economic and monetary conditions july 2020...economic and monetary conditions, july 2020 1 1....
TRANSCRIPT
Monetary Policy Group August 2020
https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/PressRelease/Pages/default.aspx
Economic and Monetary Conditions July 2020
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
Content 1 Executive Summary 1
2 The Thai Economy 3
2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector
2.2 Domestic Demand 5 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position
2.3 The global economy and external sector 7 The global economy External sector Balance of payments
2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 9 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates
2.5 Financial stability 11 Inflation Labor market Stability and financial condition of corporate sector External stability
3 Link to related statistics and contents 14
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
1
1. Executive Summary
In July 2020, the Thai economy continued to improve driven by public spending and the relaxation of lockdown measures both in Thailand and abroad. Private consumption indicators, merchandise exports value, and manufacturing production exhibited lighter contractions. However, investment conditions remained vulnerable reflected by private investment indicators contracting deeper. Meanwhile, the tourism sector persistently experienced severe contraction due to travel restrictions on foreign tourist arrivals.
On the economic stability front, headline inflation recorded a softer negative, mainly from higher core inflation after some of the government’ s relief measures expired. Labor market somewhat improved consistent with the economic activities. Nonetheless, overall employment condition remained weak. The current account turned surplus mainly contributed by gold exports. Meanwhile, the capital and financial accounts were nearly balanced.
Details of the economic conditions are as follows: Private consumption indicators marked softer contractions as compared to the previous month.
Improvement in almost all spending categories were seen as lockdown measures were eased coupled with a temporary factor of extended weekends relatively more than last year partly due to the announcement of a substitute holiday for Songkran festival that was postponed from April. In addition, recovery in labor market, household income and consumer confidence motivated consumers to travel and spend more.
The value of merchandise exports contracted by 11. 9 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, the value of merchandise exports contracted by 14.3 percent. Both numbers showed a lesser contraction relative to the previous month as exports in several categories improved such as automotive and parts, machinery and equipment and electronics, in line with the resumption of economic activities in trading partner countries after lockdown measures were eased in various parts of the world. Manufacturing production contracted at a lower rate in almost all categories, aligning with the uptick in merchandise exports and private consumption.
Private investment indicators contracted at a higher rate as compared to the previous month from investment in machinery and equipment; weighed down by imports of capital goods, the number of newly registered motor vehicles, as well as domestic machinery and equipment sales. The weakening was a result of domestic and external demand still in the early stage of recovery, significant excess production capacity, and high economic uncertainty. However, investment in construction expanded slightly due to construction material sales, reversing the contraction last month.
The value of merchandise imports contracted by 25. 4 percent from the same period last year, sharper contractions in all categories of products as compared to the previous month. This was partly due to a discontinuity of low base effect last year for crude oil and capital imports. Though firmed up recently, subdued domestic and external demand still undermined imports.
The number of foreign tourist arrivals continued to contract severely at 100 percent from the same period last year. Thailand received no foreign tourist arrivals for the fourth consecutive months as international travel restrictions remained in place.
Public spending, excluding transfers, continued to expand from the same period last year, attributed by marked expansion in capital expenditures both from the central government and state enterprises. However, current expenditures contracted slightly due to purchases on goods and services.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
2
Overall economic stability headline inflation recorded a softer negative, mainly from higher core inflation after some of the government’ s relief measures expired. Labor market somewhat improved, reflected by a decline in the number of workers registered for the temporary suspension of business (section 75) , consistent with the recovery in economic activities. Nonetheless, overall employment condition remained weak. The current account turned surplus attributed to a larger surplus in trade balance led by gold exports value. Meanwhile, the capital and financial accounts were close to being balanced.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
3
2.1 Supply
Farm income turned into expansion from the same period last year mainly as a result of an increase in agricultural prices. Manufacturing production kept contracting at a slower pace, corresponding to the improvements of exports and private consumption indicators. Services sector contracted less due to the relaxation of lockdown measures, domestic tourism stimulus package launched by the government and extended weekends relatively more than last year.
Real Farm IncomeIndex sa (Jan 2014 = 100)
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
60708090
100110120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mmaFarm Income(%YoY) 2 1
2 1 2 2
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun Jul
Nominal farm incomeP 1.5 2.1 1.2 -6.7 -6.2 -6.1 -2.2 3.4
Agricultural productionP -0.4 1.2 -1.6 -10.0 -13.8 -4.8 2.4 1.4
Agricultural price
1.8 0.8 2. 3.6 8.8 -1.4 -4.5 2.0
Nominal Farm Income
Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20
(%YoY)Share2016R 2019
2019 2020
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun JulP%MoM
sa
Food & Beverages 1 . . . 1. . 11. . . . . Automotives 1 . . 2.1 12. 2. 1 . . . .2 1 . - Passenger Cars . . . 1 . . 1 . .1 . . 2 .1- Commercial Vehicles .2 . 2. 1 . 2.2 1 . .2 . . . - Engine 1. . . 1 .2 . 1 . . 2. . 2 . Petroleum . . .2 11. . . 1 . 1 . .1 1. Chemicals .2 .2 . 1.1 . .2 .2 . 2. . Rubbers & Plastics . .2 . . 1 . . 1 .2 1 .2 1 . .2Cement & Construction . 1.2 .2 2. 1. 1.2 . . . 1. IC & Semiconductors . . .1 . 2. . . 1 . . 2. Electrical Appliances . . . . 1 .1 . 2. 1 . .2 1 . Textiles & Apparels . .2 . . 1 . . 2 . 2 . 2 . . Hard Disk Drive . . 1 . . 1. . . 2. . . Others 1 . . . . 1 . . 1 . 1 . 1 . . MPI 1 . . 1. . 12. . 2 . 1 . 1 . . MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod
1 . 2. .1 . . 1 . . .
Capacity Utilization (SA) . . . .2 .1 . . .
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
MPI Classified by Export Share
405060708090
100110120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Jul
Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%
Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand
1.6 %
13.0 %
5.0 %
%MoM sa
(%)Share2016R
2019 2020
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jun JulP
Food & Beverages 1 . . . . . .1 . .
Automotives 1 . . . 1.2 . 2 . . .
Petroleum . 2. . . . .2 . .1
Chemicals .2 . . . .2 . .1 .
Rubbers & Plastics . . . . . . .2 .
Cement & Construction . . . . .2 1. . .
IC & Semiconductors . . . 1.1 . .1 . .
Electrical Appliances . 1. . . 2. 2. 1. .2
Textiles & Apparels . . . 2. . . . .
Hard Disk Drive . .2 2. 1. 1. . . .
Others 1 . . . .1 . . . 1.2
CAPU sa 1 . . . . .1 . . .
Capacity Utilization (sa)
Source: Office of Industrial Economics
Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data
75
85
95
105
115
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Jul
Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
** As the data from April to June 2020 was not published, the index was estimated from the Q2 2020 data.
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production
Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand
%MoM sa
3.5 %
5.8 %Jun = -2.1 %**
* The latest month was estimated by the BOT
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
4
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 17%)Market Services (share 83%)
Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports
0
50
100
150
200
250
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Trade (32%) Finance (14%)Professional Services (4%) Transport (8%)Information (5%) Hotel & Restaurant (10%, RHS)
Service Production Index (SPI) by SectorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
5
2.2 Domestic Demand
Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector
** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroadSource: Bank of Thailand
020406080100120140160180
8090
100110120130140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100
Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**
90100110120130140150160
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Nielsen’s FMCG Index excl. alcohol and tobacco sa, 3mma
Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel IndexJan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100
Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Semi-durable Index sa,3mma
Durable Index sa, 3mma
Jan 2014 = 100Durable and Semi-durable Indices
Source: Bank of Thailand
Private consumption indicators marked softer contractions from the previous month. This was a result of the relaxation of lockdown measures improving economic activities, and coupled with a temporary factor of extended weekends relatively more than last year. However, private investment indicators contracted at a higher rate as compared to the previous month from investment in machinery and equipment. Meanwhile, public spending, excluding transfers, continued to expand from the same period last year, attributed by marked expansion in capital expenditures.
%YoY 20192019 2020
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun JulP%MoM
saNon-durables index 2.2 3.1 1.3 -2.7 1.2 -6.8 -3.0 -1.3 1.6Semi-durables index 0.5 1.2 -0.1 -3.7 -1.7 -5.7 -4.0 -5.7 -0.1Durables index -2.0 2.7 -6.2 -20.4 -12.0 -29.1 -18.9 -15.7 8.4Services index 2.9 3.1 2.6 -19.0 -10.0 -28.1 -23.9 -22.8 1.8(less) Net tourist expenditure 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -60.6 -43.3 -87.2 -88.6 -92.4 -44.0
PCI 2.5 3.5 1.6 -4.2 2.1 -10.3 -4.5 -0.1 2.7
Private Consumption Indicators
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
30405060708090
100
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years
Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)
Average 5 years = 76.2
Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand
% YoY 2019 2020
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun JulP %MoM
Permitted Construction Area (9mma) 3. . .3 . . . . . .
Construction Materials Index . . . . .3 . 3. . .
Real Imports of Capital Goods . . . . . . . . .
Real Domestic Machinery Sales . 3. . .3 . .3 .3 . .
Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment 3. . . . . . . . .
Private Investment Index . . . . . . . . .
Private Investment Indicators
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
6
Investment in Construction1,000 m2
9mmaIndex sa
(Jan 2014=100)
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand
4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000
70
80
90
100
110
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)3 per. Mov. Avg. (Construction Materials Index)
Investment in Machinery and EquipmentIndex sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment
Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment
Fiscal Position (Cash basis)Billion baht FY2018 FY2019
FY2019 FY2020Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 May Jun Jul
Revenue , 3 , 3 3 3 (%YoY) . . .3 . . . . 3 . 3 . 3 . . Expenditure1/ , , 3(%YoY) 3. 3. . . . 3. . . . . . Budgetary B/L 3 3 Non-Budgetary B/L 3 Cash B/L (CG) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Primary balance 2/ 3 3 3 3 33 Net Financing 3 3 Treasury B/L 33 3 3 3 3 3 3
Source : Bank of Thailand
Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)
30
40
50
60
Jan 2014
Jul Jan 2015
Jul Jan 2016
Jul Jan 2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Jul
BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)
Oct 20 48.6
Jul 2042.9
Business Sentiment Index
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020
State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht
Jul17.2%
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
010203040506070
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Billion baht
Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand
Jul-3.8%
Jul50.0%
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
7
85
95
105
115
125
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
US (Jul) Euro Area* (Jun) Japan (Jun)
G3 Retail Sales
Note: *Volume Index Source: Bloomberg
Index (Jan 2015 = 100)
Jul 20
2.3 The Global Economy and External Sector
The current account turned surplus attributed to a larger surplus in trade balance led by gold exports value. The capital and financial accounts were close to being balanced.
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
%YoYShare 2019
2019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun JulJul
(%MoM)
Agriculture . . . . . . .2 . . . Fishery . . 2. .2 . . 2. . . . Manufacturing . . . .2 . . 2 . . .2 .2
Agro-manufacturing 2. .2 2.2 2. . . 2.2 2. 2. . Electronics . . . . . . . . 2. .
Electrical Appliances . . . . . . . . 2.2 .
Automotive . . .2 . 2 . .2 . . 2 . . Machinery & Equipment . .2 . . . . 2 . 22. . .
Petroleum Related . . . . . . 2 . . 22. .2Total (BOP Basis) . . . 2. .2 . . 2 . . .
Ex. Gold . . . 2. .2 2 . . . . Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related . . 2. . 2. 2 . . . .
Export ValueJun 2020 = 16.1 Bn USD
Ex. gold = 15.8 Bn USD
Jul 2020 = 18.5 Bn USD
Ex. gold = 16.9 Bn USD
%YoYShare 2019
2019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun JulJul
(%MoM)
Consumer .2 . . . . . . . . . Raw material & Intermediate . .2 . . . . 2 . . 2 . .2
o/w Fuel . 2. . 22. 2 . . . 2. . . o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel . . . .2 .2 2. .2 . . .2
Capital 2 . 2.2 . 2. .2 . . . 2 . 2.
Others . . . . 2 . . . . . .2
Total (BOP Basis) . . . . 2. . 2 . .2 2 . .
Ex. Gold . 2. . . . 2 . . 2 . .
Ex.Gold&Fuel 2. 2. 2. . . . . 2 . .
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
Import ValueJul 2020 = 14.4 Bn USD
Ex.Gold = 14.3 Bn USD
Jun 2020 = 13.8 Bn USD
Ex.Gold = 13.4 Bn USD
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
PH
IDMY
TH
TWCN
SG
KR
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
8
%YoY (Share in 2019)
20192019 2020
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun JulP
China (27.6%) . . . . . . . .
Malaysia (10.5%) . . . . 2. . . .
Asia ex. China & Malaysia (30.4%)
. . . . . . . .
Russia (3.7%) . . . 2 . . . . .
Europe ex. Russia (13.2%)
. . . .2 . . . .
India (5.0%) 2 . 2 . 2 . . . . . .
Others (9.6%) . . . . .2 . . . Total(million persons)
.2 (39.8)
. (19.8)
. (20.0)
.2(6.7)
. (6.7)
. (0.0)
. (0.0)
. (0.0)
Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin
Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports
Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun JulE YTD1. Assets 2 2 2 2 2 TDI 2 2 2 2 2- Equity 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2
Thai portfolio investment 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Equity security investment 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Debt security investment 2
Loans 22 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2 2 2
2. Liabilities 2 2 FDI 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Foreign portfolio investment 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Equity security investment 2 2 - Debt security investment 2 2 2 2 2 2
Loans 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2
Total financial flows (1+2) 2 2
Net Financial Flows
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Balance of Payments
Billion USD 2019P201 P 2020P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun JulE YTDTrade Balance 2 . 2. . . . . 2. . 2 .2Exports (f.o.b.) 2 2. 2 . 22. . . . . . 2 .2
%YoY . . 2. .2 . . 2 . . . Imports (f.o.b.) 2 . . . . 2. . . . .
%YoY . . . 2. . 2 . .2 2 . . Net Services, Income & Transfers . .2 . . . . 2. 2. . Current Account . . 2 . . . . .2 . . Capital and Financial Account . . . . . . 2. . . Overall Balance . . . . . . . 2. .2
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)
Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)
Tourists Classified by Nationality
Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Jul 20
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
9
2.4 Monetary and Financial Conditions
Total corporate financing increased compared with the previous month. New loans extended to private sector increased mainly from the previous month due to household loans. The monthly average of Thai baht against the U.S. dollar in July 2020 and the NEER depreciated compared with the previous month.
Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;
(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET
Billion baht
Changes in Total Corporate Financing
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Jul-1
8
Oct-1
8
Jan-
19
Apr-1
9
Jul-1
9
Oct-1
9
Jan-
20
Apr-2
0
Jul-2
0
Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA
Jul 20P
Note: net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others.
Billion baht Net Changes in Outstanding Loans
-1.4
-0.8
-0.2
0.4
1.0
1.6
2.2
2.8
3.4
-140-100-60-202060
100140180220260300340
Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8Oc
t-18
Jan-
19Ap
r-19
Jul-1
9Oc
t-19
Jan-
20Ap
r-20
Jul-2
0Ja
n-17
Apr-1
7Ju
l-17
Oct-1
7Ja
n-18
Apr-1
8Ju
l-18
Oct-1
8Ja
n-19
Apr-1
9Ju
l-19
Oct-1
9Ja
n-20
Apr-2
0Ju
l-20
MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)
BusinessHousehold
%
Commercial Bank Interest Rates*
End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya
Source: Bank of Thailand
% p.a.2019 2020
Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Jul 20 25 Aug 20
2-month deposit rate
Average of 5 largest Thai banks**
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
MLR
Average of 5 largest Thai banks
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
MRR
Average of 5 largest Thai banks
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
1.42
1.48
1.19
6.28
7.22
7.58
7.19
7.93
8.54
1.46
1.48
1.19
6.28
7.22
7.58
7.19
7.96
8.54
1.4
1.
1.1
6.28
7.22
7.58
7.79
8.54
1.33
1.51
1.11
6.08
7.19
7.59
7.73
8.44
0.75
1.26
0.84
5.93
7.13
7.41
.64
7.66
8.32
0.49
0.99
0.60
5.36
6.71
6.91
6.00
7.12
7.89
0.49
0.93
0.60
5.36
6.71
6.91
6.00
7.12
7.89
0.49
0.90
0.58
5.36
6.71
6.91
6.00
7.12
7.890.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Jul-1
8
Oct-1
8
Jan-
19
Apr-1
9
Jul-1
9
Oct-1
9
Jan-
20
Apr-2
0
Jul-2
0
1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y
Government Bond Yields
Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA
As of 25 Aug 20
0.50
0.870.50
1.40
0.48
%
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
10
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
35.0
36.0108110112114116118120122124126128130132
29-D
ec-1
7
16-F
eb-1
8
5-Ap
r-18
28-M
ay-1
8
13-Ju
l-18
3-Se
p-18
19-O
ct-1
8
7-De
c-18
28-Ja
n-19
15-M
ar-1
9
8-M
ay-1
9
26-Ju
n-19
14-A
ug-1
9
30-S
ep-1
9
18-N
ov-1
9
8-Ja
n-20
25-F
eb-2
0
13-A
pr-2
0
2-Ju
n-20
21-Ju
l-20
NEER25
USDTHB (RHS)
Note: Monthly average rate Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Exchange RatesIndex (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)
Appreciation
Aug 2 2 USDTHB = 31.21NEER25 = 122.31
As of 25 Aug 2020
-2.8%
-0.9%
0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0%1.0%
1.3% 1.5%
-1.4%
0.7%
0.0%
1.8%1.3% 0.9% 1.1%
0.1%
3.6%
0.2%
1.0% 1.2%
3.3%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
IDR THB VND MYR SGD JPY KRW TWD GBP INR CNY PHP EUR
Avg of Jul 20 compared to avg of Jun 20
Avg of Aug 20 compared to avg of Jul 20
Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD
Exchange Rate Movement Aug 2020(Average data
until 25 Aug 2020)
Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand
% p.a.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
29-D
ec-1
730
-Jan-
1827
-Feb
-18
28-M
ar-1
830
-Apr
-18
30-M
ay-1
827
-Jun-
1825
-Jul-1
827
-Aug
-18
24-S
ep-1
824
-Oct
-18
21-N
ov-1
821
-Dec
-18
22-Ja
n-19
20-F
eb-1
920
-Mar
-19
22-A
pr-1
923
-May
-19
21-Ju
n-19
19-Ju
l-19
20-A
ug-1
917
-Sep
-19
16-O
ct-1
914
-Nov
-19
16-D
ec-1
915
-Jan-
2013
-Feb
-20
12-M
ar-2
010
-Apr
-20
13-M
ay-2
011
-Jun-
2010
-Jul-2
011
-Aug
-20
HKD THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD
As of 25 Aug 2020
Regional Exchange Rate Volatility
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
11
2.5 Financial Stability
1
Headline inflation recorded a softer negative, mainly from higher core inflation. Labor market somewhat improved, in line with the economic activities. External stability remained resilient, providing sufficient cushion against global financial market volatility.
00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.8
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Lay-Off Claims (RHS) account for 27% of total jobless claims**
Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33
%, SA %, SA
Jobless Claims
Note: Employees who contribute to social security system (Section ) account for % of total employment.
** 2020, 7-month averageSource: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)
Headline inflation contribution%YoY
Jul-0.98%
( ) Share in Headline Inflation
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
Core inflation contribution%YoY
Jul0.39%( ) Share in Core Inflation
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20
OtherTransportationTradeHotel & TourismRestaurant & RecreationOther ManufacturingElectronicRubbers & PlasticsAutomotives
Lost Working Hours Index (Man-Month*) from the Temporary Suspension of Business (Section 75**)
Man
-Mon
th (1
,000
Wor
kers-
Mon
th
Note: * Man-Month = Number of workers x ( Number of missing working days in a month / Number of days in a month)** The Section 75 number is calculated by summarizing firms and employees
reported to the Ministry of Labour for the temporary suspension of business.Source: Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, Ministry of Labour, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
12
-2.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Telecom Transport Overall
OPM P50 RoA P50 (RHS)Percentage Percentage
Return on Assets and Operating Profit Margin by Sectors
Note: 50th percentile, *Manufacturing excludes petroleum and petrochemical, Services include Hotel, Education and Hospital .Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand
Interest Coverage Ratio by Sectors
Note: 50th percentile, *Manufacturing exclude petroleum and petrochemical, Services include Hotel, Education and Hospital.Source: Stock Exchange of Thailand; calculation by Bank of Thailand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
61 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Q1/
61 Q
3/61
Q1/
62 Q
3/62
Q1/
63
Commerce Construction Manufacturing* Petroleum Real Estates Services Telecom Transport Overall
ICR P50 D/E P50 (RHS)Times Times
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
13
External Stability Indicators
Criteria 2019P2019P 2020P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun JulE
Solvency Indicators Current Account / GDP (%) Debt / GDP (%) < /
Debt / XGS1/ (%) < / Debt Service Ratio (%)
Liquidity Indicators
Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time
Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times ST Debt / Total Debt (%)
Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)
Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data
External Debt Outstanding
Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data
Billion USD 2019P 2019P 2020P Change Jul20-Jun20H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 Jun JulE
1. General government .2 . .2 . 2 . . . .2 .22. Central Bank* . 5. . .2 2.5 .2 .2 2. .53. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) . . . .5 . .5 .5 . . 4. Other Sectors 5. .5 5. .5 .5 .5 .5 .2 .
- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) . . . . . . . 2 . . - Non Financial Corporations (NFC) 5. .5 5. . . . . . . O/W Foreign Trade Credit 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 .5 2 .2 2 .5 2 .5 2 . .
5. Total . . . . 5.5 . . . . Short-term (%) 5. .5 5. . . . . 5. Long-term (%) 5. 2.5 5. . . . . .
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
14
3. Link to related statistics and contents
Agricultural sector
Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices
Agricultural production: Agricultural products
More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th Manufacturing sector
Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)
Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate
More information: Office of Industrial Economics http://www.oie.go.th/view/1/Home/EN-US
Real estate sector
Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)
More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/
Public finance
Central government revenue: Government revenue
Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)
Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)
More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th Labor market
Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)
Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)
Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)
More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
15
Inflation
Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)
More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th
Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand
Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index
Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report
Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey
Economic and Monetary Conditions, July 2020
16
Contact
Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637
Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650
Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300
Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096
Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647
Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639
Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877
The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147
External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726
Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186
Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090
Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645
Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098
Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098
External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636