 11.0 21.3Return on Assets (ROA)– Before Tax 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.7

Interest Margin 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7

Source: Financial System Stability Review 2010 - Central Bank of Sri Lanka

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Branch Openings

Weliveriya 19th MiniCom Centre

Peliyagoda Customer Service Point

Velanai Branch

Vavunia Extension Office

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Economy & Business News > >




Inflation - March 2011Forbes: World's Billionaires 2011

Fortune: World's Most Admired Companies 2011

Effects of the Japanese Disaster

Analysis & Forecast

Effects of the Japanese Disaster Tourist Arrivals up by 15% in February, 2011

Analysis & Forecast

HSBC Bullish on Lanka than Rating Firms

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The economic output of Sri Lanka as measured by GDP for the year 2010 at constant (2002) prices is estimated at Rs.2,645.4 bn as against Rs. 2,449.2 bn in 2009, registering an 8.0 % growth rate as against 3.5 % growth in the previous year. This is the second best GDP growth ever achieved since independence. The highest ever achieved GDP growth in the history of the country was 8.2 %, and it was recorded in the years of 1968 and 1978

The three major sectors of the economy namely, Agriculture, Industry, and Services registered significant growth as 7.0 %, 8.4 % and 8.0 % respectively, in 2010 over 2009. Of these, Industry and Services Sectors grew unprecedentedly making highest ever growth since 2002.

The percentage share of the three major sectors, namely the Agriculture, Industry, and Services to the total GDP constituted 11.9 %, 28.8 % and 59.3 % respectively.

The year on year (YOY) inflation as measured by Colombo Consumers’ Price Index is recorded as 5.9 % in 2010 whereas it was 3.4 % in 2009.

The index number of GDP implicit price deflator rose to 211.8 in 2010, from 197.4 in 2009 registering inflation rate as 7.3 % for the year 2010.

The GDP per-capita (“Per-capita income”- based on the GDP) at market prices is estimated at Rs.271,259 (US$ 2,399) in 2010 as against Rs.236,445(US$ 2,057) in 2009 depicting a growth of 14.7 % for the Rupee value and 16.6 % for the US$ value.

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IMF Releases USD 218.3 Mn under the SBA Facility


Received on Tranche USD Mn

July, 2009 1st 322.0

Nov, 2009 2nd 329.0

June, 2010 3rd & 4th 407.8

Sep, 2010 5th 212.5

Feb, 2011 6th 216.6

April, 2011 7th 218.3

Total funds received up to now 1,706.2

Funds to be to be received 893.2

Full Amount of the IMF SBA 2,599.4

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Private Sector Credit Growth % (y-o-y)


Year-on-year growth in credit to the private sector increased to 28.1 % in January 2011, having turned positive in March 2010. Private sector credit from commercial banks has increased by around Rs.300 bn in 2010.

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Sri Lanka's tourist arrivals rose 14.8 % to 65,797 in February, 2011 from a

year earlier. The cumulative tourist arrivals for Jan-Feb 2011 recorded

140,000 which reflects a growth of 29% over the corresponding period in

2010. The February arrivals were lower than the January peak of 74,197 as

the Western European winter season drew to a close. In 2010 tourist

arrivals rose 46 % to 654,476 from a low base in 2009. The authorities are expecting 750,000 arrivals in 2011 and have a long term plan to attract 2.5 mn visitors by 2015.

The anticipated increase in tourist arrivals will require an increase in the rooms available to about 35,000 - 40,000 from present levels.

The island has several five star hotel projects in the pipeline to be completed in the next 2-3 years with developers already having bought land from the government.

According Mr. Godahewa, Marriot and Hyatt hotel chains have already singled out land to build hotels in (southern) Hambantota as a part of the Commonwealth Games 2018 candidate city bid document to the Commonwealth Games Federation.

According to Sri Lanka Tourism Chairman, Mr. Nalaka Godahewa, another one thousand rooms will be added to the current tourist accommodation by the end of 2011 to cater to booming demand. End December 2010 statistics showed a total number of 14,714 rooms in the country.

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Category

January 2010

US$ mn

January 2011

US$ mn

ChangeJanuary

(%)

Exports 471.7 813.4 72.4 Agricultural 142.5 183.7 28.9 of which, tea 90.9 116.6 28.3 Industrial 319.9 615.8 92.5 of which, textiles and garments 173.7 385.4 121.9 Mineral 9.3 13.9 49.8Imports 1,237.7 1,501.1 21.3 Consumer Goods 233.5 316.7 35.6 of which, food and drink 160.8 182.0 13.2 of which, other consumer goods 72.7 134.7 85.3 Intermediate Goods 701.8 812.0 15.7 of which, petroleum 407.1 364.9 -10.4 of which, textile and clothing 121.5 188.5 55.2 Investment Goods 219.0 365.7 67.0 of which, machinery and equipment 83.7 146.8 75.5 of which, transport equipment 52.8 104.1 97.3 of which, building material 60.7 78.3 29.0Balance of Trade -765.9 -687.6 -10.2Workers’ Remittances 313.1 377.0 20.1

Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka

The largest contribution to the growth in exports in January was from the industrial sector, reflecting increases in all major categories of industrial exports.

Continuing the increasing trend observed since the withdrawal of the GSP+ scheme in August 2010, earnings from textile and garments exports increased by 121.9 % to USD 385 mn in January 2011, depicting a 143.5 % increase to EU and 95.8 % increase to USA.

Accordingly, the trade deficit in January 2011 narrowed by 10.2 %, year-on-year, to USD 688 mn.

Earnings from exports in January 2011 increased by 72.4 % year-on-year, to USD 813 mn led by significant increases in exports of textile and garments and rubber products.

Expenditure on imports increased by 21.3 % to USD1,501 mn in January 2011, mainly due to increases in imports of motor vehicles, electrical equipment and transport equipment.

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Inflation - March 2011


Meanwhile, Core inflation on the year-on-year basis increased to 3.6 % from 2.9 % in February 2011 while the annual average rate continued to decrease to 5.3% in March from 5.5%in the previous month.

The rate of inflation as measured by the CCPI on a Year on Year basis increased to 8.6 % in March 2011 from 7.8 % recorded in February 2011. the highest contribution to the overall increase of around 80 % came from food commodities which increase by 7 % in March 2011.

Inflation on an annual average basis recorded a slight increase to 6.2% in March 2011 from 6.1% in the previous month.

Back to ContentsWorld's Most Admired Companies 2011


World's Billionaires 2011

Rank Name

Net Worth (USD Bn) Source Age Citizenship

2011 2010 2011 2010

1 1 Carlos Slim Helu & family 74.0 53.5 Telecom 71 Mexico

2 2 Bill Gates 56.0 53.0 Microsoft 55 United States

3 3 Warren Buffett 50.0 47.0 Berkshire Hathaway 80 United States

4 7 Bernard Arnault 41.0 27.5 LVMH 62 France

5 6 Larry Ellison 39.5 28.0 Oracle 66 United States

6 5 Lakshmi Mittal 31.1 28.7 Steel 60 India

7 9 Amancio Ortega 31.0 25.0 Zara 74 Spain

8 8 Eike Batista 30.0 27.0 Mining, oil 53 Brazil

9 4 Mukesh Ambani 27.0 29.0 Petrochemicals, oil & gas 53 India

10 12 Christy Walton & family 26.5 22.5 Wal-Mart 56 United States

Back to ContentsWorld's Most Admired Companies 2011


Top 50Rank Name Industry/Category Industry

Rank Industry Top 03

1 Apple Computers 1 2 - Hewlett-Packard 3 - EMC

2 Google Internet Services and Retailing 1 2 - Amazon.com 3 - Netflix

3 Berkshire Hathaway Insurance, Property and Casualty 1 2 - Zurich Financial Services 3 - Travelers Cos.

4 Southwest Airlines Airlines 3 1 - Delta Air Lines 2 - Singapore Airlines

5 Procter & Gamble Soaps and Cosmetics 1 2 - L'Oréal 3 - Reckitt Benckiser Group

6 Coca-Cola Beverages 1 2 - Anheuser-Busch InBev 3 - Diageo

7 Amazon.com Internet Services and Retailing 2 1 - Google 3 - Netflix

8 FedEx Delivery 2 1 - UPS 3 - Deutsche Post (DHL)

9 Microsoft Computer Software 3 1 - Adobe Systems 2 - Oracle

10 McDonald's Food Services 1 2 - Yum Brands 3 - Starbucks

Effects of the Japanese Disaster Back to Contents


Japan quake costliest everThe Japanese government estimates material damage from a deadly earthquake and tsunami that struck the country's northeast this month at USD 300 bn making it the costliest ever natural disaster.

The first official estimate since the March 11 disaster covers damage to roads, homes, factories and infrastructure, and dwarfs losses from both the 1995 Kobe quake and Hurricane Katrina that swept through New Orleans in 2005, making it the world's costliest natural disaster.

The estimate, the government's first, does not include losses in economic activity from planned power outages or the crisis at a stricken nuclear power plant in Fukushima, where work crews are still struggling to prevent further radiation leaks.

While economists expect Japan's biggest reconstruction push since the post-World War Two period to give the hard-hit economy a badly needed lift in the second half of the year, they warn that power shortages are the greatest risk to such a scenario.

The 9.0 magnitude quake that struck on March 11 unleashed a deadly tsunami that wiped out whole communities, leaving nearly 22,000 dead or missing and 350,000 homeless, and crippling the biggest power plant in Japan and Asia.

BLACKOUTS RISKTokyo Electric Power Co, which serves Tokyo and the surrounding area that accounts for 40% of Japan's economic output, lost about 20% of its operating thermal and nuclear power generation and is unlikely to get enough back online to meet peak summer demand.

BANK OF JAPAN'S RESPONSEIn initial response to the disaster, the Bank of Japan started pumping trillions of yen into the money market to prevent it from seizing up. The injections brought deposits held with it by lenders to a record high above 40 trillion yen and well above a previous peak reached in 2004 when the central bank pursued a policy of deliberately flooding the financial system with cash known as quantitative easing.

YEN IN CHECKThe Japanese authorities also teamed up with their G7 partners in a rare joint intervention in currency markets, selling the yen after it spiked to a record high of 76.25 to the dollar, threatening to further hobble the export-reliant economy

Many analysts point out, however, that it is hard to estimate the ripple effects of disruption to production, both inside Japan and abroad, caused by power shortages as well as the impact of the nuclear accident and food contamination fears on business and consumer sentiment worldwide.

One of the threats to the global economy is a rise in prices of oil, driven both by the air campaign in Libya and countries reconsidering their nuclear power plans in the aftermath of the accident in Japan. There are also concerns as to what extent the crisis in Japan will affect its overseas investments.

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Effects of the Japanese Disaster (cont…) Quake, tsunami could cost Japan USD 235 bn : World BankAccording to the World Bank, the massive quake and tsunami of March 11 could cost Japan's economy up to USD 235 bn, or 4.0 % of output, but reconstruction will spur recovery later this year.

If history is any guide, real GDP growth will be negatively affected through mid-2011. But growth should pick up in subsequent quarters, as reconstruction efforts, which could last five years, accelerate.

In the immediate future, the biggest impact will be in terms of trade and finance

Japan quake impact on auto makers, electronics firmsPlant shutdowns of Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, Fuji Heavy Industries ,Renault Samsung, General Motors , Sony, Toshiba, Canon, Nikon, Panasonic & Renesas in Japan threaten supplies to manufacturers across the globe of items from semiconductors to car parts.

Japanese companies are not only reeling from damage to factories and suppliers in quake-hit northeastern Japan, but are also suffering from fuel shortages nationwide and power outages in the Tokyo area that are affecting production, distribution and the ability of staff to get to work.

Which economies are most exposed to a slowdown in Japan? Brunei's exports to the country account for over 28% of its GDP. But like those of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, Brunei's exports comprise oil and natural gas, which will eventually benefit from the damage to Japan's nuclear industry. Malaysia's timber exports may also enjoy a boost from reconstruction. More exposed are Singapore and Thailand. In addition to their sizeable exports to Japan, they rely on imports of its components for the smooth running of their manufacturing industries

Source: The Economist

Back to ContentsHSBC Bullish on Lanka than Rating Firms


HSBC has upgraded its own rating on Sri Lanka’s 2011 sovereign credit from B+ positive to BB-/Stable, which is above those given by major rating agencies. HSBC has backed its upgrade over Sri Lanka’s improving external profile. It also noted that structural reforms by Sri Lanka should sustain faster economic growth.

HSBC Global Research - Asia’s Bond Markets

The growth is estimated to accelerate in 2010 Sri Lankan government’s focus had been squarely on bolstering economic growth in 2010 by stimulating private sector investments and rebuilding war-ravaged public sector infrastructure. As a result, HSBC estimates real GDP growth in 2010 to double to 7% from an anaemic 3.5% a year earlier.

The growth momentum to continue in 2011The growth momentum is expected to continue in 2011 supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. Improved labour market conditions and tax cuts announced in the 2011 budget are likely to boost personal consumption.

Investment activity will continue to gain momentum as rebuilding efforts pick up pace and as mega infrastructure projects in the pipeline are implemented. Exports may consolidate a bit, partly due to the loss of GSP+ with the EU and the strengthening of the currency. However, this could be partly offset by continued growth in tourism.

Bottom line, the peace dividend from the end of the war is expected to deliver strong growth in excess of 7% in 2012. However, there are a number of risks on the horizon. Inflation could rise more than anticipated.

Current account deficit to widen The current account deficit is expected to widen in response to the strong growth in domestic demand, partly in response to tax cuts for consumer durables implemented mid-2010.

However, strong remittance flows will provide some cushion.

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Back to ContentsHSBC Bullish on Lanka than Rating Firms


HSBC Global Research - Asia’s Bond Markets

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Inflationary pressures to pick up Inflation has been increasing, primarily in response to rising food prices. However, with the economy rebounding as quickly as it has, there is a

risk that broader demand-led prices could build. The slack in world output, a stronger currency and improved agricultural supply from the war affected areas in the North will help slow inflation.

However, the domestically generated demand pressures are expected to become more prominent in 2012 and could push inflation above the comfort zone. The Central Bank will, therefore, have to step in and HSBC expects that it will begin to tighten monetary policy, no later than the second half of 2011.

Budget Deficit to narrow down On the expenditure side, HSBC believes the IMF has influenced the government to slow recurrent expenditure while holding public sector

investment steady as a share of GDP. These budgetary steps should persuade Fitch to upgrade Sri Lanka by one notch in 2H11.

Reaganomics On the fiscal side, the Sri Lankan government’s consolidation efforts are at risk. The 2011 budget is relying on raising revenues through a growth

windfall from cutting taxes and simplifying the tax structure. According to the government’s estimates, the improvement in economic activity due to lower taxes is expected to raise tax buoyancy and help lower the budget deficit to 6.8% of GDP in 2011 from 8% expected in 2010.

Before taking this route, the government should have taken a more cautious approach to fiscal consolidation through further efforts to broaden the narrow tax base.

On the expenditure side, there is not much help either. Expenditure is budgeted to grow 11% y-o-y, partly because of an increase in public sector employment and a 5% salary hike for public sector employees. This is only partly countered by spending restraint for subsidies and a budgeted decline in interest payments.

Moreover, the fiscal consolidation strategy faces risks related to a tax strategy, which may not pay off. If these risks materialize, it will raise concerns about macroeconomic stability and could hurt growth prospects.

*Discounts are not applicable for purchase of gift vouchers.

During the campaign, every 10 days a lucky couple shall win a free trip to Malaysia for 4 days & 3 nights(free trip includes fully paid air travel & accommodation, Bed &Breakfast)

The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC

The information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain accuracy/completeness of the information, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise, suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose.

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economic capsule for march 2011

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