Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 1Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office

Economic and Revenue Update

Seattle City CouncilApril 22, 2020

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 2Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office

The information in this presentation is a forecast and “forward-looking statement.” No assurance can be given that the forecast results described will be realized, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. This information is prepared primarily to provide information to City elected officials and staff. It has not been prepared with a view to, nor is it suitable for, any investment decision regarding any bonds or financial obligations of the City or any of its instrumentalities. The financial data and other information provided herein is not warranted as to completeness or accuracy for purposes of federal securities laws and regulations. This forecast information speaks only as of the date it was prepared and is subject to change without notice. Any person interested in the bonds or financial obligations of the City should carefully review any information posted by the City at emma.msrb.org.

http://emma.msrb.org/

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 3Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 31

U.S. Economic Forecast from IHS Markit • Assumes that the spread of coronavirus in U.S. peaks in 2020 Q2, allowing a gradual lifting of

restrictions on social gathering starting in 2020 Q3• Scenarios: baseline (45% probability), pessimistic (35% probability), optimistic (20% probability)• All three scenarios predict a recession that will be short (2020 Q1 - 2020 Q3 in the baseline and

pessimistic scenarios, 2020 Q1 - 2020 Q2 in the optimistic scenario) but quite deep• Baseline scenario: consumer spending drops by 5.5% in 2020, real GDP by 5.4%, employment by

14 mil., unemployment peaks at 10.3% in 2020 Q4• Pessimistic scenario: consumer spending drops by 17.1% in 2020, real GDP by 14.9%,

employment by 34 mil., unemployment rate peaks at 22.2% in 2020 Q3• All three scenarios incorporate the $2.3 trillion CARES Act, near zero federal funds rate

maintained through 2025, plus new round of Quantitative Easing (net purchases of Treasury debt)

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 4Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 41

Regional Economic Forecast for Seattle Metropolitan District (MD)• Econometric model for Seattle MD (King and Snohomish Counties)• Inputs

• U.S. economic forecast from IHS (GDP, income, employment, unemployment rate, CPI, and other variables)

• regional data is also used (GDP and income from BEA, employment from ESD, permit data from SDCI, and other variables)

• Output• regional economic forecast for 2020-2029 (GDP, personal income, employment by industry,

unemployment rate, CPI, housing permits)• Our regional forecast is used as input into our revenue forecasts for the large economically driven

revenues (e.g., sales tax, B&O tax, REET and others)• April 2020 forecast scenarios

• rapid recovery based on IHS baseline scenario• slow recovery based on IHS pessimistic scenario

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 5Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 51

Regional Economic Forecast for Seattle MDSignificant downside risk for 2020

Rapid Recovery Scenario• 45% probability• About 65,000 jobs lost• 8% unemployment rate by year end• Income per capita 5.5% lower by year

endSlow Recovery Scenario• 35% probability• About 170,000 jobs lost• 18% unemployment rate by year end• Income per capita 12.5% lower

by year end

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 6Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 61

Uncertainty Prevails -Only Just Beginning to See Revenue Receipts from Crisis Period

Availability of Revenue Information

% of General Fund

Tax PeriodInformation Lag

(weeks from end of tax period)

Property Taxes 23% Bi-Annual 2

B&O Tax 20% Quarterly 7Sales Tax 20% Monthly 7

Utilities Taxes 15% Monthly 6

REET NA Monthly 1

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 7Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 71

Sales Tax Revenue Composition in 2019• 133.7 mil. so about half of sales tax revenue

(about 10% of General Fund revenue) was generated by sectors at high risk (wholesale and retail trade, food, accommodation and recreation services)

• construction which accounted for additional quarter of sales tax revenue (5% of General Fund) is likely to see large decline as well

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 8Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 81

B&O Tax Revenue Composition in 2019• B&O tax revenue sources are more

diversified across industries• in 2019 wholesale and retail trade,

and food, accommodation and recreation services brought in 66.1 mil. so about 4.5% of General Fund revenue

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 9Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 91

General Fund Revenue Scenarios

1.40

1.46

1.51

1.30

1.34

1.46

1.221.24

1.39

$1.20

$1.25

$1.30

$1.35

$1.40

$1.45

$1.50

$1.55

2019 2020 2021 2022

Billi

ons

2020 Adopted Rapid Recovery Slow Recovery

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 10Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 101

General Fund Revenue – Slow Recovery

Slow Growth Scenario ($1,000s) 2019

Actuals 2020

Adopted 2020

Revised 2020

Change 2021 April 2022 April

Property Taxes 320,736 345,085 340,888 (4,197) 353,291 365,600 Sales Taxes 291,961 298,842 233,423 (65,420) 224,522 276,851 Business & Occupation Taxes & Licenses 320,503 315,537 257,531 (58,007) 246,406 303,489 Utility Taxes 212,610 220,557 207,286 (13,270) 216,037 226,703 Court Fines/Parking 67,621 65,705 31,459 (34,246) 52,128 64,217 All Else 192,079 156,775 145,567 (11,208) 147,227 150,876 General Fund Total 1,405,509 1,402,501 1,216,154 (186,347) 1,239,610 1,387,736 Growth Rate Year/Year -13% 2% 12%Seatle Center 21,666 22,033 12,881 (9,152) 13,129 14,698 Parks & Recreation 30,153 33,474 10,474 (23,000) 10,676 11,952

2020 Totals do not include Mercer Megablock proceeds

Categories Roll-upwoADSTRSBT

4367911

2019202020212022

GSF - ItemRevisedActualsChangeAdoptedRevisedChangeAprilApril

Property Taxes

Property Tax268,207,000268,168,420(38,580)277,984,916277,001,000(983,916)288,976,000300,742,000

Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,495,00052,568,03773,03767,100,00066,699,000(401,000)67,510,00067,173,000

Sales Taxes

Retail Sales Tax267,577,937268,955,0341,377,097274,739,511245,009,502(29,730,009)246,766,810287,428,167

Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,220,44823,006,203(214,245)24,102,82520,910,594(3,192,231)21,060,57424,530,860

Business Taxes

Business & Occupation Tax (100%)288,922,899302,681,95913,759,060296,938,537273,473,029(23,465,508)274,087,405317,569,273

Public Utility Taxes

Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,445,86357,309,943(135,920)61,149,88658,162,309(2,987,577)58,615,66261,744,191

Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,500,00034,467,729(32,271)34,935,93333,493,945(1,441,988)34,751,37736,141,432

Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)50,876,26953,169,7162,293,44755,419,80857,057,8551,638,04761,611,69963,460,050

Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)20,622,00222,031,2111,409,20921,502,14921,095,731(406,418)22,705,27923,613,490

Private Utility Taxes

Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,929,26910,550,851(378,418)11,310,1569,392,230(1,917,926)9,854,72410,594,674

Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,650,0001,907,158257,1581,800,0001,500,000(300,000)1,500,0001,500,000

Tonnage Tax (100%)6,439,0426,425,782(13,260)6,634,2776,159,486(474,791)6,642,7236,782,004

Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,497,94615,203,453(294,493)14,738,67514,268,287(470,388)13,539,55012,864,864

Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)18,896,71516,663,086(2,233,629)18,419,14117,197,568(1,221,573)16,298,53015,521,295

Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,275,6271,306,53130,9041,280,8421,118,330(162,512)1,160,2201,263,455

Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,484,9891,502,01617,0271,358,1531,148,034(210,119)1,296,3431,434,209

Other Notable GSF Revenues

Business License Fees (100%)18,163,02617,820,855(342,171)18,598,93916,098,192(2,500,747)16,134,35818,693,950

Leasehold Excise Tax5,500,0006,090,794590,7945,500,0005,177,000(323,000)5,229,0005,752,000

Court Fines (100%)27,029,50029,322,8322,293,33227,126,50017,805,000(9,321,500)24,669,00026,667,000

Interest on Investments6,295,2249,378,8623,083,6386,764,9112,082,787(4,682,124)2,124,5612,110,177

Parking Meters38,611,54938,297,695(313,854)38,578,26820,285,000(18,293,268)34,959,00038,233,000

Subtotal1,215,640,3051,236,828,16621,187,8611,265,983,4281,165,134,879(100,848,549)1,209,492,8151,323,819,091

Grants4,522,43015,572,99311,050,5637,020,60311,549,4274,528,82411,549,42711,549,427

Other General Subfund Revenues111,044,105135,442,49024,398,385191,740,585184,108,891(7,631,694)123,200,068125,063,320

1,331,206,8401,387,843,64956,636,8091,464,744,6161,360,793,197(103,951,419)1,344,242,3101,460,431,838

Other Funds - Fund Balance Transfers19,934,89717,665,646(2,269,251)4,256,4003,841,400(415,000)185,000185,000

GSF - Grand Total1,351,141,7371,405,509,29554,367,5571,469,001,0161,364,634,597(104,366,419)1,344,427,3101,460,616,838

General Fund Revenues - Project Specific

Sweetened Beverage Tax23,970,00024,119,430149,43024,329,00016,876,000(7,453,000)21,515,00023,970,000

Short-term Rental Tax10,500,0006,845,016(3,654,984)10,500,0005,600,000(4,900,000)8,750,00010,500,000

Admission Tax11,584,79411,384,500(200,294)11,691,2246,003,483(5,687,741)9,481,9779,956,075

Real Estate Excise Tax82,212,624100,933,33918,720,71582,957,74248,313,005(34,644,737)61,644,57575,351,273

STBD34,392,22631,299,34927,828,628(3,470,721)56,056,45365,293,236

Commercial Parking Tax44,268,00049,231,5994,963,59945,596,00030,321,000(15,275,000)43,088,00045,596,000

School Zone Camera Fund9,817,0009,656,678(160,322)9,666,0007,440,000(2,226,000)14,219,00013,162,000

GSF - Subtotal Growth Rates (yr/yr)5.6%-5.8%3.8%9.5%

Baseline GF April 2020

Account CodeRevenue2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 AprilScenario 1 ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 April

311010Property Tax268,168277,985277,001288,976300,742Property Taxes320,736345,085343,700356,486367,915

311010Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,56867,10066,69967,51067,173Sales Taxes291,961298,842265,920267,827311,959

313010Retail Sales Tax268,955274,740245,010246,767287,428Business & Occupation Taxes & Licenses320,503315,537289,571290,222336,263

313030Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,5021,3581,1481,2961,434Utility Taxes212,610220,557213,286220,037226,703

313040Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,00624,10320,91121,06124,531Court Fines/Parking67,62165,70538,09059,62864,900

316010Business & Occupation Tax (100%)302,682296,939273,473274,087317,569All Else192,079156,775147,567150,227152,876

316020Admission Tax11,38411,6916,0039,4829,956General Fund Total1,405,5091,402,5011,298,1351,344,4271,460,617

316070Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,55111,3109,3929,85510,595

316080Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,9071,8001,5001,5001,500Other General Government Revenues

316100Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,20314,73914,26813,54012,865Admission Tax11,38411,6916,0039,4829,956

316110Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)16,66318,41917,19816,29915,521Short-term Rental Tax6,84510,5005,6008,75010,500

316120Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,3071,2811,1181,1601,263Sweetened Beverage Tax24,11924,32916,87621,51523,970

316180Tonnage Tax (100%)6,4266,6346,1596,6436,782Mercer Megablock Sale- 066,50066,500- 0- 0

317040Leasehold Excise Tax6,0915,5005,1775,2295,752Real Estate Excise Tax100,93382,95848,31361,64575,351

317060Gambling Tax427475309459475STBD34,39231,29927,82956,05665,293

317090Short-term Rental Tax6,845- 0- 0- 0- 0Commercial Parking Tax49,23245,59630,32143,08845,596

318100Sweetened Beverage Tax24,119- 0- 0- 0- 0School Zone Camera Fund9,6579,6667,44014,21913,162

335030Pleasure Boat Tax142125100125125

360900Transportation Network Company Tax- 09,6556,58213,57714,002

Total External Taxes1,017,9471,023,854952,048977,5651,077,714

316130Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,31061,15058,16258,61661,744

316140Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,46834,93633,49434,75136,141

316150Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)53,17055,42057,05861,61263,460

316160Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)22,03121,50221,09622,70523,613

Total Interfund Taxes166,979173,008169,810177,684184,959

321010Professional & Occupational Licenses (100%)7,2965,3844,1244,1244,124

321100Business License Fees (100%)17,82118,59916,09816,13418,694

321900Marijuana License Fees452548380380380

322030Fire Permits & Fees7,5717,3696,8847,0847,334

322040Street Use Permits1,2272,2601,7741,8831,933

322170Vehicle Overload Permits219260234230240

322200Other Licenses, Permits & Fees1,7091,1322,2192,2192,219

322260Meter Hood Service2,7354,5004,2004,0504,500

322900Other Non Business Licenses1,2131,3007381,2981,298

Total Licenses40,24241,35236,65237,40340,722

331110Federal Grants - Other8,8731,5595,0595,0595,059

331110Federal Grants - CDBG- 02,194830830830

333000Federal Indirect Grants - Other2,0651,0122,0402,0402,040

334010State Grants - Other4,6354,4504,4504,4504,450

Total Federal and State Grants15,5739,21412,37912,37912,379

335010Marijuana Excise Tax1,4101,5001,3501,3501,350

335060Trial Court Improvement Account152165150150150

335070Criminal Justice Assistance4,0853,7154,1004,1004,100

335140Liquor Excise Tax4,0823,7504,0004,0004,000

335150Liquor Board Profits5,9545,9505,9505,9505,950

Total State Entitlements/Impact Programs15,68215,08015,55015,55015,550

337010Interlocal Agreement452- 0- 0- 0- 0

341060Copy Charges7255525252

341180Legal Services1,6751,4341,4341,4341,434

341190Automated Fingerprint Information System (AFIS)3,8653,9263,8653,8653,865

341190Fire Special Events Services1,8721,5309531,1321,532

341190Personnel Services- 01,330- 0- 0- 0

341220Animal Shelter Licenses & Fees2,3222,5322,1292,1292,129

341220Other Service Charges - General Government2,273766770770770

341220Vehicle Towing Revenues881650444607650

342010Law Enforcement Services12,6687,2019,4949,3219,496

342050Adult Probation and Parole (100%)233300215278300

342120E-911 Reimbursements & Cellular Tax Revenue2,8223,5312,7972,7972,797

342160Emergency Alarm Fees1,743100100100100

Total External Service Charges30,87823,35622,25422,48623,126

342040Court Fines (100%)29,32327,12717,80524,66926,667

350080Municipal Court Cost Recoveries (100%)430300215278300

Total Court Fines29,75227,42718,02024,94726,967

360010Interest on Investments9,3796,7652,0832,1252,110

360130Other Interest Earnings984450375375375

360290Parking Meters38,29838,57820,28534,95938,233

360900Other Miscellaneous Revenue20,52769,30569,2943,0263,026

Total Miscellaneous Revenues69,187115,09892,03740,48443,744

341900Interfund Revenue to City Budget Office1,9891,8741,8741,7011,701

341900Interfund Revenue to HR17,65622,30422,30420,30420,304

341900Miscellaneous Interfund Revenue24,30623,87023,86923,22023,220

Total Interfund Charges43,95148,04848,04745,22545,225

341900Transfer from - Utilities for Council Oversight541600185185185

397010Transfer from - Other Fund17,1253,6563,656- 0- 0

Total Operating Transfers17,6664,2563,841185185

Total General Fund1,447,8581,480,6921,370,6381,353,9091,470,573

Downside GF April 2020

Account CodeRevenue2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 AprilSlow Growth Scenario ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2020 Change2021 April2022 April

311010Property Tax268,168277,985274,735286,927299,764Property Taxes320,736345,085340,888(4,197)353,291365,600

311010Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,56867,10066,15366,36465,836Sales Taxes291,961298,842233,423(65,420)224,522276,851

313010Retail Sales Tax268,955274,740215,068206,866255,081Business & Occupation Taxes & Licenses320,503315,537257,531(58,007)246,406303,489

313030Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,5021,3581,1481,2961,434Utility Taxes212,610220,557207,286(13,270)216,037226,703

313040Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,00624,10318,35517,65521,770Court Fines/Parking67,62165,70531,459(34,246)52,12864,217

316010Business & Occupation Tax (100%)302,682296,939241,432230,271284,795All Else192,079156,775145,567(11,208)147,227150,876

316020Admission Tax11,38411,6913,4629,0739,527General Fund Total1,405,5091,402,5011,216,154(186,347)1,239,6101,387,736

316070Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,55111,3109,3929,85510,595Growth Rate Year/Year-13%2%12%

316080Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,9071,8001,5001,5001,500Seatle Center21,66622,03312,881(9,152)13,12914,698

316100Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,20314,73914,26813,54012,865Parks & Recreation30,15333,47410,474(23,000)10,67611,952

316110Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)16,66318,41917,19816,29915,521

316120Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,3071,2811,1181,1601,263Slow Growth Scenario ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2020 Change2021 April2022 April

316180Tonnage Tax (100%)6,4266,6346,1596,6436,782Other General Government Revenues

317040Leasehold Excise Tax6,0915,5005,1775,2295,752Admission Tax11,38411,6913,462(8,230)9,0739,527

317060Gambling Tax427475309459475Short-term Rental Tax6,84510,5005,600(4,900)8,75010,500

317090Short-term Rental Tax6,845- 0- 0- 0- 0Sweetened Beverage Tax24,11924,32916,876(7,453)21,51523,970

318100Sweetened Beverage Tax24,119- 0- 0- 0- 0Mercer Megablock Sale66,50066,500- 0

335030Pleasure Boat Tax142125100125125Real Estate Excise Tax100,93382,95848,313(34,645)61,64575,351

360900Transportation Network Company Tax- 09,6554,58210,57712,002STBD34,39231,29927,829(3,471)56,05665,293

Total External Taxes1,017,9471,023,854880,156883,8391,005,088Commercial Parking Tax49,23245,59630,321(15,275)43,08845,596

School Zone Camera Fund9,6579,6667,440(2,226)14,21913,162

316130Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,31061,15054,16255,61661,744Total236,563282,539206,340(76,199)214,346243,400

316140Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,46834,93633,49434,75136,141

316150Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)53,17055,42057,05861,61263,460Grand Total1,693,8911,740,5471,445,848(294,699)1,477,7621,657,786

316160Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)22,03121,50219,09621,70523,613

Total Interfund Taxes166,979173,008163,810173,684184,959

321010Professional & Occupational Licenses (100%)7,2965,3844,1244,1244,124

321100Business License Fees (100%)17,82118,59916,09816,13418,694

321900Marijuana License Fees452548380380380

322030Fire Permits & Fees7,5717,3696,8847,0847,334

322040Street Use Permits1,2272,2601,7741,8831,933

322170Vehicle Overload Permits219260234230240

322200Other Licenses, Permits & Fees1,7091,1322,2192,2192,219

322260Meter Hood Service2,7354,5004,2004,0504,500

322900Other Non Business Licenses1,2131,3007381,2981,298

Total Licenses40,24241,35236,65237,40340,722

331110Federal Grants - Other8,8731,5595,0595,0595,059

331110Federal Grants - CDBG- 02,194830830830

333000Federal Indirect Grants - Other2,0651,0122,0402,0402,040

334010State Grants - Other4,6354,4504,4504,4504,450

Total Federal and State Grants15,5739,21412,37912,37912,379

335010Marijuana Excise Tax1,4101,5001,3501,3501,350

335060Trial Court Improvement Account152165150150150

335070Criminal Justice Assistance4,0853,7154,1004,1004,100

335140Liquor Excise Tax4,0823,7504,0004,0004,000

335150Liquor Board Profits5,9545,9505,9505,9505,950

Total State Entitlements/Impact Programs15,68215,08015,55015,55015,550

337010Interlocal Agreement452- 0- 0- 0- 0

341060Copy Charges7255525252

341180Legal Services1,6751,4341,4341,4341,434

341190Automated Fingerprint Information System (AFIS)3,8653,9263,8653,8653,865

341190Fire Special Events Services1,8721,5309531,1321,532

341190Personnel Services- 01,330- 0- 0- 0

341220Animal Shelter Licenses & Fees2,3222,5322,1292,1292,129

341220Other Service Charges - General Government2,273766770770770

341220Vehicle Towing Revenues881650444607650

342010Law Enforcement Services12,6687,2019,4949,3219,496

342050Adult Probation and Parole (100%)233300215278300

342120E-911 Reimbursements & Cellular Tax Revenue2,8223,5312,7972,7972,797

342160Emergency Alarm Fees1,743100100100100

Total External Service Charges30,87823,35622,25422,48623,126

342040Court Fines (100%)29,32327,12714,70223,06125,984

350080Municipal Court Cost Recoveries (100%)430300215278300

Total Court Fines29,75227,42714,91723,33926,284

360010Interest on Investments9,3796,7652,0832,1252,110

360130Other Interest Earnings984450375375375

360290Parking Meters38,29838,57816,75729,06738,233

360900Other Miscellaneous Revenue20,52769,30569,2943,0263,026

Total Miscellaneous Revenues69,187115,09888,50934,59343,744

341900Interfund Revenue to City Budget Office1,9891,8741,8741,7011,701

341900Interfund Revenue to HR17,65622,30422,30420,30420,304

341900Miscellaneous Interfund Revenue24,30623,87023,86923,22023,220

Total Interfund Charges43,95148,04848,04745,22545,225

341900Transfer from - Utilities for Council Oversight541600185185185

397010Transfer from - Other Fund17,1253,6563,656- 0- 0

Total Operating Transfers17,6664,2563,841185185

Total General Fund1,447,8581,480,6921,286,1151,248,6841,397,264

Chart

2020 AdoptedScenario 1Scenario 2

2019$ 1,385,611,737$ 1,405,509,295$ 1,405,509,295

2020$ 1,402,501,016$ 1,298,134,597$ 1,216,153,571

2021$ 1,458,174,579$ 1,344,427,310$ 1,239,610,357

2022$ 1,507,452,441$ 1,460,616,838$ 1,387,736,461

2020 Adopted20192020202120221385611737.2209571402501015.9566041458174578.68716531507452440.8161006Scenario 120192020202120221405509294.62999941298134596.99999981344427310.00000021460616837.6172001Scenario 220192020202120221405509294.62999941216153570.89609721239610357.36554071387736460.932267

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 11Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 111

Other Revenue - Slow Recovery

Slow Growth Scenario ($1,000s) 2019

Actuals 2020

Adopted 2020

Revised 2020

Change 2021 April 2022 April Other General Government RevenuesAdmission Tax 11,384 11,691 3,462 (8,230) 9,073 9,527 Short-term Rental Tax 6,845 10,500 5,600 (4,900) 8,750 10,500 Sweetened Beverage Tax 24,119 24,329 16,876 (7,453) 21,515 23,970 Real Estate Excise Tax 100,933 82,958 48,313 (34,645) 61,645 75,351 STBD 64,832 63,726 54,960 (8,766) TBD TBDCommercial Parking Tax 49,232 45,596 30,321 (15,275) 43,088 45,596 School Zone Camera Fund 9,657 9,666 7,440 (2,226) 14,219 13,162 Total 267,003 248,466 166,972 (81,494) 158,290 178,106

Grand Total 1,724,330 1,706,474 1,406,480 (299,994) 1,421,705 1,592,492

Categories Roll-upwoADSTRSBT

4367911

2019202020212022

GSF - ItemRevisedActualsChangeAdoptedRevisedChangeAprilApril

Property Taxes

Property Tax268,207,000268,168,420(38,580)277,984,916277,001,000(983,916)288,976,000300,742,000

Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,495,00052,568,03773,03767,100,00066,699,000(401,000)67,510,00067,173,000

Sales Taxes

Retail Sales Tax267,577,937268,955,0341,377,097274,739,511245,009,502(29,730,009)246,766,810287,428,167

Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,220,44823,006,203(214,245)24,102,82520,910,594(3,192,231)21,060,57424,530,860

Business Taxes

Business & Occupation Tax (100%)288,922,899302,681,95913,759,060296,938,537273,473,029(23,465,508)274,087,405317,569,273

Public Utility Taxes

Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,445,86357,309,943(135,920)61,149,88658,162,309(2,987,577)58,615,66261,744,191

Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,500,00034,467,729(32,271)34,935,93333,493,945(1,441,988)34,751,37736,141,432

Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)50,876,26953,169,7162,293,44755,419,80857,057,8551,638,04761,611,69963,460,050

Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)20,622,00222,031,2111,409,20921,502,14921,095,731(406,418)22,705,27923,613,490

Private Utility Taxes

Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,929,26910,550,851(378,418)11,310,1569,392,230(1,917,926)9,854,72410,594,674

Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,650,0001,907,158257,1581,800,0001,500,000(300,000)1,500,0001,500,000

Tonnage Tax (100%)6,439,0426,425,782(13,260)6,634,2776,159,486(474,791)6,642,7236,782,004

Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,497,94615,203,453(294,493)14,738,67514,268,287(470,388)13,539,55012,864,864

Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)18,896,71516,663,086(2,233,629)18,419,14117,197,568(1,221,573)16,298,53015,521,295

Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,275,6271,306,53130,9041,280,8421,118,330(162,512)1,160,2201,263,455

Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,484,9891,502,01617,0271,358,1531,148,034(210,119)1,296,3431,434,209

Other Notable GSF Revenues

Business License Fees (100%)18,163,02617,820,855(342,171)18,598,93916,098,192(2,500,747)16,134,35818,693,950

Leasehold Excise Tax5,500,0006,090,794590,7945,500,0005,177,000(323,000)5,229,0005,752,000

Court Fines (100%)27,029,50029,322,8322,293,33227,126,50017,805,000(9,321,500)24,669,00026,667,000

Interest on Investments6,295,2249,378,8623,083,6386,764,9112,082,787(4,682,124)2,124,5612,110,177

Parking Meters38,611,54938,297,695(313,854)38,578,26820,285,000(18,293,268)34,959,00038,233,000

Subtotal1,215,640,3051,236,828,16621,187,8611,265,983,4281,165,134,879(100,848,549)1,209,492,8151,323,819,091

Grants4,522,43015,572,99311,050,5637,020,60311,549,4274,528,82411,549,42711,549,427

Other General Subfund Revenues111,044,105135,442,49024,398,385191,740,585184,108,891(7,631,694)123,200,068125,063,320

1,331,206,8401,387,843,64956,636,8091,464,744,6161,360,793,197(103,951,419)1,344,242,3101,460,431,838

Other Funds - Fund Balance Transfers19,934,89717,665,646(2,269,251)4,256,4003,841,400(415,000)185,000185,000

GSF - Grand Total1,351,141,7371,405,509,29554,367,5571,469,001,0161,364,634,597(104,366,419)1,344,427,3101,460,616,838

General Fund Revenues - Project Specific

Sweetened Beverage Tax23,970,00024,119,430149,43024,329,00016,876,000(7,453,000)21,515,00023,970,000

Short-term Rental Tax10,500,0006,845,016(3,654,984)10,500,0005,600,000(4,900,000)8,750,00010,500,000

Admission Tax11,584,79411,384,500(200,294)11,691,2246,003,483(5,687,741)9,481,9779,956,075

Real Estate Excise Tax82,212,624100,933,33918,720,71582,957,74248,313,005(34,644,737)61,644,57575,351,273

STBD34,392,22631,299,34927,828,628(3,470,721)56,056,45365,293,236

Commercial Parking Tax44,268,00049,231,5994,963,59945,596,00030,321,000(15,275,000)43,088,00045,596,000

School Zone Camera Fund9,817,0009,656,678(160,322)9,666,0007,440,000(2,226,000)14,219,00013,162,000

GSF - Subtotal Growth Rates (yr/yr)5.6%-5.8%3.8%9.5%

Baseline GF April 2020

Account CodeRevenue2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 AprilScenario 1 ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 April

311010Property Tax268,168277,985277,001288,976300,742Property Taxes320,736345,085343,700(1,385)356,486367,915

311010Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,56867,10066,69967,51067,173Sales Taxes291,961298,842265,920(32,922)267,827311,959

313010Retail Sales Tax268,955274,740245,010246,767287,428Business & Occupation Taxes & Licenses320,503315,537289,571(25,966)290,222336,263

313030Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,5021,3581,1481,2961,434Utility Taxes212,610220,557213,286(7,270)220,037226,703

313040Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,00624,10320,91121,06124,531Court Fines/Parking67,62165,70538,090(27,615)59,62864,900

316010Business & Occupation Tax (100%)302,682296,939273,473274,087317,569All Else192,079156,775147,567(9,208)150,227152,876

316020Admission Tax11,38411,6916,0039,4829,956General Fund Total1,405,5091,402,5011,298,135(104,366)1,344,4271,460,617

316070Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,55111,3109,3929,85510,595

316080Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,9071,8001,5001,5001,500Other General Government Revenues

316100Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,20314,73914,26813,54012,865Admission Tax11,38411,6916,003(5,688)9,4829,956

316110Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)16,66318,41917,19816,29915,521Short-term Rental Tax6,84510,5005,600(4,900)8,75010,500

316120Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,3071,2811,1181,1601,263Sweetened Beverage Tax24,11924,32916,876(7,453)21,51523,970

316180Tonnage Tax (100%)6,4266,6346,1596,6436,782Mercer Megablock Sale- 066,50066,500- 0- 0- 0

317040Leasehold Excise Tax6,0915,5005,1775,2295,752Real Estate Excise Tax100,93382,95848,313(34,645)61,64575,351

317060Gambling Tax427475309459475STBD34,39231,29927,829(3,471)56,05665,293

317090Short-term Rental Tax6,845- 0- 0- 0- 0Commercial Parking Tax49,23245,59630,321(15,275)43,08845,596

318100Sweetened Beverage Tax24,119- 0- 0- 0- 0School Zone Camera Fund9,6579,6667,440(2,226)14,21913,162

335030Pleasure Boat Tax142125100125125

360900Transportation Network Company Tax- 09,6556,58213,57714,002

Total External Taxes1,017,9471,023,854952,048977,5651,077,714

316130Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,31061,15058,16258,61661,744

316140Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,46834,93633,49434,75136,141

316150Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)53,17055,42057,05861,61263,460

316160Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)22,03121,50221,09622,70523,613

Total Interfund Taxes166,979173,008169,810177,684184,959

321010Professional & Occupational Licenses (100%)7,2965,3844,1244,1244,124

321100Business License Fees (100%)17,82118,59916,09816,13418,694

321900Marijuana License Fees452548380380380

322030Fire Permits & Fees7,5717,3696,8847,0847,334

322040Street Use Permits1,2272,2601,7741,8831,933

322170Vehicle Overload Permits219260234230240

322200Other Licenses, Permits & Fees1,7091,1322,2192,2192,219

322260Meter Hood Service2,7354,5004,2004,0504,500

322900Other Non Business Licenses1,2131,3007381,2981,298

Total Licenses40,24241,35236,65237,40340,722

331110Federal Grants - Other8,8731,5595,0595,0595,059

331110Federal Grants - CDBG- 02,194830830830

333000Federal Indirect Grants - Other2,0651,0122,0402,0402,040

334010State Grants - Other4,6354,4504,4504,4504,450

Total Federal and State Grants15,5739,21412,37912,37912,379

335010Marijuana Excise Tax1,4101,5001,3501,3501,350

335060Trial Court Improvement Account152165150150150

335070Criminal Justice Assistance4,0853,7154,1004,1004,100

335140Liquor Excise Tax4,0823,7504,0004,0004,000

335150Liquor Board Profits5,9545,9505,9505,9505,950

Total State Entitlements/Impact Programs15,68215,08015,55015,55015,550

337010Interlocal Agreement452- 0- 0- 0- 0

341060Copy Charges7255525252

341180Legal Services1,6751,4341,4341,4341,434

341190Automated Fingerprint Information System (AFIS)3,8653,9263,8653,8653,865

341190Fire Special Events Services1,8721,5309531,1321,532

341190Personnel Services- 01,330- 0- 0- 0

341220Animal Shelter Licenses & Fees2,3222,5322,1292,1292,129

341220Other Service Charges - General Government2,273766770770770

341220Vehicle Towing Revenues881650444607650

342010Law Enforcement Services12,6687,2019,4949,3219,496

342050Adult Probation and Parole (100%)233300215278300

342120E-911 Reimbursements & Cellular Tax Revenue2,8223,5312,7972,7972,797

342160Emergency Alarm Fees1,743100100100100

Total External Service Charges30,87823,35622,25422,48623,126

342040Court Fines (100%)29,32327,12717,80524,66926,667

350080Municipal Court Cost Recoveries (100%)430300215278300

Total Court Fines29,75227,42718,02024,94726,967

360010Interest on Investments9,3796,7652,0832,1252,110

360130Other Interest Earnings984450375375375

360290Parking Meters38,29838,57820,28534,95938,233

360900Other Miscellaneous Revenue20,52769,30569,2943,0263,026

Total Miscellaneous Revenues69,187115,09892,03740,48443,744

341900Interfund Revenue to City Budget Office1,9891,8741,8741,7011,701

341900Interfund Revenue to HR17,65622,30422,30420,30420,304

341900Miscellaneous Interfund Revenue24,30623,87023,86923,22023,220

Total Interfund Charges43,95148,04848,04745,22545,225

341900Transfer from - Utilities for Council Oversight541600185185185

397010Transfer from - Other Fund17,1253,6563,656- 0- 0

Total Operating Transfers17,6664,2563,841185185

Total General Fund1,447,8581,480,6921,370,6381,353,9091,470,573

Downside GF April 2020

Account CodeRevenue2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2021 April2022 AprilSlow Growth Scenario ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2020 Change2021 April2022 April

311010Property Tax268,168277,985274,735286,927299,764Property Taxes320,736345,085340,888(4,197)353,291365,600

311010Property Tax-Medic One Levy52,56867,10066,15366,36465,836Sales Taxes291,961298,842233,423(65,420)224,522276,851

313010Retail Sales Tax268,955274,740215,068206,866255,081Business & Occupation Taxes & Licenses320,503315,537257,531(58,007)246,406303,489

313030Use Tax - Brokered Natural Gas1,5021,3581,1481,2961,434Utility Taxes212,610220,557207,286(13,270)216,037226,703

313040Retail Sales Tax - Criminal Justice23,00624,10318,35517,65521,770Court Fines/Parking67,62165,70531,459(34,246)52,12864,217

316010Business & Occupation Tax (100%)302,682296,939241,432230,271284,795All Else192,079156,775145,567(11,208)147,227150,876

316020Admission Tax11,38411,6913,4629,0739,527General Fund Total1,405,5091,402,5011,216,154(186,347)1,239,6101,387,736

316070Utilities Business Tax - Natural Gas (100%)10,55111,3109,3929,85510,595Growth Rate Year/Year-13%2%12%

316080Utilities Business Tax - Solid Waste (100%)1,9071,8001,5001,5001,500Seatle Center21,66622,03312,881(9,152)13,12914,698

316100Utilities Business Tax - Cable Television (100%)15,20314,73914,26813,54012,865Parks & Recreation30,15333,47410,474(23,000)10,67611,952

316110Utilities Business Tax - Telephone (100%)16,66318,41917,19816,29915,521

316120Utilities Business Tax - Steam (100%)1,3071,2811,1181,1601,263Slow Growth Scenario ($1,000s)2019 Actuals2020 Adopted2020 Revised2020 Change2021 April2022 April

316180Tonnage Tax (100%)6,4266,6346,1596,6436,782Other General Government Revenues

317040Leasehold Excise Tax6,0915,5005,1775,2295,752Admission Tax11,38411,6913,462(8,230)9,0739,527

317060Gambling Tax427475309459475Short-term Rental Tax6,84510,5005,600(4,900)8,75010,500

317090Short-term Rental Tax6,845- 0- 0- 0- 0Sweetened Beverage Tax24,11924,32916,876(7,453)21,51523,970

318100Sweetened Beverage Tax24,119- 0- 0- 0- 0Real Estate Excise Tax100,93382,95848,313(34,645)61,64575,351

335030Pleasure Boat Tax142125100125125STBD64,83263,72654,960(8,766)TBDTBD

360900Transportation Network Company Tax- 09,6554,58210,57712,002Commercial Parking Tax49,23245,59630,321(15,275)43,08845,596

Total External Taxes1,017,9471,023,854880,156883,8391,005,088School Zone Camera Fund9,6579,6667,440(2,226)14,21913,162

Total267,003248,466166,972(81,494)158,290178,106

316130Utilities Business Tax - City Light (100%)57,31061,15054,16255,61661,744

316140Utilities Business Tax - City Water (100%)34,46834,93633,49434,75136,141Grand Total1,724,3301,706,4741,406,480(299,994)1,421,7051,592,492

316150Utilities Business Tax - Drainage/Waste Water (100%)53,17055,42057,05861,61263,460

316160Utilities Business Tax - City SWU (100%)22,03121,50219,09621,70523,613

Total Interfund Taxes166,979173,008163,810173,684184,959

321010Professional & Occupational Licenses (100%)7,2965,3844,1244,1244,124

321100Business License Fees (100%)17,82118,59916,09816,13418,694

321900Marijuana License Fees452548380380380

322030Fire Permits & Fees7,5717,3696,8847,0847,334

322040Street Use Permits1,2272,2601,7741,8831,933

322170Vehicle Overload Permits219260234230240

322200Other Licenses, Permits & Fees1,7091,1322,2192,2192,219

322260Meter Hood Service2,7354,5004,2004,0504,500

322900Other Non Business Licenses1,2131,3007381,2981,298

Total Licenses40,24241,35236,65237,40340,722

331110Federal Grants - Other8,8731,5595,0595,0595,059

331110Federal Grants - CDBG- 02,194830830830

333000Federal Indirect Grants - Other2,0651,0122,0402,0402,040

334010State Grants - Other4,6354,4504,4504,4504,450

Total Federal and State Grants15,5739,21412,37912,37912,379

335010Marijuana Excise Tax1,4101,5001,3501,3501,350

335060Trial Court Improvement Account152165150150150

335070Criminal Justice Assistance4,0853,7154,1004,1004,100

335140Liquor Excise Tax4,0823,7504,0004,0004,000

335150Liquor Board Profits5,9545,9505,9505,9505,950

Total State Entitlements/Impact Programs15,68215,08015,55015,55015,550

337010Interlocal Agreement452- 0- 0- 0- 0

341060Copy Charges7255525252

341180Legal Services1,6751,4341,4341,4341,434

341190Automated Fingerprint Information System (AFIS)3,8653,9263,8653,8653,865

341190Fire Special Events Services1,8721,5309531,1321,532

341190Personnel Services- 01,330- 0- 0- 0

341220Animal Shelter Licenses & Fees2,3222,5322,1292,1292,129

341220Other Service Charges - General Government2,273766770770770

341220Vehicle Towing Revenues881650444607650

342010Law Enforcement Services12,6687,2019,4949,3219,496

342050Adult Probation and Parole (100%)233300215278300

342120E-911 Reimbursements & Cellular Tax Revenue2,8223,5312,7972,7972,797

342160Emergency Alarm Fees1,743100100100100

Total External Service Charges30,87823,35622,25422,48623,126

342040Court Fines (100%)29,32327,12714,70223,06125,984

350080Municipal Court Cost Recoveries (100%)430300215278300

Total Court Fines29,75227,42714,91723,33926,284

360010Interest on Investments9,3796,7652,0832,1252,110

360130Other Interest Earnings984450375375375

360290Parking Meters38,29838,57816,75729,06738,233

360900Other Miscellaneous Revenue20,52769,30569,2943,0263,026

Total Miscellaneous Revenues69,187115,09888,50934,59343,744

341900Interfund Revenue to City Budget Office1,9891,8741,8741,7011,701

341900Interfund Revenue to HR17,65622,30422,30420,30420,304

341900Miscellaneous Interfund Revenue24,30623,87023,86923,22023,220

Total Interfund Charges43,95148,04848,04745,22545,225

341900Transfer from - Utilities for Council Oversight541600185185185

397010Transfer from - Other Fund17,1253,6563,656- 0- 0

Total Operating Transfers17,6664,2563,841185185

Total General Fund1,447,8581,480,6921,286,1151,248,6841,397,264

Chart

2020 AdoptedRapid GrowthSlow Growth

2019$ 1,385,611,737$ 1,405,509,295$ 1,405,509,295

2020$ 1,402,501,016$ 1,298,134,597$ 1,216,153,571

2021$ 1,458,174,579$ 1,344,427,310$ 1,239,610,357

2022$ 1,507,452,441$ 1,460,616,838$ 1,387,736,461

2020 Adopted20192020202120221385611737.2209571402501015.9566041458174578.68716531507452440.8161006Rapid Growth20192020202120221405509294.62999941298134596.99999981344427310.00000021460616837.6172001Slow Growth20192020202120221405509294.62999941216153570.89609721239610357.36554071387736460.932267

Date (xx/xx/xxxx) Department Name Page Number 12Date (4/22/2020) City Budget Office 121

Resources for Balancing• Rainy Day Fund (Revenue Stabilization Account) ($60.8 m)• Emergency Fund ($66.9 m)• Unanticipated 2019 Year-end General Fund Balance ($18.6 m)• Reduce 2020 spending• Other Fund Balances / One-time Resources• Levy Funds – pursue flexibility allowed under authorizing

legislation• Federal and State COVID-19 response and mitigation funding

Economic and Revenue Update �Slide Number 2U.S. Economic Forecast from IHS Markit Regional Economic Forecast for Seattle Metropolitan District (MD)Regional Economic Forecast for Seattle MDUncertainty Prevails - �Only Just Beginning to See Revenue Receipts from Crisis PeriodSales Tax Revenue Composition in 2019B&O Tax Revenue Composition in 2019General Fund Revenue ScenariosGeneral Fund Revenue – Slow RecoveryOther Revenue - Slow RecoveryResources for Balancing