Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

Monetary Policy Group April 2019

Economic and Monetary Conditions March 2019

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

Content 1 Executive Summary 1

2 The Thai Economy 3

2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector

Real Estate Sector

2.2 Domestic Demand 6 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position 2.3 The global economy and external sector 8 The global economy

External sector Balance of payments

2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 10 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates 2.5 Financial stability 12 Inflation Labor market External stability

3 Link to related statistics and contents 13

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

1

1. Executive Summary

In March 2019, the Thai economy moderated from the previous month. External demand contracted from both the value of merchandise exports and the number of foreign tourist arrivals. On the domestic front, private consumption indicators expanded at a slower pace as spending on non-durable goods contracted, while spending on other categories continued to expand. Public spending slightly contracted after having accelerated disbursement of current expenditures in earlier periods. Private investment indicators contracted from both investment in construction and in machinery and equipment.

On the stability front, headline inflation accelerated due to the increase in retail petroleum prices, in line with the rise in global crude oil prices, and increase in fresh food prices. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained the same from the previous month. The current account continued to register a high surplus. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit.

Details of the economic conditions are as follows:

The value of merchandise exports contracted by 4.2 percent, and excluding gold, the value declined to a similar rate of 4.3 percent. The contraction can be attributed to weaker global demand as a result of slower economic growth in a number of major trading economies, coupled with the protectionist trade policies between the US and China, the continued downturn in electronic cycle and high base effect from the same period last year for some products. The contraction was mainly from the decrease in exports of electronic products, petroleum-related products which contracted from both prices and export volume, and electrical appliances. However, exports in some categories continued to expand such as automotive and parts, agro-manufacturing products and synthetic rubber products. In addition, exports of agricultural products rebounded particularly from the export of fruits and rubber, which expanded for first time in 16 months due mainly to the low base effect and some improvement in Chinese demand.

The number of foreign tourist arrivals contracted marginally at 0.7 percent compared to the same period last year. This was mainly from the decline in the number of European tourists as a result of the shift in the Easter holidays which started at mid-April, thus led to the slowdown in travel in March. Moreover, the number of Chinese tourists contracted from the high base effect last year, which recovered after the government’s regulation on illegal tour operators. However, the number of tourists from other major nationalities continued to expand, including Indian, Malaysian and Japanese tourists. After seasonal adjustment, the number of foreign tourists increased from the previous month, mainly from Chinese tourists.

Private consumption indicators expanded at a slower pace from the same period last year as spending on non-durable goods contracted from lower fuel usage due mainly to high base effect from the previous year, coupled with the increase in retail petroleum prices, in line with the rise in global crude oil prices, while other spending categories continued to expand. The fundamental factors supporting the overall purchasing power remained unchanged. Although non-farm income continued to improve, farm income contracted from both agricultural prices and production. In addition, the consumer confidence index declined for the first time in 3 months. The slowdown in private consumption coupled with the contraction in the value of merchandise exports contributed to the decline in manufacturing production.

Public spending, excluding transfers, slightly contracted from current expenditures, particularly expenditure on civil servants’ compensation which contracted due to the overlap in disbursement period to earlier this year. However, expenditures on goods and services continued to expand. Capital expenditures

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

2

expanded mainly from higher disbursement of the Department of Highways, the Royal Irrigation Department and the Royal Thai Police.

Private investment indicators contracted from the same period last year. Investment in construction contracted from the continual decline in permitted construction area, except for permitted construction area for manufacturing purposes, and the decline of construction material sales after having accelerated in earlier periods, in line with decline in the supply of new real estate for sale. Investment in machinery and equipment contracted particularly from domestic machinery sales. However, import of capital goods rebounded in most categories.

The value of merchandise imports contracted at 5.8 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, the value of merchandise imports contracted marginally at 0.4 percent, from most major categories. The contraction was on the back of imports of raw and intermediate goods, particularly electronic parts, in line with the continued contraction in exports of such products, and consumer goods, particularly non-durable goods especially fish and other meat. However, imports of capital goods excluding aircrafts, ships, floating structures, and locomotive, expanded from most categories, particularly mobile phones and other machinery used in manufacturing. In addition, imports of automotive and parts expanded, consistent with the continued expansion of the domestic car sales.

On the stability front, headline inflation accelerated to 1.24 percent from 0.73 percent last month, due mainly to the increase in retail petroleum prices, coupled with the increase in fresh food prices. Core inflation decelerated from last month due mainly to the decrease in house rent and apparel prices. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged from last month. The current account continued to register a high surplus. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from both the assets and liabilities positions.

Overall economic activity in the first quarter of 2019 moderated from the previous quarter. The value of merchandise exports contracted in most categories due mainly to softened external demand, which also contributed to the decline in manufacturing production. The tourism sector grew at a slower pace, partly from the high base effect last year, particularly from Chinese tourists. However, domestic demand continued to expand. Private consumption indicators expanded in all spending categories and public spending expanded from current expenditures. However, private investment indicators slightly contracted. On the stability front, headline inflation decelerated from the previous quarter, following the decelerated core inflation and contraction in retail petroleum prices. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate slightly decreased from last quarter. The current account continued to post a higher surplus from both trade balance and services, income, and transfers balance, while the capital and financial account registered a deficit, particularly from the assets position.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

3

2.1 Supply

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Export < 30%30% < Export < 60%Export > 60%

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

%MoM sa

Source: Office of Industrial Economics, calculated by Bank of Thailand

1.8%

-1.9%

-0.5%

Nominal Farm Income

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers.Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOTP = Preliminary data

(%YoY) 20182018 2019

H1 H2 Q3 Q Q1 Feb Mar

Nominal farm incomeP -0.1

Agricultural productionP 5.8

Agricultural price -5.6 -8.9 -2.1 -3.0 -1.1 -0.7

Real Farm Income

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT

60708090

100110120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Real farm income saReal farm income sa, 3mma

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Source: Office of Industrial Economics

(%YoY)Share 016R 2018

2018 2019

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1P Feb MarP MarP

(Cont)

MarP

(%MoM)

Food & Beverages 19.9 Automotives - Passenger Cars - Commercial Vehicles - Engine

Petroleum Chemicals 9.2 Rubbers & Plastics Cement & Construction IC & Semiconductors Electrical Appliances Textiles & Apparels Hard Disk Drive 3.4

Others 16.7

MPI -MPI sa %∆ from last period 0.2

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data

Farm income contracted from the same period last year, following the contraction in both agricultural prices and production. The overall manufacturing production contracted due mainly to the production of hard disk drive. The overall services sector continued to expand from the same period last year.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

4

Other Manufacturing Indicators

%MoM sa

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Electricity used in industry

Import quantity of raw materials

Index of hours worked in manufacturing (3mma)

-0.4%-0.6%-2.1%

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 24.8%)Market Services (share 75.2%)

Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports

60

80

100

120

140

160

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Trade SectorTransportation SectorBusiness ServicesCommunication Sector (RHS)Thai Visitors (RHS)

Sales from VAT Collection and Other IndicatorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Note: Sales from VAT collection in trade, transportation, business services, and communication sectors, latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand. Share in 2017 GDP : Trade (15.2%), Transportation and Communication (10.3%), Real Estate and Business Services (8.2%) Source: The Tourism Authority of Thailand and The Revenue Department

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Capacity Utilization (sa)

(%) Weight 016R

2018 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1p Feb Marp

Food & Beverages

Automotives

Petroleum

Chemicals

Rubbers & Plastics

Cement & Construction

IC & Semiconductors

Electrical Appliances

Textiles & Apparels

Hard Disk Drive

Others

CAPU sa

Source: Office of Industrial Economics

Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

5

Housing Price index

142156

180176

100

120

140

160

180

200

2012 Q1

2013 Q1

2014 Q1

2015 Q1

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

2018 Q1

2019 Q1

Single house TownhouseCondominium Land

Source Mortgage loan reported by commercial banks, calculated by BOT

Index (Jan2009 = 100)Q1/2019

New Mortgage Loans from Commercial Banks in Bangkok and Vicinity Area*

13 10

23

-

5

10

15

20

25

2012 Q1

2013 Q1

2014 Q1

2015 Q1

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

2018 Q1

2019 Q1

Low-rise residents Condominium Total

* seasonally adjusted by BOTSource: Bank of Thailand

Q1/2019Thousand units,sa

Newly Launched Propertiesin Bangkok and Vicinity Area

8

19 27

05

1015202530354045

2012 Q1

2013 Q1

2014 Q1

2015 Q1

2016 Q1

2017 Q1

2018 Q1

2019Q1

Low-rise residents Condominium Total

Source Agency for Real Estate Affairs AREA and calculated by BOT

Thousand units,sa

Q1/2019

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

6

2.2 Domestic Demand

Private consumption indicators expanded at a softer pace from the same period last year mainly due to a decline in spending on non-durable goods, while spending in other categories continued to expand. Private investment indicators contracted from the same period last year due to contraction of both investment in construction and investment in machinery and equipment. Public spending excluding transfers contracted from current expenditures mainly from accelerated disbursement in the previous period, while capital expenditures expanded.

% YoY 20182 2

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1P Feb MarP MarP

(%MoM)

Non-durable Index . . . . 2. . 2. . .

Semi-durable Index 2. 2. . 2. . .2 . . .

Durable Index . . . . . . .2 . .

Service Index .2 . . . 2.2 . E . . E . E

(less) Net tourist spending . . . . . .2 . . .2

Private Consumption Index . . .2 . . . . 2. .2

Private Consumption Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary Data, E = Estimated Data, R = Revised Data

Source: Bank of Thailand

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Durable Index and Semi-durable IndexIndex sa, 3mma(Jan 2014 = 100)

Durable Index

Semi-durable Index

Source: Bank of Thailand

90100110120130140150160

9095

100105110115120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Nielsen’s FMCG Index excl. Alcohol and Tobacco

Fuel IndexP (RHS)

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index

P = Preliminary DataSource: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

708090

100110120130140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)

Service Index

Net Tourist Spending Index** (RHS

Note: * Combination of 1) hotel and restaurant VAT and 2) transportation sales** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

TotalCurrentNext 6 months

Consumer Confidence Index Diffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Average 5 years = 76.2

Mar 19

% YoY 20182018 2019

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1P Feb MarP MarP

(%MoM)

Permitted Construction Area (9mma)

. 0.7 -7.3 -4.3 -10.3 -12.8 -12.2 -13.4E 2.0E

Construction Materials Index . 1.4 7.7 7.9 7.6 0.8 0.0 -1.8 .

Real Imports of Capital Goods . 5.2 2.3 0.0 4.5 2.5 -5.5 8.4 .

Real Domestic Machinery Sales

. 6.5 5.4 8.4 2.6 -3.0 -2.4 -5.9E -0.7E

Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment

. 4.9 6.6 6.3 6.9 6.6 2.7 -3.8 .

Private Investment Index . . 2. . 2. -1.3 2. 2. .

Private Investment Indicators

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data.P = Preliminary DataE = Estimated Data

Source : Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

7

Source : Bank of Thailand

Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)

40

50

60

Jan 2014

Jul Jan 2015

Jul Jan 2016

Jul Jan 2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)

Jun 19 53.8

Mar 19 .

Business Sentiment Index

Equipment Indicators

Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

Index sa(Jan 2014=100)

Note: E = Estimated Data, All data is in real terms.Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand

Construction Indicators

4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

707580859095

100105

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)

1,000 m2, 9mmaIndex sa(Jan 2014=100)

80100120140160180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

Average 2014-2018 2 2 Billion Baht

Current Expenditure

Source: Comptroller General’s Department and Bank of Thailand

Capital ExpenditureBillion Baht

Central government expenditure(excl. subsidies/grants and miscellaneous other expense)

0

20

40

60

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

Mar-19 139.30 Billion Baht(-1.2% YoY)

Mar-19 47.03 Billion Baht(2.4% YoY)

Billion Baht FY2017 FY2018FY2018P FY2019P

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Feb Mar

Revenue 2 2 2

(%YoY) 2. . . . . . 2. 2. . .

Expenditure1/ 2 2 2 2 2 22

(%YoY) 2.2 . 2.2 . . 2. 2.2 . 2 . .

Budgetary B/L 2 2

Non-Budgetary B/L 2 2 2 2 2

Cash B/L (CG) 2

Primary B/L (CG) 2 2 2 2 2

Net Financing 2 2 2 2

Treasury B/L 2 2 2 2 2 2

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Exclude principal loan repaymentSource: Fiscal Policy Office Comptroller General’s Department Bank of Thailand

Economic and Monetary conditions, March 2019

8

2.3 The global economy and external sector

The current account continued to register a high surplus. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from both the assets and liabilities positions.

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

SG

MYINDOTW

KR

Index sa, 3mma(Jan 2014 = 100)

THCN

PH

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil and gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Asian Export Performance

90

100

110

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

US (Mar) Euro Area* (Feb) Japan (Feb)

G3 Retail Sales

Source: Bloomberg Note: *Volume Index

Index (Jan 2015 = 100)

Import Growth

%YoYShare 2018

2018P

2018P 2019P

H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarMar

(%MoM)

Consumer 10.3 12.2 16.6 7.1 9.2 -1.2 -5.2 -2.8 3.9

Raw material & Intermediate

56.2 18.8 19.5 21.3 14.9 -0.1 -1.9 -4.9 1.1

o/w Fuel 16.3 40.1 36.9 53.1 34.6 7.9 19.1 1.5 6.1

o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel

39.9 11.8 14.1 11.6 7.6 -2.9 -8.8 -7.4 -0.8

Capital 22.8 1.0 5.6 -5.9 -0.6 -9.1 -22.6 -0.8 31.1

Others 10.7 9.0 15.1 35.3 -21.5 10.3 -24.6 -35.2 5.2

Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 14.3 16.6 17.0 7.5 -2.9 -7.3 -5.8 7.5

Ex. Gold 14.9 17.1 14.2 11.9 -0.1 -4.8 -0.4 6.9

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted dataP = Preliminary data

Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value is recorded by BOP basis.

Feb 2019 = 16.2 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 15.8 Bn USD

Mar 2019 = 17.9 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 17.4 Bn USD

%YoYShare 2018

2018P

2018P 2019P

H1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarMar

(%MoM)

Agriculture 7.2 0.1 3.0 1.3 -6.5 -2.0 -8.0 6.6 10.0Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -1.4 -15.4 -6.2 -14.9 -13.7 -20.6 -2.7

Manufacturing 88.9 8.4 12.8 6.7 2.1 -1.5 6.3 -5.7 -9.7

Agro-manufacturing 12.3 6.3 8.5 5.8 2.7 2.1 5.6 4.2 -1.9Electronics 14.8 5.0 12.4 3.6 -6.2 -11.3 -8.4 -17.3 -2.3Electrical

Appliances 5.3 1.7 6.6 -3.4 -3.6 -4.6 -2.8 -5.0 -0.4

Automotive 15.2 8.0 15.3 6.2 -2.9 -3.8 -12.9 5.3 5.9Machinery & Equipment

8.7 6.9 10.3 4.1 3.2 -2.9 -0.9 -5.0 -1.7

Petroleum Related 13.1 22.0 26.5 19.7 16.4 -7.2 -3.7 -9.5 -2.1Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 7.2 12.2 2.8 2.3 -3.6 -1.7 -4.2 0.6

Ex. Gold 7.9 12.7 5.7 1.5 -3.8 -3.0 -4.3 1.2Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related

6.0 10.9 3.8 -0.6 -3.3 -2.9 -3.6 1.7

Export Growth

Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording passing through Customs while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between R and NR.

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data.P = Preliminary data

Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Mar 2019 = 21.5 Bn USD Ex. gold = 21.1 Bn USD

Feb 2019 = 19.6 Bn USD Ex. gold = 19.1 Bn USD

Economic and Monetary conditions, March 2019

9

%YoY (Share in

2018)2018

2018 2019%MoM

saH1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarP

China (27.5%) . 25.9 . . . 2. 2. . .

Malaysia (10.7%) . 4.7 2 . 2 . 2. . . . 2.

Asia ex. China & Malaysia (29.9%)

. 8.8 . . . . . . 2.

Russia (3.8%) . 18.3 . .2 . . . . .

Europe ex. Russia (13.8%)

2. 4.5 .2 . . .2 . . .

Others (14.2%) . 4.7 . 2. . . . . . Total(million persons)

7.5(38.3)

12.2(19.5)

3.1(18.8)

. .

4.3 .

. .

.2(3.6)

. .

.

Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports

Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Total China (share 28%)Malaysia (share 11%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 30%)Europe ex. Russia (share 14%) Russia (share 4%)

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100)

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Inbound Tourists Index

Million USD 2018P 2018P 2019P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1E Feb MarE

1. Assets 2 2 2 TDI 2 2 2 2 2 - Equity 2 22

Thai portfolio investment 2 2 2 - Equity sec. investment 2 2 - Debt sec. investment 2 2 2 2 2

Loans Other investments 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 2 2

2. Liabilities 2 FDI 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 2 2

Foreign portfolio investment 2 2 2 2 - Equity sec. investment 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Debt sec. investment 2 2

Loans 2 2 2 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2

Total financial flows (1+2) 2 2 2 2

Financial Account

Source : Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E= Estimated data

Source : Bank of Thailand E= Estimated data P = Preliminary data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2018P 2018P 2019P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1E Feb MarE

Trade balance 22. . . . . . . .

Exports (f.o.b.) 2 2.2 2 . 2 . . 2. .2 . 2 .

%YoY .2 2.2 2. 2. 2. . . .2

Imports (f.o.b.) 22 . . . . . . .2 .

%YoY . . 2. . . 2. . .

Net services, income & transfers 2. .2 . . 2. . . 2.

Current account .2 2 . . . . . . .

Capital and financial account 22. . . . . .2 . .

Government . . . .2 2. . .2 .

Central bank . . . . . . . .

ODCs . . . 2. . . . .2

Others . . .2 . 2. . . .

Net error & omissions . 2.2 .2 .2 . . 2. .

Overall balance . . . . . . . .

International reserves 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 2.2 2 2. 2 2.2Net forward position . . . . . 2. .2 2.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

10

2.4 Monetary and financial conditions

Commercial Bank Interest Rates*

% p.a. 2017 2018 Q4/18 Q1/19 Feb 19 Mar 19 24 Apr 19

2-month deposit rate

Average of 5 largest Thai banks**

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MLR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

MRR

Average of 5 largest Thai banks

Average of other Thai banks

Average of foreign branches and subsidiary

1.37

1.48

1.11

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.46

8.54

1.37

1.46

1.11

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.46

8.54

1.37

1.46

1.11

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.46

8.54

1.42

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.47

8.54

1.42

1.48

1.18

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.47

8.54

1.42

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.47

8.54

1.42

1.48

1.19

6.28

7.31

7.58

7.19

8.47

8.54

End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya

Source: Bank of Thailand

Note: Data for other depository corporations’ (ODCs) private credit and the ODCs’ private credit extended to households have been revised since January 2016 due to reflect the improvement in the data processing system.Source: Bank of Thailand

Billion baht

New Private Credit Extended by Other Depository Corporations

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Jul-1

7Oc

t-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8Oc

t-18

Jan-

19

MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)

BusinessHousehold

%

Note: Business credits and debt: change in outstanding Equity: new issuance at par value

Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Billion baht

Change in Total Corporate Financing

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar-1

7Ap

r-17

May-

17Ju

n-17

Jul-1

7Au

g-17

Sep-

17Oc

t-17

Nov-

17De

c-17

Jan-

18Fe

b-18

Mar-1

8Ap

r-18

May-

18Ju

n-18

Jul-1

8Au

g-18

Sep-

18Oc

t-18

Nov-

18De

c-18

Jan-

19Fe

b-19

Mar-1

9

Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Sep-

17

Nov-

17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep-

18

Nov-

18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y

Government Bond Yields

Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA

As of 24 April 19

2.56

2.15

1.811.751.70

Total corporate financing increased from the previous month. New credit expanded from both households and businesses credit. As at end of month, both the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar and the NEER depreciated from the previous month.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

11

Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

% p.a.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

30-D

ec-1

624

-Jan-

1715

-Feb

-17

8-M

ar-1

729

-Mar

-17

24-A

pr-1

717

-May

-17

7-Ju

n-17

28-Ju

n-17

20-Ju

l-17

11-A

ug-1

74-

Sep-

1725

-Sep

-17

17-O

ct-1

79-

Nov-

1730

-Nov

-17

25-D

ec-1

717

-Jan-

187-

Feb-

1828

-Feb

-18

22-M

ar-1

817

-Apr

-18

9-M

ay-1

831

-May

-18

21-Ju

n-18

12-Ju

l-18

6-Au

g-18

28-A

ug-1

818

-Sep

-18

9-Oc

t-18

1-No

v-18

22-N

ov-1

817

-Dec

-18

9-Ja

n-19

30-Ja

n-19

21-F

eb-1

914

-Mar

-19

4-Ap

r-19

THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP

As of 24 Apr 2019

Regional Exchange Rate Volatility

Changes in Trading Partners’ Currencies per USD

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: End-period data, + = Appreciation against USD

-2.1%-1.8% -1.6%

-1.2% -1.1%-0.7%

-0.5% -0.4% -0.4%-0.1% 0.0%

0.0%

2.8%

-0.6%

0.9%

0.0%

1.0%

-1.3%-0.8%

-0.2%0.0%

-1.1%

-0.1% -0.1%

-1.0% -0.9%

-2.5%

-1.5%

-0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

GBP PHP EUR IDR KRW THB SGD CNY MYR TWD VND JPY INR

end of Mar 19 compared to end of Feb 1924 Apr 19 compared to end of Mar 19

30.5

31.5

32.5

33.5

34.5

35.5

36.5100102104106108110112114116118120122124

30-D

ec-1

6

15-F

eb-1

7

29-M

ar-1

7

17-M

ay-1

7

28-Ju

n-17

11-A

ug-1

7

25-S

ep-1

7

09-N

ov-1

7

25-D

ec-1

7

7-Fe

b-18

22-M

ar-1

8

9-M

ay-1

8

21-Ju

n-18

6-Au

g-18

18-S

ep-1

8

1-No

v-18

17-D

ec-1

8

30-Ja

n-19

14-M

ar-1

9

NEER25

USDTHB (RHS)

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Exchange Rates

Index (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)

Appreciation

24 Apr 2 9USDTHB = 31.99NEER25 = 119.08

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

12

2.5 Financial stability

External Stability Indicators

Criteria 2018P2018P 2019P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarE

Solvency Indicators Current Account / GDP (%) Debt / GDP (%) < / Debt / XGS1/ (%) < / Debt Service Ratio (%) 6.6 6.5

Liquidity Indicators

Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times ST Debt / Total Debt (%)

Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)

Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

External Debt Outstanding

Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF

Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data

Billion USD 2018P 2018P 2019P

Change Mar19-Feb19

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb MarE Total1. General government . 24.8 . 2 .2 . .2 . .2 .52. Central Bank* . 5.4 . 5. . . . . . 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) . 35.0 . 5. . . . . . 4. Other Sectors .5 89.1 .5 . .5 . .2 . .

- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) .5 16.1 .5 .5 .5 . . . . - Non Financial Corporations (NFC) 2. 73.0 2. . 2. . . . . O/W Foreign Trade Credit 2 . 26.5 2 . 25.5 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . .2

5. Total . 154.3 . 5 .2 . . 2. . . Short-term (%) . 43.0 . . . . . . Long-term (%) . 57.0 . 5 . . . . .

80859095

100105110115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Total Agriculture (31%) Manufacturing (17%)Construction (6%) Trade (17%) Service (29%)

Employment Index

Note: Data from 2014 onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing Census.( ) denotes share in total employment

Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014=100)

0.5

1.0

1.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Unemployment Rate

Mar 19Unemployment rate 0.9 %Unemployment rate (sa) 0.8 %

%

Note: Data from 2014 onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing CensusSource: Labor Force Survey, NSO

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Rent (19.62%)Food and Beverage ex. Alcohol (28.17%)Other Goods and Services (52.21%)

Mar 19Core Inflation 0.58%

Contribution to Core Inflation

Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

%YoY

( ) Share in Core Inflation

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Fresh Food (15.69%) Energy (11.75%) Core Inflation (72.56%)( ) Share in Headline Inflation

Mar 19Headline Inflation 1.24%

Source: Ministry of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

%YoY

Contribution to Headline Inflation

Headline inflation accelerated due to the increase in retail petroleum prices, in line with the rise in global crude oil prices, and increase in fresh food prices. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained the same from the previous month. The overall external stability remained strong and resilient to withstand volatility in the global financial markets.

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

13

3. Link to related statistics and contents

Agricultural sector

Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices

Agricultural production: Agricultural products

More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th Manufacturing sector

Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)

Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate

More information: Office of Industrial Economics www.oie.go.th Real estate sector

Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)

More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/ Public finance

Central government revenue: Government revenue

Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)

Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)

More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th Labor market

Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)

Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)

Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)

More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

14

Inflation

Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)

More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th

Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index

Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report

Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey

Economic and Monetary Conditions, March 2019

15

Contact

Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637

Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650

Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300

Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096

Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647

Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639

Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877

The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147

External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726

Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186

Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090

Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645

Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098

External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636